Pub Date : 2023-11-16DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03633-x
Ádám Stefkovics, Lili Zenovitz
Existing evidence suggests that climate change beliefs can be subject to how the issue is framed. Particularly, the choice between a “global warming” versus a “climate change” framing influenced survey responses in some previous experiments. Furthermore, since the issue of climate change has become strongly polarized politically, framing effects were found to be moderated by political identification. Nevertheless, most of these framing effects were observed in the USA and may not be generalized in other cultures. To contribute to this area of research, we embedded an experiment in nationally representative telephone surveys conducted in 30 European countries in August–September 2021. We manipulated the wording of four climate change-related questions (“global warming” vs. “climate change”) and assessed treatment effects both in the full sample and separately among leftist, rightist, green, and right-wing party voters. Our results regarding climate change existence belief replicated earlier findings since existence belief was significantly higher in the climate change group. We also found that the perceived negative impact was slightly lower when the issue was framed as “climate change.” In contrast, little evidence was found of people being more skeptical or less worried when asked about “global warming” compared to “climate change.” In general, skepticism was higher on the political right; however, leftists, rightists, green, and right-wing voters reacted similarly to the two frames in our European sample. We consider possible explanations for the null findings and argue that the use of “climate change” framing in communication strategies promoting climate action itself will do little to lower skepticism in Europe.
{"title":"Global warming vs. climate change frames: revisiting framing effects based on new experimental evidence collected in 30 European countries","authors":"Ádám Stefkovics, Lili Zenovitz","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03633-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03633-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Existing evidence suggests that climate change beliefs can be subject to how the issue is framed. Particularly, the choice between a “global warming” versus a “climate change” framing influenced survey responses in some previous experiments. Furthermore, since the issue of climate change has become strongly polarized politically, framing effects were found to be moderated by political identification. Nevertheless, most of these framing effects were observed in the USA and may not be generalized in other cultures. To contribute to this area of research, we embedded an experiment in nationally representative telephone surveys conducted in 30 European countries in August–September 2021. We manipulated the wording of four climate change-related questions (“global warming” vs. “climate change”) and assessed treatment effects both in the full sample and separately among leftist, rightist, green, and right-wing party voters. Our results regarding climate change existence belief replicated earlier findings since existence belief was significantly higher in the climate change group. We also found that the perceived negative impact was slightly lower when the issue was framed as “climate change.” In contrast, little evidence was found of people being more skeptical or less worried when asked about “global warming” compared to “climate change.” In general, skepticism was higher on the political right; however, leftists, rightists, green, and right-wing voters reacted similarly to the two frames in our European sample. We consider possible explanations for the null findings and argue that the use of “climate change” framing in communication strategies promoting climate action itself will do little to lower skepticism in Europe.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"357 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138519692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-01DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03630-0
Divya Chaudhry, Indranil Mukhopadhyay
{"title":"Climate change and human health: estimating district-level health vulnerabilities in the Indian context","authors":"Divya Chaudhry, Indranil Mukhopadhyay","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03630-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03630-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135455955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-01DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03637-7
Paul A. Hanle
{"title":"Review of Responding to the Climate Threat, by Gary Yohe, Henry Jacoby, Richard Richels, and Benjamin Santer (Springer, 2023) for Climatic Change","authors":"Paul A. Hanle","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03637-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03637-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"91 1","pages":"1-4"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139302104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-01DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03621-1
Gordon Aitken, Lindsay Beevers, Simon Parry, Katie Facer-Childs
Abstract Floods are the largest natural disaster currently facing the UK, whilst the incidents of droughts have increased in recent years. Floods and droughts can have devastating consequences on society, resulting in significant financial damage to the economy. Climate models suggest that precipitation and temperature changes will exacerbate future hydrological extremes (i.e., floods and droughts). Such events are likely to become more frequent and intense in the future; thus to develop adaptation plans climate model projections feed hydrological models to provide future water resource projections. ‘eFLaG’ is one set of future river flow projections produced for the UK driven by UKCP18 climate projections from the UK Met Office. The UKCP18-derived eFLaG dataset provides state-of-the-art projections for a single GCM driven by RCP 8.5 across the entire UK. A QE-ANOVA approach has been used to partition contributing sources of uncertainty for two flow quantiles (Q5 high flows and Q95 low flows), at near and far future time scales, for each of the 186 GB catchments in the eFLaG dataset. Results suggest a larger hydrological model uncertainty associated with low flows and greater regional climate model uncertainty for high flows which remains stationary between flow indicators. Total uncertainty increases from near to far future and highly uncertain catchments have been identified with a high concentration in South-East England.
{"title":"Partitioning model uncertainty in multi-model ensemble river flow projections","authors":"Gordon Aitken, Lindsay Beevers, Simon Parry, Katie Facer-Childs","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03621-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03621-1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Floods are the largest natural disaster currently facing the UK, whilst the incidents of droughts have increased in recent years. Floods and droughts can have devastating consequences on society, resulting in significant financial damage to the economy. Climate models suggest that precipitation and temperature changes will exacerbate future hydrological extremes (i.e., floods and droughts). Such events are likely to become more frequent and intense in the future; thus to develop adaptation plans climate model projections feed hydrological models to provide future water resource projections. ‘eFLaG’ is one set of future river flow projections produced for the UK driven by UKCP18 climate projections from the UK Met Office. The UKCP18-derived eFLaG dataset provides state-of-the-art projections for a single GCM driven by RCP 8.5 across the entire UK. A QE-ANOVA approach has been used to partition contributing sources of uncertainty for two flow quantiles (Q5 high flows and Q95 low flows), at near and far future time scales, for each of the 186 GB catchments in the eFLaG dataset. Results suggest a larger hydrological model uncertainty associated with low flows and greater regional climate model uncertainty for high flows which remains stationary between flow indicators. Total uncertainty increases from near to far future and highly uncertain catchments have been identified with a high concentration in South-East England.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135371886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-01DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03622-0
Juan David González-Trujillo, Rosa M. Román-Cuesta, Aarón Israel Muñiz-Castillo, Cibele H. Amaral, Miguel B. Araújo
Abstract Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon. As such, no single metric can capture all trajectories of change and associated impacts. While numerous metrics exist to measure climate change, they tend to focus on central tendencies and neglect the multidimensionality of extreme weather events (EWEs). EWEs differ in their frequency, duration, and intensity, and can be described for temperature, precipitation, and wind speed, while considering different thresholds defining “extremeness.” We review existing EWE metrics and outline a framework for classifying and interpreting them in light of their foreseeable impacts on biodiversity. Using an example drawn from the Caribbean and Central America, we show that metrics reflect unequal spatial patterns of exposure across the region. Based on available evidence, we discuss how such patterns relate to threats to biological populations, empirically demonstrating how ecologically informed metrics can help relate EWEs to biological processes such as mangrove recovery. Unveiling the complexity of EWE trajectories affecting biodiversity is only possible through mobilisation of a plethora of climate change metrics. The proposed framework represents a step forward over assessments using single dimensions or averages of highly variable time series.
{"title":"Multiple dimensions of extreme weather events and their impacts on biodiversity","authors":"Juan David González-Trujillo, Rosa M. Román-Cuesta, Aarón Israel Muñiz-Castillo, Cibele H. Amaral, Miguel B. Araújo","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03622-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03622-0","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon. As such, no single metric can capture all trajectories of change and associated impacts. While numerous metrics exist to measure climate change, they tend to focus on central tendencies and neglect the multidimensionality of extreme weather events (EWEs). EWEs differ in their frequency, duration, and intensity, and can be described for temperature, precipitation, and wind speed, while considering different thresholds defining “extremeness.” We review existing EWE metrics and outline a framework for classifying and interpreting them in light of their foreseeable impacts on biodiversity. Using an example drawn from the Caribbean and Central America, we show that metrics reflect unequal spatial patterns of exposure across the region. Based on available evidence, we discuss how such patterns relate to threats to biological populations, empirically demonstrating how ecologically informed metrics can help relate EWEs to biological processes such as mangrove recovery. Unveiling the complexity of EWE trajectories affecting biodiversity is only possible through mobilisation of a plethora of climate change metrics. The proposed framework represents a step forward over assessments using single dimensions or averages of highly variable time series.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"62 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135456089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-01DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03625-x
Van Thi Hong Le, Thong Anh Tran, Maria Fay Rola-Rubzen
Abstract Critical scholars on power relations and climate change adaptation have highlighted the lack of community participation as a consequence of unbalanced power operations. Evidence about how unequal power relations and subject formation constrain public participation, however, is under-studied. In this paper, we utilised the intersection between community participation and the subjectivities lens to examine how a hierarchical political structure systematically operates to influence community engagement in adaptation and how and why local communities are included or excluded from adaptation as a result of subject-making, using Vietnam as a case study. Using 66 semi-structured interviews and ten focus group discussions involving policymakers, practitioners, local authorities, and communities, we examined how the key respondents stereotyped local roles and capacity in agricultural adaptation activities. Applying content analysis, we found that the general population in Vietnam is often framed as lacking knowledge and capacity to respond to climate impacts. Reflected through a traditional government-led model in two agricultural adaptation projects, the study showed that subtle but pervasive subjectivities and subject-making processes constrain community participation by affecting perceptions and, subsequently, actions of key stakeholders, undermining local roles and capacity in undertaking adaptation. These perpetuate the power imbalance between local communities and government entities. The findings contribute to the prevailing scholarship of climate change adaptation that, under an authoritarian regime, local capacity is undermined not only by powerholders but also by community members as they consent to government decisions.
{"title":"How subjectivities and subject-making influence community participation in climate change adaptation: the case of Vietnam","authors":"Van Thi Hong Le, Thong Anh Tran, Maria Fay Rola-Rubzen","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03625-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03625-x","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Critical scholars on power relations and climate change adaptation have highlighted the lack of community participation as a consequence of unbalanced power operations. Evidence about how unequal power relations and subject formation constrain public participation, however, is under-studied. In this paper, we utilised the intersection between community participation and the subjectivities lens to examine how a hierarchical political structure systematically operates to influence community engagement in adaptation and how and why local communities are included or excluded from adaptation as a result of subject-making, using Vietnam as a case study. Using 66 semi-structured interviews and ten focus group discussions involving policymakers, practitioners, local authorities, and communities, we examined how the key respondents stereotyped local roles and capacity in agricultural adaptation activities. Applying content analysis, we found that the general population in Vietnam is often framed as lacking knowledge and capacity to respond to climate impacts. Reflected through a traditional government-led model in two agricultural adaptation projects, the study showed that subtle but pervasive subjectivities and subject-making processes constrain community participation by affecting perceptions and, subsequently, actions of key stakeholders, undermining local roles and capacity in undertaking adaptation. These perpetuate the power imbalance between local communities and government entities. The findings contribute to the prevailing scholarship of climate change adaptation that, under an authoritarian regime, local capacity is undermined not only by powerholders but also by community members as they consent to government decisions.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"42 15","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135615221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-01DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03624-y
Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Alvin Chandra, Karen E. McNamara
Abstract It is well-known that women, children, and other intersectional and marginalised social groups are disproportionately impacted by ‘non-economic wellbeing loss’ in the context of climatic changes. However, few empirical studies investigate its interrelation with violence against women and children (VAWC). We urgently need to widen our perceptions of what falls under the umbrella term ‘Non-Economic Loss (and Damage)’, NEL(D)s, for societies to appropriately be able to avert, minimise, and address losses and damages among vulnerable people. Through stories of loss and healing, we step into the realities of illustrating how women and children experience non-economic wellbeing loss within a climate-violence nexus in Bangladesh, Fiji, and Vanuatu. A storytelling and systems analysis approach guided the analysis of personal narratives gathered through a secondary data review and empirical field work. The research findings identified different pathways through which women and children’s mental health was compromised in the context of structural violence and climatic risks. In Bangladesh, the narratives described wellbeing erosion in the context of gendered (im)mobility; in Fiji, the findings captured women’s and children’s experiences of sexual violence, domestic abuse, exploitation, and trafficking in the context of natural hazards, while in Vanuatu, hardship, gendered dependence, and healing were narrated by women in their stories surrounding disaster recovery. This article comprehensively lays out the longer-term societal wellbeing consequences of climatic changes and gender-based violence. It also identifies research gaps in need of further attention and proposes policy recommendations as well as methodological and disaster health service solutions to address wellbeing loss in a climate changed future.
{"title":"Stories of loss and healing: connecting non-economic loss and damage, gender-based violence and wellbeing erosion in the Asia–Pacific region","authors":"Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Alvin Chandra, Karen E. McNamara","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03624-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03624-y","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract It is well-known that women, children, and other intersectional and marginalised social groups are disproportionately impacted by ‘non-economic wellbeing loss’ in the context of climatic changes. However, few empirical studies investigate its interrelation with violence against women and children (VAWC). We urgently need to widen our perceptions of what falls under the umbrella term ‘Non-Economic Loss (and Damage)’, NEL(D)s, for societies to appropriately be able to avert, minimise, and address losses and damages among vulnerable people. Through stories of loss and healing, we step into the realities of illustrating how women and children experience non-economic wellbeing loss within a climate-violence nexus in Bangladesh, Fiji, and Vanuatu. A storytelling and systems analysis approach guided the analysis of personal narratives gathered through a secondary data review and empirical field work. The research findings identified different pathways through which women and children’s mental health was compromised in the context of structural violence and climatic risks. In Bangladesh, the narratives described wellbeing erosion in the context of gendered (im)mobility; in Fiji, the findings captured women’s and children’s experiences of sexual violence, domestic abuse, exploitation, and trafficking in the context of natural hazards, while in Vanuatu, hardship, gendered dependence, and healing were narrated by women in their stories surrounding disaster recovery. This article comprehensively lays out the longer-term societal wellbeing consequences of climatic changes and gender-based violence. It also identifies research gaps in need of further attention and proposes policy recommendations as well as methodological and disaster health service solutions to address wellbeing loss in a climate changed future.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"18 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135763403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-30DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03586-1
William J. Thompson, Varun Varma, Jonas Joerin, Solhanlle Bonilla-Duarte, Daniel P. Bebber, Wilma Blaser-Hart, Birgit Kopainsky, Leonhard Späth, Bianca Curcio, Johan Six, Pius Krütli
Abstract Extreme weather events have severe impacts on food systems, especially for smallholders in global food value chains (GFVCs). There is an urgent need to understand (a) how climate shocks manifest in food systems, and (b) what strategies can enhance food system resilience. Integrating satellite, household and trade data, we investigate the cascading impacts after two consecutive hurricanes on smallholder banana farmers in Dominican Republic, and determinants of their recovery. We found that farmers experienced an ‘all-or-nothing’ pattern of damage, where 75% of flooded farmers lost > 90% of production. Recovery of regional production indicators took ca. 450 days. However, farm-level recovery times were highly variable, with both topographic and human capital factors determining recovery. Utilising this case study, we show that engaging in a GFVC impeded recovery via ‘double exposure’ of production loss and losing market access. Our results suggest that strategies to enhance resilience, with a particular focus on recovery, in GFVCs should promote trader loyalty, facilitate basin-scale collaboration and expand risk-targeted training.
{"title":"Smallholder farmer resilience to extreme weather events in a global food value chain","authors":"William J. Thompson, Varun Varma, Jonas Joerin, Solhanlle Bonilla-Duarte, Daniel P. Bebber, Wilma Blaser-Hart, Birgit Kopainsky, Leonhard Späth, Bianca Curcio, Johan Six, Pius Krütli","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03586-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03586-1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Extreme weather events have severe impacts on food systems, especially for smallholders in global food value chains (GFVCs). There is an urgent need to understand (a) how climate shocks manifest in food systems, and (b) what strategies can enhance food system resilience. Integrating satellite, household and trade data, we investigate the cascading impacts after two consecutive hurricanes on smallholder banana farmers in Dominican Republic, and determinants of their recovery. We found that farmers experienced an ‘all-or-nothing’ pattern of damage, where 75% of flooded farmers lost > 90% of production. Recovery of regional production indicators took ca. 450 days. However, farm-level recovery times were highly variable, with both topographic and human capital factors determining recovery. Utilising this case study, we show that engaging in a GFVC impeded recovery via ‘double exposure’ of production loss and losing market access. Our results suggest that strategies to enhance resilience, with a particular focus on recovery, in GFVCs should promote trader loyalty, facilitate basin-scale collaboration and expand risk-targeted training.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"50 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136104765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-28DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03627-9
Muhammad Awais Baloch, None Danish, Zubeyde Senturk Ulucak
{"title":"Understanding the role of green finance and renewable energy consumption for sustainable development in ACI economies","authors":"Muhammad Awais Baloch, None Danish, Zubeyde Senturk Ulucak","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03627-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03627-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"290 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136160671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-27DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03629-7
Qurat-ul-Ain Ahmad, Eddy Moors, Hester Biemans, Nuzba Shaheen, Ilyas Masih, Muhammad Zia ur Rahman Hashmi
Abstract This study investigated the shifts in irrigation water demand and supply of the major staple and water-intensive crops (wheat and rice) in the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins of South Asia under the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development during the period 1981–2100. It explores irrigation water usage during climate-sensitive crop growth phases (i.e. vegetative and reproductive which required ~ 60% of the total seasonal (sowing to harvest) water demand), which is supposed to be crucial for long-term integrated crop water management. A hydrology vegetation model Lund Potsdam Jena Managed Land is forced with an ensemble of eight downscaled (5 arc-min) global climate model’s using the RCP (Representative concentration pathways) -SSP (Shared socio-economic pathways) framework, i.e. RCP4.5-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. To investigate phase-specific crop water projections, trend analysis is performed. It shows a significant ( p <0.001) increase in irrigation water demand during the vegetative phase of wheat (6 mm) and reproductive phase of rice (26 mm) and a decrease during the reproductive phase of wheat (13 mm) and vegetative phase of rice (11 mm) in selected study sites. The large decrease in projected irrigation demand for wheat can be explained by a shortening of the growing season length as a result of rising temperatures and increased precipitation. Whereas, an increase in irrigation demand for rice is a combined effect of higher temperatures and less precipitation during the reproductive phase in the region. At the same time, irrigation supply by surface water and groundwater is likely to change in future due to warmer and drier growing periods, causing a significant increase in groundwater irrigation, mainly for rice. Our major research findings show the importance of crop water assessments during the sensitive crop growth phases of wheat and rice which vary in space and time. Including crop phase-specific, climate impact assessments of regional and global projection will help improve the region’s existing crop-water management strategies and adaptation practices.
{"title":"Climate-induced shifts in irrigation water demand and supply during sensitive crop growth phases in South Asia","authors":"Qurat-ul-Ain Ahmad, Eddy Moors, Hester Biemans, Nuzba Shaheen, Ilyas Masih, Muhammad Zia ur Rahman Hashmi","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03629-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03629-7","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study investigated the shifts in irrigation water demand and supply of the major staple and water-intensive crops (wheat and rice) in the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins of South Asia under the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development during the period 1981–2100. It explores irrigation water usage during climate-sensitive crop growth phases (i.e. vegetative and reproductive which required ~ 60% of the total seasonal (sowing to harvest) water demand), which is supposed to be crucial for long-term integrated crop water management. A hydrology vegetation model Lund Potsdam Jena Managed Land is forced with an ensemble of eight downscaled (5 arc-min) global climate model’s using the RCP (Representative concentration pathways) -SSP (Shared socio-economic pathways) framework, i.e. RCP4.5-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. To investigate phase-specific crop water projections, trend analysis is performed. It shows a significant ( p <0.001) increase in irrigation water demand during the vegetative phase of wheat (6 mm) and reproductive phase of rice (26 mm) and a decrease during the reproductive phase of wheat (13 mm) and vegetative phase of rice (11 mm) in selected study sites. The large decrease in projected irrigation demand for wheat can be explained by a shortening of the growing season length as a result of rising temperatures and increased precipitation. Whereas, an increase in irrigation demand for rice is a combined effect of higher temperatures and less precipitation during the reproductive phase in the region. At the same time, irrigation supply by surface water and groundwater is likely to change in future due to warmer and drier growing periods, causing a significant increase in groundwater irrigation, mainly for rice. Our major research findings show the importance of crop water assessments during the sensitive crop growth phases of wheat and rice which vary in space and time. Including crop phase-specific, climate impact assessments of regional and global projection will help improve the region’s existing crop-water management strategies and adaptation practices.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"278 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136262211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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