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Do the Drivers of Loan Dollarisation Differ between CESEE and Latin America? A Meta-Analysis 拉美和拉美的贷款美元化驱动因素不同吗?一个荟萃分析
Pub Date : 2014-04-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2419385
Mariya Stankeva Hake, Fernando López Vicente, Luis Molina
In this paper we compare the determinants of loan dollarisation in two emerging market regions, namely Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) and Latin America, by means of a meta-analysis of 32 studies that provide around 1,200 estimated coefficients for six drivers of foreign currency lending. One common pattern we identify is that macroeconomic instability (as expressed by inflation volatility) and banks’ funding in foreign currency play a significant role in explaining loan dollarisation in both regions. By contrast, the interest rate differential appears to be a key determinant only in Latin America, while the positive impact of exchange rate volatility on dollarisation implies a more prominent role for supply factors in the CESEE region. While the robustness of the results has been verified, our meta-analysis shows that estimates reported in the literature tend to be influenced by study characteristics such as the methodology applied and the data used.
在本文中,我们通过对32项研究的元分析,比较了两个新兴市场地区(即中欧、东欧和东南欧(CESEE)和拉丁美洲)贷款美元化的决定因素,这些研究为外币贷款的六个驱动因素提供了大约1200个估计系数。我们发现的一个共同模式是,宏观经济不稳定(以通胀波动率表示)和银行的外币融资在解释这两个地区的贷款美元化方面发挥了重要作用。相比之下,利率差异似乎仅在拉丁美洲是一个关键的决定因素,而汇率波动对美元化的积极影响意味着供应因素在CESEE地区的作用更为突出。虽然结果的稳健性已得到验证,但我们的荟萃分析显示,文献中报告的估计往往会受到研究特征(如应用的方法和使用的数据)的影响。
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引用次数: 59
Investing in Sustainability: Reform Proposals for the Ethics Guidelines of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund 投资于可持续性:挪威主权财富基金道德准则的改革建议
Pub Date : 2014-04-01 DOI: 10.54648/eucl2014021
A. Halvorssen, Cody D. Eldredge
The Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world and thus arguably one of the most influential investors in the marketplace, is at the forefront of responsible investing. This article examines reform proposals that have been suggested by a government appointed body mandated to assess the GPFG's work on responsible investment and suggests additional reforms to enhance its effectiveness as a responsible investor.
挪威政府全球养老基金(GPFG)是世界上最大的主权财富基金,因此可以说是市场上最有影响力的投资者之一,处于负责任投资的最前沿。本文审查了由政府任命的负责评估GPFG在负责任投资方面工作的机构提出的改革建议,并提出了进一步的改革建议,以提高其作为负责任投资者的有效性。
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引用次数: 3
Review of Greta Krippner, Capitalizing on Crisis: The Political Origins of the Rise of Finance 格里塔·克里普纳:《危机资本化:金融崛起的政治根源》
Pub Date : 2014-03-17 DOI: 10.1163/2468-1733_shafr_sim280020435
F. Dobbin
Greta Krippner submitted Capitalizing on Crisis to Harvard University Press at the end of the summer of 2008, before the Great Recession began. I read it as a member of the press board, and we all thought Krippner had a career ahead as a psychic.
2008年夏末,大衰退开始之前,格里塔·克里普纳向哈佛大学出版社提交了《危机资本化》一书。作为新闻委员会的一员,我读了这本书,我们都认为克里普纳会成为一名灵媒。
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引用次数: 0
Unconventional Oil: Will It Satisfy Future Global Oil Demand? 非常规石油:能否满足未来全球石油需求?
Pub Date : 2014-03-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2405666
Ken’ichi Matsumoto, V. Voudouris, K. Andriosopoulos
The role of unconventional resources (e.g., oil sands and extra-heavy oil) is anticipated to increase in the global oil market. Although we are facing a scarcity of conventional (low cost) oil resources, unconventional oil resources might manage (for a period of time) to supply constraints in terms of meeting expected increases in oil demand. Here, we use the ACEGES (Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System) model to investigate the potential impact of unconventional oil resources on the future evolution of the oil market on a global scale. The key assumption of the model is that technological improvements will allow unconventional oil production to increase at a rate similar to the rate of production of the conventional oil resources. An important observation from the ACEGES-based simulations is the significant shift of the peak production of oil (both conventional and unconventional) if and only if technological progress will allow upstream extraction rates for unconventional resources, similar to the historic extraction rates of conventional oil. Given the estimated potential of total oil resources, the ACEGES-based scenario suggests that the unconventional oil production may shift the peak year of total oil by 60 years or more, assuming favourable upstream investment plans and a continuous increase in the demand for crude oil products at a reasonable price. However, increased total oil production might not meet the unconstrained (high) growth rates of oil demand.
预计非常规资源(如油砂和超稠油)在全球石油市场中的作用将会增加。尽管我们正面临着传统(低成本)石油资源的短缺,但在一段时间内,非常规石油资源可能会满足石油需求预期增长的供应限制。本文采用ACEGES(基于agent的全球能源系统计算经济学)模型,在全球范围内研究非常规石油资源对石油市场未来演变的潜在影响。该模型的关键假设是,技术进步将使非常规石油产量以与常规石油资源相似的速度增长。基于aceges的模拟得出的一个重要结论是,当且仅当技术进步允许非常规资源的上游采收率与传统石油的历史采收率相似时,石油(包括常规和非常规)的峰值产量将发生重大变化。考虑到总石油资源的估计潜力,基于aceges的情景表明,假设有利的上游投资计划和对原油产品的需求以合理的价格持续增长,非常规石油生产可能会将总石油产量的峰值年份推迟60年或更长时间。然而,增加的石油总产量可能无法满足石油需求的无限制(高)增长率。
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引用次数: 2
The Impact of Investment Treaties on Governance of Private Investment in Infrastructure 投资条约对基础设施私人投资治理的影响
Pub Date : 2014-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2411575
Lise Johnson
Governments are increasingly turning to the private sector to provide the capital, resources and/or know-how necessary for development and operation of infrastructure. In some cases, the involvement by the private sector will trigger coverage by an international investment treaty that overlies, and can override, the domestic law and contract that would otherwise be applicable to the project. This paper discusses the circumstances affecting when an investment treaty will apply and also highlights some of the ways that investment treaties can impact governance of infrastructure development and operation. While focusing on the relationship between investment treaties and investments in infrastructure, this paper is also relevant for the connections between investment treaties and other activities involving investor-state contracts (or quasi-contractual relationships) such as investments in the extractive industries.
各国政府越来越多地求助于私营部门提供基础设施发展和运作所需的资本、资源和/或专门知识。在某些情况下,私营部门的参与将触发一项国际投资条约的覆盖,该条约将凌驾于(并可能凌驾于)原本适用于该项目的国内法律和合同。本文讨论了影响投资条约何时适用的情况,并强调了投资条约可能影响基础设施开发和运营治理的一些方式。在关注投资条约与基础设施投资之间关系的同时,本文也涉及投资条约与涉及投资者-国家合同(或准合同关系)的其他活动(如采掘业投资)之间的联系。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries 评估世界银行-国际货币基金组织低收入国家债务可持续性框架的偏差和准确性
Pub Date : 2014-03-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781475579772.001
A. Berg, Enrico G. Berkes, Catherine A. Pattillo, A. Presbitero, Y. Yakhshilikov
The World Bank and the IMF have adopted a debt sustainability framework (DSF) to evaluate the risk of debt distress in Low Income Countries (LICs). At the core of the DSF are empirically-based thresholds for each of five different measures of the debt burden (the “debt threshold approach” DTA). The DSF contains a rule for aggregating the information contained in these five different variables which we label the “worst-case aggregator” (WCA) in view of the fact that the DSF considers a breach of any one of the thresholds sufficient to indicate a high risk of debt distress. However, neither the DTA nor the WCA has heretofore been subject to empirical testing. We find that: (1) the DTA loses information relative to a simple proposed alternative; (2) the WCA is too conservative (predicting crises too often) in terms of the loss function used in the DSF; and (3) the WCA is less accurate than some simple proposed alternative aggregators as a predictor of debt distress.
世界银行和国际货币基金组织采用了一个债务可持续性框架来评估低收入国家的债务危机风险。DSF的核心是基于经验的五种不同债务负担衡量标准(“债务门槛法”DTA)的阈值。DSF包含一个规则,用于汇总包含在这五个不同变量中的信息,我们将其标记为“最坏情况聚合器”(WCA),因为DSF认为违反任何一个阈值足以表明债务危机的高风险。然而,到目前为止,DTA和WCA都没有经过实证检验。我们发现:(1)相对于一个简单的备选方案,DTA丢失了信息;(2)就DSF中使用的损失函数而言,WCA过于保守(预测危机过于频繁);(3) WCA在预测债务危机方面不如一些简单的替代聚合器准确。
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引用次数: 6
When Will the Global Economy Return to Rapid Growth? 全球经济何时能恢复快速增长?
Pub Date : 2014-01-31 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2388718
Marek A. Dąbrowski
More than six years have passed since the subprime mortgage crisis began in the US in the summer of 2007. In the following year, it spread to the entire world economy. Its consequences have not been fully overcome yet. Thus it’s not surprising that economists’ attention has been largely devoted to short-term, crisis-related issues like financial deleveraging and repairing the balance sheets of governments, corporations and households. For the macroeconomic policy debate, this means concentrating on demand management by using monetary and fiscal policy tools in order to return to a pre-crisis growth path. Rarely has the question been asked of whether or not this is a realistic goal, i.e., whether post-crisis growth can return to pre-crisis levels. An analysis of growth perspectives in the medium-to-long-term calls for using the neo-classical growth theory, according to which there are three factors at play: labor, capital and total factor productivity (TFP). In this brief we will try to figure out what their expected dynamics are and how much each of them can contribute to economic growth in the foreseeable future.
自2007年夏季美国次贷危机爆发以来,已经过去了6年多。在接下来的一年里,它蔓延到了整个世界经济。其后果尚未完全克服。因此,毫不奇怪,经济学家的注意力主要集中在短期的、与危机相关的问题上,比如金融去杠杆化和修复政府、企业和家庭的资产负债表。就宏观经济政策辩论而言,这意味着通过使用货币和财政政策工具,将重点放在需求管理上,以便回到危机前的增长道路。很少有人问,这是否是一个现实的目标,也就是说,危机后的增长能否恢复到危机前的水平。对中长期增长前景的分析需要使用新古典增长理论,根据该理论,有三个因素在起作用:劳动、资本和全要素生产率(TFP)。在本文中,我们将试图弄清楚它们的预期动态是什么,以及它们在可预见的未来对经济增长的贡献有多大。
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引用次数: 2
India and Japan: Entering a New Era of Economic Relationship 印度和日本:进入经济关系的新时代
Pub Date : 2014-01-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2383159
A. Singh
In recent years, India’s image at the popular level in Japan has changed considerably — from that of a poverty-stricken third world country to a modernizing nation with world class IT-enabled services and strength in many other commercial areas from biotechnology and medical science to financial services and pharmaceuticals. Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori’s visit to India in August 2000 was the beginning of a new era of India-Japan relations, which set the precedent for visits to India by his successors Mr. Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe. Since then, the two countries sought to strengthen bilateral ties through new initiatives and programmes ranging from economic and cultural linkages to defence and security. The year 2007 was celebrated as the Year of Friendship between India and Japan, which marked the 50th anniversary of the Cultural Agreement, concluded between them in 1957.
近年来,印度在日本民众中的形象发生了很大的变化——从一个贫困的第三世界国家变成了一个现代化的国家,拥有世界一流的信息技术服务,在生物技术、医学、金融服务和制药等许多其他商业领域都有实力。日本首相森喜朗(Yoshiro Mori) 2000年8月对印度的访问开启了印日关系的新时代,为他的继任者小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)和安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)访问印度开创了先例。从那时起,两国寻求通过从经济和文化联系到国防和安全的新倡议和方案加强双边关系。2007年是印日友好年,纪念两国于1957年签订的《文化协定》50周年。
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引用次数: 0
Why Has U.S. Policy Uncertainty Risen Since 1960? 为什么美国的政策不确定性自1960年以来上升?
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.1257/AER.104.5.56
S. Baker, N. Bloom, Brandice Canes-Wrone, S. Davis, Jonathan Rodden
There appears to be a strong upward drift in policy-related economic uncertainty after 1960. We consider two classes of explanations for this rise. The first stresses growth in government spending, taxes, and regulation. A second stresses increased political polarization and its implications for the policy-making process and policy choices. While the evidence is inconclusive, it suggests that both factors play a role in driving the secular increase in policy uncertainty over the last half century.
1960年后,与政策相关的经济不确定性似乎出现了强劲的上升趋势。对于这种增长,我们考虑了两类解释。第一种观点强调政府支出、税收和监管的增长。第二点强调政治两极分化加剧及其对决策过程和政策选择的影响。虽然证据不确定,但它表明,这两个因素在推动过去半个世纪政策不确定性的长期增加方面发挥了作用。
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引用次数: 163
Governance Polycentrism -- Hierarchy and Order Without Government in Business and Human Rights Regulation 治理多中心主义——企业与人权规制中没有政府的等级与秩序
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2373734
L. Backer
Globalization has produced a growing number of governance regimes beyond the reach of the domestic legal orders of states. These systems sometimes collide when their overlapping areas of competence lead to contradictory decisions or mutual obstruction. Is it possible to manage these collisions to produce order among colliding systems with no normative center, and if so, what may be the role of law for the solution of collision problems, and how does that role relate to non-legal regimes, what may be the role of non-legal approaches to a solution, and how do they relate to law, and what might concrete solutions look like? The purpose of this essay is to consider the issue of collision within one of its most interesting nexus points — in the elaboration of governance frameworks touching on the human rights impacts of economic activity by states, enterprises and individuals. That elaboration produces collisions between the state, international public and private organizations (enterprises and civil society actors), each with their distinct governance regimes. The thesis is that the development of governance regimes for the human rights impacts of economic activity suggests the way in which non-legal approaches play a crucial role in the creation of structures within which the collisions of polycentric governance, its necessary anarchic character, can be managed (but not ordered), and consequently the way in which law (and its principles of hierarchy and unitary systemicity) plays a less hegemonic role, that is, the way in which law has less to contribute toward the governance problem thus posed. The thesis is explored by considering the way in which the management of anarchy and the collision of governance regimes are being attempted through the operationalization of the United Nations Guiding Principles for Business and Human Rights, and the three pillar framework from which it arose (state duty to protect, corporate responsibility to respect, and effective remedies for adverse effects of human rights), and its incorporation into the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises. Part I considers the structures and premises of the emerging governance framework built into the Guiding Principles, and its points of collision with law based systems. Part II then considers the ramifications of collision, and the possibilities for systemic equilibrium. The emerging framework suggests a constitutional framework within which fracture and polycentric co-existence, of short duration, appear to be emerging as the stable state.
全球化产生了越来越多的治理制度,超出了各国国内法律秩序的范围。当这些系统重叠的权限领域导致相互矛盾的决策或相互阻碍时,这些系统有时会发生冲突。是否有可能管理这些冲突,在没有规范中心的冲突系统之间产生秩序?如果有可能,法律在解决冲突问题方面可能扮演什么角色?这个角色与非法律制度有什么关系?解决问题的非法律途径可能扮演什么角色?它们与法律有什么关系?具体的解决方案可能是什么样子?本文的目的是在其最有趣的连接点之一考虑冲突问题——在阐述涉及国家、企业和个人经济活动对人权影响的治理框架时。这种阐述导致了国家、国际公共和私人组织(企业和民间社会行动者)之间的冲突,每个组织都有自己独特的治理机制。本文的论点是,经济活动对人权影响的治理制度的发展表明,非法律途径在创建结构中发挥关键作用的方式,在这种结构中,多中心治理的冲突,其必要的无政府性质,可以被管理(但不是有序的),因此,法律(及其等级和统一系统的原则)发挥较少霸权作用的方式,即:法律对由此提出的治理问题贡献不大的方式。本文通过考虑通过实施《联合国工商业与人权指导原则》来尝试管理无政府状态和治理制度冲突的方式,以及由此产生的三大支柱框架(国家保护的义务、企业尊重的责任和对人权不利影响的有效补救)来探讨这一问题。并将其纳入经济合作与发展组织的《跨国企业准则》。第一部分考虑了构建在指导原则中的新兴治理框架的结构和前提,以及它与基于法律的制度的冲突点。第二部分则考虑碰撞的后果,以及系统平衡的可能性。正在形成的框架暗示了一个宪政框架,在这个框架中,分裂和多中心共存的短期状态似乎正在成为稳定状态。
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引用次数: 0
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SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)
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