Asia and the Global Economy最新文献

South Korea has proven resilient through crises. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Korea has used testing and contact tracing to keep the number of cases per capita far below those in the U.S. and Europe. This paper uses sectoral stock returns to gauge the impact of the pandemic on the Korean economy. The results indicate that industrial machinery stocks have doubled in value in the eight months since the crisis hit. Other sectors that benefit individuals hunkered at home such as consumer digital services, software and computer services, leisure goods, and electronic entertainment have also done well. On the other hand, sectors providing services such as travel and leisure, casinos and gambling, and convenience stores have languished. The crisis has benefited sectors producing goods and employing higher-skilled workers and harmed sectors providing services and employing lower-skilled workers. This risks perpetuating disparities that existed in Korea before the pandemic.

Policy makers in the Asia Economic Community (AEC) engaged in the integration of the countries in the region have so far focused their attention on measures affecting commodity markets. Integration of investment activities should follow in the future. To achieve integration, the policy makers will have to harmonize investment rules. This paper discusses some of the major theoretical and empirical issues of investment governance. The theory is quite clear that, in most cases, cooperation and harmonization of investment rules should be beneficial for countries, a conclusion that is strongly supported by empirical evidence. However, the theory is less clear about specific rules. Though it is still evolving, the theory does provide useful guidance to policy makers in the AEC for negotiating more complete and efficient contracts involving foreign investment.

Twenty years of debate regarding the restructuring of the Chinese freight railway have failed to yield a consensus. Early policy statements favoring the creation of above-the-rail competition over a monopoly infrastructure – the “European” model of rail restructuring – have broadened into a lively policy and scholarly debate that includes as an alternative the division of the system into competing vertically integrated railways – the “Americas” model of restructuring. To date, however, there have been no tangible reform steps beyond organizational restructuring, the construction of new coal railroads, some with private-sector participation, and the introduction of scheduled container service between China and Europe. In this paper we argue in favor of the Americas model as a basis for restructuring and offer two alternative scenarios for the creation of multiple vertically integrated freight railways. Both plans enable competition between independent firms and routes for import/export traffic, one a southern, One Belt, One Road path, the other a northern path via the Trans-Siberian Railway.

This paper reconsiders the narratives surrounding Japan's economic performance since the 1980s in relation to the experiences of the U.S. and the Eurozone. There are important differences between these three economies and some striking parallels. It is found that the poor reputation of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is, at times, underserved. To be sure, there were periods of excessive tightness in policy, but the same is true for the other two economies considered. Indeed, the BoJ has been more credible than the other two central banks considered at various times over the past three decades.

In addition, a look back at BoJ over the decades does not provide much support the hypothesis that a significant policy break translates into economic success. Instead, smaller changes are just as likely to lead to a tipping point with significant consequences. Indeed, some narrative-based significant regime shifts do not show in the data.