Pub Date : 2026-02-07DOI: 10.1186/s12879-026-12720-0
Chidozie W Chukwu
In this paper, we present a novel compartmental model to capture the transmission dynamics of measles, incorporating both single- and double-dose vaccination strategies. The model accounts for differential vaccine efficacies between partially and fully vaccinated individuals, providing a more realistic representation of population immunity. To quantify and forecast the future trajectory of measles in Texas, we calibrated our model using the 2025 measles outbreak data from Texas, USA, from January 20 to May 27, 2025. In addition, we employed time series forecasting approaches, Facebook Prophet and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), to predict daily new measles cases. Results from the forecasting analysis reveal that the Prophet model outperformed the GRU model based on standard performance metrics. Both models suggest that measles will persist in Texas with an estimated average of 1-2 (95% CI, 1-2 ), daily new cases per day until August 30, 2025, unless additional public health interventions are implemented. Our findings highlight the importance of achieving and maintaining high vaccination coverage to prevent future outbreaks and mitigate the long-term risk of endemic measles. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and health authorities aiming to strengthen measles control strategies in both endemic and non-endemic regions of Texas, USA.Clinical trialNot applicable.
{"title":"Forecasting and quantifying the role of vaccination strategies in the 2025 Texas measles outbreak: a modeling and time series analysis approach.","authors":"Chidozie W Chukwu","doi":"10.1186/s12879-026-12720-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-026-12720-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we present a novel compartmental model to capture the transmission dynamics of measles, incorporating both single- and double-dose vaccination strategies. The model accounts for differential vaccine efficacies between partially and fully vaccinated individuals, providing a more realistic representation of population immunity. To quantify and forecast the future trajectory of measles in Texas, we calibrated our model using the 2025 measles outbreak data from Texas, USA, from January 20 to May 27, 2025. In addition, we employed time series forecasting approaches, Facebook Prophet and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), to predict daily new measles cases. Results from the forecasting analysis reveal that the Prophet model outperformed the GRU model based on standard performance metrics. Both models suggest that measles will persist in Texas with an estimated average of 1-2 (95% CI, 1-2 ), daily new cases per day until August 30, 2025, unless additional public health interventions are implemented. Our findings highlight the importance of achieving and maintaining high vaccination coverage to prevent future outbreaks and mitigate the long-term risk of endemic measles. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and health authorities aiming to strengthen measles control strategies in both endemic and non-endemic regions of Texas, USA.Clinical trialNot applicable.</p>","PeriodicalId":8981,"journal":{"name":"BMC Infectious Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146137149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Post-pandemic resurgence of Mycoplasma pneumoniae in coastal China: from seasonal waves to sustained transmission and expanded age susceptibility.","authors":"Jinwei Zhu, Suqing Wu, Tianfu Xu, Bijuan Zheng, Yan Chen, Yushan Zhuang","doi":"10.1186/s12879-026-12790-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-026-12790-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":8981,"journal":{"name":"BMC Infectious Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146137124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-07DOI: 10.1186/s12879-026-12771-3
Lin Yang, Yan Zheng, Min Ke, Xiaomin Chen
{"title":"Retinal toxicity induced by intravitreal ganciclovir injection: case series and systematic review.","authors":"Lin Yang, Yan Zheng, Min Ke, Xiaomin Chen","doi":"10.1186/s12879-026-12771-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-026-12771-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":8981,"journal":{"name":"BMC Infectious Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146137183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Prevalence of herpes zoster in individuals who have received COVID-19 vaccine and/or had COVID-19: a cross-sectional study.","authors":"Nebiha Gozde Ispir, Umut Pamukcu, Ahmet Hursit Ispir, Ilkay Peker, Meryem Toraman","doi":"10.1186/s12879-026-12547-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-026-12547-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":8981,"journal":{"name":"BMC Infectious Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146137196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Necrotizing fasciitis caused by Actinomyces europaeus: a case report and literature review.","authors":"Ruifeng Qi, Jinxiang Dong, Hongyue Pan, Mingliang Ma, Zhigang Wang, Nan Zhou","doi":"10.1186/s12879-026-12777-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-026-12777-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":8981,"journal":{"name":"BMC Infectious Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146137135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Systemic immune-inflammation (SII) index as a novel prognostic biomarker in critically ill patients with sepsis: analysis of the MIMIC-IV cohort and predictive modeling based on machine learning.","authors":"Xudong Zhang, Yiquan Xu, Yu Lei, Miaomiao Tang, Yanqing Wang, Jianghui Luo, Shuying Zhu","doi":"10.1186/s12879-026-12703-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-026-12703-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":8981,"journal":{"name":"BMC Infectious Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146137130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-07DOI: 10.1186/s12879-026-12786-w
Long Wang, Xianglan Fang, Liuliu Shi, Peng Wang, Wei Chen, Jin Yang, Yan Ding, Zheng Cao, Duoshuang Xie, Kun Meng
{"title":"Identification and optimized detection of two type 2 diabetes-associated enteric pathogens: Klebsiella and EPEC.","authors":"Long Wang, Xianglan Fang, Liuliu Shi, Peng Wang, Wei Chen, Jin Yang, Yan Ding, Zheng Cao, Duoshuang Xie, Kun Meng","doi":"10.1186/s12879-026-12786-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-026-12786-w","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":8981,"journal":{"name":"BMC Infectious Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146130941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-06DOI: 10.1186/s12879-026-12793-x
Mohammad Hashemzadeh, Sadegh Hamid, Azar Dokht Khosravi, Saman Soleimanpour, Mohammad Savari
{"title":"Association between overexpression of efflux pumps genes Rv0191 and Rv3008 and pyrazinamide resistance in multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis: a multi-center study.","authors":"Mohammad Hashemzadeh, Sadegh Hamid, Azar Dokht Khosravi, Saman Soleimanpour, Mohammad Savari","doi":"10.1186/s12879-026-12793-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-026-12793-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":8981,"journal":{"name":"BMC Infectious Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146130905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号