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‘On the Road Again’: A 118 Country Panel Analysis of Gasoline and Diesel Demand “再次上路”:118个国家对汽油和柴油需求的面板分析
Pub Date : 2020-03-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3552662
Brantley Liddle, H. Huntington
Abstract The current paper contributes to the literature on the relationship between economic growth, fuel prices, and the demand for gasoline and diesel within the transportation sector by assembling a wide panel dataset of fuel consumption and prices for 35 OECD and 83 Non-OECD countries. The unbalanced data spans 1978–2016, with the full 39 years of data for 36 countries. In addition, our dynamic panel estimates address nonstationarity, heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence. The OECD panel price elasticity for gasoline is around −0.7 or about three times that for the non-OECD panel; whereas, the OECD price elasticity for diesel is only modestly larger (in absolute terms) than the non-OECD elasticity (−0.3 and −0.2, respectively). For gasoline, the non-OECD GDP elasticity is around 1.0 or about twice that for OECD countries. For the OECD panel, the diesel GDP elasticity is about three times that of the OECD GDP elasticity for gasoline; whereas, for the non-OECD panel, the two GDP elasticities (for gasoline and diesel) are about the same. For non-OECD countries, subpanels based on geography and income produced mostly similar results. We found no evidence of GDP or price asymmetric effects for the 1978–2016 period. Lastly, the large (at least for the OECD panel) and statistically significant transportation price elasticities reported here provide stark contrast to the economy-wide energy price elasticities calculated in Liddle and Huntington (2020a).
本论文通过收集35个经合组织国家和83个非经合组织国家的燃料消耗和价格的广泛面板数据集,对经济增长、燃料价格和运输部门汽油和柴油需求之间的关系做出了贡献。不平衡数据涵盖1978年至2016年,36个国家的39年数据。此外,我们的动态面板估计解决了非平稳性、异质性和横截面依赖性。经合组织小组的汽油价格弹性约为- 0.7,约是非经合组织小组的三倍;然而,经合组织国家的柴油价格弹性仅略大于非经合组织国家的价格弹性(分别为- 0.3和- 0.2)。就汽油而言,非经合组织国家的GDP弹性约为1.0,约为经合组织国家的两倍。对于经合组织小组来说,柴油的GDP弹性大约是经合组织汽油GDP弹性的三倍;然而,对于非经合组织小组来说,两种GDP弹性(汽油和柴油)大致相同。对于非经合发组织国家,基于地理和收入的分组得出的结果基本相似。我们没有发现1978-2016年期间GDP或价格不对称效应的证据。最后,这里报告的运输价格弹性大(至少对经合组织小组来说)和统计上显著的运输价格弹性与里德尔和亨廷顿(2020a)计算的经济范围内的能源价格弹性形成鲜明对比。
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引用次数: 14
Sustainable Development and Challenges of Organic Farming Practices 可持续发展和有机农业实践的挑战
Pub Date : 2020-03-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3551965
Dr. G. Nedumaran, Manida M
The aim of the paper is to evaluate the association of organic farming to strengthen the sustainability of Organic agriculture. Organic agriculture shows abundant benefits, as it reduces many of the environmental impacts of conventional agriculture, it can increase efficiency in small farmers’ fields, and it reduces reliance on costly external inputs, and guarantees price premiums for organic products. Organic farmers also profit from farmer cooperative and the formation of social networks, which enhances good access to instruction, credit and welfare services. This paper brings out how the function of organic farming contributes for the sustainable practices and improving environment conservation, animal welfare, and product quality.
本文的目的是评估有机农业的关联,以加强有机农业的可持续性。有机农业显示出丰富的效益,因为它减少了传统农业的许多环境影响,它可以提高小农田地的效率,它减少了对昂贵的外部投入的依赖,并保证了有机产品的溢价。有机农民也从农民合作社和社会网络的形成中获利,这增加了获得教育、信贷和福利服务的机会。本文介绍了有机农业的功能如何有助于可持续实践和改善环境保护,动物福利和产品质量。
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引用次数: 3
Thinking Strategically About Climate Litigation 对气候诉讼的战略思考
Pub Date : 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3564313
Ben Batros, Tessa Khan
Efforts to drive action on climate change are increasingly turning to courts. Climate litigation is nothing new, but there has been a recent surge of cases with strategic ambitions. This use of litigation to achieve strategic goals mirrors a long history of human rights practitioners using litigation to achieve policy change. While climate litigators are recognizing the relevance of substantive human rights arguments to climate change, they have paid limited attention to how the human rights community has used litigation. This is a missed opportunity. The human rights community has spent decades debating the role of strategic litigation in effecting lasting change, reflecting on the role of strategic litigation and its relationship with other forms of advocacy and activism, and identifying how to minimise the risks of litigation and maximise its impact. There is potential for climate litigators to use and build on the hard-won lessons that human rights advocates have learned about how to use litigation most effectively and strategically when facing problems with deep social, economic and political roots. This paper outlines those links: it identifies the emergence of the next generation of climate litigation involving cases with strategic ambition; outlines the debates on strategic litigation within the human rights community; and considers how the lessons from those debates apply to climate litigation.
推动气候变化行动的努力越来越多地转向法院。气候诉讼并不是什么新鲜事,但最近出现了大量具有战略野心的案件。这种利用诉讼实现战略目标的做法反映了人权工作者利用诉讼实现政策变革的悠久历史。虽然气候诉讼律师认识到实质性人权论点与气候变化的相关性,但他们对人权界如何利用诉讼的关注有限。这是一个错失的机会。几十年来,人权界一直在辩论战略诉讼在实现持久变革中的作用,反思战略诉讼的作用及其与其他形式的倡导和行动主义的关系,并确定如何将诉讼风险降至最低,并将其影响最大化。人权倡导者在面对具有深刻社会、经济和政治根源的问题时,如何最有效、最具战略意义地利用诉讼,气候诉讼律师有可能利用并借鉴来之不易的经验教训。本文概述了这些联系:它确定了涉及具有战略野心的案件的下一代气候诉讼的出现;概述人权界关于战略诉讼的辩论;并考虑了这些辩论的经验教训如何适用于气候诉讼。
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引用次数: 0
El salario de mercado ¿un precio mentiroso? Estimación del costo de oportunidad del trabajo. Estudio de caso Bolivia (Market Wage of Labor a Poor Indicator? Measuring the Social Opportunity. Cost of Labor in Bolivia) 市场工资是一个虚假的价格?对工作机会成本的估计。玻利维亚案例研究(劳动力市场工资是一个贫穷指标?衡量社会机会。玻利维亚的劳动力成本)
Pub Date : 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3561257
R. Castro, C. Acosta
Spanish Abstract: Este artículo presenta una metodología general, metodologías específicas y un estudio de caso para estimar el costo de oportunidad del trabajo para diferentes segmentos del mercado laboral en Bolivia. El análisis económico incluye las imperfecciones del mercado laboral, los patrones migratorios y la dualidad del mercado laboral (formal e informal). Usando información de salarios de las encuestas de hogares a nivel de departamento, este artículo provee evidencia de que el salario de mercado dista de ser una buena medida de costo de oportunidad económico. Específicamente, los resultados muestran que el salario de mercado es superior al costo de oportunidad por cada unidad adicional empleada de trabajo en el sector formal independiente del área y del nivel de calificación. English Abstract: This article presents a general methodology, specific methodologies, and a case study to estimate the opportunity cost of labor for different segments of the labor market in Bolivia. The economic analysis considers the labor market imperfections, migratory patterns, and duality (formal and informal). Using salary information from household surveys at the department level, this article also provides evidence that market wages are far from being good measures of economic opportunity costs. Specifically, results show that the market wages are higher than the opportunity cost for each unit employed of labor in the formal labor market regardless of area and skill level.
本文提出了一个一般的方法,具体的方法和案例研究,以估计玻利维亚劳动力市场不同部分的工作机会成本。经济分析包括劳动力市场的不完善、移民模式和劳动力市场的二元性(正式和非正式)。本文利用来自部门层面家庭调查的工资信息,提供证据表明,市场工资远不是衡量经济机会成本的一个很好的指标。本研究的目的是确定在正规部门工作的每一个额外单位的劳动力的市场工资和机会成本之间的关系。英文摘要:本文介绍了估算玻利维亚劳动力市场不同部门劳动力机会成本的一般方法、具体方法和案例研究。经济分析考虑到劳动力市场的不完善、移民模式和二元性(正式和非正式)。本文还利用部门一级家庭调查的工资资料,提供证据表明,市场工资远不是经济机会成本的良好衡量标准。具体地说,结果表明,正规劳动力市场中每个就业单位的市场工资高于机会成本,不论其面积和技能水平如何。
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引用次数: 0
Demand Side Management for the Production of Energy in the Reference of India 印度参考资料中能源生产的需求侧管理
Pub Date : 2020-02-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3551003
Shashwat Dwivedi, Dr. Anusuya Yadav, Dr. Rajesh Tyagi
Basically, using resources wisely is the first stage to ensure efficient energy efficiency. It's hard for all users to provide this in a system in which everyone is consuming energy. Furthermore, this situation needs to be managed. The smart grids around the world are really the leading management system for such circumstances. By screening and controlling energy consumption and production plants, effective management of the flow of energy can be maintained. Consumers, manufacturing centers and electrical devices in smart grids connect with each other, thus enabling more efficient operation of the power system. Thus, it becomes possible to very successfully evolve the consumption values to the potential energy production. Not only is the energy demands of customers minimized to lower levels in the established system, but all power sources (renewable and power plants) are also ensured to be managed. This study therefore proposes using smart grids in India to use energy effectively and to manage power consumption and production. Demand Side Management or DSM as popularly called has played an essential role in the latest five-year projects in the Indian energy scenario. Over the years, power production and development of the transmission and distribution system have seen incremental generation manifold. Nevertheless, efficient use of capacity in the overall sense involves controlling the demand for proper use of power as well. More likely, when the former is considerably reduced, it will also be present, allowing for the process to be handled effectively instead of being added to facilities. In addition, a further important step in DSM is to minimize losses in terms of power and energy or, in other words, to improve efficiency in the load related delivery system. Such factors have been understood by the Indian power sector, projected accrual advantages and steps have been implemented to achieve things.
从根本上说,合理利用资源是确保能源效率的第一步。在一个每个人都在消耗能源的系统中,很难让所有用户提供这些。此外,这种情况需要加以管理。世界各地的智能电网确实是这种情况下的领先管理系统。通过筛选和控制能源消耗和生产工厂,可以保持对能源流动的有效管理。智能电网中的消费者、制造中心和电气设备相互连接,从而使电力系统更有效地运行。因此,可以非常成功地将消耗值演变为潜在的能源生产。在已建立的系统中,不仅将客户的能源需求降至最低水平,而且还确保对所有能源(可再生能源和发电厂)进行管理。因此,这项研究建议在印度使用智能电网来有效地利用能源,并管理电力消耗和生产。需求侧管理(DSM)在印度能源规划的最近五年项目中发挥了至关重要的作用。多年来,输配电系统的电力生产和发展出现了增量式的发电。然而,总体意义上的有效利用能力也包括控制对适当使用电力的需求。更有可能的是,当前者大大减少时,它也将存在,从而使该过程得到有效处理,而不是增加到设施中。此外,DSM的另一个重要步骤是尽量减少电力和能源的损失,换句话说,提高与负载相关的输送系统的效率。印度电力部门已经了解了这些因素,已经实施了预期的累积优势和实现目标的步骤。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Energy Costs on Industrial Performance: Identifying Price and Quantity Effects in the Aluminum Industry Using a Data Envelopment Analysis Approach 能源成本对工业绩效的影响:用数据包络分析方法识别铝工业的价格和数量效应
Pub Date : 2020-02-17 DOI: 10.21314/JEM.2020.214
Nadia Kpondjo, Frédéric Lantz, A. Créti, Christian Pham Van Cang
We build a frontier function model with technical and cost efficiency measures to assess the impact of energy costs on competitiveness in the aluminum industry, a heavy energy consumer, by identifying what may be attributed to price and quantity effects. First, we estimate a data envelopment analysis model and measure the efficiency scores using the Farrell and Tone approaches. Then, we explain efficiency scores with a set of environmental factors using a truncated regression model, applying the double-bootstrap method proposed by Simar and Wilson in 2007. By considering the Tone efficiency scores, we highlight the fact that efficiencies are differentiated depending on geographic region and production technologies. This could explain the loss of competitiveness observed in certain industrial units in recent years. We also highlight other factors that impact cost efficiency, such as global market share, multinational status and the exchange rate with respect to the dollar. These factors have a significant, positive effect on relative efficiency in terms of aluminum smelter costs. Our results provide a better understanding of the reasons for the changes in this industry, which has been marked by major technological and economic shifts, and allow us to assess the role of energy in these changes.
我们建立了一个前沿函数模型,采用技术和成本效率措施来评估能源成本对铝行业竞争力的影响,铝行业是一个能源消耗大户,通过确定价格和数量效应可能导致的影响。首先,我们估计了一个数据包络分析模型,并使用Farrell和Tone方法测量效率得分。然后,我们采用Simar和Wilson(2007)提出的双bootstrap方法,使用截断回归模型解释了一组环境因素对效率得分的影响。通过考虑Tone效率得分,我们强调了效率因地理区域和生产技术而有所差异的事实。这可以解释近年来某些工业单位竞争力下降的原因。我们还强调了影响成本效率的其他因素,如全球市场份额、跨国地位和相对于美元的汇率。这些因素对铝冶炼厂成本方面的相对效率有显著的积极影响。我们的研究结果更好地理解了这个行业变化的原因,这个行业以重大的技术和经济转变为标志,并使我们能够评估能源在这些变化中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling Uncertainty in Large Natural Resource Allocation Problems 大型自然资源配置问题的不确定性建模
Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9159
Y. Cai, J. Steinbuks, K. Judd, J. Jägermeyr, T. Hertel
The productivity of the world's natural resources is critically dependent on a variety of highly uncertain factors, which obscure individual investors and governments that seek to make long-term, sometimes irreversible investments in their exploration and utilization. These dynamic considerations are poorly represented in disaggregated resource models, as incorporating uncertainty into large-dimensional problems presents a challenging computational task. This study introduces a novel numerical method to solve large-scale dynamic stochastic natural resource allocation problems that cannot be addressed by conventional methods. The method is illustrated with an application focusing on the allocation of global land resource use under stochastic crop yields due to adverse climate impacts and limits on further technological progress. For the same model parameters, the range of land conversion is considerably smaller for the dynamic stochastic model as compared to deterministic scenario analysis. The scenario analysis can thus significantly overstate the magnitude of expected land conversion under uncertain crop yields.
世界自然资源的生产率严重依赖于各种高度不确定的因素,这些因素使寻求在勘探和利用方面进行长期、有时是不可逆转投资的个人投资者和政府感到困惑。这些动态考虑在分解资源模型中表现得很差,因为将不确定性纳入大维度问题是一项具有挑战性的计算任务。本文提出了一种新的数值方法来解决传统方法无法解决的大规模动态随机自然资源配置问题。该方法以一个应用为例进行了说明,该应用侧重于由于不利的气候影响和进一步技术进步的限制而导致的随机作物产量下的全球土地资源利用分配。在相同的模型参数下,动态随机模型的土地转换范围明显小于确定性情景分析。因此,在作物产量不确定的情况下,情景分析可能会大大夸大预期的土地转换率。
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引用次数: 4
Pricing commodity swing options 商品波动期权定价
Pub Date : 2020-01-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3524802
R. Daluiso, Emanuele Nastasi, A. Pallavicini, Giulio Sartorelli
In commodity and energy markets swing options allow the buyer to hedge against futures price fluctuations and to select its preferred delivery strategy within daily or periodic constraints, possibly fixed by observing quoted futures contracts. In this paper we focus on the natural gas market and we present a dynamical model for commodity futures prices able to calibrate liquid market quotes and to imply the volatility smile for futures contracts with different delivery periods. We implement the numerical problem by means of a least-square Monte Carlo simulation and we investigate alternative approaches based on reinforcement learning algorithms.
在大宗商品和能源市场,摆动期权允许买方对冲期货价格波动,并在每日或定期的限制条件下选择其首选的交割策略,这些限制条件可能是通过观察报价期货合约来确定的。本文以天然气市场为研究对象,提出了一个商品期货价格的动态模型,该模型能够校准流动性市场报价,并隐含不同交割期期货合约的波动率微笑。我们通过最小二乘蒙特卡罗模拟实现了数值问题,并研究了基于强化学习算法的替代方法。
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引用次数: 3
A Network Analysis of PM 2.5 Pollution in Santiago: Which Locations Have the Biggest Impact on Pollution Levels? 圣地亚哥pm2.5污染的网络分析:哪些地点对污染水平影响最大?
Pub Date : 2020-01-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3532176
R. Herrera, A. Clements, S. Hurn
Air pollution and, in particular, PM 2.5 particulate matter is a significant issue in Santiago, the capital of Chile. Santiago's pollution problem is exacerbated by its unique geographic location nestled against the Andes mountain range in the central valley of Chile. This paper uses network models, first developed to analyse linkages and systemic risk in the financial system, to identify those locations in the city that are most systemically important for explaining PM 2.5 level across the city. High average concentrations are associated with both systemically important locations and those that are most sensitive to pollution arriving from other locations. A detailed picture of the links across the city can help direct official efforts to combat pollution.
在智利首都圣地亚哥,空气污染,特别是PM 2.5颗粒物质是一个重大问题。圣地亚哥坐落在智利中部山谷的安第斯山脉旁,其独特的地理位置加剧了污染问题。本文使用网络模型,首先开发用于分析金融系统中的联系和系统性风险,以确定城市中对解释整个城市的pm2.5水平最具系统重要性的位置。高平均浓度既与具有系统重要性的地点有关,也与对来自其他地点的污染最敏感的地点有关。详细了解整个城市的交通状况有助于指导官方对抗污染的努力。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of the Contradictory Factors in Algal Co2 Sequestration with Sustainable Biofuel Benefit 矛盾因素对藻类Co2固存与生物燃料可持续效益的影响
Pub Date : 2020-01-14 DOI: 10.21203/rs.2.20809/v1
Ziyu Liu, C. LONDON), Shujun Han, Xiaoyi Yang
Background The purpose would discover the impacts of the contradictory factors in application of algae in CO2 sequestration with sustainable biofuel benefit. The quantitively assessment model and approach have been established coupling upstream CO2 source and deliverables with downstream algal biofuel deliverables at the uniform algae level of Nannochloropsis oceanica, which would be benefit for algae biofuel deliverables choice. The functional units have been defined at energy consumption (MJ) per final mass product (algae, jet biofuels by three refining pathways, biodiesels by three refining pathways) and energy consumption (MJ) per final energy yield (algae, jet biofuels, biodiesels). Computational framework is classified into three sub-models, including CO2 source and deliverable model, algae cultivation and deliverable model, refining process and biofuel deliverable model. This life cycle assessment investigated the following impacts: transportation distances and purification modes with flue gas CO2 concentrations, lipid content with specific productivity and CO2 biofixation coupling the nutrient supply, final products including algae, jet biofuel and biodiesel.Results Coupling the influence of transportation distances and purification modes on the energy consumption, flue gas with a wide range of CO2 concentration was compared for two type deliverables including algal CO2, edible CO2. flue gas with low CO2 concentration is appropriate for on-site algal CO2 deliverable within 10km while flue gas with above 95% CO2 is flexible to transportation distance and appropriate for edible CO2 deliverable. Specific productivities and CO2 fixation both comply with negatively logarithmic relationship with lipid contents. Coupling the effects of algae specific productivity and CO2 evaporation loss, the total CO2 fixation efficiencies were investigated above 90% at below 28 % lipid but obviously decrease at above 40% lipid. The nutrient supply enhances specific productivity and protein content but with indirect energy consumption. The total energy consumptions of different target products with upstream CO2 source and algae to downstream biofuel were calculated quantitatively on edible algae and general algae.Conclusions Biodieselwet and HTL-HRJ jet biofuel performed the priorities in energy consumption. Lipid content and profile defined biofuel deliverables in quantity and quality. The LCA indicated that allocation is a crucial issue to balance energy, environment and economy decision on target product choice and by-products. Coupling solar energy utilization and by-product of bioactive nutrients effects, the positive energy gains have been investigated at a wide range of lipid contents despite of jet biofuel or biodiesel. The results would enhance the interests in both LCA and application of algae in CO2 sequestration with sustainable biofuel benefit.
研究背景探讨藻类在二氧化碳固存和生物燃料可持续效益应用中的矛盾因素的影响。建立了在海洋纳米绿藻统一藻类水平上将上游CO2源和可交付物与下游藻类生物燃料可交付物耦合的定量评价模型和方法,有利于藻类生物燃料可交付物的选择。功能单位被定义为每最终批量产品(藻类、三种精炼途径的喷气生物燃料、三种精炼途径的生物柴油)的能耗(MJ)和每最终能量产出(藻类、喷气生物燃料、生物柴油)的能耗(MJ)。计算框架分为CO2源及可交付模型、藻类培养及可交付模型、炼油过程及生物燃料可交付模型三个子模型。该生命周期评估研究了以下影响:运输距离和净化方式与烟气CO2浓度、具有比生产力的脂质含量和与营养供应耦合的CO2生物固定、最终产品包括藻类、喷气生物燃料和生物柴油。结果结合运输距离和净化方式对能源消耗的影响,比较了藻类CO2和食用CO2两类可交付物的大范围CO2浓度烟气。CO2浓度较低的烟气适用于现场10公里以内的藻类CO2输送,CO2浓度95%以上的烟气适用于可食用的CO2输送。比生产率和CO2固定量均与脂质含量呈负对数关系。藻类比生产力和CO2蒸发损失的耦合效应表明,在脂含量低于28%时,总CO2固定效率在90%以上,而在脂含量高于40%时,总CO2固定效率明显下降。养分供给提高了比生产力和蛋白质含量,但间接消耗了能量。在食用藻类和一般藻类上,定量计算了上游CO2源和藻类对下游生物燃料的不同目标产品的总能耗。结论生物柴油和HTL-HRJ喷气生物燃料的能耗优先。脂质含量和剖面定义了生物燃料交付物的数量和质量。LCA分析表明,在目标产品选择和副产品选择上,分配是平衡能源、环境和经济决策的关键问题。耦合太阳能利用和生物活性营养物质的副产品效应,在广泛的脂质含量下研究了喷气生物燃料或生物柴油的正能量增益。该研究结果将提高人们对LCA和藻类在二氧化碳封存中的应用的兴趣,并具有可持续的生物燃料效益。
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引用次数: 0
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Econometric Modeling: Agriculture
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