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Sustainable and intelligent time-series models for epidemic disease forecasting and analysis 用于流行病预测和分析的可持续智能时间序列模型
Pub Date : 2024-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.stae.2023.100064
Anureet Chhabra , Sunil K. Singh , Akash Sharma , Sudhakar Kumar , Brij B. Gupta , Varsha Arya , Kwok Tai Chui

There is an increasing risk of outbreaks escalating into epidemics, despite huge advances in medical science. Epidemics like COVID-19, Monkeypox, Influenza and HIV have been affecting people and public health infrastructure at an alarming rate around the world. COVID-19 alone has infected more than 500 million people out of which 6 million have died over 100 countries. HIV is also a major global public health issue and has claimed 85.6 million lives till 2023. Forecasting the trends of these epidemics is important in order to efficiently manage national and global health risks by improving early warning systems. Therefore an intelligent framework to forecast epidemic diseases is proposed and a detailed comparative analysis is conducted using different time-series models. This study contributes to (Sustainable Development Goal) SDG-3 by predicting epidemics disease trends precisely using ARIMA, Polynomial Regression, SARIMA, Holt’s, Fb-Prophet time-series models, which can decrease the burden on healthcare systems. Using the best-suited models, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values for Monkeypox, HIV, COVID-19 and Influenza forecasting were 0.0129, 0.0035, 0.0011, and 0.024 respectively.

尽管医学科学取得了巨大进步,但疾病爆发升级为流行病的风险却在不断增加。COVID-19 、猴痘、流感和艾滋病毒等流行病以惊人的速度影响着世界各地的人们和公共卫生基础设施。仅 COVID-19 就感染了 5 亿多人,其中 600 万人在 100 多个国家死亡。艾滋病毒也是一个重大的全球公共卫生问题,到 2023 年已夺走了 8560 万人的生命。预测这些流行病的趋势对于通过改进预警系统来有效管理国家和全球健康风险非常重要。因此,我们提出了一个预测流行病的智能框架,并使用不同的时间序列模型进行了详细的比较分析。本研究通过使用 ARIMA、多项式回归、SARIMA、Holt's、Fb-Prophet 时间序列模型精确预测流行病趋势,从而减轻医疗系统的负担,为实现(可持续发展目标)SDG-3 做出贡献。使用最合适的模型,猴痘、艾滋病毒、COVID-19 和流感预测的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)值分别为 0.0129、0.0035、0.0011 和 0.024。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of the residual effect using neuromarketing technology in audiovisual content entrepreneurship 利用神经营销技术分析视听内容创业中的剩余效应
Pub Date : 2023-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.stae.2023.100069
Marian Núñez-Cansado , Gabriel Carrascosa Méndez , David Juárez-Varón

Considering the informational overwhelm of the last few years and given the rise in new entrepreneurship of communication means, the optimization of commercial communication's marketing has become one of the primary objectives of marketing strategy. The quantitative computation of the number of impacts has been rendered insufficient for evaluating and planning a communication campaign. Strategic planning relies on increasingly more precise models for determining the desired formula. These models do not typically take the physiological parameter essential to decision-making into account: emotion. The technologies applied to the new methodologies that neuromarketing brings rely on great support from theorists and professionals, even though hardly any studies that center on strategic planning media exist. In this study, we present an analysis of the residual effect and the distortion of erroneous attribution stemming from neuromarketing's own technologies with the objective of analyzing the influence of adjacent content items on the subject's decision-making process. Cross-technologies were used: EEG and GSR, with the goal of analyzing the subject's emotional activation and motivation. The results demonstrate an emotional dragging effect and the appearance of bias of attribution with very significant values in every case, showing notable differences regarding the nature and polarity of emotions.

考虑到最近几年信息的爆炸性增长和新的传播手段的兴起,优化商业传播的市场营销已成为市场营销战略的首要目标之一。影响数量的定量计算已不足以评估和规划传播活动。战略规划依赖于越来越精确的模型来确定所需的公式。这些模型通常不考虑对决策至关重要的生理参数:情感。神经营销带来的新方法所应用的技术得到了理论家和专业人士的大力支持,尽管几乎不存在以战略规划媒体为中心的研究。在本研究中,我们分析了神经营销自身技术的残余效应和错误归因的扭曲,目的是分析相邻内容项目对受试者决策过程的影响。使用了交叉技术:脑电图和 GSR,目的是分析受试者的情绪激活和动机。结果表明,情绪拖曳效应和归因偏差的出现在每种情况下都具有非常显著的数值,并显示出情绪性质和极性方面的明显差异。
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引用次数: 0
Green marketing to promote the natural protected area 开展绿色营销,宣传自然保护区。
Pub Date : 2023-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.stae.2023.100067
Cynthia Milagros Apaza-Panca , Lucy Anamelva Flores Quevedo , Luz María Carranza Reyes

Green marketing is a tool used to encourage the promotion of goods or services, which mainly seeks to safeguard the environment from social, political, and economic activities. The objective of this study was to design green marketing strategies to promote nature tourism in the Coto de Caza El Angolo Protected Natural Area [hereinafter ANP CCEA]. A basic study with a non-experimental, descriptive and cross-sectional design with a quantitative approach was chosen. Simple random probability sampling was used, with a sample of 133 potential visitors. The technique used was the survey and the instrument used was a questionnaire with 15 items. The study showed the need to implement green marketing strategies that provide a service familiar with environmental protection, including recycling and reuse practices. Also, offer fair and competitive prices based on the customer's perspective and perceived quality. The green marketplace strategy focuses on reverse logistics and/or circular economy, given that the service provided should not generate damage to the environment during the commercialization process, nor put at risk the preservation of scarce resources. The green promotion strategy focuses on using social networks, thus optimizing the amount of resources used. In addition, villagers should create and market distinctive souvenirs of the area that are created with local resources. It is also recommended to implement social marketing strategies focused on persuading a change in behavior, using digital marketing channels such as electronic wallets and encouraging the host community to diversify and enhance the services offered.

绿色营销是一种用于鼓励推广商品或服务的工具,其主要目的是从社会、政治和经济活动中保护环境。本研究的目的是设计绿色营销战略,以促进 Coto de Caza El Angolo 自然保护区(以下简称 ANP CCEA)的自然旅游。本研究选择了一项非实验性、描述性和横截面设计的基本研究,并采用了定量方法。采用了简单随机概率抽样法,样本为 133 名潜在游客。采用的技术是调查,使用的工具是包含 15 个项目的问卷。研究表明,有必要实施绿色营销战略,提供熟悉环境保护的服务,包括回收和再利用做法。同时,根据客户的观点和感知质量,提供公平且有竞争力的价格。绿色市场战略侧重于逆向物流和/或循环经济,因为所提供的服务不应在商业化过程中对环境造成破坏,也不应危及稀缺资源的保护。绿色推广战略侧重于利用社会网络,从而优化资源使用量。此外,村民应利用当地资源制作并销售当地特色纪念品。还建议实施社会营销战略,重点是说服人们改变行为,利用电子钱包等数字营销渠道,鼓励东道社区提供多样化的服务并提高服务质量。
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引用次数: 0
Challenged global economics amid conflict in warring countries 交战国冲突中的全球经济面临挑战
Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.stae.2023.100068
Ana Tsutsunashvili , Alba Yela Aránega , Raúl Castaño Urueña

This research delves into the multifaceted challenges posed to society and regional development in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with a specific focus on the period spanning from February 2022 to February 2023 as a response to the social and entrepreneurial threats that have appeared due to the conflict. In addition, this research seeks not only to alleviate prevailing uncertainties but also to facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the economic landscape by identifying causal factors and providing a relevant contextual framework for the threats to society and regional development in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which affects sustainability both economically and socially. These disruptions have given rise to unprecedented uncertainties that could potentially trigger an irreversible cascade of shortages, leading to escalating costs of critical or irreplaceable products that directly affect regional development. This paper scrutinizes this intricate process, aiming to discern underlying patterns and mitigate the prevailing uncertainty—a state that challenges rational decision-making. In this pursuit, established economic theories are deployed to provide comprehensive insights into the evolving reality. Through an in-depth analysis of the interplay between the Covid-19 pandemic, the ensuing economic crisis, and the ramifications of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, this research reveals a stark decline in economic growth. In addition, the present study explores potential solutions, emphasizing the importance of enhancing workforce skills through meticulously designed educational strategies and promoting gender diversity in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) programs.

本研究深入探讨了俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后给社会和地区发展带来的多方面挑战,特别关注 2022 年 2 月至 2023 年 2 月这一时期,以应对冲突带来的社会和企业威胁。此外,本研究不仅寻求缓解普遍存在的不确定性,还希望通过确定俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后对社会和地区发展造成威胁的因果因素并提供相关背景框架,促进对经济格局的全面了解,这对经济和社会的可持续性都有影响。这些干扰引发了前所未有的不确定性,有可能引发一连串不可逆转的短缺,导致直接影响地区发展的关键或不可替代产品的成本上升。本文仔细研究了这一错综复杂的过程,旨在找出潜在的模式,缓解普遍存在的不确定性--一种挑战理性决策的状态。在这一过程中,本文运用了既有的经济理论,对不断变化的现实提出了全面的见解。通过对 Covid-19 大流行病、随之而来的经济危机和乌克兰-俄罗斯冲突的影响之间的相互作用进行深入分析,本研究揭示了经济增长的急剧下降。此外,本研究还探讨了潜在的解决方案,强调了通过精心设计的教育战略提高劳动力技能以及在科学、技术、工程和数学(STEM)课程中促进性别多样性的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Analysing the efficiency of public policies on gender-based violence: A literature review 分析性别暴力公共政策的效率:文献综述
Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.stae.2023.100066
Pilar Guaita-Fernández , José María Martín Martín , Samuel Ribeiro-Navarrete , Rosa Puertas

Gender-based violence is a global scourge advancing unchecked, penetrating all social and cultural strata. Physical, sexual and emotional abuse seriously affects women's freedom, with consequences not only psychological and physical but also economic, in the form of health, labour, legal and police costs. Therefore, society demands effective governmental measures based on respect for human rights and aimed at promoting equality to avoid intimidation and ill-treatment. This paper proposes to carry out a bibliometric analysis of the literature to investigate the state of the art of public policy and gender violence or domestic violence or violence against women to detect the patterns of behaviour that have marked the lines of study over the last two decades (2001–2022), by analysing a sample of 355 articles. The results reveal that scientific production has grown exponentially recently, with Brazil and the USA having the most significant involvement. Furthermore, three clearly differentiated lines of research are evident: the detection of risk factors and prevention measures; feminist movements aimed at empowering women, seeking their independence; and the qualification of care services supported by public policies. However, they all have the same objective, to achieve gender homogeneity and stop any type of violence against women and girls.

基于性别的暴力是一种全球性的祸害,肆意蔓延,渗透到社会和文化的各个阶层。身体虐待、性虐待和精神虐待严重影响了妇女的自由,其后果不仅是心理和身体上的,而且还有经济上的,如健康、劳动、法律和警务费用。因此,社会要求政府在尊重人权的基础上采取有效措施,促进平等,避免恐吓和虐待。本文建议对文献进行文献计量分析,通过对 355 篇文章进行抽样分析,研究公共政策与性别暴 力、家庭暴力或暴力侵害妇女行为的最新进展情况,以发现过去二十年(2001-2022 年)研究路线 的行为模式。研究结果表明,最近的科研成果成倍增长,其中巴西和美国的参与度最高。此外,还发现了三个明显不同的研究方向:风险因素检测和预防措施;旨在赋予妇女权力、寻求妇女独立的女权运动;以及公共政策支持下的护理服务质量。然而,它们都有一个共同的目标,即实现性别平等和制止对妇女和女童的任何类型的暴力。
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引用次数: 0
Gender differences and trends in the use of wearables in marathons 马拉松比赛中使用可穿戴设备的性别差异和趋势
Pub Date : 2023-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.stae.2023.100063
Javier Lluch , Francisco Abad , Ángeles Calduch-Losa , M. Rebollo , M.-Carmen Juan

Our study analyzes the wearable device preferences of long-distance runners and examines the differences between genders, regions (the USA and Europe), age, and performance. We have analyzed 237,336 records from eight of the world’s most famous marathons between 2016 and 2019. Our study takes into account the device model, family, and type. We have found that Garmin devices are the most widely used in this type of race, accounting for more than 75% of the records. Women generally prefer more economical, non-specific, and lighter devices, while men increasingly use specialized trail and multisport devices. Moreover, we have observed differences in device preferences among different age groups and performance levels. The manufacturers of this type of technology are making strides toward sustainability, with a focus on energy efficiency, sustainable materials, durability, environmental certifications, and recycling programs.

我们的研究分析了长跑运动员对可穿戴设备的偏好,并研究了性别、地区(美国和欧洲)、年龄和成绩之间的差异。我们分析了 2016 年至 2019 年间八场世界最著名马拉松赛事的 237336 条记录。我们的研究考虑了设备型号、系列和类型。我们发现,在这类比赛中,Garmin 设备的使用最为广泛,占到记录总数的 75% 以上。女性一般偏爱更经济、非专用和更轻便的设备,而男性则越来越多地使用专用的越野和多项运动设备。此外,我们还观察到不同年龄组和不同成绩水平的人对设备的偏好存在差异。这类技术的制造商正朝着可持续发展的方向大步迈进,重点关注能源效率、可持续材料、耐用性、环保认证和回收计划。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of insurance entrepreneurship as a hedge in times of crisis: a literature review 危机时期作为避险工具的保险创业分析:文献综述
Pub Date : 2023-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.stae.2023.100065
Haitham Nobanee , Mohammed El Hadi El Maknouzi , Hicham Sadok , Ahmad Yuosef Alodat

This study undertakes a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of war and terrorism Insurance research spanning from 1914 to 2018. Leveraging tools such as Scopus and VOSviewer, the analysis involves 56 papers to unveil evolving trends and scholarly contributions. Collaborative network maps are employed to illuminate influential authors, top journals, key papers, funding institutions, and affiliations within the domain. One of the key findings of this research is that the volume of published papers on the topic of terrorism insurance is associated with major terrorism events, and there were no published papers on this topic after the year 2018. Significantly, the research underscores the substantial impact of existing studies on understanding the repercussions of war and terrorism Insurance while pinpointing persistent gaps in the field that necessitate further exploration. The originality of this study lies in its novel approach—a thorough bibliometric analysis, filling critical research gaps to offer valuable insights for both practitioners and academics. This study's paramount importance is manifested in its potential to inform and benefit both practitioners and academics alike. By addressing research gaps, the findings contribute to the development of effective strategies for mitigating the risks associated with War and Terrorism Insurance. Essentially, this research not only advances our understanding of the complex domain but also provides practical implications for real-world applications.

本研究对 1914 年至 2018 年的战争与恐怖主义保险研究进行了全面的文献计量分析。利用 Scopus 和 VOSviewer 等工具,分析涉及 56 篇论文,以揭示不断变化的趋势和学术贡献。协作网络图用于阐明该领域内有影响力的作者、顶级期刊、关键论文、资助机构和关联关系。本研究的主要发现之一是,恐怖主义保险主题的论文发表量与重大恐怖主义事件相关,2018 年之后没有关于该主题的论文发表。值得注意的是,本研究强调了现有研究对理解战争和恐怖主义影响的重大影响,同时指出了该领域持续存在的差距,有必要进一步探索。本研究的独创性在于其新颖的方法--全面的文献计量分析,填补了重要的研究空白,为从业人员和学术界提供了宝贵的见解。这项研究的重要性体现在它有可能为实践者和学者提供信息并使其受益。通过填补研究空白,研究结果有助于制定有效战略,降低与战争和恐怖主义保险相关的风险。从根本上说,这项研究不仅促进了我们对这一复杂领域的理解,还为现实世界的应用提供了实际意义。
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引用次数: 0
The emergence of food delivery in Africa: A systematic review 非洲食品配送的出现:系统回顾
Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.stae.2023.100062
Richard Kwasi Bannor, Josephine Amponsah

Online food delivery is now the new normal in the food industry, attributed to consumers' changing lifestyles and dietary patterns. The busy schedule of consumers does not allow them to prepare a meal at home or wait long hours in a restaurant or a food joint. Instead, consumers have switched to a more reliable and quick way to deliver food to the doorstep: online food delivery, particularly in Africa. Therefore, this study was undertaken to conduct a systematic review of previous and present studies on online food delivery to unearth crucial patterns pertinent to understanding food delivery in Africa, given that there have been limited but nascent studies on food delivery. From the results, 22 articles were selected from three African countries (South Africa, Ghana, and Tanzania). The 22 articles reviewed were published from 2014 to 2022. The review highlighted three themes: the emergence of food delivery in Africa, food delivery applications, and the factors influencing consumer decisions to use food delivery platforms. Under the factors influencing consumer decision to use food delivery platforms, nine factors were identified and discussed. These factors include social status, time-saving orientation, privacy and security, safety and hygiene, convenience motivation, perceived ease of use, prior online purchase, price-saving orientation, and reviews uploaded to online food delivery apps. It is recommended that customers should check reviews and ratings on food delivery apps for safe food. Restaurants should provide proper training for their delivery staff and address delivery delays to improve customer satisfaction. Food regulatory bodies should also establish and enforce policies to enhance food safety and quality in restaurants.

由于消费者生活方式和饮食模式的变化,在线送餐如今已成为食品行业的新常态。消费者繁忙的日程安排不允许他们在家里准备一顿饭,也不允许他们在餐馆或食品店等很长时间。相反,消费者已经转向一种更可靠、更快捷的方式,将食品送到家门口:在线食品配送,尤其是在非洲。因此,考虑到关于食品配送的研究有限但尚处于起步阶段,本研究旨在对以往和目前关于在线食品配送的研究进行系统回顾,以发掘与了解非洲食品配送相关的关键模式。从结果中,选择了来自三个非洲国家(南非、加纳和坦桑尼亚)的22篇文章。被审查的22篇文章发表于2014年至2022年。审查突出了三个主题:外卖在非洲的出现、外卖应用以及影响消费者决定使用外卖平台的因素。在影响消费者使用外卖平台决策的因素中,识别并讨论了9个因素。这些因素包括社会地位、节省时间、隐私和安全、安全和卫生、便利动机、感知易用性、之前的在线购买、价格节省导向以及上传到在线外卖app上的评论。建议顾客查看外卖app上的评论和评级,以确保食品安全。餐厅应该对送餐员进行适当的培训,解决送餐延误的问题,以提高顾客的满意度。食物监管机构亦应制订和执行政策,加强食肆的食物安全和食物质素。
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引用次数: 0
Social innovation in university-community partnerships in Latin America: Exploring collaborative models 拉丁美洲大学-社区伙伴关系中的社会创新:探索合作模式
Pub Date : 2023-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.stae.2023.100061
Juan Carlos Cobo-Gómez

Social Innovation (SI) has become vital for addressing societal issues and uplifting community well-being. This article explores how universities are crucial in fostering SI through collaborative partnerships with communities. The main objective is to elucidate the primary characteristics of such partnerships that promote sustainable entrepreneurship. Universities, while communities, provide invaluable insights into localized challenges. The methodology combines abductive reasoning and case studies, evolving as theoretical frameworks, empirical fieldwork, and case analysis. Four carefully selected case studies meet specific criteria related to academia-community relationships, knowledge generation, SI narratives, socioeconomic and environmental contexts, accessibility, and participation. The study employs abductive and dialogical reasoning, combining induction and deduction to generate innovative ideas. Co-design interviews with researchers enhance the co-production process, providing a deeper understanding of SI initiatives. These interviews occurred from March 2021 to January 2023. This article highlights universities as essential agents of positive transformation, offering opportunities for students, faculty, and communities to engage in impactful endeavors. It also identifies seven key characteristics that promote SI entrepreneurship between universities and communities.

社会创新(SI)已成为解决社会问题和提高社区福祉的关键。本文探讨了大学如何通过与社区的合作伙伴关系来促进科学探究。主要目标是阐明这种促进可持续企业精神的伙伴关系的主要特点。大学和社区一样,为解决当地的挑战提供了宝贵的见解。该方法结合了溯因推理和案例研究,演变为理论框架,经验实地考察和案例分析。四个精心挑选的案例研究符合与学术界-社区关系、知识生成、科学探究叙事、社会经济和环境背景、可及性和参与相关的特定标准。该研究采用溯因推理和对话推理,将归纳与演绎相结合,产生创新思想。与研究人员的共同设计访谈加强了共同生产过程,提供了对科学探究活动的更深层次的理解。这些访谈发生在2021年3月至2023年1月。这篇文章强调了大学作为积极转变的重要代理人,为学生、教师和社区提供参与有影响力的努力的机会。它还确定了促进大学和社区之间的科学创新创业的七个关键特征。
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引用次数: 0
The economic case for blend fuels: A cost-benefit analysis in the European context 混合燃料的经济案例:欧洲背景下的成本效益分析
Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.stae.2023.100060
Cemil Koyunoğlu

In this paper, it is delved into an in-depth economic evaluation of blend fuels' adoption in Europe, emphasizing both their financial and societal implications. Starting with a technical overview, we detail the ASTM standards governing blend fuels, setting the stage for a robust economic assessment. The cost analysis scrutinizes the financial aspects, from production to distribution, including potential infrastructure adjustments. Conversely, the benefits assessment underscores blend fuels' environmental merits, enhancements in energy security, and the burgeoning economic prospects within this sector. It is aligned our insights with Europe's unique socio-economic backdrop, emphasizing its ambitious renewable energy and emissions reduction objectives. Real-world case studies from diverse European locales offer tangible insights into blend fuel successes. In culmination, our findings present a persuasive economic argument, advocating for blend fuels as a pivotal component in Europe's transition to a greener energy paradigm.

本文对混合燃料在欧洲的采用进行了深入的经济评估,强调了其财务和社会影响。从技术概述开始,我们详细介绍了管理混合燃料的ASTM标准,为稳健的经济评估奠定了基础。成本分析审查了从生产到销售的财务方面,包括潜在的基础设施调整。相反,效益评估强调了混合燃料的环境优点,增强了能源安全,以及该行业蓬勃发展的经济前景。它将我们的见解与欧洲独特的社会经济背景结合起来,强调其雄心勃勃的可再生能源和减排目标。来自欧洲不同地区的实际案例研究为混合燃料的成功提供了切实的见解。最后,我们的研究结果提出了一个有说服力的经济论点,主张将混合燃料作为欧洲向更绿色能源范式过渡的关键组成部分。
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引用次数: 0
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