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Recruiting participants for focus groups in health research: a meta-research study. 招募健康研究焦点小组的参与者:一项元研究研究。
IF 3.9 3区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-01-14 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-025-02464-x
Jonas Lander, Simon Wallraf, Dawid Pieper, Ronny Klawunn, Hala Altawil, Marie-Luise Dierks, Cosima John

Background: Focus groups (FGs) are an established method in health research to capture a full range of different perspectives on a particular research question. The extent to which they are effective depends, not least, on the composition of the participants. This study aimed to investigate how published FG studies plan and conduct the recruitment of study participants. We looked at what kind of information is reported about recruitment practices and what this reveals about the comprehensiveness of the actual recruitment plans and practices.

Methods: We conducted a systematic search of FG studies in PubMed and Web of Science published between 2018 and 2024, and included n = 80 eligible publications in the analysis. We used a text extraction sheet to collect all relevant recruitment information from each study. We then coded the extracted text passages and summarised the findings descriptively.

Results: Nearly half (n = 38/80) of the studies were from the USA and Canada, many addressing issues related to diabetes, cancer, mental health and chronic diseases. For recruitment planning, 20% reported a specific sampling target, while 6% used existing studies or literature for organisational and content planning. A further 10% reported previous recruitment experience of the researchers. The studies varied in terms of number of participants (range = 7-202) and group size (range = 7-20). Recruitment occurred often in healthcare settings, rarely through digital channels and everyday places. FG participants were most commonly recruited by the research team (21%) or by health professionals (16%), with less collaboration with public organisations (10%) and little indication of the number of people involved (13%). A financial incentive for participants was used in 43% of cases, and 19% reported participatory approaches to plan and carry out recruitment. 65 studies (81%) reported a total of 58 limitations related to recruitment.

Conclusions: The reporting of recruitment often seems to be incomplete, and its performance lacking. Hence, guidelines and recruitment recommendations designed to assist researchers are not yet adequately serving their purpose. Researchers may benefit from more practical support, such as early training on key principles and options for effective recruitment strategies provided by institutions in their immediate professional environment, e.g. universities, faculties or scientific associations.

背景:焦点小组(FGs)是卫生研究中的一种既定方法,用于捕获对特定研究问题的全方位不同观点。它们的有效程度不仅取决于参与者的构成。本研究旨在探讨已发表的FG研究如何计划和招募研究参与者。我们研究了关于招聘实践的哪些信息被报道,以及这些信息揭示了实际招聘计划和实践的全面性。方法:系统检索2018年至2024年间发表在PubMed和Web of Science上的FG研究,纳入n = 80篇符合条件的论文。我们使用文本提取表收集每个研究的所有相关招募信息。然后,我们对提取的文本段落进行编码,并对结果进行描述性总结。结果:近一半(n = 38/80)的研究来自美国和加拿大,许多研究涉及与糖尿病、癌症、心理健康和慢性病相关的问题。对于招聘计划,20%的人报告了一个特定的抽样目标,而6%的人使用现有的研究或文献进行组织和内容规划。另有10%的人报告了之前招募研究人员的经历。这些研究在参与者人数(范围= 7-202)和小组规模(范围= 7-20)方面有所不同。招聘通常发生在医疗机构,很少通过数字渠道和日常场所。FG参与者通常是由研究小组(21%)或卫生专业人员(16%)招募的,与公共组织的合作较少(10%),很少表明参与人数(13%)。43%的案例采用了对参与者的经济激励,19%的案例采用了参与式方法来计划和实施招聘。65项研究(81%)报告了与招募相关的58项限制。结论:招聘的报道往往显得不完整,缺乏实效性。因此,旨在帮助研究人员的指导方针和招聘建议尚未充分服务于其目的。研究人员可以从更实际的支持中受益,例如在其直接的专业环境中,如大学、学院或科学协会,机构提供的关于关键原则和有效招聘策略选择的早期培训。
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引用次数: 0
Survival parametric modeling for patients with heart failure based on Kernel learning. 基于核学习的心衰患者生存参数建模。
IF 3.9 3区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-01-11 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-024-02455-4
Maryam Montaseri, Mansour Rezaei, Armin Khayati, Shayan Mostafaei, Mohammad Taheri

Time-to-event data are very common in medical applications. Regression models have been developed on such data especially in the field of survival analysis. Kernels are used to handle even more complicated and enormous quantities of medical data by injecting non-linearity into linear models. In this study, a Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) method has been proposed to optimize survival outcomes under the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model, a useful alternative to the Proportional Hazards (PH) frailty model. In other words, a survival parametric regression framework has been presented for clinical data to effectively integrate kernel learning with AFT model using a gradient descent optimization strategy. This methodology involves applying four different parametric models, evaluated using 19 distinct kernels to extract the best fitting scenario. This culminated in a sophisticated strategy that combined these kernels through MKL. We conducted a comparison between the Frailty model and MKL due to their shared fundamental properties. The models were assessed using the Concordance index (C-index) and Brier score (B-score). Each model was tested on both a case study and a replicated/independent dataset. The outcomes showed that kernelization enhances the performance of the model, especially by combining selected kernels for MKL.

时间到事件数据在医疗应用中非常常见。针对这些数据,特别是在生存分析领域,已经建立了回归模型。通过将非线性注入线性模型,核函数被用于处理更复杂和大量的医疗数据。在这项研究中,提出了一种多核学习(MKL)方法来优化加速失效时间(AFT)模型下的生存结果,AFT是比例风险(PH)脆弱性模型的一个有用替代方案。换句话说,针对临床数据提出了一个生存参数回归框架,使用梯度下降优化策略有效地将核学习与AFT模型相结合。该方法包括应用四种不同的参数模型,使用19个不同的核进行评估,以提取最佳拟合场景。最终形成了一个复杂的策略,通过MKL将这些内核组合在一起。由于脆弱模型和MKL具有相同的基本性质,我们对它们进行了比较。采用一致性指数(C-index)和Brier评分(B-score)对模型进行评估。每个模型都在一个案例研究和一个复制/独立数据集上进行了测试。结果表明,核化提高了模型的性能,特别是通过将选择的核结合到MKL中。
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引用次数: 0
Dropping out of a peripartum depression mHealth study: participants' motives and suggestions for improvement. 退出围产期抑郁症移动健康研究:参与者的动机和改善建议。
IF 3.9 3区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-01-11 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-025-02462-z
Hanna Wierenga, Konstantina V Pagoni, Alkistis Skalkidou, Fotios C Papadopoulos, Femke Geusens

Background: Peripartum depression is a common but potentially debilitating pregnancy complication. Mobile applications can be used to collect data throughout the pregnancy and postpartum period to improve understanding of early risk indicators.

Aim: This study aimed to improve understanding of why women drop out of a peripartum depression mHealth study, and how we can improve the app design.

Method: Participants who dropped out of the Mom2B study (n = 134) answered closed and open questions on their motives for dropping out of the study, suggestions for improvement, and preferred timeframe of the study. A mix of quantitative and qualitative strategies was used to analyze the responses.

Results: The most common reasons for discontinuation were lack of time, problems with or loss of the pregnancy, the use of other pregnancy applications, surveys being too lengthy, the app draining too much battery, and participants incorrectly believing that their answers were irrelevant for the study. Participants suggested fewer survey moments, more reminders, and a need for more unique content compared to commercially available apps.

Conclusions: Researcher who want to use mHealth designs in peripartum studies need to ensure that their study designs are as time-efficient as possible, remind participants about the study, manage expectations about the study and what is expected of participants throughout the study, design their apps to be attractive in a competitive market, and follow-up with participants who are excluded from the study due to pregnancy complications.

背景:围产期抑郁是一种常见但潜在的使人衰弱的妊娠并发症。移动应用程序可用于收集整个孕期和产后期间的数据,以提高对早期风险指标的了解。目的:本研究旨在提高对女性退出围产期抑郁症移动健康研究的理解,以及我们如何改进应用程序设计。方法:退出Mom2B研究的参与者(n = 134)回答了关于他们退出研究的动机、改进建议和首选研究时间框架的封闭式和开放式问题。定量和定性策略的混合使用来分析回应。结果:最常见的中断原因是缺乏时间,怀孕问题或流产,使用其他怀孕应用程序,调查太长,应用程序消耗太多电池,以及参与者错误地认为他们的答案与研究无关。与商业应用程序相比,参与者建议减少调查时刻,增加提醒,需要更多独特的内容。结论:想要在围产期研究中使用移动健康设计的研究人员需要确保他们的研究设计尽可能具有时间效率,提醒参与者有关研究,管理对研究的期望以及在整个研究过程中对参与者的期望,设计他们的应用程序在竞争激烈的市场中具有吸引力,并对因妊娠并发症而被排除在研究之外的参与者进行随访。
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引用次数: 0
Development and validation of a model to identify polycystic ovary syndrome in the French national administrative health database. 开发和验证一个模型,以确定多囊卵巢综合征在法国国家行政卫生数据库。
IF 3.9 3区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-01-10 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-024-02447-4
Eugénie Micolon, Sandrine Loubiere, Appoline Zimmermann, Julie Berbis, Pascal Auquier, Blandine Courbiere

Background: We aimed to develop and validate an algorithm for identifying women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) in the French national health data system.

Methods: Using data from the French national health data system, we applied the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) related diagnoses E28.2 for PCOS among women aged 18 to 43 years in 2021. Then, we developed an algorithm to identify PCOS using combinations of clinical criteria related to specific drugs claims, biological exams, international classification of Diseases (ICD-10) related diagnoses during hospitalization, and/or registration for long-term conditions. The sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV) of different combinations of algorithm criteria were estimated by reviewing the medical records of the Department of Reproductive Medicine at a university hospital for the year 2022, comparing potential women identified as experiencing PCOS by the algorithms with a list of clinically registered women with or without PCOS.

Results: We identified 2,807 (0.01%) women aged 18 to 43 who received PCOS-related care in 2021 using the ICD-10 code for PCOS in the French National health database. By applying the PCOS algorithm to 349 women, the positive and negative predictive values were 0.90 (95%CI (83-95) and 0.93 (95%CI 0.90-0.96) respectively. The sensitivity of the PCOS algorithm was estimated at 0.85 (95%CI 0.77-0.91) and the specificity at 0.96 (95%CI 0.92-0.98).

Conclusion: The validity of the PCOS diagnostic algorithm in women undergoing reproductive health care was acceptable. Our findings may be useful for future studies on PCOS using administrative data on a national scale, or even on an international scale given the similarity of coding in this field.

背景:我们的目的是在法国国家健康数据系统中开发和验证一种识别多囊卵巢综合征(PCOS)妇女的算法。方法:使用来自法国国家健康数据系统的数据,我们应用国际疾病分类(ICD-10)相关诊断E28.2对2021年18至43岁女性的PCOS进行诊断。然后,我们开发了一种算法,通过结合与特定药物声明相关的临床标准、生物检查、住院期间与国际疾病分类(ICD-10)相关的诊断和/或长期病情登记来识别多囊卵巢综合征。通过查阅某大学附属医院生殖医学科2022年的医疗记录,将算法确定的多囊卵巢综合征(PCOS)潜在患者与临床登记的多囊卵巢综合征(PCOS)患者名单进行比较,评估不同算法标准组合的敏感性、特异性和阳性预测值(PPV)。结果:我们确定了2,807名(0.01%)年龄在18至43岁之间的女性,她们在2021年使用法国国家卫生数据库中PCOS的ICD-10代码接受了PCOS相关的护理。将PCOS算法应用于349例女性,阳性预测值为0.90 (95%CI(83 ~ 95)),阴性预测值为0.93 (95%CI 0.90 ~ 0.96)。PCOS算法的敏感性估计为0.85 (95%CI 0.77 ~ 0.91),特异性估计为0.96 (95%CI 0.92 ~ 0.98)。结论:PCOS诊断算法在接受生殖保健的妇女中的有效性是可以接受的。鉴于该领域编码的相似性,我们的研究结果可能对未来在国家范围内甚至在国际范围内使用行政数据进行多囊卵巢综合征的研究有用。
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引用次数: 0
Identify the underlying true model from other models for clinical practice using model performance measures. 使用模型性能度量,从临床实践的其他模型中识别潜在的真实模型。
IF 3.9 3区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-025-02457-w
Yan Li

Objective: To assess whether the outcome generation true model could be identified from other candidate models for clinical practice with current conventional model performance measures considering various simulation scenarios and a CVD risk prediction as exemplar.

Study design and setting: Thousands of scenarios of true models were used to simulate clinical data, various candidate models and true models were trained on training datasets and then compared on testing datasets with 25 conventional use model performance measures. This consists of univariate simulation (179.2k simulated datasets and over 1.792 million models), multivariate simulation (728k simulated datasets and over 8.736 million models) and a CVD risk prediction case analysis.

Results: True models had overall C statistic and 95% range of 0.67 (0.51, 0.96) across all scenarios in univariate simulation, 0.81 (0.54, 0.98) in multivariate simulation, 0.85 (0.82, 0.88) in univariate case analysis and 0.85 (0.82, 0.88) in multivariate case analysis. Measures showed very clear differences between the true model and flip-coin model, little or none differences between the true model and candidate models with extra noises, relatively small differences between the true model and proxy models missing causal predictors.

Conclusion: The study found the true model is not always identified as the "outperformed" model by current conventional measures for binary outcome, even though such true model is presented in the clinical data. New statistical approaches or measures should be established to identify the casual true model from proxy models, especially for those in proxy models with extra noises and/or missing causal predictors.

目的:考虑到各种模拟场景和心血管疾病风险预测作为范例,评估是否可以从其他候选模型中识别出结果生成真实模型。研究设计和设置:使用数千种真实模型场景模拟临床数据,在训练数据集上训练各种候选模型和真实模型,然后在测试数据集上与25种常规使用模型性能指标进行比较。包括单变量模拟(179.2万个模拟数据集,179.2万个模型)、多变量模拟(728k个模拟数据集,873.6万个模型)和CVD风险预测案例分析。结果:True模型在单因素模拟、多因素模拟、单因素案例分析、多因素案例分析、0.85(0.82、0.88)和0.85(0.82、0.88)的95%范围内具有总体C统计量和95%范围。测量显示真实模型和抛硬币模型之间存在非常明显的差异,真实模型和带有额外噪声的候选模型之间几乎没有差异,真实模型和缺少因果预测因子的代理模型之间的差异相对较小。结论:本研究发现,即使临床数据中出现了真实模型,但目前二元结果的常规测量方法并不总是将真实模型确定为“优于”模型。应该建立新的统计方法或措施来从代理模型中识别偶然真实模型,特别是对于那些具有额外噪声和/或缺少因果预测因子的代理模型。
{"title":"Identify the underlying true model from other models for clinical practice using model performance measures.","authors":"Yan Li","doi":"10.1186/s12874-025-02457-w","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12874-025-02457-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To assess whether the outcome generation true model could be identified from other candidate models for clinical practice with current conventional model performance measures considering various simulation scenarios and a CVD risk prediction as exemplar.</p><p><strong>Study design and setting: </strong>Thousands of scenarios of true models were used to simulate clinical data, various candidate models and true models were trained on training datasets and then compared on testing datasets with 25 conventional use model performance measures. This consists of univariate simulation (179.2k simulated datasets and over 1.792 million models), multivariate simulation (728k simulated datasets and over 8.736 million models) and a CVD risk prediction case analysis.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>True models had overall C statistic and 95% range of 0.67 (0.51, 0.96) across all scenarios in univariate simulation, 0.81 (0.54, 0.98) in multivariate simulation, 0.85 (0.82, 0.88) in univariate case analysis and 0.85 (0.82, 0.88) in multivariate case analysis. Measures showed very clear differences between the true model and flip-coin model, little or none differences between the true model and candidate models with extra noises, relatively small differences between the true model and proxy models missing causal predictors.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The study found the true model is not always identified as the \"outperformed\" model by current conventional measures for binary outcome, even though such true model is presented in the clinical data. New statistical approaches or measures should be established to identify the casual true model from proxy models, especially for those in proxy models with extra noises and/or missing causal predictors.</p>","PeriodicalId":9114,"journal":{"name":"BMC Medical Research Methodology","volume":"25 1","pages":"4"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11715858/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142944667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Statistical methods in the analysis of multicentre HIV randomized controlled trials in the African region: a scoping review. 非洲地区多中心艾滋病毒随机对照试验分析的统计方法:范围审查。
IF 3.9 3区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-01-08 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-024-02441-w
Mikateko Mazinu, Nomonde Gwebushe, Samuel Manda, Tarylee Reddy

Background: The majority of phase 3 clinical trials are implemented in multiple sites or centres, which inevitably leads to a correlation between observations from the same site or centre. This correlation must be carefully considered in both the design and the statistical analysis to ensure an accurate interpretation of the results and reduce the risk of biased results. This scoping review aims to provide a detailed statistical method used to analyze data collected from multicentre HIV randomized controlled trials in the African region.

Methods: This review followed the methodological framework proposed by Arksey and O'Malley. We searched four databases (PubMed, EBSCOhost, Scopus, and Web of Science) and retrieved 977 articles, 34 of which were included in the review.

Results: Data charting revealed that the most used statistical methods for analysing HIV endpoints in multicentre randomized controlled trials in Africa were standard survival analysis techniques (24 articles [71%]). Approximately 47% of the articles used stratified analysis methods to account for variations across different sites. Out of 34 articles reviewed, only 6 explicitly considered intra-site correlation in the analysis.

Conclusions: Our scoping review provides insights into the statistical methods used to analyse HIV data in multicentre randomized controlled trials in Africa and highlights the need for standardized reporting of statistical methods.

背景:大多数3期临床试验在多个地点或中心进行,这不可避免地导致来自同一地点或中心的观察结果之间的相关性。在设计和统计分析中必须仔细考虑这种相关性,以确保对结果的准确解释并减少结果偏差的风险。这项范围审查的目的是提供一种详细的统计方法,用于分析从非洲地区的多中心艾滋病毒随机对照试验收集的数据。方法:本综述遵循Arksey和O'Malley提出的方法框架。我们检索了四个数据库(PubMed、EBSCOhost、Scopus和Web of Science),检索到977篇文章,其中34篇被纳入综述。结果:数据图表显示,在非洲的多中心随机对照试验中,用于分析HIV终点的最常用统计方法是标准生存分析技术(24篇文章[71%])。大约47%的文章使用分层分析方法来解释不同地点的差异。在回顾的34篇文章中,只有6篇在分析中明确考虑了位点内相关性。结论:我们的范围综述提供了对非洲多中心随机对照试验中用于分析艾滋病毒数据的统计方法的见解,并强调了统计方法标准化报告的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Development of a standardized patient-reported clinical questionnaire for children with spinal pain. 为患有脊柱疼痛的儿童制定标准化的患者报告的临床问卷。
IF 3.9 3区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-01-04 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-024-02449-2
Freja Gomez Overgaard, Henrik Hein Lauridsen, Mads Damkjær, Anne Reffsøe Ebbesen, Lise Hestbæk, Mikkel Brunsgaard Konner, Søren Francis Dyhrberg O'Neill, Stine Haugaard Pape, Michael Skovdal Rathleff, Christian Lund Straszek, Casper Nim

Background: Spinal pain affects up to 30% of school-age children and can interfere with various aspects of daily life, such as school attendance, physical function, and social life. Current assessment tools often rely on parental reporting which limits our understanding of how each child is affected by their pain. This study aimed to address this gap by developing MySpineData-Kids ("MiRD-Kids"), a tailored patient-reported questionnaire focusing on children with spinal pain in secondary care (Danish hospital setting).

Methods: The process and development of MiRD-Kids followed a structured, multi-phase approach targeted children in outpatient care. The first phase involved evidence-synthesis, expert consultations, and item formulation, resulting in the first version. The second phase involved pilot testing among pediatric spinal pain patients, leading to modifications for improved clarity and relevance. The third phase involved implementation at the Pediatric outpatient track at The Spine Centre of Southern Denmark, University Hospital of Southern Denmark.

Results: MiRD-Kids was based on selected items from seven questionnaires, encompassing 20 items across six domains. Pilot testing with 13 pediatric patients facilitated modifications and finalized the questionnaire. The questionnaire includes sections for parents/legal guardians and six domains for children covering pain, sleep, activities, trauma, concerns, and treatment, following the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF). Implementation challenges were overcome within a 2-month period, resulting in the clinical questionnaire MiRD-Kids a comprehensive tool for assessing pediatric spinal pain in hospital outpatient settings.

Conclusion: MiRD-Kids is the first comprehensive questionnaire for children with spinal pain seen in outpatient caresetting and follows the ICF approach. It can support age-specific high-quality research and comprehensive clinical assessment of children aged 12 to 17 years, potentially, contributing to efforts aimed at mitigating the long-term consequences of spinal pain.

背景:脊髓疼痛影响多达30%的学龄儿童,可干扰日常生活的各个方面,如上学、身体功能和社交生活。目前的评估工具通常依赖于父母的报告,这限制了我们对每个孩子如何受到疼痛影响的理解。本研究旨在通过开发myspineddata - kids(“mid - kids”)来解决这一差距,这是一份针对二级护理(丹麦医院设置)脊柱疼痛儿童的量身定制的患者报告问卷。方法:MiRD-Kids的过程和发展遵循结构化的多阶段方法,针对门诊儿童。第一阶段涉及证据综合、专家咨询和项目制定,从而产生第一版。第二阶段包括在小儿脊柱疼痛患者中进行试点测试,以提高清晰度和相关性。第三阶段涉及在南丹麦脊柱中心、南丹麦大学医院的儿科门诊部实施。结果:本研究以7份问卷为基础,涵盖6个领域的20个项目。对13名儿科患者的试点测试促进了问卷的修改并最终确定。调查问卷根据国际功能、残疾和健康分类(ICF),包括父母/法定监护人的部分和儿童的六个领域,涵盖疼痛、睡眠、活动、创伤、关切和治疗。在2个月的时间内克服了实施方面的挑战,导致临床问卷MiRD-Kids成为评估医院门诊儿科脊柱疼痛的综合工具。结论:MiRD-Kids是第一个针对门诊护理中脊柱疼痛儿童的综合问卷,并遵循ICF方法。它可以支持针对年龄的高质量研究和对12至17岁儿童的全面临床评估,可能有助于减轻脊柱疼痛的长期后果。
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引用次数: 0
A data-driven approach to study temporal characteristics of COVID-19 infection and death Time Series for twelve countries across six continents. 采用数据驱动方法研究六大洲12个国家COVID-19感染和死亡时间序列的时间特征。
IF 3.9 3区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-01-03 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-024-02423-y
Sabyasachi Guharay

Background: In this work, we implement a data-driven approach using an aggregation of several analytical methods to study the characteristics of COVID-19 daily infection and death time series and identify correlations and characteristic trends that can be corroborated to the time evolution of this disease. The datasets cover twelve distinct countries across six continents, from January 22, 2020 till March 1, 2022. This time span is partitioned into three windows: (1) pre-vaccine, (2) post-vaccine and pre-omicron (BA.1 variant), and (3) post-vaccine including post-omicron variant. This study enables deriving insights into intriguing questions related to the science of system dynamics pertaining to COVID-19 evolution.

Methods: We implement a set of several distinct analytical methods for: (a) statistical studies to estimate the skewness and kurtosis of the data distributions; (b) analyzing the stationarity properties of these time series using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) tests; (c) examining co-integration properties for the non-stationary time series using the Phillips-Ouliaris (PO) tests; (d) calculating the Hurst exponent using the rescaled-range (R/S) analysis, along with the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), for self-affinity studies of the evolving dynamical datasets.

Results: We notably observe a significant asymmetry of distributions shows from skewness and the presence of heavy tails is noted from kurtosis. The daily infection and death data are, by and large, nonstationary, while their corresponding log return values render stationarity. The self-affinity studies through the Hurst exponents and DFA exhibit intriguing local changes over time. These changes can be attributed to the underlying dynamics of state transitions, especially from a random state to either mean-reversion or long-range memory/persistence states.

Conclusions: We conduct systematic studies covering a widely diverse time series datasets of the daily infections and deaths during the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. We demonstrate the merit of a multiple analytics frameworks through systematically laying down a methodological structure for analyses and quantitatively examining the evolution of the daily COVID-19 infection and death cases. This methodology builds a capability for tracking dynamically evolving states pertaining to critical problems.

背景:本研究采用数据驱动的方法,综合多种分析方法,研究COVID-19日感染和死亡时间序列特征,并确定可证实该疾病时间演变的相关性和特征趋势。这些数据集涵盖了2020年1月22日至2022年3月1日期间六大洲的12个不同国家。这段时间被划分为三个窗口:(1)疫苗前,(2)疫苗后和组粒前(BA.1变异),以及(3)疫苗后包括组粒后变异。这项研究使我们能够深入了解与COVID-19进化相关的系统动力学科学的有趣问题。方法:我们实施了一套不同的分析方法:(a)统计研究,以估计数据分布的偏度和峰度;(b)利用增广Dickey-Fuller (ADF)检验分析这些时间序列的平稳性;(c)使用philips - ouliaris (PO)检验非平稳时间序列的协整特性;(d)利用重新标度范围(R/S)分析和去趋势波动分析(DFA)计算Hurst指数,用于不断发展的动态数据集的自亲和性研究。结果:我们明显地观察到分布的不对称性,从偏度和峰度中可以看出重尾的存在。总的来说,每日感染和死亡数据是非平稳的,而它们对应的对数返回值呈现平稳。通过赫斯特指数和DFA进行的自亲和研究显示出有趣的局部变化。这些变化可以归因于状态转换的潜在动态,特别是从随机状态到均值回归或长期记忆/持久状态。结论:我们进行了系统研究,涵盖了COVID-19大流行演变过程中日常感染和死亡的广泛不同时间序列数据集。我们通过系统地制定用于分析和定量检查每日COVID-19感染和死亡病例演变的方法结构,展示了多种分析框架的优点。该方法建立了跟踪与关键问题相关的动态发展状态的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Internal validation of self-reported case numbers in hospital quality reports: preparing secondary data for health services research. 医院质量报告中自我报告病例数的内部验证:为卫生服务研究准备二级数据。
IF 3.9 3区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-12-31 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-024-02429-6
Limei Ji, Max Geraedts, Werner de Cruppé

Background: Health services research often relies on secondary data, necessitating quality checks for completeness, validity, and potential errors before use. Various methods address implausible data, including data elimination, statistical estimation, or value substitution from the same or another dataset. This study presents an internal validation process of a secondary dataset used to investigate hospital compliance with minimum caseload requirements (MCR) in Germany. The secondary data source validated is the German Hospital Quality Reports (GHQR), an official dataset containing structured self-reported data from all hospitals in Germany.

Methods: This study conducted an internal cross-field validation of MCR-related data in GHQR from 2016 to 2021. The validation process checked the validity of reported MCR caseloads, including data availability and consistency, by comparing the stated MCR caseload with further variables in the GHQR. Subsequently, implausible MCR caseload values were corrected using the most plausible values given in the same GHQR. The study also analysed the error sources and used reimbursement-related Diagnosis Related Groups Statistic data to assess the validation outcomes.

Results: The analysis focused on four MCR procedures. 11.8-27.7% of the total MCR caseload values in the GHQR appeared ambiguous, and 7.9-23.7% were corrected. The correction added 0.7-3.7% of cases not previously stated as MCR caseloads and added 1.5-26.1% of hospital sites as MCR performing hospitals not previously stated in the GHQR. The main error source was this non-reporting of MCR caseloads, especially by hospitals with low case numbers. The basic plausibility control implemented by the Federal Joint Committee since 2018 has improved the MCR-related data quality over time.

Conclusions: This study employed a comprehensive approach to dataset internal validation that encompassed: (1) hospital association level data, (2) hospital site level data and (3) medical department level data, (4) report data spanning six years, and (5) logical plausibility checks. To ensure data completeness, we selected the most plausible values without eliminating incomplete or implausible data. For future practice, we recommend a validation process when using GHQR as a data source for MCR-related research. Additionally, an adapted plausibility control could help to improve the quality of MCR documentation.

背景:卫生服务研究通常依赖于二手数据,在使用前需要对完整性、有效性和潜在错误进行质量检查。各种方法处理不可信的数据,包括数据消除、统计估计或来自相同或另一个数据集的值替换。本研究提出了用于调查德国医院遵守最低病例负荷要求(MCR)的二级数据集的内部验证过程。验证的次要数据源是德国医院质量报告(GHQR),这是一个官方数据集,包含来自德国所有医院的结构化自我报告数据。方法:本研究对2016 - 2021年GHQR的mcr相关数据进行了内部跨领域验证。验证过程通过将所述MCR病例量与GHQR中的其他变量进行比较,检查报告的MCR病例量的有效性,包括数据的可用性和一致性。随后,使用同一GHQR中给出的最合理的值来纠正不合理的MCR病例负荷值。本研究还分析了误差来源,并使用报销相关诊断相关组统计数据来评估验证结果。结果:重点分析了4种MCR手术。GHQR中11.8-27.7%的MCR总病例负荷值出现模糊,7.9-23.7%得到纠正。这一修正增加了0.7-3.7%以前未被列为MCR病例量的病例,并增加了1.5-26.1%的医院地点作为执行MCR的医院,这些医院以前未在GHQR中列出。主要的错误来源是没有报告MCR病例量,特别是病例数少的医院。联邦联合委员会自2018年以来实施的基本合理性控制随着时间的推移提高了mcr相关数据的质量。结论:本研究采用了一种综合的数据集内部验证方法,包括:(1)医院协会级别的数据,(2)医院站点级别的数据,(3)医疗部门级别的数据,(4)跨越六年的报告数据,以及(5)逻辑合理性检查。为了确保数据的完整性,我们选择了最可信的值,而不排除不完整或不可信的数据。在未来的实践中,我们建议在使用GHQR作为mcr相关研究的数据源时进行验证过程。此外,适应性的合理性控制可以帮助提高MCR文档的质量。
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引用次数: 0
A prediction approach to COVID-19 time series with LSTM integrated attention mechanism and transfer learning. 基于LSTM的COVID-19时间序列预测方法
IF 3.9 3区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-12-31 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-024-02433-w
Bin Hu, Yaohui Han, Wenhui Zhang, Qingyang Zhang, Wen Gu, Jun Bi, Bi Chen, Lishun Xiao

Background: The prediction of coronavirus disease in 2019 (COVID-19) in broader regions has been widely researched, but for specific areas such as urban areas the predictive models were rarely studied. It may be inaccurate to apply predictive models from a broad region directly to a small area. This paper builds a prediction approach for small size COVID-19 time series in a city.

Methods: Numbers of COVID-19 daily confirmed cases were collected from November 1, 2022 to November 16, 2023 in Xuzhou city of China. Classical deep learning models including recurrent neural network (RNN), long and short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU) and temporal convolutional network (TCN) are initially trained, then RNN, LSTM and GRU are integrated with a new attention mechanism and transfer learning to improve the performance. Ten times ablation experiments are conducted to show the robustness of the performance in prediction. The performances among the models are compared by the mean absolute error, root mean square error and coefficient of determination.

Results: LSTM outperforms than others, and TCN has the worst generalization ability. Thus, LSTM is integrated with the new attention mechanism to construct an LSTMATT model, which improves the performance. LSTMATT is trained on the smoothed time series curve through frequency domain convolution augmentation, then transfer learning is adopted to transfer the learned features back to the original time series resulting in a TLLA model that further improves the performance. RNN and GRU are also integrated with the attention mechanism and transfer learning and their performances are also improved, but TLLA still performs best.

Conclusions: The TLLA model has the best prediction performance for the time series of COVID-19 daily confirmed cases, and the new attention mechanism and transfer learning contribute to improve the prediction performance in the flatten part and the jagged part, respectively.

背景:2019年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)在更大范围内的预测已经得到了广泛的研究,但针对特定区域(如城市地区)的预测模型研究很少。将大区域的预测模型直接应用于小区域可能是不准确的。本文建立了一种城市小尺度COVID-19时间序列的预测方法。方法:收集2022年11月1日至2023年11月16日徐州市每日新冠肺炎确诊病例数。首先对经典深度学习模型包括循环神经网络(RNN)、长短期记忆(LSTM)、门控循环单元(GRU)和时间卷积网络(TCN)进行初步训练,然后将RNN、LSTM和GRU与一种新的注意机制和迁移学习相结合,提高学习性能。进行了10次烧蚀实验,验证了预测结果的稳健性。通过平均绝对误差、均方根误差和决定系数对模型的性能进行了比较。结果:LSTM泛化能力较好,TCN泛化能力最差。因此,将LSTM与新的注意机制相结合,构建LSTMATT模型,提高了性能。通过频域卷积增强在光滑的时间序列曲线上训练LSTMATT,然后采用迁移学习将学习到的特征迁移回原始时间序列,得到TLLA模型,进一步提高了性能。RNN和GRU也集成了注意机制和迁移学习,其性能也得到了提高,但TLLA仍然是最好的。结论:TLLA模型对COVID-19日确诊病例时间序列的预测性能最好,新的注意机制和迁移学习分别有助于提高平坦部分和锯齿部分的预测性能。
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引用次数: 0
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BMC Medical Research Methodology
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