China Population, Resources and Environment最新文献

To analyze the impact of the related economic factors on China's energy demand, Path analysis is used to analyze the major factors and their direct and indirect effects on energy demand. This study showed that the main factors that affect the energy demand are the economic growth, the total population, and the primary energy structure, the economic growth is the main determining factor, and the primary energy structure is the major restrictive factor. On this basis and considering the multicollinearity and the validity of the forecast, we established a partial least-square (PLS) and the trend extrapolation prediction model, and then we sum up all the information to found a PLS—trend extrapolation combination forecasting model based on the optimized combining forecast theory. Finally, we obtain the probability distribution of the error using the Bayesian statistic theory and find the confidence interval of combining forecasting result. The results indicate that the outcome of combining forecasting will be more precise after using the Bayesian error correction approach.

China is a country with multinationalities. The political, social, and economic significances of the economic and social development in the minority areas have a very close connection with the modernization of the whole China's politics, society, and economy. The movement of minority rural migrants to the urban areas or to the nonagricultural industries is one of the key issues in the economic and social development in the minority rural areas. The rural population migration in the minority areas was taken as the important research topic, hoping to be of benefit to the deeper understanding of the current migration movement in China.

In this article, based on the data of the energy statistics from 1980 to 2004, we analyze the relationship between the primary energy structures, technique, management, and the energy use per unit of GDP based on the path analysis approach and present the degree of the direct, indirect, and the overall influences of the primary energy structures on the energy use per unit of GDP. The results show that the technical change and management level play a decisive role in the energy use per unit of GDP, and the ratio of oil consumption was the major limiting factor to energy use per unit of GDP. We then found the model of the energy use per unit of GDP and the structures of the primary energy consumption, eliminated the multicollinearity in the model with the path analysis result, and finally, analyzed the influence of the primary energy structure on the energy conservation.

The western region is an important strategic base of energy in China. The average per capita possession of fossil energy in the west is twice that in China. On the basis of the analysis of the mechanism how industrial structure adjustment affects energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), the energy input-output table of western China was designed and compiled. Combining multiobjective planning techniques, setting energy-saving, economic growth, and laborer's income growth as the goals, setting basic input-output relations, production capacity, and labor as the constraints, the multiobjective optimization model of western energy input-output was constructed. The results of industrial structure optimization of western China show that: with technology and product price remaining unchanged, the adjustment of the industrial structure can reduce energy consumption per unit GDP by 2.7%, at the same time ensuring the average annual increase of GDP and laborer's income of western region in excess of 8%. It indicates that industrial structure adjustment is an effective method in accomplishing the aim of energy saving. Finally, policy suggestions from four angles, such as industrial chain and financial policies, were put forward.