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Fascist Legacies of Mobilization and Co-Optation: Evidence from Democratic Portugal 法西斯的动员和共同选择遗产:民主葡萄牙的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-13 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231204243
Michael Albertus, Noah Schouela
Many authoritarian regimes seek to blunt everyday acts of resistance and social mobilization through co-optation rather than adopting riskier tools like outright repression. What are the political imprints of authoritarian-era co-optation after a transition to democracy? We examine this question in Portugal, where rural corporatist institutions known as Casas do Povo sought to co-opt peasants and dismantle worker mobilization in the fascist era. We find conditional effects for the consequences of rural co-optation in Portugal’s restive southern region, where Casas do Povo took on particular importance given ongoing social mobilization over exploitative labor conditions in the countryside. Absent robust co-optation, social mobilization in the fascist era translated into greater support for the left-wing Portuguese Communist Party after democratization and less support for the right. But the electoral legacies of social mobilization are absent where the fascist regime created early Casas do Povo, facilitating co-optation.
许多独裁政权试图通过拉拢来削弱日常的反抗和社会动员行为,而不是采取直接镇压等风险更大的手段。在向民主过渡之后,专制时代的收买行为会留下哪些政治烙印?我们在葡萄牙研究了这一问题,在法西斯时代,被称为 "Casas do Povo "的农村公司化机构试图收编农民,瓦解工人的动员能力。我们发现,在葡萄牙动荡不安的南部地区,农村共治的后果具有条件效应,而在那里,由于对农村剥削性劳动条件的持续社会动员,Casas do Povo 变得尤为重要。如果没有强有力的增选,法西斯时代的社会动员会在民主化后转化为对左翼葡萄牙共产党的更大支持,而对右翼的支持则会减少。但是,在法西斯政权早期建立的 "人民之家"(Casas do Povo)中,社会动员的选举遗产并不存在,这为共同选举提供了便利。
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引用次数: 0
The Legacies of Rebel Rule in Southeast Turkey 土耳其东南部叛军统治的遗产
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231204223
C. Loyle, Ilayda B. Onder
During armed conflict civilians often inhabit areas of contested governance or areas where rebel groups, NGOs, and/or criminal syndicates vie for authority and challenge the control of the state. As non-state actors confront the authority and legitimacy of the state, civilians become central players in that competition asked to uphold or undercut these alternative governance claims. In this paper we examine the long-term impact of rebel governance for citizens living in spaces where state governance is challenged. Leveraging survey data from areas historically under PKK control in Southeastern Turkey, we focus on the ways in which contestation over governance during the conflict influenced future trust and engagement with the Turkish state. Specifically, we find that individual engagement with rebel governance institutions and personal conflict experience are important factors in understanding the effects of contested governance. Our findings increase our understanding of the long-term impact of armed conflict on civilians and the potential lasting impacts of rebel governance on the post-conflict state.
在武装冲突期间,平民往往居住在治理有争议的地区,或者反叛团体、非政府组织和/或犯罪集团争夺权力和挑战国家控制的地区。当非国家行为者与国家的权威和合法性对抗时,平民就会成为这场竞争的核心参与者,被要求维护或削弱这些替代性治理主张。在本文中,我们研究了叛军治理对生活在国家治理受到挑战的地区的公民的长期影响。利用土耳其东南部库尔德工人党历史上控制地区的调查数据,我们重点研究了冲突期间对治理的争论如何影响未来对土耳其国家的信任和参与。具体而言,我们发现个人与反叛治理机构的接触以及个人的冲突经历是理解有争议治理的影响的重要因素。我们的研究结果加深了我们对武装冲突对平民的长期影响以及叛军治理对冲突后国家的潜在持久影响的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Does Election Fraud Erode Support for Autocrats? 选举舞弊会削弱对专制者的支持吗?
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-14 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231209959
Laurits F. Aarslew
Does election fraud erode support for dictators? An original survey experiment from Russia following the 2020 vote on constitutional amendments reveals three key findings. First, regime supporters and opponents differ significantly in their baseline beliefs about election fairness. While regime opponents are already aware of fraud, supporters expect relatively fair elections. Consequently, only regime supporters revise their election beliefs when exposed to fraud information. Second, fraud revelations reduce regime legitimacy beliefs, but only among the regime’s political base. In contrast, regime opponents already perceive the regime as illegitimate at the baseline. Third, the experiment shows minimal, if any, effects on attitudes toward Putin. While fraud revelations cause regime supporters to adjust their views on the regime, their opinions about Putin remain largely unaffected. The findings imply that dictators can maintain popular support among their political base while manipulating elections, posing questions about the potential of fraud to undermine regime stability.
选举舞弊会削弱对独裁者的支持吗?俄罗斯在 2020 年就宪法修正案进行投票后开展了一项原创调查实验,揭示了三个重要发现。首先,政权支持者和反对者对选举公平性的基本看法存在显著差异。政权的反对者已经意识到了舞弊现象,而支持者则期待相对公平的选举。因此,只有政权支持者才会在接触到舞弊信息时修正他们的选举信念。其次,舞弊信息的披露会降低政权的合法性信念,但仅限于政权的政治基础。相反,政权的反对者在基准线上就已经认为政权是不合法的了。第三,实验显示对普京态度的影响微乎其微。虽然欺诈行为的揭露导致政权支持者调整了对政权的看法,但他们对普京的看法基本上没有受到影响。研究结果表明,独裁者可以在操纵选举的同时维持其政治基础的民众支持,这就对舞弊破坏政权稳定的可能性提出了质疑。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to the Human Costs of the War on Drugs. Attitudes Towards Militarization of Security in Mexico 毒品战争的人类代价》的更正。墨西哥对安全军事化的态度
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-10 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231220326
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引用次数: 0
Purging to Transform the Post-Colonial State: Evidence From the 1952 Egyptian Revolution 通过清洗来改造后殖民国家:1952 年埃及革命的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231209966
Neil Ketchley, Gilad Wenig
The post-WWII era saw junior military officers launch revolutionary coups in a number of post-colonial states. How did these events transform colonial-era state elites? We theorize that the inexperienced leaders of revolutionary coups had to choose between purging threats and delivering ambitious projects of state-led transformation, leading to a threat-competence calculation that patterned elite turnover. To illustrate our argument, we trace the careers of 674 high-ranking officials in Egypt following the Free Officers’ seizure of power in July 1952. A multilevel survival analysis shows that officials connected to Egypt’s deposed monarch and very senior officials were most vulnerable to being purged. Experienced bureaucrats and those with university education were more likely to be retained. This threat-competence calculation also informed which ministries experienced more purging. Qualitative triangulation with biographies, memoirs, newspaper reports, and speeches corroborates the mechanism. The findings show why radical state-led change often requires a degree of elite-level continuity.
二战后,一些后殖民国家的初级军官发动了革命政变。这些事件如何改变了殖民时代的国家精英?我们的理论是,缺乏经验的革命政变领导人必须在清除威胁和实施由国家主导的雄心勃勃的转型项目之间做出选择,这导致了精英更替模式的威胁-能力计算。为了说明我们的论点,我们追溯了1952年7月自由军官夺取政权后埃及674名高级官员的职业生涯。一项多层次的生存分析显示,与埃及被废黜的君主有关的官员和非常高级的官员最容易被清洗。经验丰富的官僚和受过大学教育的人更有可能被保留。这种威胁能力的计算也告诉我们哪些部门经历了更多的清洗。通过传记、回忆录、报纸报道和演讲进行的定性三角分析证实了这一机制。研究结果表明,为什么政府主导的激进变革往往需要一定程度的精英阶层的连续性。
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引用次数: 0
The Loser’s Long Curse: How Exposure to Class Conflict Shapes Election Outcomes 失败者的漫长诅咒:阶级冲突如何影响选举结果
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231209962
Jaakko Meriläinen, Matti Mitrunen
Understanding the political consequences of civil war exposure is a challenging task, given the myriad of overlapping and at times divergent mechanisms involved. This article provides evidence of the persistent political legacy stemming from exposure to a violent class conflict. We revisit the Finnish Civil War of 1918 and first trace out the impact of local conflict exposure on electoral outcomes over a quarter-century period between the World Wars. To do so, we combine a difference-in-differences approach with historical data on the geographical distribution of civil war casualties and election outcomes. We document that the local electoral performance of left-wing parties that were associated with the insurgents was persistently and negatively affected by civil war casualties on both sides of the conflict. We also discuss potential mechanisms behind this finding and further show that the civil war had an enduring impact on the Finnish political landscape over a hundred years.
考虑到所涉及的无数重叠的、有时是不同的机制,理解内战曝光的政治后果是一项具有挑战性的任务。本文提供了暴露于暴力阶级冲突的持久政治遗产的证据。我们回顾了1918年的芬兰内战,并首先追溯了在两次世界大战之间的四分之一世纪期间,地方冲突对选举结果的影响。为此,我们将差异中的差异方法与内战伤亡和选举结果的地理分布的历史数据结合起来。我们证明,与叛乱分子有关联的左翼政党的地方选举表现持续受到冲突双方内战伤亡的负面影响。我们还讨论了这一发现背后的潜在机制,并进一步表明内战对芬兰政治格局产生了一百多年的持久影响。
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引用次数: 0
Contagion From Abroad. How Party Entry in Western Europe is Influenced by Party Family Members Abroad, 1961–2016 来自海外的传染。1961-2016 年西欧入党情况如何受到国外党员家庭成员的影响
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-21 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231204228
Marc van de Wardt, J. Pilet, Gijs Schumacher, Arjen van Witteloostuijn
New parties are a key mechanism behind party system innovation as voters are offered new choices. To explain party entry (i.e. participation in a lower house election for the first time), the state-of-the-art has typically focused on domestic determinants. This, however, assumes that party entry takes place in an international vacuum. Building on the policy diffusion literature, we explore how party family members abroad influence party entry in the focal country. Based on a new dataset on the evolution of each party family in 17 Western European party systems between 1961 and 2016, including 2191 new parties, our mixed-methods approach combining spatial econometric models with pathway case analysis demonstrates that party entry is influenced by the entry and electoral success of their party family abroad. This has important implications for the literature on party entry and the international diffusion of policy platforms.
新政党是政党制度创新背后的一个关键机制,因为选民可以有新的选择。为了解释政党加入(即首次参加下议院选举),最新研究通常侧重于国内决定因素。然而,这假定了政党参选是在国际真空中进行的。在政策扩散文献的基础上,我们探讨了国外政党家族成员如何影响焦点国家的政党加入。基于 1961 年至 2016 年间 17 个西欧政党体系(包括 2191 个新政党)中每个政党家族演变的新数据集,我们将空间计量经济模型与路径案例分析相结合的混合方法证明,政党的加入受到其国外政党家族的加入和选举成功的影响。这对有关政党进入和政策平台国际传播的文献具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
After the Genocide: Proximity to Victims and Support for Punishing Ingroup Crimes 种族灭绝之后:对受害者的接近和对惩罚群体内犯罪的支持
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231209964
Volha Charnysh, Sascha Riaz
What explains divergent transitional justice preferences among political elites after genocide? We argue that elite preferences vary with their proximity to the victimized group. Individuals who know the victims personally and/or have witnessed violence against them may be more likely to support punishing the perpetrators, possibly because they experience collective guilt. We support this argument using an original biographical dataset on the members of the West German parliament, linking their location and experiences during the Third Reich to free roll-call votes on extending the statute of limitations for murder in 1965–69. We find that proximity to synagogues, particularly those attacked in November 1938, predicts support for extending the statute, conditional on party, state, mandate type, denomination, and a host of personal attributes. We also find significantly lower support for extending the statute among former NSDAP members. Our findings highlight the importance of bystander experiences in shaping support for retributive justice.
如何解释种族灭绝后政治精英对过渡正义的不同偏好?我们认为,精英的偏好随着他们与受害群体的接近程度而变化。认识受害者和/或目睹暴力侵害受害者的人可能更有可能支持惩罚施暴者,这可能是因为他们经历了集体内疚。我们使用西德议会成员的原始传记数据集来支持这一论点,将他们在第三帝国期间的位置和经历与1965-69年关于延长谋杀诉讼时效的免费点名投票联系起来。我们发现,靠近犹太教堂,特别是那些在1938年11月遭到袭击的犹太教堂,预示着对延长法令的支持,这取决于政党、州、命令类型、教派和许多个人属性。我们还发现,在前纳粹党成员中,支持延长法规的人数明显较低。我们的研究结果强调了旁观者经验在形成对报复性正义的支持方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 1
Substantive Representation, Women’s Health, and Regime Type 实质性代表、妇女健康和制度类型
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231204222
Valeriya Mechkova, Amanda B. Edgell
A large body of literature investigates whether increasing the number of women in legislative office translates into policies that benefit women in society. This research builds upon theories about descriptive and substantive representation. However, these theories may not travel well to authoritarian contexts, where we see some of the largest gains in women legislators in recent years. This article unpacks the link between women’s descriptive representation, healthcare spending, and health outcomes by regime type. Using a sample of 169 countries from 2000 to 2018, we find that the percentage of women legislators is associated with increased healthcare spending across all regimes. However, women’s health outcomes do not improve with women’s descriptive representation in closed autocracies. Meanwhile, the results for democracies and electoral autocracies are similar, suggesting that even limited vertical accountability through semi-competitive elections may facilitate substantive representation of women.
大量文献调查了立法机构中女性人数的增加是否会转化为有利于社会中女性的政策。本研究建立在描述性和实质性表征理论的基础上。然而,这些理论可能无法很好地适用于专制环境,在这些环境中,我们看到近年来女性立法者的一些最大进步。这篇文章揭示了女性描述性代表、医疗保健支出和按政体类型划分的健康结果之间的联系。我们使用2000年至2018年169个国家的样本发现,在所有制度中,女性立法者的比例与医疗支出的增加有关。然而,在封闭的专制国家中,妇女的健康状况并没有随着妇女代表性的增加而改善。与此同时,民主政体和选举专制政体的结果是相似的,这表明,即使是通过半竞争性选举产生的有限的纵向问责制,也可能促进妇女的实质性代表。
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引用次数: 0
Well-Behaved Women: Engendering Political Interest in Public Opinion Research 行为端正的妇女:在民意调查中产生政治兴趣
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231209961
Erum A. Haider, Irfan Nooruddin
Women form a large part of the voting public in India. In the 2009 Indian National Election post-election survey, 82% of all adult women surveyed reported voting, but only 32% said that they were interested in politics. The paradox between high female turnout but low levels of interest has been noted in multiple developing country contexts, but the phenomenon is under-theorized. We suggest the reason is that women’s ideas (interest in politics) are discouraged and suppressed by societal patriarchal norms enforced in the household, but women’s bodies (their votes) are valued in competitive elections. We illustrate our argument using matched samples from two rounds (2009 and 2014) of the Indian National Election Survey and an original post-election survey in 2019. We find that women are consistently less likely to report either an interest in politics, or an opinion on political issues, if their spouse or an adult family member observes the interview. Our findings suggest that women’s political agency is systematically under-estimated by researchers, and that women are more likely to assert themselves politically in survey contexts, if given the privacy to do so.
妇女在印度选民中占很大比例。在2009年印度全国大选的选后调查中,82%的受访成年女性表示参加了投票,但只有32%的人表示对政治感兴趣。许多发展中国家都注意到妇女投票率高但兴趣低的矛盾现象,但对这种现象的理论解释不足。我们认为原因是女性的想法(对政治的兴趣)受到家庭中强制执行的社会父权规范的阻碍和压制,但女性的身体(她们的选票)在竞争性选举中受到重视。我们使用来自两轮(2009年和2014年)印度全国选举调查和2019年最初的选举后调查的匹配样本来说明我们的论点。我们发现,如果她们的配偶或成年家庭成员观察了采访,那么女性一直不太可能报告对政治的兴趣或对政治问题的看法。我们的研究结果表明,研究人员系统地低估了女性的政治代理,如果给予女性足够的隐私,女性更有可能在调查环境中主张自己的政治主张。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Comparative Political Studies
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