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Blind Predictions and Uncertainty in the Simulation of Reinforced Concrete Structures 钢筋混凝土结构模拟中的盲目预测和不确定性
Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3354
Jan Cervenka, Vladimir Cervenka, Jiri Rymes, Jiri Kovar

Nonlinear analysis of reinforced concrete structures is becoming a standard tool for both the assessment of existing structures and the design of new ones. This trend is supported by new safety formats for nonlinear analysis introduced in the fib Model Code 2010 and incorporated in the new Eurocode (prEN 1992-1-1:2022). A key challenge is the evaluation and management of uncertainties. This paper focuses on the model uncertainty in ultimate and serviceability limit states, including crack width estimation. The significant insights into modeling uncertainty are provided by the recent blind prediction competitions, which offer a practical benchmark for assessing the robustness and reliability of nonlinear models and software tools. This paper highlights the findings from several such competitions. A key limitation is that the material uncertainties are typically neglected, meaning that the most accurate predictions often result from a chance rather than from the consistently reliable modeling.

钢筋混凝土结构的非线性分析已成为既有结构评估和新结构设计的标准工具。这一趋势得到了2010年fib模型代码中引入的非线性分析的新安全格式的支持,并纳入了新的欧洲代码(prEN 1992-1-1:2022)。一个关键的挑战是对不确定性的评估和管理。重点研究了模型在极限状态和使用极限状态下的不确定性,包括裂缝宽度估计。最近的盲预测竞赛提供了对建模不确定性的重要见解,它为评估非线性模型和软件工具的鲁棒性和可靠性提供了一个实用的基准。本文重点介绍了几个此类竞赛的结果。一个关键的限制是物质的不确定性通常被忽略,这意味着最准确的预测往往是偶然的,而不是始终可靠的建模。
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引用次数: 0
Statistical procedures to quantify the influence of quality control in component properties: A methodology for structural safety assessments 量化构件特性质量控制影响的统计程序:结构安全评估的方法
Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3330
Tânia Feiri, Til Lux, Jan Schulze-Ardey, Josef Hegger, Martin Claßen, Marcus Ricker

In structural safety assessments, the selection of suitable parameters for stochastic models of component properties — such as concrete compressive strength or geometric dimensions — is a prime requirement. During their production, several quality control strategies are adopted to verify the specified value of diverse properties of structural members. Bayesian statistics form a suitable basis for updating the statistical distribution parameters when input from quality control is available. Previous work in the field of concrete compressive strength has demonstrated that such strategies introduce a filtering effect on the stochastic description of concrete strength distribution, which may have a positive influence on the resulting safety level. However, a generic approach applicable to a wider scope of properties remains to be established. This paper offers a methodology to update the distributional parameters based on input from quality control and further integration in safety assessments. By considering the filtering effect of quality control on the distributions of material properties, the proposed methodology aims to assist practitioners to unlock existing safety margins in structural design and, thus, propose more material and resource efficient solutions.

在结构安全评估中,为构件特性的随机模型(如混凝土抗压强度或几何尺寸)选择合适的参数是一项首要要求。在其生产过程中,采用了多种质量控制策略来验证结构构件各种性能的规定值。当来自质量控制的输入可用时,贝叶斯统计形成更新统计分布参数的合适基础。先前在混凝土抗压强度领域的工作表明,这些策略对混凝土强度分布的随机描述引入了过滤效应,这可能对得出的安全水平产生积极影响。然而,一种适用于更广泛属性范围的通用方法仍有待建立。本文提供了一种基于质量控制输入和进一步集成到安全评估中的方法来更新分布参数。通过考虑质量控制对材料性能分布的过滤效应,所提出的方法旨在帮助从业者解锁结构设计中现有的安全边际,从而提出更有效的材料和资源解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing Risk Communication: Interactive and Web-Hosted Tools for Visualising Quantitative Risk and Reliability 加强风险沟通:可视化定量风险和可靠性的交互式和网络托管工具
Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3335
Paul-Remo Wagner, Matthias Schubert

Conveying risk and reliability metrics to non-experts is hard because probabilities and expected monetary losses often lie far outside everyday intuition. This paper looks at interactive web-hosted tools as a means to alleviate this problem by comparing three existing tools to distil design guidance: a digital handbook for reliability predictions in space applications, a cloud inspection-planning app for deteriorating structures, and a municipal fire-risk platform. Each tool is evaluated against six recurrent themes: visualisation, interactivity, accessibility, maintainability, gamification, personalisation. Findings show that rich graphics plus direct parameter control are the entry ticket for engagement, while responsive web delivery and automated versioning keep analyses current and traceable. Light gamified cues (progress bars) and context-aware content (local response times) further motivate users but must be applied sparingly to preserve credibility and privacy. We outline an evolutionary path from searchable digital handbooks through parameter-driven calculators to map-centred dashboards and demonstrate that well-crafted interactivity transforms static risk reports into exploratory tools that enable genuinely risk-informed decisions across diverse engineering domains.

向非专家传达风险和可靠性指标是很困难的,因为概率和预期的货币损失往往远远超出日常直觉。本文着眼于交互式网络托管工具,通过比较现有的三种工具来提取设计指南,以缓解这一问题:空间应用可靠性预测的数字手册,老化结构的云检查规划应用程序,以及市政火灾风险平台。每个工具都会根据六个反复出现的主题进行评估:可视化、交互性、可访问性、可维护性、游戏化、个性化。调查结果显示,丰富的图形和直接的参数控制是提高用户粘性的关键,而响应式web交付和自动版本控制则可以保持分析的时效性和可追溯性。轻游戏化提示(进度条)和上下文感知内容(本地响应时间)进一步激励用户,但必须谨慎使用,以保护可信度和隐私。我们概述了从可搜索的数字手册到参数驱动计算器再到以地图为中心的仪表板的进化路径,并展示了精心设计的交互性将静态风险报告转化为探索性工具,从而在不同的工程领域实现真正的风险知情决策。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of the distribution function on the statistical scatter adjustment of the number of cycles to failure of concrete under fatigue 分布函数对混凝土疲劳破坏循环次数统计散点调整的影响
Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3338
Sören Voß, Raúl Enrique Beltrán Gutiérrez, Steffen Marx

Experimentally determined number of cycles to failure of concrete specimens exhibit significant scatter due to various influencing factors. Previous studies have identified the scatter in compressive strength as a primary factor affecting the scatter of the number of cycles to failure. To address this issue, a statistical approach was applied to correct the stress levels to account for the influence of the compressive strength scatter. This correction significantly reduced the scatter in the number of cycles to failure, improving the reliability of fatigue assessments.

A database of fatigue tests from the literature was compiled, and the stress levels were corrected, resulting in a significant reduction in the scatter of the number of cycles to failure. A normal distribution was assumed for the logarithmic number of cycles to failure. In addition to the normal distribution, the log-normal distribution and the Weibull distribution were also found to be suitable. The choice of distribution function had only a minor influence on the corrected stress levels. This is shown by the comparison of confidence intervals. These findings contribute to a more precise fatigue assessment methodology, facilitating more sustainable and economical structural design.

试验确定的混凝土试件破坏循环次数由于各种因素的影响,呈现出明显的离散性。以往的研究已经确定了抗压强度中的散点是影响破坏循环次数散点的主要因素。为了解决这个问题,采用了一种统计方法来修正应力水平,以考虑抗压强度分散的影响。这种修正大大减少了失效循环次数的分散,提高了疲劳评估的可靠性。从文献中编制了疲劳试验数据库,并对应力水平进行了修正,从而大大减少了循环失效次数的分散。假设失效周期的对数为正态分布。除正态分布外,对数正态分布和威布尔分布也比较适合。分布函数的选择对修正应力水平的影响较小。这可以从置信区间的比较中看出。这些发现有助于更精确的疲劳评估方法,促进更可持续和经济的结构设计。
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引用次数: 0
Streamlining risk identification and mitigation in mechanized tunneling 简化机械化隧道掘进的风险识别和降低
Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3343
Tobias Zabernig, Hannah Salzgeber, Matthias Flora

Given the increasing demand for mechanized tunneling, effective risk awareness and management have become crucial. Tunnel Information Modeling (TIM) has the potential to offer significant advantages in enhancing efficiency during the planning phase. This study aims to leverage the TIM model in combination with pre identified risk scenarios to accelerate risk identification and streamline mitigation efforts. A risk/scenario matrix, along with a ground model containing geological and geotechnical data along a specified alignment, is used to outline potential failure scenarios. The proposed approach integrates a deterministic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of various risk mitigation strategies, including the implementation of immediate measures and the adoption of preventive measures for potential occurrence zones. The outcome of the study is presented in a dynamic dashboard of the various scenarios and their associated costs.

随着机械化掘进需求的增加,有效的风险意识和管理变得至关重要。隧道信息模型在提高规划阶段的效率方面具有显著的优势。本研究旨在利用TIM模型与预先确定的风险情景相结合,以加速风险识别并简化缓解工作。风险/场景矩阵,以及包含沿指定路线的地质和岩土技术数据的地面模型,用于概述潜在的失败场景。拟议的办法综合了一个确定性模型,以评估各种减轻风险战略的成本效益,包括执行立即措施和对潜在发生区采取预防措施。研究结果以动态仪表板的形式呈现,显示各种情景及其相关成本。
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引用次数: 0
Variability in the predicted maximum acceleration of non-structural components anchored to concrete buildings subjected to earthquake demands 在地震条件下,锚定在混凝土建筑物上的非结构构件预测最大加速度的变化
Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3349
Patricio Quintana Gallo, Panagiotis Spyridis, Stefano Pampanin

Non-structural components (NSC) are an important part of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings. Their damage constitutes a large portion of the losses encountered by these structures after moderate-severe earthquakes, as well as after more frequent ones. Most, if not all, of the current standards for the design of acceleration-sensitive NSC make use of floor acceleration response spectra, thereby neglecting the influence of the anchorage hysteresis behaviour on their response. Only a few studies have included such an effect on the numerical evaluation of the maximum acceleration reached by NSC anchored to RC buildings. These studies showed that, for single-anchor connections, if the shear hysteresis of the anchorage is included, the maximum acceleration of the NSC and the maximum force of the anchor itself can significantly exceed the design demands computed with design codes. Moreover, the latest study on this topic showed that a very large degree of variability is encountered in the results, depending on the earthquake record used, and of the type of anchor considered. This paper focuses on such a variability – threated as epistemic uncertainty - in the predicted numerical results, showing how, for achieving a given probability of exceedance threshold, the design values might be much larger than those anticipated by the codes or even than the average numerical results. It is shown that if the tolerance gap of the anchorage is reduced or filled in, such a variability/uncertainty decreases considerably.

非结构构件是钢筋混凝土建筑的重要组成部分。在中重度地震以及更频繁的地震之后,这些建筑物所遭受的损失中,它们的损害占了很大一部分。大多数(如果不是全部的话)当前设计加速度敏感型NSC的标准都使用了地板加速度响应谱,从而忽略了锚固滞后行为对其响应的影响。只有少数研究将这种影响包括在钢筋混凝土建筑物上锚定的NSC所达到的最大加速度的数值评估中。这些研究表明,对于单锚连接,如果考虑锚杆的剪切滞后,NSC的最大加速度和锚杆本身的最大力可以显著超过设计规范计算的设计要求。此外,关于这一主题的最新研究表明,根据所使用的地震记录和所考虑的锚的类型,结果存在很大程度的变异性。本文着重于预测数值结果中的这种可变性——受到认知不确定性的威胁,展示了如何为达到给定的超出阈值的概率,设计值可能比代码预期的值大得多,甚至比平均数值结果大得多。结果表明,如果减小或填充锚固容差,这种变异性/不确定性将大大降低。
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引用次数: 0
From clustering to classification: An uncertainty analysis of a classification approach using a Gaussian mixture model 从聚类到分类:使用高斯混合模型的分类方法的不确定性分析
Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3346
Nils Soeren Krause

This paper presents a systematic pipeline for the segmentation of LiDAR data. The LiDAR data is specifically acquired using the LiDAR sensor of a BLK2GO and stored in a PLY format. The presented pipeline uses common post-processing steps for point cloud processing. First, a RANSAC algorithm is used to remove the indoor point cloud scene from the walls, using plane detection for dominant structures. Subsequently, the indoor scene is clustered by a DBSCAN algorithm. The clustered indoor scene objects are then briefly classified manually. After the manual step, the pipeline is using a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). The GMM classifies the objects based on their probabilistic distributions of the geometric dimension. Preliminary results indicate that this workflow enables an efficient object detection with a minimal manual effort. Furthermore, the paper investigates uncertainties of process steps and gives new approaches for dealing with the uncertainties. This pipeline aims to establish a practical approach for generating input data for Scan2BIM applications.

提出了一种系统的激光雷达数据分割流水线。激光雷达数据是使用BLK2GO的激光雷达传感器专门获取的,并以PLY格式存储。所提出的管道使用通用的后处理步骤进行点云处理。首先,使用RANSAC算法从墙壁上去除室内点云场景,对优势结构使用平面检测。随后,采用DBSCAN算法对室内场景进行聚类。然后对聚类的室内场景对象进行人工简单分类。在手动步骤之后,管道使用高斯混合模型(GMM)。GMM根据物体几何尺寸的概率分布对其进行分类。初步结果表明,该工作流程能够以最小的人工工作量实现高效的目标检测。进一步研究了工艺步骤的不确定性,提出了处理不确定性的新方法。该管道旨在为Scan2BIM应用程序生成输入数据建立一种实用的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Uncertainties of a light RC specimen construction for shaking table test 振动台试验轻型RC试件结构的不确定度
Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3313
Dietlinde Köber, Christoph Butenweg, Philippe Mongabure

One of the first goals of earthquake protection is reducing the building weight. Less weight means less inertial forces and so less seismic energy for the structure to deal with. On the other hand, constructions of the future should reduce their environmental impact as much as possible. During almost 2 years a shaking table test at CEA Paris was planned. Financial support was offered by the Engineering Research Infrastructures for European Synergies (ERIES) program. Tests took place end of October 2024 on the AZALÉE shaking table. The specimen was a two stories structure having two spans in both main directions and a square plan shape. It was built almost entirely out of lightweight materials: lightweight concrete for slabs and beams and autoclaved aerated concrete (AAC) exterior and partition walls. Only the columns were built out of normal weight concrete. Multipurpose AAC blocks were used, joining thermal insulation properties, formwork for circular end columns and structural behavior. Several uncertainties were encountered during the specimen building stage and the establishment of the structural model. These uncertainties are presented and discussed in this paper.

防震的首要目标之一是减轻建筑物的重量。更轻的重量意味着更少的惯性力,因此结构需要处理的地震能量也更少。另一方面,未来的建筑应该尽可能减少对环境的影响。在将近2年的时间里,计划在CEA巴黎进行振动台试验。财政支持由欧洲协同工程研究基础设施(ERIES)项目提供。2024年10月底在AZALÉE振动台上进行了测试。该标本是一个两层结构,在两个主要方向上有两个跨度,呈方形平面形状。它几乎完全由轻质材料建造而成:用于板和梁的轻质混凝土以及蒸压加气混凝土(AAC)外墙和隔墙。只有柱子是用正常重量的混凝土建造的。使用多用途AAC块,连接隔热性能,圆形端柱模板和结构行为。在试件构建阶段和结构模型建立过程中遇到了一些不确定因素。本文提出并讨论了这些不确定性。
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引用次数: 0
Towards heat resilience of buildings: Heat impact analysis and transferability of adaptation strategies between Germany and Iran 建筑的热弹性:热影响分析和德国和伊朗之间适应策略的可转移性
Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3355
Regine Ortlepp, Christoph Schünemann

Climate change introduces significant challenges for civil engineering, especially concerning heat resilience in buildings. This study investigates the susceptibility of buildings to heat waves and explores the transferability of adaptation strategies between Germany and Iran. Building resilience is shaped by factors such as architectural design, materials, and construction methods, requiring advanced thermal simulation models to understand building performance. The analysis integrates dynamic building performance simulations, accounting for physical properties, room usage schedules, and ventilation effects, along with meteorological data like temperature, wind, and solar radiation.

By comparing the climatic conditions of Germany and Iran, the study reveals key differences in temperature patterns and their implications for building design. While both countries experience rising temperatures, Iran's climate is more stable, while Germany faces more significant seasonal fluctuations. The study also demonstrates how hourly temperature data can guide heat adaptation strategies, focusing on passive cooling in Germany and minimizing cooling energy demands in Iran. These findings underscore the importance of tailored adaptation measures, including urban planning, shading, and ventilation improvements, to enhance heat resilience in response to local climate conditions.

气候变化给土木工程带来了巨大的挑战,特别是在建筑的热弹性方面。本研究调查了建筑物对热浪的易感性,并探讨了德国和伊朗之间适应策略的可转移性。建筑弹性受建筑设计、材料和施工方法等因素的影响,需要先进的热模拟模型来了解建筑性能。该分析集成了动态建筑性能模拟,考虑了物理特性、房间使用时间表和通风效果,以及温度、风和太阳辐射等气象数据。通过比较德国和伊朗的气候条件,该研究揭示了温度模式的关键差异及其对建筑设计的影响。虽然两国都经历了气温上升,但伊朗的气候更为稳定,而德国则面临着更大的季节性波动。该研究还展示了每小时温度数据如何指导热适应策略,重点是德国的被动冷却,以及伊朗的冷却能源需求最小化。这些发现强调了有针对性的适应措施的重要性,包括城市规划、遮阳和通风改善,以增强热恢复能力,以应对当地气候条件。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal design of tuned mass dampers in structural dynamics under consideration of uncertainty 考虑不确定性的结构动力学调谐质量阻尼器优化设计
Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3311
Thomas Most, Volkmar Zabel, Rohan Raj Das

In the following paper, the influence of uncertainties is investigated for the dynamical behavior of structures improved by tuned mass dampers. Typically, the performance in terms of maximum displacements or accelerations can be improved significantly by additional damper devices. However, the tuning is very sensitive to the physical properties of the structure and dampers. Within this paper, we investigate the uncertainty propagation by an efficient linearization approach within an optimization of the nominal damper parameters. The extension for multi-degree-of-freedom systems is realized by a simplified decoupled solution of the steady-state vibration. The uncertainty propagation is investigated with the introduced linearization approach and regression-based sensitivity analysis is applied to quantify the degree of nonlinearity and the contribution of the input parameters.

本文将研究不确定性对调谐质量阻尼器改善结构的动力性能的影响。通常,在最大位移或加速度方面的性能可以通过额外的阻尼装置得到显著改善。然而,调谐对结构和阻尼器的物理特性非常敏感。在本文中,我们通过一种有效的线性化方法研究了在标称阻尼器参数优化中的不确定性传播。多自由度系统的扩展是通过简化稳态振动解耦来实现的。采用引入的线性化方法研究了不确定性的传播,并采用基于回归的灵敏度分析来量化非线性程度和输入参数的贡献。
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引用次数: 0
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