We prove that if a non-transferable utility (NTU) game is cardinally balanced and if, at every individually rational and efficient payoff vector, every non-zero normal vector to the set of payoff vectors feasible for the grand coalition is strictly positive, then the inner core is nonempty. The condition on normal vectors is satisfied if the set of payoff vectors feasible for the grand coalition is non-leveled. An NTU game generated by an exchange economy where every consumer has a continuous, concave, and strongly monotone utility function satisfies our sufficient condition. Our proof relies on Qin’s theorem on the nonemptiness of the inner core.
{"title":"The Nonemptiness of the Inner Core","authors":"Tomoki Inoue","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1954304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1954304","url":null,"abstract":"We prove that if a non-transferable utility (NTU) game is cardinally balanced and if, at every individually rational and efficient payoff vector, every non-zero normal vector to the set of payoff vectors feasible for the grand coalition is strictly positive, then the inner core is nonempty. The condition on normal vectors is satisfied if the set of payoff vectors feasible for the grand coalition is non-leveled. An NTU game generated by an exchange economy where every consumer has a continuous, concave, and strongly monotone utility function satisfies our sufficient condition. Our proof relies on Qin’s theorem on the nonemptiness of the inner core.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80171856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Environmental law and policy increasingly focuses on the extreme downsides of human policies affecting environmental quality: on ecological collapse, natural hazards, disasters, and catastrophes. A robust interdisciplinary literature has developed to guide policymakers in managing such extreme-downside phenomena. Strikingly, however, there is no opposite literature for regulating and managing phenomena that expose society to the possibility of extreme-upside events, such as might result from geoengineering, successfully colonizing other planets, or implementing other socially- or environmentally-transformational new technologies. A careful comparison of the policy implications of extreme-upside outcomes with extreme-downside outcomes suggests at least a partial explanation for the asymmetric attention to extreme-downside events: psychological phenomena like loss aversion lead to greater attention to, and care for, what are perceived as potential extreme losses than for concomitant extreme gains. Unfortunately, while understandable, this asymmetric focus on perceived losses may also generate unnecessary and even counterproductive despair, while simultaneously obscuring extraordinary opportunities for improving social welfare and environmental quality, and for using law and policy to achieve wonderful outcomes.
{"title":"Regulating Best-Case Scenarios","authors":"A. Rowell","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3157287","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3157287","url":null,"abstract":"Environmental law and policy increasingly focuses on the extreme downsides of human policies affecting environmental quality: on ecological collapse, natural hazards, disasters, and catastrophes. A robust interdisciplinary literature has developed to guide policymakers in managing such extreme-downside phenomena. Strikingly, however, there is no opposite literature for regulating and managing phenomena that expose society to the possibility of extreme-upside events, such as might result from geoengineering, successfully colonizing other planets, or implementing other socially- or environmentally-transformational new technologies. A careful comparison of the policy implications of extreme-upside outcomes with extreme-downside outcomes suggests at least a partial explanation for the asymmetric attention to extreme-downside events: psychological phenomena like loss aversion lead to greater attention to, and care for, what are perceived as potential extreme losses than for concomitant extreme gains. Unfortunately, while understandable, this asymmetric focus on perceived losses may also generate unnecessary and even counterproductive despair, while simultaneously obscuring extraordinary opportunities for improving social welfare and environmental quality, and for using law and policy to achieve wonderful outcomes.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"64 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83668378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article introduces Bayesian extension of ANOVA for the analysis of experimental data in consumer psychology. The approach, called BANOVA, addresses some common challenges that consumer psychologists encounter in their experimental work, and is specifically suited for the analysis of repeated measures designs. There appears to be a recent surge in interest in those designs based on the recognition that they are sensitive to individual differences in the response to experimental treatments and that they offer advantages for assessing causal mediating mechanisms, even at the individual level. BANOVA enables the analysis of repeated measures data derived from mixed within-between-subjects experiments with Normal and non-Normal dependent variables and accommodates unobserved individual differences. It allows for the calculation of effect sizes, planned comparisons, simple effects, spotlight and floodlight analyses, and includes a wide range of mediation, moderation, and moderated mediation analyses. An R software package implements these analyses, and aims to provide a one-stop-shop for the analysis of experiments in consumer psychology. The package is illustrated through applications to a number of data sets from previously published studies.
{"title":"BANOVA: Bayesian Analysis of Experiments in Consumer Psychology","authors":"M. Wedel, Chen Dong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3388203","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3388203","url":null,"abstract":"This article introduces Bayesian extension of ANOVA for the analysis of experimental data in consumer psychology. The approach, called BANOVA, addresses some common challenges that consumer psychologists encounter in their experimental work, and is specifically suited for the analysis of repeated measures designs. There appears to be a recent surge in interest in those designs based on the recognition that they are sensitive to individual differences in the response to experimental treatments and that they offer advantages for assessing causal mediating mechanisms, even at the individual level. BANOVA enables the analysis of repeated measures data derived from mixed within-between-subjects experiments with Normal and non-Normal dependent variables and accommodates unobserved individual differences. It allows for the calculation of effect sizes, planned comparisons, simple effects, spotlight and floodlight analyses, and includes a wide range of mediation, moderation, and moderated mediation analyses. An R software package implements these analyses, and aims to provide a one-stop-shop for the analysis of experiments in consumer psychology. The package is illustrated through applications to a number of data sets from previously published studies.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"116 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83685131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tetyana Kosyakova, Thomas Otter, S. Misra, C. Neuerburg
Choice environments in practice are often more complicated than the well-studied case of choice between perfect substitutes. Consumers choosing from menus or configuring products face choice sets that consist of substitutes, complements, and independent items, and the utility-maximizing choice corresponds to a particular item combination out of a potentially huge number of possible combinations. This reality is mirrored in menu-based choice experiments. The inferential challenge posed by data from such choices is in the calibration of utility functions that accommodate a mix of substitutes, complements, and independent items. We develop a model that not only accounts for heterogeneity in preferences, but also in what consumers perceive to be substitutes and complements and show how to perform Bayesian inference for this model based on the exact likelihood, despite its practically intractable normalizing constant. We characterize the model from first principles and show how it structurally improves on the multivariate probit model and on models that include cross-price effects in the utility function. We find empirical support for our model in a menu-based discrete choice experiment investigating demand for game consoles and accessories. Finally, we illustrate substantial implications from modeling substitution and complementarity for optimal pricing.
{"title":"Exact MCMC for Choices from Menus -- Measuring Substitution and Complementarity among Menu Items","authors":"Tetyana Kosyakova, Thomas Otter, S. Misra, C. Neuerburg","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2957105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2957105","url":null,"abstract":"Choice environments in practice are often more complicated than the well-studied case of choice between perfect substitutes. Consumers choosing from menus or configuring products face choice sets that consist of substitutes, complements, and independent items, and the utility-maximizing choice corresponds to a particular item combination out of a potentially huge number of possible combinations. This reality is mirrored in menu-based choice experiments. The inferential challenge posed by data from such choices is in the calibration of utility functions that accommodate a mix of substitutes, complements, and independent items. We develop a model that not only accounts for heterogeneity in preferences, but also in what consumers perceive to be substitutes and complements and show how to perform Bayesian inference for this model based on the exact likelihood, despite its practically intractable normalizing constant. We characterize the model from first principles and show how it structurally improves on the multivariate probit model and on models that include cross-price effects in the utility function. We find empirical support for our model in a menu-based discrete choice experiment investigating demand for game consoles and accessories. Finally, we illustrate substantial implications from modeling substitution and complementarity for optimal pricing.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79973577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article describes the behavior of people involved in business relations, which seeks to meet individual needs as well as those of organizations. The need manifested through actions or inactions at individual or organizational level leads to enforcement of a guilty, capable of being sanctioned. If the guilt of the physical person is represented or guided by internal stimuli, so also the guilt of the organization or enterprise is represented by the satisfaction of the needs, of its needs, carried out legally or apparently legal by its organs. Unlike the typical entrepreneur's typology, the entrepreneur who adopts illicit business behavior plans, focuses, sets goals, allocates resources, creates products or services tailored to obtain the illicit outcome, observes as a rule the plan for increasing the number of victims, identifies new channels to attract potential victims, creates an apparent brand to capture and determine the victim to accept the illicit offer as an auction.
{"title":"Creating Guilt in Business","authors":"Camil Tănăsescu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3388040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3388040","url":null,"abstract":"This article describes the behavior of people involved in business relations, which seeks to meet individual needs as well as those of organizations. The need manifested through actions or inactions at individual or organizational level leads to enforcement of a guilty, capable of being sanctioned. If the guilt of the physical person is represented or guided by internal stimuli, so also the guilt of the organization or enterprise is represented by the satisfaction of the needs, of its needs, carried out legally or apparently legal by its organs. Unlike the typical entrepreneur's typology, the entrepreneur who adopts illicit business behavior plans, focuses, sets goals, allocates resources, creates products or services tailored to obtain the illicit outcome, observes as a rule the plan for increasing the number of victims, identifies new channels to attract potential victims, creates an apparent brand to capture and determine the victim to accept the illicit offer as an auction.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89016458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
An economic theory of media consumption, logically consistent with studies from cognitive science and other observations, is developed based on two considerations impacting time allocation. First, media consumers rank media sources by the anticipated rate of utility gain. Second, a limited set of activities, including media consumption, can occur simultaneously to structured activities without distorting the utility from the structured activities. Optimal choice bounds individual consumption and leads to a formulation of demand for media used in the analysis of firm strategy and market structure. The results provide new insights into optimal advertising strategies, subscription pricing, competitive equilibrium characteristics, and observations from media related empirical studies.
{"title":"A Theory of Media Consumption and Demand, with Implications for Media Industry Structure and Firm Strategy","authors":"Brianna McFadden","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3097558","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3097558","url":null,"abstract":"An economic theory of media consumption, logically consistent with studies from cognitive science and other observations, is developed based on two considerations impacting time allocation. First, media consumers rank media sources by the anticipated rate of utility gain. Second, a limited set of activities, including media consumption, can occur simultaneously to structured activities without distorting the utility from the structured activities. Optimal choice bounds individual consumption and leads to a formulation of demand for media used in the analysis of firm strategy and market structure. The results provide new insights into optimal advertising strategies, subscription pricing, competitive equilibrium characteristics, and observations from media related empirical studies.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80066251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Antonia Grohmann, Lukas Menkhoff, Christoph Merkle, Renke Schmacker
This paper examines whether biased income expectations due to overconfidence lead to higher levels of debt-taking. In a lab experiment, participants can purchase goods by borrowing against their future income. We exogenously manipulate income expectations by letting income depend on relative performance in hard and easy quiz tasks. We successfully generate biased income expectations and show that participants with higher income expectations initially borrow more. Overconfident participants scale back their consumption after feedback. However, at the end of the experiment they remain with higher debt levels, which represent real financial losses. To assess the external validity, we nd further evidence for the link between overcondence and borrowing behavior in a representative survey (GSOEP-IS).
{"title":"Earn More Tomorrow: Overconfident Income Expectations and Consumer Indebtedness","authors":"Antonia Grohmann, Lukas Menkhoff, Christoph Merkle, Renke Schmacker","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3372805","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3372805","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines whether biased income expectations due to overconfidence lead to higher levels of debt-taking. In a lab experiment, participants can purchase goods by borrowing against their future income. We exogenously manipulate income expectations by letting income depend on relative performance in hard and easy quiz tasks. We successfully generate biased income expectations and show that participants with higher income expectations initially borrow more. Overconfident participants scale back their consumption after feedback. However, at the end of the experiment they remain with higher debt levels, which represent real financial losses. To assess the external validity, we nd further evidence for the link between overcondence and borrowing behavior in a representative survey (GSOEP-IS).","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86824541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I study the ex-ante aggregation of preferences of Bayesian agents in a purely subjective framework. Unlike Gilboa et al. (2004), I relax the assumption of Bayesian society while keeping the Pareto condition. Under a simple axiom that relates society’s preference to those of the agents, I obtain an additive separable representation of society’s preference. A strengthening of this axiom leads to a representation that resembles the Smooth Ambiguity Criterion of Klibanoff et al. (2005). I then study the properties of this representation, characterizing when society can be deemed to be ambiguity averse. I then briefly consider applications of this framework to study the Precautionary Principle and treatment choice under ambiguity.
我在一个纯粹主观的框架中研究贝叶斯主体的事前偏好聚合。与Gilboa et al.(2004)不同，我在保持帕累托条件的同时放宽了贝叶斯社会的假设。在一个简单的公理下，将社会偏好与那些行动者的偏好联系起来，我得到了社会偏好的可加性可分离表示。该公理的强化导致了类似于Klibanoff等人(2005)的平滑模糊标准的表示。然后，我研究了这种表征的特性，描述了什么时候社会可以被认为是厌恶模糊性的。然后，我简要地考虑了该框架在研究预防原则和歧义下的治疗选择方面的应用。
{"title":"Smooth Aggregation of Bayesian Agents","authors":"Lorenzo Maria Stanca","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3282391","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3282391","url":null,"abstract":"I study the ex-ante aggregation of preferences of Bayesian agents in a purely subjective framework. Unlike Gilboa et al. (2004), I relax the assumption of Bayesian society while keeping the Pareto condition. Under a simple axiom that relates society’s preference to those of the agents, I obtain an additive separable representation of society’s preference. A strengthening of this axiom leads to a representation that resembles the Smooth Ambiguity Criterion of Klibanoff et al. (2005). I then study the properties of this representation, characterizing when society can be deemed to be ambiguity averse. I then briefly consider applications of this framework to study the Precautionary Principle and treatment choice under ambiguity.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84091672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
While all forms of domestic violence can be uniquely traumatizing, incidents resulting in serious injury can lead to lasting physical, mental, and financial consequences for the victim. Hence, it is surprising that most literature on the effects of policy intervention on domestic violence treats such incidents as homogeneous rather than considering differing levels of victim injury. This study provides evidence that decriminalization of marijuana leads to substantial declines in victim injury. Among domestic violence assaults where the victim suffered a serious injury, there was a significant decline in incidents where the offender was under the influence of alcohol or used a weapon.
{"title":"Harm Reduction in Domestic Violence: Does Marijuana Make Assaults Safer?","authors":"Jacob Kaplan, Li Sian Goh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3369231","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3369231","url":null,"abstract":"While all forms of domestic violence can be uniquely traumatizing, incidents resulting in serious injury can lead to lasting physical, mental, and financial consequences for the victim. Hence, it is surprising that most literature on the effects of policy intervention on domestic violence treats such incidents as homogeneous rather than considering differing levels of victim injury. This study provides evidence that decriminalization of marijuana leads to substantial declines in victim injury. Among domestic violence assaults where the victim suffered a serious injury, there was a significant decline in incidents where the offender was under the influence of alcohol or used a weapon.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81577944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mental health is not only the lack of mental disorders but is considered a crucial resource for overall health and well-being (including employment and productivity). The current paper tries to shed some light on the evolution of mental well-being over a period of 15 years, including the years before, during and after the most recent economic downturn. We use data coming from the Spanish National Health Surveys of 2006/2007, 2011/2012 and 2016/2017. Mental health is proxied by two measures, doctor-diagnosed mental disorder and psychological distress (based on GHQ-12). To account for the causal relationship between the two mental health indicators, we estimate a bivariate probit model. We observe different patterns of the two mental health indicators over time. Psychological distress increased during recession years, due to major risk factors as unemployment and loss of socioeconomic status. Even though the need for mental healthcare increased during the recession, the fact that fewer people were diagnosed suggests that barriers to access to mental healthcare may be aggravated during the crisis.
{"title":"Socioeconomic Burden of Mental Disorders in Spain 2006-2017","authors":"A. Stoyanova, J. Pinilla","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3369466","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3369466","url":null,"abstract":"Mental health is not only the lack of mental disorders but is considered a crucial resource for overall health and well-being (including employment and productivity). The current paper tries to shed some light on the evolution of mental well-being over a period of 15 years, including the years before, during and after the most recent economic downturn. We use data coming from the Spanish National Health Surveys of 2006/2007, 2011/2012 and 2016/2017. Mental health is proxied by two measures, doctor-diagnosed mental disorder and psychological distress (based on GHQ-12). To account for the causal relationship between the two mental health indicators, we estimate a bivariate probit model. We observe different patterns of the two mental health indicators over time. Psychological distress increased during recession years, due to major risk factors as unemployment and loss of socioeconomic status. Even though the need for mental healthcare increased during the recession, the fact that fewer people were diagnosed suggests that barriers to access to mental healthcare may be aggravated during the crisis.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78883081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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