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Self-Regulation and Meta-Regulation – Regulating the Members or the SRO. A Theoretical and Experimental Study 自我规管与元规管——规管会员或SRO。理论与实验研究
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3325599
Silvester van Koten
Regulatory investigations by Self-Regulatory organizations (SROs) are usually considered cheaper than investigations by a government. However, in practice, oversight by an SRO is mostly still supplemented by governmental oversight. The government may exert oversight over the SRO itself, a construction referred to as “meta-regulation" or "co-regulation", or oversee members of the SRO. Indeed, the overall performance of SROs has been mixed, and theoretical models show that they have incentives to set lax standards or to cover up detected violations. Nonetheless, some research indicates that meta-regulation, oversight of the SRO itself, may not be necessary in some settings. Using a costly-state-verification model, DeMarzo et al. (2001; 2005) show that when the government implicitly threatens to conduct additional investigations of SRO members, a relatively "good" outcome can be established as an equilibrium. In this "good" outcome, the SRO chooses to follow high performance standards in order to pre-empt any (relatively costly) governmental investigation. As a result, no costly governmental investigations of the SRO members take place, and no meta-regulation of the SRO is necessary. I extend this model to include plausible settings in which the actual rigor of oversight by the SRO can be verified only ex-post. I show that in such settings, an SRO may have incentives to announce stricter regimes than it effectively implements and that, as a result, a "bad", Pareto-inefficient outcome may be established as an equilibrium. In the "bad" outcome, the SRO relinquishes all oversight to the government. The predictions of this model are supported by experimental tests. The "good" equilibrium could be re-established with sufficient meta-regulation of the SRO. The results thus suggest a continuing need for meta-regulation in these settings. This form of meta-regulation may be of a relatively light nature, limited to verifying and sanctioning that the SRO implements its announced policies.
自我监管组织(sro)的监管调查通常被认为比政府的调查成本低。然而,在实践中,SRO的监督大多仍由政府监督补充。政府可以对SRO本身进行监督,这种结构被称为“元监管”或“共同监管”,或者监督SRO的成员。事实上,sro的整体表现好坏参半,理论模型表明,他们有动机制定宽松的标准或掩盖发现的违规行为。尽管如此,一些研究表明,在某些情况下,可能没有必要对SRO本身进行元监管。DeMarzo等人(2001;2005)表明,当政府暗中威胁要对SRO成员进行额外调查时,可以建立一个相对“好的”结果作为均衡。在这个“好的”结果中,SRO选择遵循高绩效标准,以先发制人地进行任何(相对昂贵的)政府调查。因此,政府没有对SRO成员进行昂贵的调查,也没有必要对SRO进行元监管。我将这个模型扩展到包括一些合理的设置,在这些设置中,SRO的实际监督严格程度只能事后验证。我表明,在这种情况下,SRO可能有动机宣布比它有效实施的更严格的制度,因此,一个“坏的”、帕累托效率低下的结果可能被建立为一种均衡。在“坏”的结果中,SRO放弃了对政府的所有监督。该模型的预测得到了实验检验的支持。通过对SRO进行充分的元调控,可以重新建立“良好”均衡。因此,结果表明,在这些情况下,需要持续的元监管。这种形式的元监管可能具有相对较轻的性质,仅限于验证和制裁SRO执行其宣布的政策。
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引用次数: 1
Retail Inventory, Consumer Stockpiling, and Environmental Stress: Empirical Evidence From a Natural Experiment 零售库存、消费者库存和环境压力:来自自然实验的经验证据
Pub Date : 2018-12-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3308690
X. Pan, B. Mantin, M. Dresner
During economic downturns, consumers change their buying patterns, resulting in suboptimal retail fulfillment performance in the absence of adjustments to these changes by retailers. This paper shows how household stockpiling patterns evolved during the “Great Recession” of 2008-2009, and demonstrates the impact of this change on inventory management at a retail chain that pursues a high-low pricing strategy. In the face of increasing environmental stress due to financial and economic events, consumers are likely to spend more time at home and shop more frugally. At the same time, in a high-low (promotional) environment, consumers may be incentivized to increase the amount they stockpile to take advantage of promotional prices. Accordingly, we use the two-segment household inventory theory to categorize consumers in a retail channel into non-stockpiling and stockpiling segments. Drawing on a combination of household-level and retailer-level analysis and using the 2008–2009 financial crisis as a natural experiment, we find that as environmental stress increases, consumers, in general, decrease their consumption rates. However, they also increase the time between shopping trips, thus hold inventories for a longer period of time. Finally, the relative size of the stockpiling segment to the non-stockpilers is reduced, perhaps due to budget constraints on a larger percent of the population. These changes in consumer stockpiling behavior add complexity to retail inventory planning. In particular, lower consumer demand does not imply lower inventory risk during times of economic downturns. In order to efficiently meet consumer needs, retailers need to carefully adjust inventory and safety stock levels (both of which, as we find, may actually need to increase or decrease during promotional periods), due to the compound variability in consumption rate, inventory holding duration, and size of the stockpiling segment.
在经济衰退期间,消费者改变了他们的购买模式,导致零售商在没有对这些变化进行调整的情况下,零售履行绩效不佳。本文展示了2008-2009年“大衰退”期间家庭库存模式的演变,并展示了这种变化对追求高-低定价策略的零售连锁店库存管理的影响。面对金融和经济事件造成的日益严重的环境压力,消费者可能会花更多的时间在家里,更节俭地购物。同时,在高-低(促销)环境中,消费者可能会被激励增加他们的库存数量,以利用促销价格。因此,我们使用两段家庭库存理论将零售渠道中的消费者分为非库存和库存两部分。结合家庭层面和零售商层面的分析,并将2008-2009年的金融危机作为自然实验,我们发现,随着环境压力的增加,消费者总体上降低了消费率。然而,它们也增加了两次购物之间的时间间隔,从而延长了库存的时间。最后,储存部门相对于非储存部门的规模减少了,这可能是由于对人口中较大比例的人的预算限制。消费者储存行为的这些变化增加了零售库存计划的复杂性。特别是,在经济低迷时期,较低的消费需求并不意味着较低的库存风险。为了有效地满足消费者的需求,零售商需要仔细调整库存和安全库存水平(正如我们所发现的,这两者实际上可能需要在促销期间增加或减少),因为消费率、库存持有时间和库存部分的规模存在复合变化。
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引用次数: 1
Fair Odds for Noisy Probabilities 噪声概率的公平概率
Pub Date : 2018-11-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3292804
Ulrik W. Nash
We suggest that one individual holds multiple degrees of belief about an outcome, given the evidence. We then investigate the implications of such noisy probabilities for a buyer and a seller of binary options and find the odds agreed upon to ensure zero-expectation betting, differ from those consistent with the relative frequency of outcomes. More precisely, the buyer and the seller agree to odds that are higher (lower) than the reciprocal of their averaged unbiased probabilities when this average indicates the outcome is more (less) likely to occur than chance. The favorite-longshot bias thereby emerges to establish the foundation of an equitable market. As corollaries, our work suggests the old-established way of revealing someone's degree of belief through wagers may be more problematic than previously thought, and implies that betting markets cannot generally promise to support rational decisions.
我们认为,在给定证据的情况下,一个人对结果持有多种程度的信念。然后,我们研究了二元期权的买方和卖方的这种嘈杂概率的含义,并发现同意确保零期望投注的赔率不同于那些与结果的相对频率一致的赔率。更准确地说,买卖双方同意的概率高于(低于)他们平均无偏概率的倒数,当这个平均值表明结果发生的可能性大于(小于)偶然。“偏好长线投资”的偏见由此出现,为公平市场奠定了基础。作为推论,我们的工作表明,通过下注来揭示某人信仰程度的传统方式可能比以前认为的更有问题,这意味着博彩市场通常不能承诺支持理性决策。
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引用次数: 0
Harnessing the Small Victories: Goal Design Strategies for a Mobile Calorie and Weight Loss Tracking Application 利用小的胜利:目标设计策略的移动卡路里和减肥跟踪应用程序
Pub Date : 2018-11-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2928441
Kosuke Uetake, N. Yang
We investigate the role of small victories, in the form of short-term goal achievements, on long-term health outcomes. Using novel large-scale data from a popular mobile calorie and weight management application, we track the daily health outcomes across a large number of users. The application sets a salient daily budget for calories, and by comparing cases in which the users are under versus over-budget, we document empirical patterns about the role of reference-dependence calorie consumption and future weight loss. Motivated by these patterns, we estimate a dynamic structural model of calorie consumption with reference-dependent utility and serial correlation to evaluate various hypothetical goal design schemes. First, we show that adaptive goal designs are more effective at encouraging disciplined calorie consumption than goal designs that are uniformly applied to all users. Second, our analysis of goal personalization reveals that users with high initial BMI may benefit the most from challenging goals. Third, we demonstrate that exposing users to a variety of means towards goal achievement may be worthwhile.
我们调查了短期目标实现形式的小胜利对长期健康结果的作用。使用来自流行的移动卡路里和体重管理应用程序的新颖大规模数据,我们跟踪大量用户的日常健康结果。该应用程序为卡路里设定了一个显著的每日预算,通过比较用户低于和超过预算的情况,我们记录了参考依赖卡路里消耗和未来体重减轻的经验模式。在这些模式的激励下,我们估计了一个具有参考依赖效用和序列相关性的卡路里消耗动态结构模型,以评估各种假设的目标设计方案。首先,我们表明适应性目标设计在鼓励有纪律的卡路里消耗方面比统一适用于所有用户的目标设计更有效。其次,我们对目标个性化的分析显示,初始BMI较高的用户可能从具有挑战性的目标中获益最多。第三,我们证明,让用户接触各种实现目标的手段可能是值得的。
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引用次数: 8
Prior Knowledge and Monotone Decision Problems 先验知识与单调决策问题
Pub Date : 2018-11-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3204669
Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné
Abstract This paper identifies cognitive conditions under which a rational individual or group decision-maker will want to commit ex ante to some choice restrictions, in order to get extra information about an uncertain state of nature. We show that the implemented limitations will then bring her to solve a monotone decision problem. This provides a behavioral/microeconomic foundation for the recurrence of this type of problem in many contexts. From another angle, the analysis explains why and when individuals and organizations resort to automatic responses or routines in some circumstances, and how this can shape their environment.
摘要:本文确定了理性的个人或群体决策者为了获得关于不确定自然状态的额外信息而希望事先做出某些选择限制的认知条件。我们表明,实现的限制将使她解决单调决策问题。这为这类问题在许多情况下的反复出现提供了行为/微观经济基础。从另一个角度来看,该分析解释了个人和组织在某些情况下为什么以及何时诉诸自动反应或例行程序,以及这如何塑造他们的环境。
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引用次数: 1
Cognitive Skills and the Development of Strategic Sophistication 认知技能和战略复杂性的发展
Pub Date : 2018-11-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3285484
Eduardo Fé, David Gill
In this paper, we investigate how observable cognitive skills influence the development of strategic sophistication. To answer this question, we study experimentally how psychometric measures of theory-of-mind and cognitive ability (or‘fluid intelligence')work together with age to determine the strategic ability and level-k behavior of children in a variety of incentivized strategic interactions. We find that better theory-of-mind and cognitive ability predict strategic sophistication in competitive games. Furthermore, age and cognitive ability act in tandem as complements, while age and theory-of-mind operate independently. Older children respond to information about the cognitive ability of their opponent, which provides support for the emergence of a sophisticated strategic theory-of-mind. Finally, theory-of-mind and age strongly predict whether children respond to intentions in a gift-exchange game, while cognitive ability has no influence, suggesting that different psychometric measures of cognitive skill correspond to different cognitive processes in strategic situations that involve the understanding of intentions.
在本文中,我们研究了可观察的认知技能如何影响策略复杂性的发展。为了回答这个问题,我们实验研究了心理理论和认知能力(或“流体智力”)的心理测量方法如何与年龄一起工作,以确定儿童在各种激励策略互动中的策略能力和k级行为。我们发现更好的心理理论和认知能力预示着竞争游戏中的战略复杂性。此外,年龄和认知能力是互补的,而年龄和心智理论是独立的。大一点的孩子会对对手的认知能力做出反应,这为复杂的心理策略理论的出现提供了支持。最后,心理理论和年龄对儿童在礼物交换游戏中是否对意图作出反应具有很强的预测作用,而认知能力对其没有影响,这表明在涉及意图理解的策略情境中,不同的认知技能心理测量指标对应不同的认知过程。
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引用次数: 15
How Is Mobile User Behavior Different? — A Hidden Markov Model of Mobile Application Usage Dynamics 手机用户的行为有何不同?移动应用使用动态的隐马尔可夫模型
Pub Date : 2018-11-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3284269
Shaohui Wu, Yong Tan, Yubo Chen, Yitian Liang
Driven by the ubiquity and strong context dependence of mobile app use, Internet companies are in a race of cross-industry expansion to build a seamless ecosystem incorporating various contexts. This paper offers several insights on improving app use in the era of mobile Internet. In contrast to PC Internet, in addition to hedonic and utilitarian states, we uncover a novel social state that is prevalent but transient, indicating mobile users have a fundamental need for frequent light-social activities. Thus, one strategy to increase use is to enrich an app’s social components, specifically on light-social functionalities. In addition, our results show that app use interdependence is the strongest under the hedonic state. This indicates the strategic value of boosting current app use is the highest in the hedonic state, providing guidance to companies on better spending of their limited marketing resources. Furthermore, we show that these internal states are interdependent of each other and their dynamic is affected by contextual factors that are distinct in the mobile context. Thus, companies should put more weight on tailoring their engagement strategies under different contexts in the ear of mobile Internet than the traditional PC context.
由于移动应用程序使用的普遍性和强烈的情境依赖性,互联网公司正在进行跨行业扩张的竞赛,以建立一个融合各种情境的无缝生态系统。本文提出了在移动互联网时代提高应用程序使用的几点见解。与PC互联网相比,除了享乐主义和功利主义状态外,我们还发现了一种普遍但短暂的新型社会状态,这表明移动用户对频繁的轻度社交活动有着根本的需求。因此,提高使用率的一个策略是丰富应用的社交组件,特别是轻社交功能。此外,我们的研究结果表明,在享乐状态下,应用程序使用的相互依赖性最强。这表明,在享乐状态下,提高当前应用使用率的战略价值是最高的,这为公司更好地利用有限的营销资源提供了指导。此外,我们表明这些内部状态是相互依存的,它们的动态受到移动环境中不同的上下文因素的影响。因此,比起传统的PC环境,企业应该更加重视在移动互联网时代的不同环境下定制他们的参与策略。
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引用次数: 5
Exploring the Behavioral Drivers of Review Valence: The Direct and Indirect Effects of Multiple Psychological Distances. 回顾效价的行为驱动因素探讨:多重心理距离的直接和间接影响。
Pub Date : 2018-10-25 DOI: 10.1108/IJCHM-04-2017-0239
Panagiotis Stamolampros, Nikolaos Korfiatis
PurposeAlthough the literature has established the effect of online reviews on customer purchase intentions, the influence of psychological factors on online ratings is overlooked. This paper aims to examine these factors under the perspective of construal level theory (CLT).Design/methodology/approachUsing review data from TripAdvisor and Booking.com, the authors study three dimensions of psychological distances (temporal, spatial and social) and their direct and interaction effects on review valence, using regression analysis. The authors examine the effect of these distances on the information content of online reviews using a novel bag-of-words model to assess its concreteness.FindingsTemporal distance and spatial distance have positive direct effects on review valence. Social distance, on the other hand, has a negative direct effect. However, its interaction with the other two distances has a positive effect, suggesting that consumers tend to “zoom-out” to less concrete things in their ratings.Practical implicationsThe findings provide implications for the interpretation of review ratings by the service providers and their information content.Originality/valueThis study extends the CLT and electronic word-of-mouth literature by jointly exploring the effect of all three psychological distances that are applicable in post-purchase evaluations. Methodologically, it provides a novel application of the bag-of-words model in evaluating the concreteness of online reviews.
目的虽然文献建立了网上评论对顾客购买意愿的影响,但忽略了心理因素对网上评分的影响。本文旨在从解释水平理论的视角来考察这些因素。设计/方法/方法利用TripAdvisor和Booking.com的评论数据,作者通过回归分析研究了心理距离的三个维度(时间、空间和社会)及其对评论效价的直接和交互影响。作者使用一种新颖的词袋模型来评估其具体程度,研究了这些距离对在线评论信息内容的影响。研究发现,时间距离和空间距离对复习效价有直接正向影响。另一方面,社交距离则有直接的负面影响。然而,它与其他两个距离的相互作用有积极的影响,这表明消费者倾向于在他们的评级中“缩小”到不太具体的东西。实际意义研究结果为服务提供者及其信息内容对评论评级的解释提供了启示。原创性/价值本研究通过共同探索三种心理距离对购后评价的影响,扩展了CLT和电子口碑文献。在方法上,它提供了词袋模型在评估在线评论的具体性方面的新应用。
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引用次数: 27
Perceived Intelligence and Long-Term Stigmatization of Dirty Workers 感知智力和对肮脏工人的长期污名化
Pub Date : 2018-10-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3269225
M. Terskova, E. Agadullina
Expectations of people with high and low intelligence differ considerably. High intelligence is associated with several desirable social outcomes, while low intelligence is associated with low social status and poverty. We assumed that attributing high intelligence to a person could lead to a more positive evaluation of them and, as a result, less negative attitudes toward them. In the experimental study (N = 781) we investigated how levels of perceived intelligence impact the long-term stigmatization of dirty workers. The results show that perceived high intelligence of dirty workers decreases long-term stigmatization towards them, but these findings relate only to people performing moral dirty work. Implicit theories about intelligence were controlled as a covariate and had no significant effect. Results are discussed in terms of the positive effect of perceived high intelligence on everyday perception. Limitations and future directions are also discussed.
人们对高智商和低智商的期望值差别很大。高智商与一些理想的社会结果有关,而低智商与低社会地位和贫困有关。我们认为,将高智商归因于一个人可能会导致对他们的更积极的评价,从而减少对他们的消极态度。在实验研究(N = 781)中,我们调查了感知智力水平如何影响脏工人的长期污名化。研究结果表明,高智商的肮脏工人减少了对他们的长期污名化,但这些发现只与从事道德肮脏工作的人有关。关于智力的内隐理论被控制为协变量,没有显著影响。研究结果讨论了高智商对日常感知的积极影响。并讨论了局限性和未来的发展方向。
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引用次数: 0
Scratch My Back and I’ll Scratch Yours: The Impact of the Interaction Between User Effort and Recommendation Agent Effort on Perceived Recommendation Agent Quality 挠我的背,我也会挠你的背:用户努力和推荐代理努力之间的交互对感知推荐代理质量的影响
Pub Date : 2018-10-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3258053
Dimitrios Tsekouras, Ting Li, I. Benbasat
Product recommendation agents (RAs) assist online firms to adapt their suggested offers to users’ preferences, there by lowering consumers’ decision effort and improving their decision accuracy. The abundance of product choices available on the internet has made the need for RAs essential mainly due to the increased decision effort by consumers associated with making a selection. The concept of effort has been central in decision-making, yet evidence on the role of effort has been contradictory on whether it should be regarded merely as a cost for the user or as a benefit as well since higher effort improves the odds of a better decision. Building on Social Exchange theory, we suggest that interactions between users and RAs are driven by the concepts of perceived interdependence and reciprocity. We suggest that perceived user effort decreases, whereas RA effort increases, perceived RA quality. We further posit that users evaluate RAs based on their own individual effort expended in relation to their perceptions of the effort that the RA has put into the process of generating recommendations. The evidence from two experimental studies and an integrative data analysis suggests that the negative effect of user effort on RA quality is reduced when users perceive greater RA effort. Such an effect is negatively moderated by user familiarity. Our findings enrich the understanding of the conflicting role of user effort in decision-making and offer important insights into how online firms can improve the utilization of their RAs.
产品推荐代理(RAs)通过降低消费者的决策努力和提高他们的决策准确性,帮助在线公司根据用户的偏好调整他们的建议报价。互联网上有丰富的产品选择,这使得对RAs的需求变得必不可少,这主要是因为消费者在做出选择时需要做出更多的决策。努力的概念一直是决策的核心,然而,关于努力的作用的证据一直是矛盾的,即它是否应该仅仅被视为用户的成本,还是作为一种利益,因为更高的努力提高了做出更好决策的可能性。基于社会交换理论,我们认为用户和服务提供者之间的互动是由感知到的相互依赖和互惠概念驱动的。我们建议感知到的用户努力减少,而RA努力增加,感知到的RA质量。我们进一步假设,用户评估RA是基于他们自己的个人努力,以及他们对RA在生成建议过程中投入的努力的看法。来自两项实验研究和综合数据分析的证据表明,当用户感知到更大的RA努力时,用户努力对RA质量的负面影响就会减少。用户熟悉度对这种效果起到负向调节作用。我们的研究结果丰富了对用户努力在决策中的冲突作用的理解,并为在线公司如何提高其RAs的利用率提供了重要的见解。
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引用次数: 2
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Cognitive Social Science eJournal
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