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Observations on Cooperation 合作意见
Pub Date : 2017-11-15 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdx076
Yuval Heller, Erik Mohlin
We study environments in which agents are randomly matched to play a Prisoner’s Dilemma, and each player observes a few of the partner’s past actions against previous opponents. We depart from the existing related literature by allowing a small fraction of the population to be commitment types. The presence of committed agents destabilizes previously proposed mechanisms for sustaining cooperation. We present a novel intuitive combination of strategies that sustains cooperation in various environments. Moreover, we show that under an additional assumption of stationarity, this combination of strategies is essentially the unique mechanism to support full cooperation, and it is robust to various perturbations. Finally, we extend the results to a setup in which agents also observe actions played by past opponents against the current partner, and we characterize which observation structure is optimal for sustaining cooperation.
我们研究了这样的环境,在这种环境中,代理被随机匹配来玩囚徒困境,每个参与者都观察了一些合作伙伴过去对前对手的行动。我们从现有的相关文献出发,允许一小部分人口成为承诺类型。承诺代理人的存在破坏了先前提出的维持合作的机制。我们提出了一种新的直观的策略组合,在各种环境中维持合作。此外,我们表明,在额外的平稳性假设下,这种策略组合本质上是支持充分合作的唯一机制,并且它对各种扰动具有鲁棒性。最后,我们将结果扩展到一个设置,其中智能体也观察过去对手对当前合作伙伴的行动,并描述哪种观察结构对于维持合作是最优的。
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引用次数: 51
The Importance of Family, Friends and Location on the Development of Human Capital in Mid-Childhood and Early Adolescence 家庭、朋友和地点对儿童中期和青少年早期人力资本发展的重要性
Pub Date : 2017-11-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3071739
J. Creamer
This paper documents gaps in two children’s psychosocial competencies, pride and self-esteem, by socioeconomic and locality gaps. It then examines how relationships with parents and peers act as determinants of these competencies and how improvements in relationships can close gaps. A cohort of Peruvian children and their siblings between the ages of 6 and 12 from the Young Lives survey is used for the analysis. Non-parametric analysis maps the differences by wealth and locality in children’s pride, self-esteem, and their relationship with peers and parents. Gaps are prevalent, but diminish as children age in all measures outside of peer relationships. Notably, parent-child relationships in rural households are worse than those in urban settings, illustrating one of the consequences of living in rural areas. Parametric analysis estimates wealth gradients and determinants of pride and self-esteem. The results show that relationships are hugely important, explaining between 50 to 80 percent of the variance in children’s pride and self-esteem together. While there are gaps at the mean, there is no evidence of wealth gradients in this sample for pride and self-esteem. The unique sibling’s aspect of the sample is exploited in a siblings difference model to improve identification, showing that the initial estimates are robust to household fixed effects. Decomposition results show that mean gaps in pride and self-esteem by wealth and locality can be closed by improving the parent-child relationship, with improvements of 21% in poor households and 80% for rural households. These estimates suggest that the previous literature which do not measure the quality of relationships provide lower bound estimates of the effect of parents on their children’s development. Policies which can improve these relationships, especially the parent-child relationship, are important for giving poorer children the essential human capital to overcome poverty in the future.
本文通过社会经济和地方差距记录了两个儿童的社会心理能力,骄傲和自尊方面的差距。然后研究了与父母和同伴的关系如何成为这些能力的决定因素,以及改善关系如何缩小差距。从“年轻的生活”调查中选取了一组年龄在6至12岁之间的秘鲁儿童及其兄弟姐妹进行分析。非参数分析绘制了儿童的骄傲、自尊及其与同伴和父母关系的财富和地区差异。差距是普遍存在的,但随着孩子年龄的增长,在同伴关系之外的所有方面都会缩小。值得注意的是,农村家庭的亲子关系比城市家庭差,这说明了生活在农村地区的后果之一。参数分析估计财富梯度和骄傲和自尊的决定因素。研究结果表明,亲子关系非常重要,可以解释50%到80%的孩子在骄傲和自尊方面的差异。虽然在平均值上存在差距,但在这个样本中,没有证据表明骄傲和自尊存在财富梯度。在兄弟姐妹差异模型中,利用样本的独特兄弟姐妹方面来改进识别,表明初始估计对家庭固定效应是稳健的。分解结果表明,改善亲子关系可以消除贫富和地域之间的平均自尊差距,贫困家庭的改善率为21%,农村家庭的改善率为80%。这些估计表明,以前没有衡量关系质量的文献提供了父母对孩子发展影响的下限估计。能够改善这些关系,特别是亲子关系的政策对于使较贫穷的儿童获得今后克服贫穷的必要人力资本是很重要的。
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引用次数: 0
Heard It Through the Grapevine! How Peer-to-Peer Interaction Affects Customer Experience and Word-of-Mouth Intention in Different Service Environments: A Bayesian Approach 听小道消息!在不同的服务环境中,点对点互动如何影响顾客体验和口碑意向:贝叶斯方法
Pub Date : 2017-11-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3069933
Ribamar Siqueira, Enrique ter Horst, Germán Molina, M. Losada, Marelby Amado Mateus
The study of customer experience (CX) has become a prominent topic in marketing research lately because of the evolution of the customer/company relationship. The total number of touch points where this interaction can take place has increased significantly due to the total number of channels and media outlets now available to customers, further increasing the complexity of the customer journey. As a consequence, the level of control companies yield over the experience provided to customers decreased resulting in a more intricate process of creation, management and delivery of experiences to customers. The present research contributes to marketing research in four main ways. First, it investigates the relationship between peer-to-peer interaction, peace-of-mind, and service outcome quality with the customer experience construct. Second, we examine the role peer-to-peer (PTP) interaction plays as a social/external/independent touch point in accordance with Lemon and Verhoef (2016), where interpersonal communication among customers occurs through WOM. PTP interaction is particularly important within the retail context. The present study introduces the novel approach of utilizing an innovative and less common analysis methodology based on Bayesian modeling that offers several advantages over traditional methods such as SEM in terms of how it approaches sample size and homogeneity, potential missing data and specification of research.
由于客户/公司关系的演变,客户体验(CX)的研究最近已成为营销研究中的一个突出课题。由于现在可供客户使用的渠道和媒体渠道的总数,这种互动发生的接触点的总数已经显著增加,这进一步增加了客户旅程的复杂性。因此,公司对提供给客户的体验的控制水平降低,导致创建、管理和向客户提供体验的过程更加复杂。本研究对市场营销研究的贡献主要体现在四个方面。首先,研究了点对点互动、安心和服务结果质量与客户体验构建之间的关系。其次,根据Lemon和Verhoef(2016)的研究,我们研究了点对点(PTP)互动作为社会/外部/独立接触点的作用,其中客户之间的人际沟通是通过口碑发生的。PTP交互在零售环境中尤为重要。本研究介绍了利用基于贝叶斯模型的创新和不太常见的分析方法的新方法,该方法在如何处理样本量和同质性,潜在缺失数据和研究规范方面比传统方法(如SEM)提供了几个优势。
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引用次数: 0
Inference of Local Regression in the Presence of Nuisance Parameters 妨害参数存在下的局部回归推理
Pub Date : 2017-11-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2992157
Ke-Li Xu
Abstract We consider inference based on local estimating equations in the presence of nuisance parameters. The framework is useful for a number of applications including those in economic policy evaluation based on discontinuities or kinks and in real-time financial risk management. We focus on the criterion-function-based (in particular, empirical likelihood-based) inference, and establish conditions under which the test statistic has a pivotal asymptotic distribution. In the key step of eliminating nuisance parameters in the (possibly non-smooth) criterion function, we consider two different approaches based on either concentration or Laplace-type plug-in estimation. The former is natural, and the latter does not require optimization and can be computationally attractive in applications. Our framework can easily incorporate bias correction induced by localization, and the inference is robust to the identification strength of the parameter of interest. The high-level assumptions are illustrated with several examples. We also conduct Monte Carlo simulations and provide an empirical application which assesses heterogeneous effects of academic probation in college and gender differences under the quantile regression discontinuity design.
摘要研究了存在干扰参数时基于局部估计方程的推理问题。该框架可用于许多应用,包括基于不连续性或扭结的经济政策评估和实时金融风险管理。我们专注于基于准则函数(特别是基于经验似然)的推理,并建立检验统计量具有关键渐近分布的条件。在消除(可能不光滑的)准则函数中的干扰参数的关键步骤中,我们考虑了两种不同的基于集中或拉普拉斯类型插件估计的方法。前者是自然的,后者不需要优化,并且在应用程序中具有计算吸引力。我们的框架可以很容易地包含由定位引起的偏差校正,并且推理对感兴趣参数的识别强度具有鲁棒性。用几个例子说明了高级假设。在分位数回归不连续设计下,通过蒙特卡罗模拟和实证应用,对高校留校学习的异质性效应和性别差异进行了评估。
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引用次数: 5
‘Fateful’ vs. ‘Everyday’ Choices: Qualitative Differences in Choice Situations and the Dimensions of Choicework “命运”与“日常”选择:选择情境的质性差异和选择工作的维度
Pub Date : 2017-11-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3068671
Anna K. Fam, D. Leontiev, E. Osin
This study focuses on choicework in situations of different subjective importance. Psychology students (N=74) and internet sample respondents (N=1,833) were asked to recollect several choice situations of varying importance from their experience and to name, describe, and evaluate them using a number of self-report measures. Combining qualitative and quantitative data analysis, we devised a series of qualitative indicators of choicework (context and content of choice, emotional attitude to the choice process, satisfaction with choice, mindfulness, autonomy, difficulty, and significance) and compared the choice situations on these parameters. Significant and trivial choices differed on a number of variables (more significant situations were characterized by more complicated and conscious choicework). Choice situations with different thematic content also differed in their subjective importance and other parameters of choicework. The results imply the necessity to consider the scale of significance and the thematic content of situations used in choice studies.
本研究聚焦于不同主观重要性情境下的选择作业。心理学学生(N=74)和网络样本受访者(N= 1833)被要求回忆几个从他们的经历中选择的不同重要性的情况,并使用一些自我报告的方法来命名、描述和评估它们。结合定性和定量数据分析,我们设计了一系列选择工作的定性指标(选择的情境和内容、对选择过程的情绪态度、对选择的满意度、正念、自主性、难度和重要性),并对这些参数的选择情况进行了比较。重要和琐碎的选择在许多变量上有所不同(更重要的情况的特点是更复杂和有意识的选择)。不同主题内容的选择情境在主观重要性和其他选择参数上也存在差异。结果表明,有必要考虑重要性的规模和主题内容的情况下使用的选择研究。
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引用次数: 1
Dualities in Behavioural Economics and Psychology: A Critical Assessment in the Light of the Mechanistic Approach in the Philosophy of the Neurosciences 行为经济学和心理学的二元性:神经科学哲学中机械方法的批判性评估
Pub Date : 2017-11-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3065749
Carsten Herrmann-Pillath
Building on an overview of various kinds of dual systems/process theories in psychology and economics, the paper proceeds with a methodological assessment in terms of the mechanistic or constitutive explanations framework that has gained prominence in philosophy of science recently, especially in the context of the neurosciences. I conclude that the existing dualist theories fail to meet the standards of proper causal explanations as established in this research. I suggest an alternative ‘dual functions’ view based on Marr’s celebrated methodology of computational neuroscience, and show that recent results in psychological and neuroscience research on dualities undermine the case for a simple categorization of processes in terms of properties such as relative speed and computational load, and point to alternative models available in the literature that highlight the role of higher-order levels of cognitive organisation in selecting specific mechanisms of choice and behaviour. In conclusion, I recommend a competing mechanisms framework along the lines of Edelman’s Neural Darwinism which concurs with recent approaches to parallelism in action preparation and selection in psychology.
在对心理学和经济学中各种双系统/过程理论进行概述的基础上,本文根据最近在科学哲学中,特别是在神经科学的背景下获得突出地位的机制或构成解释框架进行方法学评估。我的结论是,现有的二元论理论不能满足本研究建立的适当因果解释的标准。我在Marr著名的计算神经科学方法论的基础上提出了另一种“对偶函数”观点,并表明最近心理学和神经科学对偶研究的结果破坏了根据相对速度和计算负荷等属性对过程进行简单分类的情况,并指出文献中可用的替代模型,这些模型强调了更高层次的认知组织在选择特定的选择和行为机制方面的作用。总之,我推荐一个竞争机制框架,沿着埃德尔曼的神经达尔文主义的路线,这与最近在心理学中行动准备和选择的并行性方法一致。
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引用次数: 0
An Experimental Study on Effects of Results-Based Reporting on Individual Giving Behavior – Does It Pay Off? 基于结果的报告对个人捐赠行为影响的实验研究——是否有回报?
Pub Date : 2017-10-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3061026
Lena Wörrlein, Marius Mews
Organizations aiming for a social goal often report on their work performed and not on actual results. However, results provide better information, because it contains information concerning the changes that occur within the target groups’ environment (outcome) and/or the whole community (impact) as a result of the work performed (output). This study empirically investigates, whether an increasing level of results-based information affects the donor’s willingness to donate and the amount of donations. The authors deploy an online experiment to test the effect in a within-subjects design and a between-subjects design. It is found that the willingness to donate and the amount significantly increase with the level of results for the within-subjects design. Surprisingly, in the between-subjects design this is not the case. It is concluded that donors change their willingness to donate and appreciate higher results levels, only if they got to see and to compare all three levels.
以社会目标为目标的组织经常报告他们的工作执行情况,而不是实际结果。然而,结果提供了更好的信息,因为它包含了关于目标群体的环境(结果)和/或整个社区(影响)作为所执行工作的结果(输出)所发生的变化的信息。本研究通过实证研究,探讨了基于结果的信息水平的提高是否会影响捐赠者的捐赠意愿和捐赠数量。作者利用在线实验来测试受试者内部设计和受试者之间设计的效果。研究发现,在受试者内部设计的结果水平下,捐赠意愿和金额显著增加。令人惊讶的是,在受试者之间的设计中,情况并非如此。结论是,只有当捐赠者看到并比较所有三个级别时,他们才会改变捐赠意愿,并欣赏更高的结果水平。
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引用次数: 0
Elimination Tournament Design under Psychological Momentum 基于心理动力的淘汰赛设计
Pub Date : 2017-10-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3056658
Bo Chen, Xiandeng Jiang
In multi-round elimination tournaments, players experience "psychological momentum". We re-consider the design of elimination tournament plan, by taking into account of various types of psychological momentum. The results show that if there is negative psychological momentum, either persistent or not, a double-elimination tournament elicits a higher total effort than a single-elimination tournament if and only if the negative psychological shocks from a player's failures in preceding rounds do not affect this player's mental status significantly in the following rounds. Similarly, if positive momentum is non-persistent, a double-elimination tournament elicits a higher total effort if and only if psychological shocks are not significant. However, if positive psychological momentum is persistent, then a double-elimination tournament always dominates a single-elimination tournament.
在多轮淘汰赛中,球员会经历“心理动力”。我们重新考虑淘汰赛计划的设计,考虑到各种类型的心理动力。结果表明,无论是否存在消极的心理动量,当且仅当选手在前几轮比赛中失败所带来的消极心理冲击在接下来的比赛中不会显著影响选手的心理状态时,双淘汰赛比单淘汰赛激发出更高的总努力。同样,如果积极的势头不是持久的,双淘汰赛会在且仅在心理冲击不显著的情况下引发更高的总努力。然而,如果积极的心理势头持续下去,那么双淘汰赛总是会主导单淘汰赛。
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引用次数: 0
Risky Health Choices and the Balloon Economic Risk Protocol 危险的健康选择和气球经济风险协议
Pub Date : 2017-10-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3056512
K. Fairley, Jacob M. Parelman, Matt Jones, R. M. Carter
Abstract We describe a risk protocol that combines the rigor of economic studies of risk with the ecological validity of tasks from psychology. Despite a wealth of experimental contributions on risk preferences, stemming from a variety of elicitation tasks, the external validity of standard measures of risk is questionable. In this study we focus on a risk task – the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) – which is highly successful in predicting health-related risk behaviors such as alcohol use, drug use, smoking, unprotected sex, driving without a seatbelt, and stealing. The BART is not commonly used by economic scholars because of concerns that participants may not adequately comprehend uncertainty associated with the task and because of the resulting difficulty in relating participants’ choices to standard risk models. To answer these concerns and build on associations with real world risk, we designed a modified BART, which we will refer to as the Balloon Economic Risk Protocol (BERP). In this protocol, participants observe the distribution of pop points prior to the task to create a more consistent knowledge base. We then use a belief elicitation technique to produce a user-generated prior distribution of balloon pops. Using these measures, we compare participants’ behavior to the expected-value optimum to provide a link to standard models of risk. In accordance with past economic literature, we found that participants’ BERP-generated risk preferences revealed mild risk aversion on average, and correlated with a self-report questionnaire on drinking, drug use, and smoking behavior.
我们描述了一种风险协议,它结合了风险的经济研究的严谨性和心理学任务的生态有效性。尽管对风险偏好有大量的实验贡献,源于各种启发任务,但风险标准测量的外部有效性是值得怀疑的。在这项研究中,我们专注于一个风险任务——气球模拟风险任务(BART)——它在预测与健康相关的风险行为方面非常成功,如饮酒、吸毒、吸烟、无保护的性行为、不系安全带驾驶和偷窃。由于担心参与者可能无法充分理解与任务相关的不确定性,以及因此难以将参与者的选择与标准风险模型联系起来,经济学者不常使用BART。为了回答这些问题并建立与现实世界风险的联系,我们设计了一个修改后的BART,我们将其称为气球经济风险协议(BERP)。在此协议中,参与者在任务之前观察pop点的分布,以创建更一致的知识库。然后,我们使用信念启发技术来生成用户生成的气球爆裂的先验分布。使用这些措施,我们将参与者的行为与期望值最优进行比较,以提供与标准风险模型的联系。根据过去的经济学文献,我们发现参与者的berp产生的风险偏好平均显示出轻微的风险厌恶,并与饮酒、吸毒和吸烟行为的自我报告问卷相关。
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引用次数: 7
Theta, Alpha and Beta Band Modulations During Auditory Condensation Task Performance 听觉凝聚任务表现中的θ、α和β波段调制
Pub Date : 2017-10-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3055647
Natalia Zhozhikashvili, Yulia M. Nurislamova, N. Novikov, V. Medvedev, E. Chernysheva, I. Lazarev, B. Chernyshev
Outcome of a behavioral response can be detected either internally at the time of the response commission, or externally through a feedback signal. In both cases, a number of brain networks that subserve cognitive control are recruited, all networks having certain distinctive signatures in electroencephalographic oscillations. Yet most studies in the field have several limitations. First, typical behavioral tasks depend heavily upon inhibition of prepotent responses – thus they mostly exploit control of the motor threshold rather than the full range of processes related to cognitive control. Second, these studies were conducted in the visual modality, leaving it unclear whether the oscillatory phenomena found in these studies truly relate to cognitive control or they reflect effects specific to the tasks used. Here, we studied outcome-related adjustments by analyzing response-related and feedback-related modulations of theta, alpha, and beta band activity in the auditory version of the condensation task, which bears no inherent dependence upon inhibition of prepotent responses and which is administered in the auditory modality. Frontal midline theta (FMT) activity was enhanced after errors compared with correct trials, and after negative feedback compared with positive feedback. Alpha band suppression in the parieto-occipital region was enhanced in the late post-error interval. Frontal beta oscillatory activity was increased on correct trials during positive feedback onset. These findings indicate that several separate neuronal networks are involved in post-error and post-feedback adjustments: the midfrontal performance monitoring network, the parietal attentional network, and the frontal reward-processing network. Our findings extend the current knowledge concerning the functional role of theta, alpha, and beta band oscillations in cognitive control beyond a limited range of tasks and beyond the visual modality.
行为反应的结果可以在反应委托时在内部检测到,也可以通过外部反馈信号检测到。在这两种情况下,许多辅助认知控制的大脑网络被招募,所有网络在脑电图振荡中都有某些独特的特征。然而,该领域的大多数研究都有一些局限性。首先,典型的行为任务在很大程度上依赖于对优势反应的抑制,因此它们主要利用对运动阈值的控制,而不是与认知控制相关的全部过程。其次,这些研究是在视觉模式下进行的,尚不清楚这些研究中发现的振荡现象是否真的与认知控制有关,还是它们反映了所使用任务的特定影响。在这里,我们通过分析凝结任务听觉版本中theta、alpha和beta波段活动的反应相关和反馈相关调节来研究结果相关调节,这些调节不依赖于对强性反应的抑制,并且在听觉模式中进行。与正确实验相比,错误实验后额叶中线θ (FMT)活动增强,负反馈实验后与正反馈实验相比,负反馈实验后FMT活动增强。顶枕区α波段抑制在误差后后期增强。在正反馈开始的正确试验中,额叶β振荡活动增加。这些发现表明,有几个独立的神经网络参与了错误后和反馈后的调整:额叶中表现监测网络、顶叶注意网络和额叶奖励处理网络。我们的发现扩展了目前关于θ、α和β波段振荡在认知控制中的功能作用的知识,超出了有限的任务范围和视觉模式。
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引用次数: 0
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