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Attributing historical streamflow changes in the Jhelum River basin to climate change 气候变化对Jhelum河流域历史流量变化的影响
2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03628-8
Mustafa Javed, Iulii Didovets, Jürgen Böhner, Shabeh ul Hasson
Abstract Amid a heated debate on what are possible and what are plausible climate futures, ascertaining evident changes that are attributable to historical climate change can provide a clear understanding of how warmer climates will shape our future habitability. Hence, we detect changes in the streamflow simulated using three different datasets for the historical period (1901–2019) and analyze whether these changes can be attributed to observed climate change. For this, we first calibrate and validate the Soil and Water Integrated Model and then force it with factual (observed) and counterfactual (baseline) climates presented in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3a protocol. We assessed the differences in simulated streamflow driven by the factual and counterfactual climates by comparing their trend changes ascertained using the Modified Mann–Kendall test on monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales. In contrast to no trend for counterfactual climate, our results suggest that mean annual streamflow under factual climate features statistically significant decreasing trends, which are − 5.6, − 3.9, and − 1.9 m 3 s −1 for the 20CRv3-w5e5, 20CRv3, and GSWP3-w5e5 datasets, respectively. Such trends, which are more pronounced after the 1960s, for summer, and for high flows can be attributed to the weakening of the monsoonal precipitation regime in the factual climate. Further, discharge volumes in the recent factual climate dropped compared to the early twentieth-century climate, especially prominently during summer and mainly for high flows whereas earlier shifts found in the center of volume timings are due to early shifts in the nival regime. These findings clearly suggest a critical role of monsoonal precipitation in disrupting the hydrological regime of the Jhelum River basin in the future.
在关于什么是可能的和什么是合理的气候未来的激烈辩论中,确定可归因于历史气候变化的明显变化可以让我们清楚地了解气候变暖将如何影响我们未来的宜居性。因此,我们检测了使用三个不同数据集模拟的历史时期(1901-2019)的流量变化,并分析这些变化是否可归因于观测到的气候变化。为此,我们首先校准和验证土壤和水综合模型,然后使用部门间影响模型相互比较项目第3a阶段协议中提供的事实(观测)和反事实(基线)气候对其进行强制。通过比较修正Mann-Kendall检验在月、季和年时间尺度上确定的趋势变化,我们评估了事实气候和反事实气候驱动的模拟河流流量的差异。与非事实气候条件下的无趋势相反,事实气候条件下的年平均流量在统计上呈现显著的减少趋势,20CRv3-w5e5、20CRv3和GSWP3-w5e5数据集的年平均流量分别为- 5.6、- 3.9和- 1.9 m³s−1。在20世纪60年代以后,夏季和高流量的这种趋势更为明显,这可归因于实际气候中季风降水制度的减弱。此外,与20世纪初的气候相比,最近实际气候下的流量下降,特别是在夏季,主要是高流量,而在容量时间中心发现的早期变化是由于天气状况的早期变化。这些发现清楚地表明,季风降水在未来破坏Jhelum河流域的水文状况方面发挥着关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Detection and attribution of changes in streamflow and snowpack in Arctic river basins 北极河流流域流量和积雪变化的探测与归因
2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-10-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03626-w
Olga Nasonova, Yeugeniy Gusev, Evgeny Kovalev
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引用次数: 0
Asymmetric business cycle changes in US carbon emissions and oil market shocks 美国碳排放和石油市场冲击的不对称商业周期变化
2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-10-24 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03620-2
Xueting Jiang, David I. Stern
Abstract Previous research shows that, in the USA, the elasticity of carbon emissions with respect to GDP is greater when GDP declines than when GDP increases. Using monthly US data, we examine each individual recession since 1973. We find asymmetric changes in carbon emissions in the 1973–1975, 1980, 1990–1991, and 2020 recessions but not in the 1981–1982, 2001, or 2008–2009 recessions. The former four recessions are associated with negative oil market shocks. In the first three, there was a supply shock and in 2020, a demand shock. Changes in oil consumption that are not explained by changes in GDP explain these asymmetries. Furthermore, the asymmetries are due to emissions in the transport and industrial sectors, which are the main consumers of oil. We conclude that emissions behaved similarly in 2020 to the way they did in recessions associated with oil supply shocks, but, actually, this pattern is not inherent to the business cycle itself.
以往的研究表明,在美国,当GDP下降时,碳排放相对于GDP的弹性大于GDP增长时。我们利用美国的月度数据,研究了1973年以来的每一次衰退。我们发现1973-1975年、1980年、1990-1991年和2020年经济衰退期间碳排放的变化是不对称的,而1981-1982年、2001年和2008-2009年经济衰退期间碳排放的变化是不对称的。前四次经济衰退都与石油市场的负面冲击有关。前三年出现了供应冲击,2020年出现了需求冲击。石油消费的变化不能用GDP的变化来解释这些不对称。此外,这种不对称是由于运输和工业部门的排放造成的,这些部门是石油的主要消费者。我们得出的结论是,2020年的排放表现与石油供应冲击引发的衰退相似,但实际上,这种模式并非商业周期本身所固有的。
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引用次数: 1
Cross-border impacts of climate change affect the energy transition: Insights from the Finnish energy sector 气候变化的跨境影响影响能源转型:来自芬兰能源部门的见解
2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03619-9
Fanny Groundstroem
Abstract The world is currently in the midst of an energy transition, in which renewable and low-carbon energy is replacing the use of fossil fuels. Along the way, however, planning for and adapting to impacts of climate change is urgently needed, as these are projected to intensify in the future, despite ambitious mitigation efforts. Since the low-carbon energy transition is likely to involve many international interdependencies and connections between countries and regions, assessments of cross-border impacts of climate change, i.e., consequences of climate change that occur remotely from the location of their initial impact, are of utmost importance to ensure the decarbonisation of society is safe and sustainable. This paper utilises expert interviews and a general morphological analysis with the shared socioeconomic pathways to situate national decarbonisation efforts within a global context and identify cross-border impacts of climate change that may affect the energy transition, using the Finnish energy sector as a case study. Interestingly, many of the global development trends that were found to have a boosting effect on the Finnish energy transition, also increased the risk from cross-border climate change impacts, stressing the importance of rigorous adaptation planning. The findings affirm the need for studying national energy transitions from a global perspective and highlight the tendency of climate change impacts to be transmitted across borders via complex pathways. The study offers valuable insights into the importance of cross-border impacts for adaptation planning pertinent to any country or region currently engaged, or planning to engage, in the global low-carbon transition.
当前世界正处于能源转型时期,可再生能源和低碳能源正在取代化石燃料的使用。然而,在此过程中,迫切需要规划和适应气候变化的影响,因为尽管做出了雄心勃勃的缓解努力,但预计未来这些影响将加剧。由于低碳能源转型可能涉及许多国家和地区之间的国际相互依赖和联系,因此评估气候变化的跨境影响,即气候变化的后果发生在远离其最初影响地点的地方,对于确保社会脱碳是安全和可持续的至关重要。本文利用专家访谈和具有共享社会经济途径的一般形态分析,将国家脱碳工作置于全球背景下,并确定可能影响能源转型的气候变化的跨境影响,并使用芬兰能源部门作为案例研究。有趣的是,许多被发现对芬兰能源转型有促进作用的全球发展趋势,也增加了跨境气候变化影响的风险,强调了严格的适应规划的重要性。研究结果肯定了从全球角度研究国家能源转型的必要性,并强调了气候变化影响通过复杂途径跨境传播的趋势。该研究为跨境影响对适应规划的重要性提供了有价值的见解,这与目前或计划参与全球低碳转型的任何国家或地区有关。
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引用次数: 0
What climate? The different meaning of climate indicators in violent conflict studies 什么气候?气候指标在暴力冲突研究中的不同意义
2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03617-x
Ruben Dahm, Karen Meijer, Ernst Kuneman, Louise van Schaik
Abstract This paper explores the operationalization of climate-related indicators in violent conflict research. The climate-conflict narrative gained traction in recent decades and climate change is often referred to as a ‘threat multiplier’ by both policy makers and scholars. Yet, the relationships between climate-related phenomena and violent conflict are complex and context-specific. However, limited attention has been given to the climatic indicators applied in climate-conflict research. This paper addresses that gap by analyzing 32 studies published from 2004 to 2020 on the operationalization of climatic indicators and their relationship with violent conflict. It first categorizes climate indicators operationalization into five clusters: natural disasters, basic climate variability, advanced climate variability, freshwater availability, and the ENSO. The study evaluates the climate indicators for each cluster and shows that at an aggregate level these clusters examine 68 different climate representations. When paired with their respective conflict types, it finds a total of 113 climate-conflict combinations. Most operationalizations represent various forms of climate-related phenomena and variability rather than climate change. Some indicators are advancements over time, for example moving from changes in average rainfall to standardized precipitation indices. However, other indicators refer to various natural processes, making it challenging to determine whether climatic variability impacts conflict. The paper then demonstrates a discrepancy between the pathways through which climate may affect violent conflict and the representation of these pathways in the selected climate indicators. It discusses how the selection and operationalization of climate indicators requires careful consideration, and the phenomena researched should be well-specified in research findings.
本文探讨了气候相关指标在暴力冲突研究中的可操作性。近几十年来,气候冲突的说法越来越受关注,气候变化经常被政策制定者和学者称为“威胁倍增器”。然而,与气候有关的现象与暴力冲突之间的关系是复杂的,并因具体情况而异。然而,气候指标在气候冲突研究中的应用受到的关注有限。本文通过分析2004年至2020年发表的32项关于气候指标运作及其与暴力冲突关系的研究,解决了这一差距。首先,将气候指标的运行分为五类:自然灾害、基本气候变率、高级气候变率、淡水可利用性和ENSO。该研究评估了每个集群的气候指标,并表明在总体水平上,这些集群检查了68种不同的气候表征。当与它们各自的冲突类型配对时,它发现总共有113种气候冲突组合。大多数业务化代表各种形式的气候相关现象和变率,而不是气候变化。有些指标是随着时间的推移而进步的,例如从平均降雨量的变化转向标准化降水指数。然而,其他指标涉及各种自然过程,因此很难确定气候变率是否会影响冲突。然后,本文论证了气候可能影响暴力冲突的途径与所选气候指标中这些途径的表现之间的差异。讨论了气候指标的选择和实施需要慎重考虑,研究结果中应详细说明所研究的现象。
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引用次数: 0
How many people will live in poverty because of climate change? A macro-level projection analysis to 2070 有多少人会因为气候变化而生活在贫困之中?对2070年的宏观预测分析
2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03611-3
Jonathan D. Moyer, Audrey Pirzadeh, Mohammod Irfan, José Solórzano, Barbara Stone, Yutang Xiong, Taylor Hanna, Barry B. Hughes
Abstract Fossil fuel-based economic development both causes climate change and contributes to poverty alleviation, creating tensions across societal efforts to maintain growth, limit climate damage, and improve human development. While many studies explore key aspects of this dilemma, few direct attention to the pathways from climate change through socioeconomic development to the future of poverty. We build on projections of global temperature change (representative concentration pathways) and country-specific economic development (economic growth and income distribution across the shared socioeconomic pathways) to model how climate change may affect future poverty with the International Futures (IFs) model, projecting poverty across income thresholds for 175 countries through 2070. Central tendency scenarios with climate effects compared with scenarios that do not model climate change show that climate change-attributable extreme poverty will grow to 25 million people by 2030 (range: 18 to 30), 40 million by 2050 (range: 9 to 78), and 32 million by 2070 (range: 4 to 130) though overall levels of global poverty decline. If climatic tipping points are passed, the climate-attributable extreme poverty grows to 57 million people by 2030 (range: 40–72), 78 million by 2050 (range: 18–193), and 56 million by 2070 (range: 7–306). To mitigate baseline effects of climate change on extreme poverty, an improvement of global income inequality of 10% is required (range: 5–15%).
以化石燃料为基础的经济发展既导致了气候变化,也有助于减轻贫困,在维持增长、限制气候破坏和改善人类发展的社会努力中造成了紧张关系。虽然许多研究探讨了这一困境的关键方面,但很少有人直接关注气候变化通过社会经济发展到贫困未来的途径。我们基于对全球温度变化(代表性集中路径)和特定国家经济发展(跨共享社会经济路径的经济增长和收入分配)的预测,利用国际期货模型(IFs)模拟气候变化如何影响未来贫困,预测到2070年175个国家跨收入阈值的贫困。与不模拟气候变化的情景相比,有气候影响的集中趋势情景表明,尽管全球总体贫困水平下降,但到2030年,气候变化导致的极端贫困人口将增加到2500万人(范围:18至30),到2050年将增加到4000万人(范围:9至78),到2070年将增加到3200万人(范围:4至130)。如果超过气候临界点,到2030年,气候导致的极端贫困人口将增加到5700万人(范围:40-72),到2050年将增加到7800万人(范围:18-193),到2070年将增加到5600万人(范围:7-306)。为了减轻气候变化对极端贫困的基线影响,需要将全球收入不平等程度提高10%(范围:5-15%)。
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引用次数: 0
Projected changes in heat wave characteristics over India 印度热浪特征的预估变化
2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03618-w
Neethu C, K V Ramesh
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引用次数: 0
Climate cooperation with risky solar geoengineering 气候合作与危险的太阳能地球工程
2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03612-2
Todd L. Cherry, Stephan Kroll, David M. McEvoy
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引用次数: 0
Does land security matter in adapting to climate change? an empirical evidence from Benin 土地安全在适应气候变化中重要吗?来自贝宁的经验证据
2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03616-y
Gbêtondji Melaine Armel Nonvide
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引用次数: 0
SRM on the table: the role of geoengineering for the stability and effectiveness of climate coalitions SRM摆在桌面上:地球工程对气候联盟稳定性和有效性的作用
2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03604-2
Piergiuseppe Pezzoli, Johannes Emmerling, Massimo Tavoni
Abstract Geoengineering, including solar radiation management (SRM), has received increasing scrutiny due to the rise of climate extremes and slow progress in mitigating global carbon emissions. This climate policy option, even as a possibility, can have consequential implications for international climate governance. Here, we study how solar engineering affects the effectiveness and stability of a large set of regional coalitions through numerical simulations. We posit a requirement in terms of global political or economic power and analyze the exclusive membership coalition formation process when coalitions jointly decide on geoengineering and mitigation. We show that geoengineering can provide incentives for cooperation and partially solve the typical trade-off between stability and effectiveness of climate coalitions. However, temperature reduction mostly comes from deploying SRM within the coalition rather than from further emission reductions, thus exposing the world to relatively large-scale deployment of SRM with as of today uncertain potential side effects and risks.
由于极端气候的增加和全球碳排放减缓进展缓慢,包括太阳辐射管理(SRM)在内的地球工程受到越来越多的关注。这一气候政策选择,即使作为一种可能性,也可能对国际气候治理产生重大影响。在这里,我们通过数值模拟研究了太阳能工程如何影响大量区域联盟的有效性和稳定性。我们在全球政治或经济力量方面假设了一个要求,并分析了当联盟共同决定地球工程和缓解时的排他性成员联盟形成过程。我们表明,地球工程可以为合作提供激励,并部分解决气候联盟稳定性和有效性之间的典型权衡。然而,降低温度主要是通过在联盟内部部署SRM,而不是通过进一步减排,从而使世界面临相对大规模的SRM部署,其潜在的副作用和风险目前尚不确定。
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引用次数: 0
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Climatic Change
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