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Automatic variable selection for semiparametric spatial autoregressive model 半参数空间自回归模型的变量自动选择
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-07-12 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2225947
Fang Lu, Sisheng Liu, Jing Yang, Xuewen Lu
Abstract This article studies the generalized method of moment estimation of semiparametric varying coefficient partially linear spatial autoregressive model. The technique of profile least squares is employed and all estimators have explicit formulas which are computationally convenient. We derive the limiting distributions of the proposed estimators for both parametric and non parametric components. Variable selection procedures based on smooth-threshold estimating equations are proposed to automatically eliminate irrelevant parameters and zero varying coefficient functions. Compared to the alternative approaches based on shrinkage penalty, the new method is easily implemented. Oracle properties of the resulting estimators are established. Large amounts of Monte Carlo simulations confirm our theories and demonstrate that the estimators perform reasonably well in finite samples. We also apply the novel methods to an empirical data analysis.
摘要本文研究了半参数变系数部分线性空间自回归模型的广义矩估计方法。采用轮廓最小二乘技术,所有估计量都有显式公式,计算方便。我们导出了所提出的参数和非参数分量估计量的极限分布。提出了基于光滑阈值估计方程的变量选择程序,以自动消除无关参数和零变系数函数。与基于收缩惩罚的替代方法相比,新方法易于实现。建立了结果估计量的Oracle性质。大量的蒙特卡罗模拟证实了我们的理论,并证明了估计量在有限样本中表现得相当好。我们还将新方法应用于实证数据分析。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting Levels in Loglinear Unit Root Models 对数线性单位根模型的预测水平
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-07-12 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2224175
Kees Jan van Garderen
Abstract This article considers unbiased prediction of levels when data series are modeled as a random walk with drift and other exogenous factors after taking natural logs. We derive the unique unbiased predictors for growth and its variance. Derivation of level forecasts is more involved because the last observation enters the conditional expectation and is highly correlated with the parameter estimates, even asymptotically. This leads to conceptual questions regarding conditioning on endogenous variables. We prove that no conditionally unbiased forecast exists. We derive forecasts that are unconditionally unbiased and take into account estimation uncertainty, non linearity of the transformations, and the correlation between the last observation and estimate, which is quantitatively more important than estimation uncertainty and future disturbances together. The exact unbiased forecasts are shown to have lower Mean Squared Forecast Error (MSFE) than usual forecasts. The results are applied to Bitcoin price levels and a disaggregated eight sector model of UK industrial production.
摘要本文考虑了在取自然对数后,将数据序列建模为具有漂移和其他外部因素的随机游动时对水平的无偏预测。我们导出了增长及其方差的唯一无偏预测因子。水平预测的推导更为复杂,因为最后一次观测进入条件期望,并且与参数估计高度相关,甚至是渐近的。这导致了关于内生变量条件作用的概念问题。我们证明了不存在条件无偏的预测。我们得出的预测是无条件无偏的,并考虑了估计的不确定性、变换的非线性以及上次观测和估计之间的相关性,这在数量上比估计的不确定度和未来扰动加在一起更重要。精确无偏预测的均方预测误差(MSFE)低于通常的预测。研究结果应用于比特币价格水平和英国工业生产的八部门分类模型。
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引用次数: 0
Linear fixed-effects estimation with nonrepeated outcomes 具有非重复结果的线性固定效应估计
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-07-12 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2224658
Helmut Farbmacher, H. Tauchmann
Abstract We demonstrate that popular linear fixed-effects panel-data estimators are biased and inconsistent when applied in a discrete-time hazard setting, even if the data-generating process is consistent with the linear model. The bias is not just survival bias, but originates from the impossibility to transform the model such that the remaining disturbance term becomes conditional mean independent of the explanatory variables. The bias is hence present even in the absence of unobserved heterogeneity. We discuss instrumental variables estimation, using first-differences of the explanatory variables as instruments, as alternative estimation strategy. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application substantiate our theoretical results.
摘要我们证明了流行的线性固定效应面板数据估计器在应用于离散时间风险设置时是有偏差和不一致的,即使数据生成过程与线性模型一致。这种偏差不仅仅是生存偏差,而是源于无法对模型进行转换,从而使剩余的干扰项成为独立于解释变量的条件均值。因此,即使没有未观察到的异质性,偏倚也是存在的。我们讨论了工具变量的估计,使用解释变量的一阶差分作为工具,作为替代估计策略。蒙特卡罗模拟和经验应用证实了我们的理论结果。
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引用次数: 4
Robust nonparametric frontier estimation in two steps 两步鲁棒非参数边界估计
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2219183
Yining Chen, H. Torrent, F. Ziegelmann
Abstract We propose a robust methodology for estimating production frontiers with multi-dimensional input via a two-step nonparametric regression, in which we estimate the level and shape of the frontier before shifting it to an appropriate position. Our main contribution is to derive a novel frontier estimation method under a variety of flexible models which is robust to the presence of outliers and possesses some inherent advantages over traditional frontier estimators. Our approach may be viewed as a simplification, yet a generalization, of those proposed by Martins-Filho and coauthors, who estimate frontier surfaces in three steps. In particular, outliers, as well as commonly seen shape constraints of the frontier surfaces, such as concavity and monotonicity, can be straightforwardly handled by our estimation procedure. We show consistency and asymptotic distributional theory of our resulting estimators under standard assumptions in the multi-dimensional input setting. The competitive finite-sample performances of our estimators are highlighted in both simulation studies and empirical data analysis.
摘要:本文提出了一种鲁棒的方法,通过两步非参数回归来估计具有多维输入的生产边界,在将其移动到适当位置之前,我们估计了边界的水平和形状。我们的主要贡献是在各种灵活模型下推导出一种新的边界估计方法,该方法对异常值的存在具有鲁棒性,并且比传统的边界估计方法具有一些固有的优点。我们的方法可以看作是对Martins-Filho及其合作者提出的方法的一种简化,但也是一种一般化的方法,后者分三步估计边界表面。特别地,我们的估计程序可以直接处理异常值,以及常见的边界表面的形状约束,如凹凸性和单调性。在多维输入设置的标准假设下,我们证明了我们得到的估计量的一致性和渐近分布理论。在模拟研究和实证数据分析中,我们的估计器具有有限样本的竞争力。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting vector autoregressions with mixed roots in the vicinity of unity 混合根在单位附近的预测向量自回归
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2213605
Y. Tu, Xinling Xie
Abstract This article evaluates the forecast performance of model averaging forecasts in a nonstationary vector autoregression with mixed roots in the vicinity of unity. The deviation from unit root allows for local to unity, moderate deviation from unity and strong unit root, and the direction of such deviation could be from either the stationary or the explosive side. We provide a theoretical foundation for comparison among various forecasts, including the least squares estimator, the constrained estimator imposing the unit root constraint, and the selection or average over these two basic estimators. Furthermore, three new types of estimators are constructed, i.e., the bagging versions of the pretest estimator, the Mallows-pretest estimator that marries the Mallows averaging criterion and the Wald test, and the Mallows-bagging estimator that combines the Mallows averaging criterion and bagging technique. The asymptotic risks are shown to depend on the local parameters, which are not consistently estimable. Via Monte Carlo simulations, graphic comparisons indicate that the Mallows averaging estimator has both robust and outstanding forecasting performance. Model averaging over the vector autoregressive lag order is further considered to address the issue of model uncertainty in the lag specification. Finite sample simulations show that the Mallows averaging estimator performs superior to other frequently used selection and averaging methods. The application to forecasting the financial indices popularly used in the predictive regression further illustrates the practical merit of the proposed estimator.
摘要本文评价了混合根在单位附近的非平稳向量自回归模型平均预测的预测性能。单位根偏差可分为局部偏统一、中等偏统一和强单位根三种,偏离方向可为静止侧,也可为爆炸侧。我们为各种预测之间的比较提供了理论基础,包括最小二乘估计量,施加单位根约束的约束估计量,以及这两个基本估计量的选择或平均。在此基础上,构造了三种新的估计量,即预试估计量的bagging版本、Mallows-pretest估计量结合了Mallows平均准则和Wald检验,以及Mallows-bagging估计量结合Mallows平均准则和bagging技术。渐近风险依赖于局部参数,而局部参数是不可一致估计的。通过蒙特卡罗模拟,图形比较表明,Mallows平均估计器具有鲁棒性和出色的预测性能。进一步考虑了对向量自回归滞后阶的模型平均,以解决滞后规范中的模型不确定性问题。有限样本仿真结果表明,Mallows平均估计方法优于其他常用的选择和平均方法。在预测回归中常用的金融指标预测中的应用进一步说明了该估计器的实用价值。
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引用次数: 0
Latent local-to-unity models 潜在的局部到单位模型
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-29 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2215034
Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu
Abstract The article studies a class of state-space models where the state equation is a local-to-unity process. The parameter of interest is the persistence parameter of the latent process. The large sample theory for the least squares (LS) estimator and an instrumental variable (IV) estimator of the persistent parameter in the autoregressive (AR) representation of the model is developed under two sets of conditions. In the first set of conditions, the measurement error is independent and identically distributed, and the error term in the state equation is stationary and fractionally integrated with memory parameter . For both estimators, the convergence rate and the asymptotic distribution crucially depend on d. The LS estimator has a severe downward bias, which is aggravated even more by the measurement error when . The IV estimator eliminates the effects of the measurement error and reduces the bias. In the second set of conditions, the measurement error is independent but not necessarily identically distributed, and the error term in the state equation is strongly mixing. In this case, the IV estimator still leads to a smaller bias than the LS estimator. Special cases of our models and results in relation to those in the literature are discussed.
摘要本文研究了一类状态空间模型,其中状态方程是一个局部到单位过程。感兴趣的参数是潜在过程的持久性参数。在两组条件下,发展了模型自回归(AR)表示中持久参数的最小二乘(LS)估计量和工具变量(IV)估计量的大样本理论。在第一组条件下,测量误差是独立的同分布的,状态方程中的误差项是稳定的,并与记忆参数进行了分数积分。对于这两种估计量,收敛速度和渐近分布主要取决于d。LS估计量具有严重的向下偏差,当测量误差时,这种偏差会更加严重。IV估计器消除了测量误差的影响并减少了偏差。在第二组条件中,测量误差是独立的,但不一定是同分布的,并且状态方程中的误差项是强混合的。在这种情况下,IV估计器仍然导致比LS估计器更小的偏差。讨论了我们的模型的特殊情况以及与文献中的结果相关的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Endogeneity in semiparametric threshold regression models with two threshold variables 具有两个阈值变量的半参数阈值回归模型的内生性
4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-22 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2221558
Chaoyi Chen, Thanasis Stengos, Yiguo Sun
This article considers a semiparametric threshold regression model with two threshold variables. The proposed model allows endogenous threshold variables and endogenous slope regressors. Under the diminishing threshold effects framework, we derive consistency and asymptotic results of our proposed estimator for weakly dependent data. We study the finite sample performance of our proposed estimator via small Monte Carlo simulations and apply our model to classify economic growth regimes based on both national public debt and national external debt.
本文考虑具有两个阈值变量的半参数阈值回归模型。提出的模型允许内源性阈值变量和内源性斜率回归量。在阈值递减效应框架下,我们得到了弱相关数据估计量的相合性和渐近结果。我们通过小型蒙特卡罗模拟研究了我们提出的估计器的有限样本性能,并应用我们的模型对基于国家公共债务和国家外债的经济增长体制进行分类。
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引用次数: 0
A unified unit root test regardless of intercept 一个统一的单位根测试不管截距
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-12 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2217077
Bingduo Yang, Xiaohui Liu, Wei Long, Liang Peng
Abstract Using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test to verify the existence of a unit root in an autoregressive process often requires the correctly specified intercept, since the test statistics can be distinctive under different model specifications and lead to contradictory results at times. In this article, we develop a unified inference that not only unifies the specifications of the intercept but also accommodates different degrees of persistence of the underlying process and heteroscedastic errors. A simulation study shows that the resulting unified unit root test exhibits excellent size control and reasonably good power. In an empirical application, we implement the proposed test to re-examine the presence of unit roots within eleven widely used variables in stock return predictability.
摘要利用增广Dickey-Fuller检验来验证自回归过程中单位根的存在性,往往需要正确指定截距,因为在不同的模型规格下,检验统计量可能是不同的,有时会导致矛盾的结果。在本文中,我们开发了一个统一的推理,它不仅统一了截距的规格,而且还适应了潜在过程的不同程度的持久性和异方差误差。仿真研究表明,所得到的统一单位根试验具有良好的尺寸控制性和较好的功率。在一个实证应用中,我们实施了所提出的检验,以重新检验在股票收益可预测性中11个广泛使用的变量中单位根的存在。
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引用次数: 1
Optimal minimax rates of specification testing with data-driven bandwidth 以数据驱动的带宽进行规格测试的最佳最小最大速率
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-07 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2198929
K. Hitomi, Masamune Iwasawa, Y. Nishiyama
Abstract This study investigates optimal minimax rates of specification testing for linear and non-linear instrumental variable regression models. The test constructed by non-parametric kernel techniques can be rate optimal when bandwidths are selected appropriately. Since bandwidths are often selected in a data-dependent way in empirical studies, the rate-optimality of the test with data-driven bandwidths is investigated. While least squares cross-validation selects bandwidths that are optimal for estimation, it is shown not to be optimal for testing. Thus, we propose a novel bandwidth selection method for testing, the performance of which is investigated in a simulation study.
摘要本文研究了线性和非线性工具变量回归模型的规格检验的最优极小极大率。当适当选择带宽时,由非参数核技术构建的测试可以是速率最优的。由于在实证研究中,带宽通常是以数据相关的方式选择的,因此研究了数据驱动带宽测试的速率最优性。虽然最小二乘交叉验证选择了最适合估计的带宽,但它被证明不是最适合测试的。因此,我们提出了一种新的测试带宽选择方法,并在仿真研究中对其性能进行了研究。
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引用次数: 0
Monitoring the direction of the short-term trend of economic indicators 监测经济指标短期趋势的方向
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-28 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2023.2209008
E. Dagum, S. Bianconcini
Abstract Socioeconomic indicators have long been used by official statistical agencies to analyze and assess the current stage at which the economy stands via the application of linear filters used in conjunction with seasonal adjustment procedures. In this study, we propose a new set of symmetric and asymmetric weights that offer substantial gains in real-time by providing timely and more accurate information for detecting short-term trends with respect to filters commonly applied by statistical agencies. We compare the new filters to the classical ones through application to indicators of the US economy, which remains the linchpin of the global economic system. To assess the superiority of the proposed filters, we develop and evaluate explicit tests of the null hypothesis of no difference in revision accuracy of two competing filters. Furthermore, asymptotic and exact finite-sample tests are proposed and illustrated to assess if two compared filters have equal probabilities of failing to detect turning points at different time horizons after their occurrence.
摘要官方统计机构长期以来一直使用社会经济指标,通过结合季节性调整程序使用线性滤波器来分析和评估当前经济阶段。在这项研究中,我们提出了一组新的对称和非对称权重,通过提供及时、更准确的信息来检测统计机构常用的滤波器的短期趋势,可以实时获得显著的收益。我们通过应用于美国经济指标,将新的过滤器与经典过滤器进行了比较,美国经济仍然是全球经济体系的关键。为了评估所提出的滤波器的优越性,我们开发并评估了两个竞争滤波器的修正精度没有差异的零假设的显式检验。此外,还提出并举例说明了渐近和精确的有限样本检验,以评估两个比较滤波器在出现转折点后,在不同时间范围内未能检测到转折点的概率是否相等。
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引用次数: 0
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Econometric Reviews
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