Climatic Change最新文献

Climate change is expected to impact cacao cultivation in Ecuador, the fifth largest cacao producing country in the world and largest exporter of fine flavour cacao. The objective of this study was to evaluate the future impact of climate change on the suitable distribution of cultivated and wild cacao and identify areas where climate change tolerant genotypes may occur in Ecuador. Using 26,152 presence points for cultivated cacao and 95 presence points for wild cacao, we modelled the present suitability distribution of cultivated and wild cacao and performed future climate projections under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). For both cultivated and wild cacao, we constructed six different ensemble models employing different filtering methods for presence points, we projected each ensemble model to future climatic conditions, and we then built the final maps of present distribution and future projections based on the majority-vote criterion. Our future projections predict a 8–16% contraction and 19–21% expansion of the currently suitable area of cultivated cacao, while wild cacao is expected to maintain most of its suitable area and experience a further 7–12% expansion in the future. Ecogeographical zones are predicted to change in 23-33% of the combined distributions of cultivated and wild cacao. We identified the areas in Ecuador where populations of climate change tolerant genotypes are expected to occur. Interventions to promote adaptation to climate change will be required in cacao cultivation areas that are expected to be impacted by climate change in Ecuador, including the use of tolerant genotypes.

The urgent need for climate action and sustainable development has elevated the importance of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in climate finance. While PPPs are crucial for mobilizing resources for climate finance, the factors influencing the willingness of different stakeholders to participate in these partnerships are not well understood. This study employs a multifaceted analytical approach, integrating theoretical insights from Stakeholder Theory, Transaction Cost Economics, and Agency Theory. We conduct a Tobit regression analysis to investigate the determinants of willingness to participate in climate finance PPPs among three key stakeholder groups: Governors, Firms, and the Public. Using survey data collected from over 1600 participants in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, this research examines the influence of perceived benefits, perceptions of PPPs, the importance of climate finance, trust and transparency, and multilateral support on stakeholders’ willingness to participate in PPPs for climate finance. The analysis reveals that the perceived benefits of PPPs and trust and transparency universally enhance the willingness to participate across all groups of stakeholders. However, the impact of positive perceptions of PPPs varies, playing a crucial role for firms and the public but not for governors. The study also highlights the significance of understanding and emphasizing the importance of climate finance, particularly when combined with trust and transparency, in encouraging stakeholder participation. Furthermore, by revealing the varied impacts of determinants across stakeholder groups, this research points to the necessity of adopting differentiated approaches to maximize participation in PPPs for climate finance, thereby supporting sustainable development and climate action goals.

The increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will place humans in climates that are unprecedented in the evolution of the species. I use the ecological definition of the human niche in climate space, and combine this with a new constellation of methods from extreme value statistics to study human occupation near the boundaries of that niche. I find that the temperature distribution has a thin tail whereas the tail of precipitation is thick. This thick tail reflects that humans are used to a wide range of rainfall regimes, so future precipitation changes, although leading to unprecedented rainfall, are less likely to pose a major challenge. An increase in temperature, on the other hand, will put hundreds of millions of people in heat that is not just unprecedented and but also hard to imagine from extrapolating current temperatures. These findings are qualitatively similar but an order of magnitude smaller than previous studies.