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State Repression and Opposition Survival in Pinochet’s Chile 皮诺切特统治下的智利,国家镇压与反对派生存
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231169032
Consuelo Amat
Why do some groups survive government repression while others get eliminated? This paper offers a corrective to the widely held theory that locally embedded opposition organizations with large and interconnected networks of civilian supporters are better adapted to survive. It argues that extreme and selective violent repression from a capable state requires strict compartmentalization and social detachment. These measures slow the speed and reach of repression. I test these propositions by examining the top targets of the Pinochet dictatorship in Chile. Cross-checking individuals on the Pinochet’s target lists against the victims lists, the article shows that the Revolutionary Leftist Movement (MIR) had a significantly lower rate of victimization than the other top targets. Archival and interview data demonstrate that MIR’s higher survival rate is due to the mechanisms proposed. This study renders intended repression observable and offers implications for the survival of a wide range of actors.
为什么一些团体在政府的镇压下幸存下来,而另一些却被消灭了?这篇论文纠正了一种广泛持有的理论,即拥有庞大且相互关联的平民支持者网络的当地反对派组织更适合生存。它认为,来自一个有能力的国家的极端和选择性的暴力镇压需要严格的划分和社会分离。这些措施减缓了镇压的速度和范围。我通过考察智利皮诺切特独裁统治的首要目标来检验这些观点。对比皮诺切特的目标名单和受害者名单,文章显示革命左派运动(MIR)的受害率明显低于其他主要目标。档案和访谈数据表明,MIR较高的存活率是由于所提出的机制。这项研究使有意的压制可观察到,并为广泛的行动者的生存提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
State Concessions and Protest Mobilization in Authoritarian Regimes 专制政权中的国家让步与抗议动员
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231169022
Elena Leuschner, S. Hellmeier
Autocrats typically respond with coercion when citizens take to the streets demanding political reform. Sometimes, however, they tolerate mass protests and even give in to protesters’ demands. While the effect of coercion on mobilization is well-studied, we know less about the role of concession-making. We argue that accommodating demands is rarely an effective strategy in demobilizing opposition movements. Authoritarian rulers are usually neither willing nor able to fully address protesters’ dynamic demands, nor can they offer credible commitments. We conduct a quantitative analysis using multiple cross-national data sets to empirically assess the relationship between concessions by the government and subsequent mass mobilization. By analyzing protest events in temporal and spatial proximity, we estimate the effect of making concessions on protest mobilization at the subnational level in 18 autocracies from 1991 to 2012. Our results indicate that concessions are associated with a significant and substantive increase in subsequent protest activity.
当公民走上街头要求政治改革时,独裁者通常会以胁迫作为回应。然而,有时他们容忍大规模抗议,甚至屈服于抗议者的要求。虽然胁迫对动员的影响已经得到了很好的研究,但我们对让步的作用知之甚少。我们认为,满足要求很少是遣散反对派运动的有效策略。威权统治者通常既不愿意也无法完全满足抗议者的动态要求,也无法做出可信的承诺。我们使用多个跨国数据集进行了定量分析,以实证评估政府让步与随后的大规模动员之间的关系。通过分析时间和空间上接近的抗议事件,我们估计了1991年至2012年18个独裁国家在国家以下一级做出让步对抗议动员的影响。我们的研究结果表明,让步与随后抗议活动的显著和实质性增加有关。
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引用次数: 1
Peacekeepers Without Helmets: How Violence Shapes Local Peacebuilding by Civilian Peacekeepers 没有头盔的维和人员:暴力如何影响平民维和人员的地方建设和平
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231178740
Allard Duursma, Hannah M. Smidt
While United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations are increasingly deployed during ongoing violent conflict, they are also increasingly staffed with civilian personnel tasked with peacebuilding at the local level. How does violent conflict affect civilian peacekeepers’ peacebuilding efforts locally? Shifting the research focus from military to civilian peacekeepers, we argue that the latter have various incentives and the capacity to concentrate their local-level peacebuilding efforts in violence-affected areas. We test our argument using novel, georeferenced data on peacebuilding by “Civil Affairs” personnel of the peacekeeping operation in the Central African Republic. Consistent with our expectation, violence positively correlates with civilian peacekeepers’ peacebuilding interventions both within and across localities. Furthermore, mediation analyses suggest that this correlation is not merely due to greater UN military deployments in violence-affected areas. Instrumental variable regression supports a causal interpretation: violence leads to more efforts by civilian peacekeepers. These findings inform expectations and assessments of peacekeeping effectiveness.
虽然联合国维持和平行动越来越多地部署在持续的暴力冲突期间,但它们也越来越多地配备了在地方一级负责建设和平的文职人员。暴力冲突如何影响当地文职维和人员的建设和平努力?将研究重点从军事维和人员转移到文职维和人员,我们认为后者有各种动机和能力将地方一级的建设和平努力集中在受暴力影响的地区。我们使用中非共和国维持和平行动的“民政”人员关于建设和平的新颖地理参考数据来检验我们的论点。与我们的预期一致,暴力与文职维和人员在地方内部和跨地方的建设和平干预呈正相关。此外,调解分析表明,这种相关性不仅仅是因为联合国在受暴力影响的地区部署了更多的军事力量。工具变量回归支持因果解释:暴力导致文职维和人员作出更多努力。这些调查结果为维持和平效力的期望和评估提供了依据。
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引用次数: 1
Media Manipulation in Young Democracies: Evidence From the 1989 Brazilian Presidential Election 年轻民主国家的媒体操纵:1989年巴西总统选举的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-26 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231169027
Alexsandros Cavgias, R. Corbi, L. Meloni, Lucas M. Novaes
We investigate how dominant media networks can manipulate voters in young democracies. During the first presidential election after the democratic transition in Brazil, TV Globo, the largest and most-watched network in the country, unexpectedly manipulated the news coverage of the last debate 2 days before the decisive second round. In a video segment, Globo unfavorably depicted the left-wing candidate, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Using the geographical distribution of broadcaster-specific TV signals and the timing of election events, we identify the effect of the manipulation net of the effect of the debate itself, showing that Globo’s misleading reporting caused Lula to lose millions of votes. Our results showcase how the media can reshape an election in a single stroke, especially where the media is concentrated and politically inexperienced voters have few other sources of information.
我们调查了占主导地位的媒体网络如何操纵年轻民主国家的选民。在巴西民主过渡后的第一次总统选举期间,该国最大、收视率最高的电视网环球电视台出人意料地操纵了决定性的第二轮辩论前两天最后一场辩论的新闻报道。在一段视频中,Globo对左翼候选人Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva的描述令人反感。利用特定广播公司电视信号的地理分布和选举事件的时间安排,我们确定了操纵的影响减去了辩论本身的影响,表明Globo的误导性报道导致卢拉失去了数百万张选票。我们的结果展示了媒体如何一下子重塑选举,尤其是在媒体集中、政治经验不足的选民几乎没有其他信息来源的情况下。
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引用次数: 0
How Crises Shape Circles of Solidarity: Evidence From the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy 危机如何塑造团结圈:来自意大利COVID-19大流行的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-26 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231169028
Jeremy Ferwerda, G. Magni, L. Hooghe, G. Marks
How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected boundaries of solidarity? Human-induced crises that impose asymmetric costs tend to sharpen pre-existing divides, but natural disasters often strengthen solidarity. The pandemic possesses properties of both kinds of crisis. In a panel survey conducted in Northern Italy, the initial epicenter of the pandemic, we asked respondents to complete conjoint tasks querying who was likely to violate health guidelines (wave 1) and who should be prioritized for vaccine distribution (wave 2). We find that while discrimination towards the rich is nearly universal, bias against other outgroups depends on ideology and personal experience with the crisis. Leftwing individuals display discrimination towards partisan outgroups, while those on the right display ethnic bias. However, this effect is conditional: those who suffered a significant income loss but no health effects display heightened discrimination, while respondents who experienced COVID-19 as a personal health crisis are less likely to penalize outgroups.
COVID-19大流行如何影响团结的边界?人为危机造成的不对称成本往往会加剧原有的鸿沟,但自然灾害往往会加强团结。这场大流行病具有这两种危机的特点。在意大利北部进行的一项小组调查中,我们要求受访者完成联合任务,询问谁可能违反健康指南(第一波),谁应该优先分配疫苗(第二波)。我们发现,尽管对富人的歧视几乎是普遍存在的,但对其他外围群体的偏见取决于意识形态和个人危机经验。左翼人士对党派外群体表现出歧视,而右翼人士则表现出种族偏见。然而,这种影响是有条件的:那些遭受重大收入损失但没有健康影响的人表现出更严重的歧视,而将COVID-19视为个人健康危机的受访者不太可能惩罚外围群体。
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引用次数: 0
Workfare and Attitudes toward the Unemployed: New Evidence on Policy Feedback from 1990 to 2018 工作福利与对失业的态度:1990 - 2018年政策反馈的新证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231178743
Alexander Horn, Anthony Kevins, Kees van Kersbergen
To what extent, and under what conditions, have workfare reforms shaped public opinion towards the unemployed? This article unpacks the punitive and enabling dimensions of the workfare turn and examines how changes to the rights and obligations of the unemployed have influenced related policy preferences. To do so, it presents a novel dataset on these reforms across a diverse set of welfare states and investigates potential feedback effects by combining our data with four waves of survey data from Europe and North America. Results suggest that while enabling measures generate more lenient attitudes towards the unemployed, punitive measures have no clear effect on public opinion – but they do accentuate the gap between the preferences of high- and low-income individuals. This leads us to conclude that the trend towards punitive and enabling measures since the 1980s has not broadly undermined solidarity with the unemployed, though it has increased income-based polarization.
在何种程度上,在何种条件下,福利改革影响了公众对失业者的看法?本文揭示了福利转向的惩罚性和支持性维度,并研究了失业者权利和义务的变化如何影响相关的政策偏好。为此,它提出了一个关于不同福利国家的改革的新数据集,并通过将我们的数据与来自欧洲和北美的四波调查数据相结合,调查了潜在的反馈效应。结果表明,虽然扶持措施对失业者产生更宽容的态度,但惩罚性措施对公众舆论没有明显影响- -但它们确实加剧了高收入和低收入个人偏好之间的差距。这使我们得出结论,1980年代以来采取惩罚性和扶持措施的趋势虽然增加了以收入为基础的两极分化,但并没有广泛破坏对失业者的团结。
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引用次数: 0
Electoral Systems, Partisan Politics, and Income Redistribution: A Critical Quasi-Experiment 选举制度、党派政治和收入再分配:一个关键的准实验
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231169018
M. Górecki, Michał Pierzgalski
Iversen and Soskice’s notion that electoral rules affect democracies’ propensity for income redistribution is one of the political economy’s most discussed concepts. Yet, it comes with a number of caveats. Most importantly, it is not clear whether electoral rules indeed affect states’ propensity for redistribution or vice versa and thus whether or not Iversen and Soskice’s findings are spurious. In this article, we focus on the critical case of New Zealand’s electoral reform of the 1990s and offer a comprehensive test of Iversen and Soskice’s concept. We employ the recently developed Bayesian alternative to the synthetic control method and compare the relevant dynamics for New Zealand to those of six majoritarian democracies. Our results largely supports Iversen and Soskice’s claims; due to the lower prevalence of right (center-right) governments, proportional representation democracies tend to redistribute more than majoritarian ones.
Iversen和Soskice认为选举规则会影响民主国家的收入再分配倾向,这是政治经济学中讨论最多的概念之一。然而,它也带来了一些警告。最重要的是,目前尚不清楚选举规则是否确实影响了各州的再分配倾向,反之亦然,也不清楚Iversen和Soskice的调查结果是否虚假。在这篇文章中,我们聚焦于20世纪90年代新西兰选举改革的关键案例,并对Iversen和Soskice的概念进行了全面的检验。我们采用了最近开发的贝叶斯替代综合控制方法,并将新西兰的相关动态与六个多数民主国家的动态进行了比较。我们的结果在很大程度上支持了Iversen和Soskice的主张;由于右翼(中右翼)政府的普遍性较低,比例代表制民主国家往往比多数派民主国家更倾向于再分配。
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引用次数: 0
Refugee Labor Market Access Increases Support for Immigration 难民劳动力市场准入增加对移民的支持
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231178733
Anselm Hager, H. Hilbig, Sascha Riaz
Does the economic integration of refugees affect public attitudes toward migration? We assess this pertinent question by examining a policy change in Germany, where the government significantly eased labor market access for refugees in the majority of the country. Using administrative employment data, we show that the policy led to a substantial increase in refugee employment, while natives’ wages and employment rates remained unaffected. The policy also had a positive effect on natives’ attitudes toward migration. Voters exposed to more refugees in the labor market were two percentage points more likely to vote for pro-migration parties across both state and federal elections. Additional survey analyses suggest that our results are driven by positive native–refugee interactions in the workplace.
难民的经济融合是否会影响公众对移民的态度?我们通过研究德国的政策变化来评估这个相关问题,德国政府大幅放宽了该国大部分地区难民的劳动力市场准入。利用行政就业数据,我们发现该政策导致难民就业大幅增加,而当地人的工资和就业率没有受到影响。该政策也对当地人对待移民的态度产生了积极影响。在州和联邦选举中,在劳动力市场上接触到更多难民的选民投票给支持移民政党的可能性高出两个百分点。其他调查分析表明,我们的结果是由工作场所中积极的本地人与难民互动推动的。
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引用次数: 0
Voting for Law and Order: Evidence From a Survey Experiment in Mexico 投票支持法律和秩序:来自墨西哥调查实验的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231169035
Tiago Ventura, S. Ley, Francisco Cantú
In this article, we examine the demand-and-supply dynamic of security policies. We argue there are two informational shortcuts through which voters process policy alternatives and choose among them: (1) their own personal experiences with violence and (2) candidates’ profiles. We test our argument through an original survey experiment conducted in Mexico. We model voters’ decisions to support candidates campaigning over a variety of security proposals. Our survey design takes advantage of recent developments in network models to better measure the effects of crime exposure on voters’ preferences. We find that higher exposure to crime victimization is associated with increased support for only some iron-fist policies, therefore highlighting the importance of unpacking security policies instead of generalizing the results of crime exposure. We show null effects of partisan advantages and reveal the role of non-partisan heuristics, such as the candidate’s professional experience, in preferences for security policies.
在本文中,我们将研究安全策略的供求动态。我们认为,选民在处理政策选择并从中做出选择时,有两种信息捷径:(1)他们自己的个人暴力经历;(2)候选人的个人资料。我们通过在墨西哥进行的一项原始调查实验来验证我们的论点。我们模拟了选民在各种安全提案上支持候选人竞选的决定。我们的调查设计利用了网络模型的最新发展,以更好地衡量犯罪暴露对选民偏好的影响。我们发现,对犯罪受害的暴露程度越高,对某些铁拳政策的支持程度越高,因此,我们强调了打开安全政策的重要性,而不是将犯罪暴露的结果普遍化。我们展示了党派优势的零效应,并揭示了无党派启发式的作用,如候选人的专业经验,在安全政策的偏好。
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引用次数: 1
How Personalist Parties Undermine State Capacity in Democracies 个性化政党如何在民主政体中削弱国家能力
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231169014
Jia Li, Joseph G Wright
How do political parties shape state capacity? We argue that democratic leaders backed by personalist parties are more likely than other leaders to undermine impartial state administration. Personalist parties are those where the leader has more control over the party than other senior party elites. Elites in these parties have careers closely tied to the leader, are unlikely to normatively value an impersonal bureaucracy, and lack collective action capacity independent from the leader. Therefore, personalist parties are less likely than other parties to restrain leaders from undermining impartial state administration. Results from various designs for causal inference show that party personalism decreases impersonal state administration, particularly when the party controls a legislative majority. However, party personalism does not influence other dimensions of state capacity, such as fiscal capacity or territorial control. The findings have implications for how political parties enable democratically elected leaders to erode open-access societies and ultimately, democracy.
政党如何塑造国家能力?我们认为,由个人主义政党支持的民主领导人比其他领导人更有可能破坏公正的国家管理。个人主义政党是指领导人比其他党内高级精英更能控制政党的政党。这些政党的精英们的职业生涯与领导人密切相关,不太可能规范地重视非个人的官僚机构,也缺乏独立于领导人的集体行动能力。因此,与其他政党相比,个人主义政党不太可能约束领导人破坏公正的国家行政。因果推理的各种设计结果表明,政党个人化减少了非个人的国家管理,特别是当政党控制立法多数时。然而,政党个人化并不影响国家能力的其他方面,如财政能力或领土控制。这些发现对政党如何让民选领导人侵蚀开放社会,最终侵蚀民主产生了影响。
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引用次数: 0
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Comparative Political Studies
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