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The Activist Personality: Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Opposition Activism in Authoritarian Regimes 激进主义人格:专制政体中的外向性、合意性与反对激进主义
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-19 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231152772
Jan Matti Dollbaum, Graeme B. Robertson
Why do people become opposition activists in authoritarian regimes where dissent invites social censure and can be dangerous? We make a new contribution to answering this classic question: personality. For the first time outside of democratic contexts, we investigate the association between personality traits and opposition activism, arguing that some traits work universally, while others interact with political context. We propose that—as in democracies—high extraversion predicts political activism, regardless of its pro- or anti-regime orientation, and, in particular, that extraversion is critical to explain the shift from online to offline action. We also argue that—contrary to democratic contexts—low agreeableness predicts opposition activism in autocracies, because it reduces the perceived costs of non-conformity. We test these arguments based on two independent survey samples from Russia, a stable authoritarian regime. In a series of statistical tests, including two case-control designs, we find consistent support for all hypotheses.
为什么在持不同意见会招致社会谴责并可能带来危险的专制政权中,人们会成为反对派积极分子?我们对回答这个经典问题做出了新的贡献:人格。我们首次在民主背景之外调查了人格特质与反对派行动主义之间的关系,认为有些特质具有普遍性,而另一些特质则与政治背景相互作用。我们认为,正如在民主国家一样,高外向性预示着政治激进主义,无论其倾向于支持还是反对政权,而且,特别是,外向性对于解释从线上到线下行动的转变至关重要。我们还认为,与民主环境相反,低亲和性预示着专制国家的反对派激进主义,因为它降低了不服从的感知成本。我们基于两个来自俄罗斯的独立调查样本来检验这些论点,俄罗斯是一个稳定的专制政权。在包括两个病例对照设计在内的一系列统计检验中,我们发现所有假设都得到一致的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Attitudinal Ambivalence on Redistribution: Causes and Electoral Implications Across Europe 对再分配的态度分歧:原因和欧洲各地的选举影响
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-17 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231152759
Alon Yakter
While support for redistribution remains high across Europe, voting for left-wing parties, traditionally identified with this agenda, has been under par. Past research explains this puzzle by class-based disagreements about redistributive priorities and by second-dimension attitudes. These explanations, however, assume coherent voter preferences reacting to structural changes. By contrast, I argue that part of the puzzle also lies in attitudinal ambivalence—simultaneous negative and positive evaluations—regarding redistributive policy. Using cross-sectional public opinion and party position data, I find that such ambivalence increases with lower political sophistication, greater value conflict, and weaker economic need. Electorally, it deepens detachment between support for redistribution and left-wing self-identification and increases voting for more economically and culturally right-wing parties. These patterns hold independently of class differences and second-dimension attitudes and replicate stably in earlier data. The findings contribute to ongoing debates about attitude structures and voting patterns and illuminate an additional challenge for economically progressive parties.
尽管欧洲各地对再分配的支持率仍然很高,但传统上认同这一议程的左翼政党的投票率一直不高。过去的研究通过基于阶级的对再分配优先事项的分歧和第二维度的态度来解释这一难题。然而,这些解释假设了选民对结构变化的一致偏好。相比之下,我认为部分困惑还在于对再分配政策的态度矛盾——同时存在负面和正面评价。利用横断面民意和政党立场数据,我发现这种矛盾心理随着政治复杂度的降低、价值冲突的加剧和经济需求的减弱而加剧。在选举方面,它加深了对再分配的支持和左翼自我认同之间的脱节,并增加了对更多经济和文化右翼政党的投票。这些模式独立于阶级差异和第二维度态度,并在早期数据中稳定复制。这些发现有助于对态度结构和投票模式进行持续的辩论,并阐明了经济进步政党面临的另一个挑战。
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引用次数: 0
What Kind of Democracy Do We All Support? How Partisan Interest Impacts a Citizen’s Conceptualization of Democracy 我们都支持什么样的民主?党派利益如何影响公民的民主观念
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-16 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231152784
J. D. Bryan
Despite waves of democratic backsliding over the last decade, most global citizens still claim to support democracy. On the other hand, many citizens become more supportive of specific anti-democratic actions when their preferred political side can benefit. How, then, do citizens justify their consistent “explicit support for democracy” with their more malleable support for the implementation of liberal democracy? This paper uses cross-national survey data from 74 countries and two methods—a standard cross-sectional analysis and a within-country variation design—to show that a citizen’s conceptualization of democracy, or what democracy means to them, is subject to partisan-motivated reasoning. In other words, citizens are more likely to conceptualize democracy in illiberal terms, like emphasizing the need for obeying authority, when their preferred political party is in power. The findings suggest one’s conception of democracy can be a fluid attitude that citizens mold to match their partisan self-interest.
尽管在过去十年中出现了民主倒退的浪潮,但大多数全球公民仍然声称支持民主。另一方面,当他们偏爱的一方能够从中受益时,许多公民会变得更加支持特定的反民主行动。那么,公民如何用他们对实施自由民主的更有可塑性的支持来证明他们一贯的“明确支持民主”呢?本文使用来自74个国家的跨国调查数据和两种方法——标准横断面分析和国内变异设计——来表明公民对民主的概念化,或者民主对他们意味着什么,受到党派动机推理的影响。换句话说,当他们喜欢的政党掌权时,公民更有可能以非自由的方式将民主概念化,比如强调服从权威的必要性。研究结果表明,一个人对民主的概念可能是一种不稳定的态度,公民可以根据自己的党派利益来塑造这种态度。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond the Myth of Legality? Framing Effects and Public Reactions to High Court Decisions in Europe 超越合法性的神话?框架效应和公众对欧洲高等法院判决的反应
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-14 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231152769
Pedro C. Magalhães, J. K. Skiple, Miguel M. Pereira, Sveinung Arnesen, H. L. Bentsen
How do people respond to different decision-making processes in high courts? One long-standing view suggests that citizens expect courts to be neutral arbiters of legal controversies. Although the relevance of such “myth of legality” has been challenged, we know very little about the relationship between the portrayals of the motives of courts and justices and public attitudes in civil law countries. We explore this question in a pair of experiments in Norway and Portugal where we isolate the effects of different institutional frames from outcome favorability. We find that while partisan frames are detrimental to fairness perceptions and acceptance of decisions, depictions of judicial decision-making that emphasize policy goals do not adversely affect citizens’ responses in comparison with legalistic frames. The results suggest that, even in civil law systems, preserving the myth of legality may not be a necessary condition to elicit public support for judicial decisions.
人们对高等法院不同的决策过程有何反应?一种长期存在的观点认为,公民期望法院成为法律争议的中立仲裁者。尽管这种“合法性神话”的相关性受到了挑战,但我们对大陆法系国家对法院和法官动机的描述与公众态度之间的关系知之甚少。我们在挪威和葡萄牙的一对实验中探讨了这个问题,我们将不同制度框架的影响与结果有利性隔离开来。我们发现,虽然党派框架不利于公平认知和对决定的接受,但与法律框架相比,强调政策目标的司法决策描述不会对公民的反应产生不利影响。结果表明,即使在大陆法系,保留合法性的神话可能不是获得公众支持司法裁决的必要条件。
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引用次数: 1
Grammar of Threat: Governance and Order in Public Threats by Criminal Actors 威胁语法:犯罪行为者公共威胁中的治理与秩序
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-13 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231152745
P. Johnson, Shauna N. Gillooly
Why do criminal actors publicly display threatening messages? Studies of organized crime emphasize that criminal actors rely on clandestine networks of influence. Subtle or coded threats are an effective means of extending that influence, but publicizing these threats appears to undermine their chief advantage. We argue that publicized threats broadcast an imagined order, delineating who has a place in society under criminal control, and who does not. To demonstrate this argument, we construct a “grammar of threat” and use this to analyze public threats broadcast by four criminal actors: two groups in Colombia and two in Mexico. The analysis demonstrates that every group projects an order through their threats, but that the order imagined varies by group. Some orders are more clearly ideological; some are more localized or more expansive. These findings highlight the important role of communication—distinct from but often combined with violence—in criminal governance.
为什么犯罪分子公开展示威胁信息?对有组织犯罪的研究强调,犯罪行为者依赖秘密的影响力网络。微妙或编码的威胁是扩大影响力的有效手段,但公开这些威胁似乎会削弱其主要优势。我们认为,公开的威胁传播了一种想象中的秩序,描绘了谁在刑事控制下的社会中有一席之地,谁没有。为了证明这一论点,我们构建了一个“威胁语法”,并用它来分析四个犯罪行为者广播的公共威胁:两个在哥伦比亚,两个在墨西哥。分析表明,每个群体都通过他们的威胁来投射秩序,但想象的秩序因群体而异。有些命令更明显是意识形态的;有些更本地化或更广泛。这些发现突出了沟通在刑事治理中的重要作用,沟通不同于暴力,但往往与暴力结合在一起。
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引用次数: 3
The Persistence of Rural Underdevelopment: Evidence from Land Reform in Italy 农村不发达的持续:来自意大利土地改革的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1177/00104140221089653
Michael Albertus
Patchiness in rural development remains a salient feature of many developed and developing countries that have struggled historically to overcome enormous national disparities in economic structure and well-being. This paper examines how one major, explicit rural policy ostensibly aimed at rural advancement—land reform—can impact uneven development in the countryside. It does so in Italy, where a major land reform redistributed large landholdings to individual peasant families after World War II. Based on original fine-grained data on land redistribution and a geographical regression discontinuity analysis that takes advantage of Italy’s zonal land reform approach, I find that greater land reform fueled comparative underdevelopment and precarity locally over the long term. Several related mechanisms delayed development in land reform zones: a slower transition out of agriculture, lower labor mobility, and an aging demographic. These are generalizable mechanisms that could operate in other cases of land reform beyond Italy.
农村发展的不平衡仍然是许多发达国家和发展中国家的一个突出特点,这些国家历史上一直在努力克服经济结构和福利方面的巨大国家差距。本文考察了一项表面上旨在促进农村发展的重大而明确的农村政策——土地改革——如何影响农村的不平衡发展。意大利就是这样,二战后,意大利进行了一次重大的土地改革,将大片土地重新分配给了个体农民家庭。基于土地再分配的原始细粒度数据,以及利用意大利地域性土地改革方法进行的地理回归不连续分析,我发现,从长期来看,更大的土地改革加剧了当地的相对欠发达和不稳定。一些相关的机制延缓了土地改革地区的发展:农业转型速度较慢,劳动力流动性较低,人口老龄化。这些都是可推广的机制,可以在意大利以外的其他土地改革案例中使用。
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引用次数: 1
The Political Resource Blessing or Curse? Patronage Networks, Infrastructure Investment, and Economic Development in China 政治资源是祝福还是诅咒?赞助人网络、基础设施投资与中国经济发展
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-11-24 DOI: 10.1177/00104140221139389
Z. Lei
Does the patron-client connection between local governments and their superiors improve or hurt the local economic development? Although recent research suggests that patron-client connections boost local economic performance, this paper investigates the potential costs and risks of connection-driven economic development. With a difference-in-differences design applied to Chinese prefecture-level cities, I find that politically connected cities were more likely to win their superior’s support to obtain the projects approved by the four-trillion-Yuan stimulus enacted in 2008 and increased the city’s public investment in infrastructure. Meanwhile, these politically connected cities accumulated more public debts than other unconnected cities. Furthermore, those cities that lacked such political connections were more likely to promote private investment by introducing business-friendly policies. These results show that patron-client connections make an economic development model that features government investment and public debts more possible than the one that depends on vibrant entrepreneurship and private investment.
地方政府与其上级之间的客户关系是否改善或损害了当地的经济发展?尽管最近的研究表明,赞助人-客户关系可以提高当地的经济绩效,但本文调查了关系驱动的经济发展的潜在成本和风险。将差异设计应用于中国地级市,我发现政治联系城市更有可能赢得上级的支持,以获得2008年颁布的4万亿元刺激计划批准的项目,并增加城市在基础设施方面的公共投资。与此同时,这些有政治联系的城市积累的公共债务比其他没有联系的城市更多。此外,那些缺乏这种政治联系的城市更有可能通过引入有利于商业的政策来促进私人投资。这些结果表明,赞助人-客户关系使以政府投资和公共债务为特征的经济发展模式比依赖充满活力的创业和私人投资的模式更有可能。
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引用次数: 1
Ethnic Minorities, Interstate War, and Popular Support for Fiscal Capacity Development 少数民族、国家间战争和公众对财政能力发展的支持
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-11-23 DOI: 10.1177/00104140221139375
A. Walter, P. Emmenegger
Do ethnic majorities and minorities have diverging preferences for fiscal capacity? Do these preferences converge during national emergencies such as interstate war? In this paper, we provide evidence from a natural experiment to demonstrate that politically salient minority-majority divisions undermine the development of fiscal capacity. In addition, we show that the pressure of interstate war is insufficient to supersede differences in support for the expansion of state’s capacity for taxation between majority and minority groups. More specifically, we employ a regression discontinuity design using a natural border that separates linguistic groups and municipality outcomes of a popular vote on the introduction of direct taxation at federal level in Switzerland during the First World War. The findings suggest that salient minority-majority divisions have a negative effect on the expansion of states’ capacity for taxation even during periods of interstate war.
多数民族和少数民族是否对财政能力有不同的偏好?在国家紧急情况下,如国家间战争,这些偏好是否会趋同?在本文中,我们提供了一个自然实验的证据来证明政治上显著的少数多数分歧破坏了财政能力的发展。此外,我们还表明,国家间战争的压力不足以取代多数群体和少数群体在支持扩大国家税收能力方面的差异。更具体地说,我们采用回归不连续设计,使用自然边界将语言群体和第一次世界大战期间在瑞士联邦一级引入直接税的全民投票结果分开。研究结果表明,即使在国家间战争期间,少数族裔与多数族裔之间明显的分歧也会对各州税收能力的扩大产生负面影响。
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引用次数: 1
The Political Legacy of Forced Migration: Evidence from Post-WWII Germany 强迫移民的政治遗产:来自二战后德国的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-11-22 DOI: 10.1177/00104140221141833
A. Menon
Do refugees reshape long-term political behavior in receiving areas? I argue that forced migration can foster a strong group identity among refugees, which can mobilize them toward political parties that champion their identity-based grievances. To test this argument, I examine how one of the largest forced migrations in modern history, the expulsion of ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe into Germany after WWII, shaped their electoral behavior over time. Using an original database of district-level data from 32 elections spanning a century, I find that communities which received greater shares of expellees remain more supportive of the expellees’ political champions—the radical right—over time. This relationship is particularly manifested when identity-based grievances are unresolved and politically salient. Mechanism evidence, including novel data on expellee monuments and associations, suggests that a durable expellee identity helps account for these results. My analysis reveals an enduring behavioral legacy resulting from forced migration.
难民是否重塑了接收地区的长期政治行为?我认为,强迫移民可以在难民中培养强烈的群体认同感,这可以动员他们加入支持他们基于身份的不满的政党。为了验证这一论点,我研究了现代史上最大的强迫移民之一,即二战后将德国人从东欧驱逐到德国,是如何随着时间的推移影响他们的选举行为的。使用一个由一个世纪以来32次选举的地区级数据组成的原始数据库,我发现,随着时间的推移,获得更多被驱逐者份额的社区仍然更支持被驱逐者的政治拥护者——激进右翼。当基于身份的不满没有得到解决并且政治上很突出时,这种关系尤其明显。机制证据,包括关于被驱逐者纪念碑和协会的新数据,表明持久的被驱逐者身份有助于解释这些结果。我的分析揭示了强迫移民带来的持久的行为遗产。
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引用次数: 0
War-Time Military Service Can Affect Partisan Preferences 战时服兵役会影响党派偏好
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1177/00104140221141837
A. Getmansky, Chagai M. Weiss
Does war-time military service affect partisan preferences? We argue that military service increases the salience and potential costs of war. Therefore, soldiers who serve during mismanaged wars will associate the ruling party with incompetence and be less likely to support the ruling party in the future. To test our argument, we analyze almost 50 years of Israel National Election Studies. Employing a regression discontinuity design, we show that compared with respondents who were too young to serve in the Yom Kippur war, respondents just old enough to serve report lower support for the Labor party well after the war ended. This effect is likely driven by soldiers’ unwillingness to support a party they associate with security incompetence. We further show that the negative effect of military service does not materialize in well-managed wars, contributing to the literature on the political consequences of war and attitude formation.
战时服兵役会影响党派偏好吗?我们认为服兵役增加了战争的显著性和潜在成本。因此,在管理不善的战争中服役的士兵会将执政党与无能联系在一起,未来支持执政党的可能性也会降低。为了验证我们的观点,我们分析了近50年的以色列全国选举研究。采用回归不连续设计,我们表明,与那些太年轻而不能在赎罪日战争中服役的受访者相比,刚刚足够大的受访者在战争结束后很长一段时间内对工党的支持率较低。这种影响很可能是由于士兵们不愿意支持一个他们认为安全无能的政党。我们进一步表明,兵役的负面影响不会在管理良好的战争中实现,这有助于关于战争和态度形成的政治后果的文献。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Comparative Political Studies
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