Pub Date : 2024-02-28DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-22-0116.1
Diana Bernstein
"A Path to Gender Equity in the Geosciences: Empowering Women Postdocs" published on 28 Feb 2024 by American Meteorological Society.
"地球科学领域的性别平等之路：美国气象学会于 2024 年 2 月 28 日发表了 "A Path to Gender Equity in the Geosciences: Empowering Women Postdocs "一文。
{"title":"A Path to Gender Equity in the Geosciences: Empowering Women Postdocs","authors":"Diana Bernstein","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-22-0116.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-22-0116.1","url":null,"abstract":"\"A Path to Gender Equity in the Geosciences: Empowering Women Postdocs\" published on 28 Feb 2024 by American Meteorological Society.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"101 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140002103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-28DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0114.1
Gabor Vali, Russell C. Schnell
Abstract An overview is given of the path of research that led from asking how hailstones originate to the discovery that ice nucleation can be initiated by bacteria and other microorganisms at temperatures as high as −2°C. The major steps along that path were finding exceptionally effective ice nucleators in soils of high content of decayed vegetative matter, then in decaying tree leaves, then in plankton-laden ocean water. Eventually, it was shown that Pseudomonas syringae bacteria were responsible for the most of the observed activity. That identification coincided with the demonstration that the same bacteria cause frost damage on plants. Ice nucleation by bacteria meant an unexpected turn in the understanding of ice nucleation and of ice formation in the atmosphere. Subsequent research confirmed the unique effectiveness of ice nucleating particles of biological origin, referred to as bio-INPs, so that bio-INPs are now considered to be important elements of lower-tropospheric cloud processes. Nonetheless, some of the questions which originally motivated the research are still unresolved, so that revisiting the early work may be helpful to current endeavors. Part 1 of this manuscript summarizes how the discovery progressed. Part 2, (Schnell and Vali, 2024; SV24) shows the relationship between bio-INPs in soils and in precipitation with climate, and other findings. The online Supplemental Material contains a bibliography of recent work about bio-INPs.
{"title":"Looking back: An account of how ice nucleation by bacteria was discovered; 1963 to about mid-1980s. Part 1. The basics","authors":"Gabor Vali, Russell C. Schnell","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0114.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0114.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract An overview is given of the path of research that led from asking how hailstones originate to the discovery that ice nucleation can be initiated by bacteria and other microorganisms at temperatures as high as −2°C. The major steps along that path were finding exceptionally effective ice nucleators in soils of high content of decayed vegetative matter, then in decaying tree leaves, then in plankton-laden ocean water. Eventually, it was shown that Pseudomonas syringae bacteria were responsible for the most of the observed activity. That identification coincided with the demonstration that the same bacteria cause frost damage on plants. Ice nucleation by bacteria meant an unexpected turn in the understanding of ice nucleation and of ice formation in the atmosphere. Subsequent research confirmed the unique effectiveness of ice nucleating particles of biological origin, referred to as bio-INPs, so that bio-INPs are now considered to be important elements of lower-tropospheric cloud processes. Nonetheless, some of the questions which originally motivated the research are still unresolved, so that revisiting the early work may be helpful to current endeavors. Part 1 of this manuscript summarizes how the discovery progressed. Part 2, (Schnell and Vali, 2024; SV24) shows the relationship between bio-INPs in soils and in precipitation with climate, and other findings. The online Supplemental Material contains a bibliography of recent work about bio-INPs.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140001911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-28DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0115.1
Russell C. Schnell, Gabor Vali
Abstract In Part 1 (Vali and Schnell, 2024; VS24) we described the discoveries we and our associates made in the 1960s and 1970s about biological ice nucleators (bio-INPs). Bio-INPs are far more effective than mineral INPs at temperatures above −10°C. The bio-INPs were found in decayed vegetation and in ocean water, then bacteria were identified as being the most active source for this remarkable activity. In this Part 2, we recount how, within a few years, the worldwide distribution of bio-INP sources was shown to correlate with climate zones, as was the abundance of INPs in precipitation. Oceanic sources were further studied and the presence of bio-INPs in fog diagnosed. The potential for release of bio-INPs from to the atmosphere was demonstrated. Bacterial INPs were found to play a crucial role in a plant’s frost resistance. These and other early developments of biological INPs are described. A bibliography of related recent literature is presented in the online Part 1 Supplemental Material.
{"title":"Looking back: An account of how ice nucleation by bacteria was discovered; 1963 to about mid-1980s. Part 2. Broadening the scope","authors":"Russell C. Schnell, Gabor Vali","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0115.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0115.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In Part 1 (Vali and Schnell, 2024; VS24) we described the discoveries we and our associates made in the 1960s and 1970s about biological ice nucleators (bio-INPs). Bio-INPs are far more effective than mineral INPs at temperatures above −10°C. The bio-INPs were found in decayed vegetation and in ocean water, then bacteria were identified as being the most active source for this remarkable activity. In this Part 2, we recount how, within a few years, the worldwide distribution of bio-INP sources was shown to correlate with climate zones, as was the abundance of INPs in precipitation. Oceanic sources were further studied and the presence of bio-INPs in fog diagnosed. The potential for release of bio-INPs from to the atmosphere was demonstrated. Bacterial INPs were found to play a crucial role in a plant’s frost resistance. These and other early developments of biological INPs are described. A bibliography of related recent literature is presented in the online Part 1 Supplemental Material.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140001908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-27DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0034.1
Travis Griggs, James Flynn, Yuxuan Wang, Sergio Alvarez, Michael Comas, Paul Walter
Abstract Photochemical modeling outputs showing high ozone concentrations over the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay during ozone episodes in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) region have not been previously verified using in-situ observations. Such data was collected systematically, for the first time, from July-October 2021 from three boats deployed for the Galveston Offshore Ozone Observations (GO3) and Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment - Air Quality (TRACER-AQ) field campaigns. A pontoon boat and a commercial vessel operated in Galveston Bay, while another commercial vessel operated in the Gulf of Mexico offshore of Galveston. All three boats had continuously operating sampling systems that included ozone analyzers and weather stations, and the two boats operating in Galveston Bay had a ceilometer. The sampling systems operated autonomously on the two commercial boats as they traveled their daily routes. Thirty-seven ozonesondes were launched over water on forecast high ozone days in Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. During the campaigns, multiple periods of ozone exceeding 100 ppbv were observed over water in Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. These events included previously identified conditions for high ozone events in the HGB region, such as the bay/sea breeze recirculation and post-frontal environments, as well as a localized coastal high ozone event after the passing of a tropical system (Hurricane Nicholas) that was not well forecast.
{"title":"Characterizing Over Water High Ozone Events in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Region During the 2021 GO3 and TRACER-AQ Campaigns","authors":"Travis Griggs, James Flynn, Yuxuan Wang, Sergio Alvarez, Michael Comas, Paul Walter","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0034.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0034.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Photochemical modeling outputs showing high ozone concentrations over the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay during ozone episodes in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) region have not been previously verified using in-situ observations. Such data was collected systematically, for the first time, from July-October 2021 from three boats deployed for the Galveston Offshore Ozone Observations (GO3) and Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment - Air Quality (TRACER-AQ) field campaigns. A pontoon boat and a commercial vessel operated in Galveston Bay, while another commercial vessel operated in the Gulf of Mexico offshore of Galveston. All three boats had continuously operating sampling systems that included ozone analyzers and weather stations, and the two boats operating in Galveston Bay had a ceilometer. The sampling systems operated autonomously on the two commercial boats as they traveled their daily routes. Thirty-seven ozonesondes were launched over water on forecast high ozone days in Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. During the campaigns, multiple periods of ozone exceeding 100 ppbv were observed over water in Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. These events included previously identified conditions for high ozone events in the HGB region, such as the bay/sea breeze recirculation and post-frontal environments, as well as a localized coastal high ozone event after the passing of a tropical system (Hurricane Nicholas) that was not well forecast.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140002009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-27DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-22-0241.1
Chris Vagasky, Ronald L. Holle, Martin J. Murphy, John A. Cramer, Ryan K. Said, Mitchell Guthrie, Jesse Hietanen
Abstract The number of cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) has been estimated to be from as small as 25 million per year to as many as 40 million. In addition, many CG flashes contact the ground in more than one place. To clarify these values, recent data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) have been examined since the network is performing well enough to make precise updates to the number of CG flashes and their associated ground contact points. The average number of CG flashes is calculated to be about 23.4 million per year over CONUS, and the average number of ground contact points is calculated as 36.8 million per year. Knowledge of these two parameters is critical to lightning protection standards, as well as better understanding of the effects of lightning on forest fire initiation, geophysical interactions, human safety, and applications that benefit from knowing that a single flash may transfer charge to ground in multiple, widely-spaced locations. Sensitivity tests to assess the effects of misclassification of CG and in-cloud (IC) lightning are also made to place bounds on these estimates; and the likely uncertainty is a few percent.
{"title":"How Much Lightning Actually Strikes the United States?","authors":"Chris Vagasky, Ronald L. Holle, Martin J. Murphy, John A. Cramer, Ryan K. Said, Mitchell Guthrie, Jesse Hietanen","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-22-0241.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-22-0241.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The number of cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) has been estimated to be from as small as 25 million per year to as many as 40 million. In addition, many CG flashes contact the ground in more than one place. To clarify these values, recent data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) have been examined since the network is performing well enough to make precise updates to the number of CG flashes and their associated ground contact points. The average number of CG flashes is calculated to be about 23.4 million per year over CONUS, and the average number of ground contact points is calculated as 36.8 million per year. Knowledge of these two parameters is critical to lightning protection standards, as well as better understanding of the effects of lightning on forest fire initiation, geophysical interactions, human safety, and applications that benefit from knowing that a single flash may transfer charge to ground in multiple, widely-spaced locations. Sensitivity tests to assess the effects of misclassification of CG and in-cloud (IC) lightning are also made to place bounds on these estimates; and the likely uncertainty is a few percent.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139981534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-26DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0137.1
Bosi Sheng, Buwen Dong, Haolin Wang, Mingming Zhang, Shuheng Lin, Peng Si, Fraser C. Lott, Qingxiang Li
Abstract Precipitation in southern China during April–June 2022 was the highest since 1961. Anthropogenic forcing has reduced the probability of 2022-like Rx30day precipitation by about 45% based on CMIP6 simulations.
{"title":"Anthropogenic Influences on Extremely Persistent Seasonal Precipitation in Southern China during May–June 2022","authors":"Bosi Sheng, Buwen Dong, Haolin Wang, Mingming Zhang, Shuheng Lin, Peng Si, Fraser C. Lott, Qingxiang Li","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0137.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0137.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Precipitation in southern China during April–June 2022 was the highest since 1961. Anthropogenic forcing has reduced the probability of 2022-like Rx30day precipitation by about 45% based on CMIP6 simulations.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139968966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-26DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0110.1
Fan Mei, Hailong Wang, Zihua Zhu, Damao Zhang, Qi Zhang, Jerome D. Fast, William I. Gustafson, Xiangyu Li, Beat Schmid, Christopher Niedek, Jason Tomlinson, Connor Flynn
Abstract The spatial distribution of ambient aerosol particles significantly impacts aerosol- radiation-cloud interactions, which contribute to the largest uncertainty in global anthropogenic radiative forcing estimations. However, the atmospheric boundary layer and lower free troposphere have not been adequately sampled in terms of spatiotemporal resolution, hindering a comprehensive characterization of various atmospheric processes and impeding our understanding of the Earth system. To address this research data gap, we have leveraged the development of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and advanced measurement techniques to obtain mesoscale spatial data on aerosol microphysical and optical properties around the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. Our study also benefits from state-of-the-art laboratory facilities that include 3-dimensional molecular imaging techniques enabled by secondary ion mass spectrometry and nanogram-level chemical composition analysis via micronebulization aerosol mass spectrometry. Through our study, we have developed a framework for observation-modeling integration, enabling an examination of how various assumptions about the organic-inorganic components mixing state, inferred from chemical analysis, affect clouds and radiation in observation-constrained model simulations. By integrating observational constraints (derived from offline chemical analysis of the aerosol surface using collected samples) with in-situ UAS observations, we have identified a prominent role of organic-enriched nanometer layers located at the surface of aerosol particles in determining profiles of aerosol optical and hygroscopic properties over the SGP observatory. Furthermore, we have improved the agreement between predicted clouds and ground-based cloud lidar measurements. This UAS-model-laboratory integration exemplifies how these new advanced capabilities can significantly enhance our understanding of aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions.
{"title":"Bridging new observational capabilities and process-level simulation: Insights into aerosol roles in the Earth system","authors":"Fan Mei, Hailong Wang, Zihua Zhu, Damao Zhang, Qi Zhang, Jerome D. Fast, William I. Gustafson, Xiangyu Li, Beat Schmid, Christopher Niedek, Jason Tomlinson, Connor Flynn","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0110.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0110.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The spatial distribution of ambient aerosol particles significantly impacts aerosol- radiation-cloud interactions, which contribute to the largest uncertainty in global anthropogenic radiative forcing estimations. However, the atmospheric boundary layer and lower free troposphere have not been adequately sampled in terms of spatiotemporal resolution, hindering a comprehensive characterization of various atmospheric processes and impeding our understanding of the Earth system. To address this research data gap, we have leveraged the development of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and advanced measurement techniques to obtain mesoscale spatial data on aerosol microphysical and optical properties around the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. Our study also benefits from state-of-the-art laboratory facilities that include 3-dimensional molecular imaging techniques enabled by secondary ion mass spectrometry and nanogram-level chemical composition analysis via micronebulization aerosol mass spectrometry. Through our study, we have developed a framework for observation-modeling integration, enabling an examination of how various assumptions about the organic-inorganic components mixing state, inferred from chemical analysis, affect clouds and radiation in observation-constrained model simulations. By integrating observational constraints (derived from offline chemical analysis of the aerosol surface using collected samples) with in-situ UAS observations, we have identified a prominent role of organic-enriched nanometer layers located at the surface of aerosol particles in determining profiles of aerosol optical and hygroscopic properties over the SGP observatory. Furthermore, we have improved the agreement between predicted clouds and ground-based cloud lidar measurements. This UAS-model-laboratory integration exemplifies how these new advanced capabilities can significantly enhance our understanding of aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139969295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-26DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0132.1
Xinru Liu, Hang Jie, Yulin Zou, Shengjun Liu, Yamin Hu, Shuyi Liu, Dangfu Yang, Liang Zhao, Jian He
Abstract According to HadGEM3 (CMIP6) models, anthropogenic forcing reduced the probability of 2022-like June mean precipitation by about 32% (15%) and increased 5-day rainfall extreme probability by about 1.8 (1.3) times.
{"title":"Anthropogenic Influence on 2022 June Extreme Rainfall over the Pearl River Basin","authors":"Xinru Liu, Hang Jie, Yulin Zou, Shengjun Liu, Yamin Hu, Shuyi Liu, Dangfu Yang, Liang Zhao, Jian He","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0132.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0132.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract According to HadGEM3 (CMIP6) models, anthropogenic forcing reduced the probability of 2022-like June mean precipitation by about 32% (15%) and increased 5-day rainfall extreme probability by about 1.8 (1.3) times.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"2016 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139969011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-23DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-22-0268.1
Elizabeth Tirone, Subrata Pal, William A Gallus, Somak Dutta, Ranjan Maitra, Jennifer Newman, Eric Weber, Israel Jirak
Abstract Many concerns are known to exist with thunderstorm wind reports in the National Center for Environmental Information Storm Events Database, including the overestimation of wind speed, changes in report frequency due to population density, and differences in reporting due to damage tracers. These concerns are especially pronounced with reports that are not associated with a wind speed measurement, but are estimated, which make up almost 90% of the database. We have used machine learning to predict the probability that a severe wind report was caused by severe intensity wind, or wind ≥ 50 kt. A total of six machine learning models were trained on 11 years of measured thunderstorm wind reports, along with meteorological parameters, population density, and elevation. Objective skill metrics such as the area under the ROC curve (AUC), Brier score, and reliability curves suggest that the best performing model is the stacked generalized linear model, which has an AUC around 0.9 and a Brier score around 0.1. The outputs from these models have many potential uses such as forecast verification and quality control for implementation in forecast tools. Our tool was evaluated favorably at the Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments in 2020, 2021, and 2022.
{"title":"A Machine Learning Approach to Improve the Usability of Severe Thunderstorm Wind Reports","authors":"Elizabeth Tirone, Subrata Pal, William A Gallus, Somak Dutta, Ranjan Maitra, Jennifer Newman, Eric Weber, Israel Jirak","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-22-0268.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-22-0268.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Many concerns are known to exist with thunderstorm wind reports in the National Center for Environmental Information Storm Events Database, including the overestimation of wind speed, changes in report frequency due to population density, and differences in reporting due to damage tracers. These concerns are especially pronounced with reports that are not associated with a wind speed measurement, but are estimated, which make up almost 90% of the database. We have used machine learning to predict the probability that a severe wind report was caused by severe intensity wind, or wind ≥ 50 kt. A total of six machine learning models were trained on 11 years of measured thunderstorm wind reports, along with meteorological parameters, population density, and elevation. Objective skill metrics such as the area under the ROC curve (AUC), Brier score, and reliability curves suggest that the best performing model is the stacked generalized linear model, which has an AUC around 0.9 and a Brier score around 0.1. The outputs from these models have many potential uses such as forecast verification and quality control for implementation in forecast tools. Our tool was evaluated favorably at the Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments in 2020, 2021, and 2022.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"174 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139949736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-21DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0159.1
Machiel Lamers, Gita Ljubicic, Rick Thoman, Jorge Carrasco, Jackie Dawson, Victoria J. Heinrich, Jelmer Jeuring, Daniela Liggett, Emma J. Stewart
Abstract The Polar Prediction Project (PPP), one of the flagship programmes of the World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), has come to an end after a decade of intensive and coordinated international observing, modelling, verification, user engagement, and education activities. While PPP facilitated many advancements in modelling and forecasting, critical investment is now required to turn prediction science into salient environmental services for the Polar Regions. In this commentary, the members of the Societal and Economic Research and Applications task team of PPP, a group of social scientists and service delivery specialists, identify a number of insights and lessons that are critical for the implementation of the follow up programme Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services (PCAPS). We argue that in order to raise the societal value of polar environmental services we need: to better understand the diversity of highly specific user contexts; to tailor the actionability of weather, water, ice and climate (WWIC) service development in the Polar Regions through inclusive transdisciplinary approaches to co-production; to assess the societal impact of improved environmental services in the Polar Regions; and to invest and provide dedicated funding for involving the social sciences in research and tailoring processes across all the Polar Regions.
{"title":"Tailored investments needed to support weather, water, ice and climate services in the Polar Regions","authors":"Machiel Lamers, Gita Ljubicic, Rick Thoman, Jorge Carrasco, Jackie Dawson, Victoria J. Heinrich, Jelmer Jeuring, Daniela Liggett, Emma J. Stewart","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0159.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0159.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Polar Prediction Project (PPP), one of the flagship programmes of the World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), has come to an end after a decade of intensive and coordinated international observing, modelling, verification, user engagement, and education activities. While PPP facilitated many advancements in modelling and forecasting, critical investment is now required to turn prediction science into salient environmental services for the Polar Regions. In this commentary, the members of the Societal and Economic Research and Applications task team of PPP, a group of social scientists and service delivery specialists, identify a number of insights and lessons that are critical for the implementation of the follow up programme Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services (PCAPS). We argue that in order to raise the societal value of polar environmental services we need: to better understand the diversity of highly specific user contexts; to tailor the actionability of weather, water, ice and climate (WWIC) service development in the Polar Regions through inclusive transdisciplinary approaches to co-production; to assess the societal impact of improved environmental services in the Polar Regions; and to invest and provide dedicated funding for involving the social sciences in research and tailoring processes across all the Polar Regions.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139925735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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