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Large long-haul aircraft entry, survival, and exit in China's air transport market: The Airbus 380 and Boeing 747-8I 大型长途飞机在中国航空运输市场的进入、生存和退出:空客380和波音747-8I
Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.team.2023.10.002
Yonglei Jiang , Anming Zhang

This study explores the dynamics of entry, survival, and exit of large long-haul aircraft in China's burgeoning air transport market, focusing on the Airbus 380 and Boeing 747–8I as case studies. Utilizing rare events logistic regression and the time-dependent Cox regression model, the determinants of route entrance and survival for these aircraft from 2011 to 2021 were analyzed. The data is based on the flight plans of pertinent air routes and aircraft. Key findings include: (1) Both aircraft types favored entry into home-airfield-related, long-haul routes with a substantial existing flight volume. (2) Both aircraft exhibited prolonged survival on international long-haul routes, especially when airlines used them to bolster market share with consistent frequency. (3) Without the home-airfield advantage enjoyed by Air China, China Southern Airlines trialed the Airbus 380 on multiple occasions. Notably, if the Airbus 380 maintains operation on a route for at least 16 weeks, it demonstrates a lower likelihood of exit compared to the Boeing 747–8I.

本研究以空客380和波音747-8I为例,探讨了大型长途飞机在中国蓬勃发展的航空运输市场中的进入、生存和退出动态。利用罕见事件logistic回归和时间相关的Cox回归模型,分析了这些飞机2011年至2021年航线进入和生存的决定因素。这些数据是基于相关航线和飞机的飞行计划。主要发现包括:(1)两种类型的飞机都倾向于进入与国内机场相关的、具有大量现有航班量的长途航线。(2)这两种飞机在国际长途航线上都表现出了较长的生存时间,特别是当航空公司利用它们以一致的频率提高市场份额时。(3)由于没有国航的主场优势,南航对空客380进行了多次试验。值得注意的是,如果空客380在一条航线上保持运营至少16周,与波音747-8I相比,它的退出可能性更低。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing social equity considerations within transportation asset management 评估运输资产管理中的社会公平因素
Pub Date : 2023-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.team.2023.10.001
Fawzi G. Khalife , Erin E. Arneson , Rebecca A. Atadero , Mehmet E. Ozbek

The impacts of transportation systems on people and communities are substantial but challenging to quantify. It requires significant effort and attention for transportation agencies to improve how social concepts such as equity are effectively incorporated into transportation asset management (TAM) plans and practices. This study, therefore, looked at TAM plans and practices to assess the current application of equity and suggested ways to improve equity incorporation into TAM at the state level. A content analysis was done on the 2019 TAM plans from all U.S. states, D.C., and Puerto Rico, and the results showed that equity-related words were rarely mentioned. This indicated that TAM is one of the sectors where equity is still marginalized, and there is a strong need to improve the incorporation of equity into TAM. The study then identified several equity definitions and measures that fit the context of pavement management and, as a result, TAM. Pavement management was used for demonstration purposes as pavements are a major type of asset managed by all state Departments of Transportation (DOTs). Definitions and measures were identified by reviewing documents from the USDOT and FHWA and three sustainability rating systems widely used in transportation: Envision, Greenroads, and INVEST. In addition to these definitions and measures, this study discussed several available guides and tools that would help agencies bring equity considerations into TAM, specifically at the state level. The results indicated that although some resources provide equity definitions and measures that can be used in TAM, more work is needed to develop them to match the practices and approaches used in this sector.

交通系统对人们和社区的影响是巨大的,但难以量化。交通机构需要付出巨大的努力和关注,以改进公平等社会概念如何有效地纳入交通资产管理(TAM)计划和实践。因此,本研究着眼于TAM计划和实践,以评估股权的当前应用,并提出了在州一级改进股权纳入TAM的方法。对美国所有州、哥伦比亚特区和波多黎各的2019年TAM计划进行了内容分析,结果显示,与股权相关的词语很少被提及。这表明TAM是股权仍然被边缘化的行业之一,迫切需要改进将股权纳入TAM。然后,该研究确定了几个适合路面管理的公平定义和措施,从而确定了TAM。路面管理用于示范目的,因为路面是所有州交通部(DOT)管理的主要资产类型。定义和措施是通过审查USDOT和FHWA的文件以及交通运输中广泛使用的三个可持续性评级系统确定的:Envision、Greenroads和INVEST。除了这些定义和措施外,本研究还讨论了一些可用的指南和工具,这些指南和工具将帮助各机构将公平考虑纳入TAM,特别是在州一级。结果表明,尽管一些资源提供了可用于TAM的公平定义和措施,但还需要做更多的工作来制定这些定义和措施以与该部门使用的做法和方法相匹配。
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引用次数: 1
An integrated frequency assignment and fleet assignment model: A strategic application in the Brazilian regional aviation market 频率分配与机队分配的整合模式:在巴西区域航空市场的策略性应用
Pub Date : 2023-09-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.team.2023.09.001
Thiago Dias de Jesus , Marcelo Seido Nagano , Victor Rafael Rezende Celestino

Airlines endeavour to implement substantial measures to ensure profitability and maintain a competitive edge in the market. This entails conducting extensive studies and engaging in strategic planning to make optimal decisions. A crucial element of this process involves addressing the Fleet Assignment Problem (FAP). Typically, aircraft operating within an established network are acquired before adopting this method, rather than being selected based on an optimal solution. Consequently, incumbent airlines frequently operate in Brazilian regional aviation with fleets that are not optimised for the specific routes they serve. This study aims to explore an integrated frequency assignment and fleet assignment model, which identifies the most suitable aircraft for a given network. Model parameters were estimated from historical data from multiple incumbent airlines and were applied to a fictitious airline operating from Goiania International Airport (Brazil) as the hub. The findings from multiple test runs ascertain optimal frequency and aircraft capacity selections, as well as recommended fleet sizes. Further analysis reveals, for instance, that the Embraer E190-E2 is the most suitable aircraft for a scenario constrained to a single type of fleet, demonstrating the potential for significant profitability on the routes in the simulated network.

航空公司努力实施实质性措施,以确保盈利能力并保持市场竞争优势。这需要进行广泛的研究并参与战略规划,以做出最佳决策。该流程的一个关键要素涉及解决车队分配问题(FAP)。通常,在采用该方法之前,会获取在已建立的网络内运行的飞机,而不是基于最优解进行选择。因此,现有航空公司经常在巴西支线航空中运营,其机队没有针对其服务的特定航线进行优化。本研究旨在探索一种综合频率分配和机队分配模型,该模型可以确定给定网络中最合适的飞机。模型参数是根据多家现有航空公司的历史数据估计的,并应用于以戈亚尼亚国际机场(巴西)为枢纽运营的一家虚构航空公司。多次测试运行的结果确定了最佳频率和飞机容量选择,以及建议的机队规模。例如,进一步的分析表明,巴西航空工业公司E190-E2是最适合限制在单一机队类型的情况下的飞机,证明了在模拟网络中的航线上具有显著盈利能力的潜力。
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引用次数: 1
Impacts of public service supply on the tourism industry in the high-speed rail era: Evidence from the central regions of China 高铁时代公共服务供给对旅游业的影响:来自中国中部地区的证据
Pub Date : 2023-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.team.2023.09.002
Xiong Wang, Wanping Yang, Xiaohang Ren

Using panel data encompassing Central China’s cities from 2008 to 2019, our study employs the Spatial Autoregression (SAR) and the Spatial Difference-in-Differences (SDID) models to assess both the localized and spillover effects of public service provision on tourism. Additionally, our research explores the pivotal role of High-Speed Rail (HSR) as a moderating factor, shedding light on its influence on the relationship between public service supply and the advancement of tourism. Our study reveals that public service supply exerts a significant and even substantial impact on tourism development. Moreover, it demonstrates that the provision of public services contributes positively to the growth of tourism in neighboring cities. Further analysis indicates that the introduction of HSR has a robust influence on enhancing public service supply to stimulate tourism development. These findings offer invaluable insights for the promotion of tourism development.

利用2008年至2019年中国中部城市的面板数据,我们的研究采用空间自回归(SAR)和差异空间差分(SDID)模型来评估公共服务提供对旅游业的本地化和溢出效应。此外,我们的研究探讨了高铁作为一个调节因素的关键作用,揭示了它对公共服务供应和旅游业发展之间关系的影响。我们的研究表明,公共服务供给对旅游业发展产生了重大甚至实质性的影响。此外,这表明公共服务的提供对邻近城市的旅游业增长有积极贡献。进一步的分析表明,高铁的引入对提高公共服务供给以刺激旅游业发展具有强大的影响。这些发现为促进旅游业发展提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 1
Welfare and environmental effects of short-haul flights bans 短途航班禁令对福利和环境的影响
Pub Date : 2023-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.team.2023.08.002
Pedro Cantos-Sánchez , Rafael Moner-Colonques , Alba Ruiz-Buforn , Jose J. Sempere-Monerris

This paper explores the efficacy of short-haul flights bans in reducing environmental external costs and its effects on welfare. Recently implemented by several European countries, the ban policy assumes that the air traffic lost will be diverted to rail giving environmental gains. A model where users are also allowed to use private car and account for all transport external costs is proposed to check this measure. The ban will provoke a shift in the modal split and affect total traffic levels. Rail prices will rise, users surplus and net welfare will fall. External costs are not necessarily reduced. Finally, an ex-ante assessment is done finding that environmental costs only decrease in the Madrid-Barcelona corridor, increasing in the Madrid-Valencia one. Social welfare net of all external costs decreases by 19.6% and 3.1% respectively. Thus, a case-by-case approach for implementing short-haul flights bans would be advisable.

本文探讨了短途航班禁令在降低环境外部成本方面的效果及其对福利的影响。最近由几个欧洲国家实施的禁令政策假设,失去的空中交通将转向铁路,从而带来环境效益。提出了一种模型,允许用户使用私家车,并考虑所有交通外部成本,以检查这一措施。该禁令将引发交通方式划分的转变,并影响总交通水平。铁路价格将上涨,用户盈余和净福利将下降。外部成本不一定会降低。最后,进行了事前评估,发现马德里-巴塞罗那走廊的环境成本只会降低,而马德里-巴伦西亚走廊则会增加。扣除所有外部成本后的社会福利分别下降19.6%和3.1%。因此,实施短途航班禁令的具体做法是可取的。
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引用次数: 1
Practical aspects of artificial intelligence application in formation of competence model (on the example of railway industry) 人工智能在胜任力模型构建中的应用实践(以铁路行业为例)
Pub Date : 2023-08-18 DOI: 10.35854/1998-1627-2023-7-843-850
A. Batsokin
Aim. To determine the potential of practical application of neural networks as a tool to form a model of competencies of JSC “RZD” employees who provide operation of railway infrastructure objects.Tasks. To estimate the quality of the structure, description and level of detail of the competence model formed by a neural network by means of comparison with traditional sources containing requirements to the competence of a track mounting workman position.Methods. The theoretical (analysis, modeling, specification, classification) and empirical (comparison, description, content analysis) general scientific research methods formed the methodological basis. The generation of the competence model by means of artificial intelligence was carried out with the help of the software complex based on neural networks.Results. The structure and description of the competencies generated by the neural network correspond on the whole to the competency model of a track fitter and unified corporate requirements for the employees of JSC “RZD”. At the same time, the description of some professional competences is insufficient, which indicates the need to form an additional clarifying query to the neural network. The corporate competencies, defined by the neural network, are described in detail and contain more competencies, than the existing model of JSC “RZD” employees’ competencies.Conclusions. In order to prepare a competency model, neural networks serve as an effective tool, which allows to ensure the proper quality of competency structure generation and description. The universality of this approach lies in the possibility to generate a competency model for any position regardless of the industry. The level of inclusiveness of neural networks increases with the development of digital environment, which ensures their accessibility in practice.
的目标。确定神经网络作为工具的实际应用潜力,以形成JSC“RZD”员工的能力模型,这些员工提供铁路基础设施对象的操作。通过与包含轨道安装工人岗位胜任能力要求的传统信息源的比较,对神经网络构建的胜任能力模型的结构质量、描述质量和详细程度进行了评价。理论(分析、建模、规范、分类)和实证(比较、描述、内容分析)一般的科学研究方法构成了方法论基础。利用基于神经网络的软件复合体,实现了基于人工智能的胜任力模型生成。神经网络生成的胜任力的结构和描述总体上符合轨迹筛选者的胜任力模型和企业对JSC“RZD”员工的统一要求。同时,对某些专业能力的描述不足,这表明需要对神经网络形成额外的澄清查询。与现有的JSC“RZD”员工胜任力模型相比,神经网络定义的企业胜任力更详细,包含更多的胜任力。为了构建胜任力模型,神经网络是一种有效的工具,可以保证胜任力结构生成和描述的质量。这种方法的普遍性在于,它可以为任何职位生成一个胜任力模型,而不考虑行业。随着数字环境的发展,神经网络的包容性水平不断提高,这保证了其在实践中的可及性。
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引用次数: 0
Methodology for searching multi-criteria solutions based on digital twins 基于数字孪生的多准则解搜索方法
Pub Date : 2023-08-18 DOI: 10.35854/1998-1627-2023-7-851-858
A. Stolyarov, V. V. Gordeev, V. Abramov
Aim. To justify and propose a methodology for searching multi-criteria Pareto-optimal solutions based on the use of socio-economic models or digital twins of complex dynamical systems.Tasks. To substantiate the relevance of using predictive methods for making managerial decisions in conditions of rapid changes and the need to use for these purposes recommendation systems using socio-economic models or digital twins. To propose a methodology for searching multi-criteria Pareto-optimal solutions and to evaluate its accuracy on mathematical and socioeconomic models. To formulate recommendations and limitations on the use of this methodology.Methods. General scientific methods (analysis, synthesis, grouping), mathematical methods of searching for Pareto-optimal solutions and generation of LP -sequences, results of mathematical modelling and numerical experiments were used in the research.Results. The methodology of searching for multicriteria Pareto-optimal managerial decisions is proposed, proposals and limitations on its application are formulated.Conclusions. In conditions of rapid changes it is important to be able to make managerial decisions that take into account the influence of many factors and, accordingly, many criteria characterising the socio-economic system, and at the same time it is necessary to make these managerial decisions in accordance with the logic “from the future”. The method of searching for multi-criteria Pareto-optimal solutions based on the use of socio-economic models or digital twins is proposed. The accuracy of this method is investigated on mathematical models of different degrees of nonlinearity with different number of parameters when solving production multi-parametric problems.
的目标。证明并提出一种基于复杂动力系统的社会经济模型或数字孪生的多准则帕累托最优解搜索方法。为了证实在快速变化的条件下使用预测方法做出管理决策的相关性,以及为此目的使用使用社会经济模型或数字双胞胎的推荐系统的必要性。提出一种搜索多准则帕累托最优解的方法,并评估其在数学和社会经济模型上的准确性。制定使用本方法的建议和限制。研究采用了一般的科学方法(分析、综合、分组)、寻找帕累托最优解和生成LP -序列的数学方法、数学建模和数值实验的结果。提出了寻找多准则帕累托最优管理决策的方法,并对其应用提出了建议和限制。在迅速变化的条件下,重要的是能够在作出管理决定时考虑到许多因素的影响,因此考虑到社会经济制度的许多标准,同时必须按照"来自未来"的逻辑作出这些管理决定。提出了一种基于社会经济模型或数字孪生的多准则帕累托最优解搜索方法。针对不同非线性程度、不同参数个数的数学模型,研究了该方法在求解生产多参数问题时的精度。
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引用次数: 0
Examining the impact of air cargo growth on poor Vietnamese rural and urban households 研究航空货运增长对越南农村和城市贫困家庭的影响
Pub Date : 2023-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.team.2023.08.001
Eric Tchouamou Njoya , Peter Forsyth , Hans-Martin Niemeier , Alexandros Nikitas

This study adopts a Structural Path Analysis to explore the ways in which air cargo can play a role in reducing poverty in Vietnam. This study departs from the prevalent and extensively researched macroeconomic analysis of air cargo, focusing instead on the microeconomic and distributional effects. The results show that air cargo growth stimulates the production of the sectors that employ semi-skilled and unskilled rural workers. The results indicate that the effect of air cargo expansion on poverty is more pronounced in rural households than in urban households. The conclusion drawn from this study is that policies focused on decreasing transaction costs and enhancing human capital have the potential to amplify the effects of air cargo on poverty. Moreover, expanding air cargo and simultaneously improving human capital in Vietnam would provide the catalyst for upgrading from value-added assembling functions to higher value-added roles in global value chains.

本研究采用结构路径分析法,探讨航空货运在减少越南贫困方面发挥作用的方式。这项研究偏离了对航空货运的普遍和广泛研究的宏观经济分析,转而关注微观经济和分配效应。结果表明,航空货运的增长刺激了雇用半熟练和非熟练农村工人的部门的生产。结果表明,航空货运扩张对贫困的影响在农村家庭中比在城市家庭中更为明显。这项研究得出的结论是,侧重于降低交易成本和提高人力资本的政策有可能扩大航空货运对贫困的影响。此外,在越南扩大航空货运并同时提高人力资本将为从增值组装功能升级为全球价值链中更高增值角色提供催化剂。
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引用次数: 2
Sustainable development of territories as a factor of financial sovereignty of the Russian Federation 领土的可持续发展是俄罗斯联邦财政主权的一个因素
Pub Date : 2023-08-18 DOI: 10.35854/1998-1627-2023-7-833-842
A. Rumyantseva, T. Yurchenko
Aim. To check the availability of financial sustainability and self-sufficiency of the budget sphere of Russian regions in the period of new geopolitical challenges, as well as to develop reasoned, scientifically justified proposals that can be used in strategic territorial planning and will contribute to the financial sovereignty of the Russian Federation (RF).Tasks. To consider the concepts of “financial sovereignty”, “financial security”, “financial stability”; to assess the financial stability of Russian regions, their fiscal self-sufficiency; to build an econometric model of the dependence of regional budgets revenues on a number of factors and to identify factors contributing to an increase in the revenue part of budgets, increasing the financial stability of regions and the financial sovereignty of the Russian Federation as a whole.Methods. The authors used a systematic approach, general scientific methods of research, including comparative, logical, analysis and synthesis, economic and statistical, critical review of scientific publications. When developing recommendations, correlation and regression analysis was carried out.Results. Financial sovereignty is the objective independence of the state in carrying out domestic and foreign financial policy. It is ensured by financial security at all levels of governance and in all spheres of socio-economic life. The main factor in increasing the stability of the financial system of the Russian Federation is a stable budget system of the country and its territorial formations. The study showed that the ability of regional budgets to cover their expenditures largely depends on receipts from the federal budget. Such dependence reduces the stability of regional budgets and creates an additional burden on the federal budget. Using the correlation and regression analysis, according to the statistical data for 2021, the factors of economic development that have a positive impact on the revenue part of regional budgets and increase their sustainability were identified. In particular, in the course of the study it became clear that the cost of research and development, innovation, implementation and use of digital technology today affect the economic development of regions. Their statistically significant strong correlation with the revenues of regional budgets was revealed. The results of the study can be used in the design of strategic programs for regional development.Conclusions. There is a high dependence of regions on state support, which creates an additional burden on the federal budget, reducing its sustainability and financial sovereignty of the country. Subjects of the Russian Federation need to promote business development and stimulate its investment activity. The priority in the design of programs of strategic development of regions should be the introduction of digital technologies, increasing expenditure on research and development, innovation activities.
的目标。在新的地缘政治挑战时期,检查俄罗斯地区预算领域的财政可持续性和自给自足的可用性,以及制定合理的,科学合理的建议,可用于战略领土规划,并将有助于俄罗斯联邦(RF)的财政主权。考虑“金融主权”、“金融安全”、“金融稳定”的概念;评估俄罗斯各地区的金融稳定性、财政自给能力;建立地区预算收入对若干因素依赖的计量经济模型,并找出有助于增加预算收入部分、提高地区财政稳定和俄罗斯联邦整体财政主权的因素。作者采用了系统的方法,一般科学的研究方法,包括比较,逻辑,分析和综合,经济和统计,科学出版物的批判性审查。在制定建议时,进行了相关分析和回归分析。金融主权是国家在执行国内外金融政策时的客观独立性。这是由各级政府和社会经济生活所有领域的财政安全所保证的。增加俄罗斯联邦财政体系稳定性的主要因素是国家及其领土编制的稳定预算体系。研究表明,地区预算支付其支出的能力在很大程度上取决于来自联邦预算的收入。这种依赖降低了地区预算的稳定性,并对联邦预算造成了额外的负担。通过相关回归分析,根据2021年的统计数据,找出了对区域预算收入部分产生积极影响并提高其可持续性的经济发展因素。特别是,在研究过程中,数字技术的研发、创新、实施和使用的成本影响着当今地区的经济发展,这一点变得越来越清楚。它们与地区预算收入具有显著的统计相关性。研究结果可用于区域发展战略规划的设计。各地区高度依赖国家的支持,这给联邦预算造成了额外的负担,降低了联邦预算的可持续性和国家的财政主权。俄罗斯联邦各主体需要促进商业发展和刺激其投资活动。在设计地区战略发展计划时,优先考虑的应该是引入数字技术,增加研发和创新活动的支出。
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引用次数: 0
Trends of development of Azerbaijan’s banking sector 阿塞拜疆银行业的发展趋势
Pub Date : 2023-08-18 DOI: 10.35854/1998-1627-2023-7-859-866
M. I. Garaeva
Aim. To identify new trends in the development of the banking sector of Azerbaijan, one of the key links in the national economy of the country, based on the analysis of its condition in the last five years.Tasks. To analyse the mandate of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA), the structure of the country’s banking market, the level of banks’ capitalisation; to sum up the results of the analysis; to formulate proposals for improving the situation.Methods. The study relies on a systematic approach to solving the set tasks. The article presents different points of view of authors and analysts regarding reforms in the banking sector of Azerbaijan. The dialectical approach to the analysis of the main phenomena and regularities, as well as the systematic approach to the disclosure of the key factors of development of the national banking sector of the country served as the methodological basis of the study.Results. The main trends in the development of the banking sector of Azerbaijan were analysed, its current state was assessed, and the mandate of the CBA was determined. The research shows that the growth of the banking market, new trends in the expansion of banking services create significant qualitative changes in this market. During the year, the banking sector as a whole showed resistance to exogenous shocks.Conclusions. In the banking business of Azerbaijan, one of the special tendencies manifested in the activity of the banking services market is technological improvement and expansion of application of modern automatic systems. The analysis showed that in recent years, despite the growth of current expenses in the activity of banks, the most modern and productive communication technologies replacing labour-intensive processes are introduced. The mandate of the CBA was focused mainly on monetary policy, ensuring regulation and development of interbank centralised and other unlicensed payment systems. Monetary policy implemented by the CBA has been aimed at mitigating inflationary pressures. Although high global inflation remains risky in the context of uncertainty due to the global geopolitical and geo-economic situation, the accelerated recovery of economic growth, the country’s trade surplus and the increase in strategic foreign exchange reserves allow the macroeconomic environment of the financial system to remain stable.
的目标。根据对过去五年情况的分析,确定阿塞拜疆银行业发展的新趋势,这是该国国民经济的关键环节之一。分析阿塞拜疆中央银行(CBA)的任务,该国银行市场的结构,银行资本水平;总结分析结果;提出改善情况的建议。这项研究依靠一种系统的方法来解决既定的任务。本文提出了作者和分析师对阿塞拜疆银行业改革的不同观点。辩证的方法分析了主要现象和规律,系统的方法揭示了国家国民银行业发展的关键因素,这是研究的方法论基础。分析了阿塞拜疆银行业发展的主要趋势,评估了其现状,并确定了CBA的任务。研究表明,银行市场的增长、银行服务扩张的新趋势使这一市场发生了重大质的变化。年内,银行业整体表现出对外部冲击的抵抗力。在阿塞拜疆的银行业务中,银行服务市场活动中表现出的一个特殊趋势是技术改进和扩大现代自动系统的应用。分析表明,近年来,尽管银行活动的当前费用有所增加,但采用了最现代和最富有成效的通讯技术,取代了劳力密集的程序。CBA的职责主要集中在货币政策上,确保对银行间集中式支付系统和其他无牌支付系统的监管和发展。央行实施的货币政策旨在缓解通胀压力。尽管在全球地缘政治和地缘经济形势不确定的背景下,全球高通胀仍然存在风险,但经济增长的加速复苏、国家贸易顺差和战略外汇储备的增加,使金融体系的宏观经济环境保持稳定。
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Transport Economics and Management
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