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An Open-Source Framework for Virtual Bioequivalence Modeling and Clinical Trial Design 虚拟生物等效性建模和临床试验设计的开源框架。
IF 3 3区 医学 Q2 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.70115
Abdullah Hamadeh, Moriah Pellowe, Pierre Chelle, Cindy Hoi Ting Yeung, Julian Otalvaro, Walter Yamada, Jay Bartroff, Alona Kryshchenko, André Dallmann, Juri Solodenko, Jörg Lippert, Eleftheria Tsakalozou, Michael Neely, Andrea Edginton

To establish bioequivalence (BE) of a generic test formulation with respect to a reference listed drug, it is necessary to demonstrate a comparable rate and extent to which active ingredients reach the site of action. To decrease unnecessary human testing and simulate scenarios involving specific populations or challenges with recruitment or study design, industry and regulators are increasingly considering in silico virtual bioequivalence (VBE) approaches. This tutorial introduces the VBEToolbox R package: a toolbox within the Open Systems Pharmacology framework to streamline and standardize computational VBE workflows. The package integrates in vitro and in vivo data to train pharmacokinetic models through inference of inter-individual variability from clinical data and establishment of in vitro to in vivo extrapolations. A nonparametric approach is adopted to account for uncertainties from parameter non-identifiability. The trained model is then applied to determine the study size with statistical power needed to demonstrate BE virtually. The use of the VBE tool is illustrated with two case studies. The first evaluates the VBE of petrolatum and ethylene glycol dermal formulations of testosterone by integrating in vitro skin permeation tests, vehicle/skin partitioning data, testosterone solubility data, and in vivo absorption data in a mechanistic in vitro/in vivo dermal absorption model. The second assesses the VBE of two oral bupropion formulations by integrating in vitro dissolution data in a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model. These case studies highlight essential considerations for model development, training, and extrapolation toward application for VBE assessment.

为了确定仿制试验制剂相对于参考药物的生物等效性(BE),必须证明活性成分到达作用部位的可比速率和程度。为了减少不必要的人体测试和模拟涉及特定人群的场景或招聘或研究设计的挑战,行业和监管机构越来越多地考虑计算机虚拟生物等效性(VBE)方法。本教程介绍了VBEToolbox R包:开放系统药理学框架中的一个工具箱,用于简化和标准化计算VBE工作流程。该软件包整合了体外和体内数据,通过从临床数据推断个体间的差异,并建立体外到体内的外推,来训练药代动力学模型。采用非参数方法来解释参数不可辨识带来的不确定性。然后将训练好的模型应用于确定研究规模和所需的统计能力,以虚拟地证明BE。通过两个案例研究说明了VBE工具的使用。第一项研究通过综合体外皮肤渗透试验、载体/皮肤分配数据、睾酮溶解度数据和体内吸收数据,在一个机械的体外/体内皮肤吸收模型中评估凡士林和乙二醇真皮配方睾酮的VBE。第二项研究通过在基于生理的药代动力学模型中整合体外溶出度数据来评估两种口服安非他酮制剂的VBE。这些案例研究强调了模型开发、培训和VBE评估应用的外推的基本考虑。
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引用次数: 0
A Population Pharmacokinetic Approach to Understand the Effect of Efavirenz on CYP3A Activity in Healthy Volunteers Using Midazolam as a Probe 以咪达唑仑为探针的人群药代动力学方法了解依非韦伦对健康志愿者CYP3A活性的影响。
IF 3 3区 医学 Q2 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.70116
Kimberly S. Collins, Blessed W. Aruldhas, Ingrid F. Metzger, Jessica B. L. Lu, Michael A. Heathman, Sara K. Quinney, Zeruesenay Desta

Efavirenz induces and inhibits multiple drug-metabolizing enzymes, contributing to significant drug–drug interactions. This study quantified the impact of multiple doses of efavirenz on CYP3A activity via midazolam metabolism using a population pharmacokinetic approach. Healthy volunteers received 1 mg midazolam orally in two sessions: first with a single 600 mg efavirenz dose and then after chronic efavirenz dosing (600 mg/day for 17 days). Midazolam and 1′-hydroxymidazolam were quantified via LC–MS/MS, and CYP2B6, CYP3A4, and CYP3A5 genotypes were assessed using TaqMan assays. Seventy-two volunteers (n = 72) completed sampling after the initial dose, and 58 completed both occasions. Non-linear mixed effects modeling was performed using the stochastic approximation expectation maximization estimation method in NONMEM. The base pharmacokinetic model employed was a two-compartment model with first-order absorption and first-order elimination, incorporating proportional error terms for midazolam and 1′-hydroxymidazolam. Covariate analysis utilized a full model approach to assess the impact of CYP3A4 and CYP3A5 genotypes, self-reported sex, and multiple doses of efavirenz as covariates affecting the formation clearance of 1-OH midazolam. CYP3A5 expressors exhibited a 1.27-fold increase in midazolam clearance compared to non-expressors, while CYP3A4 intermediate metabolizers showed a 0.94-fold decrease relative to normal metabolizers. Clearance was also 1.30-fold higher in females compared to males. Multiple doses of efavirenz increased midazolam clearance by 1.92-fold (95% CI 1.65–2.28) after accounting for inter-individual variability caused by other covariates. Furthermore, Ka and bioavailability (F) increased with repeated efavirenz exposure. In conclusion, this population pharmacokinetic analysis effectively quantified the specific induction effect of multiple doses of efavirenz on CYP3A compared to a single dose of efavirenz.

Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00668395

Efavirenz诱导和抑制多种药物代谢酶,导致显著的药物相互作用。本研究使用群体药代动力学方法量化了多剂量依非韦伦通过咪达唑仑代谢对CYP3A活性的影响。健康志愿者分两次口服1mg咪达唑仑:第一次服用600mg伊法韦伦,然后服用慢性伊法韦伦(600mg /天,连续17天)。采用LC-MS/MS定量咪达唑仑和1′-羟咪达唑仑,采用TaqMan检测CYP2B6、CYP3A4和CYP3A5基因型。72名志愿者(n = 72)在初始剂量后完成了采样,58名志愿者在两种情况下都完成了采样。采用随机逼近期望最大化估计方法对非线性混合效应进行建模。采用的基础药代动力学模型为一阶吸收和一阶消除的双室模型,并纳入咪达唑仑和1′-羟咪达唑仑的比例误差项。协变量分析采用全模型方法评估CYP3A4和CYP3A5基因型、自我报告的性别和多剂量依非韦伦作为影响1-OH咪达唑仑形成清除的协变量的影响。与非表达者相比,CYP3A5表达者对咪达唑仑的清除率增加了1.27倍,而CYP3A4中间代谢物相对于正常代谢物减少了0.94倍。女性的清除率也比男性高1.30倍。考虑到其他协变量引起的个体间差异,多剂量的依非韦伦使咪达唑仑清除率增加了1.92倍(95% CI 1.65-2.28)。此外,Ka和生物利用度(F)随着反复暴露于依非韦伦而增加。总之,这个群体药代动力学分析有效地量化了多剂量依非韦伦对CYP3A的特异性诱导作用,而不是单剂量依非韦伦。试验注册:ClinicalTrials.gov标识符:NCT00668395。
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引用次数: 0
Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling and Pediatric Exposure of Dexamethasone Sodium Phosphate Encapsulated in Erythrocytes (eDSP) Administered Monthly for Treatment of Neurological Symptoms of Patients With Ataxia Telangiectasia 红细胞包封地塞米松磷酸钠(eDSP)治疗共济失调毛细血管扩张患者神经系统症状的人群药代动力学模型和儿童暴露
IF 3 3区 医学 Q2 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.70103
Deniz Ozdin, Leila Kheibarshekan, Giovanni Mambrini, Pierre-Olivier Tremblay

The EryDex System (EDS) is a drug/device combination, which has been tested in clinical trials for ataxia telangiectasia (AT). EDS encapsulates dexamethasone sodium phosphate (DSP) solution in autologous erythrocytes at the point of care, and encapsulated DSP (eDSP) is infused back into the patient. Low doses of dexamethasone are released from erythrocytes over a 30-day period. This study aimed to (1) characterize the pharmacokinetics (PK) of dexamethasone released from intravenously infused eDSP based on data collected in clinical trials of healthy adults and pediatric AT patients, and to (2) simulate and extrapolate exposure measures of dexamethasone following intravenous infusion of eDSP administered once per month over 6 months in a pediatric population. The population PK model was developed using dense PK data from a phase 1 study in healthy adults and sparse PK data from a phase 3 study in pediatric AT patients. Three dose levels were studied, and the overall PK population included 24 healthy adults and 109 AT patients. The PK of dexamethasone released from eDSP was described using a simplified two-compartment model, adequate for estimating systemic exposure despite not fully capturing RBC release kinetics indicative of a triphasic pattern. The model showed a good fit, and future refinement will include mechanistic release modeling as more in vitro and in vivo data become available. Monte Carlo simulations of eDSP showed a rapid peak at 0.67 h, followed by sustained dexamethasone release; faster in the first 24 h, then slower over 20–30 days. No accumulation occurred with once-monthly dosing.

EryDex系统(EDS)是一种药物/设备组合,已经在治疗共济失调毛细血管扩张症(AT)的临床试验中进行了测试。EDS在护理点将地塞米松磷酸钠(DSP)溶液包封在自体红细胞中,并将包封的DSP (eDSP)输注回患者体内。低剂量地塞米松在30天内从红细胞中释放。本研究旨在(1)基于健康成人和儿科AT患者临床试验收集的数据,表征静脉输注eDSP释放地塞米松的药代动力学(PK),以及(2)模拟和推断儿科人群在6个月内每月静脉输注一次eDSP后地塞米松的暴露测量。人群PK模型是根据健康成人1期研究的密集PK数据和儿科AT患者3期研究的稀疏PK数据建立的。研究了三种剂量水平,总体PK人群包括24名健康成年人和109名AT患者。eDSP释放的地塞米松的PK用简化的双室模型描述,尽管没有完全捕获指示三相模式的红细胞释放动力学,但足以估计全身暴露。该模型显示出良好的拟合性,随着更多体外和体内数据的可用,未来的改进将包括机制释放模型。蒙特卡罗模拟显示,eDSP在0.67 h快速达到峰值,随后持续释放地塞米松;在最初的24小时内更快,然后在20-30天内变慢。每月给药一次未发生蓄积。
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引用次数: 0
A Dose-Aware Model for Revealing Dose-Risk Relationship of Drug–Drug Interaction 揭示药物-药物相互作用剂量-风险关系的剂量感知模型。
IF 3 3区 医学 Q2 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.70114
Yi Shi, Anna Sun, Yuedi Yang, Hongmei Nan, Jing Xu, Mu Shan, Michael T. Eadon, Jing Su, Pengyue Zhang

Drug–drug interaction (DDI) is a common cause of adverse drug events (ADEs). Despite real-world data-based studies have developed knowledge on DDI, the precise relationships between doses of two-drug combinations exposure and the risks of ADEs remain largely unknown. The estimation of the dose-risk relationship (DRR) under commonly used regression models could be subject to model misspecification or overspecification. We developed a dose-aware model (DAM) for revealing DRR. DAM could improve the DRR estimation by identifying the optimal model from a large number of meaningful models of doses of two-drug combinations exposure and risks of ADE. We compared DAM with commonly used models (e.g., exposed-versus-unexposed model, dose-response model, and saturated model), in which DAM had higher performance metrics on model fitting in real-world data analyses and DRR estimation in a simulation study. In conclusion, DAM is a powerful tool for estimating DRR for potential adverse two-drug combinations, which could be used to mitigate DDI-induced harm.

药物-药物相互作用(DDI)是药物不良事件(ADEs)的常见原因。尽管基于真实世界数据的研究已经发展了关于DDI的知识,但两种药物联合暴露剂量与ade风险之间的确切关系在很大程度上仍然未知。在常用的回归模型下对剂量-风险关系(DRR)的估计可能存在模型错配或过配的问题。我们开发了一个剂量感知模型(DAM)来揭示DRR。DAM可以通过从大量有意义的双药联合暴露剂量和ADE风险模型中识别出最优模型来改进DRR估计。我们将DAM与常用的模型(例如,暴露与未暴露模型,剂量-反应模型和饱和模型)进行了比较,其中DAM在真实数据分析中的模型拟合和模拟研究中的DRR估计方面具有更高的性能指标。总之,DAM是估计潜在不良双药联合dr的有力工具,可用于减轻ddi引起的伤害。
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引用次数: 0
Nipocalimab Dose Selection in Generalized Myasthenia Gravis 尼波卡利单抗治疗广泛性重症肌无力的剂量选择。
IF 3 3区 医学 Q2 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.70109
Belén Valenzuela, Martine Neyens, Yaowei Zhu, Sindhu Ramchandren, Anne-Gaëlle Dosne, Jocelyn H. Leu, Ruben Faelens, Leona E. Ling, Juan-José Pérez-Ruixo

Nipocalimab is a fully human immunoglobulin G (IgG)1 monoclonal antibody (mAb) designed to selectively block the IgG binding site of neonatal fragment crystallizable receptor (FcRn) to inhibit IgG recycling and decrease circulating IgG, including pathogenic IgG autoantibodies (such as antiacetylcholine receptor, anti-muscle-specific kinase, and anti-low-density lipoprotein-related protein 4 antibodies in generalized myasthenia gravis [gMG]). A mechanistic model, integrating serum nipocalimab concentrations, FcRn occupancy, and total serum IgG data from five phase 1 studies in healthy adult participants and one phase 2 (Vivacity-MG) study in adult participants with gMG, was developed. The relationship between total serum IgG reduction and placebo-corrected MG-Activities of Daily Living score change from baseline in participants with gMG was also characterized. Nipocalimab exhibited nonlinear target (FcRn)-mediated disposition, causing rapid, reversible, and concentration-dependent FcRn occupancy and IgG reduction (up to 85%) in healthy participants and participants with gMG. The PK of nipocalimab after a single intravenous (IV) administration is consistent with that after repeated IV administrations, with no accumulation following every 2 weeks (Q2W) dosing. The PK of nipocalimab and its effect on IgG reduction were similar between healthy participants and participants with gMG. Model-based simulations indicated that the IV dose of 15 mg/kg Q2W, starting 2 weeks after a 30 mg/kg IV loading dose, was the lowest Q2W maintenance dose predicted to achieve the target of 70% median of the average change in IgG reduction in participants with gMG and was the recommended dose for the pivotal phase 3 Vivacity-MG3 study in a gMG population.

Nipocalimab是一种全人源免疫球蛋白G (IgG)1单克隆抗体(mAb),可选择性阻断新生儿片段结晶受体(FcRn) IgG结合位点,抑制IgG再循环,减少循环IgG,包括致病性IgG自身抗体(如抗乙酰胆碱受体、抗肌肉特异性激酶、抗低密度脂蛋白相关蛋白4抗体)。我们建立了一个机制模型,整合了5项健康成人受试者的1期研究、1项成人gMG患者的2期研究(vivaci - mg)的血清尼波卡利单抗浓度、FcRn占用率和血清总IgG数据。gMG患者的血清总IgG降低与安慰剂校正的MG-Activities of Daily Living评分从基线变化之间的关系也被描述。Nipocalimab表现出非线性靶标(FcRn)介导的处理,在健康参与者和gMG参与者中引起快速、可逆和浓度依赖性的FcRn占用和IgG降低(高达85%)。单次静脉(IV)给药后nipocalimab的PK与多次静脉给药后的PK一致,每2周(Q2W)给药后无积累。尼波卡利单抗的PK值及其对IgG降低的影响在健康受试者和gMG受试者之间相似。基于模型的模拟表明,在静脉注射30mg /kg剂量2周后,15mg /kg Q2W的静脉注射剂量是gMG患者IgG减少平均变化中位数达到70%目标的最低Q2W维持剂量,也是关键3期vivaci - mg3研究中gMG人群的推荐剂量。
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引用次数: 0
QPRapp: A Web-Based Platform for PK/PD Simulations and Early Feasibility Analysis QPRapp:基于web的PK/PD模拟与早期可行性分析平台。
IF 3 3区 医学 Q2 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.70107
Saroj Dhakal, Yorgos M. Psarellis, Nikhil Pillai, Panteleimon D. Mavroudis

Quantitative pharmacology research application (QPRapp) is a web-based, interactive, and easy to use Shiny for Python interface, which facilitates evaluation of dose-exposure relationships, pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) assessment of small and large molecules, and calculation of target occupancy for mono-, bi-, and tri-specific molecules. The dashboard sidebar offers a streamlined approach that incorporates multiple inputs, with various drop-down options to conduct respective simulations. The user can specify the type of molecule (small or large), number of model's compartments (one or two), and for large molecules, the number of drug's targets (one, two, or three). Additionally, the user can choose among the four indirect response PD models and execute the corresponding PK/PD simulations for small molecules. The platform application allows users to easily export simulated scenarios as CSV files for further analysis. Boasting features such as target-mediated drug disposition (TMDD) and early feasibility analysis (EFA) for multi-specific molecules, this application can assist project teams with limited computational expertise in applying model-informed drug development (MIDD) during the early stages of drug discovery and development.

定量药理学研究应用程序(QPRapp)是一个基于web的、交互式的、易于使用的Shiny for Python界面,它有助于评估剂量-暴露关系,小分子和大分子的药代动力学/药效学(PK/PD)评估,以及计算单、双、三特异性分子的目标占用。仪表板侧边栏提供了一种简化的方法,它包含多个输入,并带有各种下拉选项来进行各自的模拟。用户可以指定分子的类型(小分子或大分子),模型室的数量(一个或两个),对于大分子,药物靶标的数量(一个、两个或三个)。此外,用户可以在四种间接响应PD模型中进行选择,并对小分子进行相应的PK/PD模拟。该平台应用程序允许用户轻松地将模拟场景导出为CSV文件,以便进行进一步分析。该应用程序具有目标介导的药物处置(TMDD)和多特异性分子的早期可行性分析(EFA)等功能,可以帮助项目团队在药物发现和开发的早期阶段应用基于模型的药物开发(MIDD)。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling and Simulation Identifies Endocytosis Uptake Rate and Fraction Unbound as Important Predictors of Oligonucleotide Pharmacokinetics 模型和模拟确定内吞摄取速率和未结合分数是寡核苷酸药代动力学的重要预测因子。
IF 3 3区 医学 Q2 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.70108
Felix Stader, Abdallah Derbalah, Adriana Zyla, Cong Liu, Iain Gardner, Armin Sepp

Therapeutic oligonucleotides (TOs) represent an emerging modality, which offers a promising alternative treatment option, particularly for intracellular targets. The two types of TOs, antisense oligonucleotides (ASO) and small interfering RNAs (siRNAs), distribute highly into tissues, especially into the liver and the kidneys. However, molecular processes at the cellular level such as the uptake into the cell, endosomal escape, binding to the target mRNA, and redistribution back to the systemic circulation are not well characterized because experimental data and assays are lacking. We developed a whole-body PBPK model for TOs and verified the predictive performance against clinically observed data for three ASOs and five siRNAs. The predicted concentration-time profiles were in accordance with the clinically observed data for all investigated TOs, and all pharmacokinetic parameters were predicted within twofold. Sensitivity analysis with the evaluated PBPK model revealed that the endocytosis uptake rate and the fraction unbound in plasma impact the peak concentration (Cmax), time to Cmax (tmax), and the area under the curve (AUC) of a subcutaneously administered ASO, whereas the redistribution rate and the nuclease clearance had minor to no impact. The mathematical model can guide the development of required in vitro assays for key parameters to better understand the pharmacokinetics of TOs. PBPK models, parameterized with reliable in vitro data, could be used in the future to predict the pharmacokinetics in special populations with limited clinical data to ensure a safe and effective therapy.

治疗性寡核苷酸(TOs)代表了一种新兴的模式,它提供了一种有希望的替代治疗选择,特别是对于细胞内靶点。反义寡核苷酸(ASO)和小干扰rna (sirna)这两种TOs在组织中高度分布,特别是在肝脏和肾脏中。然而,由于缺乏实验数据和分析,细胞水平的分子过程,如进入细胞、内体逃逸、与靶mRNA结合以及再分配回体循环等,并没有很好地表征。我们开发了TOs的全身PBPK模型,并根据3种aso和5种sirna的临床观察数据验证了其预测性能。预测的浓度-时间曲线与所有研究TOs的临床观察数据一致,所有药代动力学参数的预测都在2倍以内。采用评价的PBPK模型进行敏感性分析,结果表明:血浆中未结合的酶解分数和内吞摄取率对皮下注射ASO的峰值浓度(Cmax)、到达Cmax的时间(tmax)和曲线下面积(AUC)有影响,而再分布率和核酸酶清除率则有轻微或无影响。该数学模型可以指导关键参数的体外测定,更好地了解TOs的药代动力学。采用可靠的体外数据参数化PBPK模型,未来可用于在临床数据有限的特殊人群中预测药代动力学,以确保安全有效的治疗。
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引用次数: 0
Response to “Enhance Multistate Models With Clinically Meaningful Graphs” 对“用临床有意义的图形增强多状态模型”的回应。
IF 3 3区 医学 Q2 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.70111
Moustafa M. A. Ibrahim, Maria C. Kjellsson, Mats O. Karlsson

We thank Dr. Grevel for his interest in our article [1] and appreciate the opportunity to further clarify and elaborate on aspects of our analysis.

First, however, we would like to address a few apparent misunderstandings in Dr. Grevel's commentary [2]. Contrary to his assertion, the dataset we analyzed was not limited to the ten-year component of the FDPS. As detailed in the Data section of our article, the analysis also incorporated long-term follow-up data, which is further described in reference [3].

Dr. Grevel also noted that our model did not account for time-dependent hazards within transient states. However, our model does indeed incorporate such a feature, as the hazard functions for all transient states include time-varying age in a Gompertz-Makeham component.

Regarding the dependence of transitions on prior states, Dr. Grevel suggested that our model omits potential pathway-dependent transitions. While such modeling considerations can be appropriate when patients may reach a transient state via multiple distinct routes, this is not applicable in our case. In our model, there is no heterogeneity in the upstream pathways leading to any of the transient states.

Dr. Grevel notes the absence of certain figures that resemble those in a previous publication he co-authored [4]. One such figure corresponds closely to our figure 2. However, in our presentation, each trajectory is shown in a separate panel, enabling a clearer depiction of the agreement between model predictions and observed data. Also, Dr. Grevel would like us to display the sojourn times of the subjects in the study, which is not possible in our case due to the interval censoring. Finally, Dr. Grevel wondered whether the model could predict in which state a patient with a certain set of apparently significant covariates will most likely be, for example, 10 years after being assigned to one of the two intervention groups. This is already available in figure 2, which includes the model simulation of the probabilities of the different states over the whole study and follow-up period under the observed study design and covariates.

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

我们感谢Grevel博士对我们的文章b[1]的兴趣,并感谢有机会进一步澄清和阐述我们分析的各个方面。然而,首先,我们想澄清一下格雷维尔博士评论b[2]中一些明显的误解。与他的断言相反,我们分析的数据集并不局限于FDPS的十年组成部分。正如我们文章的数据部分所详述的那样,该分析还纳入了长期随访数据,这在参考文献bbb中有进一步描述。Grevel还指出,我们的模型没有考虑瞬态中随时间变化的危险。然而,我们的模型确实包含了这样一个特征,因为所有瞬态的危险函数都包含了Gompertz-Makeham分量中的时变年龄。关于转换对先前状态的依赖,Grevel博士建议我们的模型忽略了潜在的通路依赖转换。虽然当患者可能通过多种不同的途径达到短暂状态时,这样的建模考虑可能是合适的,但这不适用于我们的情况。在我们的模型中,上游途径没有异质性,导致任何一种瞬态。格雷维尔指出,在他之前与人合著的一篇文章b[4]中,缺少与之相似的某些数字。其中一个图形与我们的图2非常相似。然而,在我们的报告中,每条轨迹都显示在一个单独的面板中,从而能够更清晰地描述模型预测和观测数据之间的一致性。此外,格雷维尔博士希望我们显示研究对象的逗留时间,由于间隔审查,这在我们的情况下是不可能的。最后,格雷维尔博士想知道,该模型是否能够预测,例如,在被分配到两个干预组之一的10年后,具有一组明显显著的协变量的患者最有可能处于哪种状态。这已经在图2中得到,其中包括在观察到的研究设计和协变量下,对整个研究和随访期间不同状态的概率的模型模拟。作者声明无利益冲突。
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引用次数: 0
Enhance Multistate Models With Clinically Meaningful Graphs 用临床有意义的图形增强多状态模型。
IF 3 3区 医学 Q2 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.70110
Joachim Grevel
<p>It is a laudable effort to reanalyze historic datasets with improved methods as do Ibrahim et al. [<span>1</span>] with a quarter century-old study on diabetes prevention [<span>2</span>]. They state that the new analysis reduced potential bias in the original results by accounting for competing risks and by respecting the interval-censored nature of the data collection. This commentary does not focus on the lack of evidence that bias was indeed avoided. It asks instead the question of whether the new analysis presented meaningful and clinically interesting results.</p><p>Coming from a similar training background as the authors [<span>1</span>], I know the temptation to use time-proven and familiar software and to tweak the methods until the top-down, data-driven model fits. In the current analysis [<span>1</span>], NONMEM was applied to estimate rate parameters and covariate influences that govern the probabilities (P1, P2, P3, P4, and P5) for a subject to reside in any of the 5 possible states of a multistate model (figure 1 [<span>1</span>]).</p><p>Over the decades, some of us pharmacometric modelers have formed a community that has become rather insensitive to the physiologic meaning of the parameters we estimate (while others underwent the arduous work to build physiologically meaningful models). Consequently, we are content with models that are “fit-for-purpose”.</p><p>In that vein, the authors [<span>1</span>] show that the chosen final model fits the data (figures 2 and 4) and that 95% confidence intervals support the choice of significant covariates (figure 3). The question remains whether the results are meaningful and clinically interesting.</p><p>The model set-up (equations 10 through 15 [<span>1</span>]) follows the Markovian assumption that a transition into a future state depends only on the current state and not on the time spent in the current state nor on transitions from previous states. As with any longitudinal clinical data, the time already spent in a certain non-absorbing state should influence the hazard rates of future transitions. Thus, the multistate model should, in my opinion, be analyzed as a semi-Markov process.</p><p>I miss a presentation (as, e.g., in figure 5 of [<span>3</span>]) where all 5 state occupancy probabilities are displayed simultaneously at all times after the start of the study. I also think that a statistical hypothesis test should demonstrate how the intervention influences the time spent in certain passages of interest involving more than two neighboring states (as, e.g., in figure 6 of [<span>3</span>]). Finally, I wonder whether the model can actually predict in which state a patient with a certain set of apparently significant covariates (baseline BMI, HbA1c, insulin sensitivity, sex and age) will most likely be, for example, 10 years after being assigned to one of the two intervention groups.</p><p>Such displays and tests would in my eyes be more meaningful and clinically interesting than a
这是一个值得称赞的努力,用改进的方法重新分析历史数据集,正如Ibrahim等人用四分之一世纪前的糖尿病预防研究所做的那样。他们指出,新的分析通过考虑竞争风险和尊重数据收集的间隔审查性质,减少了原始结果中的潜在偏差。这篇评论并不关注缺乏证据证明确实避免了偏见。相反,它提出的问题是,新的分析是否提出了有意义和临床有趣的结果。与作者[1]有着相似的培训背景,我知道使用经过时间验证和熟悉的软件并调整方法直到自上而下的数据驱动模型适合的诱惑。在当前的分析[1]中,NONMEM被用于估计控制概率(P1, P2, P3, P4和P5)的速率参数和协变量影响,以确定受试者处于多状态模型的5种可能状态中的任何一种(图1[1])。几十年来,我们中的一些药物计量建模者已经形成了一个社区,对我们估计的参数的生理意义变得相当不敏感(而其他人则经历了艰巨的工作来建立有生理意义的模型)。因此,我们满足于“适合目的”的模型。在这种情况下,作者[1]表明所选择的最终模型符合数据(图2和4),95%的置信区间支持重要协变量的选择(图3)。问题仍然是这些结果是否有意义,在临床上是否有趣。模型设置(公式10到15[1])遵循马尔可夫假设,即过渡到未来状态仅取决于当前状态,而不取决于在当前状态中花费的时间,也不取决于从以前状态的过渡。与任何纵向临床数据一样,已经处于某种非吸收状态的时间应该会影响未来转变的危险率。因此,在我看来,多状态模型应该作为半马尔可夫过程来分析。我错过了一个演示(例如,b[3]的图5),在研究开始后的任何时候都同时显示所有5个状态的占用概率。我还认为,统计假设检验应该证明干预如何影响在涉及两个以上相邻状态的某些感兴趣的段落中花费的时间(例如,b[3]的图6)。最后,我想知道这个模型是否真的可以预测,例如,在被分配到两个干预组之一的10年后,具有一组明显显著的协变量(基线BMI、HbA1c、胰岛素敏感性、性别和年龄)的患者最有可能处于哪种状态。在我看来,这样的展示和测试比“开发的模型[…]表明生活方式的改变显著降低了患糖尿病和死亡的风险”的声明更有意义,也更有临床意义。也许作者会找时间制作一些展示,向读者展示他们声称的风险降低。作者声明无利益冲突。
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引用次数: 0
Rosuvastatin PBPK Modeling: Incorporating Liver Concentrations and Effects of Ethnicity, Genetic Polymorphisms, Lactone Formation, DDI and Pregnancy 瑞舒伐他汀PBPK模型:结合肝脏浓度和种族、遗传多态性、内酯形成、DDI和妊娠的影响。
IF 3 3区 医学 Q2 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.70097
Ankit Balhara, Robert H. Weber, Jashvant D. Unadkat

Rosuvastatin (RSV), a potent HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor, is widely used for the management of hyperlipidemia and prevention of cardiovascular disease. Its absorption and disposition are primarily transporter-mediated, involving intestinal absorption by OATP2B1 and efflux by BCRP; hepatic uptake by OATP1B1, OATP1B3, OATP2B1, and NTCP; and biliary excretion by BCRP and MRP2. Given its minimal metabolism, RSV serves as a model substrate for transporter-based drug absorption, disposition, and DDI studies. We developed and verified a PBPK model of RSV using a middle-out approach, incorporating extensive in vitro and in vivo data. The model was verified with > 75 datasets, including plasma and hepatic RSV concentrations from PET imaging studies. The model successfully captured RSV PK profiles in the Caucasian, Chinese, Malay, Japanese, and Korean populations. It also accurately captured the interconversion of RSV and RSV-lactone, changes in RSV PK due to OATP1B1 and BCRP polymorphisms, and DDI with rifampin or cyclosporine. Sensitivity analyses revealed that reduced hepatic OATP1B1 activity and/or intestinal BCRP efflux are likely determinants of altered RSV PK in the third trimester. Compared to previous models, our model extensively incorporates genetic polymorphisms, ethnic variability, reversible metabolism to the lactone, DDI, and pregnancy, allowing its use in the future to facilitate RSV dose optimization in multiple populations, including pregnant individuals.

瑞舒伐他汀(RSV)是一种有效的HMG-CoA还原酶抑制剂,广泛用于治疗高脂血症和预防心血管疾病。其吸收和处置主要是转运蛋白介导的,包括OATP2B1的肠道吸收和BCRP的外排;OATP1B1、OATP1B3、OATP2B1和NTCP的肝摄取;BCRP和MRP2对胆汁排泄的影响。鉴于其最低的代谢,RSV可作为基于转运体的药物吸收、处置和DDI研究的模型底物。我们使用中间方法开发并验证了RSV的PBPK模型,并结合了大量的体外和体内数据。该模型用bbbb75数据集进行了验证,包括PET成像研究的血浆和肝脏RSV浓度。该模型成功捕获了高加索人、中国人、马来人、日本人和韩国人的RSV PK谱。它还准确地捕获了RSV与RSV-内酯的相互转化,由于OATP1B1和BCRP多态性引起的RSV PK的变化,以及利福平或环孢素的DDI。敏感性分析显示,肝脏OATP1B1活性降低和/或肠道BCRP外排可能是妊娠晚期RSV PK改变的决定因素。与以前的模型相比,我们的模型广泛地纳入了遗传多态性、种族差异、内酯可逆代谢、DDI和妊娠,允许其在未来用于促进包括怀孕个体在内的多个人群的RSV剂量优化。
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引用次数: 0
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CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology
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