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COVID Impacts Cause Critical Gaps in the Indian Ocean Observing System COVID 影响导致印度洋观测系统出现严重缺口
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-22-0270.1
Janet Sprintall, Motoki Nagura, Juliet Hermes, M. K. Roxy, Michael J. McPhaden, E. Pattabhi Rama Rao, Srinivasa Kumar Tummala, Sidney Thurston, Jing Li, Mathieu Belbeoch, Victor Turpin
Abstract Observing and understanding the state of the Indian Ocean and its influence on climate and maritime resources is of critical importance to the populous nations that rim its border. Acute gaps have occurred in the Indian Ocean observing system, which underpins monitoring and forecasting of regional climate, since the start of the COVID pandemic. The pandemic disrupted the deployment and maintenance cruises for the observational array and also resulted in supply chain issues for procurement and refurbishment of equipment. In particular, the observational platforms that provide key measurements of upper ocean heat variability have experienced serious multi-year declines. There is now record-low data reporting and the platforms that are successfully reporting are old and quickly surpassing their expected period of reliable operation. The overall impact on the observing system will take a few years to fully comprehend. In the meantime, there is a critical need to document the gaps that have appeared over the past few years and how this will impact our ability to improve understanding and model representations of the real world that support regional weather and climate forecasts. The article outlines the expected slow road to recovery for the Indian Ocean observing system, documents case studies of successful international collaborative efforts that will revive the observing system and provides guidelines for resilience from unexpected external factors in the future.
摘要 观测和了解印度洋的状况及其对气候和海洋资源的影响,对印度洋沿岸的人口众多的国家至关重要。自 COVID 大流行开始以来,印度洋观测系统出现了严重的缺口,而该系统是监测和预测区域气候的基础。大流行病扰乱了观测阵列的部署和维护巡航,也造成了设备采购和翻新的供应链问题。特别是对上层海洋热量变化进行关键测量的观测平台出现了严重的多年下降。目前,数据报告数量创历史新低,而且成功报告的平台已经老化,很快就会超过其预期的可靠运行期。对观测系统的总体影响需要几年时间才能完全了解。在此期间,我们亟需记录过去几年中出现的差距,以及这将如何影响我们提高对现实世界的理解和模型描述能力,从而支持区域天气和气候预报。这篇文章概述了印度洋观测系统预期的缓慢恢复之路,记录了成功的国际合作努力案例研究,这些努力将使观测系统恢复活力,并为今后抵御意外外部因素的影响提供指导。
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引用次数: 0
Can we do better at teaching mathematics to undergraduate atmospheric science students? 我们能否更好地向大气科学本科生教授数学?
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-02-13 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-22-0245.1
Elizabeth M. Page, Samuel S. P. Shen, Richard C. J. Somerville
"Can we do better at teaching mathematics to undergraduate atmospheric science students?" published on 13 Feb 2024 by American Meteorological Society.
"美国气象学会于 2024 年 2 月 13 日发表了 "我们能否更好地向大气科学本科生教授数学?
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引用次数: 0
The Signal-to-Noise Paradox in Climate Forecasts: Revisiting our Understanding and Identifying Future Priorities 气候预测中的信噪比悖论:重新审视我们的理解并确定未来的优先事项
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-02-12 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-24-0019.1
Antje Weisheimer, Laura H. Baker, Jochen Bröcker, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Dan L.R. Hodson, Tim N. Palmer, Jon I. Robson, Adam A. Scaife, James A. Screen, Theodore G. Shepherd, Doug M. Smith, Rowan T. Sutton
"The Signal-to-Noise Paradox in Climate Forecasts: Revisiting our Understanding and Identifying Future Priorities" published on 12 Feb 2024 by American Meteorological Society.
"气候预测中的信噪比悖论:美国气象学会于 2024 年 2 月 12 日出版的《气候预测中的信噪比悖论:重新审视我们的理解并确定未来的优先事项》。
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引用次数: 0
Record High 2022 September-Mean Temperature in Western North America 北美西部 2022 年 9 月平均气温创历史新高
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0148.1
Jinbo Xie, Qi Tang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Wuyin Lin
Abstract Human-induced warming is estimated to have increased occurrence probability (magnitude) of the record-breaking September 2022 heat event in western North America by 6–67 times (0.6–1 K) by E3SMv2 and even higher by coupled regional refined model (RRM) simulations.
摘要 据 E3SMv2 估计,人类引起的气候变暖使北美西部 2022 年 9 月破纪录高温事件的发生概率(幅度)增加了 6-67 倍(0.6-1 K),而耦合区域精炼模型(RRM)模拟的发生概率(幅度)甚至更高。
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引用次数: 0
Advances in machine learning techniques can assist across a variety of stages in sea ice applications 机器学习技术的进步可为海冰应用的各个阶段提供帮助
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0332.1
Clare Eayrs, Won Sang Lee, Emilia Jin, Jean-François Lemieux, François Massonnet, Martin Vancoppenolle, Lorenzo Zampieri, Luke G. Bennetts, Ed Blockley, Eui-Seok Chung, Alexander D. Fraser, Yoo-geun Ham, Jungho Im, Baek-min Kim, Beong-Hoon Kim, Jinsuk Kim, Joo-Hong Kim, Seong-Joong Kim, Seung Hee Kim, Anton Korosov, Choon-Ki Lee, Donghyuck Lee, Hyun-Ju Lee, Jeong-Gil Lee, Jiyeon Lee, Jisung Na, In-woo Park, Jikang Park, Xianwei Wang, Shiming Xu, Sukyoung Yun
"Advances in machine learning techniques can assist across a variety of stages in sea ice applications" published on 01 Feb 2024 by American Meteorological Society.
"美国气象学会于 2024 年 2 月 1 日发表了《机器学习技术的进步可为海冰应用的各个阶段提供帮助》一文。
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引用次数: 0
Envisioning the Future of Community Physics 展望社区物理的未来
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-24-0001.1
Grant Firl, Ligia Bernardet, Lulin Xue, Dustin Swales, Laura Fowler, Courtney Peverly, Ming Xue, Fanglin Yang
"Envisioning the Future of Community Physics" published on 31 Jan 2024 by American Meteorological Society.
"美国气象学会于 2024 年 1 月 31 日出版的《展望社区物理学的未来》。
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引用次数: 0
Geostationary satellite-derived positioning of a tropical cyclone center using artificial intelligence algorithms over the western North Pacific 利用人工智能算法对北太平洋西部热带气旋中心进行地球静止卫星定位
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0130.1
Chang-Hoi Ho, Donggyu Hyeon, Minhee Chang, Greg McFarquhar, Seong-Hee Won
Abstract Artificial intelligence (AI) models were developed to determine the center of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific. These models integrated information from six channels of geostationary satellite imagery: the brightness temperature of four infrared (IR) and one shortwave IR channels, as well as the reflectivity of one visible channel. The first model is a convolutional neural network designed for spatial data processing, and the second is a convolutional long short-term memory model that effectively captures spatiotemporal information. For training, verification, and testing purposes, spatial images from six channels were obtained from the Japanese Himawari-8 satellite from 2016–2021. The position of the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast 6- or 12-h prediction was assigned as an initial value to the AI models. Errors in the initial value were 20–50 km compared to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center best track, depending on TC intensity. Weak (strong) TCs exhibited large (small) errors. This error dependency was found in Automated Rotational Center Hurricane Eye Retrieval (ARCHER) product, which is currently used by several operational organizations. ARCHER errors were typically small when observations from both geostationary and polar orbiting satellites were included. Significant errors remained in the absence of microwave channel information from polar orbiting satellites. This study successfully developed two AI models that consistently determined the location of the TC center using only six-channel images from geostationary satellites. These models exhibited comparable or better performance than the ARCHER products. The newly developed AI models can potentially be implemented for operational use.
摘要 开发了人工智能(AI)模型来确定北太平洋西部的热带气旋(TC)中心。这些模型综合了来自六个地球静止卫星图像通道的信息:四个红外(IR)和一个短波 IR 通道的亮度温度,以及一个可见光通道的反射率。第一个模型是为空间数据处理而设计的卷积神经网络,第二个模型是有效捕捉时空信息的卷积长短期记忆模型。为了进行训练、验证和测试,我们从日本 "向日葵8号 "卫星上获取了2016-2021年期间六个频道的空间图像。欧洲中期天气预报中心 6 小时或 12 小时预测的位置被指定为人工智能模型的初始值。与联合台风警报中心的最佳路径相比,初始值的误差为 20-50 公里,具体取决于热带气旋的强度。弱(强)热带气旋的误差较大(较小)。在自动旋转中心飓风眼检索(ARCHER)产品中也发现了这种误差依赖性,该产品目前被多个业务机构使用。当包括地球静止轨道和极地轨道卫星的观测数据时,ARCHER 的误差通常较小。如果没有极地轨道卫星的微波信道信息,误差仍然很大。这项研究成功地开发了两个人工智能模型,仅使用地球静止卫星的六信道图像就能一致地确定热气旋中心的位置。这些模型表现出与 ARCHER 产品相当甚至更好的性能。新开发的人工智能模型可用于实际操作。
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引用次数: 0
Anthropogenic Contribution to the Unprecedented 2022 Midsummer Extreme High-Temperature Event in Southern China 人为因素对中国南方 2022 年仲夏史无前例的极端高温事件的影响
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-30 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0199.1
Chenyu Cao, Xiaodan Guan, Chao Li, Zhaokui Gao, Tonghui Gu
Anthropogenic influence contributed approximately 61% to the extreme high-temperature event in southern China in midsummer 2022, according to a dynamic adjustment methodology and supported by optimal fingerprinting analysis of CMIP6 models.
根据动态调整方法,并在 CMIP6 模型优化指纹分析的支持下,人类活动对 2022 年仲夏中国南方极端高温事件的影响约占 61%。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring coupled fire-atmosphere dynamics: The California Fire Dynamics Experiment (CalFiDE) 测量火灾-大气耦合动态:加州火灾动态实验(CalFiDE)
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-30 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0012.1
Brian J. Carroll, W. Alan Brewer, Edward Strobach, Neil Lareau, Steven S. Brown, M. Miguel Valero, Adam Kochanski, Craig B. Clements, Ralph Kahn, Katherine T. Junghenn Noyes, Amanda Makowiecki, Maxwell W. Holloway, Michael Zucker, Kathleen Clough, Jack Drucker, Kristen Zuraski, Jeff Peischl, Brandi McCarty, Richard Marchbanks, Scott Sandberg, Sunil Baidar, Yelena L. Pichugina, Robert M. Banta, Siyuan Wang, Andrew Klofas, Braeden Winters, Tyler Salas
Abstract The social, economic, and ecological impacts of wildfires are increasing over much of the U.S. and globally, partially due to changing climate and build-up of fuels from past forest management practices. This creates a need to improve coupled fire-atmosphere forecast models. However, model performance is difficult to evaluate due to scarcity of observations for many key fire-atmosphere interactions, including updrafts and plume injection height, plume entrainment processes, fire intensity and rate-of-spread, and plume chemistry. Intensive observations of such fire-atmosphere interactions during active wildfires are rare due to the logistical challenges and scales involved. The California Fire Dynamics Experiment (CalFiDE) was designed to address these observational needs, using Doppler lidars, high-resolution multispectral imaging, and in-situ air quality instruments on a NOAA Twin Otter research aircraft, and Doppler lidars, radar, and other instrumentation on multiple ground-based mobile platforms. Five wildfires were studied across northern California and southern Oregon over 16 flight days from 28 August to 25 September 2022, including a breadth of fire stages from large blow-up days to smoldering air quality observations. Missions were designed to optimize the observation of the spatial structure and temporal evolution of each fire from early afternoon until sunset during multiple consecutive days. The coordination of the mobile platforms enabled four-dimensional sampling strategies during CalFiDE that will improve understanding of fire-atmosphere dynamics, aiding in model development and prediction capability. Satellite observations contributed aerosol measurements and regional context. This article summarizes the scientific objectives, platforms and instruments deployed, coordinated sampling strategies, and presents first results.
摘要 在美国和全球大部分地区,野火对社会、经济和生态的影响日益严重,部分原因是气候变化和过去的森林管理措施造成的燃料堆积。这就需要改进火灾-大气耦合预报模型。然而,由于缺乏对许多关键的火灾-大气相互作用的观测,包括上升气流和羽流注入高度、羽流夹带过程、火灾强度和蔓延速度以及羽流化学反应,因此很难对模型性能进行评估。由于所涉及的后勤挑战和规模,在野火活跃期间对这种火-大气相互作用进行密集观测的情况非常罕见。加利福尼亚火灾动态实验(CalFiDE)旨在满足这些观测需求,在 NOAA 双水獭研究飞机上使用多普勒激光雷达、高分辨率多光谱成像和现场空气质量仪器,并在多个地面移动平台上使用多普勒激光雷达、雷达和其他仪器。在 2022 年 8 月 28 日至 9 月 25 日的 16 个飞行日里,对加利福尼亚州北部和俄勒冈州南部的五处野火进行了研究,包括从大火焚烧日到燃烧的空气质量观测等各种火灾阶段。飞行任务的设计旨在优化对每场火灾的空间结构和时间演变的观测,观测时间为连续多天从下午到日落。移动平台的协调使 CalFiDE 期间的四维采样策略得以实现,这将增进对火灾-大气动态的了解,有助于模型开发和预测能力的提高。卫星观测为气溶胶测量和区域背景提供了帮助。本文概述了科学目标、部署的平台和仪器、协调采样策略,并介绍了初步成果。
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引用次数: 0
GeoXO: NOAA’s Future Geostationary Satellite System GeoXO:诺阿未来的地球静止卫星系统
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-29 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0048.1
Daniel T. Lindsey, Andrew K. Heidinger, Pamela C. Sullivan, Joel McCorkel, Timothy J. Schmit, Michelle Tomlinson, Ryan Vandermeulen, Gregory J. Frost, Shobha Kondragunta, Scott Rudlosky
Abstract Geostationary Extended Observations, or GeoXO, is NOAA’s future geostationary satellite constellation, set to launch in the early 2030s and operate into the 2050s. Given changes to the Earth system, improvements in technology, and expanding needs of satellite data users, GeoXO will extend NOAA’s current observation suite by adding three new instruments and one new spacecraft. Improved versions of the imager and lightning mapper will again be placed on East and West satellites, where they will monitor severe storms, tropical cyclones, fires, and other hazards. They will be joined by an ocean color instrument designed for detection of harmful algal blooms, phytoplankton, chlorophyll-a, and other constituents. The third geostationary spacecraft will be placed in the center of the U.S. and will carry a hyperspectral infrared sounder, an atmospheric composition instrument, and potentially a partner payload. Radiances from the sounder will be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models to improve forecasts, and sounder-derived retrievals of vertical profiles of temperature and water vapor will allow forecasters to detect and track areas of enhanced instability. Retrievals of pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide and ozone from the new atmospheric composition instrument along with trace gas measurements from the sounder will be used to improve air quality monitoring, forecasts, and warnings in addition to climate monitoring. Once complete, the GeoXO constellation will contribute to an international “geo ring” of satellites that will be used for worldwide weather, oceans, climate, and air quality monitoring. This revolutionary new geostationary satellite constellation will provide critical observations for a changing Earth system.
Abstract Geostationary Extended Observations, or GeoXO, is NOAA's future geostationary satellite constellation, set to launch in early 2030s and operate into the 2050s.鉴于地球系统的变化、技术的改进以及卫星数据用户需求的不断扩大,GeoXO 将通过增加三个新仪器和一个新航天器来扩展 NOAA 目前的观测套件。改进版的成像仪和闪电绘图仪将再次安装在东西方卫星上,监测强风暴、热带气旋、火灾和其他灾害。此外,还将有一个海洋颜色仪器加入它们的行列,该仪器旨在探测有害藻类繁殖、浮游植物、叶绿素-a 和其他成分。第三个地球静止航天器将放置在美国的中心位置,将携带一个高光谱红外探测仪、一个大气成分仪器以及可能的一个伙伴有效载荷。探测仪的辐射将被同化到数值天气预报模型中,以改进预报,探测仪对温度和水汽垂直剖面的检索将使预报员能够探测和跟踪不稳定性增强的区域。除了气候监测外,新的大气成分仪器对二氧化氮和臭氧等污染物的检索以及探测仪对痕量气体的测量将用于改进空气质量监测、预报和预警。一旦完成,GeoXO 卫星星座将为国际卫星 "地球环 "做出贡献,该卫星将用于全球天气、海洋、气候和空气质量监测。这一革命性的新地球静止卫星星座将为不断变化的地球系统提供重要的观测数据。
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