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Divergent EME Responses to Global and Domestic Monetary Policy Shocks EME对全球和国内货币政策冲击的不同反应
Pub Date : 2016-11-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2868864
W. Choi, Byongju Lee, T. Kang, Geun-young Kim
We assess the effect of tighter monetary policy in the U.S. and emerging market economies (EMEs) on EMEs using a panel factor-augmented VAR model. We find that a U.S. policy rate hike outstrips an equivalent domestic rate hike in its impacts on EMEs. In addition, EMEs show divergent policy responses and their macro-financial responses differ depending upon their economic fundamentals in the face of tighter U.S. policy. In particular, we find that high-inflation than low-inflation EMEs are more susceptible to the shock stemming from a U.S. federal funds rate hike.
我们使用面板因子增强VAR模型评估了美国和新兴市场经济体(EMEs)收紧货币政策对EMEs的影响。我们发现,在对新兴市场经济体的影响方面,美国政策加息超过了同等的国内加息。此外,新兴市场经济体表现出不同的政策反应,面对美国收紧的政策,它们的宏观金融反应因其经济基本面而异。特别是,我们发现高通胀的新兴市场国家比低通胀的新兴市场国家更容易受到美国联邦基金利率上调的冲击。
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引用次数: 2
Are Dragons and Tigers Catching Up? 龙和虎正在迎头赶上吗?
Pub Date : 2016-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2861285
O. Kozlova, J. Noguera
This paper studies the catching up process in per capita income of the so-called Asian Dragons and Tigers. It contributes to the literature in several ways. First, it tests the catching up hypothesis using the longest time span ever considered, from 1870 to 2014. Second, it documents the experiences of these two groups of countries and provides potential explanations for them. Third, by using the Kejriwal and Perron (2010) algorithm, we are able to endogenously estimate multiple structural breaks in the level and the trend of the series without prior knowledge of their integration level. This surpasses technical concerns of previous empirical studies. Fourth, it inquiries into how the Asian financial crisis affected the catching up process among the Dragons and Tigers economies.
本文研究了所谓“亚洲龙虎”的人均收入赶超过程。它在几个方面对文学有贡献。首先,它用有史以来最长的时间跨度(从1870年到2014年)来检验追赶假说。其次,它记录了这两组国家的经验,并为它们提供了可能的解释。第三,通过使用Kejriwal和Perron(2010)算法,我们能够在不事先知道其积分水平的情况下,内生地估计水平和序列趋势中的多个结构断裂。这超越了以往实证研究的技术问题。第四,探讨亚洲金融危机对“龙虎”经济体追赶进程的影响。
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引用次数: 2
Assessing United Nations Economic Sanctions: The Relationship between Sanctions and Imports in Eleven Targeted States from 1990 to 2014 评估联合国经济制裁:1990年至2014年11个制裁目标国家的制裁与进口的关系
Pub Date : 2016-08-23 DOI: 10.18003/AJPA.201605
G. Bagarella
While scholars have conducted ample studies of sanctions’ policy effectiveness, there has been a limited effort so far in determining their economic and trade costs to target countries. By focusing on sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council on 11 states between the end of the Cold War in 1990 and 2014, this analysis seeks to determine whether UN sanctions are associated with a decrease in target state goods imports and whether there are differential relationships for imports from advanced as opposed to emerging economies. Using a panel data regression methodology and controlling for socioeconomic, political, sanctions-related, financial, and governance factors, this study finds no link between UN sanctions and decreased imports by target states and contrasting evidence for different trade patterns with advanced and emerging economies for other sanction types. These findings, coupled with the costs and externalities sanctions have on both senders and targets, suggest that sanctions yield unclear results in target states and that policymakers should weigh these considerations seriously before using this tool.
虽然学者们对制裁的政策有效性进行了大量研究,但迄今为止,在确定制裁对目标国家的经济和贸易成本方面所做的努力有限。通过关注联合国安理会(United Nations Security Council)在1990年至2014年冷战结束期间对11个国家实施的制裁,本分析试图确定联合国制裁是否与目标国家商品进口减少有关,以及从发达经济体和新兴经济体进口是否存在差异关系。本研究采用面板数据回归方法,并控制了社会经济、政治、制裁相关、金融和治理因素,发现联合国制裁与目标国家进口减少之间没有联系,并对比了其他制裁类型与发达经济体和新兴经济体之间不同贸易模式的证据。这些发现,再加上制裁对输出国和目标国造成的成本和外部性,表明制裁在目标国产生的结果不明确,政策制定者在使用这一工具之前应认真权衡这些考虑因素。
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引用次数: 0
Brexit, Trump and the Nash Trap. A Loss of Trust. 英国脱欧、特朗普和纳什陷阱。失去信任。
Pub Date : 2016-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2948140
Greg Rooney
The U.K.’s decision to leave the EU and the voting in of the protectionist Donald Trump to the US presidency has drawn both the UK and the USA into the Nash Trap. U.S. mathematician John Nash (the movie ‘A Beautiful Mind’) postulated that Adam Smith’s declaration that ‘In competition, individual ambition serves the common good’ (the leave approach and Trump’s ‘America First’ proposition) was incomplete. Instead Nash postulated that the best result is for everyone in the group doing what’s best for himself AND the group (the remain in the EU and the international free trade approach). This variation of Adam Smith’s dictum has became known as the Nash Equilibrium and won Nash a share of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences. Nash postulated that this trap was lying in wait for every situation of competition and conflict in which parties are unwilling or unable to communicate and collaborate. Any action to escape the Nash trap must involve some consideration of the other party. The point of the Nash Equilibrium is that the choices you make should depend on what everyone else does. Thus, each strategy in a Nash Equilibrium is a best response to all other strategies in that equilibrium. Trust is at the heart of the Nash equilibrium. It underpins the incentive for all parties to be transparent in their strategies to the point that no party will want to change their strategy in response to what the others are doing. The Nash equilibrium could well be called the trust equilibrium. The Nash Equilibrium has helped economists and social scientists understand how decisions that are good for the individual can be terrible for the group. This is because the benefit that people gain in society depends on people cooperating and implicitly trusting one another to act in a manner corresponding with cooperation. The Nash Equilibrium is, in its essence, the general formulation of this assumption.
英国退出欧盟的决定,以及贸易保护主义者唐纳德·特朗普当选美国总统,把英国和美国都拉进了纳什陷阱。美国数学家约翰·纳什(电影《美丽心灵》)认为,亚当·斯密的“在竞争中,个人野心服务于共同利益”的主张(左派主义和特朗普的“美国优先主义”主张)是不完整的。相反,纳什假设,最好的结果是群体中的每个人都做对自己和群体最有利的事情(留在欧盟和国际自由贸易方法)。亚当•斯密名言的这一变体被称为纳什均衡,纳什也因此获得了诺贝尔经济学奖。纳什假设,这个陷阱是在等待每一个竞争和冲突的情况下,各方不愿或不能沟通和合作。任何摆脱纳什陷阱的行动都必须考虑到对方。纳什均衡的重点是你的选择应该取决于其他人的选择。因此,纳什均衡中的每个策略都是该均衡中所有其他策略的最佳对策。信任是纳什均衡的核心。它巩固了各方在战略上保持透明的动机,以至于没有一方愿意根据其他各方的行动而改变自己的战略。纳什均衡完全可以称为信任均衡。纳什均衡帮助经济学家和社会科学家理解了为什么对个人有利的决定可能对群体不利。这是因为人们在社会中获得的利益依赖于人们的合作和相互信任,以一种与合作相对应的方式行事。从本质上讲,纳什均衡就是这个假设的一般表述。
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引用次数: 0
Are Korean Industry-Sorted Portfolios Mean Reverting? 韩国行业分类投资组合是否回归均值?
Pub Date : 2016-06-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2804906
Seongman Moon
This paper tests the weak-form efficient market hypothesis for Korean industry-sorted portfolios. Based on a panel variance ratio approach, we find significant mean reversion of stock returns over long horizons in the pre Asian currency crisis period but little evidence in the post-crisis period. Our empirical findings are consistent with the fact that Korea accelerated its integration with international financial market by implementing extensive capital liberalization since the crisis.
本文对韩国行业分类投资组合的弱形式有效市场假说进行了检验。基于面板方差比方法,我们发现在亚洲货币危机前的长期视野中股票收益的均值回归显著,但在危机后的时期却没有证据。我们的实证研究结果与韩国自危机以来通过实施广泛的资本自由化加速与国际金融市场融合的事实一致。
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引用次数: 0
Trade Credit Provision and National Culture 贸易信贷提供与民族文化
Pub Date : 2016-06-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2792460
Sadok El Ghoul, Xiaolan Zheng
In this paper we investigate the relation between trade credit provision and national culture as captured by Hofstede's four cultural dimensions (collectivism/individualism, power distance, uncertainty avoidance, and masculinity/femininity). Consistent with our predictions based on several theories of trade credit, we find that after controlling for firm- and country-level factors as well as industry effects, trade credit provision is higher in countries with higher collectivism, power distance, uncertainty avoidance, and masculinity scores. These results are robust to using alternative measures of culture and trade credit, alternative sample compositions, and alternative estimation methods, as well as to addressing potential endogeneity concerns. International trade openness, however, mitigates the relation between trade credit provision and our proxies for national culture.
本文通过Hofstede的四个文化维度(集体主义/个人主义、权力距离、不确定性规避和男性气质/女性气质)来研究贸易信贷与民族文化之间的关系。与我们基于几个贸易信贷理论的预测一致,我们发现,在控制了企业和国家层面的因素以及行业效应之后,在集体主义、权力距离、不确定性规避和男子气概得分较高的国家,贸易信贷供应更高。这些结果对于使用文化和贸易信用的替代度量、替代样本组成和替代估计方法,以及解决潜在的内生性问题都是稳健的。然而,国际贸易开放缓和了贸易信贷提供与我们的代理国家文化之间的关系。
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引用次数: 154
Arctic: Realities and Challenges 北极:现实与挑战
Pub Date : 2016-03-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2740950
V. Bagdasaryan
During globalization scientists of the whole world more and more attention given to researches of the Arctic. It is caused by climatic changes, new technologies, and detection of considerable potential reserves of minerals. Such attention dictates need formation of an adequate state policy in the region on the basis of geopolitical and geo-economics factors. Thus, it is important to define, than the Arctic for Russia is, what approach is optimum for management of the Arctic zone of the country how it is necessary to build the relations with neighbors in the Arctic taking into account national economic and political interests.
在全球化进程中,世界各国科学家越来越重视北极的研究。它是由气候变化、新技术和发现大量潜在矿藏引起的。这种关注要求在地缘政治和地缘经济因素的基础上在该地区形成适当的国家政策。因此,重要的是要定义,而不是北极对俄罗斯来说,什么方法是管理国家北极地区的最佳方式,如何在考虑国家经济和政治利益的情况下建立与北极邻国的关系。
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引用次数: 0
Globalization, Legal Culture and the Handling of Sino-Australian Commercial Disputes 全球化、法律文化与中澳商事纠纷的处理
Pub Date : 2016-01-04 DOI: 10.1093/CJCL/CXW002
R. Tomasic, Ping Xiong
China’s ‘Go Global’ strategy has encouraged Chinese companies to seek to enhance China’s resource security through acquisitions in foreign markets. Under the influence of this policy, Chinese companies have greatly increased outbound investment in recent years, and one consequence of this increased activity has been the generation of a range of commercial disputes. The choice of different methods of dispute settlement is in part influenced by the national legal cultures that have shaped the mind-sets of parties to these commercial disputes. Recent Chinese investment abroad has grown significantly and increasing economic engagement between China and other countries will inevitably involve some degree of conflict as different legal cultures interact. In understanding points of tension in the Sino-Australian investment relationship questions are raised concerning legal pluralism and the impact of legal culture on Chinese controlled companies operating in Australia. This paper discusses approaches taken in a number of recent commercial disputes involving Chinese companies in Australia and the slow movement that these cases reveal towards a more globalized commercial law.
中国的“走出去”战略鼓励中国企业寻求通过在国外市场的收购来加强中国的资源安全。在这一政策的影响下,中国企业近年来大幅增加了对外投资,而这种活动增加的一个后果是产生了一系列商业纠纷。不同争端解决方法的选择在一定程度上受到国家法律文化的影响,这些法律文化塑造了这些商事争端各方的思维方式。近年来,中国在海外的投资显著增长,随着不同法律文化的互动,中国与其他国家之间日益增加的经济往来将不可避免地涉及某种程度的冲突。在理解中澳投资关系中的紧张点时,提出了有关法律多元化和法律文化对在澳经营的中国控股公司的影响的问题。本文讨论了最近在澳大利亚涉及中国公司的一些商业纠纷所采取的方法,以及这些案件揭示的走向更加全球化的商业法的缓慢运动。
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引用次数: 1
How to Avert the Risk of Deflation in Europe: Rethinking the Policy Mix and European Economic Governance 如何避免欧洲通缩风险:对政策组合与欧洲经济治理的再思考
Pub Date : 2015-12-04 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2701835
S. Theodoropoulou
This policy brief discusses the risks of deflation for the European economy. It critically evaluates the European economic governance for not having averted this risk and discusses how a more coordinated approach to both fiscal policy and collective wage bargaining, both aiming at national inflation targets in the context of macroeconomic dialogue, could help stimulate aggregate demand and move the European economy away from the brink of deflation.
本政策简报讨论了欧洲经济面临的通货紧缩风险。它批判性地评估了欧洲未能避免这种风险的经济治理,并讨论了在宏观经济对话的背景下,如何在财政政策和集体工资谈判方面采取更加协调的方法,以实现各国的通胀目标,从而有助于刺激总需求,使欧洲经济远离通缩的边缘。
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引用次数: 1
From the Myth of Level Playing Fields to the Reality of a Finite Planet; Comment on 'A Global Social Support System: What the International Community Could Learn from the United States' National Basketball Association's Scheme for Redistribution of New Talent' 从公平竞争的神话到地球有限的现实评《全球社会支持体系:国际社会对美国国家篮球协会新人才再分配计划的借鉴》
Pub Date : 2015-11-19 DOI: 10.15171/ijhpm.2015.202
R. Labonté
Despite the mythology that the global economy with its trade rules creates a 'level playing field,' international trade has never involved 'level players.' The inequalities in outcomes generated by the more powerful winning more frequently has led to innovative ideas for ex post redistribution to make the matches between the players both fairer, and in the analogy to basketball used by the authors, more interesting and even more competitive. The proposal for a Global Social Protection Fund, financed by a small tax on the winners to enhance social protection spending for the losers, presumably increasing the latter's capabilities to compete more effectively in the global market game, is one such idea. It has much to commend it. Several problems, however, stand in its way, apart from those inherent within nations themselves and to which the authors give some attention. First, much global trade is now intra-firm rather than international, making calculations of which nations win or lose exceedingly difficult. Second, tax havens persist without the transparency and global regulatory oversights that would allow a better rendering of where winnings are stashed. Third, pre-distribution inequalities (those arising from market activities before government tax and transfer measures apply) are still increasing as labour's power to wrestle global capital into some ameliorative social contract diminishes. Fourth, there are finite limits to a planet on the cusp of multiple environmental crises. These problems do not diminish the necessity of alternative policy playbooks such as the proposed Fund, but point to the need to embrace the new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a single set, such that economic growth for the bottom half of humanity includes deep structural reforms to both pre-distribution and redistribution, if the targets for environmental survival are to be met.
尽管全球经济及其贸易规则创造了一个“公平竞争的环境”,但国际贸易从未涉及“公平的参与者”。更强大的胜利更频繁地产生结果的不平等,导致了事后再分配的创新想法,使球员之间的比赛更公平,并且在作者使用的篮球类比中,更有趣,甚至更具竞争性。建立全球社会保护基金(Global Social Protection Fund)的提议就是这样一个想法。该基金的资金来源是向赢家征收少量税收,以增加对输家的社会保护支出,这可能会提高后者在全球市场游戏中更有效竞争的能力。它有许多值得赞扬的地方。然而,除了这些国家本身固有的问题之外,还有几个问题阻碍了它的发展,作者对此给予了一些关注。首先,现在很多全球贸易都是在公司内部进行的,而不是在国际间进行的,这使得计算哪个国家赢哪个国家输变得极其困难。其次,在缺乏透明度和全球监管监督的情况下,避税天堂依然存在,这将使人们更好地了解奖金的藏匿地点。第三,分配前不平等(在政府税收和转移措施生效之前由市场活动产生的不平等)仍在加剧,因为劳动力将全球资本纳入某种改良社会契约的能力正在减弱。第四,对一个处于多重环境危机边缘的星球来说,限制是有限的。这些问题并没有减少其他政策手册的必要性,比如拟议中的基金,而是指出有必要将新的可持续发展目标(sdg)作为一套单一的目标来接受,这样,如果要实现环境生存的目标,人类底层一半的经济增长就包括对预分配和再分配进行深层次的结构性改革。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)
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