Climatic Change最新文献

The Gulf of Eilat (Gulf of Aqaba) is a semi-enclosed basin situated at the northern end of the Red Sea, renowned for its exceptional marine ecosystem. To evaluate the response of the Gulf to climate variations, we analyzed various factors including temperature down to 700 m, surface air temperature, and heat fluxes. We find that the sea temperature is rising at all depths despite inconclusive trends in local atmospheric variables, including the surface air temperature. The Gulf’s sea surface temperature (SST) warms at a rate of a few hundredths of a degree Celsius per year, which is comparable to the warming of the global SST and the Mediterranean Sea. The increase in sea warming is linked to fewer winter deep mixing events that used to occur more frequently in the past. Based on the analysis of the ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes, we conclude that the lateral advection of heat from the southern part of the Gulf likely leads to an increase in water temperature in the northern part of the Gulf. Our findings suggest that local ocean warming is not necessarily associated with local processes, but rather with the warming of other remote locations.

We present a framework for developing storylines of UK sea level rise to aid risk communication and coastal adaptation planning. Our approach builds on the UK national climate projections (UKCP18) and maintains the same physically consistent methods that preserve component correlations and traceability between global mean sea level (GMSL) and local relative sea level (RSL). Five example storylines are presented that represent singular trajectories of future sea level rise drawn from the underlying large Monte Carlo simulations. The first three storylines span the total range of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) likely range GMSL projections across the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The final two storylines are based upon recent high-end storylines of GMSL presented in AR6 and the recent literature. Our results suggest that even the most optimistic sea level rise outcomes for the UK will require adaptation of up to 1 m of sea level rise for large sections of coastline by 2300. For the storyline most consistent with current international greenhouse gas emissions pledges and a moderate sea level rise response, UK capital cities will experience between about 1 and 2 m of sea level rise by 2300, with continued rise beyond 2300. The storyline based on the upper end of the AR6 likely range sea level projections yields much larger values for UK capital cities that range between about 3 and 4 m at 2300. The two high-end scenarios, which are based on a recent study that showed accelerated sea level rise associated with ice sheet instability feedbacks, lead to sea level rise for UK capital cities at 2300 that range between about 8 m and 17 m. These magnitudes of rise would pose enormous challenges for UK coastal communities and are likely to be beyond the limits of adaptation at some locations.

The Arctic is one of the key regions in relation to global climate change, experiencing radical transformations in environmental governance as well as challenges in terms of its ecological protection. The region is witnessing a number of irreversible climatic shifts, such as melting permafrost, rising sea levels, contamination of the Global Ocean, and changes in the lives of indigenous people. The Arctic is a global hot spot in climate change where international cooperation (scientific, environmental, diplomatic, etc.) should be a priority to overcome existing ecological challenges. This article provides detailed analysis of these issues from cross-disciplinary perspectives, bringing insights from economics, history, anthropology, international relations, and political science from the perspective of literature on environmental regionalism. The article analyzes a selection of heterogeneous actors, many of whom have contradictory rules, norms, and priorities. Analysis of the Arctic through the lens of regional environmental governance aspires to contribute to understanding of the complexity of existing challenges and their potential solutions. This article offers an analysis of the major findings in this topical collection. It contributes to the development of cross-disciplinary approach to the studies of the Artic and outlines a research agenda.

Climate change is expected to impact cacao cultivation in Ecuador, the fifth largest cacao producing country in the world and largest exporter of fine flavour cacao. The objective of this study was to evaluate the future impact of climate change on the suitable distribution of cultivated and wild cacao and identify areas where climate change tolerant genotypes may occur in Ecuador. Using 26,152 presence points for cultivated cacao and 95 presence points for wild cacao, we modelled the present suitability distribution of cultivated and wild cacao and performed future climate projections under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). For both cultivated and wild cacao, we constructed six different ensemble models employing different filtering methods for presence points, we projected each ensemble model to future climatic conditions, and we then built the final maps of present distribution and future projections based on the majority-vote criterion. Our future projections predict a 8–16% contraction and 19–21% expansion of the currently suitable area of cultivated cacao, while wild cacao is expected to maintain most of its suitable area and experience a further 7–12% expansion in the future. Ecogeographical zones are predicted to change in 23-33% of the combined distributions of cultivated and wild cacao. We identified the areas in Ecuador where populations of climate change tolerant genotypes are expected to occur. Interventions to promote adaptation to climate change will be required in cacao cultivation areas that are expected to be impacted by climate change in Ecuador, including the use of tolerant genotypes.

The urgent need for climate action and sustainable development has elevated the importance of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in climate finance. While PPPs are crucial for mobilizing resources for climate finance, the factors influencing the willingness of different stakeholders to participate in these partnerships are not well understood. This study employs a multifaceted analytical approach, integrating theoretical insights from Stakeholder Theory, Transaction Cost Economics, and Agency Theory. We conduct a Tobit regression analysis to investigate the determinants of willingness to participate in climate finance PPPs among three key stakeholder groups: Governors, Firms, and the Public. Using survey data collected from over 1600 participants in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, this research examines the influence of perceived benefits, perceptions of PPPs, the importance of climate finance, trust and transparency, and multilateral support on stakeholders’ willingness to participate in PPPs for climate finance. The analysis reveals that the perceived benefits of PPPs and trust and transparency universally enhance the willingness to participate across all groups of stakeholders. However, the impact of positive perceptions of PPPs varies, playing a crucial role for firms and the public but not for governors. The study also highlights the significance of understanding and emphasizing the importance of climate finance, particularly when combined with trust and transparency, in encouraging stakeholder participation. Furthermore, by revealing the varied impacts of determinants across stakeholder groups, this research points to the necessity of adopting differentiated approaches to maximize participation in PPPs for climate finance, thereby supporting sustainable development and climate action goals.

The increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will place humans in climates that are unprecedented in the evolution of the species. I use the ecological definition of the human niche in climate space, and combine this with a new constellation of methods from extreme value statistics to study human occupation near the boundaries of that niche. I find that the temperature distribution has a thin tail whereas the tail of precipitation is thick. This thick tail reflects that humans are used to a wide range of rainfall regimes, so future precipitation changes, although leading to unprecedented rainfall, are less likely to pose a major challenge. An increase in temperature, on the other hand, will put hundreds of millions of people in heat that is not just unprecedented and but also hard to imagine from extrapolating current temperatures. These findings are qualitatively similar but an order of magnitude smaller than previous studies.

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compare the two strategies in the context of weather/climate-associated economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses its non-agriculture-led antagonist in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios. This underscores that, despite increasing exposure of the entire economy to weather/climate uncertainty, agriculture-led development remains the optimal strategy for Malawi to reduce poverty and undernourishment. The study also endorses the broader use of SD analysis in policy planning studies, promoting its potential to integrate risk and uncertainty into policymaking.

Smallholder farmers in Ghana’s Savannah ecological zone face multiple climate stressors. Government and non-governmental organizations have introduced educative demonstrations on sustainable agriculture practices to help them cope. However, the effectiveness of these strategies in enhancing smallholder farmers’ climate resilience needs examination. Our study, guided by the Resilience Theory (RT), aimed to explore factors that shape smallholder farmers’ climate resilience and how their participation in Farmer Field Schools (FFSs) and Climate Action Plans (CAPs) affect their resilience to climate change. We analyzed data from a cross-sectional survey of 517 smallholder farmers in the Upper West region of Ghana using ordered logistic regression. Our findings showed that smallholder farmers’ “good” climate change resilience was associated with participation in Farmer Field Schools (OR: 7.809, p < 0.001) and active involvement in Climate Action Plans (OR: 1.976, p < 0.01). In addition, household food security (OR: 4.412, p < 0.001), access to credit (OR: 1.761, p < 0.01), and larger household sizes (OR: 2.255, p < 0.01) were associated with “good” climate resilience. However, larger land size (OR: 0.988, p < 0.01) and attainment of primary education (OR: 0.497, p < 0.01) showed a lesser likelihood of having “good” climate resilience. The study highlights the importance of practical learning platforms and participatory planning in improving climate resilience among smallholder farmers. Policies and programs should support these initiatives, improve resource accessibility, and tailor educational approaches. Our recommendations include expanding FFSs, integrating CAPs with agricultural services, developing scalable, adaptable, and sustainable agricultural practices, enhancing resource accessibility, and implementing monitoring and evaluation systems for these initiatives.

The growing understanding of how and why the climate is changing has led to mounting calls on climate scientists to take on more responsibility in the context of climate science. While an increasing responsibilisation takes place in the academic literature, asking scientists to “do more”, there is limited engagement with the responsibilities that scientists already assume in practice. Drawing on novel empirical insights from 77 semi-structured interviews with participants of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), I take the increasing ‘peer-to-peer responsibilisation’ as a point of departure to contextualise such calls, asking what scientists themselves already feel and assume responsibility for at both the personal and professional level. I find that climate experts participating in the IPCC not only assume increasing responsibility across different stages of the IPCC process but also beyond. As my data analysis demonstrates, IPCC participants increasingly feel and take on responsibility not only for producing and assessing climate science but also for communicating and/or enacting it (PACE). The contribution of the article is threefold. Firstly, it makes sense of the mounting peer-to-peer responsibilisation by surfacing and contextualising how, why and with what consequences particular climate knowledge holders already assume responsibility for climate science at four key moments (PACE). Secondly, conceiving of the IPCC as a community of practice, the article provides novel insights into the work of IPCC participants and their individual experiences with the institution and its processes. Thirdly, the article adds evidence to a growing body of literature on practices of responsibility and climate emotions by focussing on participants' individual affective experiences. As the 7th Assessment Cycle gathers pace, I propose some measures the IPCC may undertake to support participants in assuming their responsibilities in the context of climate science.

Surface wind speed (SWS) over China exhibited a decreasing trend before the mid-1990s, referred to as SWS stilling, and an increasing trend thereafter. Northern China is susceptible to dust incidents in spring because of gales. In this study, we investigate the characteristics and causes of spring gale events over northern China. We find that gale events had a decreasing trend during both the SWS stilling and recovery period, reaching -0.68 day/year during the period 1973-2020. Four types of weather systems are associated with gale events, and analysis of all four weather systems indicates that the deep trough in the east of Eurasia is prone to cause gale events. Changes in atmospheric circulation contributed in part to the decrease of gale events, while thermodynamic factors arising from human emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and radiation changes caused by land use change, dominated the decreasing trend of gale events during the last 5 decades.