The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is the latest addition to an existing block of international financial institutions with the objective of providing infrastructural developmental funding to member nations. Incumbent players including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) are all dominated by countries such as the United States for the Western countries in the IMF and World Bank and Japan for the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in the APAC region. The genesis of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has been met with mixed reactions by different audiences across the globe, due to the founding nation’s (People’s Republic of China) international perception in the zeitgeist. Are the optimism premature or such skepticism unfounded and bias?To assess the pros and cons of a new international financial institution led by China (short for People’s Republic of China), we first look at the overall macro landscape in this environment. The United States has been leading the pact in the IMF and the World Bank, being a dominant member in both institutions since inception. The IMF was created as a result of the signing of the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, and officially came into existence in 1945 with 29 member nations. Armed with the mission of restructuring the international payment system, member nations contribute funds to a pool through a quota system from which countries with payment imbalances can borrow. The IMF is headquartered in Washington DC, signifying The United States’ prominence in this organization. Currently, the IMF has 188 member countries on their roster. The World Bank is the international financing arm of the United Nations, as part of the United Nations Development Group, provides loans to developing countries for capital programs and trades facilitation. The World Bank and the IMF share the same origin in the sense they both originated as a result of the Bretton Woods Conference and they are both headquartered in Washington DC. The United States is the most powerful member for the World Bank, just as in the IMF. On the other end of the global geo-political spectrum, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) was established in 1966 as a regional development bank with headquarter in the Philippines, to facilitate economic development in Asia. Closely modeled after the World Bank, with admitted members of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for APAC, the ADB maintains strong and close ties with the United States with Japan leading the pact in the APAC region.Given the fact that all incumbent international financial institutions having an uneven distribution of influence, specifically referring to the United States and allies monopolizing the landscape, shaping policies that are geo-politically favoring the dominant members and neglecting a representation of influences that are not of your status quo, would it make sense for China to step up in today’s globa
{"title":"The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) Enigma","authors":"Hanson Ku","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2684033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2684033","url":null,"abstract":"The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is the latest addition to an existing block of international financial institutions with the objective of providing infrastructural developmental funding to member nations. Incumbent players including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) are all dominated by countries such as the United States for the Western countries in the IMF and World Bank and Japan for the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in the APAC region. The genesis of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has been met with mixed reactions by different audiences across the globe, due to the founding nation’s (People’s Republic of China) international perception in the zeitgeist. Are the optimism premature or such skepticism unfounded and bias?To assess the pros and cons of a new international financial institution led by China (short for People’s Republic of China), we first look at the overall macro landscape in this environment. The United States has been leading the pact in the IMF and the World Bank, being a dominant member in both institutions since inception. The IMF was created as a result of the signing of the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, and officially came into existence in 1945 with 29 member nations. Armed with the mission of restructuring the international payment system, member nations contribute funds to a pool through a quota system from which countries with payment imbalances can borrow. The IMF is headquartered in Washington DC, signifying The United States’ prominence in this organization. Currently, the IMF has 188 member countries on their roster. The World Bank is the international financing arm of the United Nations, as part of the United Nations Development Group, provides loans to developing countries for capital programs and trades facilitation. The World Bank and the IMF share the same origin in the sense they both originated as a result of the Bretton Woods Conference and they are both headquartered in Washington DC. The United States is the most powerful member for the World Bank, just as in the IMF. On the other end of the global geo-political spectrum, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) was established in 1966 as a regional development bank with headquarter in the Philippines, to facilitate economic development in Asia. Closely modeled after the World Bank, with admitted members of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for APAC, the ADB maintains strong and close ties with the United States with Japan leading the pact in the APAC region.Given the fact that all incumbent international financial institutions having an uneven distribution of influence, specifically referring to the United States and allies monopolizing the landscape, shaping policies that are geo-politically favoring the dominant members and neglecting a representation of influences that are not of your status quo, would it make sense for China to step up in today’s globa","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123950532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Krishna M. Singh, R. Singh, Abhay Kumar, M. Meena, B. Shahi
Agriculture is at the core of Bihar’s economy, employing 77 % of the workforce and generating 35 % of the state domestic product. With 88 % of the state’s poor living in rural areas, improving agricultural performance and related rural non-farm activity is critical for improving livelihoods and reducing poverty. Major crops grown in Bihar are rice, wheat, maize, gram, red gram, sugarcane, potato & other vegetables. However, the agricultural sector in Bihar is plagued with numerous, and well known, constraints and problems. The present paper discusses the issues plaguing the agricultural sector in Bihar state, India and talks about the possible strategic interventions to make the best use of available resources adopting a multi-pronged strategy of development. It also talks about the area specific problems and suggests ways and means to tackle them.
{"title":"Agricultural Scenario and Strategies for Development: The Case of Bihar","authors":"Krishna M. Singh, R. Singh, Abhay Kumar, M. Meena, B. Shahi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2673372","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2673372","url":null,"abstract":"Agriculture is at the core of Bihar’s economy, employing 77 % of the workforce and generating 35 % of the state domestic product. With 88 % of the state’s poor living in rural areas, improving agricultural performance and related rural non-farm activity is critical for improving livelihoods and reducing poverty. Major crops grown in Bihar are rice, wheat, maize, gram, red gram, sugarcane, potato & other vegetables. However, the agricultural sector in Bihar is plagued with numerous, and well known, constraints and problems. The present paper discusses the issues plaguing the agricultural sector in Bihar state, India and talks about the possible strategic interventions to make the best use of available resources adopting a multi-pronged strategy of development. It also talks about the area specific problems and suggests ways and means to tackle them.","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123559034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In our current social, cultural and business environments, and for the foreseeable future, globalization is the rule. Even the taxi driver in Guadalajara, Mexico who thought he had no worries beyond having gas in the tank and being at the right spot during rush hour has to fight for survival against a growing behemoth known as Uber. In the end, no one is exempt of challenges and demands posed by globalization. For Multinational Corporations (MNC) in particular, the complexity of the challenges and demands require tailored strategies that not only respond to the changes, but can anticipate them – ultimately balancing between plans and being nimble enough to adapt to the ever-changing reality.This paper aims at finding ways to match strategies needed to specific challenges of MNCs. In doing so we will identify various strategies and analyze its merits and downfalls. In the process, we will first determine what a strategy is and why a firm needs one. We will then move to the drivers of globalization and what it means to strategic thinking; linking it to maximizing competitive and comparative advantages. Then, we will analyze some challenges faced when entering a foreign market and briefly discuss strategies needed to face those challenges. Finally, we will conclude that although it may be true that “there is no one best way to enter foreign markets”, there are certainly ways for an MNC to enter foreign markets, while minimizing risks and maximizing benefits.
{"title":"No Single Best Way to Enter Foreign Markets: MNCs Strategies to Make it Work (In the Globalized World) and Not Die Trying","authors":"Rodolfo C. Rivas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2669579","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2669579","url":null,"abstract":"In our current social, cultural and business environments, and for the foreseeable future, globalization is the rule. Even the taxi driver in Guadalajara, Mexico who thought he had no worries beyond having gas in the tank and being at the right spot during rush hour has to fight for survival against a growing behemoth known as Uber. In the end, no one is exempt of challenges and demands posed by globalization. For Multinational Corporations (MNC) in particular, the complexity of the challenges and demands require tailored strategies that not only respond to the changes, but can anticipate them – ultimately balancing between plans and being nimble enough to adapt to the ever-changing reality.This paper aims at finding ways to match strategies needed to specific challenges of MNCs. In doing so we will identify various strategies and analyze its merits and downfalls. In the process, we will first determine what a strategy is and why a firm needs one. We will then move to the drivers of globalization and what it means to strategic thinking; linking it to maximizing competitive and comparative advantages. Then, we will analyze some challenges faced when entering a foreign market and briefly discuss strategies needed to face those challenges. Finally, we will conclude that although it may be true that “there is no one best way to enter foreign markets”, there are certainly ways for an MNC to enter foreign markets, while minimizing risks and maximizing benefits.","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127840791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This research work examined the effect of exchange rate on Agricultural export in Nigerian from 1986-2012. The study utilized a parametric research design. However, secondary data was used to collect information related to the subject. The data was gathered from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2013. More importantly, the study revealed that the impact of exchange rate on Agricultural export in Nigeria was examined using ordinary least square analysis. Preliminary analyses were performed to ensure no violation of the assumptions of normality, linearity and homoscedasticity. It was revealed that the FCALCULATED = 461.066, while the FTABULATED = 3.07. From the results obtained, FCALCULATED > FTABULATED, therefore, the null hypothesis which says that exchange rate has no significant effect on agricultural export in Nigeria should be rejected while failing to reject the alternate hypothesis.
{"title":"Exchange Rate and Agricultural Export in Nigeria between 1986-2012","authors":"Ogunkoya Femi Adewale, Shobayo Peter Babatunde","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2642926","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2642926","url":null,"abstract":"This research work examined the effect of exchange rate on Agricultural export in Nigerian from 1986-2012. The study utilized a parametric research design. However, secondary data was used to collect information related to the subject. The data was gathered from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2013. More importantly, the study revealed that the impact of exchange rate on Agricultural export in Nigeria was examined using ordinary least square analysis. Preliminary analyses were performed to ensure no violation of the assumptions of normality, linearity and homoscedasticity. It was revealed that the FCALCULATED = 461.066, while the FTABULATED = 3.07. From the results obtained, FCALCULATED > FTABULATED, therefore, the null hypothesis which says that exchange rate has no significant effect on agricultural export in Nigeria should be rejected while failing to reject the alternate hypothesis.","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128891849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A major aim of the international community is to decarbonize the economy. With renewables, international trade in energy is likely to increase. In turn, the international trading system can be a major vehicle towards moving away from fossil fuels to renewable energy. To this end, it can provide fair competition, economies of scale and knowledge transfer. This article analyzes the impact of European Union (EU) preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in addressing climate change mitigation and energy security by promoting renewables. Currently, there is a proliferation of PTAs; this trend seems irreversible and is likely to persist, given the current crisis in the multilateral trading system. We argue that the EU can, through its network of PTAs, move towards greater energy independence as renewable energy becomes increasingly economically viable. This article provides a thorough review of the renewable energy-related provisions in the EU’s current PTAs and recommends three tangible ways through which the EU could capitalize its vast network of PTAs to boost the renewable energy market.
{"title":"Renewables, Preferential Trade Agreements and EU Energy Security","authors":"R. Leal-Arcas, V. Caruso, Raphaela Leupuscek","doi":"10.3390/LAWS4030472","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/LAWS4030472","url":null,"abstract":"A major aim of the international community is to decarbonize the economy. With renewables, international trade in energy is likely to increase. In turn, the international trading system can be a major vehicle towards moving away from fossil fuels to renewable energy. To this end, it can provide fair competition, economies of scale and knowledge transfer. This article analyzes the impact of European Union (EU) preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in addressing climate change mitigation and energy security by promoting renewables. Currently, there is a proliferation of PTAs; this trend seems irreversible and is likely to persist, given the current crisis in the multilateral trading system. We argue that the EU can, through its network of PTAs, move towards greater energy independence as renewable energy becomes increasingly economically viable. This article provides a thorough review of the renewable energy-related provisions in the EU’s current PTAs and recommends three tangible ways through which the EU could capitalize its vast network of PTAs to boost the renewable energy market.","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124503161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We seek to explain the emergence of spatial heterogeneity regarding development and pollution on the basis of interactions associated with the movement of capital and polluting activities from one economy to another. We use a simple dynamical model describing capital accumulation along the lines of a xed-savings-ratio Solow-type model capable of producing endogenous growth and convergence behavior, and pollution accumulation in each country with pollution diffusion between countries or regions. The basic mechanism underlying the movements of capital across space is the quest for locations where the marginal productivity of capital is relatively higher than the productivity at the location of origin. The notion that capital moves to locations of relatively higher productivity but not necessarily from locations of high concentration to locations of low concentration, does not face difficulties associated with the Lucas paradox. We show that, for a wide range of capital and pollution rates of flow, spatial heterogeneity emerges even between two economies with identical fundamental structures. These results can be interpreted as suggesting that the neoclassical convergence hypothesis might not hold under differential rates of flow of capital and polluting activities among countries of the same fundamental structure.
{"title":"Transboundary Capital and Pollution Flows and the Emergence of Regional Inequalities","authors":"S. Levin, A. Xepapadeas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2634398","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2634398","url":null,"abstract":"We seek to explain the emergence of spatial heterogeneity regarding development and pollution on the basis of interactions associated with the movement of capital and polluting activities from one economy to another. We use a simple dynamical model describing capital accumulation along the lines of a xed-savings-ratio Solow-type model capable of producing endogenous growth and convergence behavior, and pollution accumulation in each country with pollution diffusion between countries or regions. The basic mechanism underlying the movements of capital across space is the quest for locations where the marginal productivity of capital is relatively higher than the productivity at the location of origin. The notion that capital moves to locations of relatively higher productivity but not necessarily from locations of high concentration to locations of low concentration, does not face difficulties associated with the Lucas paradox. We show that, for a wide range of capital and pollution rates of flow, spatial heterogeneity emerges even between two economies with identical fundamental structures. These results can be interpreted as suggesting that the neoclassical convergence hypothesis might not hold under differential rates of flow of capital and polluting activities among countries of the same fundamental structure.","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130446211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate whether globalization influenced credit market deregulation over the period 1970-2010. Globalization is measured by the KOF indices of globalization. Credit market deregulation is measured by the credit market freedom indicators of the Fraser Institute. The results from both cross-sectional and panel regressions using ordinary least squares indicate a positive correlation between globalization and credit market deregulation. We account for reverse causality by using predicted trade openness as an instrumental variable and show that this approach gives rise to different conclusions. Two-stage least squares estimations do not show that globalization had a causal influence on credit market deregulation.
{"title":"Did Globalization Influence Credit Market Deregulation?","authors":"Peter S. Eppinger, N. Potrafke","doi":"10.1111/twec.12282","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12282","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate whether globalization influenced credit market deregulation over the period 1970-2010. Globalization is measured by the KOF indices of globalization. Credit market deregulation is measured by the credit market freedom indicators of the Fraser Institute. The results from both cross-sectional and panel regressions using ordinary least squares indicate a positive correlation between globalization and credit market deregulation. We account for reverse causality by using predicted trade openness as an instrumental variable and show that this approach gives rise to different conclusions. Two-stage least squares estimations do not show that globalization had a causal influence on credit market deregulation.","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"428 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115261966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In February 2015, Russian foreign trade continued posting the fall of main indices. Eurocommission considers that Russia remains among the leading countries which preserve diff erent barriers that to a considerable extent hamper global trade.
{"title":"Russian Foreign Trade in February 2015","authors":"N. Volovik","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2611228","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2611228","url":null,"abstract":"In February 2015, Russian foreign trade continued posting the fall of main indices. Eurocommission considers that Russia remains among the leading countries which preserve diff erent barriers that to a considerable extent hamper global trade.","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131627969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The pressures of globalization, rising ecological footprint and shrinking biocapacity and concomitant global value change will contribute towards an increase of the importance of environmental issues in the Arab world in the coming years. Without question, already the time series data from available indices – like the KOF-Index of Globalization (2015) and Ecological Footprint Network data on ecological footprint and biocapicity - all point in the direction that in objective terms the Arab World will be confronted by a synchronous increase of these phenomena in the coming years. In addition, the newly available opinion data from the recently released World Values Survey (6) for twelve members of the Arab League (Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestinian Territories, Qatar, Tunisia, and Yemen), containing almost 70% of the population of the countries of the Arab League show to us that membership rate environmental organizations, participation in environmental demonstrations and giving priority to protecting the environment over economic growth are already a factor in those countries. Their weight will increase in the years to come, given the general and very robust underlying tendencies. Our article analyzes the empirical relationship between rising globalization and ecological performance by establishing the global long-term, structural macro-quantitative determinants of environmental performance in the world system with cross-national data. In multiple standard OLS regression models, we test the effects of 26 standard predictor variables, including the ‘four freedoms’ of goods, capital, labor and services, whose weight will all increase in the Arab world in the coming years, on the following indicators of sustainable development - avoiding net trade of ecological footprint gha per person - Carbon emissions per million US dollars GDP - CO2 per capita - Yale/Columbia Environmental Performance Index (EPI) - Global footprint per capita - Happy Life Years - Happy Planet Index - ln (number of people per mill inhabitants 1980-2000 killed by natural disasters per year+1) Our research shows that the apprehensions of quantitative research, critical of neo-liberal globalization are fully vindicated by the significant negative environmental effects of the foreign savings rate. High foreign savings are indeed a driver of global footprint, and are a blockade against a satisfactory Happy Planet Index performance. The new international division of labor is one of the prime drivers of high CO2 per capita emissions. The penetration of economies by foreign direct investments by transnational corporations, which is the master variable of most quantitative dependency theories (MNC penetration), blocks environmental performance (EPI-Index) and several other socially important processes. Worker remittances have a significant positive effect on the Happy Planet Index, and Happy Life Years. In attempting to draw some cautious predictions
{"title":"Globalization, the Environment and the Future 'Greening' of Arab Politics","authors":"Arno Tausch","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2608958","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2608958","url":null,"abstract":"The pressures of globalization, rising ecological footprint and shrinking biocapacity and concomitant global value change will contribute towards an increase of the importance of environmental issues in the Arab world in the coming years. Without question, already the time series data from available indices – like the KOF-Index of Globalization (2015) and Ecological Footprint Network data on ecological footprint and biocapicity - all point in the direction that in objective terms the Arab World will be confronted by a synchronous increase of these phenomena in the coming years. In addition, the newly available opinion data from the recently released World Values Survey (6) for twelve members of the Arab League (Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestinian Territories, Qatar, Tunisia, and Yemen), containing almost 70% of the population of the countries of the Arab League show to us that membership rate environmental organizations, participation in environmental demonstrations and giving priority to protecting the environment over economic growth are already a factor in those countries. Their weight will increase in the years to come, given the general and very robust underlying tendencies. Our article analyzes the empirical relationship between rising globalization and ecological performance by establishing the global long-term, structural macro-quantitative determinants of environmental performance in the world system with cross-national data. In multiple standard OLS regression models, we test the effects of 26 standard predictor variables, including the ‘four freedoms’ of goods, capital, labor and services, whose weight will all increase in the Arab world in the coming years, on the following indicators of sustainable development - avoiding net trade of ecological footprint gha per person - Carbon emissions per million US dollars GDP - CO2 per capita - Yale/Columbia Environmental Performance Index (EPI) - Global footprint per capita - Happy Life Years - Happy Planet Index - ln (number of people per mill inhabitants 1980-2000 killed by natural disasters per year+1) Our research shows that the apprehensions of quantitative research, critical of neo-liberal globalization are fully vindicated by the significant negative environmental effects of the foreign savings rate. High foreign savings are indeed a driver of global footprint, and are a blockade against a satisfactory Happy Planet Index performance. The new international division of labor is one of the prime drivers of high CO2 per capita emissions. The penetration of economies by foreign direct investments by transnational corporations, which is the master variable of most quantitative dependency theories (MNC penetration), blocks environmental performance (EPI-Index) and several other socially important processes. Worker remittances have a significant positive effect on the Happy Planet Index, and Happy Life Years. In attempting to draw some cautious predictions ","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117055758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Experimental evidence on a range of interventions in developing countries is accumulating rapidly. Is it possible to extrapolate from an experimental evidence base to other locations of policy interest (from “reference” to “target” sites)? And which factors determine the accuracy of such an extrapolation? We investigate applying the Angrist and Evans (1998) natural experiment (the effect of boy-boy or girl-girl as the first two children on incremental fertility and mothers’ labor force participation) to data from International IPUMS on 166 country-year censuses. We define the external validity function with extrapolation error depending on covariate differences between reference and target locations, and find that smaller differences in geography, education, calendar year, and mothers’ labor force participation lead to lower extrapolation error. As experimental evidence accumulates, out-of-sample extrapolation error does not systematically approach zero if the available evidence base is naïvely extrapolated, but does if the external validity function is used to select the most appropriate reference context for a given target (although absolute error remains meaningful relative to the magnitude of the treatment effect). We also investigate where to locate experiments and the decision problem associated with extrapolating from existing evidence rather than running a new experiment at a target site.
{"title":"Local to Global: External Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment","authors":"Rajeev Dehejia, Cristian Pop-Eleches, Cyrus Samii","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2647649","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2647649","url":null,"abstract":"Experimental evidence on a range of interventions in developing countries is accumulating rapidly. Is it possible to extrapolate from an experimental evidence base to other locations of policy interest (from “reference” to “target” sites)? And which factors determine the accuracy of such an extrapolation? We investigate applying the Angrist and Evans (1998) natural experiment (the effect of boy-boy or girl-girl as the first two children on incremental fertility and mothers’ labor force participation) to data from International IPUMS on 166 country-year censuses. We define the external validity function with extrapolation error depending on covariate differences between reference and target locations, and find that smaller differences in geography, education, calendar year, and mothers’ labor force participation lead to lower extrapolation error. As experimental evidence accumulates, out-of-sample extrapolation error does not systematically approach zero if the available evidence base is naïvely extrapolated, but does if the external validity function is used to select the most appropriate reference context for a given target (although absolute error remains meaningful relative to the magnitude of the treatment effect). We also investigate where to locate experiments and the decision problem associated with extrapolating from existing evidence rather than running a new experiment at a target site.","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114381926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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