Energy Economics最新文献_第7页

Government backed credit guarantee schemes for offtaker counterparty risk under corporate power purchase agreements 政府为企业购电协议下的收购对手方风险提供信用担保计划

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109166

Johann Schütt , Fabian Kächele

In this study we develop a formal model that explicitly considers the cash flows of an intermittent renewable electricity producing asset backed by a corporate PPA to establish a link between the default probability of the offtaker and the PPA price needed to reach the required return on equity. In this regard, we expand the classical LCOE framework to incorporate offtaker-related credit risk. We find that offtaker defaults have a substantial impact on the PPA price and hence the LCOE of the project depending on the survival function of the offtaker. Furthermore, we propose a lean credit enhancement scheme targeting offtaker defaults based on five core principles of government involvement in infrastructure projects and credit guarantees as well as incorporate the scheme in our formal model. We compare the costs of the credit guarantee scheme with the cost of traditional support measures and find that the government may provide revenue support to renewable energy projects at a lower cost compared to CfDs. In a case study for Germany, we quantify the effect of offtaker defaults on the PPA price. For non-investment grade offtakers, the required PPA price is from 7.83 € per MWh (or 11%) up to 40.87 € per MWh (or 56%) higher than the default free price. In the case study, expected support costs for the guarantee scheme are approximately half the support costs of a comparable CfD scheme.

在本研究中，我们开发了一个正式的模型，该模型明确考虑了由企业PPA支持的间歇性可再生电力生产资产的现金流，以建立承购方违约概率与达到所需股本回报率所需的PPA价格之间的联系。在这方面，我们扩展了经典的LCOE框架，以纳入与承购方相关的信用风险。我们发现，承购方违约对PPA价格有重大影响，因此项目的LCOE取决于承购方的生存函数。此外，我们根据政府参与基础设施项目和信用担保的五项核心原则，提出了针对承购方违约的精益信用增强计划，并将该计划纳入我们的正式模型。我们将信用担保计划的成本与传统支持措施的成本进行比较，发现政府可能以比差价合约更低的成本为可再生能源项目提供收入支持。在德国的案例研究中，我们量化了承购方违约对购电协议价格的影响。对于非投资级收购方，所需的PPA价格为每兆瓦时7.83欧元（或11%）至每兆瓦时40.87欧元（或56%），高于违约免费价格。在案例研究中，担保方案的预期支持成本约为可比差价合约方案支持成本的一半。

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引用次数: 0

Environmental policy and strategic abatement under scale economies 规模经济下的环境政策与战略减排

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109170

Carmen Arguedas , Yu Pang

This paper analyzes strategic interactions among polluting firms in a monopolistically competitive market with scale economies and explores the design of optimal environmental regulation. Extending the Dixit–Stiglitz–Krugman model, we introduce two key features. First, firms generate pollution through production and can invest in abatement. Second, firms act strategically, as each firm’s choices influence the decisions and profits of others. Our model obtains theoretical predictions that better align with empirical evidence: (i) markups decline with intensified competition, (ii) the relationship between fixed costs and firm-level pollution is hump-shaped, and (iii) while emissions taxes stimulate firm entry, intensity standards have no impact on entry or exit. Our simulations show that abatement is socially desirable under empirically plausible configurations, yet neither policy instrument can reach the first best outcome. Contrary to the traditional view, the second-best standard provides greater welfare and environmental benefits than the second-best tax, revealing its superiority in the presence of strategic firm behavior and scale economies.

本文分析了具有规模经济的垄断竞争市场中污染企业之间的战略互动，探讨了最优环境规制的设计。扩展Dixit-Stiglitz-Krugman模型，引入两个关键特征。首先，企业通过生产产生污染，可以投资于减排。其次，企业采取战略行动，因为每个企业的选择都会影响其他企业的决策和利润。我们的模型得到了与经验证据更一致的理论预测：(1)加成率随着竞争的加剧而下降；(2)固定成本与企业层面污染之间的关系呈驼峰状；(3)虽然排放税刺激企业进入，但强度标准对进入或退出没有影响。我们的模拟表明，在经验上合理的配置下，减排是社会期望的，但两种政策工具都无法达到最佳结果。与传统观点相反，次优标准比次优税收提供了更大的福利和环境效益，揭示了其在战略企业行为和规模经济存在下的优越性。

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引用次数: 0

Carbon asset pledge financing under allowance allocation mechanisms: Strategies for capital-constrained manufacturers 配额分配机制下的碳资产质押融资：资金紧张制造商的策略

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109156

Cong Liu , Xiqiang Xia , Yarong Hou

Under carbon trading policies, research and development (R&D) in carbon emission reduction (CER) technologies has become a key strategy for manufacturing industries to mitigate carbon compliance costs. However, limited attention has been given to how specific carbon allowance allocation methods interact with capital constraints in supply chains. To address this gap, this paper develops a carbon-emission-dependent supply chain model that incorporates two allocation mechanisms, namely the grandfathering system and the benchmarking system, involving a capital-constrained manufacturer and a retailer. Based on the manufacturer's initial capital and carbon allowance endowment, three financing scenarios are examined: no financing, pure carbon asset pledge financing (PCAPF), and hybrid carbon asset pledge financing (HCAPF). The results show that: 1) The threshold for adopting the no-financing strategy is lower under the grandfathering system, while the PCAPF thresholds in both systems depend on the total carbon allowance. 2) From a profitability perspective, the retailer's profit is higher under the benchmarking system, whereas the manufacturer achieves higher profit under the grandfathering system when the total allowance is relatively abundant. 3) From an environmental perspective, the benchmarking system imposes stricter constraints and induces higher CER efforts, but when the R&D cost coefficient exceeds a certain threshold, the environmental impact under benchmarking surpasses that under grandfathering. 4) Under both systems, the no-financing scenario achieves the highest CER efforts, product output, and retailer's profit, while excessive reliance on HCAPF weakens all three.

在碳交易政策下，碳减排技术的研发已成为制造业降低碳合规成本的关键策略。然而，很少有人关注具体的碳配额分配方法如何与供应链中的资本约束相互作用。为了解决这一差距，本文建立了一个碳排放依赖的供应链模型，该模型包含两种分配机制，即祖父制度和基准制度，涉及资本受限的制造商和零售商。基于制造商的初始资金和碳配额禀赋，考察了三种融资方案：不融资、纯碳资产质押融资（PCAPF）和混合碳资产质押融资（HCAPF）。结果表明：1)祖父制度下企业采取不融资策略的门槛较低，而两种制度下的PCAPF门槛均取决于碳排放总量。2)从盈利能力的角度来看，在标杆制度下零售商的利润更高，而在津贴总额相对充裕的祖父制下制造商的利润更高。3)从环境角度看，对标制度对环境的约束更严格，对标制度对环境的影响更大，但当研发成本系数超过一定阈值时，对标制度对环境的影响大于祖父制制度。4)在两种制度下，无融资情景的CER努力、产品产出和零售商利润最高，而过度依赖HCAPF会削弱这三者。

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引用次数: 0

Identifying and understanding disruptive energy technologies: A data-driven integrated approach 识别和理解颠覆性能源技术：数据驱动的综合方法

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109178

Jie Dong, Chen Yang, Hongyan Zhang, Peng Zhou

Identifying disruptive technologies early is essential not only to stay at the forefront of technological development but also to prepare preemptively for its disruptive effects. This study proposes an integrated approach for identifying disruptive energy technologies based on the connotation and characteristics of disruptive technologies in general. The research approach includes a patent analysis, text mining, and expert surveys; the outcome is a comprehensive framework that integrates multiple data sources, such as patent data, governmental policy reports, news texts, and expert surveys. The study focuses on five key energy sectors to identify the general and domain-based potentially disruptive technologies; the sectors include nuclear energy, wind energy, solar energy, energy storage and hydrogen energy. The robustness of this framework is assessed by comparing it against empirical evidence of technology influence and the support received. This goal is to offer practical insights for predicting and directing technology investment and deployment, and shaping technology-driven policies in the clean energy sector.

及早发现颠覆性技术不仅对保持技术发展的前沿地位至关重要，而且对其颠覆性影响也能提前做好准备。本文从颠覆性能源技术的内涵和特征出发，提出了一种识别颠覆性能源技术的综合方法。研究方法包括专利分析、文本挖掘和专家调查；结果是一个综合的框架，它集成了多个数据源，如专利数据、政府政策报告、新闻文本和专家调查。该研究侧重于五个关键能源部门，以确定通用和基于领域的潜在颠覆性技术；这些领域包括核能、风能、太阳能、储能和氢能。通过将该框架与技术影响的经验证据和获得的支持进行比较，评估该框架的稳健性。其目标是为预测和指导技术投资和部署，以及制定清洁能源领域的技术驱动政策提供实用见解。

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引用次数: 0

Reciprocity between customer digitalisation and suppliers' green capabilities: Evidence from suppliers' green innovation performance 客户数字化与供应商绿色能力之间的互惠关系：来自供应商绿色创新绩效的证据

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109192

Huaijin Qi , Yanxia Liu , Le Chen , Xinge Zhou

Customer digitalisation has emerged as a pivotal factor shaping reciprocal relationships between suppliers and customers in today's rapidly evolving business landscape. This study finds that customer digitalisation can encourage reciprocity between customer digitalisation and suppliers' green capabilities. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in customer digitalisation leads to a 23.9% surge in suppliers' green innovation performance (GIP), along with a 37.7% surge in invention-type GIP, compared with the average. Customer digitalisation promotes suppliers' GIP by reducing information asymmetry in suppliers' green innovation processes as well as enabling the transfer of environmental costs from customers to suppliers. Enhanced suppliers' GIP in turn improves customers' future profitability and strengthens the stability of the supplier–customer relationship. This reciprocal relationship requires a foundation of long-term cooperation, enabling suppliers to pursue high-quality green innovation and steadily develop green capabilities.

在当今快速发展的商业环境中，客户数字化已成为塑造供应商和客户之间互惠关系的关键因素。本研究发现，客户数字化可以促进客户数字化与供应商绿色能力之间的互惠关系。具体而言，与平均水平相比，客户数字化每增加一个标准差，供应商的绿色创新绩效（GIP）就会激增23.9%，发明型GIP也会激增37.7%。通过减少供应商绿色创新过程中的信息不对称，以及使环境成本从客户转移到供应商，客户数字化促进了供应商的GIP。供应商GIP的提高反过来又提高了客户未来的盈利能力，并加强了供应商-客户关系的稳定性。这种互惠关系需要长期合作的基础，使供应商能够追求高质量的绿色创新，稳步发展绿色能力。

引用次数: 0

When lenders go green, do borrowers follow? Evidence from the response of corporate green innovation to bank's sustainability commitments 当放款人环保时，借款者会跟进吗？来自企业绿色创新对银行可持续发展承诺的反应的证据

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109212

Ning Hu , Yi Lu , Lifang Xu

Using a sample of A-share listed companies in China from 2014 to 2023, this paper studies how corporate green innovation changes when firms experience an exogenous shock from their lending banks signing sustainable banking principles between 2017 and 2021. We employ the staggered difference-in-difference approach to explore the impact of this new sustainability commitment on corporate green innovation. We find that firms significantly increase their green innovation after their lending banks become “green banks”, and the innovation translates into real environmental performance. The response is more pronounced in more financially constrained firms, in lower-technology firms, in firms with weaker corporate environmental management, and in firms facing less stringent government environmental regulation. Additionally, the effect intensifies with greater bank monitoring capacity. These findings contribute to our understanding of bank monitoring mechanisms, sustainable finance development, and the drivers of corporate environmental practices.

本文以2014 - 2023年中国a股上市公司为样本，研究了2017 - 2021年贷款银行签署可持续银行原则所带来的外生冲击对企业绿色创新的影响。我们采用交错差分法来探讨这种新的可持续发展承诺对企业绿色创新的影响。我们发现，在贷款银行成为“绿色银行”后，企业的绿色创新显著增加，创新转化为实际的环境绩效。这种反应在财政拮据的公司、技术水平较低的公司、公司环境管理较弱的公司和面临不太严格的政府环境监管的公司中更为明显。此外，随着银行监测能力的增强，这种影响也会加剧。这些发现有助于我们理解银行监测机制、可持续金融发展和企业环境实践的驱动因素。

引用次数: 0

Investigating nuclear energy viability in Texas with decision making model GenX 利用GenX决策模型调查德克萨斯州核能可行性

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109224

Ivy Seidel , Joshua D. Rhodes , Michael E. Webber , Kevin Clarno , Derek Haas

As the population grows and AI datacenters look to expand, Texas is in search of reliable and economical power to fill the increased demand the state is facing. This study assesses the economic viability of nuclear energy within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) using the GenX capacity expansion model. Utilizing a simplified ERCOT grid developed by the Webber Energy Group at UT Austin, this research simulates various deployment scenarios to determine cost thresholds at which nuclear power becomes competitive with wind, solar, battery storage, coal, and natural gas. Simulations for projected 2025 and 2030 demand scenarios reveal that nuclear energy is economically viable at a capital expenditure (CAPEX) of approximately $4700 per kW, an upfront cost 38% below the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) 2030 moderate estimate of $7616 per kW. This assumes that the full 50% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) is applied in the model as a direct capital cost reduction. Modeling also shows that if natural gas CAPEX nearly doubles or if gas fuel costs rise by 235%, nuclear becomes the preferred alternative. When both natural gas capital and fuel costs increase, nuclear clearly emerges as a cost-effective and competitive alternative. These findings suggest that nuclear power, while currently not cost-competitive, is an important part of the fuel mix that Texas will need in 2030 as electricity demand increases. State and federal policies such as the ITC and grants are recommended to continue in order to ease nuclear power through the heightened costs of first-of-a-kind construction.

随着人口的增长和人工智能数据中心的扩张，德克萨斯州正在寻找可靠和经济的电力来满足该州面临的日益增长的需求。本研究使用GenX容量扩展模型评估了德克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会（ERCOT）内核能的经济可行性。利用德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校韦伯能源集团开发的简化ERCOT电网，这项研究模拟了各种部署方案，以确定核电与风能、太阳能、电池储能、煤炭和天然气竞争的成本阈值。预测2025年和2030年需求情景的模拟显示，核能在资本支出（CAPEX）约为每千瓦4700美元的情况下是经济可行的，前期成本比国家可再生能源实验室（NREL） 2030年每千瓦7616美元的适度估计低38%。这是假设在模型中应用50%的投资税收抵免（ITC）作为直接资本成本降低。模型还显示，如果天然气资本支出几乎翻倍，或者天然气燃料成本上升235%，核能将成为首选选择。当天然气资本和燃料成本双双上升时，核能显然成为一种具有成本效益和竞争力的替代方案。这些发现表明，核能虽然目前没有成本竞争力，但随着2030年电力需求的增加，它将是德克萨斯州燃料组合的重要组成部分。建议继续实施州和联邦政策，如ITC和拨款，以便通过首次建设的成本增加来缓解核电。

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引用次数: 0

Growth dynamics and sustainability of BRICS economies under climate uncertainty 气候不确定性下金砖国家经济增长动态和可持续性

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109179

Ameet Kumar Banerjee , Sabri Boubaker , Molla Ramizur Rahman

This study examines the growth of BRICS economies under climate uncertainty within an interconnected setting. Using quarterly data from the first quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2023, we construct a climate-uncertainty-adjusted GDP growth (CUG) index to assess the role of the Paris Agreement in sustainable growth. We evaluate each economy's tolerance to climate uncertainty in sustaining growth and employ a commonality framework to disentangle shared and country-specific contributions to sustainable growth. The empirical findings reveal an enhanced CUG during the post-Paris Agreement, underscoring the Agreement's role in advancing sustainable growth. Furthermore, the network diagnostics provide evidence of strengthened economic performance conditional on climate uncertainty, thereby highlighting the Agreement's efficacy in mitigating the adverse effects of climate-related risks. These findings help policymakers judge whether BRICS economies advance toward climate-aligned growth consistent with treaty goals and inform stakeholders about the implications of climate mandates for economic objectives.

本研究考察了金砖国家经济在相互关联的环境中气候不确定性下的增长。利用2011年第一季度至2023年第三季度的季度数据，我们构建了一个经气候不确定性调整的GDP增长（CUG）指数，以评估《巴黎协定》对可持续增长的作用。我们评估了每个经济体在可持续增长中对气候不确定性的容忍度，并采用一个共同框架来区分各国对可持续增长的共同贡献和具体贡献。实证研究结果显示，在《巴黎协定》之后，中国政府间的共同利益得到增强，凸显了《巴黎协定》在促进可持续增长方面的作用。此外，网络诊断提供了以气候不确定性为条件的经济绩效增强的证据，从而突出了《巴黎协定》在减轻气候相关风险不利影响方面的有效性。这些发现有助于决策者判断金砖国家经济是否朝着符合条约目标的气候相关增长方向前进，并告知利益相关者气候任务对经济目标的影响。

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引用次数: 0

The effect of demand uncertainty on the optimal capacity mix of a wholesale electricity market 需求不确定性对电力批发市场最优容量组合的影响

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109165

Irena Milstein , Asher Tishler , Chi-Keung Woo

Two-stage models have been the main tools to derive the optimal capacity mix of a wholesale electricity market. In the first stage, independent power producers (IPPs) maximize the expected profits of their capacity investments in generation technologies like photovoltaic (PV) systems and combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs). In the second stage, interactions among IPPs result in the market's short-run equilibrium prices and output levels for the first stage's determination of the market's long-run optimal capacity mix. However, solving such models necessitates simplifying assumptions about the market's structure that has become more detailed and complex. This study assesses the effect of demand uncertainty on the market's optimal capacity mix by comparing the solutions based on stochastic demand functions to those based on deterministic demand functions. While demand uncertainty can impact the market's optimal capacity mix, we use real-world data to document that its effect is numerically negligible. Hence, deterministic modelling, which is much easier to implement than stochastic modelling, can provide a good approximation to the optimal capacity mix when assessing future electricity market scenarios. This finding's policy implication is that demand uncertainty is a less important driver of a wholesale electricity market's capacity mix than other drivers like capacity and fuel costs.

两阶段模型一直是推导批发电力市场最优容量组合的主要工具。在第一阶段，独立电力生产商（ipp）将其在光伏（PV）系统和联合循环燃气轮机（ccgt）等发电技术上的产能投资的预期利润最大化。在第二阶段，ipp之间的相互作用导致市场的短期均衡价格和产出水平，为第一阶段确定市场的长期最优产能组合。然而，解决这些模型需要简化对市场结构的假设，而市场结构已经变得更加详细和复杂。本文通过比较基于随机需求函数和基于确定性需求函数的解决方案，评估了需求不确定性对市场最优容量组合的影响。虽然需求不确定性会影响市场的最佳产能组合，但我们使用实际数据证明其影响在数字上可以忽略不计。因此，确定性模型比随机模型更容易实现，可以在评估未来电力市场情景时提供最佳容量组合的良好近似值。这一发现的政策含义是，与容量和燃料成本等其他驱动因素相比，需求不确定性对批发电力市场容量组合的影响较小。

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引用次数: 0

Five stylized facts on ownership, specialization, and investment in global power assets 关于全球电力资产所有权、专业化和投资的五个程式化事实

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109193

Anton Pichler

We establish five empirical facts about corporate ownership, technological specialization, and investment behavior in the global power sector, analyzing more than 150,000 generation assets owned by approximately 24,000 firms worldwide (2001–2024). Power asset ownership is extraordinarily concentrated, with 80% of global capacity held by just 3% of firms. Firms exhibit extreme technological specialization: approximately 80% own only a single technology, and even diversified firms concentrate more than 70% of capacity in one technology. Investment dynamics are highly persistent and path-dependent, with less than 10% of firms investing in any given year and past behavior strongly predicting future technology choices. Corporate energy transitions are exceedingly rare. Less than 4% of fossil fuel-dominated firms have transitioned to renewable-majority portfolios, and full divestment from fossils remains exceptional. Transitioning firms follow idiosyncratic pathways with no characteristic technology trajectories. These findings highlight fundamental challenges for climate policies that assume responsive corporate investment behavior and underscore the dominance of path dependency in firm-level technology adoption.

我们建立了关于全球电力行业企业所有权、技术专业化和投资行为的五个实证事实，分析了全球约24,000家公司拥有的超过150,000个发电资产（2001-2024）。电力资产的所有权异常集中，全球80%的产能掌握在3%的公司手中。企业表现出极端的技术专业化：大约80%的企业只拥有一项技术，甚至多元化的企业也将70%以上的产能集中在一项技术上。投资动态是高度持续性和路径依赖性的，在任何给定的年份，只有不到10%的公司进行投资，而过去的行为可以强烈预测未来的技术选择。企业能源转型极为罕见。在以化石燃料为主的公司中，只有不到4%的公司已经转型为以可再生能源为主的投资组合，完全从化石燃料中撤资仍然是例外。转型企业遵循的是没有特征技术轨迹的特殊路径。这些发现突出了气候政策面临的根本性挑战，这些政策假设了响应性企业投资行为，并强调了路径依赖在企业层面技术采用中的主导地位。

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引用次数: 0