Climatic Change最新文献

We summarise the contributions to the Topical Collection on quality of climate information for adaptation decision support. Based on these contributions, we draw some further lessons for the development of high-quality climate information and services, bridging between a "credibility-first" paradigm (exemplified by top-down information provision from systematic downscaling or impact projections) and a "salience-first" paradigm (exemplified by user-led tailored information products or storylines) by looking to identify their respective strengths and use cases. We emphasise that a more nuanced collective understanding of the dimensions of information quality in climate information and services would be beneficial to users and providers and ultimately support more confident and effective climate adaptation decisions and policy-making.

Responding to climate change requires that people engage in different forms of climate citizenship. These span from individual consumption choices, to taking part in forms of collective action to steer the behaviour of governments and in the private sector. Here we analyse data from the Net Zero Diaries project to explore how attitudes to different forms of climate citizenship develop as people become more aware about the scale of societal change required to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The Net Zero Diaries project was a deliberative mini-public, composed of 41 citizens broadly representative of the UK adult population, which convened over five months between 2021 and 2022 to debate the UK policies for reaching net zero emissions by 2050. We show that people identify government as the prime actor needed to drive the transition, but doubt that they will act due to a range of constraints vis-à-vis the public and private sector. This tension provides a novel explanation for why some people prioritise forms of individual and consumption focused climate citizenship, whilst also doubting the efficacy of such actions. We conclude by suggesting that efforts to drive more engaged forms of climate citizenship need to attend to underlying feelings about state efficacy, rather than focus on just how the issue of climate change is framed.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-024-03806-2.

Nutrient runoff from agricultural regions of the midwestern U.S. corn belt has degraded water quality in many inland and coastal water bodies such as the Great Lakes and Gulf of Mexico. Under current climate, observational studies have shown that winter cover crops can reduce dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus losses from row-cropped agricultural watersheds, but performance of cover crops in response to climate variability and climate change has not been systematically evaluated. Using the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, calibrated using multiple years of field-based data, we simulated historical and projected future nutrient loss from two representative agricultural watersheds in northern Indiana, USA. For 100% cover crop coverage, historical simulations showed a 31–33% reduction in nitrate (NO₃⁻) loss and a 15–23% reduction in Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (SRP) loss in comparison with a no-cover-crop baseline. Under climate change scenarios, without cover crops, projected warmer and wetter conditions strongly increased nutrient loss, especially in the fallow period from Oct to Apr when changes in infiltration and runoff are largest. In the absence of cover crops, annual nutrient losses for the RCP8.5 2080s scenario were 26–38% higher for NO₃⁻, and 9–46% higher for SRP. However, the effectiveness of cover crops also increased under climate change. For an ensemble of 60 climate change scenarios based on CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, 19 out of 24 ensemble-mean simulations of future nutrient loss with 100% cover crops were less than or equal to historical simulations with 100% cover crops, despite systematic increases in nutrient loss due to climate alone. These results demonstrate that planting winter cover crops over row-cropped land areas constitutes a robust climate change adaptation strategy for reducing nutrient losses from agricultural lands, enhancing resilience to a projected warmer and wetter winter climate in the midwestern U.S.

Farmers’ perceptions about climate change may help to explain the farming systems that they adopt and the effectiveness of their production practices in mitigating the negative impacts of the agricultural sector on the environment. This study analyzed the perceptions of 273 farmers participating in the Sustainable Rural Project—a large-scale climate change mitigation project in Brazil—that promoted the adoption of sustainable agricultural technologies in the Brazilian Amazon and Atlantic Forest biomes. Using a principal component analysis, we developed a Climate Change Perception Indicator (CCPI): an index to categorize farmers according to their perceptions about the impacts of climate change on agriculture. Our results indicate that farmers’ motivations to adopt sustainable agricultural practices were strongly driven by economic factors. We also found evidence to suggest that political agendas can influence farmers’ environmental perceptions. Moreover, older farmers with a higher level of education and more experience tended to demonstrate a stronger concern about climate change. However, the level of adoption of sustainable agricultural technologies was generally low, and a lack of technical knowledge and financial support may hinder widespread adoption of these practices. Thus, an approach that includes consideration of farmers’ perceptions about the impacts of climate change on their business may improve outcomes from the Sustainable Rural Project and other projects that aim to enhance the adoption of sustainable agriculture technologies.

Understanding the driving factors for the change of climatic patterns is crucial for the implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures. Significant effort has been made to understand changes in climatic patterns; however, less has been done to investigate the driving factors that influence the trends of early rainfall over Malawi. Hence, a substantial research gap exists concerning in the implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures. The present study investigates the implications of atmospheric aerosols on precipitation during the early rainfall season over Malawi. Open burning, such as bushfires and burning of crop residues by local farmers, are the major anthropogenic activities enhancing aerosol accumulation in the atmosphere and hence need to be strictly controlled over the domain and the surrounding region. The present results show that rainfall generally starts between October and November and gradually increases with the maximum observed in January and ends in March in most areas. Monthly aerosol optical depth (AOD₅₅₀) has an opposite pattern to that of rainfall with high AOD₅₅₀ (>0.4) between September and October, mostly over southern areas and along with Lake Malawi. An analysis of rainfall during the beginning of the season indicates a significant decrease of rainfall over the southern areas of Malawi, associated with high AOD₅₅₀, while insignificant change is observed over the central and northern areas associated with low AOD₅₅₀ values. Statistical analyses among AOD₅₅₀, cloud effective radius (CER), and precipitation demonstrates that negative trends of rainfall are strongly associated with a high concentration of anthropogenic aerosols from biomass burning during October. These aerosols might have absorbed excess moisture and disrupted local convective processes associated with the first rainfall that the domain receives, between the months of October and November. Therefore, regional control measures are required to reduce the excess emissions of anthropogenic aerosols into the atmosphere, such as controlling open burning during the active fire period (July-October).

What kind of ancestors will those involved in climate change countermovements (CCMs) be? Among CCMs, the Heartland Institute has been an adaptive conservative think tank in the United States (USA) over the past decades, with funding from carbon-based industry-linked groups that has amplified the reach of their claims while shaping their power and influence in the USA public sphere. Through inductive qualitative methods and grounded theory, this study appraises their ongoing clout as garnered through interviews and participant observations from the 14th International Conference on Climate Change hosted by the Heartland Institute in 2021. Thematic findings are compared and contrasted with previous interview data and participant observations at the 2011 Heartland Institute conference. This research finds ten key themes—five comparisons and five contrasts—that point to adaptive strategies deployed in ongoing and wider CCM efforts that effectively shape sustainability technology and climate policy. Similarities over time are (1) freedom and liberty; (2) attacks on relevant-expert scientists, science, and “alarmism”; (3) rhetoric of embattled underdogs fighting orthodoxies; (4) evidence of righteousness and confidence; and (5) adversarial mentalities. Differences are (1) waning attention, (2) diminished influence, (3) an increased appetite for “culture wars,” (4) more personal reflection on legacy, and (5) increased entrenchment in state-level activities such as anti-environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles initiatives. Spanning a decade, this work assesses how these Heartland Institute climate contrarians’ claims provide insights into ongoing adaptive CCM activities with critical attention paid to how they politicize and polarize decision-making at multiple scales in contemporary society.

Research shows that today’s societal crises are rooted in a lack of connection to ourselves, others and nature. At the same time, there is an increasing body of knowledge showing that humans possess innate capacities for connection that can be strengthened through certain methods, and throughout our lifetimes. Such methods have, so far, however, been rarely applied, or adapted to the context of sustainability leadership and education. Critical qualitative analyses and empirical evidence that would help to understand if, and how, related interventions can support sustainability outcomes across scales are vastly lacking. The present study addresses this gap. It examines global leadership programs that aim to nourish inner development and accelerate work towards the Sustainable Development Goals. More specifically, it systematises the qualitative impacts and learnings from a Climate Leadership Program for policy and decision-makers (e.g. the European Commission) that provided the basis for co-developing similar programs for the United Nations Development Program, the Inner Development Goals Initiative, and the Inner Green Deal. The findings demonstrate how sustainability leadership and education can become a vehicle for transformation, if certain principles are in place. They highlight the importance of addressing the ontological, epistemological and praxis dimensions of inner-outer transformation to empower participants to challenge unsustainable social paradigms and enable them to systematically mainstream the consideration of inner potential and capacities into existing cultures, mechanisms and structures. Our findings advance knowledge on the complex intersection between sustainability, inner development and transformation, and set a precedent that other training institutions could follow or learn from.

Electricity is one of the easiest—and therefore most urgent—sectors to decarbonize. In the USA, state-level Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and Clean Energy Standards (CES) are key policy tools pursuant to this objective. These policies mandate that electric utilities achieve specified renewable compositions on specified timelines. In recent US history, electricity has been decarbonizing faster than major agencies predicted, which raises the question of whether utilities are decarbonizing faster than RPS and CES targets prescribe. We address this question by comparing state-level RPS and CES targets to historical progress and stated decarbonization targets from 220 utilities, comprising at least 52% of sales in every state and 76% of sales on average. In 18 of 26 states with current RPS or CES and 9 of 11 states with expired RPS or CES, utilities’ generation and targets meet, nearly meet, or exceed state targets. We project that utility targets and linear progress thereafter put six states without current RPS or CES on track for over 90% renewable electricity by 2050, and they put US electricity on track to reach 100% renewable by 2060. Including nuclear—unlike most RPS and CES policies—makes these results starker: utilities’ past and planned generation meets or exceeds 31 of 37 state targets, 14 states without RPS or CES would decarbonize electricity by 2050, and US electricity would also decarbonize by 2050. Our results suggest that electric utility plans are mostly consistent with state-level targets but are behind the Biden administration’s target of decarbonizing electricity by 2035.