Climatic Change最新文献

Recently, the body of research that assesses belief in climate change has grown, as has the number of studies appraising how experience with the impacts of climate change might affect public opinion. However, less research has addressed the question of whether/how people believe climate change will manifest itself in their own lives, or how it might affect behavioral responses more generally. Using two rounds of national survey data from 2016 and 2020, we examine the associations between climate risk, political party affiliation, and one potential planned adaptation behavior, relocation. Our results suggest that both exposure to risk and political identification help shape respondents’ beliefs. Several measures of risk are associated with respondents’ reports that weather/climate might cause them to move in the future and there is evidence to suggest that their awareness of risk may have increased between the two surveys. Regarding political affiliation, we find in one set of analyses that Republicans interviewed in 2020 were less likely than other political subgroups, including Republicans interviewed in 2016, to say weather/climate could have a potentially strong influence on future relocation decisions. We also find strong effects of age in one set of analyses, where younger respondents were much more likely than those at middle or older ages to report that weather/climate could exert a strong to moderate influence on a future move.

Voluntary carbon market schemes facilitate funding for projects promoting sustainable land management practices to sequester carbon in natural sinks such as biomass and soil, while also supporting agricultural production. The effectiveness of VCM schemes relies on accurate measurement mechanisms that can directly attribute carbon accumulation to project activities. However, measuring carbon sequestration in soils has proven to be difficult and costly, especially in fragmented smallholdings predominant in global agriculture. The cost and accuracy limitations of current methods to monitor soil organic carbon (SOC) limit the participation of smallholder farmers in global carbon markets, where they could potentially be compensated for adopting sustainable farming practices that provide ecosystem benefits. This study evaluates nine different approaches for SOC accounting in smallholder agricultural projects. The approaches involve the use of proximal and remote sensing, along with process models. Our evaluation centres on stakeholder requirements for the Measurement, Reporting, and Verification system, using the criteria of accuracy, level of standardisation, costs, adoptability, and the advancement of community benefits. By analysing these criteria, we highlight opportunities and challenges associated with each approach, presenting suggestions to enhance their applicability for smallholder SOC accounting. The contextual foundation of the research is a case study on the Western Kenya Soil Carbon Project. Remote sensing shows promise in reducing costs for direct and modelling-based carbon measurement. While it is already being used in certain carbon market applications, transparency is vital for broader integration. This demands collaborative work and investment in infrastructure like spectral libraries and user-friendly tools. Balancing community benefits against the detached nature of remote techniques is essential. Enhancing information access aids farmers, boosting income through improved soil and crop productivity, even with remote monitoring. Handheld sensors can involve smallholders, given consistent protocols. Engaging the community in monitoring can cut project costs, enhance agricultural capabilities, and generate extra income.

This study uses a new dataset on gauge locations and catchments to assess the impact of 21st-century climate change on the hydrology of 221 high-mountain catchments in Central Asia. A steady-state stochastic soil moisture water balance model was employed to project changes in runoff and evaporation for 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, compared to the baseline period of 1979–2011. Baseline climate data were sourced from CHELSA V21 climatology, providing daily temperature and precipitation for each subcatchment. Future projections used bias-corrected outputs from four General Circulation Models under four pathways/scenarios (SSP1 RCP 2.6, SSP2 RCP 4.5, SSP3 RCP 7.0, SSP5 RCP 8.5). Global datasets informed soil parameter distribution, and glacier ablation data were integrated to refine discharge modeling and validated against long-term catchment discharge data. The atmospheric models predict an increase in median precipitation between 5.5% to 10.1% and a rise in median temperatures by 1.9 °C to 5.6 °C by the end of the 21st century, depending on the scenario and relative to the baseline. Hydrological model projections for this period indicate increases in actual evaporation between 7.3% to 17.4% and changes in discharge between + 1.1% to –2.7% for the SSP1 RCP 2.6 and SSP5 RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Under the most extreme climate scenario (SSP5-8.5), discharge increases of 3.8% and 5.0% are anticipated during the first and second future periods, followed by a decrease of -2.7% in the third period. Significant glacier wastage is expected in lower-lying runoff zones, with overall discharge reductions in parts of the Tien Shan, including the Naryn catchment. Conversely, high-elevation areas in the Gissar-Alay and Pamir mountains are projected to experience discharge increases, driven by enhanced glacier ablation and delayed peak water, among other things. Shifts in precipitation patterns suggest more extreme but less frequent events, potentially altering the hydroclimate risk landscape in the region. Our findings highlight varied hydrological responses to climate change throughout high-mountain Central Asia. These insights inform strategies for effective and sustainable water management at the national and transboundary levels and help guide local stakeholders.

The present investigation attempted to understand the intensity, frequency and spatial coverage of rainfall, runoff, groundwater and agricultural droughts in the semi-arid region of Maharashtra during 1981–2014. For this, various indices similar to Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (probabilistic nature) were applied. The linear regression, partial correlation and Student’s t-Test techniques were also used to evaluate inter-connections in hydro-meteorological and agricultural droughts. The hydrological deficiencies mimic the pattern of meteorological droughts in the study area with respect to coverage and intensity. Moderate hydro-meteorological droughts occurred frequently (once in 3 to 4 years). Additionally, the research highlighted an increase in the frequency and intensity of hydrological droughts during the post-1990 period, possibly linked to anthropogenic interventions (dam constructions and irrigation expansion). Despite El Niño events resulting in below-average rainfall, runoff, and groundwater levels in the study area, other phenomena such as Equatorial Indian Ocean Monsoon Oscillation (EQUINOO) / Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may have played a crucial role in major drought occurrences in 1986, 2003, and 2012 (events that happen once in > 30 years). The hydro-meteorological droughts lead to agricultural droughts, as they significantly affect the rainfed and irrigated crops in terms of productivity and cropped area. This effect was particularly notable during severe and region-wide droughts in 1985-86, 2002-03, and 2011-12. Furthermore, the investigation suggested that the study area is likely to experience hydro-meteorological deficiencies with ~ 25% probability between 2029 and 2050, coupled with a significant temperature rise (by 1.05 °C). This projected scenario could exacerbate water scarcity and agricultural distress in the future (up to 2050).

The continuing effects of climate change require farmers and growers to have greater understanding of how these changes affect crop production. However, while climatic data is generally available to help provide much of that understanding, it can often be in a form not easy to digest. The proposed Combined Location Online Weather Data (CLOWD) framework is an easy-to-use online platform for analysing recent and historical weather data of any location within Australia at the click of a map. CLOWD requires no programming skills and operates in any HTML5 web browser on PC and mobile devices. It enables comparison between current and previous growing seasons over a range of environmental parameters, and can create a plain-English PDF report for offline use, using natural language generation (NLG). This paper details the platform, the design decisions taken and outlines how farmers and growers can use CLOWD to better understand current growing conditions. Prototypes of CLOWD are now online for PCs and smartphones.

The special reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have a unique character in IPCC scientific assessment. Their main purpose is to address specific timely issues of policy relevance. This article explores the nature and role of IPCC special reports along the lines of three questions: (1) the history (‘where they come from’); (2) the function (‘what they are doing’); and (3) the future (‘where they are going’). In earlier assessment cycles, special reports were characterised mostly as a direct channel for quickly responding to the request from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The conduct of special reports has been gradually institutionalised to embed its planning in the overall scoping of the entire assessment cycle. More recently, they have become a vehicle to consolidate cross-cutting scientific perspectives and serve the diverse needs of the international policy community, not only the UNFCCC. This historical evolution is, in a sense, the result of striving for greater policy relevance. Special reports have a dual political function—namely, turning into the site or object of politicised debates on science (politicisation) and serving as ‘de facto governance’ with the effect of normalising politically contested ideas (normalisation). This dual function is two different faces emerging from the process into which the IPCC is brought to deal with political controversy. The duality of the two functions also manifests inherent tensions that lie behind the IPCC’s ‘policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive’ principle. For the future of special reports, the IPCC could reconsider the role of special reports in light of the priority over comprehensive assessment reports, the responsiveness to the UNFCCC request and the selection and scope definition of timely topics. However, there will remain a trade-off between provisional science and lasting political impact caused by the future undertaking of IPCC special reports on any topic.

Snowdrifts on lake ice provide vital breeding habitats for the endangered Saimaa ringed seal. In this study, a lake ice model of Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System (WSFS-Ice) was developed for improved estimation of ice and snow conditions in Lake Saimaa during the pupping season of the Saimaa ringed seal. The WSFS-Ice model is based on energy balance, enabling reliable estimation of the ice cover evolution in current and future climate. In addition, a simple snowdrift model was used to simulate formation of snowdrifts, which are essential for the seals breeding success in Lake Saimaa. The model was calibrated against ice thickness, ice type and snow depth measurements. According to our results based on climate scenarios with intermediate representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5), the breeding habitat of the Saimaa ringed seal is significantly deteriorating during the twenty-first century. The mean depth of the snowdrifts is projected to decrease approximately to half from the 1981–2010 to 2070–99 period and at the same time the ice-covered period is reduced by one and a half months. During the mildest winters the ice cover is projected to melt even before the pupping season has ended. The results highlight the importance of climate change mitigation and active conservation measures to enhance seal population growth, enabling it to survive in a changing climate.

Climate adaptation for Indigenous communities is not as simple as making good policy; it is equally about how policy is implemented and how collaboration unfolds between settler governments and Indigenous stakeholders. Rural Alaska Native villages are among the most environmentally threatened communities in the United States. Their ability to effectively manage environmental change and preserve sovereignty depends upon successful collaboration with a range of stakeholders, especially federal agencies. For more than two decades, academics and government agencies have documented a consistent pattern of failures, particularly by federal actors, to effectively manage adaptation challenges. These obstacles are sometimes misrepresented as policy failures. While poor policy is certainly involved in these poor outcomes, this paper highlights a set of barriers to successful collaboration that are not policy issues, per se, but rather micropolitical issues; that is, they pertain to the conduct of government in the context of Tribal relationships. Unaddressed, these micropolitical issues have created obstacles to Alaska Native communities’ self-determination as they adapt to a changing landscape. These barriers are explored in a case study drawn from Typhoon Merbok, which struck Western Alaska in 2022, and empirically grounded in a series of interviews and participant observation with experts, elders, elected officials, and Tribal staff. This article concludes with several concrete recommendations to improve the practice of domestic diplomacy between Indigenous communities and colonial governments.

Capacity building is recognized as one of three means of implementation (MOI) within the Paris Agreement, along with finance and technology. There is a good reason for this, namely that all aspects of climate action require multiple forms of capacity. In fact, it could be argued that capacity is foundational even to the other two MOIs as advancing both finance and technology requires a variety of capacities across multiple specific contexts. The Global Stocktake (GST) recognized the importance of capacity building for the achievement of the Paris Agreement and included its assessment within its evaluation of progress. However, unlike the other two MOIs, no chapter within the IPCC AR6 explicitly attempts to synthesize the state of knowledge about capacity or capacity building for climate action, and coverage of capacity remains scattered across the report. In this commentary we briefly reflect on the coverage of capacity and capacity building in the IPCC’s AR6 and develop some initial proposals for how knowledge about this key MOI could be better included in future assessment processes.

The Covid-19 pandemic challenged global governance in unprecedented ways by requiring intergovernmental meetings to be held online. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this meant that the intergovernmental approval of the key findings of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) had to be conducted virtually. In this paper, we assess how the move away from face-to-face meetings affected country participation in IPCC approval sessions. Our findings demonstrate that virtual meetings increased the size of member governments’ delegations, but this did not necessarily translate into a greater number of interventions during the approval of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) as time zone differences reduced engagement levels significantly—particularly for countries from the Pacific, East Asian, and Latin American regions whose delegations often found themselves in IPCC meetings late at night and early in the morning. These results offer initial, empirically robust evidence about what online meetings can and cannot achieve for promoting more inclusive global governance at a time when the IPCC and other organizations reflect on the future use of virtual and hybrid meeting formats.