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The Reach of the State 国家的影响力
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-08 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231194057
Charles Chang, Yuhua Wang
We conceptualize the reach of the state by examining how the physical presence of the state helps the state project its power by signaling state interests and strength. We present a new measurement strategy to capture the territorial reach of the state using points-of-interest data provided by location-based service companies. Our measure exhibits several advantages: (1) it draws on firm-produced or crowd-sourced (rather than government-produced) data, (2) it includes highly precise, geo-referenced location information, which can be aggregated to any geographical or administrative level, (3) it traces temporal changes, and (4) it covers different types of state agencies. We illustrate its features using original databases that we compiled on state agencies in China and other countries. We demonstrate how researchers can use our measure by examining the locations and effects of coercive organizations and provide our data, code, and a tutorial to help researchers explore new avenues of inquiry.
我们通过考察国家的物理存在如何通过表明国家的利益和力量来帮助国家投射其权力,从而概念化国家的影响力。我们提出了一种新的测量策略,使用基于位置的服务公司提供的兴趣点数据来捕捉该州的领土覆盖范围。我们的测量显示出几个优势:(1)它利用了公司生产或众包(而不是政府生产)的数据,(2)它包括高度精确的地理参考位置信息,可以聚合到任何地理或行政级别,(3)它跟踪时间变化,(4)它涵盖了不同类型的国家机构。我们使用我们在中国和其他国家的国家机构上汇编的原始数据库来说明它的特点。我们展示了研究人员如何通过检查胁迫组织的位置和影响来使用我们的措施,并提供我们的数据、代码和教程,帮助研究人员探索新的调查途径。
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引用次数: 0
Recent Events and the Coding of Cross-National Indicators 最近的事件和跨国指标的编码
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-08 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231193006
Nils B. Weidmann
Much research in political science relies on datasets produced by human coders. Many variables included in these datasets are not based on observable facts but rather require a considerable level of human judgment. This project studies the extent to which this judgment is affected by availability bias and how it influences the retrospective coding of historic cases. The analysis uses coder-level data from the V-Dem project, one of the few datasets collecting and releasing codings tagged with timestamps when they were produced. The results show that recent dramatic events in a country just prior to the coding have a small, but visible impact on coder ratings, but primarily for those variables that are directly related to the observed events. The magnitude of this effect, however, is small. This alleviates concerns that prominent events in world politics around the time of coding significantly affect the reliability of cross-national indicators.
政治学中的许多研究都依赖于人类编码者生成的数据集。这些数据集中包含的许多变量并不是基于可观察的事实,而是需要相当程度的人类判断。该项目研究了这种判断在多大程度上受到可用性偏差的影响,以及它如何影响历史案例的回顾性编码。该分析使用了V-Dem项目的编码器级数据,V-Dem是为数不多的收集和发布带有时间戳的编码的数据集之一。结果表明,就在编码之前,一个国家最近发生的戏剧性事件对编码者的评分有很小但明显的影响,但主要是对那些与观察到的事件直接相关的变量。然而,这种影响的幅度很小。这缓解了人们对编码前后世界政治中的突出事件显著影响跨国指标可靠性的担忧。
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引用次数: 1
Who are the Cosmopolitans? How Perceived Social Sorting and Social Identities Relate to European and National Identities 世界主义者是谁?感知的社会分类和社会认同与欧洲和国家认同的关系
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-07 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231194054
Ronja Sczepanski
Transnational European identities influence public debates and electoral dynamics across Europe, with sociodemographic factors strongly associated with these identities. Meanwhile, little attention has been paid to how people’s perceptions of a political group’s sociodemographic profile relate to their identification with Europe. I argue that such perceptions, in combination with social identities, are significantly associated with the strength of individuals’ identification with political groups. An individual is more likely to have a robust European identity if they perceive that social groups they like share the same pro-European opinion. In contrast, if they perceive that groups they like align with the anti-European camp, they are likely to have a weaker European identity. By employing novel survey data from Italy and Austria, I find empirical support for my argument. This paper contributes to the debate on the mechanisms that connect social and political identities and explains how cleavages emerge in the mass public.
跨国欧洲身份影响着整个欧洲的公共辩论和选举动态,社会人口因素与这些身份密切相关。与此同时,很少有人关注人们对一个政治团体的社会人口特征的看法与他们对欧洲的认同之间的关系。我认为,这种观念与社会身份相结合,与个人对政治团体的认同程度显著相关。如果一个人认为自己喜欢的社会群体也有同样的亲欧观点,那么他就更有可能拥有强烈的欧洲认同。相反,如果他们认为自己喜欢的团体与反欧阵营结盟,他们的欧洲认同可能会减弱。通过使用来自意大利和奥地利的新颖调查数据,我为我的论点找到了实证支持。这篇论文有助于讨论连接社会和政治身份的机制,并解释了分裂是如何在大众中出现的。
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引用次数: 0
Revenue, Redistribution, and the Rise and Fall of Inheritance Taxation 收入、再分配和遗产税的兴衰
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-04 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231194065
Philipp Genschel, Julian Limberg, Laura Seelkopf
Why do countries repeal the inheritance tax? To investigate this question, we use a novel dataset on inheritance tax introductions and repeals worldwide. We argue that revenue requirements are the main determinant of repeal risks: The inheritance tax is resilient as long as it is central to the national revenue system; it becomes vulnerable to attacks once the rise of more efficient tax instruments marginalizes its revenue contribution. Devoid of fiscal purpose, its survival depends mainly on its redistributive features. Redistribution, however, is essentially contested and should be more important in democracies. The evidence is in line with our conjecture: The likelihood of inheritance tax repeal increases as other more buoyant taxes rise and non-democracies are more likely to repeal the tax than democracies.
为什么有些国家要废除遗产税?为了研究这个问题,我们使用了一个关于全球遗产税引入和废除的新数据集。我们认为,收入要求是废除风险的主要决定因素:只要遗产税是国家税收体系的核心,它就具有弹性;一旦更有效的税收工具的兴起使其收入贡献边缘化,它就容易受到攻击。由于缺乏财政目的,它的生存主要取决于它的再分配特征。然而,再分配在本质上是有争议的,在民主国家应该更为重要。证据与我们的猜想一致:随着其他更具活力的税收增加,遗产税废除的可能性也会增加,而非民主国家比民主国家更有可能废除遗产税。
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引用次数: 0
Long-Term Strategic Thinking, Cost Considerations, and the Partisan Politics of Ghent 长期战略思维、成本考量与根特的党派政治
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231193007
Dennie Oude nijhuis
It has long been established that the presence of the so-called “Ghent systems” of unemployment insurance greatly enhances unionization rates. This paper investigates the political determinants of the choice for and against the introduction and continuation of these systems. Based on a diachronic analysis of three paradigmatic cases, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Sweden, and two shadow cases, Germany and Britain, it shows that all major actors were well aware of their organizational effect during the first half of the 20th century. At the same time, it shows that long-term strategic thinking only played a major role in shaping party attitudes toward “Ghent” in countries where the prevailing party system ensured that its introduction produced clear partisan “winners” and “losers.” In all other countries, cost considerations were central in shaping party views on Ghent. The analysis shows how cost considerations can explain both bourgeois party support for its introduction and left-party support for its discontinuation.
长期以来,人们一直认为,所谓的“根特制度”失业保险的存在大大提高了工会的成立率。本文研究了支持和反对引入和延续这些制度的政治决定因素。通过对比利时、荷兰和瑞典这三个典型案例以及德国和英国这两个影子案例的历时分析,我们发现20世纪上半叶,所有主要参与者都清楚地意识到了自己的组织效应。同时,它表明,在主流政党制度确保其引入产生明显的党派“赢家”和“输家”的国家,长期战略思维只在塑造政党对“根特”的态度方面发挥了重要作用。在所有其他国家,成本考虑是塑造政党对根特看法的核心。该分析表明,成本考虑如何解释资产阶级政党支持其引入和左翼政党支持其终止。
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引用次数: 0
Progressive Ideology and Support for Punitive Crime Policy: Evidence from Argentina and Brazil 进步意识形态与对犯罪惩罚政策的支持——来自阿根廷和巴西的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231193011
Isabel G. Laterzo
Scholars commonly link citizens’ broader ideological views to their preferences for two opposing approaches to fighting crime: conservatives are believed to support punitive approaches, while progressives support preventative solutions. Yet, other studies indicate that citizens across the ideological spectrum support punitive approaches, often due to instrumental factors such as experiences with and perceptions of crime. This study examines how instrumental factors interact with ideology and determines under what circumstances progressives support punitive candidates. The results of a conjoint experiment fielded in Argentina and Brazil demonstrate that among progressives, the effect of ideology on preferences for punitive candidates is moderated by three instrumental factors: perceptions regarding 1) insecurity, 2) the ineffectiveness of social policy, and 3) gang-driven crime; there are null results regarding the role of victimization. The findings also provide evidence that conservatives prefer punitive candidates regardless of instrumental explanations. The results are validated through an analysis of AmericasBarometer data.
学者们通常将公民更广泛的意识形态观点与他们对两种相反的打击犯罪方法的偏好联系起来:保守派被认为支持惩罚性方法,而进步派则支持预防性解决方案。然而,其他研究表明,不同意识形态的公民都支持惩罚方法,这通常是由于犯罪经历和认知等工具性因素。这项研究考察了工具性因素如何与意识形态相互作用,并确定了进步派在什么情况下支持惩罚性候选人。在阿根廷和巴西进行的一项联合实验的结果表明,在进步派中,意识形态对惩罚性候选人偏好的影响受到三个工具性因素的调节:1)不安全感,2)社会政策的无效性,以及3)帮派驱动的犯罪;关于受害的作用,没有任何结果。研究结果还提供了证据,表明保守派倾向于惩罚性候选人,而不管工具性解释如何。通过对AmericasBarometer数据的分析对结果进行了验证。
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引用次数: 0
Populism and De Facto Central Bank Independence. 民粹主义与事实上的中央银行独立。
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-07-01 Epub Date: 2022-11-17 DOI: 10.1177/00104140221139513
Michael Gavin, Mark Manger

Although central bank independence is a core tenet of monetary policy-making, it remains politically contested: In many emerging markets, populist governments are in frequent public conflict with the central bank. At other times, the same governments profess to respect the monetary authority's independence. We model this conflict drawing on the crisis bargaining literature. Our model predicts that populist politicians will often bring a nominally independent central bank to heel without having to change its legal status. To provide evidence, we build a new data set of public pressure on central banks by classifying over 9000 analyst reports using machine learning. We find that populist politicians are more likely than non-populists to exert public pressure on the central bank, unless checked by financial markets, and also more likely to obtain interest rate concessions. Our findings underscore that de jure does not equal de facto central bank independence in the face of populist pressures.

尽管中央银行的独立性是货币政策制定的核心原则,但它在政治上仍有争议:在许多新兴市场,民粹主义政府经常与中央银行公开冲突。而在另一些时候,这些政府又声称尊重货币当局的独立性。我们借鉴危机讨价还价的文献对这种冲突进行建模。我们的模型预测,民粹主义政客往往会让名义上独立的中央银行屈服,而无需改变其法律地位。为了提供证据,我们利用机器学习对 9000 多份分析师报告进行了分类,从而建立了一个新的数据集,用以说明公众对中央银行施加的压力。我们发现,民粹主义政治家比非民粹主义政治家更有可能对中央银行施加公众压力,除非受到金融市场的制衡,而且也更有可能获得利率让步。我们的研究结果强调,面对民粹主义压力,法律上的央行独立性并不等于事实上的央行独立性。
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引用次数: 0
Technocracy for the People? The Impact of Government-Imposed Democratic Innovations on Governance and Citizen Well-Being 科技为民?政府推行民主创新对治理和公民福祉的影响
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-06-28 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231178725
J. Abbott, Katherine McKiernan, Stephanie L. McNulty
Despite participatory institutions’ increasing ubiquity, we know little about their effects on governance and well-being. What we do know comes largely from Brazil, where positive outcomes have been attributed to civil society’s role in implementation. Often, however, participatory institutions are imposed by national governments, with little civil society engagement. In these cases, scholars have argued, participatory institutions are unlikely to improve governance and well-being, as civil society is not present to unlock the institutions’ potential. We test this proposition in Peru, the first country featuring government mandated participatory institutions for all subnational governments. We find, surprisingly, that Peru’s participatory budgeting process increased pro-poor spending and improved citizen’s quality of life. We attribute these outcomes to reduced information asymmetries, made possible by the central role played by an influential and autonomous government agency. We employ a unique panel dataset, as well as an original survey and extensive interviews with government and civil society actors.
尽管参与性机构越来越普遍,但我们对它们对治理和福祉的影响知之甚少。我们所知道的情况主要来自巴西,该国的积极成果归功于民间社会在实施中的作用。然而,参与性机构往往是由国家政府强加的,很少有民间社会参与。学者们认为,在这些情况下,参与式制度不太可能改善治理和福祉,因为公民社会不存在,无法释放这些制度的潜力。我们在秘鲁检验了这一命题,秘鲁是第一个为所有地方政府设立政府授权参与性机构的国家。我们惊奇地发现,秘鲁的参与式预算编制过程增加了扶贫支出,提高了公民的生活质量。我们将这些成果归因于信息不对称的减少,这是一个有影响力和自主的政府机构发挥核心作用所造成的。我们采用了独特的小组数据集,以及原始调查和对政府和民间社会行动者的广泛访谈。
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引用次数: 1
Centralization, Elite Capture, and Service Provision: Evidence From Taiwan 集中化、精英俘获与服务提供——来自台湾的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-06-15 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231169023
Hsu Yumin Wang
Much recent work has debated the effect of decentralization on service provision, its underlying mechanisms, and the tradeoff between responsiveness and elite capture. This study contributes to that debate by investigating a rare partial rollout of institutional change that reversed administrative, fiscal, and political decentralization in Taiwan. Utilizing a difference-in-differences design, I find that centralization decreases public goods provision and that such a negative effect is stronger and more robust on those public goods that involve greater local government activity. Additional evidence related to mechanisms suggests that the loss of proximity and accountability in service delivery after centralization can be critical. The effect heterogeneity results do not constitute strong evidence that centralization significantly improves service provision in areas with higher levels of local elite capture. These findings highlight the importance of decentralization’s responsiveness advantages in improving local service provision and advance the policy debate on local institutional choice.
最近的许多工作都讨论了权力下放对服务提供的影响、其潜在机制,以及反应能力和精英俘获之间的权衡。本研究通过调查台湾罕见的部分制度变革,扭转了行政、财政和政治权力下放的趋势,为这一争论做出了贡献。利用差异中的差异设计,我发现集中化减少了公共产品的供应,而且这种负面影响对那些涉及更多地方政府活动的公共产品更为强烈和稳健。与机制有关的其他证据表明,集中化后服务提供的接近性和问责性的丧失可能至关重要。效应异质性结果并不构成强有力的证据,表明集中化显著改善了当地精英聚集程度较高的地区的服务提供。这些发现突出了权力下放的响应优势在改善地方服务提供方面的重要性,并推动了关于地方制度选择的政策辩论。
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引用次数: 0
Does Right-Wing Violence Affect Public Support for Radical Right Parties? Evidence from Germany 右翼暴力会影响公众对极右翼政党的支持吗?来自德国的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-06-10 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231169021
Werner Krause, Miku Matsunaga
This article examines whether citizens’ political preferences toward radical right parties (RRPs) change after right-wing extremist violent attacks. It investigates this question in two ways. First, it presents a time-series study on public support for the RRP Alternative for Germany (AfD) between 2013 and 2019. Second, the article employs a quasi-experimental research design to examine the effect of a right-wing terrorist attack on citizens’ attitudes toward immigrants. Both studies indicate that public support for the AfD and its programmatic core positions increased after right-wing extremist attacks. Subsequent analyses suggest that former voters of the mainstream right, in particular, drive this effect. These findings shed light on the determinants of radical right party support, contributing to the long-standing debate on the consequences of political violence.
本文考察了公民对极右翼政党的政治偏好在右翼极端主义暴力袭击后是否会发生变化。它从两个方面调查了这个问题。首先,它对2013年至2019年期间德国另类选择党(AfD)的公众支持率进行了时间序列研究。其次,本文采用准实验研究设计来考察右翼恐怖袭击对公民对移民态度的影响。两项研究都表明,在右翼极端分子发动袭击后,公众对德国新选择党及其纲领核心立场的支持有所增加。随后的分析表明,主流右翼的前选民尤其推动了这种效应。这些发现揭示了极右翼政党支持的决定因素,有助于长期以来关于政治暴力后果的辩论。
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引用次数: 0
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Comparative Political Studies
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