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The onset of the British Imperial retreat from China: Evidence from the Chinese sovereign bond market in London 大英帝国从中国撤退的开始:来自伦敦中国主权债券市场的证据
0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI: 10.1111/aehr.70005
Dan Li, Hao Tang, Yajie Wang

This study explores the British Empire's retreat from China through the lens of London investors in Chinese sovereign bonds (1898–1938). Using structural break analysis on weekly spreads between Chinese bonds—secured by British-controlled customs and salt revenues—and British Consols, it identifies key shifts. Spreads surged over 70% during the Northern Expedition (1926–1928), coinciding with Britain's shift from ‘gunboat diplomacy’ to concessions, signalling investor perceptions of declining imperial oversight. A subsequent break at the Expedition's conclusion saw spreads narrow by 24% to 54%, not due to a resurgence of British influence, but to the Nationalist Government's split from the Communist Party and Bolsheviks and its pledge to honour existing debts. However, in the post-Expedition era, perceived risk in Chinese bonds rose, reflected in a sharp increase in bond return volatility and a heightened co-movement between London and domestic bond returns. Realising their government could no longer guarantee the credibility of Chinese bonds, London investors adjusted their strategy, closely tracking developments in China.

本研究通过投资中国主权债券的伦敦投资者(1898-1938)的视角,探讨了大英帝国退出中国的过程。通过对中国债券(由英国控制的海关和盐收入担保)与英国国债之间的周差进行结构性断裂分析,它发现了关键的变化。在北伐(1926-1928)期间,息差飙升超过70%,恰逢英国从“炮舰外交”转向让步,这表明投资者认为帝国的监管正在减弱。远征结束后,差距缩小了24%到54%,这不是由于英国的影响重新出现,而是由于国民政府与共产党和布尔什维克的分裂以及它承诺偿还现有债务。然而,在后探险队时代,中国债券的感知风险上升,反映在债券回报波动性急剧上升,以及伦敦和国内债券回报之间的联动加剧。在意识到英国政府无法再保证中国债券的可信度后,伦敦投资者调整了策略,密切关注中国的事态发展。
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引用次数: 0
A reverse salient: Japan's economic sanctions on enemy business, 1914–1927 反向突出部:日本对敌国企业的经济制裁,1914-1927 年
0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1111/aehr.12309
Chenxiao Li

This study explores the formation and implementation of Japan's economic sanctions on enemy business, especially German merchants, during the First World War, by positioning Japan within the context of the Allies' collective effort to enforce a global blockade. Although Japan enforced harsh measures in Qingdao, the economic sanctions on the home front were lenient compared with those of the European Allies and the United States. For this, Japan received diplomatic pressure from Britain. The Allies' pressure eventually led to Japan's policy switch before the end of the war. With respect to sanctions, Japan was a reverse salient among the Allies.

本研究通过将日本置于盟国集体努力实施全球封锁的背景下,探讨了日本在第一次世界大战期间对敌方企业(特别是德国商人)的经济制裁的形成和实施。虽然日本在青岛实施了严厉的经济制裁,但与欧洲盟国和美国相比,日本在国内的经济制裁是宽松的。为此,日本受到了来自英国的外交压力。盟军的压力最终导致日本在战争结束前改变了政策。在制裁方面,日本在盟国中是相反的突出。
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引用次数: 0
Toward the great divergence: Economic growth in the Yangzi Delta, 1393–1953 走向大分化:1393-1953年长江三角洲经济增长
0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1111/aehr.70003
Runzhuo Zhai
<p><i>The dissertation was completed in 2023 at the University of Oxford, under the supervision of Professor Stephen Broadberry. This work was partly funded by Designated Studentship Scholarship of the University of Oxford and PhD Bursary Scheme of Economic History Society</i>.</p><p><i>The full dissertation can be accessed through the Library of the University of Oxford</i>.</p><p>This dissertation examines the economic growth process of the Yangzi Delta, one of China's most developed sub-regions, from 1393 to 1953. For the first time in the literature, an annual-frequency GDP series is constructed using an output-based approach. The new GDP data shed light on how the Yangzi Delta's economy evolved over seven centuries.</p><p>From the perspective of Chinese economic history, the nine Taihu Lake-centred prefectures studied in this dissertation had a GDP per capita well above the national average for a long time (~170%). However, before the mid-19th century, the local economy appeared to be trapped in what Mark Elvin (<span>1973</span>) refers to as the ‘high-level equilibrium trap.’ While the GDP per capita exhibited a Malthusian-style growth pattern, numerous technological and managerial innovations allowed it to remain at a high level.</p><p>In the context of global economic history, this dissertation incorporates the Yangzi Delta's directly calculated GDP into global GDP comparisons for the first time. Since the late 14th century, the Yangzi Delta maintained a GDP per capita level comparable to that of the most developed European economies, including those of Italy, the Netherlands, and Britain. However, by the late 17th century, this neck-and-neck growth pattern came to an end. From that point onward, the leading European economies surpassed the Yangzi Delta in terms of GDP per capita, and the gap widened irreversibly. In short, the Great Divergence is believed to have begun at the end of the 17th century.</p><p>This dissertation is divided into two sections: <i>Measuring Economic Growth</i> (Chapters 2–4) and <i>Analysing Economic Growth</i> (Chapters 5 and 6). To measure economic growth in the Yangzi Delta, I first examine the region's population and cultivated land in Chapter 2. Although many macro-level population and land-use figures exist in Chinese historical records, as Ho (<span>1959</span>) pointed out, these figures cannot be used directly. The primary focus of Chapter 2 is to reconstruct data on population and cultivated land while considering institutional factors. From an institutional perspective, I delve into the traditions and practices of China's statistical system, explaining when the available data can be considered reliable and when it cannot. By carefully assessing the boundaries of the historical data, I am ultimately able to construct a complete set of benchmark data on population and cultivated land in the Yangzi Delta. In the long run, decreasing cultivated land per capita was the dominant characteristic of the regio
当人均农业产值下降而非农业产值保持不变时,经济结构不可避免地发生了变化,导致了似乎是原工业化的进程。然而,这种转变并不足以阻止人均国内生产总值的进一步下降,因为从长期来看,非农业增长并没有明显超过人口增长。接下来,根据定性证据得出的非农业部门增长的总体趋势,我采用基于产出的方法对工业和服务业部门的产出进行了详细估算。利用新构建的 GDP 数据集,我探讨了几个关键的宏观经济问题:(1)长江三角洲是中国最发达的地区吗?(2)长江三角洲经济增长过程中的长期趋势和转折点是什么?(3)长江三角洲是否经历了马尔萨斯陷阱?(4) 博瑟鲁普增长模型或斯密增长模型是否有助于解释该地区的经济增长模式?根据直接估算的长江三角洲 GDP 数据,我得出结论:与最发达的欧洲经济体相比,大分化发生在 17 世纪末。我还进行了稳健性测试以验证大分化的时间,并探讨了几种反事实情景,考虑如果没有发生大分化可能会发生什么。除了大分流的争论之外,我还将长江三角洲的经济与欧洲大部分地区的经济进行了比较,并认为长江三角洲面临的最大经济挑战不仅仅是分流本身,而是该地区未能利用 19 世纪席卷欧亚大陆的更广泛的经济增长浪潮。事实上,除了英国之外,世界上大多数经济体的人均 GDP 首次长期持续增长几乎都始于 19 世纪。换句话说,尽管 17 世纪的大分化使扬子江地区失去了全球经济领头羊的地位,但只要它能在 19 世纪与其他经济体(如日本)一起腾飞,就不算太晚。然而,扬子地区的人均 GDP 在 19 世纪没有任何起色,最终被全球经济增长的浪潮甩在了后面。这一失败直接导致长江三角洲在 20 世纪初甚至远远落后于最贫穷的欧洲经济体。
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引用次数: 0
Land revenue, inequality and development in colonial India (1880–1910) 殖民地印度的土地收入、不平等与发展(1880-1910)
0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1111/aehr.70002
Jordi Caum-Julio

This dissertation was completed and conferred in 2023 at the University of Barcelona under the supervision of Alfonso Herranz-Loncán (University of Barcelona) and Gabriele Cappelli (University of Siena). It was financially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities under an FPU scholarship. See the dissertation for full references and acknowledgements.

The dissertation can be accessed at https://hdl.handle.net/2445/206123.

Different institutional settings lead to different developmental outcomes (Acemoglu et al., 2005). However, the effect of institutions on the distribution of the benefits of development remains relatively unexplored—particularly for colonial times. Similarly, research on the impact of institutions on the provision of public goods promoting human capital—other than education—has also remained understudied. With these broad research gaps in mind, in this dissertation I explore the impact of land revenue systems on the distribution of agricultural income and on the funding of hospitals and dispensaries in colonial India.

Land revenue systems was an institution introduced by the British granting landownership—together with land tax liability—to different types of individuals. During their initial expansion, the British introduced a landlord system—where landownership was granted to an intermediary. As more regions came under British control, non-landlord systems were also introduced. In these systems, landownership was granted directly to the cultivator. Interestingly, Banerjee and Iyer (2005) find that these systems influenced post-colonial development, although their impact during the colonial period remains mostly unknown. Importantly, this dissertation presents the first comparative estimates of agricultural income inequality below the national level for colonial India. I also provide one of the first datasets with data for colonial India below the district-level. In particular, I construct a new georeferenced dataset with revenue and expenditure data for over 1600 hospitals and dispensaries.

After a brief introduction, I explore the link between land revenue systems and the evolution of agricultural income inequality from 1880 to 1910. To do so, I use provincial wage/land price (W/LP) ratios to estimate agricultural income inequality. When correlating these new estimates with the presence of different land revenue systems, I find that in provinces with more landlord systems, agricultural income inequality increased less and, in some cases even decreased. I argue that this was due to the introduction of Tenancy Acts. These acts were mostly introduced in landlord provinces and limited rent rises as well as tenant eviction, reducing the landlords' capacity to increase their share of agricultural surplus over time. The correlation between some economic factors—like factor endowments—and the W/LP ratios does

在阿方索-赫兰斯-隆坎(巴塞罗那大学)和加布里埃尔-卡佩利(锡耶纳大学)的指导下,本论文于 2023 年在巴塞罗那大学完成并授予学位。该论文得到了西班牙科学、创新和大学部(Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities)FPU奖学金的资助。论文的全部参考文献和致谢见论文。论文可在以下网址查阅:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/206123.Different 机构设置导致不同的发展结果(Acemoglu et al.)然而,有关制度对发展利益分配的影响的研究相对较少,尤其是对殖民时代的研究。同样,关于制度对提供促进人力资本的公共产品(教育除外)的影响的研究也仍然不足。考虑到这些广泛的研究空白,我在这篇论文中探讨了土地收入制度对印度殖民地时期农业收入分配以及医院和药房资金来源的影响。在最初的扩张过程中,英国人引入了地主制度--将土地所有权授予中间人。随着越来越多的地区被英国控制,非地主制度也被引入。在这些制度中,土地所有权直接授予耕种者。有趣的是,Banerjee 和 Iyer(2005 年)发现,这些制度影响了后殖民时期的发展,尽管它们在殖民时期的影响仍然鲜为人知。重要的是,本论文首次对殖民时期印度全国范围内的农业收入不平等进行了比较估算。我还提供了第一批印度殖民地地区级以下的数据集。特别是,我构建了一个新的地理参照数据集,其中包含 1600 多家医院和药房的收入和支出数据。在简要介绍之后,我探讨了土地收入制度与 1880 年至 1910 年农业收入不平等演变之间的联系。为此,我使用省级工资/土地价格(W/LP)比率来估算农业收入不平等。将这些新的估算值与是否存在不同的土地收入制度相关联时,我发现在地主制度较多的省份,农业收入不平等的加剧程度较低,在某些情况下甚至有所下降。我认为这是由于《租赁法》的出台。这些法案大多是在地主省份出台的,它们限制了租金的上涨和佃户的驱逐,从而降低了地主随着时间推移增加其农业盈余份额的能力。一些经济因素(如要素禀赋)与 W/LP 比率之间的相关性在国家和省级层面并不总是成立的。在第 3 章中,我使用县级工资/收入比率来估算农业收入不平等,并使用工具变量来探讨土地收入制度对各县农业收入不平等水平的因果影响。我发现,尽管之前观察到 1880 年至 1910 年期间地主省份的收入分配趋于平均化,但到 1916 年,非地主地区的收入分配更加平均化。我认为,土地集中、议价能力差异以及对地主和耕种者的法律保护可以解释土地收入制度对农业收入不平等程度的影响。最后,我分析了土地收入制度对医院和药房可用资源的潜在影响。通过使用工具变量,我探讨了土地收益制度对医院和药房的总收入和不同收入来源的因果影响,包括这些医疗机构从地方政府和私人那里获得的资金。我发现,与地主区的医疗机构相比,非地主区的医院和药房获得了更多的资金,尤其是来自地方政府的资金。然而,在后者,这些机构从私人订阅和印度人捐赠中获得的资金更多。我认为,这些影响是由地方精英影响土地收入的能力以及他们利用捐款和捐赠向英国人表示效忠的能力所驱动的,尤其是在地主区。这篇论文的启示是,制度对于解释医疗机构可用资源的差异以及发展利益的分配方式非常重要。这一信息不仅适用于制度文献,也适用于政治经济学和分配文献。 对于以往的政治经济学研究,本论文展示了地方代理人影响财政能力和使用私人捐款的能力如何能够调节殖民地制度对公共产品供应的影响。对于以往的分配文献,本论文首次提出了殖民时期印度农业收入不平等的分类估算,并指出了制度对收入分配的影响,同时强调了在国家层面以下进行地区比较分析的相关性。
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引用次数: 0
From politics to economics: The investigation of the determinants of local administrative hierarchy in the Tang–Song transition 从政治到经济:唐宋过渡时期地方行政等级决定因素考察
0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-02-16 DOI: 10.1111/aehr.12307
Nan Li, Heqi Cai

This study collects original data to examine the determinants of classification criteria of county hierarchy and its rank variations during the Tang–Song period. The results reveal that the county hierarchy was affected by both economic and political situations, with more emphasis on politics in Tang and economics in Song. By comparing the county ranks through two dynasties, we find that political factors influenced rank elevation mainly near the capital while economic factors emerged as the primary driver of rank increases in southern regions, reflecting the economic center southward shift during the Tang–Song Transition.

本研究收集原始资料,探讨唐宋时期县域等级划分标准及其等级变动的决定因素。结果表明,县域等级制度受经济和政治两方面因素的影响,唐代以政治为主,宋代以经济为主。通过对两个朝代县级制的比较,我们发现政治因素主要影响都城附近县级制的提升,而经济因素则成为南方地区县级制提升的主要驱动力,反映了唐宋时期经济中心的南移。
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引用次数: 0
Report of the editor of the Asia-Pacific Economic History Review for 2024 2024 年《亚太经济史评论》编辑报告
0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-02-16 DOI: 10.1111/aehr.70004
Kris Inwood
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引用次数: 0
Rise of the south: How Arab-led maritime trade transformed China, 671–1371 CE 南方的崛起阿拉伯人主导的海上贸易如何改变中国(公元 671-1371 年
0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-02-10 DOI: 10.1111/aehr.70000
Zhiwu Chen, Zhan Lin, Kaixiang Peng

China's center of socioeconomic activities was in the North prior to the Tang dynasty but is in the South today. We demonstrate that Arab and Persian Muslim traders triggered that transition when they came to China in the late seventh century, by lifting maritime trade along the South Coast and re-creating the South. Between 742 and 1393 CE, prefectures with better access to maritime trade, or higher porcelain trade participation, experienced significantly higher population growth, but the predictive coefficient weakened substantially after the maritime trade ban of 1371 CE. These findings are robust after controlling for many confounding factors.

唐朝之前,中国的社会经济活动中心在北方,而今天则在南方。我们证明,阿拉伯和波斯穆斯林商人在七世纪晚期来到中国时,通过提升南海岸的海上贸易和重建南方,引发了这种转变。在公元742年至1393年间,拥有更好的海上贸易渠道或更高的瓷器贸易参与度的郡县,人口增长明显更高,但在公元1371年海上贸易禁令之后,预测系数大幅减弱。在控制了许多混杂因素后,这些发现是稳健的。
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引用次数: 0
Between government and market: Building blocks of a new economic history of China's industrial development during the Ming dynasty (ca. 1368–1644) 政府与市场之间:明朝(约1368-1644)中国工业发展新经济史的组成部分
0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-02-09 DOI: 10.1111/aehr.70001
Zipeng Zhang
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引用次数: 0
Information capacity in the mirror of foreign trade data? A case study of Chinese Maritime Customs, 1864–1938 外贸数据镜像中的信息容量?中国海关个案研究,1864-1938
0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1111/aehr.12308
Songlin Wang

This paper introduces a new approach to explore the information capacity of the Chinese Maritime Customs from 1864 to 1938. It employs a mirror analysis by comparing Chinese Maritime Customs' international trade data with that of China's major trading partners: the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Findings reveal that Chinese Maritime Customs' improvements in measuring foreign trade frequently coincided with its institutional reforms. The results highlight that these improvements were not uniform across different regions. Specifically, the persistent discrepancies between Chinese Maritime Customs’ and Japanese data underscore the influence of geopolitics since late 19th century.

本文采用一种新方法来探讨 1864 年至 1938 年中国海关的信息能力。它采用镜像分析法,将中国海关的国际贸易数据与中国的主要贸易伙伴(美国、英国和日本)的国际贸易数据进行比较。研究结果表明,中国海关在衡量对外贸易方面的改进往往与其体制改革相吻合。结果突出表明,这些改进在不同地区并不一致。具体而言,中国海关与日本数据之间持续存在的差异凸显了 19 世纪末以来地缘政治的影响。
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引用次数: 0
‘He made it his rule never to grant licenses to married women’: Gender, licensing and the law in nineteenth-century New South Wales, Victoria and New Zealand 他规定绝不向已婚妇女颁发许可证":十九世纪新南威尔士、维多利亚和新西兰的性别、许可和法律
0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1111/aehr.12299
Catherine Bishop, Nichole Hoskin

This article considers hotel licensing and gender across New Zealand, New South Wales and Victoria in the long nineteenth century, creating timelines of legislative changes and exploring the impact of business regulation and its implementation on women. It exposes a disconnect between law and licensing court practices, indicative of the ways entrenched understandings of gendered behaviours and local conditions affected women in business. It demonstrates that women's rights as publicans went backwards in New Zealand and New South Wales, just as other rights were expanding. It explores Victorian exceptionalism, Victoria legalising female licensees when others did not.

本文探讨了 19 世纪长期以来新西兰、新南威尔士州和维多利亚州的酒店许可与性别问题,创建了立法变迁的时间轴,并探讨了商业法规及其实施对妇女的影响。它揭示了法律与许可法庭实践之间的脱节,表明了对性别行为的根深蒂固的理解和当地条件对商业妇女的影响。它表明,在新西兰和新南威尔士,妇女作为公职人员的权利出现倒退,而其他权利却在不断扩大。该书探讨了维多利亚时期的例外情况,即维多利亚州将女性持牌人合法化,而其他州却没有这样做。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Asia‐Pacific Economic History Review
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