Pub Date : 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03606-0
Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu, Joris Van Acker, Hans Van de Vyver, Nils Bourland, José Mbifo Ndiapo, Théophile Besango Likwela, Michel Lokonda Wa Kipifo, Amand Mbuya Kankolongo, Jan Van den Bulcke, Hans Beeckman, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Hans Verbeeck, Kim Jacobsen, Gaston Demarée, Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs, Wannes Hubau
Abstract Meteorological stations are rare in central Africa, which leads to uncertainty in regional climatic trends. This is particularly problematic for the Congo Basin, where station coverage decreased significantly during the last few decades. Here, we present a digitized dataset of daily temperature and precipitation from the Yangambi biosphere reserve, covering the period 1960–2020 (61 years) and located in the heart of the Congo Basin. Our results confirm a long-term increase in temperature and temperature extremes since the 1960s, with strong upward trends since the early 1990s. Our results also indicate a drying trend for the dry season and intensification of the wet season since the early 2000s. Ongoing warming and increasing precipitation seasonality and intensity already have a significant impact on crop yields in Yangambi. This calls for urgent development of climate-smart and dynamic agriculture and agroforestry systems. We conclude that systematic digitization and climate recording in the Congo Basin will be critical to improve much-needed gridded benchmark datasets of climatic variables.
{"title":"Ground-based climate data show evidence of warming and intensification of the seasonal rainfall cycle during the 1960–2020 period in Yangambi, central Congo Basin","authors":"Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu, Joris Van Acker, Hans Van de Vyver, Nils Bourland, José Mbifo Ndiapo, Théophile Besango Likwela, Michel Lokonda Wa Kipifo, Amand Mbuya Kankolongo, Jan Van den Bulcke, Hans Beeckman, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Hans Verbeeck, Kim Jacobsen, Gaston Demarée, Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs, Wannes Hubau","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03606-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03606-0","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Meteorological stations are rare in central Africa, which leads to uncertainty in regional climatic trends. This is particularly problematic for the Congo Basin, where station coverage decreased significantly during the last few decades. Here, we present a digitized dataset of daily temperature and precipitation from the Yangambi biosphere reserve, covering the period 1960–2020 (61 years) and located in the heart of the Congo Basin. Our results confirm a long-term increase in temperature and temperature extremes since the 1960s, with strong upward trends since the early 1990s. Our results also indicate a drying trend for the dry season and intensification of the wet season since the early 2000s. Ongoing warming and increasing precipitation seasonality and intensity already have a significant impact on crop yields in Yangambi. This calls for urgent development of climate-smart and dynamic agriculture and agroforestry systems. We conclude that systematic digitization and climate recording in the Congo Basin will be critical to improve much-needed gridded benchmark datasets of climatic variables.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134976952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03597-y
Thi Lan Anh Dinh, Filipe Aires
{"title":"Revisiting the bias correction of climate models for impact studies","authors":"Thi Lan Anh Dinh, Filipe Aires","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03597-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03597-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134977994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03615-z
Xue Yang, Shaochun Huang
Abstract The northern high latitudes have experienced the strongest warming in the world and substantial changes in streamflow and hydrological extremes. However, there have been limited attribution studies of changes in streamflow and hydrological extremes in this region. This study provides the first trend detection and attribution assessment on 33 hydrological variables for 50 Norwegian catchments in the period 1961–2019, using observed and simulated runoff data from four hydrological models driven by factual (observed) and counterfactual forcing data. Significant increasing trends are detected in observed annual, spring and winter runoff in most catchments and significant trends towards earlier spring floods are found in 40% of catchments. The four hydrological models show similarly good performance in terms of daily discharge in both calibration and validation periods, and they can reproduce 62% of the observed significant trends considering both trend direction and significance. The counterfactual forcing data were generated by the ATTRICI model, which removed all warming trends and most significant trends in precipitation in the factual time series. Ninety-four percent of the simulated significant trends driven by the factual forcing data are insignificant under counterfactual conditions, with trend slopes approaching zero. Thus, based on the model performance in trend reproduction and the difference of significant trends under factual and counterfactual conditions, we conclude that about 58% of the observed significant trends in Norwegian catchments can be attributed mainly to climate change. The comparisons of the historical extreme events under factual and counterfactual conditions show that more than 65% of floods and droughts in the 2010s could have been magnified by climate change.
{"title":"Attribution assessment of hydrological trends and extremes to climate change for Northern high latitude catchments in Norway","authors":"Xue Yang, Shaochun Huang","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03615-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03615-z","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The northern high latitudes have experienced the strongest warming in the world and substantial changes in streamflow and hydrological extremes. However, there have been limited attribution studies of changes in streamflow and hydrological extremes in this region. This study provides the first trend detection and attribution assessment on 33 hydrological variables for 50 Norwegian catchments in the period 1961–2019, using observed and simulated runoff data from four hydrological models driven by factual (observed) and counterfactual forcing data. Significant increasing trends are detected in observed annual, spring and winter runoff in most catchments and significant trends towards earlier spring floods are found in 40% of catchments. The four hydrological models show similarly good performance in terms of daily discharge in both calibration and validation periods, and they can reproduce 62% of the observed significant trends considering both trend direction and significance. The counterfactual forcing data were generated by the ATTRICI model, which removed all warming trends and most significant trends in precipitation in the factual time series. Ninety-four percent of the simulated significant trends driven by the factual forcing data are insignificant under counterfactual conditions, with trend slopes approaching zero. Thus, based on the model performance in trend reproduction and the difference of significant trends under factual and counterfactual conditions, we conclude that about 58% of the observed significant trends in Norwegian catchments can be attributed mainly to climate change. The comparisons of the historical extreme events under factual and counterfactual conditions show that more than 65% of floods and droughts in the 2010s could have been magnified by climate change.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"122 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134934566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-29DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03613-1
Heiko Paeth, Daniel Schönbein, Luzia Keupp, Daniel Abel, Freddy Bangelesa, Miriam Baumann, Christian Büdel, Christian Hartmann, Christof Kneisel, Konstantin Kobs, Julian Krause, Martin Krech, Felix Pollinger, Christian Schäfer, Michael Steininger, Birgit Terhorst, Tobias Ullmann, Martina Wilde, Katrin Ziegler, Bernd Zimanowski, Roland Baumhauer, Andreas Hotho
Abstract There is a growing societal, economic, and political demand to translate available data on regional climate change into sector-specific, practice-oriented, and user-friendly information. The study presents a demand-driven approach to specify the impacts of regional climate change on agriculture, viticulture, and fruit and vegetable growing in Lower Franconia, southern Germany, a region with heterogeneous topography, diversified land use patterns, and intense activities in the sectors specified above. The approach is based on an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model projections, a bias correction tool, and a large spectrum of meteorological (extreme) indicators that are crucial to the agricultural sector in Central Europe, as inferred from a stakeholder survey. For several decades, Lower Franconia represents a hotspot region of climate change with enhanced heat waves, prolonged droughts, and intermittent local flooding by heavy rainfall events. Results of the high-resolution regional climate model projections indicate an increase of hot days and tropical nights by a factor of 5 and 12, respectively, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow until 2100 according to the RCP8.5 emission scenario. At the same time, droughts will occur more frequently and last longer while rainfall intensity enhances. A longer growing period starting more than 40 days earlier (compared to the reference period 1970 to 1999) implies a higher risk of late frost damage for crops, fruits, grapes, and even some tree species. In contrast, the thermal prerequisites for viticulture will be satisfied across the entire region, even at higher-elevation sites. These facets of regional climate change are made accessible to users and the public via an interactive field-resolving web portal. Altogether, they gravely challenge the historically developed land use systems in Lower Franconia and require timely adaptation and mitigation strategies.
{"title":"Climate change information tailored to the agricultural sector in Central Europe, exemplified on the region of Lower Franconia","authors":"Heiko Paeth, Daniel Schönbein, Luzia Keupp, Daniel Abel, Freddy Bangelesa, Miriam Baumann, Christian Büdel, Christian Hartmann, Christof Kneisel, Konstantin Kobs, Julian Krause, Martin Krech, Felix Pollinger, Christian Schäfer, Michael Steininger, Birgit Terhorst, Tobias Ullmann, Martina Wilde, Katrin Ziegler, Bernd Zimanowski, Roland Baumhauer, Andreas Hotho","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03613-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03613-1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract There is a growing societal, economic, and political demand to translate available data on regional climate change into sector-specific, practice-oriented, and user-friendly information. The study presents a demand-driven approach to specify the impacts of regional climate change on agriculture, viticulture, and fruit and vegetable growing in Lower Franconia, southern Germany, a region with heterogeneous topography, diversified land use patterns, and intense activities in the sectors specified above. The approach is based on an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model projections, a bias correction tool, and a large spectrum of meteorological (extreme) indicators that are crucial to the agricultural sector in Central Europe, as inferred from a stakeholder survey. For several decades, Lower Franconia represents a hotspot region of climate change with enhanced heat waves, prolonged droughts, and intermittent local flooding by heavy rainfall events. Results of the high-resolution regional climate model projections indicate an increase of hot days and tropical nights by a factor of 5 and 12, respectively, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow until 2100 according to the RCP8.5 emission scenario. At the same time, droughts will occur more frequently and last longer while rainfall intensity enhances. A longer growing period starting more than 40 days earlier (compared to the reference period 1970 to 1999) implies a higher risk of late frost damage for crops, fruits, grapes, and even some tree species. In contrast, the thermal prerequisites for viticulture will be satisfied across the entire region, even at higher-elevation sites. These facets of regional climate change are made accessible to users and the public via an interactive field-resolving web portal. Altogether, they gravely challenge the historically developed land use systems in Lower Franconia and require timely adaptation and mitigation strategies.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135200443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-28DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03614-0
H. Pallubinsky, R. P. Kramer, W. D. van Marken Lichtenbelt
Abstract With a contribution of 40% to the annual global CO 2 -emissions, the built environment needs to drastically reduce its impact, while also providing pleasant and healthy indoor spaces and protecting people from weather extremes. Over time, particularly in western and industrialized countries, buildings have evolved to shield occupants almost completely from outdoor conditions. As a consequence, humans have become so used to a constant, comfortable indoor environment that we struggle to cope with thermal fluctuations. The time has come to shift perspective, as the very protective character of buildings and provision of omnipresent comfort are neither feasible nor desirable any longer. An enormous amount of energy and resources are spent to provide tightly controlled thermal environments, often with the same target temperature all year round. However, being mostly exposed to constant, comfortable indoor temperatures can have negative impacts on health and deteriorate our human capability to deal with thermal challenges. Importantly, spending time outside the thermal comfort zone is known to enhance human thermoregulatory capacities and thermal resilience, while also improving metabolic and cardiovascular health. This perspective essay aims to draw attention to novel and yet underrepresented avenues of coping with climate challenges, both with respect to the built environment and humans. Allowing more thermal variation indoors will save precious resources, decrease the negative impact of building CO 2 -footprints, and stimulate physiological and psychological adaptation in humans, which can lead to improved resilience and health.
{"title":"Establishing resilience in times of climate change—a perspective on humans and buildings","authors":"H. Pallubinsky, R. P. Kramer, W. D. van Marken Lichtenbelt","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03614-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03614-0","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract With a contribution of 40% to the annual global CO 2 -emissions, the built environment needs to drastically reduce its impact, while also providing pleasant and healthy indoor spaces and protecting people from weather extremes. Over time, particularly in western and industrialized countries, buildings have evolved to shield occupants almost completely from outdoor conditions. As a consequence, humans have become so used to a constant, comfortable indoor environment that we struggle to cope with thermal fluctuations. The time has come to shift perspective, as the very protective character of buildings and provision of omnipresent comfort are neither feasible nor desirable any longer. An enormous amount of energy and resources are spent to provide tightly controlled thermal environments, often with the same target temperature all year round. However, being mostly exposed to constant, comfortable indoor temperatures can have negative impacts on health and deteriorate our human capability to deal with thermal challenges. Importantly, spending time outside the thermal comfort zone is known to enhance human thermoregulatory capacities and thermal resilience, while also improving metabolic and cardiovascular health. This perspective essay aims to draw attention to novel and yet underrepresented avenues of coping with climate challenges, both with respect to the built environment and humans. Allowing more thermal variation indoors will save precious resources, decrease the negative impact of building CO 2 -footprints, and stimulate physiological and psychological adaptation in humans, which can lead to improved resilience and health.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135385759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-26DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03607-z
Anna-Kathryn Leve, Hanno Michel, Ute Harms
Abstract Climate literacy (CL) comprises knowledge, skills, and attitudes that enable individuals to counteract the global threat of anthropogenic climate change. Teachers’ knowledge and pedagogy are main predictors of students’ learning outcomes, but teachers are insufficiently prepared in the interdisciplinary field of CL. In a multilevel interrogation of experts in the fields of climate science, education research, and school, we derived 13 delineated themes describing necessary knowledge concerning the scientific background of climate change as well as pedagogy and teaching strategies. These themes indicate that teachers need a broad basis of understanding the climate system, climate science, causes of, impacts of, and dealing with climate change as well as the ability to convey this interdisciplinary content into teaching, by making the topic personally relevant and strengthening students’ role as change agents. The findings underline the need to promote interdisciplinary ways of teaching towards CL and provide a baseline for the development of future teacher preparation.
{"title":"Implementing climate literacy in schools — what to teach our teachers?","authors":"Anna-Kathryn Leve, Hanno Michel, Ute Harms","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03607-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03607-z","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Climate literacy (CL) comprises knowledge, skills, and attitudes that enable individuals to counteract the global threat of anthropogenic climate change. Teachers’ knowledge and pedagogy are main predictors of students’ learning outcomes, but teachers are insufficiently prepared in the interdisciplinary field of CL. In a multilevel interrogation of experts in the fields of climate science, education research, and school, we derived 13 delineated themes describing necessary knowledge concerning the scientific background of climate change as well as pedagogy and teaching strategies. These themes indicate that teachers need a broad basis of understanding the climate system, climate science, causes of, impacts of, and dealing with climate change as well as the ability to convey this interdisciplinary content into teaching, by making the topic personally relevant and strengthening students’ role as change agents. The findings underline the need to promote interdisciplinary ways of teaching towards CL and provide a baseline for the development of future teacher preparation.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134886042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-25DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03609-x
Marcel Lumkowsky, Emily K. Carlton, David G. Victor, Astrid Dannenberg
Abstract Analysts have long advocated a linkage between international cooperation on climate change and trade measures, such as border tariffs, as a means of enforcing agreements to achieve deeper cooperation. Nevertheless, it has remained difficult to evaluate whether policy makers will allow such linkages and whether linking climate and trade would, in reality, yield beneficial effects to international cooperation. Working with a large sample of climate experts who are highly experienced in climate diplomacy and policy, we elicited how they view the legitimacy and usefulness of linking trade and climate and what factors can explain those views. We find that experts from richer countries, especially Europe, are more likely to see linkage as legitimate and effective. These experts are particularly likely to favor universal border adjustments (UBAs) that apply to all countries to level the economic playing field, rather than trade measures that define an exclusive “club” of countries making extra efforts to cut emissions while punishing non-club members. This finding reveals tensions between a shift in academic thinking about the value of club-based strategies—including clubs that use border measures for enforcement—and what climate policy experts see as valuable. European experts are particularly likely to favor UBAs and they are also least likely to see risks in implementing trade measures. In general, countries with high quality national institutions see lower risks in using trade measures to enforce greater cooperation on climate change. A particularly robust finding is that experts who perceive their home country’s emissions reduction pledge as ambitious are more likely to see risks from using trade measures. While these are the countries that could benefit the most from using trade measures, they are also the countries that are offering the most under the existing Paris Agreement. Experts seem to be increasingly aware of the dissonance between the voluntarism of the Paris Agreement and growing political pressures to apply trade measures. We also find the attributes of experts, such as training and career experience, can affect their assessments. In some models, experts with economic or business backgrounds are more likely to favor trade measures while those with careers in natural science, diplomacy, and national government are less sanguine. Our results suggest that diverging views on the need for trade-based enforcement are robust, associated with important attributes of countries such as their commitments, and likely to persist—suggesting that policy strategies favoring the use of trade measures must pay close attention to the conditions that will determine where and how trade measures can be implemented. Experts from many countries that are the biggest supporters of the Paris approach to climate cooperation also doubt the legitimacy of trade measures.
{"title":"Determining the willingness to link climate and trade policy","authors":"Marcel Lumkowsky, Emily K. Carlton, David G. Victor, Astrid Dannenberg","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03609-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03609-x","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Analysts have long advocated a linkage between international cooperation on climate change and trade measures, such as border tariffs, as a means of enforcing agreements to achieve deeper cooperation. Nevertheless, it has remained difficult to evaluate whether policy makers will allow such linkages and whether linking climate and trade would, in reality, yield beneficial effects to international cooperation. Working with a large sample of climate experts who are highly experienced in climate diplomacy and policy, we elicited how they view the legitimacy and usefulness of linking trade and climate and what factors can explain those views. We find that experts from richer countries, especially Europe, are more likely to see linkage as legitimate and effective. These experts are particularly likely to favor universal border adjustments (UBAs) that apply to all countries to level the economic playing field, rather than trade measures that define an exclusive “club” of countries making extra efforts to cut emissions while punishing non-club members. This finding reveals tensions between a shift in academic thinking about the value of club-based strategies—including clubs that use border measures for enforcement—and what climate policy experts see as valuable. European experts are particularly likely to favor UBAs and they are also least likely to see risks in implementing trade measures. In general, countries with high quality national institutions see lower risks in using trade measures to enforce greater cooperation on climate change. A particularly robust finding is that experts who perceive their home country’s emissions reduction pledge as ambitious are more likely to see risks from using trade measures. While these are the countries that could benefit the most from using trade measures, they are also the countries that are offering the most under the existing Paris Agreement. Experts seem to be increasingly aware of the dissonance between the voluntarism of the Paris Agreement and growing political pressures to apply trade measures. We also find the attributes of experts, such as training and career experience, can affect their assessments. In some models, experts with economic or business backgrounds are more likely to favor trade measures while those with careers in natural science, diplomacy, and national government are less sanguine. Our results suggest that diverging views on the need for trade-based enforcement are robust, associated with important attributes of countries such as their commitments, and likely to persist—suggesting that policy strategies favoring the use of trade measures must pay close attention to the conditions that will determine where and how trade measures can be implemented. Experts from many countries that are the biggest supporters of the Paris approach to climate cooperation also doubt the legitimacy of trade measures.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135816514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-25DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03605-1
Claire Doussard, Muriel Delabarre
Abstract This interdisciplinary study addresses the gap in understanding the perceptions of individuals regarding the role of urban green infrastructures (UGIs) in climate change adaptation, particularly with respect to biodiversity and planting composition. While climate-responsive design strategies commonly focus on increasing permeable green spaces and canopy coverage, the explicit consideration of biodiversity remains limited. By introducing a novel analytical framework, we investigate how residents in Lausanne, Switzerland, assess the impact of biodiversity and planting composition on the potential of UGIs to adapt cities to climate change. Through a questionnaire-based survey ( N = 527) and the use of photomontages and statistics, we examine the perceived potential of biodiverse versus uniform planting compositions to address climate change adaptation in Lausanne. Our findings demonstrate that respondents perceive biodiverse planting compositions as more successful strategies, attributing greater importance to trees in adaptation efforts, while overlooking the contributions of biodiverse herbaceous and shrub strata and soil permeability. Additionally, site characteristics associated with specific urban conditions significantly influence these perceptions. This evidence is subsequently discussed in two ways. Firstly, our analytical framework contributes to assessing the potential of UGIs in climate change adaptation, shedding light on the significance of planting composition. Secondly, the research emphasizes the need to transition from conventional climate-responsive approaches to more nuanced and sensitive methodologies that consider the multifaceted aspects of biodiversity. Such an approach holds promise for advancing the understanding of UGIs in climate change adaptation and informs future research directions.
{"title":"Perceptions of urban green infrastructures for climate change adaptation in Lausanne, Switzerland: unveiling the role of biodiversity and planting composition","authors":"Claire Doussard, Muriel Delabarre","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03605-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03605-1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This interdisciplinary study addresses the gap in understanding the perceptions of individuals regarding the role of urban green infrastructures (UGIs) in climate change adaptation, particularly with respect to biodiversity and planting composition. While climate-responsive design strategies commonly focus on increasing permeable green spaces and canopy coverage, the explicit consideration of biodiversity remains limited. By introducing a novel analytical framework, we investigate how residents in Lausanne, Switzerland, assess the impact of biodiversity and planting composition on the potential of UGIs to adapt cities to climate change. Through a questionnaire-based survey ( N = 527) and the use of photomontages and statistics, we examine the perceived potential of biodiverse versus uniform planting compositions to address climate change adaptation in Lausanne. Our findings demonstrate that respondents perceive biodiverse planting compositions as more successful strategies, attributing greater importance to trees in adaptation efforts, while overlooking the contributions of biodiverse herbaceous and shrub strata and soil permeability. Additionally, site characteristics associated with specific urban conditions significantly influence these perceptions. This evidence is subsequently discussed in two ways. Firstly, our analytical framework contributes to assessing the potential of UGIs in climate change adaptation, shedding light on the significance of planting composition. Secondly, the research emphasizes the need to transition from conventional climate-responsive approaches to more nuanced and sensitive methodologies that consider the multifaceted aspects of biodiversity. Such an approach holds promise for advancing the understanding of UGIs in climate change adaptation and informs future research directions.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135817325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-19DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03610-4
Yulong Yao, Wei Zhang, Ben Kirtman
{"title":"Increasing impacts of summer extreme precipitation and heatwaves in eastern China","authors":"Yulong Yao, Wei Zhang, Ben Kirtman","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03610-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03610-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"212 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135060915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-01DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03587-0
Sandy Avrutin, Philip Goodwin, Thomas H. G. Ezard
Abstract Basing a remaining carbon budget on warming targets is subject to uncertainty due to uncertainty in the relationship between carbon emissions and warming. Framing emissions targets using a warming target therefore may not prevent dangerous change throughout the entire Earth system. Here, we use a climate emulator to constrain a remaining carbon budget that is more representative of the entire Earth system by using a combination of both warming and ocean acidification targets. The warming targets considered are the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5 and 2 °C; the acidification targets are −0.17 and −0.21 pH units, informed by aragonite saturation states where coral growth begins to be compromised. The aim of the dual targets is to prevent not only damage associated with warming, but damage to corals associated with atmospheric carbon and ocean acidification. We find that considering acidification targets in conjunction with warming targets narrows the uncertainty in the remaining carbon budget, especially in situations where the acidification target is more stringent than, or of similar stringency to, the warming target. Considering a strict combination of the two more stringent targets (both targets of 1.5 °C warming and −0.17 acidification must be met), the carbon budget ranges from −74.0 to 129.8PgC. This reduces uncertainty in the carbon budget from by 29% (from 286.2PgC to 203.8PgC). This reduction comes from reducing the high-end estimate of the remaining carbon budget derived from just a warming target. Assuming an emissions rate held constant since 2021 (which is a conservative assumption), the budget towards both targets was either spent by 2019 or will be spent by 2026. Plain language summary The relationship between atmospheric CO 2 and warming is uncertain, which means that we do not know precisely how much carbon we have left to emit until we reach the Paris Agreement warming targets of 1.5 and 2 °C. However, the relationship between atmospheric CO 2 and ocean acidification is better understood, so by considering targets for acidification rather than warming alone, we can narrow down our estimate of how much emitted carbon is acceptable. Including acidification targets as well as warming targets means that we can directly address the issue of ocean acidification, which poses a threat to corals and the ecosystems reliant on them. By considering acidification and warming targets together, we can lower uncertainty in acceptable carbon emissions by 29%.
{"title":"Assessing the remaining carbon budget through the lens of policy-driven acidification and temperature targets","authors":"Sandy Avrutin, Philip Goodwin, Thomas H. G. Ezard","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03587-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03587-0","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Basing a remaining carbon budget on warming targets is subject to uncertainty due to uncertainty in the relationship between carbon emissions and warming. Framing emissions targets using a warming target therefore may not prevent dangerous change throughout the entire Earth system. Here, we use a climate emulator to constrain a remaining carbon budget that is more representative of the entire Earth system by using a combination of both warming and ocean acidification targets. The warming targets considered are the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5 and 2 °C; the acidification targets are −0.17 and −0.21 pH units, informed by aragonite saturation states where coral growth begins to be compromised. The aim of the dual targets is to prevent not only damage associated with warming, but damage to corals associated with atmospheric carbon and ocean acidification. We find that considering acidification targets in conjunction with warming targets narrows the uncertainty in the remaining carbon budget, especially in situations where the acidification target is more stringent than, or of similar stringency to, the warming target. Considering a strict combination of the two more stringent targets (both targets of 1.5 °C warming and −0.17 acidification must be met), the carbon budget ranges from −74.0 to 129.8PgC. This reduces uncertainty in the carbon budget from by 29% (from 286.2PgC to 203.8PgC). This reduction comes from reducing the high-end estimate of the remaining carbon budget derived from just a warming target. Assuming an emissions rate held constant since 2021 (which is a conservative assumption), the budget towards both targets was either spent by 2019 or will be spent by 2026. Plain language summary The relationship between atmospheric CO 2 and warming is uncertain, which means that we do not know precisely how much carbon we have left to emit until we reach the Paris Agreement warming targets of 1.5 and 2 °C. However, the relationship between atmospheric CO 2 and ocean acidification is better understood, so by considering targets for acidification rather than warming alone, we can narrow down our estimate of how much emitted carbon is acceptable. Including acidification targets as well as warming targets means that we can directly address the issue of ocean acidification, which poses a threat to corals and the ecosystems reliant on them. By considering acidification and warming targets together, we can lower uncertainty in acceptable carbon emissions by 29%.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"193 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135249088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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