Energy Economics最新文献_第7页

User-centric design for energy service apps: Integrating expectations disconfirmation and innovation theories 以用户为中心的能源服务app设计：整合期望失证与创新理论

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109133

Atanu Manna , Debarun Chakraborty , Nicholas Apergis

The study extends knowledge on the determinants of user app ratings using energy service applications, namely IndianOil ONE and Hello BPCL. Therefore, applying the Expectation Disconfirmation Theory and the Diffusion of Innovation Theory, it explores how user-related variables, such as trusting expectations in the technology, intended performance, disconfirmation, and intention, as well as diffusion factors, such as relative advantage, complexity, compatibility, and observability can predict user satisfaction and rating. We applied machine learning to topic modelling and extract the topics from the Google reviews. After retrieving the topics, regression and fsQCA analyses are performed to arrive at the final findings. The results document that the app's perceived reliability, along with expectations from using it and already established behavior patterns, should be unified to retain and improve users' positive mental representation of the application. The final suggestions focus on the advantages the application should demonstrate to users, the key requirements of a properly functioning application, and simple interface navigation to gain users' trust and expectations. This provides guidelines to relevant app developers and concerned stakeholders regarding the design and interface of those apps. However, it provides further insights into energy users regarding enhancing services in the core sector.

该研究扩展了使用能源服务应用程序（即IndianOil ONE和Hello BPCL）对用户应用程序评级的决定因素的了解。因此，运用期望失确认理论和创新扩散理论，探讨用户相关变量，如对技术的信任期望、预期性能、失确认和意图，以及扩散因素，如相对优势、复杂性、兼容性和可观察性，如何预测用户满意度和评级。我们将机器学习应用于主题建模，并从谷歌评论中提取主题。在检索主题之后，进行回归和fsQCA分析以得出最终结果。结果表明，应用程序的感知可靠性，以及使用它的期望和已经建立的行为模式，应该统一起来，以保持和提高用户对应用程序的积极心理表征。最后的建议集中在应用程序应该向用户展示的优势，一个正常运行的应用程序的关键要求，以及简单的界面导航，以获得用户的信任和期望。这为相关应用程序开发人员和相关利益相关者提供了有关这些应用程序的设计和界面的指导方针。然而，它为能源用户提供了关于加强核心部门服务的进一步见解。

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引用次数: 0

The power of storytelling: How green narratives shape urban green innovation 讲故事的力量：绿色叙事如何塑造城市绿色创新

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109122

Yajing Chen , Gaoxiang Xu , Yutian Shan , Yushan Wei , Saiquan Hu , Jie She

Promoting green innovation is strategically essential for sustainable development, requiring enhanced expected returns among innovation actors. As economic expectations are shaped by narratives, government-disseminated green narratives may serve as powerful policy levers for advancing green innovation. This study employs large language models and LDA topic modeling to extract green narrative-related variables from Chinese provincial Party newspapers, combining these measures with panel data from 288 Chinese cities spanning 2011–2022 to examine how green narratives influence urban green innovation and through what mechanisms. The findings reveal that green narrative exposure significantly promotes urban green innovation through two pathways: facilitating green finance development and enhancing public environmental concern. Both the economic relevance of narrative topics and the narrativity of formats positively moderate this relationship. Further analyses confirm that narrative effects extend to firm-level green innovation quality measured by patent citations. This study demonstrates narratives as effective policy instruments for green innovation, extends green narrative research from individual to regional outcomes, and provides insights for leveraging narratives to promote substantive technological progress.

促进绿色创新对可持续发展具有重要战略意义，这需要提高创新行为体的预期回报。由于经济预期是由叙事塑造的，政府传播的绿色叙事可以作为推动绿色创新的有力政策杠杆。本研究采用大型语言模型和LDA主题模型，从中国省党报中提取绿色叙事相关变量，并结合2011-2022年288个中国城市的面板数据，研究绿色叙事如何影响城市绿色创新，以及通过何种机制影响城市绿色创新。研究发现，绿色叙事曝光通过促进绿色金融发展和增强公众环境关注度两种途径显著促进城市绿色创新。叙事主题的经济相关性和格式的叙事性都对这种关系起到正向调节作用。进一步的分析证实，叙事效应延伸到企业层面的绿色创新质量衡量专利引用。本研究证明了叙事作为绿色创新的有效政策工具，将绿色叙事研究从个体结果扩展到区域结果，并为利用叙事促进实质性技术进步提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

NIMBY-ism and green energy infrastructure: A strategic risk disclosure approach 邻避主义与绿色能源基础设施：战略风险披露方法

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109116

Liukai Yu , Mark Goh , Junjun Zheng

The resistance toward green energy infrastructure (GEI) often leads to a NIMBY (Not in My BackYard) event, and this can challenge green energy development. This paper proposes an approach for alleviating NIMBYism through strategic risk information disclosure. It involves the project developer of the GEI committing ex-ante (before risk investigation) to a signaling mechanism that strategically discloses informed signals about the risk of the GEI to the local community, who may hold heterogeneous risk priors and engage in preference-driven social learning within the community. For this, a signaling mechanism based on a network persuasion model coupled with communication learning dynamics is developed. Our results suggest that resident heterogeneity converge to divergent consensus unions (subgroups), manifesting a social stratification and segregation phenomenon in NIMBYism. The optimal signaling mechanism is a tiered threshold recommendation structure, setting tailored thresholds for each community subgroup that commits to recommending acceptance when the risk level investigated does not exceed the threshold. The effectiveness of strategic disclosure is moderated by the external benefits and the prior pessimism of the community. It may underperform or even fail under low compensation and GEI's positive externality when dealing with a conservative community. Segregation among the community subgroups is not necessarily unfavorable. Additionally, we make two extension analyses on private priors of the residents and differentiated compensation for the divergent unions. These findings can inform policy on crafting strategic risk disclosure to address NIMBYism in GEIs.

对绿色能源基础设施（GEI）的抵制往往导致邻避（不在我的后院）事件，这可能会挑战绿色能源的发展。本文提出了一种通过战略风险信息披露来缓解邻避主义的方法。它涉及到GEI的项目开发者事前（在风险调查之前）承诺一个信号机制，该机制战略性地向当地社区披露有关GEI风险的知情信号，这些社区可能持有异质性风险先验，并参与社区内偏好驱动的社会学习。为此，本文提出了一种基于网络说服模型与沟通学习动力学相结合的信号机制。研究结果表明，居民异质性趋同于分歧共识联盟（亚群体），体现了邻避主义的社会分层和隔离现象。最优的信号机制是一个分层阈值推荐结构，当所调查的风险水平不超过阈值时，为每个承诺推荐接受的社区子组设置定制的阈值。战略信息披露的有效性受外部利益和事前社会悲观情绪的调节。在低薪酬和GEI的正外部性条件下，与保守群体打交道可能表现不佳甚至失败。社区子群体之间的隔离不一定是不利的。此外，我们还对居民的私人优先权和对不同联盟的差异化补偿进行了两个可拓分析。这些发现可以为制定战略风险披露政策提供信息，以解决GEIs中的邻避主义问题。

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引用次数: 0

Automated monitoring and air pollution in border regions 边境地区空气污染自动监测

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109131

Xin Jin, Yang Gao

Automated monitoring provides an innovative solution to the persistent challenge of border pollution governance. Leveraging the quasi-natural experiment of China's nationwide deployment of automated air monitoring stations, this study systematically examines the impact of automated monitoring on air pollution in provincial border cities and its underlying mechanisms. Using a triple-difference model incorporating the border variable, we find that PM2.5 concentrations in border cities decreased by 2.43 % more than in non-border cities after the installation of monitoring stations, indicating that automated monitoring effectively mitigates the long-standing border effect of air pollution. The governance effect is achieved through three primary mechanisms: (1) legal-spatial expansion effect, characterized by a significant increase in environmental penalties for border firms; (2) regulatory avoidance effect, evidenced by a simultaneous reduction in the number of surviving industrial enterprises and polluting firms in border regions; (3) rent-seeking suppression effect, manifested as significantly reduced rent-seeking costs for border firms. Further analyses reveal that while automated regulation suppresses industrial activities in border regions, it generates significant fiscal revenue and health benefits, resulting in a net benefit of 50.04 billion yuan for these regions.

自动监测为边境污染治理的持续挑战提供了一种创新的解决方案。利用中国全国部署自动化空气监测站的准自然实验，本研究系统地考察了自动化监测对省际边境城市空气污染的影响及其潜在机制。通过引入边界变量的三差模型，我们发现边境城市的PM2.5浓度比非边境城市下降了2.43%，表明自动化监测有效缓解了长期存在的空气污染边界效应。治理效应主要通过三个机制实现：(1)法律空间扩张效应，其特征是对边境企业的环境处罚显著增加；(2)监管规避效应，表现为边境地区幸存的工业企业和污染企业数量同时减少；(3)寻租抑制效应，表现为边境企业寻租成本显著降低。进一步的分析表明，虽然自动化监管抑制了边境地区的工业活动，但它产生了巨大的财政收入和健康效益，为这些地区带来了500.04亿元的净效益。

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引用次数: 0

Energy transforming like China: the emission reduction effects of renewable energy development and its cost-benefit analysis 像中国一样的能源转型：可再生能源发展的减排效果及其成本效益分析

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109123

Beibei Shi , Guiyi Zhu , Renjie Zhang , Nan Li , Anders Ekeland

Developing renewable energy power is a key measure for developing countries to promote energy transition and achieve large-scale carbon reduction and emissions reduction. However, the effectiveness of renewable energy power in achieving emissions reduction, especially the mechanism of its role in emissions reduction and the costs and benefits during the emissions reduction process, still needs to be clarified. Given this, based on the actual development scenario of renewable energy power in China, this paper manually collected geographical distribution data for 12,139 power companies in China from 2003 to 2021 and matched it with multiple grid data sets, including “economy-carbon emissions-natural geography”. Using the unique data, this paper analyzes the impact of renewable energy power generation on regional carbon emissions and the cost-benefit of renewable energy power production.The study found that renewable energy power reduces carbon emissions through two channels: the “substitution effect” on fossil fuel power and the “Permeation effect” on the industrial and household sectors, with hydropower and wind power having the most significant emission reduction effects. Additionally, the development of renewable energy power not only promotes emission reductions in the region but also helps reduce carbon emissions in neighboring regions, demonstrating a significant spatial spillover effect. Cost-benefit estimates indicate that between 2003 and 2021, China's renewable energy power generation could achieve annual emissions reductions of nearly 20.382 million tons compared to fossil fuel power generation. This is equivalent to a reduction of approximately 6.75 % of carbon emissions from the power sector during the same period, with an estimated annual reduction value of approximately US$1027.97 million. Welfare analysis shows that with the increase of the proportion of renewable energy power, CS and SW increased rapidly from 2003 to 2021. The findings of this study provide strong empirical support for developing countries to promote large-scale carbon emissions reductions and socio-economic sustainable development through the development of renewable energy.

发展可再生能源发电是发展中国家推动能源转型、实现大规模减碳减排的重要举措。然而，可再生能源发电在实现减排方面的有效性，特别是其减排作用的机制以及减排过程中的成本和效益，仍有待厘清。鉴于此，本文基于中国可再生能源电力的实际发展情景，人工采集了2003 - 2021年中国12139家电力公司的地理分布数据，并与“经济-碳排放-自然地理”等多个电网数据集进行匹配。本文利用独特的数据，分析了可再生能源发电对区域碳排放的影响以及可再生能源发电的成本效益。研究发现，可再生能源发电通过对化石燃料发电的“替代效应”和对工业和家庭部门的“渗透效应”两种途径减少碳排放，其中水电和风电减排效果最为显著。此外，可再生能源电力的发展不仅促进了区域的减排，也有助于周边区域的碳排放减少，呈现出显著的空间溢出效应。成本效益估算表明，2003年至2021年间，中国可再生能源发电与化石燃料发电相比，每年可实现近2038.2万吨的减排。这相当于同期电力部门减少约6.75%的碳排放，估计每年减少价值约为102797万美元。福利分析表明，随着可再生能源发电比重的提高，2003年至2021年，CS和SW增长迅速。本研究结果为发展中国家通过发展可再生能源促进大规模碳减排和社会经济可持续发展提供了强有力的实证支持。

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引用次数: 0

Multi-agent collaboration-driven energy structure transition: A quadripartite evolutionary game analysis framework integrating carbon, electricity, and green certificate markets 多主体协作驱动的能源结构转型：碳、电力和绿色证书市场的四方演化博弈分析框架

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109112

Yue Wang, Bangjun Wang, Linyu Cui

To reveal the dynamic process of multi-agent collaborative energy transition under the coupling of electricity, carbon, and green certificate markets, this study constructs a four-party evolutionary game model involving the government (G), coal power enterprises (CPEs), green power enterprises (GPEs), and power grids (PGs). This model is based on a policy-market-agent three-dimensional collaborative analysis framework and the equilibrium strategies of each agent is analyzed. Subsequently, based on the full life-cycle theory, the study explores four periods of system development: the market emergence, policy initiation, synergistic development, and market-driven periods, analyzing the policy focus and market behavior at each period. Finally, numerical simulations are employed to discuss the impact of initial strategy probabilities on system evolution, and sensitivity analysis is conducted across four levels: policy, market, technology, and society. Research findings include: (1) System evolution follows a developmental trajectory from policy-driven initiation to market-driven autonomy, with carbon price and technology costs serving as key parameters influencing this process; (2) Policy instruments can compensate for market incentive gaps in the early transition phase, but precautions must be taken against their potential crowding-out effects on specific market segments; In the mid-to-late stages, policy interventions should gradually yield to market mechanisms; (3) RPS, CET, and TGC exhibit synergistic complementarity, with TGC primarily incentivizing GPEs, while CET and RPS jointly drive the low-carbon transition of CPEs; (4) Regulators should balance oversight costs against performance gains, dynamically adjusting policy intensity and subsidy phase-out schedules. This research offers new insights into stakeholder behavior under policy coordination and market coupling, providing quantitative decision-making support for achieving a smooth transition between effective governments and efficient markets.

为了揭示电力、碳和绿色证书市场耦合下多主体协同能源转型的动态过程，本研究构建了政府(G)、煤电企业（cpe）、绿色电力企业（gpe）和电网（pg）的四方演化博弈模型。该模型基于政策-市场-代理人三维协同分析框架，分析了各代理人的均衡策略。随后，基于全生命周期理论，探讨了制度发展的四个阶段：市场出现期、政策启动期、协同发展期和市场驱动期，分析了每个阶段的政策重点和市场行为。最后，采用数值模拟方法讨论了初始策略概率对系统演化的影响，并在政策、市场、技术和社会四个层面进行了敏感性分析。研究发现：(1)系统演化遵循从政策驱动启动到市场驱动自主的发展轨迹，碳价格和技术成本是影响这一过程的关键参数；(2)政策工具可以弥补转型初期的市场激励缺口，但必须防范其对特定细分市场的潜在挤出效应；在中后期，政策干预应逐渐让位于市场机制；(3) RPS、CET和TGC表现出协同互补，TGC主要激励gpe， CET和RPS共同推动gpe的低碳转型；(4)监管机构应平衡监管成本与绩效收益，动态调整政策强度和补贴淘汰时间表。本研究为政策协调和市场耦合下的利益相关者行为提供了新的视角，为实现有效政府与有效市场之间的平稳过渡提供了量化决策支持。

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引用次数: 0

Nowcasting Italian industrial production: The predictive role of lubricant oils 临近铸造意大利工业生产：润滑油的预测作用

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109108

Marco Fruzzetti , Tiziano Ropele

We investigate the predictive power of industrial lubricant oils for nowcasting the month-on-month growth rate of the Italian industrial production, using a set of advanced econometric models and various robustness checks. Our analysis shows that the inclusion of industrial lubricant oil data significantly improves the nowcast accuracy and outperforms models that exclude them in the post-pandemic period characterized by increased economic volatility, energy market disruptions and evolving structural dynamics. These findings suggest that industrial lubricant oils may serve as a more reliable economic indicator than other commonly used energy-related predictors, such as industrial gas consumption. As such, industrial lubricants represent a promising economic indicator for improving the accuracy of nowcasts of industrial activity, also in the context of structural changes, including the ongoing green transition.

我们使用一套先进的计量经济模型和各种鲁棒性检查，研究了工业润滑油对意大利工业生产月环比增长率的预测能力。我们的分析表明，在以经济波动加剧、能源市场中断和结构动态演变为特征的大流行后时期，纳入工业润滑油数据显著提高了临近预测的准确性，优于不纳入工业润滑油数据的模型。这些发现表明，与其他常用的能源相关预测指标（如工业气体消耗量）相比，工业润滑油可能是一个更可靠的经济指标。因此，工业润滑油代表了一个有希望的经济指标，可以提高工业活动临近预测的准确性，在结构变化的背景下也是如此，包括正在进行的绿色转型。

引用次数: 0

Does green finance ensure energy security while achieving low-carbon transformation of listed electricity firms? Evidence from China 绿色金融在确保能源安全的同时实现上市电力企业的低碳转型吗？来自中国的证据

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109092

Jin Wang , Bin Ye , Zhaoxuan He , Hongjiang Pu , Bin Su , Yaqi Lu

The power sector is central to achieving the climate goals of the United Nations Sustainable Development Agenda, as it faces the dual challenge of advancing a low-carbon transition while ensuring energy security. This paper examines the critical role of green finance in addressing energy security and achieving low-carbon transformation in China's electricity market. Using a novel regional low-carbon energy security index, we empirically investigate the impact of green finance pilot policies at both regional and firm levels from 2010 to 2023. The results indicate an increase in low-carbon energy security and a decline in carbon emissions from electricity firms over the sample period. At the regional level, green finance policies demonstrate significant effectiveness in high-energy-consumption areas and regions prone to natural disasters. However, the overall impact of the green finance pilot policies on low-carbon energy security is not statistically significant. At the firm level, green finance policies are associated with a statistically significant reduction in firms' estimated carbon emissions, particularly those arising from fossil fuel combustion and solid waste incineration. This effect is especially pronounced in state-owned firms with high ownership concentration, advanced innovation capacity, and strong digitization. Mechanism analysis from a corporate finance perspective suggests that institutional investor ownership, equity balance, and management ownership serve as moderating factors. In summary, this study provides valuable insights into the strategic role of green finance in balancing energy security with the imperative of low-carbon development in China's power sector.

电力部门是实现联合国可持续发展议程气候目标的核心，因为它面临着推进低碳转型和确保能源安全的双重挑战。本文探讨了绿色金融在解决中国电力市场能源安全和实现低碳转型中的关键作用。本文采用一种新的区域低碳能源安全指数，对2010 - 2023年绿色金融试点政策在区域和企业层面的影响进行实证研究。结果表明，在样本期内，低碳能源安全性有所提高，电力公司的碳排放量有所下降。在区域层面，绿色金融政策在高能耗地区和自然灾害多发地区显示出显著的有效性。然而，绿色金融试点政策对低碳能源安全的总体影响在统计上并不显著。在企业层面，绿色金融政策与企业估计碳排放的统计显著减少有关，特别是来自化石燃料燃烧和固体废物焚烧的碳排放。这种效应在股权集中度高、创新能力强、数字化程度高的国有企业中表现得尤为明显。从公司财务角度进行的机制分析表明，机构投资者所有权、股权平衡和管理层所有权是调节因素。总之，本研究为绿色金融在平衡能源安全与中国电力行业低碳发展的必要性方面的战略作用提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Measuring energy resilience via risk absorption: High-frequency evidence from China 通过风险吸收衡量能量弹性：来自中国的高频证据

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109117

Liangpeng Wu , Xinlei Feng , Xiaoyong Zhou , Qingyuan Zhu , Dequn Zhou

Energy markets face intensifying shocks, making a real-time measure of energy resilience essential. Conventional low-frequency metrics miss short-run dynamics and the risk-absorption capacity of the energy system. This study proposes a methodological framework to assess energy resilience through risk-absorption by (i) integrating mixed-frequency indicators into an energy system index (ESI) via a dynamic factor model, (ii) proxying systemic financial stress with marginal expected shortfall, and (iii) tracing the ESI's impulse response to risk shocks using a time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility. This approach captures high-frequency dynamics, accommodates evolving transmission mechanisms, and yields two interpretable risk-absorption measures: energy resilience intensity (ERi) and energy resilience duration (ERd). For China during 2009–2022, the results show that energy resilience stabilized overall and was shaped mainly by risks stemming from external financing dependence (international financial markets) and capital-price transmission (stock markets). ERd and ERi display a clear dual-regime pattern, with both regimes exhibiting strong self-sustaining persistence. Four pronounced fluctuations—2010–2011, 2014–2015, 2017–2018, and 2020–2022—correspond to surges in geopolitical risk (GPR), trade policy uncertainty (TPU), and climate risks. Empirically, TPU exerts a dual effect on energy resilience by shortening ERd while reducing ERi, whereas geopolitical and climate risks mainly prolong recovery processes (increasing ERd) without significantly weakening systemic stability (ERi). In addition, domestic emergencies such as campaign-based decarbonization also exert an impact on ERd. This study provides a dynamic, high-frequency measurement framework and clarifies the differential roles of geopolitical, trade, and climate risks in shaping energy resilience across risk-absorption intensity and duration.

能源市场面临着日益加剧的冲击，因此实时衡量能源弹性至关重要。传统的低频指标忽略了能源系统的短期动态和风险吸收能力。本研究提出了一个方法框架，通过风险吸收来评估能源弹性，方法包括：(i)通过动态因子模型将混合频率指标整合到能源系统指数（ESI）中，（ii）用边际预期不足来代理系统性金融压力，以及（iii）使用具有随机波动率的时变参数VAR来跟踪ESI对风险冲击的脉冲响应。该方法捕捉高频动态，适应不断变化的传递机制，并产生两种可解释的风险吸收指标：能量恢复强度（ERi）和能量恢复持续时间（ERd）。2009-2022年，中国能源弹性总体趋于稳定，主要受外部融资依赖（国际金融市场）和资本价格传导（股票市场）风险的影响。ERd和ERi表现出明显的双体制模式，两种体制都表现出很强的自我维持持久性。2010 - 2011年、2014-2015年、2017-2018年和2020 - 2022年四次显著波动对应于地缘政治风险（GPR）、贸易政策不确定性（TPU）和气候风险的激增。经验表明，TPU通过缩短ERd和降低ERi对能源弹性产生双重影响，而地缘政治和气候风险主要是延长恢复过程（增加ERd），而不会显著削弱系统稳定性（ERi）。此外，国内紧急情况，如以运动为基础的脱碳也对ERd产生影响。本研究提供了一个动态的高频测量框架，并阐明了地缘政治、贸易和气候风险在影响能源弹性的风险吸收强度和持续时间中的不同作用。

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引用次数: 0

Decomposing return and volatility connectedness in Northwest European natural gas markets: Evidence from the R2 connectedness approach 西北欧天然气市场回报率和波动性的关联分析：来自r2关联方法的证据

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109115

Markos Farag , Oliver Ruhnau

Regulatory reforms by the European Commission have facilitated the integration of European natural gas markets, thereby increasing their mutual interdependence in terms of prices and associated risks. Recent external shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have disrupted market interconnectedness, as documented in the literature. However, the nature of shock transmission, whether contemporaneous or delayed, during periods of market instability, the subsequent speed of recovery in price and volatility connectedness, and the potential differences between spot and futures prices have not yet been investigated. This paper addresses these issues in two steps. First, it quantifies the dynamics of return and volatility connectedness among Northwest European gas hubs using the

R^{2}

decomposition connectedness method. Second, it explains these dynamics by linking fluctuations in connectedness to physical, policy, and macroeconomic factors using a regression-based framework. Our findings show that contemporaneous spillovers dominate lagged spillovers, even during external shocks, indicating rapid market adjustments. Moreover, while market connectedness declined significantly during major disruptions, it promptly returned to pre-crisis levels once these disruptions subsided. Futures markets showed higher connectedness than spot markets during tight conditions, suggesting greater alignment with broader market expectations and reduced susceptibility to physical constraints. Furthermore, regression analysis indicates that return and volatility connectedness decline significantly when certain pipelines are congested, whereas congestion on other links has no clear effect.

欧洲委员会的管制改革促进了欧洲天然气市场的一体化，从而增加了它们在价格和相关风险方面的相互依存关系。正如文献所记载的那样，最近的外部冲击，包括COVID-19大流行和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，已经破坏了市场的互联性。然而，在市场不稳定时期，冲击传导的性质（无论是同步的还是延迟的）、随后的价格恢复速度和波动性连通性，以及现货和期货价格之间的潜在差异尚未得到调查。本文分两个步骤解决这些问题。首先，利用R2分解连通性方法量化了西北欧天然气枢纽的收益和波动连通性动态。其次，它通过使用基于回归的框架将连通性的波动与物理、政策和宏观经济因素联系起来，解释了这些动态。我们的研究结果表明，即使在外部冲击期间，同期溢出效应主导滞后溢出效应，表明市场调整迅速。此外，虽然市场连通性在重大中断期间显著下降，但一旦这些中断消退，它就会迅速恢复到危机前的水平。在紧张形势下，期货市场比现货市场表现出更高的连通性，这表明期货市场与更广泛的市场预期更加一致，对实物约束的敏感性降低。此外，回归分析表明，当某些管道阻塞时，回报率和波动率连通性显著下降，而其他链路阻塞则没有明显影响。

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引用次数: 0