Flat-plate solar collectors (FPSCs) are widely deployable for low-carbon domestic hot-water generation, yet their adoption is limited by modest thermal efficiency and intermittent performance under variable solar irradiance. This study adopts a comprehensive, multilayered approach to address these limitations, introducing a novel turbulator-enhanced hybrid solar–gas water-heating system that is investigated through both experimental studies and numerical simulations. Helical-fin and conical turbulators generate dual-swirling flows, substantially enhancing convective heat transfer and increasing thermal efficiency by up to 79% over conventional FPSCs. Coupling the collector with a domestic gas boiler ensures continuous operation under variable irradiance, improving reliability and resilience in practical settings. As a key novelty, a probabilistic, data-driven framework combining symbolic regression, Sobol sensitivity analysis, and Monte Carlo uncertainty quantification is applied to evaluate global technoeconomic and environmental performance. The analysis identifies solar irradiance and fluid mass flow rate as dominant performance drivers, while quantifying the impact of irradiance variability on levelized cost of energy and CO2 mitigation, an aspect rarely addressed in prior studies, providing actionable insights for design under uncertainty. Across five Sunbelt regions worldwide, the hybrid system reduces energy payback time by 58.8%, lowers levelized cost of energy by 37.3%, and avoids up to 3,826 kg CO2 eq yr−1 compared with gas-only systems. These results establish a robust, scalable pathway for designing resilient, uncertainty-aware, low-carbon domestic heating solutions that combine high efficiency, operational reliability, and substantial environmental benefits.
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