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Inference in a similarity-based spatial autoregressive model 基于相似性的空间自回归模型中的推理
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-12 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2205339
Offer Lieberman, Francesca Rossi
Abstract In this article, we develop asymptotic theory for a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model where the network structure is defined according to a similarity-based weight matrix, in line with the similarity theory, which in turn has an axiomatic justification. We prove consistency of the quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator and derive its limit distribution. The contribution of this article is two-fold: on one hand, we incorporate a regression component in the data generating process while allowing the similarity structure to accommodate non-ordered data and by estimating explicitly the weight of the similarity, allowing it to be equal to unity. On the other hand, this work complements the literature on SAR models by adopting a data-driven weight matrix which depends on a finite set of parameters that have to be estimated. The spatial parameter, which corresponds to the weight of the similarity structure, is in turn allowed to take values at the boundary of the standard SAR parameter space. In addition, our setup accommodates strong forms of cross-sectional correlation that are normally ruled out in the standard SAR literature. Our framework is general enough to include as special cases also the random walk with a drift model, the local to unit root model (LUR) with a drift and the model for moderate integration with a drift.
摘要在本文中,我们发展了空间自回归(SAR)模型的渐近理论,其中网络结构是根据基于相似性的权重矩阵定义的,符合相似性理论,而相似性理论又具有公理化的正当性。我们证明了拟最大似然估计的一致性,并导出了它的极限分布。这篇文章的贡献有两方面:一方面,我们在数据生成过程中加入了回归组件,同时允许相似性结构适应非有序数据,并明确估计相似性的权重,使其等于一。另一方面,这项工作通过采用数据驱动的权重矩阵来补充SAR模型的文献,该权重矩阵取决于必须估计的有限参数集。与相似性结构的权重相对应的空间参数又被允许在标准SAR参数空间的边界处取值。此外,我们的设置适应了标准SAR文献中通常排除的强形式的横截面相关性。我们的框架足够通用,可以作为特例包括带有漂移的随机游动模型、带有漂移的局部到单位根模型(LUR)以及带有漂移的适度集成模型。
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引用次数: 0
Panel cointegrating polynomial regressions: group-mean fully modified OLS estimation and inference 面板协整多项式回归:群均值完全修正OLS估计和推理
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-21 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2178141
M. Wagner, Karsten Reichold
Abstract We develop group-mean fully modified OLS (FM-OLS) estimation and inference for panels of cointegrating polynomial regressions, i.e., regressions that include an integrated process and its powers as explanatory variables. The stationary errors are allowed to be serially correlated, the integrated regressors – allowed to contain drifts – to be endogenous and, as usual in the panel literature, we include individual-specific fixed effects and also allow for individual-specific time trends. We consider a fixed cross-section dimension and asymptotics in the time dimension only. Within this setting, we develop cross-section dependence robust inference for the group-mean estimator. In both the simulations and an illustrative application estimating environmental Kuznets curves (EKCs) for carbon dioxide emissions we compare our group-mean FM-OLS approach with a recently proposed pooled FM-OLS approach of de Jong and Wagner.
摘要我们开发了群均值完全修正OLS(FM-OLS)估计和推理,用于协整多项式回归的面板,即包括集成过程及其作为解释变量的能力的回归。允许平稳误差是序列相关的,允许包含漂移的综合回归因子是内生的,并且,像小组文献中通常的那样,我们包括个体特定的固定效应,也允许个体特定的时间趋势。我们只考虑固定的横截面维度和时间维度上的渐近性。在这种设置下,我们为群均值估计器开发了横截面相关性鲁棒推理。在模拟和估算二氧化碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKCs)的说明性应用中,我们将我们的群均值FM-OLS方法与德容和瓦格纳最近提出的混合FM-OLS法进行了比较。
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引用次数: 1
Bandwidth selection for nonparametric regression with errors-in-variables 带有变量误差的非参数回归的带宽选择
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-21 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2191105
Hao Dong, Taisuke Otsu, L. Taylor
Abstract We propose two novel bandwidth selection procedures for the nonparametric regression model with classical measurement error in the regressors. Each method evaluates the prediction errors of the regression using a second (density) deconvolution. The first approach uses a typical leave-one-out cross-validation criterion, while the second applies a bootstrap approach and the concept of out-of-bag prediction. We show the asymptotic validity of both procedures and compare them to the SIMEX method in a Monte Carlo study. As well as dramatically reducing computational cost, the methods proposed in this article lead to lower mean integrated squared error (MISE) compared to the current state-of-the-art.
摘要针对回归量中存在经典测量误差的非参数回归模型,提出了两种新的带宽选择方法。每种方法都使用第二次(密度)反卷积来评估回归的预测误差。第一种方法使用典型的leave-one-out交叉验证标准,而第二种方法应用自举方法和out- bag预测的概念。我们证明了这两种方法的渐近有效性,并将它们与蒙特卡洛研究中的SIMEX方法进行了比较。除了显著降低计算成本外,本文中提出的方法与当前最先进的方法相比,具有更低的平均积分平方误差(MISE)。
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引用次数: 2
Inference and extrapolation in finite populations with special attention to clustering 有限种群中的推断和外推,特别注意聚类
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-21 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2178137
R. Startz, D. Steigerwald
Abstract Statistical inference in economics is commonly based on formulas assuming infinite populations. We present appropriate formulas for use when sampling from finite populations, with special attention given to issues of treatment effects and to issues of clustering. Issues of whether to apply finite population corrections are often subtle, and appropriate corrections may depend on difficult to observe parameters, leaving the investigator only with bounds on relevant estimator variances.
摘要经济学中的统计推断通常是基于假设无限人口的公式。我们提出了从有限总体中采样时使用的适当公式,并特别注意治疗效果和聚类问题。是否应用有限总体校正的问题通常很微妙,适当的校正可能取决于难以观察的参数,使研究者只能对相关的估计方差进行限制。
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引用次数: 0
An application of copulas to OPEC’s changing influence on fossil fuel prices copula在OPEC对化石燃料价格影响变化中的应用
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-30 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2222637
C. Grazian, Alex McInnes
Abstract This work examines how the dependence structures between energy futures asset prices differ in two periods identified before and after the 2008 global financial crisis. These two periods were characterized by a difference in the number of extraordinary meetings of OPEC countries organized to announce a change of oil production. In the period immediately following the global financial crisis, the decrease in oil prices and oil and gas demand forced OPEC countries to make frequent adjustments to the production of oil, while, since the first quarter of 2010, the recovery led to more regular meetings, with only three organized extraordinary meetings. We propose to use a copula model to study how the dependence structure among energy prices changed among the two periods. The use of copula models allows to introduce flexible and realistic models for the marginal time series; once marginal parameters are estimated, the estimates are used to fit several copula models for all asset combinations. Model selection techniques based on information criteria are implemented to choose the best models both for the univariate asset prices series and for the distribution of co-movements. The changes in the dependence structure of couple of assets are investigated through copula functionals and their uncertainty estimated through a bootstrapping method. We find the strength of dependence between asset combinations considerably differ between the two periods, showing a significant decrease for all the pairs of assets.
摘要本研究考察了2008年全球金融危机前后两个时期能源期货资产价格之间的依赖结构差异。这两个时期的特点是欧佩克国家为宣布石油产量变化而组织的特别会议的次数有所不同。在全球金融危机之后的一段时间里,油价和油气需求的下降迫使欧佩克成员国频繁调整石油产量,而自2010年第一季度以来,经济复苏导致欧佩克召开了更多的定期会议,只有三次有组织的特别会议。我们建议使用一个联结模型来研究两个时期能源价格之间的依赖结构是如何变化的。使用copula模型可以为边际时间序列引入灵活和现实的模型;一旦边际参数被估计,估计将被用来拟合所有资产组合的几个copula模型。采用基于信息标准的模型选择技术,对单变量资产价格序列和协同运动分布选择最佳模型。利用耦合泛函研究了资产对依赖结构的变化,并利用自举法估计了其不确定性。我们发现资产组合之间的依赖强度在两个时期之间有很大差异,所有资产对都显着下降。
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引用次数: 0
Indirect inference estimation of higher-order spatial autoregressive models 高阶空间自回归模型的间接推断估计
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-07 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2178136
Yong Bao
Abstract This paper proposes estimating parameters in higher-order spatial autoregressive models, where the error term also follows a spatial autoregression and its innovations are heteroskedastic, by matching the simple ordinary least squares estimator with its analytical approximate expectation, following the principle of indirect inference. The resulting estimator is shown to be consistent, asymptotically normal, simulation-free, and robust to unknown heteroskedasticity. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate its good finite-sample properties in comparison with existing estimators. An empirical study of Airbnb rental prices in the city of Asheville illustrates that the structure of spatial correlation and effects of various factors at the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic are quite different from those during the second summer. Notably, during the pandemic, safety is valued more and on-line reviews are valued much less.
摘要本文提出了高阶空间自回归模型中的参数估计,其中误差项也遵循空间自回归,并且其创新是异基的,通过将简单的普通最小二乘估计量与其分析近似期望相匹配,遵循间接推理原理。所得到的估计量是一致的、渐近正态的、无模拟的,并且对未知异方差具有鲁棒性。与现有的估计量相比,蒙特卡罗模拟证明了其良好的有限样本性质。一项针对阿什维尔市Airbnb租赁价格的实证研究表明,新冠肺炎大流行早期的空间相关性结构和各种因素的影响与第二个夏天的情况大不相同。值得注意的是,在疫情期间,安全性受到更多重视,而在线评论受到的重视要少得多。
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引用次数: 0
Nonparametric identification and estimation of heterogeneous causal effects under conditional independence 条件独立条件下异质因果效应的非参数识别与估计
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-07 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2178140
Sungho Noh
Abstract In this article, I propose a nonparametric strategy to identify the distribution of heterogeneous causal effects. A set of identification restrictions proposed in this article differs from existing approaches in three ways. First, it extends the random coefficient model by allowing potentially nonlinear interactions between distributional parameters and the set of covariates. Second, the causal effect distributions identified in this article give an alternative to those under the rank invariance assumption. Third, identified distribution lies within the sharp bound of distributions of the treatment effect. I develop a consistent nonparametric estimator exploiting the identifying restriction by extending the conventional statistical deconvolution method to the Rubin causal framework. Results from a Monte Carlo experiment and an application to wage loss of displaced workers suggest that the method yields robust estimates under various scenarios.
摘要在本文中,我提出了一种非参数策略来识别异质因果效应的分布。本文提出的一套身份限制与现有方法有三个不同之处。首先,它通过允许分布参数和协变量集之间潜在的非线性相互作用来扩展随机系数模型。其次,本文中确定的因果效应分布为秩不变性假设下的因果效应提供了一种替代方案。第三,已确定的分布位于治疗效果分布的锐界内。我通过将传统的统计反卷积方法扩展到鲁宾因果框架,开发了一个利用识别限制的一致非参数估计量。蒙特卡洛实验的结果和对失业工人工资损失的应用表明,该方法在各种情况下都能产生稳健的估计。
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引用次数: 0
GLS estimation and confidence sets for the date of a single break in models with trends 具有趋势的模型中单个中断日期的GLS估计和置信集
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2178088
E. Beutner, Yicong Lin, Stephan Smeekes
Abstract We develop a Feasible Generalized Least Squares estimator of the date of a structural break in level and/or trend. The estimator is based on a consistent estimate of a T-dimensional inverse autocovariance matrix. A cubic polynomial transformation of break date estimates can be approximated by a nonstandard yet nuisance parameter free distribution asymptotically. The new limiting distribution captures the asymmetry and bimodality in finite samples and is applicable for inference with a single, known, set of critical values. We consider the confidence intervals/sets for break dates based on both Wald-type tests and by inverting multiple likelihood ratio (LR) tests. A simulation study shows that the proposed estimator increases the empirical concentration probability in a small neighborhood of the true break date and potentially reduces the mean squared errors. The LR-based confidence intervals/sets have good coverage while maintaining informative length even with highly persistent errors and small break sizes.
摘要:本文提出了一种可行的广义最小二乘估计方法来估计结构在水平和/或趋势上的断裂时间。该估计器基于t维逆自协方差矩阵的一致估计。断裂日期估计的三次多项式变换可以用一个非标准的无扰参数分布渐近逼近。新的极限分布捕获了有限样本中的不对称性和双峰性,并适用于单一已知临界值集的推理。我们基于wald型检验和反向多重似然比(LR)检验来考虑分手日期的置信区间/集。仿真研究表明,该估计器提高了真实断裂日期小邻域内的经验集中概率,并有可能减小均方误差。基于lr的置信区间/集具有良好的覆盖率,即使在高度持续的错误和较小的中断大小下也能保持信息长度。
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引用次数: 2
The two-way Mundlak estimator 双向蒙德拉克估计量
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2178139
B. Baltagi
Abstract Mundlak shows that the fixed effects estimator is equivalent to the random effects estimator in the one-way error component model once the random individual effects are modeled as a linear function of all the averaged regressors over time. In the spirit of Mundlak, this paper shows that this result also holds for the two-way error component model once the individual and time effects are modeled as linear functions of all the averaged regressors across time and across individuals. Wooldridge also shows that the two-way fixed effects estimator can be obtained as a pooled OLS with the regressors augmented by the time and individual averages and calls it the two-way Mundlak estimator. While Mundlak used GLS rather than OLS on this augmented regression, we show that both estimators are equivalent for this augmented regression. This extends Baltagi’s results from the one-way to the two-way error component model. The F test suggested by Mundlak to test for this correlation between the random effects and the regressors generate a Hausman type test that is easily generalizable to the two-way Mundlak regression. In fact, the resulting F-tests for the two-way error component regression are related to the Hausman type tests proposed by Kang for the two-way error component model.
Mundlak表明,一旦将随机个体效应建模为所有平均回归量随时间的线性函数,则固定效应估计量与单向误差分量模型中的随机效应估计量等效。在蒙德拉克的精神下,本文表明,一旦个体和时间效应被建模为所有平均回归量跨时间和跨个体的线性函数,这一结果也适用于双向误差分量模型。Wooldridge还表明,双向固定效应估计量可以作为回归量随时间和个体平均值增广的混合OLS得到,并称之为双向Mundlak估计量。虽然Mundlak在这个增广回归上使用GLS而不是OLS,但我们表明这两个估计量对于这个增广回归是等效的。这将Baltagi的结果从单向错误组件模型扩展到双向错误组件模型。Mundlak提出的检验随机效应和回归量之间相关性的F检验产生了一个Hausman型检验,很容易推广到双向Mundlak回归。事实上,双向误差分量回归的f检验结果与Kang提出的双向误差分量模型的Hausman型检验有关。
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引用次数: 3
Estimating flow data models of international trade: dual gravity and spatial interactions 国际贸易流量数据模型估算:双重重力与空间相互作用
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2178087
Fei Jin, Lung-fei Lee, Jihai Yu
Abstract This article investigates asymptotic properties of quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimates for flow data on the dual gravity model in international trade with spatial interactions (dependence). The dual gravity model has a well-established economic foundation, and it takes the form of a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model. The dual gravity model originates from Behrens et al., but the spatial weights matrix motivated by their economic theory has a feature that violates existing regularity conditions for asymptotic econometrics analysis. By overcoming the limitations of existing asymptotic theory, we show that QML estimates are consistent and asymptotically normal. The simulation results show the satisfactory finite sample performance of the estimates. We illustrate the usefulness of the model by investigating the McCallum “border puzzle” in the gravity literature.
摘要本文研究了具有空间相互作用(依赖)的国际贸易中双重力模型流量数据的拟最大似然估计的渐近性质。双重重力模型有着坚实的经济基础,它采用了空间自回归(SAR)模型的形式。二重引力模型起源于Behrens等人,但由他们的经济理论驱动的空间权重矩阵具有违反渐近计量经济学分析现有规则性条件的特征。通过克服现有渐近理论的局限性,我们证明了QML估计是一致的和渐近正态的。仿真结果表明,有限样本估计具有令人满意的性能。我们通过研究引力文献中的麦卡勒姆“边界谜题”来说明该模型的有用性。
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引用次数: 1
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Econometric Reviews
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