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The Sundowner Winds Experiment (SWEX) in Santa Barbara, CA: Advancing Understanding and Predictability of Downslope Windstorms in Coastal Environments 加利福尼亚州圣巴巴拉的日落风实验 (SWEX):增进对沿海环境中下坡暴风的了解和可预测性
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-22-0171.1
Leila M. V. Carvalho, Gert-Jan Duine, Craig Clements, Stephan F. J. De Wekker, Harindra J. S. Fernando, David R. Fitzjarrald, Robert G. Fovell, Charles Jones, Zhien Wang, Loren White, Anthony Bucholtz, Matthew J. Brewer, William Brown, Matt Burkhart, Edward Creegan, Min Deng, Marian De Orla-Barille, David Emmitt, Steve Greco, Terry Hock, James Kasic, Kiera Malarkey, Griffin Modjeski, Steven Oncley, Alison Rockwell, Daisuke Seto, Callum Thompson, Holger Vӧmel
Abstract Coastal Santa Barbara is among the most exposed communities to wildfire hazards in southern California. Downslope, dry and gusty windstorms are frequently observed on the south-facing slopes of the Santa Ynez Mountains that separates the Pacific Ocean from the Santa Ynez Valley. These winds, known as “Sundowners”, peak after Sunset and are strong throughout the night and early morning. The Sundowner Winds Experiment (SWEX) was a field campaign funded by the National Science Foundation that took place in Santa Barbara, CA, between 1 April and 15 May 2022. It was a collaborative effort of ten institutions to advance understanding and predictability of Sundowners, while providing rich data sets for developing new theories of downslope windstorms in coastal environments with similar geographic and climatic characteristics. Sundowner spatiotemporal characteristics are controlled by complex interactions among atmospheric processes occurring upstream (Santa Ynez Valley), and downstream due to the influence of a cool and stable marine boundary layer. SWEX was designed to enhance spatial measurements to resolve local circulations and vertical structure from the surface to the mid-troposphere, and from the Santa Barbara Channel to the Santa Ynez Valley. This article discusses how SWEX brought cutting-edge science and the strengths of multiple ground-based and mobile instrument platforms to bear on this important problem. Among them are flux towers, mobile and stationary lidars, wind profilers, ceilometers, radiosondes, and an aircraft equipped with three lidars and a dropsonde system. The unique features observed during SWEX using this network of sophisticated instruments are discussed here.
摘要 圣塔芭芭拉沿海地区是南加州受野火危害最严重的社区之一。在将太平洋与圣塔伊内兹山谷隔开的圣塔伊内兹山脉朝南的山坡上,经常出现下坡、干燥和狂风。这些风被称为 "日落风",在日落之后达到顶峰,整个夜晚和清晨都很强劲。日落风实验(SWEX)是由美国国家科学基金会资助的一项实地活动,于 2022 年 4 月 1 日至 5 月 15 日在加利福尼亚州圣巴巴拉进行。它由十个机构合作完成,目的是加深对日落风的理解,提高日落风的可预测性,同时提供丰富的数据集,用于发展具有类似地理和气候特征的沿海环境中的下坡暴风的新理论。日落风的时空特征受上游(圣塔耶内斯山谷)大气过程之间复杂的相互作用的控制,而下游则受冷凉和稳定的海洋边界层的影响。SWEX 的设计目的是加强空间测量,以解析从地表到对流层中层以及从圣巴巴拉海峡到圣塔-伊内兹山谷的局部环流和垂直结构。本文讨论了 SWEX 如何将尖端科学和多种地面及移动仪器平台的优势用于解决这一重要问题。其中包括通量塔、移动式和固定式激光雷达、风廓线仪、天花板测量仪、无线电探空仪,以及一架配备了三个激光雷达和一个滴度计系统的飞机。本文讨论了利用这一精密仪器网络在 SWEX 期间观测到的独特特征。
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引用次数: 0
A glimpse into the future: The 2023 ocean temperature and sea-ice extremes in the context of longer-term climate change 未来一瞥:长期气候变化背景下的 2023 年海洋温度和海冰极端情况
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0209.1
Till Kuhlbrodt, Ranjini Swaminathan, Paulo Ceppi, Thomas Wilder
Abstract In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea-surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in low sea-ice extent in the Southern Ocean, outside the 4-sigma envelope of the 1982-2011 daily timeseries. Earth’s net global energy imbalance (12 months up to September 2023) amounts to +1.9 W/m2 as part of a remarkably large upward trend, ensuring further heating of the ocean. However, the regional radiation budget over the North Atlantic does not show signs of a suggested significant step increase from less negative aerosol forcing since 2020. While the temperature in the top 100 m of the global ocean has been rising in all basins since about 1980, specifically the Atlantic basin has continued to further heat up since 2016, potentially contributing to the extreme SST. Similarly, salinity in the top 100 m of the ocean has increased in recent years specifically in the Atlantic basin, and in addition in about 2015 a substantial negative trend for sea-ice extent in the Southern Ocean began. Analysing climate and Earth System model simulations of the future, we find that the extreme SST in the North Atlantic and the extreme in Southern Ocean sea-ice extent in 2023 lie at the fringe of the expected mean climate change for a global surface-air temperature warming level (GWL) of 1.5°C, and closer to the average at a 3.0°C GWL. Understanding the regional and global drivers of these extremes is indispensable for assessing frequency and impacts of similar events in the coming years.
摘要 2023 年,在 1982-2011 年每日时间序列的 4 西格玛包络线之外,我们看到北大西洋的高海面温度(SST)和南大洋的低海冰范围出现了非同寻常的极值。地球的全球净能量失衡(截至 2023 年 9 月的 12 个月)达到+1.9 W/m2,呈显著上升趋势,确保海洋进一步升温。然而,自 2020 年以来,北大西洋的区域辐射预算并没有显示出气溶胶负强迫的显著增加。自 1980 年以来,全球所有海盆顶部 100 米处的温度都在上升,而大西洋海盆自 2016 年以来则持续进一步升温,这可能是造成极端海温的原因之一。同样,海洋顶部 100 米的盐度近年来也在上升,特别是在大西洋海盆,此外,大约在 2015 年,南大洋海冰范围开始出现大幅负增长趋势。通过对未来气候和地球系统模式模拟的分析,我们发现 2023 年北大西洋的极端海温和南大洋的极端海冰范围位于全球地表-空气温度升温水平(GWL)为 1.5°C 时预期平均气候变化的边缘,而更接近全球地表-空气温度升温水平为 3.0°C 时的平均值。要评估未来几年类似事件的频率和影响,就必须了解这些极端事件的区域和全球驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Attribution of the August 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Southern China: Role of Dynamical and Thermodynamical Processes 2022 年 8 月中国南方极端热浪的归因:动力学和热力学过程的作用
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-16 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0175.1
Hainan Gong, Kangjie Ma, Zhiyuan Hu, Zizhen Dong, Yuanyuan Ma, Wen Chen, Renguang Wu, Lin Wang
Abstract We estimate that anthropogenic forcing caused half of the observed temperature anomaly during the August 2022 heatwave in southern China. Thermodynamical processes, especially soil moisture–SAT feedback, amplified the heatwave.
摘要 我们估计,2022 年 8 月中国南方热浪期间观测到的温度异常有一半是人为强迫造成的。热动力过程,特别是土壤水分-卫星反馈,放大了热浪。
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引用次数: 0
Developing Rapid Response Protocols for Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones 为迅速增强的热带气旋制定快速反应规程
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-15 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0327.1
Christian M. Appendini
"Developing Rapid Response Protocols for Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones" published on 15 Jan 2024 by American Meteorological Society.
美国气象学会于 2024 年 1 月 15 日发表了 "为迅速增强的热带气旋制定快速反应规程"。
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引用次数: 0
Charting the future of the FLUXNET network 规划 FLUXNET 网络的未来
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-11 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0316.1
Kyle B. Delwiche, J. Nelson, N. Kowalska, C. E. Moore, G. Shirkey, T. Tarin, J. R. Cleverly, T.F. Keenan
"Charting the future of the FLUXNET network" published on 11 Jan 2024 by American Meteorological Society.
美国气象学会于 2024 年 1 月 11 日发表的 "描绘 FLUXNET 网络的未来"。
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引用次数: 0
Expanding the Concept of Knowledge Transition through Social Science Research 通过社会科学研究拓展知识过渡的概念
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0310.1
Megan Porter, Rodolfo Hernández, Blake Checkoway, Erik R. Nielsen, Castle Williamsberg, Gina Eosco, Katy Christian, Ashley Morris, Erica Grow Cei, Keely Patelski, Jen Henderson
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引用次数: 0
Vientos - A new satellite mission concept for 3D wind measurements by combining passive water vapor sounders with Doppler wind lidar Vientos - 结合被动水汽探测仪和多普勒风激光雷达进行三维风力测量的新卫星任务概念
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-22-0283.1
Xubin Zeng, Hui Su, Svetla Hristova-Veleva, Derek J. Posselt, Robert Atlas, Shannon T. Brown, Ross D. Dixon, Eric Fetzer, Thomas J. Galarneau, Michael Hardesty, Jonathan H. Jiang, Pekka P. Kangaslahti, Amir Ouyed, Thomas S. Pagano, Oliver Reitebuch, Remy Roca, Ad Stoffelen, Sara Tucker, Anna Wilson, Longtao Wu, Igor Yanovsky
Abstract It is challenging to accurately characterize the three-dimensional distribution of horizontal wind vectors (known as 3D winds). Feature-matching satellite cloud top or water vapor fields have been used for decades to retrieve atmospheric motion vectors, but this approach is mostly limited to a single and uncertain pressure level at a given time. Satellite wind lidar measurements are expected to provide more accurate data and capture the line-of-sight wind for clear skies, within cirrus clouds, and above thick clouds, but only along a curtain parallel to the satellite track. Here we propose Vientos – a new satellite mission concept that combines 2 or more passive water vapor sounders with Doppler wind lidar to measure 3D winds. The need for 3D wind observations is highlighted by inconsistencies in reanalysis estimates, particularly under precipitating conditions. Recent studies have shown that 3D winds can be retrieved using water vapor observations from two polar-orbiting satellites separated by 50 minutes, with the help of advanced optical flow algorithms. These winds can be improved through the incorporation of a small number of co-located higher-accuracy measurements via machine learning. The Vientos concept would enable simultaneous measurements of 3D winds, temperature, and humidity, and is expected to have a significant impact on scientific research, weather prediction, and other applications. For example, it can help better understand and predict the preconditions for organized convection. This article summarizes recent results, presents the Vientos mission architecture, and discusses implementation scenarios for a 3D wind mission under current budget constraints.
摘要 精确描述水平风矢量(称为三维风)的三维分布具有挑战性。几十年来,人们一直使用特征匹配卫星云顶或水汽场来检索大气运动矢量,但这种方法大多局限于特定时间内单一且不确定的气压水平。卫星风激光雷达测量有望提供更精确的数据,并捕捉晴朗天空、卷云内部和厚云层上方的视线风,但只能沿着与卫星轨道平行的帘幕进行。在此,我们提出了 Vientos--一种新的卫星任务概念,将 2 个或更多的被动水蒸气探测仪与多普勒风激光雷达结合起来测量三维风。三维风观测的必要性突出表现在再分析估计值的不一致性上,特别是在降水条件下。最近的研究表明,在先进光流算法的帮助下,利用两颗相隔 50 分钟的极轨卫星的水汽观测数据,可以检索到三维风。通过机器学习,结合少量共定位的高精度测量,可以改进这些风向。Vientos 概念可同时测量三维风、温度和湿度,预计将对科学研究、天气预报和其他应用产生重大影响。例如,它有助于更好地了解和预测有组织对流的先决条件。本文总结了最新成果,介绍了 Vientos 任务架构,并讨论了在当前预算限制下三维风任务的实施方案。
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引用次数: 0
Hydrological Projections under CMIP5 and CMIP6: Sources and Magnitudes of Uncertainty CMIP5 和 CMIP6 下的水文预测:不确定性的来源和程度
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-08 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0104.1
Yi Wu, Chiyuan Miao, Louise Slater, Xuewei Fan, Yuanfang Chai, Soroosh Sorooshian
Abstract Projections of future hydrological conditions rely largely on global climate models, but model performance varies greatly. In this study, we investigated projected changes in runoff (R), precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture (SM) based on the fifth and sixth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) and quantified the uncertainties of their projected changes on annual and seasonal scales. The results indicate that all four hydrological variables show an increase over most of the global land: annual projections of R, P, ET, and SM from CMIP6 increase in 72%, 81%, 82%, and 66% of the global land area, respectively, under a high emissions scenario during the period 2080–99 relative to 1970–99. We estimated the uncertainties in CMIP6 from different sources on an annual scale and found that model uncertainty dominates the total projected uncertainties during the twenty-first century [76% (R), 73% (P), 89% (ET), and 95% (SM) in the 2090s], and the contribution of internal variability decreases with time. The low-latitude regions have the greatest uncertainty in hydrological projections. In CMIP6, the uncertainty of projected changes in P contributes the most to the uncertainty of projected changes in R, with a contribution of 93% on annual scale, followed by ET and SM. Overall, the performances of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are similar in terms of hydrological changes and the composition of their uncertainties. This study provides a theoretical reference for the further improvement and development of hydrological components in global climate models.
摘要 对未来水文条件的预测主要依赖于全球气候模式,但模式的性能差异很大。在本研究中,我们根据耦合模式相互比较项目(CMIP5 和 CMIP6)的第五和第六阶段,研究了径流(R)、降水(P)、蒸散(ET)和土壤湿度(SM)的预测变化,并量化了它们在年度和季节尺度上的预测变化的不确定性。结果表明,在全球大部分陆地上,所有四个水文变量都出现了增长:与 1970-99 年相比,在 2080-99 年期间的高排放情景下,CMIP6 预测的 R、P、ET 和 SM 的年增长率在全球陆地上分别为 72%、81%、82% 和 66%。我们按年估算了 CMIP6 中不同来源的不确定性,发现模型的不确定性在 21 世纪的总预测不确定性中占主导地位[2090 年代为 76%(R)、73%(P)、89%(ET)和 95%(SM)],而内部变率的贡献则随着时间的推移而减小。低纬度地区水文预测的不确定性最大。在 CMIP6 中,预测的 P 变化的不确定性对预测的 R 变化的不确定性影响最大,在年尺度上占 93%,其次是 ET 和 SM。总体而言,CMIP5 和 CMIP6 模型在水文变化及其不确定性构成方面表现相似。这项研究为进一步改进和发展全球气候模式中的水文成分提供了理论参考。
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引用次数: 0
Fostering science-industry connections in Australia’s severe-storm science community 在澳大利亚暴风雨科学界促进科学与产业的联系
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-05 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0325.1
Timothy H. Raupach, Joshua S. Soderholm, Joanna Aldridge
"Fostering science-industry connections in Australia’s severe-storm science community" published on 05 Jan 2024 by American Meteorological Society.
美国气象学会于 2024 年 1 月 5 日发表了 "在澳大利亚暴风雨科学界促进科学与产业的联系 "一文。
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引用次数: 0
Improving the Science for Wildland Fire Prediction at S2S Scales 提高 S2S 尺度野地火灾预测的科学性
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-04 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0184.1
D.D. Turner, L. Ott, P.F. Steblein, M. Stieglitz, O. Tweedy, J. Furman, C.S. James
Abstract The size, duration, impact, and cost of wildland fire is increasing over the last several decades. A recent ICAMS-sponsored workshop focused on the scientific questions and challenges associated with subseasonal-to-seasonal wildfire outlooks. Opinions from this workshop, including recommended cross-agency motivation and activities, are provided.
摘要 在过去几十年中,野外火灾的规模、持续时间、影响和成本都在不断增加。最近,国际干旱和半干旱研究中心(ICAMS)主办了一次研讨会,重点讨论与次季节到季节性野火展望相关的科学问题和挑战。本报告提供了此次研讨会的意见,包括建议的跨机构动机和活动。
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引用次数: 0
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Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
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