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The potential impact of environmental goods trade liberalization on trade and emissions
IF 12.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108051
Marc Bacchetta, Eddy Bekkers, Jean-Marc Solleder, Enxhi Tresa
We combine econometric estimation with quantitative modeling to generate projections on the trade, GDP, and emissions effects of a potential trade liberalization agreement involving energy-related environmental goods (EREGs) and environmentally preferable products (EPPs). Trade liberalization can contribute to reduced emissions in two ways in our projections: (i) a reduction of import prices of goods promoting energy efficiency; and (ii) a reduction in the costs of intermediate and capital goods used in the production of electricity from renewable-energy sources. Four scenarios are evaluated, combining reductions in tariffs and non-tariff measures (NTMs) for EREGs and EPPs. Using simulations with the WTO Global Trade Model we find (i) an increase in exports of EREGs and EPPs both at the global level and in most regions; (ii) a modest increase in GDP in all regions because of falling tariffs, NTMs, and increased energy efficiency; and (iii) a modest reduction in global emissions of about 0.6%. The dominant channel is energy efficiency, whereas the costs of EREGs as intermediates in renewable energy production play a minor role, with or without end-use control.
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引用次数: 0
The resilience dynamics of energy ETF accessibility and stock market sentiment in China during the post-pandemic era
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108060
Hua-Tang Yin , Jun Wen , Hongming Yang , Yushuang He , Chun-Ping Chang
This paper investigates the dynamic interaction between energy ETF accessibility and stock market sentiment through the lens of resilience during the post COVID-19 pandemic period. We find that they tend to positively co-move in the long run. Adverse exogenous shocks on one of them not only have a persistent impact on itself but also cause non-diminish damage to the other. Compared to stock market sentiment resilience, energy ETF accessibility resilience is more constrained by the long-run co-movement. The co-movement is not significantly reshaped by possible structural time-breaks or Markovian regime shifts. Further exploration based on wavelet coherence analysis provides evidence for a stable and even gradually strengthening positive coherence between the two types of resilience in a volatile environment. Accordingly, our findings can offer valuable insights for financial regulators to achieve their designed objectives in the secondary markets of energy and stocks.
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引用次数: 0
Transmission benefits and cost allocation under ambiguity
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108054
Han Shu , Jacob Mays
Disputes over cost allocation can present a significant barrier to investment in shared infrastructure. While it may be desirable to allocate cost in a way that corresponds to expected benefits, investments in long-lived projects are made under conditions of substantial uncertainty. In the context of electricity transmission, uncertainty combined with the inherent complexity of power systems analysis prevents the calculation of an estimated distribution of benefits that is agreeable to all participants. To analyze aspects of the cost allocation problem, we construct a model for transmission and generation expansion planning under uncertainty, enabling the identification of transmission investments as well as the calculation of benefits for users of the network. Numerical tests confirm the potential for realized benefits at the participant level to differ significantly from ex ante estimates. Based on the model and numerical tests we discuss several issues, including (1) establishing a valid counterfactual against which to measure benefits, (2) allocating cost to new and incumbent generators vs. solely allocating to loads, (3) calculating benefits at the portfolio vs. the individual project level, (4) identifying losers in a surplus-enhancing transmission expansion, and (5) quantifying the divergence between cost allocation decisions made ex ante and benefits realized ex post.
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引用次数: 0
The dynamics of green energy, energy efficiency, economic productivity, and energy-driven emissions in SDG context: Is there a synergistic interplay? 可持续发展目标背景下的绿色能源、能源效率、经济生产力和能源驱动的排放的动态变化:是否存在协同作用?
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108063
Dagmawe Tenaw
This study aims to examine the combined effects of green energy (Sustainable Development Goal, SDG-7.2), energy efficiency (SDG-7.3), and economic productivity (SDG-8.2) in mitigating energy-driven GHG emissions. The novelty of this study is that it extends the Kaya identity to mathematically explain how the two SDG-7 goals affect energy-driven emissions, and it provides global empirical evidence from 161 countries between1995 and 2019. The study also includes two-way and three-way interactions to better understand the complex interplay between the above SDG goals. Dynamic Common Correlated effects-instrumental variable estimation and Method of Moments-Quantile regression models were employed for the empirical investigation. The main findings confirm that green energy and energy efficiency significantly contribute to reducing energy-related emissions in all regions (except Asia in the case of green energy). The effects of green energy (energy efficiency) tend to slightly decrease (increase) as emissions levels rise. Economic productivity appears to trigger emissions, with the impact being stronger in low-productive regions. We also found a synergistic interplay between the two SDG-7 targets in mitigating energy-related emissions and weakening the emission-triggering effect of SDG-8.2 across different quantiles of emissions. Overall, maximizing the synergy between SDG-7 and 8 can substantially cut energy-driven emissions.
本研究旨在考察绿色能源(可持续发展目标,SDG-7.2)、能源效率(SDG-7.3)和经济生产力(SDG-8.2)在减少能源驱动的温室气体排放方面的综合效应。本研究的新颖之处在于,它扩展了 Kaya 特性,从数学角度解释了 SDG-7 的两个目标如何影响能源驱动的排放,并提供了 1995 年至 2019 年期间 161 个国家的全球经验证据。研究还包括双向和三向互动,以更好地理解上述可持续发展目标之间复杂的相互作用。实证研究采用了动态共同相关效应-工具变量估计和矩量法-方差回归模型。主要研究结果证实,绿色能源和能源效率对减少所有地区与能源相关的排放都有显著贡献(亚洲的绿色能源除外)。随着排放水平的上升,绿色能源(能效)的效果往往略有下降(上升)。经济生产率似乎会引发排放,在低生产率地区影响更大。我们还发现,SDG-7 的两个目标在减缓能源相关排放和削弱 SDG-8.2 在不同排放定量中的排放触发效应方面具有协同作用。总之,最大限度地发挥可持续发展目标 7 和 8 之间的协同作用可大幅减少能源驱动的排放。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of supply chain digitalization, business enterprise R&D expenditure and government budget allocations for R&D: A roadmap towards carbon neutrality
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108057
Zhouzhi Li, Jiaguo Liu
Reliance only on economic growth fueled by fossil fuels may become unsustainable, where the negative ecological consequences of this growth path are rapidly impacting the ecosystem. To address these challenges, enhancing supply chain digitalization, increasing business enterprise R&D expenditure, and boosting government budget allocations for R&D are essential. Additionally, improving fossil fuel energy efficiency can play a critical role in reducing the environmental impact while transitioning to a more sustainable economic model. Hence, to solve this policy issue, this study empirically analyzed the drivers of CO2 emissions (CEM) between 2000Q1 and 2022Q4. By using time-frequency estimators, such as wavelet quantile-on-quantile regression (WQQR) and bootstrap Fourier Granger causality (BFQC), the research produces a variety of results that may be used to shape a policy framework focused on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The results from BFQC show that business enterprise R&D expenditure, government budget allocations for R&D, fossil fuel energy efficiency, and oil Price Uncertainty lessen CEM while supply chain digitalization increases CEM. The bootstrap Fourier Granger causality also disclosed negative causality from business enterprise R&D expenditure government budget allocations for R&D, fossil fuel energy efficiency, and oil Price Uncertainty to CEM. In addition, supply chain digitalization has a positive predictive power over CEM. This study contributes to the existing literature by proposing an exhaustive and flexible policy structure designed to promote the advancement of SDGs 7, 8, and 13.
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引用次数: 0
Information linkages across countries around net zero announcements 各国围绕净零宣布的信息联系
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108062
Mona Mashhadi Rajabi , Martina Linnenluecke , Tom Smith
This study investigates the information linkages around net zero announcements across countries. Relying on rational expectation theory, this study employs the generalized method of moments (GMM) as well as the implied volatility approach to quantify volatility linkages between exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from nine countries and a global ETF (WLD). The GMM analysis reveals that volatility linkages among country ETFs and WLD range from 39.67 % to 71.43 %, while the implied volatility approach indicates that volatility linkages between markets range from 32.31 % to 65.36 %, indicating significant information spillover across countries. A time-varying dynamic analysis further shows that the US Government's net zero announcement increased volatility linkages across markets by 8.7 % to 58.05 %, signaling market approval of the US commitment to net zero targets. Multivariate analysis of the monthly correlation between country ETFs and WLD shows that the US plays a pivotal role. Although net zero announcements by the US, UK, and China individually impacted market correlations, the effect of China's announcement was insignificant when all announcements were considered in the model. Without US participation, efforts by other countries to achieve global net zero goals are unlikely to succeed.
本研究调查了各国净额为零的公告前后的信息联系。本研究以理性预期理论为基础,采用广义矩法(GMM)和隐含波动率法量化九个国家的交易所交易基金(ETF)与全球 ETF(WLD)之间的波动率联系。GMM 分析表明,国家 ETF 和 WLD 之间的波动性联系介于 39.67 % 到 71.43 % 之间,而隐含波动率法表明,市场之间的波动性联系介于 32.31 % 到 65.36 % 之间,这表明各国之间存在显著的信息溢出。时变动态分析进一步显示,美国政府宣布净零增长后,各市场之间的波动率联系增加了 8.7%,达到 58.05%,表明市场认可美国净零增长目标的承诺。对国家 ETF 和 WLD 之间的月度相关性进行的多变量分析表明,美国发挥着举足轻重的作用。尽管美国、英国和中国各自宣布的净零目标对市场相关性产生了影响,但将所有宣布纳入模型考虑时,中国宣布的影响并不显著。没有美国的参与,其他国家实现全球净零目标的努力就不可能成功。
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引用次数: 0
Temporal dynamics of geopolitical risk: An empirical study on energy commodity interest-adjusted spreads 地缘政治风险的时间动态:能源商品利率调整利差实证研究
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108066
Amar Rao , Brian Lucey , Satish Kumar
The functioning of energy markets is essential for global stability and is heavily influenced by geopolitical risks. Understanding these risks is critical for policymakers, market analysts, and nations. This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risks and their components on the futures markets of WTI crude oil and natural gas, utilizing time and frequency connectedness analysis along with impulse response function methods. The analysis is based on a dataset comprising daily prices of spot and futures contracts (across various maturities) as well as treasury yields. Our findings reveal that geopolitical risks have a significant, negative impact on the interest-adjusted spread of WTI crude oil. In contrast, the interest-adjusted spread of natural gas futures (NGF) displays a more complex pattern: while short-term maturities show an insignificant response, long-term maturities exhibit a significant reaction. Spillover effects are more pronounced in the short term but tend to weaken over longer horizons. This study underscores the dynamic influence of geopolitical risks on both key energy markets. Its findings offer a practical framework for risk management, equipping market participants and policymakers with valuable insights to better understand and respond to geopolitical risks in the energy sector.
能源市场的运作对全球稳定至关重要,并在很大程度上受到地缘政治风险的影响。了解这些风险对政策制定者、市场分析师和各国都至关重要。本研究利用时间和频率关联性分析以及脉冲响应函数方法,研究了地缘政治风险及其组成部分对 WTI 原油和天然气期货市场的影响。分析基于一个数据集,其中包括现货和期货合约(不同期限)的每日价格以及国债收益率。我们的研究结果表明,地缘政治风险对 WTI 原油的利息调整后价差有显著的负面影响。相比之下,天然气期货(NGF)的利率调整后价差则显示出更为复杂的模式:短期期限合约的反应并不明显,而长期期限合约则表现出明显的反应。溢出效应在短期内更为明显,但在长期内趋于减弱。这项研究强调了地缘政治风险对两个主要能源市场的动态影响。研究结果为风险管理提供了一个实用框架,为市场参与者和政策制定者更好地理解和应对能源行业的地缘政治风险提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Vertical spillovers and the energy intensity of European industries 纵向溢出效应和欧洲工业的能源密集度
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108053
Jaana Rahko
The prior literature has argued that inter-sectoral supply chain links provide an important channel for technology diffusion and productivity spillovers across industries, but whether such vertical spillovers influence industrial energy use has remained unexplored thus far. This study analyzes how the energy intensity of European industries is affected by vertical technology and energy productivity spillovers along the industrial supply chain. The analysis combines international input-output tables, energy use and patent data. Panel data from 2000 to 2014 for 27 industries in 29 countries is analyzed using panel fixed effects and instrumental variable estimation methods. The findings reveal that supply-use links channel significant vertical spillovers that promote a decline in energy intensity in downstream industries. These spillovers appear to be more strongly associated with overall energy intensity changes in upstream industries and, to some degree, with patented green innovations in upstream industries.
先前的文献认为,部门间的供应链联系为跨行业的技术扩散和生产率溢出提供了重要渠道,但这种垂直溢出是否会影响工业能源使用,迄今仍未得到探讨。本研究分析了欧洲工业的能源强度如何受到工业供应链纵向技术和能源生产率溢出效应的影响。分析结合了国际投入产出表、能源使用和专利数据。使用面板固定效应和工具变量估计方法,分析了 2000 年至 2014 年 29 个国家 27 个行业的面板数据。研究结果表明,供应-使用环节产生了显著的纵向溢出效应,促进了下游产业能源密集度的下降。这些溢出效应似乎与上游产业的整体能源强度变化以及在一定程度上与上游产业的专利绿色创新有着更密切的联系。
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引用次数: 0
On the incentive properties of revenue cap regulation
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108052
Dennis L. Weisman
Revenue cap regulation (RCR) is increasingly common in the energy sector because it purportedly reduces the regulated firm's disincentive to promote conservation. In comparison with price-cap regulation, RCR can yield higher prices, greater energy conservation, lower service quality and decreased cost-reducing innovation. The distortionary effects of earnings sharing on investment in cost-reducing innovation may be lessened under RCR. These properties hold even when the regulated firm is further constrained with a price cap that is set equal to the minimum price that satisfies the RCR constraint.
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引用次数: 0
Impact of policy uncertainty on stock market volatility in the China’s low-carbon economy 政策不确定性对中国低碳经济股市波动的影响
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108056
Liping Liu , Zheng Lü , Seong-Min Yoon
High speculation and volatility in China's stock market make enhancing volatility estimation and prediction in green and low-carbon sectors essential to meet the financing demands of the carbon-neutral industry and ensure sustainable development. In this study, we first introduce the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) into the DAGM model to construct an improved model, DAGM-VIX, to explore the impact of China's Economic Policy Uncertainty (CEPU) and Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) on the stock market volatility of China's low-carbon economy. In addition, economic policy uncertainty is further decomposed into related uncertainties such as fiscal policy, monetary policy, trade policy, and exchange rate and capital account policy to explore in depth the heterogeneity of their impacts on stock market volatility of low-carbon economy. The results show that CEPU and CPU have a significant impact on the long-term volatility of China's green and low-carbon industries, and there are differences in the impact of uncertainty on stock market volatility in different policy areas. Compared with original DAGM and GM models, the DAGM-VIX model is superior in its predictive ability, and the DAGM-VIX-CEPU model, in particular, performs particularly well in predicting the volatility of green and low-carbon transition industries.
中国股票市场的投机性和波动性较高,因此加强绿色低碳行业的波动性估计和预测对于满足碳中和行业的融资需求和确保可持续发展至关重要。本研究首先在 DAGM 模型中引入 CBOE 波动率指数(VIX),构建改进模型 DAGM-VIX,探讨中国经济政策不确定性(CEPU)和气候政策不确定性(CPU)对中国低碳经济股票市场波动率的影响。此外,还将经济政策不确定性进一步分解为财政政策、货币政策、贸易政策、汇率和资本账户政策等相关不确定性,深入探讨其对低碳经济股市波动影响的异质性。结果表明,CEPU 和 CPU 对中国绿色低碳产业的长期波动性有显著影响,不同政策领域的不确定性对股市波动性的影响存在差异。与原有的 DAGM 和 GM 模型相比,DAGM-VIX 模型的预测能力更胜一筹,尤其是 DAGM-VIX-CEPU 模型在预测绿色低碳转型产业的波动性方面表现尤为突出。
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引用次数: 0
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Energy Economics
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