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The history and future of IPCC special reports: A dual role of politicisation and normalisation 政府间气候变化专门委员会特别报告的历史与未来:政治化和正常化的双重作用
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03788-1
Shinichiro Asayama

The special reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have a unique character in IPCC scientific assessment. Their main purpose is to address specific timely issues of policy relevance. This article explores the nature and role of IPCC special reports along the lines of three questions: (1) the history (‘where they come from’); (2) the function (‘what they are doing’); and (3) the future (‘where they are going’). In earlier assessment cycles, special reports were characterised mostly as a direct channel for quickly responding to the request from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The conduct of special reports has been gradually institutionalised to embed its planning in the overall scoping of the entire assessment cycle. More recently, they have become a vehicle to consolidate cross-cutting scientific perspectives and serve the diverse needs of the international policy community, not only the UNFCCC. This historical evolution is, in a sense, the result of striving for greater policy relevance. Special reports have a dual political function—namely, turning into the site or object of politicised debates on science (politicisation) and serving as ‘de facto governance’ with the effect of normalising politically contested ideas (normalisation). This dual function is two different faces emerging from the process into which the IPCC is brought to deal with political controversy. The duality of the two functions also manifests inherent tensions that lie behind the IPCC’s ‘policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive’ principle. For the future of special reports, the IPCC could reconsider the role of special reports in light of the priority over comprehensive assessment reports, the responsiveness to the UNFCCC request and the selection and scope definition of timely topics. However, there will remain a trade-off between provisional science and lasting political impact caused by the future undertaking of IPCC special reports on any topic.

政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的特别报告在 IPCC 科学评估中具有独特性。其主要目的是及时解决与政策相关的具体问题。本文从三个方面探讨了 IPCC 特别报告的性质和作用:(1) 历史("它们从哪里来");(2) 功能("它们在做什么");(3) 未来("它们要去哪里")。在早期的评估周期中,特别报告主要是作为快速响应《联合国气候变化框架公约》 (UNFCCC)要求的直接渠道。特别报告的编写逐渐制度化,将其规划纳入整个评估周期的总体范围。最近,特别报告已成为整合跨领域科学观点和满足国际政策界(而不仅仅是《联 合国气候变化框架公约》)不同需求的工具。从某种意义上说,这一历史演变是努力提高政策相关性的结果。特别报告具有双重政治功能--即成为关于科学的政治化辩论的场所或对象(政治 化),以及作为 "事实上的治理",使政治上有争议的观点正常化(正常化)。这种双重职能是 IPCC 在处理政治争议过程中出现的两种不同面貌。这两种功能的双重性也体现了 IPCC "与政策相关,但不是政策规定 "原则背后的内在矛盾。对于特别报告的未来,IPCC 可以根据综合评估报告的优先性、对《联合国气候变化框架 公约》要求的响应以及对及时主题的选择和范围界定,重新考虑特别报告的作用。然而,在临时性科学与政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)今后就任何专题编写特别 报告所产生的持久政治影响之间,仍然存在权衡问题。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling climate change impacts on lake ice and snow demonstrates breeding habitat decline of the endangered Saimaa ringed seal 模拟气候变化对湖泊冰雪的影响表明濒危赛马环斑海豹繁殖栖息地减少
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03797-0
Juho Jakkila, Miina Auttila, Tapio Tuukkanen, Noora Veijalainen

Snowdrifts on lake ice provide vital breeding habitats for the endangered Saimaa ringed seal. In this study, a lake ice model of Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System (WSFS-Ice) was developed for improved estimation of ice and snow conditions in Lake Saimaa during the pupping season of the Saimaa ringed seal. The WSFS-Ice model is based on energy balance, enabling reliable estimation of the ice cover evolution in current and future climate. In addition, a simple snowdrift model was used to simulate formation of snowdrifts, which are essential for the seals breeding success in Lake Saimaa. The model was calibrated against ice thickness, ice type and snow depth measurements. According to our results based on climate scenarios with intermediate representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5), the breeding habitat of the Saimaa ringed seal is significantly deteriorating during the twenty-first century. The mean depth of the snowdrifts is projected to decrease approximately to half from the 1981–2010 to 2070–99 period and at the same time the ice-covered period is reduced by one and a half months. During the mildest winters the ice cover is projected to melt even before the pupping season has ended. The results highlight the importance of climate change mitigation and active conservation measures to enhance seal population growth, enabling it to survive in a changing climate.

湖冰上的雪堆为濒危的塞马环斑海豹提供了重要的繁殖栖息地。本研究开发了流域模拟和预报系统(WSFS-Ice)的湖冰模型,以改进赛马湖在赛马环斑海豹产仔季节的冰雪状况预估。WSFS-Ice 模型以能量平衡为基础,能够可靠地估计当前和未来气候下的冰盖演变情况。此外,还使用了一个简单的雪堆模型来模拟雪堆的形成,这对海豹在塞马湖中成功繁殖至关重要。该模型根据冰厚度、冰类型和雪深度测量结果进行了校准。根据我们基于中间代表浓度路径(RCP4.5)的气候情景得出的结果,21 世纪塞马湖环斑海豹的繁殖栖息地将显著恶化。据预测,从 1981-2010 年到 2070-99 年,雪堆的平均深度将减少约一半,同时冰雪覆盖期将缩短一个半月。在最温和的冬季,预计冰盖甚至会在产卵季节结束前融化。这些结果凸显了减缓气候变化和采取积极保护措施的重要性,以促进海豹种群增长,使其能够在不断变化的气候中生存。
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引用次数: 0
On Micropolitics: Climate adaptation and Indigenous governance in Western Alaska 微观政治:阿拉斯加西部的气候适应与土著治理
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03769-4
Stephen Lezak, Genevieve Rock

Climate adaptation for Indigenous communities is not as simple as making good policy; it is equally about how policy is implemented and how collaboration unfolds between settler governments and Indigenous stakeholders. Rural Alaska Native villages are among the most environmentally threatened communities in the United States. Their ability to effectively manage environmental change and preserve sovereignty depends upon successful collaboration with a range of stakeholders, especially federal agencies. For more than two decades, academics and government agencies have documented a consistent pattern of failures, particularly by federal actors, to effectively manage adaptation challenges. These obstacles are sometimes misrepresented as policy failures. While poor policy is certainly involved in these poor outcomes, this paper highlights a set of barriers to successful collaboration that are not policy issues, per se, but rather micropolitical issues; that is, they pertain to the conduct of government in the context of Tribal relationships. Unaddressed, these micropolitical issues have created obstacles to Alaska Native communities’ self-determination as they adapt to a changing landscape. These barriers are explored in a case study drawn from Typhoon Merbok, which struck Western Alaska in 2022, and empirically grounded in a series of interviews and participant observation with experts, elders, elected officials, and Tribal staff. This article concludes with several concrete recommendations to improve the practice of domestic diplomacy between Indigenous communities and colonial governments.

原住民社区的气候适应并非制定良好的政策那么简单;它同样关系到政策如何实施以及定居者政府与原住民利益相关者之间如何开展合作。阿拉斯加农村原住民村落是美国受环境威胁最严重的社区之一。他们有效管理环境变化和维护主权的能力取决于与一系列利益相关者,尤其是联邦机构的成功合作。二十多年来,学术界和政府机构记录了在有效管理适应挑战方面的一贯失败模式,尤其是联邦机构的失败。这些障碍有时被误解为政策失误。虽然政策失误肯定与这些不良结果有关,但本文强调了一系列阻碍成功合作的因素,这些因素本身并非政策问题,而是微观政治问题;也就是说,它们与部落关系背景下的政府行为有关。如果这些微观政治问题得不到解决,阿拉斯加原住民社区在适应不断变化的环境时就会遇到自决的障碍。本文以 2022 年袭击阿拉斯加西部的台风 "梅博克 "为案例,通过对专家、长老、民选官员和部落工作人员的一系列访谈和参与观察,以经验为基础,对这些障碍进行了探讨。文章最后提出了几项具体建议,以改善土著社区与殖民地政府之间的国内外交实践。
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引用次数: 0
Missing in action: capacity and capacity building in the IPCC’s AR 6 行动缺失:政府间气候变化专门委员会第六次评估报告中的能力和能力建设问题
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-15 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03746-x
Sonja Klinsky, Ambuj Sagar

Capacity building is recognized as one of three means of implementation (MOI) within the Paris Agreement, along with finance and technology. There is a good reason for this, namely that all aspects of climate action require multiple forms of capacity. In fact, it could be argued that capacity is foundational even to the other two MOIs as advancing both finance and technology requires a variety of capacities across multiple specific contexts. The Global Stocktake (GST) recognized the importance of capacity building for the achievement of the Paris Agreement and included its assessment within its evaluation of progress. However, unlike the other two MOIs, no chapter within the IPCC AR6 explicitly attempts to synthesize the state of knowledge about capacity or capacity building for climate action, and coverage of capacity remains scattered across the report. In this commentary we briefly reflect on the coverage of capacity and capacity building in the IPCC’s AR6 and develop some initial proposals for how knowledge about this key MOI could be better included in future assessment processes.

在《巴黎协定》中,能力建设与资金和技术一起被视为三种实施手段(MOI)之一。这是有充分理由的,即气候行动的各个方面都需要多种形式的能力。事实上,可以说能力甚至对其他两个实施手段也是基础性的,因为推进资金和技术都需要在多种具体情况下具备各种能力。全球评估(GST)认识到了能力建设对实现《巴黎协定》的重要性,并将其评估纳入了对进展的评价中。然而,与其他两份 MOI 不同的是,IPCC 第六次评估报告中没有一章明确尝试综合有关气候行动能力或能力建设的知识状况,对能力的论述仍然散见于报告中。在这篇评论中,我们简要反思了 IPCC 第六次评估报告中对能力和能力建设的论述,并就如何在未来的评估过程中更好地纳入有关这一关键监测指标的知识提出了一些初步建议。
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引用次数: 0
Government participation in virtual negotiations: evidence from IPCC approval sessions 政府参与虚拟谈判:政府间气候变化专门委员会审批会议的证据
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03790-7
Patrick Bayer, Lorenzo Crippa, Hannah Hughes, Erlend Hermansen

The Covid-19 pandemic challenged global governance in unprecedented ways by requiring intergovernmental meetings to be held online. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this meant that the intergovernmental approval of the key findings of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) had to be conducted virtually. In this paper, we assess how the move away from face-to-face meetings affected country participation in IPCC approval sessions. Our findings demonstrate that virtual meetings increased the size of member governments’ delegations, but this did not necessarily translate into a greater number of interventions during the approval of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) as time zone differences reduced engagement levels significantly—particularly for countries from the Pacific, East Asian, and Latin American regions whose delegations often found themselves in IPCC meetings late at night and early in the morning. These results offer initial, empirically robust evidence about what online meetings can and cannot achieve for promoting more inclusive global governance at a time when the IPCC and other organizations reflect on the future use of virtual and hybrid meeting formats.

Covid-19 大流行以前所未有的方式对全球治理提出了挑战,要求在线举行政府间会议。对于政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)来说,这意味着第六次评估报告(AR6)主要结论的政府间审批必须以虚拟方式进行。在本文中,我们评估了不再举行面对面会议对各国参与政府间气候变化专门委员会审批会议的影响。我们的研究结果表明,虚拟会议增加了成员国政府代表团的规模,但这并不一定意味着在审批《决策者摘要》(SPM)期间有更多的国家发言,因为时区差异大大降低了参与程度--尤其是太平洋、东亚和拉丁美洲地区的国家,它们的代表团经常在深夜和清晨参加 IPCC 会议。在政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)和其他组织思考未来如何使用虚拟会议和混合会议形式之际,这些结果提供了初步的有力证据,说明在线会议在促进更具包容性的全球治理方面能够实现什么,不能实现什么。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating warming trend over the tibetan plateau based on remotely sensed air temperature from 2001 to 2020 基于 2001 至 2020 年遥感气温评估西藏高原变暖趋势
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03791-6
Yan Xin, Yongming Xu, Xudong Tong, Yaping Mo, Yonghong Liu, Shanyou Zhu

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the Third Pole of the world, has experienced significant warming over the past several decades. Previous studies have mostly relied on station-observed air temperature (Ta), reanalysis data, and remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST) to analyze the warming trend over the TP. However, the uneven distribution of stations, the poor spatial resolution of reanalysis data, and the differences between LST and Ta may lead to biased warming rates. This paper first maps Ta over the TP from 2001 to 2020 based on multi-source remote sensing data, and then quantifies the spatio-temporal variations of remotely sensed Ta and elevation dependent warming (EDW) of this region. The monthly mean Ta is estimated using machine learning (ML) method year by year, and its accuracy is validated based on station-observed Ta. The coefficient of determination (R2 ranges from 0.97 to 0.98 and the mean absolute error (MAE) ranges from 1.01 to1.04 °C. The remotely sensed Ta is used to analysis warming trend and EDW over the TP. The overall warming trend of the TP during 2001–2020 is 0.17 ℃/10a, and warming mainly distributed in the eastern TP, central TP and western Kunlun Mountains. Among the four seasons, autumn shows the most significant warming, tripling the annual warming rate. Winter shows a significant cooling trend, with the warming rate of -0.18 ℃/10a. The study also reveales the existence of EDW at both the annual and seasonal scales. This paper suggests the potential of remotely sensed Ta in global warming study, and also provides an improved understanding of climate warming over the TP.

青藏高原(TP)是世界第三极,在过去几十年中经历了显著的变暖。以往的研究大多依靠观测站观测到的气温(Ta)、再分析数据和遥感地表温度(LST)来分析青藏高原的变暖趋势。然而,由于台站分布不均、再分析数据的空间分辨率较低以及 LST 和 Ta 之间的差异,可能会导致变暖率出现偏差。本文首先基于多源遥感数据绘制了 2001 至 2020 年大洋洲的 Ta 图,然后量化了该地区遥感 Ta 的时空变化和海拔增暖(EDW)。利用机器学习(ML)方法逐年估算月平均 Ta 值,并根据观测站观测到的 Ta 值验证其准确性。判定系数(R2)在 0.97 至 0.98 之间,平均绝对误差(MAE)在 1.01 至 1.04 ℃ 之间。遥感 Ta 被用来分析大洋洲的变暖趋势和 EDW。2001-2020年期间,大洋洲总体变暖趋势为0.17 ℃/10a,变暖主要分布在大洋洲东部、中部和昆仑山西部。在四个季节中,秋季增暖最为显著,年增暖率为原来的三倍。冬季呈现明显的降温趋势,升温速率为-0.18 ℃/10a。研究还揭示了在年度和季节尺度上都存在 EDW。本文提出了遥感地球观测站在全球变暖研究中的潜力,同时也提供了对TP气候变暖的更好理解。
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引用次数: 0
Should we change the term we use for “climate change”? Evidence from a national U.S. terminology experiment 我们是否应该改变 "气候变化 "一词?来自美国全国术语实验的证据
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03786-3
Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Laurel Kruke, Gale M. Sinatra, Norbert Schwarz

The terms “global warming,” “climate crisis,” “climate emergency,” and “climate justice” each draw attention to different aspects of climate change. Psychological theories of attitude formation suggest that people’s attitudes can be influenced by such variations in terminology. In a national experiment, we randomly assigned a national sample of 5,137 U.S. residents to “climate change,” “global warming,” “climate crisis,” “climate emergency,” or “climate justice” and examined their responses. Overall, “climate change” and “global warming” were rated as most familiar and most concerning, and “climate justice” the least, with ratings for “climate crisis” and “climate emergency” falling in between. Moreover, we find no evidence for “climate crisis” or “climate emergency” eliciting more perceived urgency than “climate change” or “global warming.” Rated willingness to support climate-friendly policies and eat less red meat were less affected by presented terms, but they were lowest for “climate justice.” Although effects of terms on rated familiarity, concern, and perceived urgency varied by political leaning, “climate justice” generally received the lowest ratings on these variables among Democrats, Republicans, and Independent/others. Auxiliary analyses found that when terms were unfamiliar, participants were generally less likely to express concern, urgency, policy support, or willingness to eat less red meat. We therefore recommend sticking with familiar terms, conclude that changing terminology is likely not the key solution for promoting climate action, and suggest alternative communication strategies.

全球变暖"、"气候危机"、"气候紧急状况 "和 "气候正义 "等术语分别引起了人们对气候变化不同方面的关注。态度形成的心理学理论表明,人们的态度会受到这些术语变化的影响。在一项全国性实验中,我们将 5,137 名美国居民随机分配到 "气候变化"、"全球变暖"、"气候危机"、"气候紧急状况 "或 "气候正义 "的全国样本中,并考察了他们的反应。总体而言,"气候变化 "和 "全球变暖 "被认为是最熟悉和最令人担忧的,而 "气候正义 "则被认为是最不熟悉和最令人担忧的,对 "气候危机 "和 "气候紧急情况 "的评价介于两者之间。此外,我们没有发现任何证据表明 "气候危机 "或 "气候紧急情况 "比 "气候变化 "或 "全球变暖 "更能引起人们的紧迫感。支持气候友好型政策和少吃红肉的评分意愿受提出的术语影响较小,但 "气候正义 "的评分意愿最低。虽然不同政治倾向的受访者对术语的熟悉程度、关注程度和紧迫感的影响不同,但 "气候正义 "在民主党人、共和党人和独立人士/其他人士中的评分普遍最低。辅助分析发现,当术语不熟悉时,参与者一般不太可能表达关注、紧迫性、政策支持或减少食用红肉的意愿。因此,我们建议坚持使用熟悉的术语,并得出结论:改变术语很可能不是促进气候行动的关键解决方案,我们还提出了其他传播策略。
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引用次数: 0
Agricultural soils in climate change mitigation: comparing action-based and results-based programmes for carbon sequestration 减缓气候变化中的农业土壤:比较基于行动和基于成果的固碳计划
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03787-2
Julia B. Block, Daniel Hermann, Oliver Mußhoff

Removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere is a major challenge for today’s society. A great source of potential for greenhouse gas sequestration is beneath our feet: agricultural soil. By accumulating soil organic carbon in soil, farmers can sequester carbon dioxide and simultaneously reach soils more resilient to extreme weather events. To encourage farmers to build up humus and thus sequester carbon, some humus programmes have been developed by non-governmental organisations. In this regard, action-based reward systems are on their way to challenging the established results-based approaches. Against this background, we analyse how action-based and results-based approaches, as well as other crucial features of humus programmes, affect farmers’ willingness to participate in a humus programme. We conducted a Discrete-Choice-Experiment and analysed it using a mixed logit model. The results show that farmers have a statistically significant preference for action-based humus programmes, shorter programme durations, higher incentives, and an annual and government-funded payment. More specifically, farmer participation is twice as likely if humus formation is rewarded for action rather than results. The willingness-to-accept calculation indicates that a results-based humus programme would cost the funding agency about €20 more per ton of carbon dioxide sequestered in the soil. Above all, humus programmes with an action-based approach and annual payments would increase farmers’ willingness to participate. Our results contribute to the development of targeted humus programmes and policies to increase carbon sequestration in agricultural soils.

清除大气中的温室气体是当今社会面临的一项重大挑战。温室气体封存的一个巨大潜力来源就在我们的脚下:农业土壤。通过在土壤中积累土壤有机碳,农民可以固存二氧化碳,同时提高土壤抵御极端天气事件的能力。为了鼓励农民积累腐殖质,从而固碳,非政府组织制定了一些腐殖质计划。在这方面,基于行动的奖励制度正在向既定的基于结果的方法发起挑战。在此背景下,我们分析了基于行动和基于结果的方法以及腐殖质计划的其他重要特征如何影响农民参与腐殖质计划的意愿。我们进行了离散选择实验,并使用混合 logit 模型进行了分析。结果表明,从统计学角度看,农民更倾向于以行动为基础的腐殖质计划、更短的计划持续时间、更高的激励措施以及由政府出资的年度付款。更具体地说,如果腐殖质形成的奖励是行动而不是结果,农民参与的可能性就会增加一倍。接受意愿计算表明,基于结果的腐殖质计划每在土壤中螯合一吨二氧化碳,资助机构的成本将增加约 20 欧元。最重要的是,采用基于行动的方法和年度付款的腐殖质计划将提高农民的参与意愿。我们的研究结果有助于制定有针对性的腐殖质计划和政策,以增加农业土壤的碳固存。
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引用次数: 0
Climate justice, forests, and Indigenous Peoples: toward an alternative to REDD + for the Amazon 气候正义、森林和土著人民:亚马逊地区 REDD + 的替代方案
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03774-7
Tracey Osborne, Sylvia Cifuentes, Laura Dev, Seánna Howard, Elisa Marchi, Lauren Withey, Marcelo Santos Rocha da Silva
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引用次数: 0
Climate change distress, entrapment, and suicidal ideation 气候变化带来的困扰、禁锢和自杀意念
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03784-5
Julia Brailovskaia, Tobias Teismann

Climate change distress has been shown to be associated with markers of negative mental health. However, it is unclear whether climate change distress is also associated with suicidal ideation and whether this association might be mediated by perceptions of entrapment. On this background, the purpose of the present study was to investigate the association between climate change distress/impairment, entrapment, and suicidal ideation. Participants were recruited at a university in the Ruhr region in Germany. Overall, 323 participants (68.4% female; Mage=26.14, SDage=8.35, range: 18–63 years) filled out self-report questionnaires on climate change distress/impairment, entrapment, and suicidal ideation online. Climate change distress/impairment was significantly positively associated with suicidal ideation. Entrapment completely mediated the association between climate change distress/impairment and suicidal ideation. Results underlines how stressful and existential climate change is experienced by many young persons. Findings underscore the need to develop and evaluate interventions to target climate change distress/impairment.

气候变化的困扰已被证明与消极心理健康的标志物有关。然而,目前还不清楚气候变化的困扰是否也与自杀意念有关,也不清楚这种关联是否会受到被困感的影响。在此背景下,本研究旨在调查气候变化困扰/损害、禁锢和自杀意念之间的关联。研究人员在德国鲁尔区的一所大学中招募。共有 323 名参与者(68.4% 为女性;平均年龄为 26.14 岁,最小年龄为 8.35 岁,年龄范围为 18-63 岁)在线填写了有关气候变化困扰/损害、禁锢和自杀意念的自我报告问卷。气候变化带来的困扰/损害与自杀倾向呈显著正相关。禁锢完全介导了气候变化困扰/损害与自杀意念之间的关联。研究结果凸显了气候变化给许多年轻人带来的压力和存在感。研究结果强调,有必要制定和评估针对气候变化困扰/损害的干预措施。
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引用次数: 0
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Climatic Change
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