Pub Date : 2024-04-17DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0157.1
John M. Lewis, S. Lakshmivarahan
Abstract A single-day meeting between two theoretical meteorologists took place in 1961 at the Travelers Research Center (TRC) in Hartford, Connecticut. The two scientists were Barry Saltzman and Edward Lorenz, former proteges of V. P. Starr at MIT. Several years before this meeting, Lorenz discovered the following profound result: extended-range weather forecasting was not feasible in the presence of slight errors in initial conditions. The model used was the geostrophic form of a two-level baroclinic model with twelve spectral variables. These results were presented a year earlier at the First Symposium on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) in Tokyo, Japan, and met with some skepticism from the NWP elite, dynamical meteorologists, and pioneers in operational NWP. Lorenz held faint hope that Saltzman’s recently developed model of Rayleigh- Bénard convection would produce the profound result found earlier. One of the numerical experiments executed that eventful day with Saltzman’s 7-mode truncated spectral model produced an unexpected result: inability of the model’s 7 variables to settle down and approach a steady state. This occurred when the key parameter, the Rayleigh number, assumed an especially large value, one associated with turbulent convection. And further experimentation with the case delivered the sought-after result that Lorenz had found earlier, and now convincingly found with a simpler model. It built the bridge to chaos theory. The pathway to this exceptional result is explored by revisiting Saltzman’s and Lorenz’s mentorship under V. P. Starr, the authors’ interview with Lorenz in 2002 that complements information in Lorenz’s scientific autobiography, and the authors’ published perspective on Salzman’s 7-mode model.
摘要 1961 年，两位理论气象学家在康涅狄格州哈特福德的旅行者研究中心（TRC）举行了一次为期一天的会议。这两位科学家是巴里-萨尔茨曼（Barry Saltzman）和爱德华-洛伦兹（Edward Lorenz），他们曾是麻省理工学院 V. P. 斯塔尔（V. P. Starr）的门生。在这次会议召开的几年前，洛伦兹发现了以下深刻的结果：在初始条件存在微小误差的情况下，进行大范围天气预报是不可行的。所使用的模型是具有 12 个光谱变量的两级气压模型的地转形式。这些结果是一年前在日本东京举行的第一届数值天气预报（NWP）研讨会上提出的，当时受到了数值天气预报精英、动力学气象学家和实用数值天气预报先驱的怀疑。洛伦兹对萨尔茨曼最近开发的雷利-贝纳德对流模型能产生早先发现的深刻结果抱有微弱的希望。在那个多事的日子里，用萨尔茨曼的 7 模式截断谱模型进行的一次数值实验产生了一个意想不到的结果：模型的 7 个变量无法稳定下来并接近稳定状态。当关键参数雷利数的值特别大（与湍流对流有关）时，就会出现这种情况。进一步的实验证明了洛伦兹早先发现的结果，现在又令人信服地发现了一个更简单的模型。它架起了通向混沌理论的桥梁。通过重温萨尔茨曼和洛伦兹在 V. P. 斯塔尔门下的师徒关系、作者在 2002 年对洛伦兹的访谈（该访谈补充了洛伦兹科学自传中的信息）以及作者发表的关于萨尔茨曼 7 模式模型的观点，我们探索了通往这一非凡结果的道路。
{"title":"The Saltzman-Lorenz Exchange in 1961: Bridge to Chaos Theory","authors":"John M. Lewis, S. Lakshmivarahan","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0157.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0157.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A single-day meeting between two theoretical meteorologists took place in 1961 at the Travelers Research Center (TRC) in Hartford, Connecticut. The two scientists were Barry Saltzman and Edward Lorenz, former proteges of V. P. Starr at MIT. Several years before this meeting, Lorenz discovered the following profound result: extended-range weather forecasting was not feasible in the presence of slight errors in initial conditions. The model used was the geostrophic form of a two-level baroclinic model with twelve spectral variables. These results were presented a year earlier at the First Symposium on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) in Tokyo, Japan, and met with some skepticism from the NWP elite, dynamical meteorologists, and pioneers in operational NWP. Lorenz held faint hope that Saltzman’s recently developed model of Rayleigh- Bénard convection would produce the profound result found earlier. One of the numerical experiments executed that eventful day with Saltzman’s 7-mode truncated spectral model produced an unexpected result: inability of the model’s 7 variables to settle down and approach a steady state. This occurred when the key parameter, the Rayleigh number, assumed an especially large value, one associated with turbulent convection. And further experimentation with the case delivered the sought-after result that Lorenz had found earlier, and now convincingly found with a simpler model. It built the bridge to chaos theory. The pathway to this exceptional result is explored by revisiting Saltzman’s and Lorenz’s mentorship under V. P. Starr, the authors’ interview with Lorenz in 2002 that complements information in Lorenz’s scientific autobiography, and the authors’ published perspective on Salzman’s 7-mode model.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140613656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-12DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0087.1
Erik S Krueger, Tyson E Ochsner, B Wade Brorsen
Abstract The USDA Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) offers financial assistance to farmers and ranchers with grazed forage losses caused by fire or drought. Payments for drought losses are based on the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), which is designed to integrate meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomic drought. Because soil moisture deficit is a more specific measure of agricultural drought, we hypothesized that basing LFP payments on soil moisture observations could better reduce producers’ risk. Therefore, our objectives were to (1) quantify relationships of forage yield with USDM-based LFP payment multipliers and with in situ soil moisture, (2) develop an alternative LFP payment multiplier structure based on in situ soil moisture, and (3) quantify risk reduction using the current and alternative payment structures. We focused on Oklahoma, USA, which has led the nation in LFP payments received and has >25 years of in situ soil moisture observations statewide. Using non-alfalfa hay yield as a surrogate for forage production, we found that LFP payment multiplier values and soil moisture anomaly were each related to yield, and soil moisture anomaly explained 54% of yield variability. However, the USDM-based LFP payment structure sometimes resulted in payments for above average yield, and higher payments did not always correspond with greater yield losses. We developed an alternative soil moisture-based payment structure that reduced financial risk by >20% compared with the current USDM-based structure. Our study identifies an improved LFP payment structure for Oklahoma that can be evaluated and refined in other states or nationwide using other soil moisture data sources.
{"title":"Soil Moisture Information Improves Drought Risk Protection Provided by the USDA Livestock Forage Disaster Program","authors":"Erik S Krueger, Tyson E Ochsner, B Wade Brorsen","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0087.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0087.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The USDA Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) offers financial assistance to farmers and ranchers with grazed forage losses caused by fire or drought. Payments for drought losses are based on the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), which is designed to integrate meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomic drought. Because soil moisture deficit is a more specific measure of agricultural drought, we hypothesized that basing LFP payments on soil moisture observations could better reduce producers’ risk. Therefore, our objectives were to (1) quantify relationships of forage yield with USDM-based LFP payment multipliers and with in situ soil moisture, (2) develop an alternative LFP payment multiplier structure based on in situ soil moisture, and (3) quantify risk reduction using the current and alternative payment structures. We focused on Oklahoma, USA, which has led the nation in LFP payments received and has >25 years of in situ soil moisture observations statewide. Using non-alfalfa hay yield as a surrogate for forage production, we found that LFP payment multiplier values and soil moisture anomaly were each related to yield, and soil moisture anomaly explained 54% of yield variability. However, the USDM-based LFP payment structure sometimes resulted in payments for above average yield, and higher payments did not always correspond with greater yield losses. We developed an alternative soil moisture-based payment structure that reduced financial risk by >20% compared with the current USDM-based structure. Our study identifies an improved LFP payment structure for Oklahoma that can be evaluated and refined in other states or nationwide using other soil moisture data sources.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-09DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0082.1
William Rudisill, Alan Rhoades, Zexuan Xu, Daniel R. Feldman
Abstract Mountains play an outsized role for water resource availability, and the amount and timing of water they provide depends strongly on temperature. To that end, we ask: how well are atmospheric models capturing mountain temperatures? We synthesize results showing that high resolution, regionally relevant climate models produce two-meter air temperatures (T2m) colder than what is observed (a “cold bias”), particularly in snow-covered mid-latitude mountain ranges during winter. We find common cold biases in 44 studies across global mountain ranges, including single-model and multi-model ensembles. We explore the factors driving these biases and examine the physical mechanisms, data limitations, and observational uncertainties behind T2m. Our analysis suggests that the biases are genuine and not due to observation sparsity or resolution mismatches. Cold biases occur primarily on mountain peaks and ridges, whereas valleys are often warm biased. Our literature review suggests that increasing model resolution does not clearly mitigate the bias. By analyzing data from the SAIL field campaign in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, we test various hypotheses related to cold biases, and find that local wind circulations, longwave radiation, and surface-layer parameterizations contribute to the T2m biases in this particular location. We conclude by emphasizing the value of coordinated model evaluation and development efforts in heavily instrumented mountain locations for addressing the root cause(s) of T2m biases and improving predictive understanding of mountain climates.
{"title":"Are atmospheric models too cold in the mountains? The state of science and insights from the SAIL field campaign","authors":"William Rudisill, Alan Rhoades, Zexuan Xu, Daniel R. Feldman","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0082.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0082.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Mountains play an outsized role for water resource availability, and the amount and timing of water they provide depends strongly on temperature. To that end, we ask: how well are atmospheric models capturing mountain temperatures? We synthesize results showing that high resolution, regionally relevant climate models produce two-meter air temperatures (T2m) colder than what is observed (a “cold bias”), particularly in snow-covered mid-latitude mountain ranges during winter. We find common cold biases in 44 studies across global mountain ranges, including single-model and multi-model ensembles. We explore the factors driving these biases and examine the physical mechanisms, data limitations, and observational uncertainties behind T2m. Our analysis suggests that the biases are genuine and not due to observation sparsity or resolution mismatches. Cold biases occur primarily on mountain peaks and ridges, whereas valleys are often warm biased. Our literature review suggests that increasing model resolution does not clearly mitigate the bias. By analyzing data from the SAIL field campaign in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, we test various hypotheses related to cold biases, and find that local wind circulations, longwave radiation, and surface-layer parameterizations contribute to the T2m biases in this particular location. We conclude by emphasizing the value of coordinated model evaluation and development efforts in heavily instrumented mountain locations for addressing the root cause(s) of T2m biases and improving predictive understanding of mountain climates.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140601215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-08DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-24-0082.1
Hans Burchard, Matthew Alford, Manita Chouksey, Giovanni Dematteis, Carsten Eden, Isabelle Giddy, Knut Klingbeil, Arnaud Le Boyer, Dirk Olbers, Julie Pietrzak, Friederike Pollmann, Kurt Polzin, Fabien Roquet, Pablo Sebastia Saez, Sebastiaan Swart, Lars Umlauf, Gunnar Voet, Bethan Wynne-Cattanach
"Linking ocean mixing and overturning circulation" published on 08 Apr 2024 by American Meteorological Society.
美国气象学会于 2024 年 4 月 8 日发表了 "将海洋混合与翻转环流联系起来"。
{"title":"Linking ocean mixing and overturning circulation","authors":"Hans Burchard, Matthew Alford, Manita Chouksey, Giovanni Dematteis, Carsten Eden, Isabelle Giddy, Knut Klingbeil, Arnaud Le Boyer, Dirk Olbers, Julie Pietrzak, Friederike Pollmann, Kurt Polzin, Fabien Roquet, Pablo Sebastia Saez, Sebastiaan Swart, Lars Umlauf, Gunnar Voet, Bethan Wynne-Cattanach","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-24-0082.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0082.1","url":null,"abstract":"\"Linking ocean mixing and overturning circulation\" published on 08 Apr 2024 by American Meteorological Society.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140601346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-08DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0055.1
Christopher K. Uejio, Jane Gilbert, Yoonjung Ahn, Ludovica Martella, Leiqiu Hu, Julia Marturano
Abstract Extreme heat contributes to 8,000 to 12,000 excess U.S. deaths per year. Partly due to increasing summer temperatures and a renewed focus on environmental justice, local governments started new initiatives to manage and adapt to extreme heat. For example, Miami-Dade County, Florida, U.S., appointed Jane Gilbert as the world’s first Chief Heat Officer. This manuscript summarizes Miami- Dade County’s preliminary efforts to build local evidence, engage the community, and rapidly respond to extreme heat. The manuscript’s goal is to expedite the translation of existing tools into mainstream extreme heat, health, and equity planning. The study generated local evidence to identify the places and periods of time with elevated heat related illness using a statistical vulnerability and time series analysis, respectively. The places with the highest severe heat-related illness rates had hotter land surface temperatures and/or higher proportions of people who were outdoor workers, indigenous, living in poverty or mobile homes, and households with children. “Everyday” summer conditions instead of rare heatwaves increase the risk of a heat related death. The Chief Heat Officer convened workshops that engaged 298 unique community members on six cross-sectoral heat topics. Key recommendations included: increasing multi-sectoral heat monitoring and risk communication, building more affordable housing, preserving and expanding greenspace, and creating heat resilience hubs. The activities culminated in a Heat Action Plan, which was completed in less than two years from the receipt of project funding.
{"title":"Rapidly Developing a Community and Evidence Based Heat Action Plan","authors":"Christopher K. Uejio, Jane Gilbert, Yoonjung Ahn, Ludovica Martella, Leiqiu Hu, Julia Marturano","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0055.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0055.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Extreme heat contributes to 8,000 to 12,000 excess U.S. deaths per year. Partly due to increasing summer temperatures and a renewed focus on environmental justice, local governments started new initiatives to manage and adapt to extreme heat. For example, Miami-Dade County, Florida, U.S., appointed Jane Gilbert as the world’s first Chief Heat Officer. This manuscript summarizes Miami- Dade County’s preliminary efforts to build local evidence, engage the community, and rapidly respond to extreme heat. The manuscript’s goal is to expedite the translation of existing tools into mainstream extreme heat, health, and equity planning. The study generated local evidence to identify the places and periods of time with elevated heat related illness using a statistical vulnerability and time series analysis, respectively. The places with the highest severe heat-related illness rates had hotter land surface temperatures and/or higher proportions of people who were outdoor workers, indigenous, living in poverty or mobile homes, and households with children. “Everyday” summer conditions instead of rare heatwaves increase the risk of a heat related death. The Chief Heat Officer convened workshops that engaged 298 unique community members on six cross-sectoral heat topics. Key recommendations included: increasing multi-sectoral heat monitoring and risk communication, building more affordable housing, preserving and expanding greenspace, and creating heat resilience hubs. The activities culminated in a Heat Action Plan, which was completed in less than two years from the receipt of project funding.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-05DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0294.1
David Hogg, Richard Smith, Jennifer Thompson, Ryan Bunker, Rachael Huey, Makenzie J. Krocak
Abstract Tabletop exercises examining weather-related hazards are not uncommon but are often built around somewhat generic scenarios that only touch on the meteorological communication environment at a very shallow level. A recent exercise in central Oklahoma sought to change that. A local emergency manager, personnel from a National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office, and a severe weather researcher with a background in exercise design and facilitation worked together to create and deliver a realistic severe weather simulation. Exercise participants were exposed to detailed forecast information via NWSChat - a dedicated communication tool used to connect NWS forecasters, emergency managers, and media members for real-time information sharing. NWS forecasters were able to both actively play in the exercise due to the use of NWSChat, as well as observe how local decision makers interpreted and utilized the IDSS graphics and short-term forecast updates. The collaborative approach of developing a detailed scenario with numerous real-world Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) graphics, along with the use of NWSChat for real-time delivery, resulted in overwhelmingly positive feedback from the participants. The local emergency management office identified numerous areas for improvement in communicating real-time forecast information across their jurisdiction, along with gaps in current plans and resources. Meanwhile, the NWS forecast office had the opportunity to experiment with using the new NWSChat platform in a high-impact severe weather environment before a real-world event took place. Forecasters also gained insight into current IDSS graphic interpretation, noting areas for improved messaging to end users, such as adding storm motion to existing severe weather graphics.
{"title":"Leveraging Collaborative Partnerships to Enhance NWS and Emergency Management Communications Through Exercising","authors":"David Hogg, Richard Smith, Jennifer Thompson, Ryan Bunker, Rachael Huey, Makenzie J. Krocak","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0294.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0294.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Tabletop exercises examining weather-related hazards are not uncommon but are often built around somewhat generic scenarios that only touch on the meteorological communication environment at a very shallow level. A recent exercise in central Oklahoma sought to change that. A local emergency manager, personnel from a National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office, and a severe weather researcher with a background in exercise design and facilitation worked together to create and deliver a realistic severe weather simulation. Exercise participants were exposed to detailed forecast information via NWSChat - a dedicated communication tool used to connect NWS forecasters, emergency managers, and media members for real-time information sharing. NWS forecasters were able to both actively play in the exercise due to the use of NWSChat, as well as observe how local decision makers interpreted and utilized the IDSS graphics and short-term forecast updates. The collaborative approach of developing a detailed scenario with numerous real-world Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) graphics, along with the use of NWSChat for real-time delivery, resulted in overwhelmingly positive feedback from the participants. The local emergency management office identified numerous areas for improvement in communicating real-time forecast information across their jurisdiction, along with gaps in current plans and resources. Meanwhile, the NWS forecast office had the opportunity to experiment with using the new NWSChat platform in a high-impact severe weather environment before a real-world event took place. Forecasters also gained insight into current IDSS graphic interpretation, noting areas for improved messaging to end users, such as adding storm motion to existing severe weather graphics.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-05DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0063.1
Paola Salio, Hernán Bechis, Bruno Z. Ribeiro, Ernani de Lima Nascimento, Vito Galligani, Fernando Garcia, Lucas Alvarenga, Maria de los Milagros Alvarez Imaz, Daiana Marlene Baissac, María Florencia Barle, Cristian Bastías-Curivil, Marcos Benedicto, Maite Cancelada, Izabelly Carvalho da Costa, Daniela D’Amen, Ramon de Elia, David Eduardo Diaz, Anthony Duarte Páez, Sergio González, Vitor Goede, Julián Goñi, Agustín Granato, Murilo Machado Lopes, Matias Mederos, Matias Menalled, Romina Mezher, Eduardo José Mingo Vega, María Gabriela Nicora, Lucía Pini, Roberto Rondanelli, Juan Jose Ruiz, Nestor Santayana, Laís Santos, Guilherme Schild, Inés Simone, Raul Valenzuela, Yasmin Romina Velazquez, Luciano Vidal, Constanza Inés Villagrán Asiares
Abstract Despite Southern South America being recognized as a hotspot for deep convective storms, little is known about the socio-environmental impacts of high impact weather (HIW) events. Although there have been past efforts to collect severe weather reports in the region, they have been highly fragmented among and within countries, sharing no common protocol, and limited to a particular phenomenon, a very specific region or a short period of time. There is a pressing need for a more comprehensive understanding of the present risks linked to HIW events, specifically deep convective storms, on a global scale as well as their variability and potential future evolution in the context of climate change. A database of high-quality and systematic HIW reports and associated socio-environmental impacts is essential to understand the regional atmospheric conditions leading to hazardous weather, to quantify its predictability and to build robust early warning systems. To tackle this problem and following successful initiatives in other regions of the world, researchers, national weather service members, and weather enthusiasts from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay have embarked on a multi-national collaboration to generate a standardized database of reports of HIW events principally associated with convective storms and their socio-environmental impacts in South America. The goal of this paper is to describe this unprecedented initiative over the region, to summarize first results and to discuss the potential applications of this collaboration.
{"title":"Towards a South American High Impact Weather Reports Database","authors":"Paola Salio, Hernán Bechis, Bruno Z. Ribeiro, Ernani de Lima Nascimento, Vito Galligani, Fernando Garcia, Lucas Alvarenga, Maria de los Milagros Alvarez Imaz, Daiana Marlene Baissac, María Florencia Barle, Cristian Bastías-Curivil, Marcos Benedicto, Maite Cancelada, Izabelly Carvalho da Costa, Daniela D’Amen, Ramon de Elia, David Eduardo Diaz, Anthony Duarte Páez, Sergio González, Vitor Goede, Julián Goñi, Agustín Granato, Murilo Machado Lopes, Matias Mederos, Matias Menalled, Romina Mezher, Eduardo José Mingo Vega, María Gabriela Nicora, Lucía Pini, Roberto Rondanelli, Juan Jose Ruiz, Nestor Santayana, Laís Santos, Guilherme Schild, Inés Simone, Raul Valenzuela, Yasmin Romina Velazquez, Luciano Vidal, Constanza Inés Villagrán Asiares","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0063.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0063.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Despite Southern South America being recognized as a hotspot for deep convective storms, little is known about the socio-environmental impacts of high impact weather (HIW) events. Although there have been past efforts to collect severe weather reports in the region, they have been highly fragmented among and within countries, sharing no common protocol, and limited to a particular phenomenon, a very specific region or a short period of time. There is a pressing need for a more comprehensive understanding of the present risks linked to HIW events, specifically deep convective storms, on a global scale as well as their variability and potential future evolution in the context of climate change. A database of high-quality and systematic HIW reports and associated socio-environmental impacts is essential to understand the regional atmospheric conditions leading to hazardous weather, to quantify its predictability and to build robust early warning systems. To tackle this problem and following successful initiatives in other regions of the world, researchers, national weather service members, and weather enthusiasts from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay have embarked on a multi-national collaboration to generate a standardized database of reports of HIW events principally associated with convective storms and their socio-environmental impacts in South America. The goal of this paper is to describe this unprecedented initiative over the region, to summarize first results and to discuss the potential applications of this collaboration.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-05DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0208.1
Yunyao Li, Daniel Tong, Peewara Makkaroon, Timothy DelSole, Youhua Tang, Patrick Campbell, Barry Baker, Mark Cohen, Anton Darmenov, Ravan Ahmadov, Eric James, Edward Hyer, Peng Xian
Abstract Wildfires pose increasing risks to human health and properties in North America. Due to large uncertainties in fire emission, transport, and chemical transformation, it remains challenging to accurately predict air quality during wildfire events, hindering our collective capability to issue effective early warnings to protect public health and welfare. Here we present a new real-time Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System (HAQES) by leveraging various wildfire smoke forecasts from three U.S. federal agencies (NOAA, NASA, and Navy). Compared to individual models, the HAQES ensemble forecast significantly enhances forecast accuracy. To further enhance forecasting performance, a weighted ensemble forecast approach was introduced and tested. Compared to the unweighted ensemble mean, the multilinear regression weighted ensemble reduced fractional bias by 34% in the major fire regions, false alarm rate by 72%, and increased hit rate by 17%. Finally, we improved the weighted ensemble using quantile regression and weighted regression methods to enhance the forecast of extreme air quality events. The advanced weighted ensemble increased the PM2.5 exceedance hit rate by 55% compared to the ensemble mean. Our findings provide insights into the development of advanced ensemble forecast methods for wildfire air quality, offering a practical way to enhance decision-making support to protect public health.
{"title":"Multi-Agency Ensemble Forecast of Wildfire Air Quality in the United States: Toward Community Consensus of Early Warning","authors":"Yunyao Li, Daniel Tong, Peewara Makkaroon, Timothy DelSole, Youhua Tang, Patrick Campbell, Barry Baker, Mark Cohen, Anton Darmenov, Ravan Ahmadov, Eric James, Edward Hyer, Peng Xian","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0208.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0208.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Wildfires pose increasing risks to human health and properties in North America. Due to large uncertainties in fire emission, transport, and chemical transformation, it remains challenging to accurately predict air quality during wildfire events, hindering our collective capability to issue effective early warnings to protect public health and welfare. Here we present a new real-time Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System (HAQES) by leveraging various wildfire smoke forecasts from three U.S. federal agencies (NOAA, NASA, and Navy). Compared to individual models, the HAQES ensemble forecast significantly enhances forecast accuracy. To further enhance forecasting performance, a weighted ensemble forecast approach was introduced and tested. Compared to the unweighted ensemble mean, the multilinear regression weighted ensemble reduced fractional bias by 34% in the major fire regions, false alarm rate by 72%, and increased hit rate by 17%. Finally, we improved the weighted ensemble using quantile regression and weighted regression methods to enhance the forecast of extreme air quality events. The advanced weighted ensemble increased the PM2.5 exceedance hit rate by 55% compared to the ensemble mean. Our findings provide insights into the development of advanced ensemble forecast methods for wildfire air quality, offering a practical way to enhance decision-making support to protect public health.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-02DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0191.1
Jessica D. Lundquist, Julie Vano, Ethan Gutmann, Daniel Hogan, Eli Schwat, Michael Haugeneder, Emilio Mateo, Steve Oncley, Chris Roden, Elise Osenga, Liz Carver
Abstract Snow is a vital part of water resources, and sublimation may remove 10% to 90% of snowfall from the system. To improve our understanding of the physics that govern sublimation rates, as well as how those rates might change with the climate, we deployed an array of four towers with over 100 instruments from NCAR’s Integrated Surface Flux System from November 2022 to June 2023 in the East River Watershed, Colorado, in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) campaigns. Mass balance observations, snow pits, particle flux sensors, and terrestrial lidar scans of the evolving snowfield demonstrated how blowing snow influences sublimation rates, which we quantified with latent heat fluxes measured by eddy covariance systems at heights 1 to 20 m above the snow surface. Detailed temperature profiles at finer resolutions highlighted the role of the stable boundary layer. Four-stream radiometers indicated the important role of changing albedo in the energy balance and its relationship to water vapor losses. Collectively, these observations span scales from seconds to seasons, from boundary layer turbulence to valley-circulation to mesoscale meteorology. We describe the field campaign, highlights in the observations, and outreach and education products we are creating to facilitate cross-disciplinary dialogue and convey relevant findings to those seeking to better understand Colorado River snow and streamflow.
{"title":"Sublimation of Snow","authors":"Jessica D. Lundquist, Julie Vano, Ethan Gutmann, Daniel Hogan, Eli Schwat, Michael Haugeneder, Emilio Mateo, Steve Oncley, Chris Roden, Elise Osenga, Liz Carver","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0191.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0191.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Snow is a vital part of water resources, and sublimation may remove 10% to 90% of snowfall from the system. To improve our understanding of the physics that govern sublimation rates, as well as how those rates might change with the climate, we deployed an array of four towers with over 100 instruments from NCAR’s Integrated Surface Flux System from November 2022 to June 2023 in the East River Watershed, Colorado, in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) campaigns. Mass balance observations, snow pits, particle flux sensors, and terrestrial lidar scans of the evolving snowfield demonstrated how blowing snow influences sublimation rates, which we quantified with latent heat fluxes measured by eddy covariance systems at heights 1 to 20 m above the snow surface. Detailed temperature profiles at finer resolutions highlighted the role of the stable boundary layer. Four-stream radiometers indicated the important role of changing albedo in the energy balance and its relationship to water vapor losses. Collectively, these observations span scales from seconds to seasons, from boundary layer turbulence to valley-circulation to mesoscale meteorology. We describe the field campaign, highlights in the observations, and outreach and education products we are creating to facilitate cross-disciplinary dialogue and convey relevant findings to those seeking to better understand Colorado River snow and streamflow.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140601305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-01DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-24-0034.1
Chunxue Yang, Romain Bourdallé-Badie, Marie Drevillon, Dillon Amaya, Lotfi Aouf, Ali Aydogdu, Benjamin Barton, Mike Bell, Tim Boyer, Anouk Blauw, James Carton, Tony Candela, Gianpiero Cossarini, Tomasz Dabrowski, Eric de Boisseson, Lee de Mora, Ronan Fablet, Gaël Forget, Yosuke Fujii, Gilles Garric, Valentina Giunta, Peter Salamon, Hans Hersbach, Mélanie Juza, Julien Le Sommer, Matthew Martin, Ronan McAdam, Melisa Menendez Garcia, Joao Morim, Dario Nicolì, Antonio Reppucci, Annette Samuelsen, Raphaëlle Sauzède, Laura Slivinski, Damien Specq, Andrea Storto, Laura Tuomi, Luc Vandenbulcke, Roland Aznar, Jonathan Beuvier, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Valeria Di Biagio, Romain Escudier, Rianne Giesen, Eric Greiner, Karen Guihou, Vasily Korabel, Julien Lamouroux, Stephane Law Chune, Jean- Michel Lellouche, Bruno Levier, Leonardo Lima, Antoine Mangin, Michael Mayer, Angelique Melet, Pietro Miraglio, Charikleia Oikonomou, Julia Pfeffer, Richard Renshaw, Ida Ringgaard, Sulian Thual, Olivier Titaud, Marina Tonani, Simon van Gennip, Karina von Schuckmann, Yann Drillet, Pierre-Yves Le Traon
"Gathering users and developers to shape together the next-generation ocean reanalyses: Ocean reanalyses workshop of the European Copernicus Marine Service" published on 01 Apr 2024 by American Meteorological Society.
{"title":"Gathering users and developers to shape together the next-generation ocean reanalyses: Ocean reanalyses workshop of the European Copernicus Marine Service","authors":"Chunxue Yang, Romain Bourdallé-Badie, Marie Drevillon, Dillon Amaya, Lotfi Aouf, Ali Aydogdu, Benjamin Barton, Mike Bell, Tim Boyer, Anouk Blauw, James Carton, Tony Candela, Gianpiero Cossarini, Tomasz Dabrowski, Eric de Boisseson, Lee de Mora, Ronan Fablet, Gaël Forget, Yosuke Fujii, Gilles Garric, Valentina Giunta, Peter Salamon, Hans Hersbach, Mélanie Juza, Julien Le Sommer, Matthew Martin, Ronan McAdam, Melisa Menendez Garcia, Joao Morim, Dario Nicolì, Antonio Reppucci, Annette Samuelsen, Raphaëlle Sauzède, Laura Slivinski, Damien Specq, Andrea Storto, Laura Tuomi, Luc Vandenbulcke, Roland Aznar, Jonathan Beuvier, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Valeria Di Biagio, Romain Escudier, Rianne Giesen, Eric Greiner, Karen Guihou, Vasily Korabel, Julien Lamouroux, Stephane Law Chune, Jean- Michel Lellouche, Bruno Levier, Leonardo Lima, Antoine Mangin, Michael Mayer, Angelique Melet, Pietro Miraglio, Charikleia Oikonomou, Julia Pfeffer, Richard Renshaw, Ida Ringgaard, Sulian Thual, Olivier Titaud, Marina Tonani, Simon van Gennip, Karina von Schuckmann, Yann Drillet, Pierre-Yves Le Traon","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-24-0034.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0034.1","url":null,"abstract":"\"Gathering users and developers to shape together the next-generation ocean reanalyses: Ocean reanalyses workshop of the European Copernicus Marine Service\" published on 01 Apr 2024 by American Meteorological Society.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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