Global financial regulators are currently reflecting on the nature of the insurance business. Specifically, they are trying to classify insurance into ‘traditional’ and ‘non-traditional’ activities, and to distinguish them from ‘non-insurance’ activities. Subsequently, they will seek to apply different regulatory treatments to these categories to achieve better control of systemic risk in the global financial system. This means that one of the most important current questions in international finance is ‘what is insurance and where does insurance end?’ This paper aims to elaborate on the economics of insurance and its borders with general finance. It argues that the classification challenge by regulators partly stems from terminological confusion between insurance activities and more general financial activities. Insurance and finance both use the same terms – in particular the ubiquitous notion of risk – but attach fundamentally different meanings to them. With the proper terminology at hand and a clear distinction between insurance products, product management activities and balance sheet management activities, the limits of insurance can be re-established. Such delineation is essential to determine appropriate systemic risk regulation.
{"title":"The Economics of Insurance, its Borders with Finance and Implications for Systemic Regulation","authors":"Christian Thimann","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2573633","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2573633","url":null,"abstract":"Global financial regulators are currently reflecting on the nature of the insurance business. Specifically, they are trying to classify insurance into ‘traditional’ and ‘non-traditional’ activities, and to distinguish them from ‘non-insurance’ activities. Subsequently, they will seek to apply different regulatory treatments to these categories to achieve better control of systemic risk in the global financial system. This means that one of the most important current questions in international finance is ‘what is insurance and where does insurance end?’ This paper aims to elaborate on the economics of insurance and its borders with general finance. It argues that the classification challenge by regulators partly stems from terminological confusion between insurance activities and more general financial activities. Insurance and finance both use the same terms – in particular the ubiquitous notion of risk – but attach fundamentally different meanings to them. With the proper terminology at hand and a clear distinction between insurance products, product management activities and balance sheet management activities, the limits of insurance can be re-established. Such delineation is essential to determine appropriate systemic risk regulation.","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"103 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133268465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Analyses in international political economy (IPE) identify interest rate convergence, magnified in the process of European monetary integration, and financial market liberalization as causal factors behind the rise of house prices. Despite these common credit supply shocks, developed economies experienced heterogeneous trends in housing inflation throughout the 1990s and 2000s. Turning towards demand determinants of housing prices, we focus on whether wage-setting institutions blunt financial liberalization’s impact on housing inflation via their restraining effect on incomes. Employing both a panel regression analysis and a structured comparison of housing developments in Ireland and the Netherlands, we uncover two findings. First, income growth is a more important predictor of housing bubbles across OECD economies than financial variables (although income’s impact on house prices is severely mitigated for the United States). Second, countries with coordinated labor market institutions that grant political coalitions in the export sector veto powers over non-tradable sector interests, realize more restrained income growth and, in turn, are less prone to housing bubbles.
{"title":"Taming Global Finance in an Age of Capital? Wage-Setting Institutions' Mitigating Effects on Housing Bubbles","authors":"Alison Johnston, Aidan Regan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2568578","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2568578","url":null,"abstract":"Analyses in international political economy (IPE) identify interest rate convergence, magnified in the process of European monetary integration, and financial market liberalization as causal factors behind the rise of house prices. Despite these common credit supply shocks, developed economies experienced heterogeneous trends in housing inflation throughout the 1990s and 2000s. Turning towards demand determinants of housing prices, we focus on whether wage-setting institutions blunt financial liberalization’s impact on housing inflation via their restraining effect on incomes. Employing both a panel regression analysis and a structured comparison of housing developments in Ireland and the Netherlands, we uncover two findings. First, income growth is a more important predictor of housing bubbles across OECD economies than financial variables (although income’s impact on house prices is severely mitigated for the United States). Second, countries with coordinated labor market institutions that grant political coalitions in the export sector veto powers over non-tradable sector interests, realize more restrained income growth and, in turn, are less prone to housing bubbles.","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"15 6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131807934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
South & East Asia has become a critical and important part of the world trading system since last couple of decades. It has also emerged as the world’s fastest-growing economy. As a geographically connected region, the BCIM Economic Corridor (EC) is expected to ease the flow of goods between two of the largest and oldest economies of the globe namely India and China. It will also provide greater economic resources to the burgeoning markets of Bangladesh and Myanmar.The primary objectives of the study are to identify major tradable products of the energy sector of India and cluster them as per their trade potential. In this study, the scope of energy sector has been kept confined to products and equipment directly associated with energy access. Energy security has been kept outside the purview of this present study. Using 6-digit Harmonized System (HS-codes) of classification for both renewable and non-renewable energy, a list of 270 products and major equipment, associated with renewable and non-renewable energy sector, have been identified for preliminary analysis of India’s trade potential of energy sector products in the BCIM region.Various clusters of products and equipment associated with energy sector have been formed. The clusters have been made on the basis of seven different parameters which are commonly used for analyzing trade date. For each product, values for these seven parameters have been estimated using past trade data (2009-13). Primarily, WITS data has been used. And to understand intra-industry trade (IIT), the Grubel-Lloyd index has been used. FK index has been used to understand the trade creation and trade diversion potential of the trading partners. SMART package has been used to estimate welfare gains for BCIM member countries
{"title":"Economic Cooperation between India and BCM Region: A Study of the Trade Potential of India's Energy Sector Products","authors":"Kallal Banerjee, D. Dey","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2545195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2545195","url":null,"abstract":"South & East Asia has become a critical and important part of the world trading system since last couple of decades. It has also emerged as the world’s fastest-growing economy. As a geographically connected region, the BCIM Economic Corridor (EC) is expected to ease the flow of goods between two of the largest and oldest economies of the globe namely India and China. It will also provide greater economic resources to the burgeoning markets of Bangladesh and Myanmar.The primary objectives of the study are to identify major tradable products of the energy sector of India and cluster them as per their trade potential. In this study, the scope of energy sector has been kept confined to products and equipment directly associated with energy access. Energy security has been kept outside the purview of this present study. Using 6-digit Harmonized System (HS-codes) of classification for both renewable and non-renewable energy, a list of 270 products and major equipment, associated with renewable and non-renewable energy sector, have been identified for preliminary analysis of India’s trade potential of energy sector products in the BCIM region.Various clusters of products and equipment associated with energy sector have been formed. The clusters have been made on the basis of seven different parameters which are commonly used for analyzing trade date. For each product, values for these seven parameters have been estimated using past trade data (2009-13). Primarily, WITS data has been used. And to understand intra-industry trade (IIT), the Grubel-Lloyd index has been used. FK index has been used to understand the trade creation and trade diversion potential of the trading partners. SMART package has been used to estimate welfare gains for BCIM member countries","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127262986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Member States retain the right to decide who can receive renewable energy subsidies, and can exclude green electricity produced abroad from subsidy programmes. With its decision in the Alands Vindkraft case, the European Court of Justice assured the continued existence of renewable energy subsidy programmes in various European Union Member States. While the judgment was welcomed by many political stakeholders, it highlights a number of unresolved legal questions. To date, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) has failed to clarify if and when discrimination against foreign goods is permitted for reasons of environmental protection. The problems that remain in the wake of the Alands Vindkraft decision argue in favour of abandoning the existing distinction between discriminatory and non-discriminatory subsidy measures. With its decision, the CJEU has granted Member States broad leeway to conduct their own assessment of the proportionality of a measure. All in all, renewable energy providers have reason to celebrate; however, the goal of creating a single European market for electricity has fallen by the wayside.
{"title":"Renewable Energy and the Free Movement of Goods","authors":"Armin Steinbach, R. Bruckmann","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2562392","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2562392","url":null,"abstract":"Member States retain the right to decide who can receive renewable energy subsidies, and can exclude green electricity produced abroad from subsidy programmes. With its decision in the Alands Vindkraft case, the European Court of Justice assured the continued existence of renewable energy subsidy programmes in various European Union Member States. While the judgment was welcomed by many political stakeholders, it highlights a number of unresolved legal questions. To date, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) has failed to clarify if and when discrimination against foreign goods is permitted for reasons of environmental protection. The problems that remain in the wake of the Alands Vindkraft decision argue in favour of abandoning the existing distinction between discriminatory and non-discriminatory subsidy measures. With its decision, the CJEU has granted Member States broad leeway to conduct their own assessment of the proportionality of a measure. All in all, renewable energy providers have reason to celebrate; however, the goal of creating a single European market for electricity has fallen by the wayside.","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132793631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Since July 2013, the EU and the US have been negotiating a preferential trade agreement (PTA), the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). We use a multi-country, multi-industry Ricardian trade model with national and international input-output linkages to quantify its potential economic consequences. We structurally estimate the sectoral trade flow elasticities of trade costs and of existing PTAs. We simulate the trade, value added, and welfare effects of the TTIP, assuming that the agreement would eliminate all transatlantic tariffs and reduce non-tariff barriers as other deep PTAs have. The long-run level of real per capita income would change by 2.12% in the EU, by 2.68% in the US, and by -0.03% in the rest of the world relative to the status quo. However, there is substantial heterogeneity across the 134 geographical entities that we investigate. Gross value of EU-US trade could triple, but its value added would grow by substantially less. Moreover, trade diversion effects are more pronounced in value added trade than in gross trade. This signals a deepening of the transatlantic value chain.
{"title":"Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP","authors":"Rahel Aichele, Gabriel Felbermayr, Inga Heiland","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2550180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2550180","url":null,"abstract":"Since July 2013, the EU and the US have been negotiating a preferential trade agreement (PTA), the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). We use a multi-country, multi-industry Ricardian trade model with national and international input-output linkages to quantify its potential economic consequences. We structurally estimate the sectoral trade flow elasticities of trade costs and of existing PTAs. We simulate the trade, value added, and welfare effects of the TTIP, assuming that the agreement would eliminate all transatlantic tariffs and reduce non-tariff barriers as other deep PTAs have. The long-run level of real per capita income would change by 2.12% in the EU, by 2.68% in the US, and by -0.03% in the rest of the world relative to the status quo. However, there is substantial heterogeneity across the 134 geographical entities that we investigate. Gross value of EU-US trade could triple, but its value added would grow by substantially less. Moreover, trade diversion effects are more pronounced in value added trade than in gross trade. This signals a deepening of the transatlantic value chain.","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114176022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Land, labor, capital and entrepreneurship- these are the four major factors of production in an economy. While labor is provided by the working class and capital and entrepreneurship by the capitalist class; there is a major role of government in providing the first one which is land. The government has been carrying out land acquisition for various developmental projects in India at different times. They acquire land either for projects that are set up by the government itself (for example, land being acquired at Ranchi in Jharkhand for setting up the Jharkhand Central University) or for projects being set up by multinational corporations in our country such as the land acquisitions being carried out in Jagatsinghpur district of Odisha for the Korean steel company POSCO. These two are only a few of the recent examples. There have been innumerable cases of such nature in the past too like Singur and Nandigram.It is vouched that these acquisitions are vital for the development of the country. But what about the development of those people who are displaced due to these land acquisitions? Certain communities and the environment are grossly affected by these projects for which land is being acquired. These communities lose their land, houses, source of livelihood and sustenance and come up in a conflict with the state. Their economic activities are disrupted due to relocation to different places which usually lack infrastructural facilities. The owners of the land are paid too less as compensation amount and they also receive an emotional setback because they have been staying there since ages. The environment is also degraded because mostly these cases are in sensitive environmental zones. In an age when we are talking about inclusive development, how can we turn a deaf ear to the problems of those people who are being displaced in the wake of these land acquisitions?The government who is influenced by the industry favours these acquisitions in the name of development. The opposition party opposes these acquisitions just for namesake. There have been cases in which the moment the opposition party came into power; they cleared the same project which they had been opposing earlier. The archaic Land Acquisition Act, 1894 which was being followed in our country has been amended and merged with resettlement and rehabilitation. The new Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act, 2013 promises to be very comprehensive taking into account all the aspects related to land acquisition. Nothing can be said with certainty about the outcome of this law. The political economy of land acquisition needs to undergo a change and there should be development of all if development at all is the motive behind these acquisitions. This paper based on an extensive review of available literature would seek to reflect on various aspects of land acquisition and inclusive development.
{"title":"Land Acquisition and Development: Who Gets the Actual Benefit?","authors":"P. Kumari","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2779353","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2779353","url":null,"abstract":"Land, labor, capital and entrepreneurship- these are the four major factors of production in an economy. While labor is provided by the working class and capital and entrepreneurship by the capitalist class; there is a major role of government in providing the first one which is land. The government has been carrying out land acquisition for various developmental projects in India at different times. They acquire land either for projects that are set up by the government itself (for example, land being acquired at Ranchi in Jharkhand for setting up the Jharkhand Central University) or for projects being set up by multinational corporations in our country such as the land acquisitions being carried out in Jagatsinghpur district of Odisha for the Korean steel company POSCO. These two are only a few of the recent examples. There have been innumerable cases of such nature in the past too like Singur and Nandigram.It is vouched that these acquisitions are vital for the development of the country. But what about the development of those people who are displaced due to these land acquisitions? Certain communities and the environment are grossly affected by these projects for which land is being acquired. These communities lose their land, houses, source of livelihood and sustenance and come up in a conflict with the state. Their economic activities are disrupted due to relocation to different places which usually lack infrastructural facilities. The owners of the land are paid too less as compensation amount and they also receive an emotional setback because they have been staying there since ages. The environment is also degraded because mostly these cases are in sensitive environmental zones. In an age when we are talking about inclusive development, how can we turn a deaf ear to the problems of those people who are being displaced in the wake of these land acquisitions?The government who is influenced by the industry favours these acquisitions in the name of development. The opposition party opposes these acquisitions just for namesake. There have been cases in which the moment the opposition party came into power; they cleared the same project which they had been opposing earlier. The archaic Land Acquisition Act, 1894 which was being followed in our country has been amended and merged with resettlement and rehabilitation. The new Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act, 2013 promises to be very comprehensive taking into account all the aspects related to land acquisition. Nothing can be said with certainty about the outcome of this law. The political economy of land acquisition needs to undergo a change and there should be development of all if development at all is the motive behind these acquisitions. This paper based on an extensive review of available literature would seek to reflect on various aspects of land acquisition and inclusive development.","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130509057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Though Siberia and the Russian Far East are often considered oil and gas reservoirs, the southern areas of these regions have significant potential for water-intensive production, such as agricultural goods, chemicals, pulp and paper, metals, hydro energy. This potential is strengthening due to the proximity of the most dynamic and water demanding region of the world—the Asian-Pacific region (APR), where the challenge of water and food security is recognized as strategic. Russian political discourse has always been determined by a Eurocentric focus which has seriously constrained intensive cooperation with Asia. This paper investigates the opportunities and challenges to Siberia and the Russian Far East from the perspective of interdependence theory and its water specification—the virtual water concept. The most significant outcomes of the research refer to both theory and strategy. We show that in some cases the virtual water trade may help the water economy on a global scale but worsen the long-term regional water security status and increase the level of water stress in particular areas. The implication for Russia and APR is that Russia’s integration into the APR virtual water market would provide considerable benefits for Russia which include economic gains. More importantly, according to the interdependence theory, as well as a defensive realism, Russia, acting as a guarantor of Asia’s food and water security, would provide long-term positive effects for the whole APR through reduced water stress, and the desecuritization of the food trade and water allocation in the region
{"title":"The Virtual Water of Siberia and the Russian Far East for the Asia-Pacific Region: Global Gains vs Regional Sustainability","authors":"A. Likhacheva, I. Makarov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2536894","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2536894","url":null,"abstract":"Though Siberia and the Russian Far East are often considered oil and gas reservoirs, the southern areas of these regions have significant potential for water-intensive production, such as agricultural goods, chemicals, pulp and paper, metals, hydro energy. This potential is strengthening due to the proximity of the most dynamic and water demanding region of the world—the Asian-Pacific region (APR), where the challenge of water and food security is recognized as strategic. Russian political discourse has always been determined by a Eurocentric focus which has seriously constrained intensive cooperation with Asia. This paper investigates the opportunities and challenges to Siberia and the Russian Far East from the perspective of interdependence theory and its water specification—the virtual water concept. The most significant outcomes of the research refer to both theory and strategy. We show that in some cases the virtual water trade may help the water economy on a global scale but worsen the long-term regional water security status and increase the level of water stress in particular areas. The implication for Russia and APR is that Russia’s integration into the APR virtual water market would provide considerable benefits for Russia which include economic gains. More importantly, according to the interdependence theory, as well as a defensive realism, Russia, acting as a guarantor of Asia’s food and water security, would provide long-term positive effects for the whole APR through reduced water stress, and the desecuritization of the food trade and water allocation in the region","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"267 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116242797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2014-09-13DOI: 10.18848/1835-4432/CGP/V01I02/40813
R. Anderson, Léo-Paul Dana, Aldene Meis Mason
This paper gives an account of what Dene residents of the Sahtu Region have to say about globalisation and petroleum development. Starting in 2005, we interviewed people across the Sahtu Region. Respondents recognize the shortterm advantages of building a pipeline, but they are concerned about the long-term impact on the environment that ensures their livelihood.
{"title":"Globalisation and the Dene First Nations of Canada","authors":"R. Anderson, Léo-Paul Dana, Aldene Meis Mason","doi":"10.18848/1835-4432/CGP/V01I02/40813","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18848/1835-4432/CGP/V01I02/40813","url":null,"abstract":"This paper gives an account of what Dene residents of the Sahtu Region have to say about globalisation and petroleum development. Starting in 2005, we interviewed people across the Sahtu Region. Respondents recognize the shortterm advantages of building a pipeline, but they are concerned about the long-term impact on the environment that ensures their livelihood.","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"148 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116538681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The relationship between the size of government and economic growth is a contentious issue. The present study is undertaken to test hypothesis that the relationship between government size and economic growth is nonlinear. This panel data study involves ASEAN countries over the period 1980–2011. We modify the empirical model of Chen and Lee (2005) and employ a smooth transition regression model for panel data (PSTR) to test the threshold effect of government size. Robustness checks of the model are conducted by GLS and GMM estimation. Empirical results show that there exists a nonlinear relationship between government size and economic growth for ASEAN countries. The threshold level of government consumption spending is 25.69 per cent GDP. As government size exceeds this level, economic growth reduces by 0.2 per cent. Our findings suggest that governments in ASEAN countries consider optimal government size at round 25.69 per cent GDP for supporting sustainable economic growth.
{"title":"The Threshold of Government Size and Economic Growth for ASEAN Countries: An Analysis of the Smooth Transition Regression Model","authors":"S. D. Thanh, Bui Mai Hoai","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2493744","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2493744","url":null,"abstract":"The relationship between the size of government and economic growth is a contentious issue. The present study is undertaken to test hypothesis that the relationship between government size and economic growth is nonlinear. This panel data study involves ASEAN countries over the period 1980–2011. We modify the empirical model of Chen and Lee (2005) and employ a smooth transition regression model for panel data (PSTR) to test the threshold effect of government size. Robustness checks of the model are conducted by GLS and GMM estimation. Empirical results show that there exists a nonlinear relationship between government size and economic growth for ASEAN countries. The threshold level of government consumption spending is 25.69 per cent GDP. As government size exceeds this level, economic growth reduces by 0.2 per cent. Our findings suggest that governments in ASEAN countries consider optimal government size at round 25.69 per cent GDP for supporting sustainable economic growth.","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126591904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We humans are born with narrative fallacy as we like to summarize or simplify stuff to reduce the dimension or impact of matters. But history is opaque and hence the fallacy is associated with our vulnerability to over interpretation over actualities. Present economic environment is bit more complex than we seem to realise and it seems we are gliding into kind of syndrome, but not necessarily bad syndrome. This implies that it has periods of calm and stability, with most problems concentrated into small number of unforeseen events. However, the issue is that the unforeseen events have multiplied beyond measurability (geopolitical tension, terrorism, shadow banking, currency vulnerability, etc). Considering the weather-related events which has not changed much but what has changed are its intensity, reoccurrence and socioeconomic consequences of such occurrences. Just to narrate the current threat of El Nino event which is yet to be “confirmed” commands more and more severe economic consequences than it did in the past because of globalization which has created inter-locking fragility. Adding to that we have never lived before under the threat of a global collapse as financial institutions across the globe have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks and almost all banks are now interrelated. So the financial ecosystem is swelling into gigantic, excessively close, bureaucratic banks -- when one sneezes, all other seems to catch cold or rush for blankets (IMF). This paper is in continuation to Economic Tribology presented at Palm Oil Conference (POC March 2014, Kuala Lumpur), wherein it was concluded that we are in the era of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity) and it’s here to stay. It tries demystifying the conundrum of VUCA and its impact on Palm Oil by connecting the dots between changing drivers of global growth, weather uncertainty, food v/s fuel, analysing the market structure of edible oil complex (producers and consumers) with especial focus in India and thereafter estimating the price forecasts for Palm Oil along with Crude Oil (conventional fuel) and Currency for Q2 2014.
{"title":"Demystifying Palm Oil in the Era of VUCA & Its Impact on India","authors":"Ali Muhammad Lakdawala","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2706988","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2706988","url":null,"abstract":"We humans are born with narrative fallacy as we like to summarize or simplify stuff to reduce the dimension or impact of matters. But history is opaque and hence the fallacy is associated with our vulnerability to over interpretation over actualities. Present economic environment is bit more complex than we seem to realise and it seems we are gliding into kind of syndrome, but not necessarily bad syndrome. This implies that it has periods of calm and stability, with most problems concentrated into small number of unforeseen events. However, the issue is that the unforeseen events have multiplied beyond measurability (geopolitical tension, terrorism, shadow banking, currency vulnerability, etc). Considering the weather-related events which has not changed much but what has changed are its intensity, reoccurrence and socioeconomic consequences of such occurrences. Just to narrate the current threat of El Nino event which is yet to be “confirmed” commands more and more severe economic consequences than it did in the past because of globalization which has created inter-locking fragility. Adding to that we have never lived before under the threat of a global collapse as financial institutions across the globe have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks and almost all banks are now interrelated. So the financial ecosystem is swelling into gigantic, excessively close, bureaucratic banks -- when one sneezes, all other seems to catch cold or rush for blankets (IMF). This paper is in continuation to Economic Tribology presented at Palm Oil Conference (POC March 2014, Kuala Lumpur), wherein it was concluded that we are in the era of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity) and it’s here to stay. It tries demystifying the conundrum of VUCA and its impact on Palm Oil by connecting the dots between changing drivers of global growth, weather uncertainty, food v/s fuel, analysing the market structure of edible oil complex (producers and consumers) with especial focus in India and thereafter estimating the price forecasts for Palm Oil along with Crude Oil (conventional fuel) and Currency for Q2 2014.","PeriodicalId":107878,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134117378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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