Climatic Change最新文献

It is not clear to what extent anthropogenic activities increase meteorological drought based on regional-scale observations. This study provides a detection and attribution (D&A) analysis of external forcing on meteorological drought using the standard precipitation index for a 12-month time scale (SPI-12) on a regional scale, particularly in the Ajichay basin, from 1972 to 2020, based on models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The Regularized Optimal Fingerprinting (ROF) method is performed for D&A analyses on two SPI-12 time series (inter-annual/decadal and long-term), which are decomposed by the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD). Observed annual precipitation, greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, and anthropogenic-plus-natural (ALL) forcing show 62%, 33%, and 17% upward trends, respectively, based on the Mann-Kendall test. Additionally, the EEMD method reveals that the long-term trends of observed SPI-12, GHG, and ALL forcings exhibit nonlinear trends that have 7%, 3.5%, and 4.5% variance contribution rates of components, respectively. The scaling factor (β) presents the responses SPI-12 to external forcing using total least squares regression estimates in the ROF method. External forcing is detectable and attributable should β and an uncertainty range be greater than zero and spanning unity. The results show that for inter-annual/decadal SPI-12, greenhouse gas can be detected and separated from natural (NAT) and other anthropogenic forcings ((:beta:) =0.96 with 95% confidence interval of 0.64–1.2) in single, two, and three-signal analyses. In long-term evaluations, greenhouse gas forcing ((:beta:) =1.27 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.95–1.59) can be detected and separated from natural and other anthropogenic forcing in single, two, and three-signal analyses.

People in the Majority World disproportionately experience Loss and Damage (L&D) related to climate change. Policymakers and researchers are exploring ways to address L&D. However, significant knowledge gaps remain, including how to address what has been termed Non-Economic Loss and Damage (NELD). We contribute to filling this knowledge gap by analysing the NELD people are experiencing and by exploring autonomous responses to these impacts. This study took place in two regions of Bangladesh: the southwestern Shyamnagar Upazila and the northcentral Durgapur Upazila. We find that people autonomously formulate responses to various NELD from different climate-related hazards (e.g., droughts, floods, and heatwaves). In doing so, people rely on various factors, such as financial assets and social relationships, to respond to NELD. However, because marginalised groups and individuals have little capacity to respond, they are forced to adopt certain responses that further erode their well-being. Moving forward, interventions responding to NELD can identify, build on, support and complement some of these existing responses. We argue that strengthening the capacity of affected people will better enable people to formulate non-erosive responses to NELD.

Young people both are and will be greatly affected by climate change, an insight which can trigger a range of stressful emotions concerning the future. How young people cope with climate change as a stressor can be of importance for both moral responsibility and climate-change engagement. People often use a combination of coping strategies; however, the focus thus far has merely been on isolated coping strategies. Using a person-centered approach, the aim of this study was to examine: (1) patterns of climate-change coping among late adolescents and (2) if late adolescents characterized by unique patterns of coping differ regarding emotions concerning the future (worry, pessimism, optimism), moral responsibility, and climate-change engagement (outcome expectancy and climate-friendly food choices). A questionnaire study was conducted with 474 Swedish senior high-school students (16–22 years old, mean age: 17.91). A cluster analysis revealed three unique patterns of coping: The solution-oriented group (43%, high on problem- and meaning-focused coping), the avoidant group (33%, high on de-emphasizing and meaning-focused coping), and the uninvolved group (24%, low on all coping strategies). The solution-oriented group differed from the other two groups in reporting more climate-change worry, moral responsibility, outcome expectancy, and climate-friendly food choices. The uninvolved group reported more climate-change worry, moral responsibility, and climate-friendly food choices than the avoidant group, and the least optimism. The avoidant group was the least pessimistic. Our results reveal the importance of exploring patterns of climate-change coping to understand young people’s engagement concerning this global threat.

This study develops the use of ‘blue rings’ (BR), reflecting incomplete cell wall lignification, as a sensitive thermal indicator in bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva D.K. Bailey). Using double-stained anatomical thin-sections, we explore the climatic and topographical constraints governing BR formation by developing a time-series from 83 cores and comparing BR occurrence with the full temporal span of available climatic data (1895–2008 CE). Lignification is temperature-dependent and continues at a cellular level post-radial growth completion. As BRs reflect incomplete lignification, they can serve as a higher resolution and more sensitive proxy for past cooling than previously established tree-growth indicators. Results indicate that blue ring formation is primarily induced by low September temperatures and responds more sensitively to cooling than the well-established frost-ring record. Additionally, the occurrence and intensity of blue rings decreases gradually below the upper tree line. Bristlecone pine BRs are demonstrated to have significant capacity to enhance the reconstruction of past cooling events in North America connected with both localized and hemispheric scale forcing over multi-millennial timescales. Given its unmatched longevity, the species offers an unparalleled potential for Holocene length climate reconstruction. Findings also highlight the potential for blue rings to provide a more nuanced understanding of past temperature fluctuations across multi-millennial timescales.

The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon is concurrently influenced by urban expansion and climate change. However, the individual impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) changes and climate change remain unclear. In the present study, a high-resolution numerical Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is implemented for Hefei to assess the influences of LULC and climate change simultaneously. The comprehensive increase in UHI intensity (UHII) was 0.76 K from 2003 to 2019 in the study area. The overall influence of LULC changes on the UHI effect was a 0.33 K increase in intensity and a 190 km² expansion in coverage. The results also show that the emergence of new high-intensity urban areas developed from farmlands had the strongest impact on UHI development compared to other types of LULC changes. The overall contribution of climate change to the UHII increased by 0.27 K from 2003 to 2019. The change in the storage heat flux was found to be responsible for the nocturnal UHII variation and long-term increase in the UHII, while the sensible heat flux was responsible for the diurnal UHII.

Prominent multidecadal rainfall trends and trend reversal points in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during 1901–2020 across the four homogeneous regions of India have been examined beginning at the district level. Employing a robust rainfall pattern identification methodology, three significant rainfall trend reversal events have been identified during 1930s, 1960s, and 1980s. During the 1930s, central and northeast India witnessed a shift from increasing to decreasing rainfall trends, while the south peninsula experienced the reverse, resulting in a pronounced north-south asymmetry in rainfall pattern over India. In the 1960s, south peninsula and northwest India exhibited a reversal in rainfall trend from increasing to decreasing, with an opposite trend in northeast India, resulting in an east-west asymmetry in the rainfall pattern. Unlike the 1930s and 1960s, the rainfall trend reversal during the 1980s occurred over all four rainfall homogeneous regions. The three regions (south peninsula, central, and northwest) in India experienced rainfall trend reversal from decreasing to increasing trends, while the northeast experienced the opposite trend reversal, establishing an east-west asymmetry in the rainfall pattern. In terms of geographical extent, the rainfall trend reversal in the 1980s is the most prominent event during the last 120 years of Indian rainfall history as the maximum geographical area (~ 50%) experienced the rainfall trend reversal during this period. In terms of magnitude of rainfall amount variation, the rainfall trend reversal during the 1930s is the most prominent as more than 30% of the area had significantly higher (or lower) rainfall than the long-term average. Temporal changes are observed in the identified spatial asymmetry of rainfall pattern indicating that rainfall homogeneous regions in India must have changed over time.

Although the social and spatial dimensions of climate impacts are increasingly recognized, livelihood vulnerability studies combining gender and agro-ecology have received less attention. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, these studies have not employed stepwise Principal Component Analysis (PCA).This study examines livelihood vulnerability to climate change and variability from gender and agro-ecological perspectives in Bako-Tibe District, Ethiopia. Rural livelihood analysis was used to measure the adaptive capacity of households. Two-stage PCA was employed to index vulnerability dimensions: sensitivity and exposure in the first stage, and adaptive capacity in the second stage. The results show that disparity in adaptive capacity largely mediates vulnerability levels. Further, for agro-ecological factors, households residing within more climate exposure have better adaptive capacity; hence, they are less vulnerable than those in lower exposure agro-ecology. In all comparisons, female-headed households are significantly more vulnerable than male-headed households, but do not necessarily possess lower adaptive capacities. While agro-ecological and gender-specific factors differentiate vulnerability of male-and female-headed household across agro-ecologies, only gender-specific factors set such variations at district level and within agro-ecology. The results imply that scrutinizing the potential sensitivity of vulnerability level to study context is crucial. Results also suggest that, managing agro-ecological and/or gender-specific factors that hamper livelihood assets is vital for reducing climate-induced vulnerability.

The concrete damages of climate change are intensifying, and adaptation efforts of actors around the world are increasing, especially in coastal regions. Recommending adaptation measures for specific regions and sectors and determining long-term strategies for mitigating global climate change is essential for reducing vulnerability to climate change. This research aims to estimate the changes in climatic parameters and thermal comfort zones to determine concrete targets and offer suggestions for sectors affected by possible changes. The changes that will occur until 2100 in the Antalya basin, which is located in the southernmost part of Türkiye and is a significant hub for agricultural production and tourism, were monitored spatially using Discomfort Index (DI) and Effective Temperature taking wind velocity (ETv). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP): SSP 245 and SSP 585 predict that the quite cool areas prevailing in the area, according to ETv, will shrink by 24% and 46%, respectively, and the prevailing cold areas, according to DI, will shrink by 45% and 56%, respectively. By 2100, 5% of the area, according to SSP 245, and 25%, according to SSP 585, will turn into hot areas and move away from the comfort level. The fact that critical regions are areas with high vitality in terms of coastal tourism shows the need to prioritize adaptation policies. These discoveries are discussed in the context of critical issues such as water scarcity and food security, contributing to policy-making for effective management by suggesting specific adaptation measures.

The study examined the behavioural intention to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices (CSA) and its impact on the food-nutrition security (FNS) of farming households in South Africa. We employed a multistage sampling procedure to select rural maize farmers across the selected villages. To determine the impacts of behavioural adoption of CSA on the FNS of farming households, endogenous switching regression model (ESRM) was employed, while household dietary diversity score (HDDS) and household food insecurity access score (HFIAS) were used to determine the FNS status of the households. The findings emphasized the significance of the behavioural intentions of rural maize farmers, assessed through their attitudinal dimensions (measured in terms of perceived social norms, behavioural intentions, and control) in influencing the adoption decision of CSA practices, hence CSA adoption positively impacts FNS in South Africa. The result indicates that households that adopt CSA observe a 27% and 23% increase in HDDS and a decrease in HFIAS compared to those who do not adopt CSA practices, respectively. Thus, the outcome illustrates that the adoption of CSA practices substantially enhances the HDDS and HFIAS of rural maize farming households in South Africa. Following this backdrop, a concerted effort to raise knowledge of CSA practices through disseminating pertinent information will exert influence on the farmers' adoption behaviour towards CSA practices, which is capable of improving the FNS of rural maize farmers.

In a world of increasing pressures from climate change, water utilities need to maintain—or even improve—their ability to continue provision safe and secure water supply. To ensure capacity in service delivery, some providers have embraced different forms of interlocal collaboration. Yet, such interdependence engenders risk, thus driving some collaborating providers to enter into contractual agreements. While these agreements can reduce risk, but new complexities may still arise, especially when the agreement is capital intense and physically constrained. This study asks: i) How does perceived risk of from external climate-related pressures to public service provision affect preferences for the future of current contractual agreements? and ii) how do local efforts to offset need for collaboration shape these future preferences? This study examines how beliefs and local strategies (i.e., technical, managerial, or programmatic advances) affect contract preferences among community water systems linked through interlocal agreements. The paper discusses insights about ways ontological beliefs may shape operational decisions specific to interlocal collaboration and the potential for consolidation of water service operations.