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Adaptation measures to alleviate degradation of urban mobility by urban flooding in Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand 缓解泰国乌汶叻差他尼城市洪水造成的城市交通退化的适应措施
Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eastsj.2024.100145
Noriyasu Tsumita , Hiroki Kikuchi , Sittha Jaensirisak , Günter Emberger , Atsushi Fukuda

Since floods caused by overflowing rivers are increasing in Southeast Asia cities, reducing urban mobility, adaptation measures are required to cope with this situation. One possible measure would be to develop transportation facilities to make them passable even during flooding conditions. Another measure is to encourage people to relocate from high-risk areas to low-risk areas. Implementing an appropriate combination of these two different adaptation measures is necessary. However, there is limited research to assess the impacts of adaptation measures on flood risk and urban activity. Therefore, this study developed an urban adaptation model that could assess mobility and land use for Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand, and analyzed to what extent the decrease in urban mobility can be alleviated by combining these adaptation measures. It showed that a combination of both adaptation measures could ensure mobility under flood conditions, with benefits from travel time reduction estimated at up to 230.44 million baht (6.36 million USD) over 20 years.

由于东南亚城市因河流泛滥而引发的洪水日益增多,城市流动性降低,因此需要采取适应措施来应对这种情况。可行的措施之一是发展交通设施,使其在洪水泛滥时也能通行。另一项措施是鼓励人们从高风险地区搬迁到低风险地区。有必要将这两种不同的适应措施适当结合起来。然而,对适应措施对洪水风险和城市活动的影响进行评估的研究十分有限。因此,本研究开发了一个城市适应模型,可评估泰国乌汶叻差他尼的流动性和土地使用情况,并分析了结合这些适应措施可在多大程度上缓解城市流动性下降的问题。研究结果表明,将这两种适应措施结合起来可确保洪水条件下的流动性,预计在 20 年内可从减少出行时间中获得高达 2.3044 亿泰铢(636 万美元)的收益。
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引用次数: 0
The heterogeneity in commuters' travel behaviors toward different types of ride-hailing services: The case of Hanoi, Vietnam 乘客对不同类型叫车服务的出行行为的异质性:越南河内的案例
Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eastsj.2024.100126
The Huy Tran , Shinji Tanaka , Hoang-Tung Nguyen

This study addresses the lack of knowledge regarding the diversity in commuter travel behavior, particularly the effects of different types of ride-hailing services (RHS). It focuses on the distinct impacts of motorcycle-based RHS (MRHS) and car-based RHS (CRHS) on user behaviors. By applying multinomial logit and bivariate probit regression analyses to data from 500 RHS users gathered in March 2023, the study reveals that increases in income and personal vehicle ownership have contrasting effects on MRHS and CRHS usage. Notably, MRHS usage is positively associated with employing RHS as a feeder mode to metro stations, while CRHS usage demonstrates a negative correlation. Furthermore, the study establishes a user preference for MRHS over CRHS during peak traffic times. These insights highlight the importance of creating specific policies for different types of RHS, which is vital for the development of successful urban transportation strategies.

本研究解决了人们对通勤出行行为多样性缺乏了解的问题,尤其是不同类型的叫车服务(RHS)所产生的影响。研究重点是摩托车搭乘服务(MRHS)和汽车搭乘服务(CRHS)对用户行为的不同影响。通过对2023年3月收集到的500名RHS用户数据进行多项式Logit和双变量Probit回归分析,研究揭示了收入和个人车辆拥有量的增加对MRHS和CRHS使用的不同影响。值得注意的是,MRHS 的使用与将 RHS 作为前往地铁站的接驳方式呈正相关,而 CRHS 的使用则呈负相关。此外,研究还发现,在交通高峰期,用户更愿意选择 MRHS 而不是 CRHS。这些见解凸显了针对不同类型的轨道交通系统制定具体政策的重要性,这对于制定成功的城市交通战略至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Calibration and validation of the rule-based human driver model for car-following behaviors at roundabout using naturalistic driving data 利用自然驾驶数据校准和验证基于规则的人类驾驶员环岛跟车行为模型
Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eastsj.2024.100129
Junhee Choi , Dong-Kyu Kim

Understanding driver behavior is crucial for introducing roundabouts. This study focuses on calibrating the parameters of the car-following model using naturalistic data and analyzing the appropriateness of different car-following models on the roundabout. We utilize rounD trajectory dataset. This dataset allows for the precise definition of lead and follow vehicles, enabling the calibration of model parameters accordingly. We compared the calibration results for roundabouts with those obtained for signalized intersections from CitySim. Our results show that the Krauss and intelligent driver models (IDM) achieve mean absolute percentage errors of 10.09% and 23.21%, respectively. Furthermore, IDM exhibited higher errors in the circulation segment of the roundabout, while in the exit segment, the Krauss model showed elevated errors. It contrasted with the homogenous results obtained in the signalized intersection. These findings provide valuable insights into driver's behavior on roundabouts.

了解驾驶员的行为对于引入环岛至关重要。本研究的重点是利用自然数据校准汽车跟随模型的参数,并分析不同汽车跟随模型在环岛上的适用性。我们利用了 rounD 轨迹数据集。该数据集可精确定义领跑车辆和跟车车辆,从而校准相应的模型参数。我们将环岛的校准结果与 CitySim 中信号灯路口的校准结果进行了比较。结果显示,克劳斯模型和智能驾驶员模型(IDM)的平均绝对百分比误差分别为 10.09% 和 23.21%。此外,IDM 在环岛的循环段表现出更高的误差,而在出口段,Krauss 模型则表现出更高的误差。这与在信号灯路口获得的同质结果形成了鲜明对比。这些发现为了解驾驶员在环岛上的行为提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
A binomial distribution model for describing pedestrian-vehicle crashes in urban areas 用于描述城市地区行人与车辆碰撞事故的二项分布模型
Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eastsj.2024.100131
Yu-Ting HUANG, Tzu-Chang LEE

This study aims to investigate the relationship between the numbers of pedestrian-vehicle crashes (PVCs) and the traffic and built environments from a macroscopic perspective. A binomial distribution model has been developed to represent the occurrence of PVCs. To calibrate the model, Bayesian analysis using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method has been employed. The results identify thirteen variables representing urban activities and traffic conditions, including land uses, degrees of mixed use, points of interest, various passage widths, and street hierarchy that significantly impact PVCs. Additionally, the study unveils the spatial distribution of PVC probabilities and exposures. This research contributes to the field by developing an analytical framework for comprehending PVCs from a macroscopic viewpoint, introducing innovative methods for uncovering latent variables, integrating diverse types of data into the analysis, and creating a model for simulating the effects of urban planning revisions and traffic management strategies.

本研究旨在从宏观角度研究行人与车辆碰撞事故(PVC)数量与交通和建筑环境之间的关系。我们建立了一个二项分布模型来表示 PVC 的发生率。为了校准模型,采用了马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗方法进行贝叶斯分析。研究结果确定了 13 个代表城市活动和交通状况的变量,包括对 PVC 有显著影响的土地用途、混合使用程度、兴趣点、各种通道宽度和街道等级。此外,研究还揭示了聚氯乙烯概率和暴露的空间分布。这项研究通过建立一个从宏观角度理解聚氯乙烯的分析框架,引入创新方法来发现潜在变量,将不同类型的数据整合到分析中,以及创建一个模型来模拟城市规划修改和交通管理策略的影响,为该领域做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Emergency shelter location–allocation analysis with time–varying demand 具有时变需求的紧急避难所位置分配分析
Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eastsj.2024.100152
Eiei Tun, Toshimitsu Nishikiori, Varun Varghese, Makoto Chikaraishi, Miho Seike, Akimasa Fujiwara
The reduction in the overall evacuation time by increasing the number of shelters is desirable. However, policymakers often face resource constraints that limit their ability to open additional shelters. Using the emergency shelter location-allocation model, this study empirically identifies which shelters should be opened given the demand for evacuation varies based on time of day (time-varying demand for each hour) in Higashihiroshima city, Japan. To achieve this, a framework was developed to estimate the time-varying evacuation demand using secondary data sources, followed by an analysis using a location-allocation optimization model. The results show that the dynamic change in evacuation demand over time significantly affects the number and location of shelters to be opened. These findings highlight the importance of time-dependent estimation in disaster response management.
通过增加避难所数量来缩短总体疏散时间是可取的。然而,政策制定者往往面临资源约束,限制了他们开设更多避难所的能力。本研究利用紧急避难所位置分配模型,根据日本东广岛市一天中不同时间段的避难需求(每小时的需求随时间变化),实证确定应开设哪些避难所。为此,我们开发了一个框架,利用二手数据源估算随时间变化的避难需求,然后利用位置分配优化模型进行分析。结果表明,疏散需求随时间的动态变化极大地影响了避难所的数量和开设地点。这些发现凸显了随时间变化的估算在救灾管理中的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating air route performance with context-dependent data envelopment analysis: A case study in Taiwan 利用数据包络分析法评估航线绩效:台湾案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eastsj.2024.100148
Wen-Chun Tseng , Xin Wang , Yu-Cheng Ting

The aviation industry has a key role in international trade activities. Most studies measure aviation performance based on airlines or airports. However, the frontline operation is delivered via air routes and more operating characteristics can be revealed with route-based performance evaluation. Further, the traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach cannot rank performance in a particular context which represents an efficiency frontier built by decision making units (DMUs). Therefore, this study uses a context-dependent DEA approach to measure and rank the performance of air routes with a case study of 112 international routes from two airlines in Taiwan. Model results identify eight performance levels with most air routes at efficiency performance level 2 and level 3 and most route destinations in East Asia (e.g., Japan). The results of this study can inform operators about a clear relationship between performance and potential markets as well as improvement strategies.

航空业在国际贸易活动中发挥着关键作用。大多数研究以航空公司或机场为基础衡量航空绩效。然而,一线运营是通过航线进行的,基于航线的绩效评估可以揭示更多的运营特征。此外,传统的数据包络分析(DEA)方法无法对特定环境下的绩效进行排序,而特定环境代表了由决策单元(DMU)构建的效率前沿。因此,本研究以台湾两家航空公司的 112 条国际航线为案例,采用与情境相关的 DEA 方法对航线绩效进行衡量和排序。模型结果确定了八个绩效等级,大多数航线的效率绩效等级为 2 级和 3 级,大多数航线的目的地在东亚(如日本)。这项研究的结果可为运营商提供信息,使其了解绩效与潜在市场之间的明确关系以及改进策略。
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引用次数: 0
Proof of concept on district mobility service using small electric vehicles toward realizing a decarbonized city 使用小型电动汽车的地区交通服务概念验证,以实现低碳化城市
Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eastsj.2024.100142
Tsuyoshi Takano , Hiroyoshi Morita , Masato Miyata , Chun-Chen Chou , Kento Yoh , Kenji Doi , Theeramunkong Thanaruk

Renewing feeder transit services is crucial for maximizing the potential of the public transport system and advancing toward a decarbonized Bangkok. Herein, we propose a smart feeder transit service using small electric vehicles for limited areas (sois) and target facilities in central Bangkok. A 1-year proof of concept was conducted to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of this service and assess its potential for deployment as a new mobility service. We found that 1) the introduction of a small mobility service in sois can considerably reduce both road congestion levels and CO2 emissions owing to the improved capacity utilization rate, downsizing, and the use of electric vehicles, 2) advantages of scaling could be garnered by expanding the number of facilities to be serviced, and 3) providing a mobility service that is cooperatively operated by neighboring facilities is more convenient and profitable than providing a shuttle service for each facility.

更新接驳公交服务对于最大限度地发挥公共交通系统的潜力和推进曼谷的去碳化进程至关重要。在此,我们提议在曼谷市中心的有限区域(sois)和目标设施使用小型电动汽车提供智能接驳交通服务。我们进行了为期 1 年的概念验证,以验证该服务的可行性和有效性,并评估其作为一种新型交通服务的部署潜力。我们发现:1)由于提高了运力利用率、缩小了规模并使用了电动汽车,在 sois 中引入小型交通服务可显著降低道路拥堵水平和二氧化碳排放量;2)通过扩大服务设施的数量可获得规模优势;3)与为每个设施提供班车服务相比,由邻近设施合作运营的交通服务更方便、更有利可图。
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引用次数: 0
A quasi-dynamic location equilibrium model for urban policymaking as autonomous cars increase mobility 自动驾驶汽车提高流动性时城市决策的准动态位置均衡模型
Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eastsj.2024.100144
Tetsuji Sato , Kazuma Okada

The growing utilization of autonomous cars may affect people's residential location choice behavior and change the population distribution in a city, contrary to compact city policy. This paper proposes a model to estimate the time-series impacts of autonomous cars on population distribution in a city. The model basically consists of the primary factors cohort method and a housing land location equilibrium model. The location equilibrium model considers the residential location choice behavior of individuals, while prior models have been based on the behavior of households. We applied the model to Niigata City, Japan and analyzed the impact of permission to utilize autonomous cars (an increase in car availability to non-drivers) in the whole area of the city and only in the suburbs. Results indicated that permission to utilize autonomous cars only in the suburbs may lead to urban sprawl.

自动驾驶汽车的日益普及可能会影响人们的居住地选择行为,并改变城市的人口分布,这与紧凑型城市政策背道而驰。本文提出了一个模型来估计自动驾驶汽车对城市人口分布的时序影响。该模型基本由主要因素队列法和住房用地区位均衡模型组成。位置均衡模型考虑的是个人的住宅位置选择行为,而之前的模型都是基于家庭的行为。我们将该模型应用于日本新泻市,分析了允许使用自动驾驶汽车(增加非驾驶者的汽车可用性)对整个城市地区和仅对郊区的影响。结果表明,只允许在郊区使用自动驾驶汽车可能会导致城市无序扩张。
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引用次数: 0
Operational performance evaluation of a container terminal using data mining and simulation 利用数据挖掘和模拟对集装箱码头的运营绩效进行评估
Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eastsj.2024.100127
Tiago Novaes Mathias , Hideyo Inutsuka , Takeshi Shinoda , Yoshihisa Sugimura

The efficient operation of container terminals facilitates the seamless flow of goods across borders. New technologies such as big data, data mining, and simulation models, have emerged in the maritime industry, enabling optimization and performance evaluation. This study investigated how data science using operational data can improve container terminal operations, drive efficiency, enhance throughput, and bolster competitiveness in the shipping sector. Decision-making within container terminals, particularly in determining optimal container stacking locations, poses a significant challenge owing to the multitude of factors at play. By analyzing the datasets, new strategies and policies can be simulated to minimize container rehandling operations. This study focuses on the Hakata International Container Terminal in Japan, where daily operational data from rubber-tired gantry equipment are used to investigate container movements. A significant reduction in the total number of movements required to perform container-handling operations was demonstrated by implementing data-driven strategies and simulation modeling.

集装箱码头的高效运作有助于货物跨境无缝流动。海运业出现了大数据、数据挖掘和模拟模型等新技术,使优化和性能评估成为可能。本研究探讨了数据科学如何利用运营数据改善集装箱码头运营、提高效率、增加吞吐量并增强航运业的竞争力。集装箱码头内的决策制定,尤其是确定最佳集装箱堆放位置的决策制定,因涉及众多因素而面临巨大挑战。通过分析数据集,可以模拟出新的策略和政策,从而最大限度地减少集装箱重新装卸作业。本研究以日本博多国际集装箱码头为研究对象,利用橡胶龙门设备的每日运行数据来调查集装箱的移动情况。通过实施数据驱动策略和模拟建模,证明集装箱装卸作业所需的总移动次数大幅减少。
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引用次数: 0
Economic impact analysis of developing the JR Haneda Airport Access Line 开发 JR 羽田机场交通线的经济影响分析
Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eastsj.2024.100128
Tetsuji Sato , Yuta Ito , Yuta Tsuzuki

The East Japan Railway Company is planning a new access railway line to the Tokyo International (Haneda) Airport. This paper proposes an evaluation method for the development of the new airport access line considering the socioeconomic characteristics of the Greater Tokyo Area and indicates what is needed to increase its social value. As the evaluation method, we develop an econometric model that considers commuters’ trip behaviors across prefectures and the relationship between the increased number of Meeting, Incentive Travel, Convention, Exhibition and Event (MICE) visitors and the regional economy. We also conduct a simulation analysis using an empirical econometric model and a cost-effectiveness analysis based on multiple scenarios. The results indicate that a 50% increase in MICE visitors is needed to make the present discounted value of the total increase in the gross regional product larger than the construction cost of the line.

东日本旅客铁道公司正在规划一条通往东京国际(羽田)机场的新铁路线。本文结合大东京地区的社会经济特点,提出了新机场通道线路开发的评估方法,并指出了提高其社会价值所需的条件。作为评估方法,我们建立了一个计量经济学模型,该模型考虑了乘客在各都道府县的出行行为,以及会议、奖励旅游、大会、展览和活动(MICE)游客数量的增加与地区经济之间的关系。我们还使用实证计量经济学模型进行了模拟分析,并根据多种方案进行了成本效益分析。结果表明,会展游客需要增加 50%,才能使地区生产总值总增长的现贴现值大于该线路的建设成本。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Asian Transport Studies
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