Climatic Change最新文献

Climate change significantly impacts health globally, especially in densely populated, rapidly industrialising and ecologically diverse countries like Nigeria. We analysed climate change policies, studies, programs, and events at the national and subnational levels in Nigeria and explored their effects on public and respiratory health. Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMAScR) checklist, we searched PubMed, African Journals Online (AJoL), Google Scholar and government data repositories on January 10, 2024. We synthesised results using an adapted sector-level framework based on the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Our searches returned 262 items, of which 32, including research studies, reports and grey documents, were retained for synthesis. Although some policies and programmes, like the Climate Change Act and Nigerian Climate and Health Observatory, exist, implementation is limited across many settings. Key reported respiratory pollutants in Nigeria include particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), gaseous emissions (CO, SO₂, NOx), agricultural by-products (NH₃, H₂S), greenhouse gases (CH₄, CO₂), and microbial contaminants, which collectively increase the risk of respiratory inflammation, infections, and exacerbations of chronic respiratory symptoms and diseases. Our findings underscore a clear link between climate change and worsening respiratory health in many Nigerian settings. The current policies and programmes' have limited impact, calling for comprehensive reforms, including improved enforcement and targeted action against major pollution sources, recognition of environmental rights, and stronger public health initiatives and community action.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-03880-0.

The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus framework highlights the interdependencies among water, energy, and food systems. Integrating Ecosystem Services (ESs) enhances this approach by incorporating ecological benefits for more holistic assessments. This study applies a spatially explicit ESs-based WEF nexus analysis in the Adige River Basin (Northern Italy), focusing on five ESs: water provisioning, crop yield, sediment retention, carbon storage, and landscape diversity, under two future scenarios (SSP1-RCP 2.6 and SSP5-RCP 8.5) from 2018 to 2050. Using Self-Organizing Maps, sub-basins were clustered into ESs bundles enabling the identification of tailored management strategies. Results reveal spatial heterogeneity and shifts in ESs bundles, with synergies often found in upstream, forested areas. Under high-emission scenarios, regulating services decline and provisioning services face trade-offs, especially with intensified agriculture. Key strategies suggested include maintaining environmental flows, reducing synthetic fertilizers, promoting reforestation, crop diversification, and expanding protected areas. These are structured into physical, economic, and climatic pathways aligned with EU restoration goals. Findings demonstrate the value of an ESs-bundles approach for optimizing synergies and managing trade-offs across the WEF nexus.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-04013-3.

Climate assessments consolidate our understanding of possible future climate conditions as represented by climate projections, which are largely based on the output of global climate models. Over the past 30 years, the scientific insights gained from climate projections have been refined through model structural improvements, emerging constraints on climate feedbacks, and increased computational efficiency. Within the same period, the process of assessing and evaluating information from climate projections has become more defined and targeted to inform users. As the size and audience of climate assessments has expanded, the framing, relevancy, and accessibility of projections has become increasingly important. This paper reviews the use of climate projections in national climate assessments (NCA) while highlighting challenges and opportunities that have been identified over time. Reflections and lessons learned address the continuous process to understand the broadening assessment audience and evolving user needs. Insights for future NCA development include (1) identifying benchmarks and standards for evaluating downscaled datasets, (2) expanding efforts to gather research gaps and user needs to inform how climate projections are presented in the assessment (3) providing practitioner guidance on the use, interpretation, and reporting of climate projections and uncertainty to better inform decision-making.

Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is a renewable energy system that could potentially displace significant amounts of fossil fuel-generated electricity. This study presents numerous multi-century simulations of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, a coupled climate-carbon cycle model, to better understand the global-scale environmental impacts of the widespread implementation of OTEC at varying total power levels (3, 5, 7, 10, and 15 TW). Environmental impacts include reduced warming of the sea surface by up to 3.1 ºC, increased heat uptake at intermediate depths, and enhanced biological production compared to a fossil fuel intensive control scenario. At year 2100, OTEC-induced mixing contributes roughly 60% of the relative cooling, while the remainder is from OTEC-related emission reductions. Once OTEC is terminated, all relative cooling is caused by accumulated emissions reductions. If acting alone, the residual effect of OTEC-induced mixing would contribute to a minor relative warming of the sea surface. The effect of OTEC on the expansion of known oxygen minimum zones was minimal. In many circumstances, OTEC deployment opposes the projected impacts of climate change. Relative to a high carbon emissions control scenario, OTEC deployment is associated with less surface warming, a smaller increase in surface water pCO₂, a suppression of ocean acidification, and significantly smaller declines in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Despite the potential engineering challenges and economic costs, early indications suggest that the large-scale implementation of OTEC could make a substantial contribution to climate change mitigation.

Despite the substantial body of knowledge available regarding the nexus between climate and conflict, this knowledge remains scattered, fragmented and incomplete. There are various interpretations of how this nexus plays out, as well as different perspectives on the spectrum of "climate conflict" in fragile and conflict-affected areas. This is particularly the case in the Lake Chad region, an area that is often portrayed as a unique "testbed" for understanding climate conflict relations. This study systematically mapped and analysed published work on the nexus of climate and conflict, synthesising narratives and unpacking evidence on what we know, do not know and need to know about the nexus in the Lake Chad region. Our findings outline six key areas of knowledge that provide evidence on the nexus, including (i) how the nexus has evolved with the ongoing increase in regional climatic stress where temperatures are rising 1.5 times faster than the global average, (ii) whether studies link climatic events to different stages of the conflict cycle or the conflict continuum, and (iii) whether climatic events also introduce new forms of conflict along the conflict continuum. We note that studies failed to ask how fragility (assessed in terms of lack of state legitimacy, capacity and authority) shapes group identity/solidarity and spatiotemporal variations in climate-conflict nexus patterns and impacts. We suggest that the spectrum of what is considered "climate conflict" be expanded, paying particular attention to the continuum (including phases and cycles) of conflict and how different conflict types interact and reinforce one another under climate shocks. Ultimately, knowledge co-creation can help integrate fragmented evidence about the nexus, fostering a unified, coherent and verifiable body of knowledge that can support joint climate and peace initiatives and wider transformative change across the region.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-04024-0.

In light of the far-reaching consequences of ineffective natural resource management, an expanding body of scholarly investigation has emphasized environmental and economic repercussions while largely overlooking the implications for public health and social development. The present research fills this gap by investigating the influence of green technological innovation and natural resource management on health risks and social development in eleven leading industrial economies. The analysis employs extensive second-generation econometrics techniques on data framework from 1990 to 2019, controlling for variables such as gross domestic product, economic complexity, fossil fuel consumption, and foreign direct investment. The results of the CS-ARDL model indicate that green technological innovations significantly reduce health risks in both the short and long run while also improving social development. Conversely, resource management increases health risks but also contributes to social development in underlying countries. Economic complexity initially increases health risks in the short run but eventually improves in the long run. Additionally, gross domestic product positively affects social development but imposes health risks in the long run. Robustness checks, specifically the AMG test, confirm the results’ consistency and reliability. The findings emphasize the importance of implementing appropriate resource policy measures to effectively reduce health risks through responsible resource management practices and the widespread diffusion of green technology.

Historically, the basic materials industry has had relatively low R&D expenditure levels, raising concerns about meeting 2050 climate targets given the crucial need for innovation and technology advancement in this industry. Decisive government intervention and active support for key technological pathways are required to address significant market failures and catalyse industrial decarbonisation. This Essay lays out the economic justification for an active green industrial policy and proposes key policy design principles, with the aim of striking a balance between facilitating the green industrial transition and maintaining cost efficiency in meeting climate targets.

Since the launch of the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), we have witnessed a steady increase in the number of companies committing to climate targets for large-scale reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While recent studies present various methodologies for establishing climate targets (e.g., sectoral decarbonization approach, near-term, long-term, net zero), we still don’t understand the explanatory factors determining the level of ambition companies demonstrate in target setting. In this paper, a two-stage qualitative study is conducted with a sample of 22 companies from five countries. First, these companies’ publicly disclosed climate targets are evaluated according to four target ambition criteria: target type, scope, timeframe, and temperature alignment. Secondly, multiple explanatory factors for target setting were identified during the content analysis of the interviews to see how present these factors appear in the ambition levels. Within companies with highly ambitious climate targets, the findings indicate that certain factors are highly present, including leadership engagement, continual management support, employee involvement, participation in climate initiatives, and stakeholder collaboration. Conversely, none of these key factors are highly present in companies with less ambitious climate targets. Rather, these companies strongly identify the initiating factors of market-related pressures and non-market stakeholder influence as being the driving forces behind their target setting. This paper contributes to the literature on corporate responses to climate change by expanding our understanding of explanatory factors for different corporate climate target ambition levels.

Quantifying the vulnerability of population to multi-faceted climate change impacts on human well-being remains an urgent task. Recently, weather and climate extremes have evolved into bivariate events that heighten climate risks in unexpected ways. To investigate the potential impacts of climate extremes, this study analyzes the frequency, magnitude, and severity of observed and future compound hot-dry extremes (CHDEs) over East Africa. The CHDE events were computed from the observed precipitation and maximum temperature data of the Climatic Research Unit gridded Timeseries version five (CRU TS4.05) and outputs of climate models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, this study quantifies the population exposure to CHDE events based on future population density datasets under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Using the 75th/90th and 25th/10th percentile of precipitation and temperature as threshold to define severe and moderate events, the results show that the East African region experienced multiple moderate and severe CHDE events during the last twenty years. Based on a weighted multi-model ensemble, projections indicate that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the frequency of moderate CHDE will double, and severe CHDE will be 1.6 times that of baseline (i.e., an increase of 60%). Strong evidence of an upward trajectory is noted after 2080 for both moderate and severe CHDE. Southern parts of Tanzania and northeastern Kenya are likely to be the most affected, with all models agreeing (signal-to-noise ratio, SNR > 1), indicating a likely higher magnitude of change during the mid- and far-future. Consequentially, population exposure to these impacts is projected to increase by up to 60% for moderate and severe CHDEs in parts of southern Tanzania. Attribution analysis highlights that climate change is the primary driver of CHDE exposure under the two emission pathways. The current study underscores the urgent need to reduce CO₂ emissions to prevent exceeding global warming thresholds and to develop regional adaptation measures.

Contextualizing current increases in Northern Hemisphere temperatures is precluded by the short instrumental record of the past ca. 120 years and the dearth of temperature-sensitive proxy records, particularly at lower latitudes south of <50 °N. We develop a network of 29 blue intensity chronologies derived from tree rings of Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière and Picea rubens Sarg. trees distributed across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast USA (MANE)—a region underrepresented by multi-centennial temperature records. We use this network to reconstruct mean March-September air temperatures back to 1461 CE based on a model that explains 62% of the instrumental temperature variance from 1901−1976 CE. Since 1998 CE, MANE summer temperatures are consistently the warmest within the context of the past 561 years exceeding the 1951−1980 mean of +1.3 °C. Cool summers across MANE were frequently volcanically forced, with significant (p<0.05) temperature departures associated with 80% of the largest tropical (n=13) and extratropical (n=15) eruptions since 1461 CE. Yet, we find that more of the identified cool events in the record were likely unforced by volcanism and either related to stochastic variability or atmospheric circulation via significant associations (p<0.05) to regional, coastal sea-surface temperatures, 500-hpa geopotential height, and 300-hpa meridional and zonal wind vectors. Expanding the MANE network to the west and south and combining it with existing temperature-sensitive proxies across North America is an important next step toward producing a gridded temperature reconstruction field for North America.