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The Cost of Overconfidence in Public Information 对公共信息过度自信的代价
Pub Date : 2021-09-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2784686
Soosung Hwang, Youngha Cho, Sanha Noh
We investigate the effects of investor overconfidence in public information on cross-sectional asset returns. The results show that investors in the US equity market are overconfident about public signals for mature firms that are relatively easy to price—old, large, and dividend-paying firms, value firms, and firms with a higher proportion of tangible assets, little external financing, and low sales growth. However, the effects of the overconfidence on cross-sectional stock returns are reversed quickly and comprise more than half of the short-term return reversals. The risk-adjusted cost of being overconfident about the noisy public signals, measured by return reversals of hedge portfolios formed on unexpected responses, is over 1.1% per month in the first month after portfolio formation, and is still significant despite the active arbitrage trading in the 2000s.
我们研究了投资者对公共信息的过度自信对横断面资产收益的影响。结果表明,美国股票市场的投资者对成熟公司的公开信号过于自信,这些公司相对容易对老牌、大型和支付股息的公司、价值型公司和有形资产比例较高、外部融资较少、销售增长较低的公司进行定价。然而,过度自信对横截面股票收益的影响很快被逆转,占短期收益逆转的一半以上。在投资组合形成后的第一个月,对嘈杂的公共信号过于自信的风险调整成本(通过对意外反应形成的对冲投资组合的回报逆转来衡量)每月超过1.1%,尽管本世纪头十年套利交易活跃,但这一成本仍然很高。
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引用次数: 1
The Compliance Consequences of Fault Assignment in Sanctions 制裁中过错分配的合规后果
Pub Date : 2021-06-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2897159
Matthew Sooy
Regulators rely heavily on ‘no-fault’ settlements in their enforcement, where targets avoid costly litigation by accepting sanctions without admitting or denying fault. Considerable public debate surrounds the issue but prior research has typically focused on financial dimensions of sanctions such as the magnitude of fines. I conduct an economic experiment where individuals face a costly compliance choice in the presence of sanctions that may either be greater than or less than the benefits of violating, and may also require admission of fault. I observe that compliance is less dependent on the magnitude of fines when fault is assigned in enforcement. I also observe that fault-based compliance is of higher quality. In supplemental analysis, I confirm that participants respond to fault incrementally to economic dimensions of sanctions and observe that participants incorrectly expect that sanction strength, rather than sanction magnitude, will foster greater compliance quality.
监管机构在执法过程中严重依赖“无过错”和解协议,即目标企业通过接受制裁而不承认或否认过错来避免昂贵的诉讼。围绕这一问题展开了大量的公开辩论,但之前的研究通常侧重于制裁的财务层面,比如罚款的数额。我进行了一项经济实验,在制裁存在的情况下,个人面临着代价高昂的合规选择,这些制裁可能大于或小于违规的好处,而且可能还需要承认错误。我观察到,当在执法中被认定有过错时,合规对罚款数额的依赖程度较低。我还观察到基于错误的遵从性具有更高的质量。在补充分析中,我证实,参与者对制裁的经济层面的错误反应是渐进的,并观察到参与者错误地认为制裁力度,而不是制裁幅度,将促进更高的遵守质量。
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引用次数: 0
Examining the Link Between Organizational Citizenship Behavior and Work Performance of Employees in the Private Schools, Mediated by Workplace Environment 工作环境对民办学校员工组织公民行为与工作绩效的影响研究
Pub Date : 2021-06-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3867029
Damianus Abun, G. J. Q. Basilio, Theogenia Magallanes, M. Encarnacion, Micah Sallong
The study aimed to determine the organizational citizenship behaviour, work performance and work environment; the correlation between organizational citizenship behaviour and work performance; the correlation between work environment and organizational citizenship behaviour and work performance. Theories were discussed based on the literature and a conceptual framework was established. The study used the descriptive correlational research design and questionnaires were used to gather the data. The population of the study was all employees of the Divine Word Colleges in the Ilocos region, a total of 181 employees. The study found that organizational citizenship, the work performance of employees and the work environment is high and there is a significant correlation between organizational citizenship behaviour and work performance and there is a correlation between work environment and organizational citizenship behaviour and work performance. Therefore, the hypothesis of the study is accepted.
本研究旨在确定组织公民行为、工作绩效和工作环境;组织公民行为与工作绩效的相关关系工作环境与组织公民行为、工作绩效的关系。在文献基础上进行理论探讨,建立概念框架。本研究采用描述性相关研究设计,采用问卷调查法收集资料。研究对象为伊洛科斯地区圣言学院的181名员工。研究发现,组织公民、员工的工作绩效和工作环境之间存在显著的相关关系,组织公民行为与工作绩效之间存在显著的相关关系,工作环境与组织公民行为与工作绩效之间存在相关关系。因此,本研究的假设被接受。
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引用次数: 4
An Ordinal Theory of Risk and Correlation Aversion 风险与相关厌恶的序数理论
Pub Date : 2021-03-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3267831
W. Chiu
This paper sets out an analytical framework for decision-making under risk that assumes only utility-representable preferences but is capable of replicating and extending important results obtained in the EU framework. Focusing on decision problems where attitudes towards risk and correlation play an essential role, we show that characterizing attitudes towards risk and correlation in terms of an ordinal utility function of decision parameters enables the extension of existing results obtained in the EU framework on optimal decisions in their relation to how the endogenous and non-financial background risks are correlated to a setting assuming only utility-representable preferences.
本文提出了一个风险下决策的分析框架,该框架仅假设效用可代表的偏好,但能够复制和扩展在欧盟框架中获得的重要结果。关注对风险的态度和相关性发挥重要作用的决策问题,我们表明,根据决策参数的有序效用函数来表征对风险和相关性的态度,可以扩展在欧盟框架中获得的关于最优决策的现有结果,即内生和非金融背景风险如何与仅假设效用可表征偏好的设置相关。
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引用次数: 0
Persuasion Under Costly Learning 昂贵学习下的说服
Pub Date : 2020-10-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3188302
Dong Wei
Abstract A Sender (seller) tries to persuade a rationally inattentive Receiver (buyer) to take a particular action (e.g., buying). Learning is costly for the Receiver who can choose to process strictly less information than what the sender provides. In a binary-action binary-state model, we show that optimal disclosure involves information distortion, but to a lesser extent than the case without learning costs; meanwhile, the Receiver processes less information than what he would under full disclosure. We also find that the Receiver can leverage his potential inattention to attain a higher equilibrium payoff than the perfectly attentive case. While the Sender is always worse off when facing a less attentive Receiver, the amount of information processed in equilibrium varies with learning costs in a non-monotone fashion.
发送者(卖方)试图说服理性的不专心的接收者(买方)采取特定的行动(如购买)。对于接收者来说,学习是昂贵的,他们可以选择严格地处理比发送者提供的更少的信息。在二元行为二元状态模型中,我们发现最优披露涉及信息失真,但其程度低于没有学习成本的情况;与此同时,接收方处理的信息比完全披露情况下处理的信息要少。我们还发现,接收者可以利用他潜在的不注意来获得比完全注意情况下更高的均衡收益。当面对一个不那么专注的接收者时,发送者的情况总是更糟,但在均衡状态下处理的信息量会随着学习成本的变化而非单调地变化。
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引用次数: 23
I’m in a Hurry, I Don’t Want to Know! Strategic Ignorance Under Time Pressure 我赶时间,我不想知道!时间压力下的战略无知
Pub Date : 2020-09-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3699289
Johannes Jarke-Neuert, J. Lohse
Information avoidance is common when privately beneficial choices have uncertain and potentially adverse effects on others. A dominant theory holds that such "strategic ignorance" allows decision makers to circumvent inner moral conflict while acting self-servingly. In extension of this theory, we hypothesize that time pressure elevates the prevalence of strategic ignorance. We conduct a laboratory experiment with resolvable payoff uncertainty to test this hypothesis. We find that time pressure indeed significantly increases the incidence of information avoidance. As a result, self-serving choices are more common than in a baseline without time pressure. We empirically explore several potential interpretations of this main finding. First, in a control condition, in which payoffs are fully transparent, time pressure has no direct effect on self-serving behavior. This speaks against a general tendency to act more self-servingly or fairly under time pressure. Second, a follow-up study shows that information avoidance under time pressure is attributable to conflict avoidance, rather than providing decision makers with a convenient excuse for not becoming informed. We discuss these observations in the context of a recent body of literature on the cognitive underpinnings of prosocial behavior and argue that they have significant implications for information-based approaches to public policy. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).
当对个人有利的选择对他人有不确定的和潜在的不利影响时,信息回避是常见的。一种占主导地位的理论认为,这种“战略无知”允许决策者在采取自私行为的同时规避内心的道德冲突。在这一理论的延伸,我们假设时间压力提高了战略无知的普遍性。我们进行了一个具有可解决的收益不确定性的实验室实验来验证这一假设。我们发现,时间压力确实显著增加了信息回避的发生率。因此,比起没有时间压力的基线,自我服务的选择更常见。我们从经验上探讨了对这一主要发现的几种可能的解释。首先,在报酬完全透明的控制条件下,时间压力对自利行为没有直接影响。这与在时间压力下表现得更自私或更公平的普遍趋势背道而驰。其次,一项后续研究表明,时间压力下的信息回避是由于冲突回避,而不是为决策者提供不知情的方便借口。我们在最近一篇关于亲社会行为认知基础的文献中讨论了这些观察结果,并认为它们对基于信息的公共政策方法具有重要意义。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA,版权所有)。
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引用次数: 4
An fMRI Investigation of the Neurocognitive Processing of Strategies and Measures 策略与措施神经认知加工的fMRI研究
Pub Date : 2020-07-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3659646
Paul Black, C. Kirwan, Thomas O. Meservy, W. B. Tayler, Jeffrey O. Williams
A central feature of accounting is the use of measures to represent key elements of performance across multiple strategic objectives. In this study, we directly examine the neural processing of measures and strategic objectives. Our findings suggest that the brain processes measures (which are more concrete) and strategies (which are more abstract) differently. Consistent with context availability theory, we find a pattern of results suggesting that measures are processed more readily than strategies. We further find evidence suggesting that this difference in processing is a key determinant of surrogation, the tendency for individuals to treat measures as though they are the strategic objectives they represent as opposed to imperfect representations of those strategic objectives. Specifically, we find that greater overall fMRI activation in brain regions that differentially process measures and strategies is associated with less surrogation.
会计的一个核心特征是使用度量来表示跨多个战略目标的绩效的关键要素。在本研究中,我们直接考察了措施和战略目标的神经加工。我们的研究结果表明,大脑处理措施(更具体)和策略(更抽象)的方式不同。与上下文可得性理论一致,我们发现了一种结果模式,表明措施比策略更容易被处理。我们进一步发现证据表明,这种处理上的差异是替代的关键决定因素,个体倾向于将措施视为他们所代表的战略目标,而不是那些战略目标的不完美表征。具体地说,我们发现在处理不同措施和策略的大脑区域中,更大的整体fMRI激活与较少的替代相关。
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引用次数: 1
Improving the Statistical Power and Reliability of Research Using Amazon Mechanical Turk 使用Amazon Mechanical Turk提高研究的统计能力和可靠性
Pub Date : 2020-07-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2924876
Jeremiah W. Bentley
Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) is an increasingly popular source of experimental participants due to its convenience and low cost (relative to traditional laboratories). However, MTurk presents challenges related to statistical power and reliability. These challenges are not unique to MTurk, but are more prevalent than in research conducted with other participant pools. In this paper I discuss several reasons why research conducted with MTurk may face additional power and reliability challenges. I then present suggestions for dealing with these challenges, taking advantage of the comparative strengths of MTurk. The discussion should be of interest to PhD students and other researchers considering using MTurk or other online platforms as a source of experimental participants as well as to reviewers and editors who are considering quality control standards for research conducted with this participant pool.
Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk)由于其便利性和低成本(相对于传统实验室)而越来越受到实验参与者的欢迎。然而,MTurk提出了与统计能力和可靠性相关的挑战。这些挑战并不是MTurk独有的,但与其他参与者进行的研究相比,这些挑战更为普遍。在本文中,我讨论了为什么与MTurk进行的研究可能面临额外的功率和可靠性挑战的几个原因。然后,我将利用MTurk的相对优势,提出应对这些挑战的建议。博士生和其他考虑使用MTurk或其他在线平台作为实验参与者来源的研究人员,以及正在考虑使用该参与者库进行研究的质量控制标准的审稿人和编辑,应该对讨论感兴趣。
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引用次数: 17
How time flies! 时间过得真快!
Pub Date : 2020-06-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3285834
Xiu Chen, Xiaojian Zhao
The paper points out a potential gap between intertemporal choices and time preference: The observed intertemporal decisions could be partly driven by a biased perception of time, and thus may not completely reveal the actual time preference. To test this conjecture, we explore the relationship between time perception and intertemporal choices by conducting a laboratory experiment, in which cognitive load is used as an instrument to manipulate time perception. We establish that the perceived time lengths for subjects with high cognitive load are shorter than those with low load. We also observe a correlation between an individual's time overestimation and his apparent impatience. Our study suggests that time perception indeed mediates part of the cognitive load's effect on intertemporal choices, calling for improving suboptimal time-related decisions as a result of potentially biased perception of how time flies.
本文指出了跨期选择和时间偏好之间的潜在差距:观察到的跨期决策可能部分是由时间偏见感知驱动的,因此可能无法完全揭示实际的时间偏好。为了验证这一猜想,我们通过一项实验室实验探讨了时间感知与跨期选择之间的关系,在实验中,认知负荷被用作操纵时间感知的工具。结果表明,高认知负荷受试者的感知时间长度比低认知负荷受试者短。我们还观察到一个人对时间的高估和他明显的不耐烦之间的相关性。我们的研究表明,时间感知确实介导了认知负荷对跨期选择的部分影响,这就要求改善由于对时间流逝的潜在偏见而导致的次优时间相关决策。
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引用次数: 1
How Choice Complexity in Liberalized Markets Hurts the Demand for Green Electricity 自由化市场的选择复杂性如何损害绿色电力需求
Pub Date : 2020-06-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3628373
Rebekka Bärenbold, Manuel Grieder, R. Schubert
Many countries have liberalized their residential electricity markets or are considering to do so. Liberalization provides consumers with more freedom of choice but also leads to higher choice complexity as consumers face a much larger number of different electricity contracts to choose from. We hypothesize that consumers react to this increased choice complexity in liberalized markets by applying simplified decision strategies that allow them to reduce cognitive effort. In particular, we predict that with increasing size of choice sets, consumers focus more on simple price attributes of electricity contracts and less on the relatively complex environmental attributes, leading to a decrease in the demand for green electricity. In two online experiments conducted in a representative (n=610) and a student sample (n=1,212) in Switzerland, we find that indeed when faced with a larger choice set participants focus more on prices and choose cheaper electricity contracts containing less renewable and more conventional energy than when faced with a smaller choice set. In addition, we also find evidence that a tax on conventional energy is a more effective policy instrument for shifting demand towards renewables than behavioral instruments in the form of social norm interventions. Our results suggest that a liberalization of the household electricity market has to be carefully managed such that consumers are not overwhelmed and do not shift their demand to cheaper but less environmentally-friendly energy sources.
许多国家已经或正在考虑放开其住宅电力市场。自由化为消费者提供了更多的选择自由,但也导致了更高的选择复杂性,因为消费者面临着大量不同的电力合同可供选择。我们假设,在自由化市场中,消费者对这种增加的选择复杂性的反应是采用简化的决策策略,使他们能够减少认知努力。特别是,我们预测,随着选择集规模的增大,消费者更关注简单的电力合同价格属性,而较少关注相对复杂的环境属性,从而导致绿色电力需求的下降。在瑞士的代表性样本(n=610)和学生样本(n= 1212)中进行的两项在线实验中,我们发现,当面对较大的选择集时,参与者确实更关注价格,并选择包含较少可再生能源和更多传统能源的更便宜的电力合同,而不是面对较小的选择集。此外,我们还发现有证据表明,与社会规范干预形式的行为工具相比,对传统能源征税是一种更有效的政策工具,可以将需求转向可再生能源。我们的研究结果表明,家庭电力市场的自由化必须谨慎管理,这样消费者就不会不知所措,也不会将他们的需求转向更便宜但不太环保的能源。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Cognitive Social Science eJournal
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