Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-02-04DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115131
Shiyan Wen , Yongqiang Zhang , Zhijie Jia
The costs associated with low-carbon policies (LCPs) have long been a point of contention within the academic community. This study diverges from previous research by examining the impacts of multiple LCPs under an identical emission reduction trajectory. Using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the analysis reveals critical shortcomings of various approaches: emission trading may lack cost-efficiency, carbon taxes can impose disproportionate burdens on households, and resource taxes risk increasing energy import dependence. To overcome these challenges, the study proposes several optimization strategies, including extending policy coverage, exempting households from direct taxation, and introducing a surtax on imported primary energy. The evaluation of six optimized strategies leads to targeted policy recommendations. In conclusion, this paper contributes new insights into the effectiveness of policy instruments in achieving a transition to low-carbon systems.
{"title":"Revisiting instrument choices for low-carbon transitions: Carbon tax, emission trading, and resource tax","authors":"Shiyan Wen , Yongqiang Zhang , Zhijie Jia","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115131","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115131","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The costs associated with low-carbon policies (LCPs) have long been a point of contention within the academic community. This study diverges from previous research by examining the impacts of multiple LCPs under an identical emission reduction trajectory. Using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the analysis reveals critical shortcomings of various approaches: emission trading may lack cost-efficiency, carbon taxes can impose disproportionate burdens on households, and resource taxes risk increasing energy import dependence. To overcome these challenges, the study proposes several optimization strategies, including extending policy coverage, exempting households from direct taxation, and introducing a surtax on imported primary energy. The evaluation of six optimized strategies leads to targeted policy recommendations. In conclusion, this paper contributes new insights into the effectiveness of policy instruments in achieving a transition to low-carbon systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115131"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146185530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-02-04DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115130
Andrea Vecchi , Yimin Zhang , Dominic Davis , Ryan Jones , Simon Smart , Chris Greig , Michael Brear
Whilst demand- and supply-side interventions are both essential for energy system decarbonisation, most energy system modelling used to inform policy development focuses on supply-side actions. This work therefore first presents optimised pathways for Australia to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, followed by analysis and discussion of both the demand- and supply-side costs and emissions in four end-use sectors, i.e. residential and commercial buildings, transport and industry. This includes a discussion of the staging of actions and their costs over the net-zero transition by sector. This granular sectoral and sub-sectoral understanding of cost drivers is intended to support the development of staged and targeted policies for system-wide decarbonisation. For example, this work shows that whilst demand and supply-side interventions contribute similarly to the overall costs of a net-zero transition, there are significant sectoral differences in these costs and their associated capital intensities, their avoided greenhouse gas emissions and their best timing for different abatement actions. This analysis therefore suggests that industry and transport decarbonisation should be priorities, accounting for about 80 % of the total net-zero abatement task and with about half of the industry's emissions potentially abated at lower costs than those of the transport and residential sectors.
{"title":"Characterising the supply- and demand-sides of the net-zero transition to inform sectoral decarbonisation policy","authors":"Andrea Vecchi , Yimin Zhang , Dominic Davis , Ryan Jones , Simon Smart , Chris Greig , Michael Brear","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115130","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115130","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Whilst demand- and supply-side interventions are both essential for energy system decarbonisation, most energy system modelling used to inform policy development focuses on supply-side actions. This work therefore first presents optimised pathways for Australia to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, followed by analysis and discussion of both the demand- and supply-side costs and emissions in four end-use sectors, i.e. residential and commercial buildings, transport and industry. This includes a discussion of the staging of actions and their costs over the net-zero transition by sector. This granular sectoral and sub-sectoral understanding of cost drivers is intended to support the development of staged and targeted policies for system-wide decarbonisation. For example, this work shows that whilst demand and supply-side interventions contribute similarly to the overall costs of a net-zero transition, there are significant sectoral differences in these costs and their associated capital intensities, their avoided greenhouse gas emissions and their best timing for different abatement actions. This analysis therefore suggests that industry and transport decarbonisation should be priorities, accounting for about 80 % of the total net-zero abatement task and with about half of the industry's emissions potentially abated at lower costs than those of the transport and residential sectors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115130"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146185535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-21DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115084
Lu Chen, Yingcheng Wang
Based on five waves of data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) between 2011 and 2020, we employ a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to examine the causal effect of the Targeted Poverty Alleviation (TPA) policy on households’ adoption of clean cooking fuels. The results show that the TPA policy significantly increased the likelihood of clean fuel use, particularly electricity, among targeted poor households. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that the policy effects are more pronounced in southern regions, in communities with higher poverty levels, among households with Internet access, and among larger households. Mechanism analyses suggest that the TPA policy promotes clean cooking fuel adoption primarily by improving household income levels and encouraging participation in off-farm employment. Further analysis shows that while absolute energy expenditures rose, their share in household income declined, indicating improved affordability. Furthermore, we find that the TPA policy can enhances subjective well-being by facilitating the transition to cleaner cooking fuels. These findings suggest that comprehensive poverty alleviation programmes such as the TPA policy can play an important role in accelerating household energy transitions.
{"title":"Does targeted poverty alleviation promote the adoption of clean cooking fuels? Evidence from a quasi-experimental study in China","authors":"Lu Chen, Yingcheng Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115084","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115084","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on five waves of data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) between 2011 and 2020, we employ a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to examine the causal effect of the Targeted Poverty Alleviation (TPA) policy on households’ adoption of clean cooking fuels. The results show that the TPA policy significantly increased the likelihood of clean fuel use, particularly electricity, among targeted poor households. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that the policy effects are more pronounced in southern regions, in communities with higher poverty levels, among households with Internet access, and among larger households. Mechanism analyses suggest that the TPA policy promotes clean cooking fuel adoption primarily by improving household income levels and encouraging participation in off-farm employment. Further analysis shows that while absolute energy expenditures rose, their share in household income declined, indicating improved affordability. Furthermore, we find that the TPA policy can enhances subjective well-being by facilitating the transition to cleaner cooking fuels. These findings suggest that comprehensive poverty alleviation programmes such as the TPA policy can play an important role in accelerating household energy transitions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115084"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115094
Xiaodan Guo , Bowen Xiao , Ce Jia , Jintao Gu , Shao-Chao Ma
Initiated in 2017, China's Clean Heating Campaign (CHC) has substantially promoted the transition of heating energy use toward cleaner alternatives through extensive government subsidies. However, under growing fiscal pressure, 53 CHC pilot cities have exited the national subsidy program, confronting the critical challenge of achieving a stable transition from the “strong subsidy era” to the “post-subsidy era.” This study employs a dynamic partial equilibrium model incorporating endogenous technological innovation to evaluate subsidy phase-out strategies and alternative policies to subsidies. Results indicate that the current stepwise phase-out approach will trigger resurgences in scattered-coal use. To address this, we propose a self-feedback mechanism that adjusts subsidy levels directly with the gap between clean heating's cost competitiveness and coal heating. This adaptive mechanism enhances environmental performance while mitigating fiscal pressure and energy poverty. Furthermore, peak-valley electricity pricing emerges as a cost-effective alternative to direct subsidies by encouraging economically efficient demand-side responses. The findings offer actionable insights for designing environmentally and fiscally sustainable clean heating policies in the post-subsidy context.
{"title":"How should China exit clean heating subsidies? Policy design for the post-subsidy transition","authors":"Xiaodan Guo , Bowen Xiao , Ce Jia , Jintao Gu , Shao-Chao Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115094","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115094","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Initiated in 2017, China's <em>Clean Heating Campaign</em> (CHC) has substantially promoted the transition of heating energy use toward cleaner alternatives through extensive government subsidies. However, under growing fiscal pressure, 53 CHC pilot cities have exited the national subsidy program, confronting the critical challenge of achieving a stable transition from the “strong subsidy era” to the “post-subsidy era.” This study employs a dynamic partial equilibrium model incorporating endogenous technological innovation to evaluate subsidy phase-out strategies and alternative policies to subsidies. Results indicate that the current stepwise phase-out approach will trigger resurgences in scattered-coal use. To address this, we propose a self-feedback mechanism that adjusts subsidy levels directly with the gap between clean heating's cost competitiveness and coal heating. This adaptive mechanism enhances environmental performance while mitigating fiscal pressure and energy poverty. Furthermore, peak-valley electricity pricing emerges as a cost-effective alternative to direct subsidies by encouraging economically efficient demand-side responses. The findings offer actionable insights for designing environmentally and fiscally sustainable clean heating policies in the post-subsidy context.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115094"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115103
Caroline Bottu , Eric F. Lambin
As many countries worldwide accelerate renewable energy deployment to meet climate targets, understanding the factors shaping acceptance of solar PV projects is essential for effective spatial planning. This study examined 236 utility-scale solar projects (>1 MWp) across various development stages in the French Alps, aiming to identify what influences market, socio-political, and community acceptance. This study adopts a mixed-method approach, combining spatial autocorrelation analysis, logistic regression, random forest modelling, and qualitative assessment of environmental impact reports, we explored the spatial patterns of project submission and approval. Market acceptance is primarily associated with economic factors: solar irradiance, slope, grid proximity, and land costs. Developers tend to avoid agricultural areas given regulatory constraints under the Mountain law, and rather favour forested or artificial surfaces. In contrast, socio-political acceptance is determined almost exclusively by environmental protection, with biophysical integrity being the only significant predictor of project approval, whereas socio-demographic characteristics of local populations show no measurable influence. Both submitted and approved projects display significant spatial clustering, with 51 % of recent projects (since 2020) concentrated in suitable areas representing just 9 % of the territory. This reflects a learning process among developers, who increasingly target areas with higher approval rates. While this suggests opportunities for targeted spatial planning via designated acceleration areas, it also raises concerns about energy justice and uneven community burdens. The spatial mismatch between market and socio-political acceptance criteria, and the dominance of environmental over social considerations, highlight the need for more transparent and inclusive permitting processes.
{"title":"Mismatch between where solar projects are proposed and approved: the case of PV acceptance in the French Alps","authors":"Caroline Bottu , Eric F. Lambin","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115103","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115103","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As many countries worldwide accelerate renewable energy deployment to meet climate targets, understanding the factors shaping acceptance of solar PV projects is essential for effective spatial planning. This study examined 236 utility-scale solar projects (>1 MWp) across various development stages in the French Alps, aiming to identify what influences market, socio-political, and community acceptance. This study adopts a mixed-method approach, combining spatial autocorrelation analysis, logistic regression, random forest modelling, and qualitative assessment of environmental impact reports, we explored the spatial patterns of project submission and approval. Market acceptance is primarily associated with economic factors: solar irradiance, slope, grid proximity, and land costs. Developers tend to avoid agricultural areas given regulatory constraints under the Mountain law, and rather favour forested or artificial surfaces. In contrast, socio-political acceptance is determined almost exclusively by environmental protection, with biophysical integrity being the only significant predictor of project approval, whereas socio-demographic characteristics of local populations show no measurable influence. Both submitted and approved projects display significant spatial clustering, with 51 % of recent projects (since 2020) concentrated in suitable areas representing just 9 % of the territory. This reflects a learning process among developers, who increasingly target areas with higher approval rates. While this suggests opportunities for targeted spatial planning via designated acceleration areas, it also raises concerns about energy justice and uneven community burdens. The spatial mismatch between market and socio-political acceptance criteria, and the dominance of environmental over social considerations, highlight the need for more transparent and inclusive permitting processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115103"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-02-06DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115137
Sumanth Yamujala, Matti Koivisto, Shubham Nayak
The rapid expansion of variable renewable energy (VRE) in Europe has intensified the merit-order effect and resulted in deteriorating value factors. This raises concerns about the market viability and future investments in VRE technologies. This paper examines how the market value and value factor of VRE technologies may evolve across Europe towards 2050, using the Balmorel energy system model. Three scenarios are analysed, reflecting different levels of sector coupling, each stress-tested against five sub-scenarios that capture uncertainties in technology costs and fuel prices. The results highlight that sector coupling and cross-border interconnections play a decisive role in stabilising value factors and mitigating the self-cannibalisation of VRE. Higher flexibility systems reduce average wholesale electricity prices, but improve value factors, and vice versa in systems with limited flexibility. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the effects of technology cost uncertainties and fuel price shocks are more pronounced in the near term. Both the metrics under such sensitivities tend to converge towards the Base case projections by 2050. The findings emphasise the importance of market value, alongside wholesale prices, as a realistic indicator of VRE profitability and investment signals.
{"title":"Can Europe’s decarbonisation goals offset the merit-order effect and support renewable energy value factors?","authors":"Sumanth Yamujala, Matti Koivisto, Shubham Nayak","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115137","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115137","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid expansion of variable renewable energy (VRE) in Europe has intensified the merit-order effect and resulted in deteriorating value factors. This raises concerns about the market viability and future investments in VRE technologies. This paper examines how the market value and value factor of VRE technologies may evolve across Europe towards 2050, using the Balmorel energy system model. Three scenarios are analysed, reflecting different levels of sector coupling, each stress-tested against five sub-scenarios that capture uncertainties in technology costs and fuel prices. The results highlight that sector coupling and cross-border interconnections play a decisive role in stabilising value factors and mitigating the self-cannibalisation of VRE. Higher flexibility systems reduce average wholesale electricity prices, but improve value factors, and vice versa in systems with limited flexibility. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the effects of technology cost uncertainties and fuel price shocks are more pronounced in the near term. Both the metrics under such sensitivities tend to converge towards the Base case projections by 2050. The findings emphasise the importance of market value, alongside wholesale prices, as a realistic indicator of VRE profitability and investment signals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115137"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146185496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Disentangling the relationship between energy security, climate policy uncertainty(CPU), and climate transition risk index (CTRI) is essential to formulating integrated strategies for energy resilience and climate mitigation. This study conducts static and dynamic analyses of the spillover relationships among the three variables, identifying their transmission paths and changes in dominant factors across different time scales, incorporating a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model, and multi-dimensional and mixed-frequency spillover analysis. The results shown that: (1) China's energy security exhibit significant volatility between 2009 and 2020, which is confirmed through a comparative analysis with the CSI energy index; (2) CPU acts as a net transmitter, dominating system volatility, while energy security and climate transition risk function as net receivers, passively influenced by policy changes and external shocks; (3) short-term spillovers are limited, while medium-term spillovers become increasingly pronounced, reflecting stronger inter-variable interactions; and (4) notably, although transition risk is policy-driven, its influence tends to lag behind immediate policy effects, continuing to affect the system over an extended period. This study offers empirical evidence to support the coordinated advancement of energy security and climate goals.
{"title":"Energy security, climate policy uncertainty, and climate transition risk: A mixed-frequency multi-dimensional spillover analysis","authors":"Xinfei Ge , Dequn Zhou , Liangpeng Wu , Qingyuan Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115091","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115091","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disentangling the relationship between energy security, climate policy uncertainty(CPU), and climate transition risk index (CTRI) is essential to formulating integrated strategies for energy resilience and climate mitigation. This study conducts static and dynamic analyses of the spillover relationships among the three variables, identifying their transmission paths and changes in dominant factors across different time scales, incorporating a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model, and multi-dimensional and mixed-frequency spillover analysis. The results shown that: (1) China's energy security exhibit significant volatility between 2009 and 2020, which is confirmed through a comparative analysis with the CSI energy index; (2) CPU acts as a net transmitter, dominating system volatility, while energy security and climate transition risk function as net receivers, passively influenced by policy changes and external shocks; (3) short-term spillovers are limited, while medium-term spillovers become increasingly pronounced, reflecting stronger inter-variable interactions; and (4) notably, although transition risk is policy-driven, its influence tends to lag behind immediate policy effects, continuing to affect the system over an extended period. This study offers empirical evidence to support the coordinated advancement of energy security and climate goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115091"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146001769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-31DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115132
Yanhua Wang , Yuning Zhang , Ke Wang , Junling Liu , Xunzhang Pan
Stranded assets are critical in ensuring a secure low-carbon transition, given the influence of China's coal power on global climate goals and the national 2060 carbon neutrality target. Considering the impact of stranded assets on investors and stakeholders, the concept has been extended from early retirement losses to net cash flow decreases caused by technical upgrades. This study uses unit-level financial modeling of coal power to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of stranded assets under different transition pathways. With fixed electricity prices, total stranded assets are estimated at 3.54 trillion CNY in the early retirement (ER) scenario, 5.38 trillion CNY in the lifetime utilization (LU) scenario, 5.94 trillion CNY in the CCS scenario. The mixed scenario, which tailors policies based on unit service life and combustion technology, results in stranded assets of 4.86 trillion CNY, with lower risk peaks and smaller regional differences. Electricity market reforms significantly mitigate risks: under high prices, they decline further to 2.86, 2.68, 3.40, and 2.59 trillion CNY, respectively. Therefore, coal power transition strategies should follow a classification-based and regionally adaptive approach, facilitating a shift in the role of coal power from baseload generation toward flexibility and reliability provision. At the same time, complementary electricity price reforms are essential to reducing stranded assets and enhancing the robustness of the low-carbon transition.
{"title":"Unit-level stranded asset of coal power under low-carbon transition pathways toward China's carbon neutrality","authors":"Yanhua Wang , Yuning Zhang , Ke Wang , Junling Liu , Xunzhang Pan","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115132","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115132","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Stranded assets are critical in ensuring a secure low-carbon transition, given the influence of China's coal power on global climate goals and the national 2060 carbon neutrality target. Considering the impact of stranded assets on investors and stakeholders, the concept has been extended from early retirement losses to net cash flow decreases caused by technical upgrades. This study uses unit-level financial modeling of coal power to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of stranded assets under different transition pathways. With fixed electricity prices, total stranded assets are estimated at 3.54 trillion CNY in the early retirement (ER) scenario, 5.38 trillion CNY in the lifetime utilization (LU) scenario, 5.94 trillion CNY in the CCS scenario. The mixed scenario, which tailors policies based on unit service life and combustion technology, results in stranded assets of 4.86 trillion CNY, with lower risk peaks and smaller regional differences. Electricity market reforms significantly mitigate risks: under high prices, they decline further to 2.86, 2.68, 3.40, and 2.59 trillion CNY, respectively. Therefore, coal power transition strategies should follow a classification-based and regionally adaptive approach, facilitating a shift in the role of coal power from baseload generation toward flexibility and reliability provision. At the same time, complementary electricity price reforms are essential to reducing stranded assets and enhancing the robustness of the low-carbon transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115132"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146090738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study develops an integrated System Dynamics (SD) framework to analyze and resolve Iran's persistent electricity shortage crisis by 2041. Despite substantial fossil fuel reserves and renewable potential, Iran's power system faces chronic supply deficits, reaching up to 18 GW during peak periods, driven by inefficient consumption, subsidy distortions, and aging infrastructure. The proposed model simulates the interactions among demand, supply, fiscal, and environmental variables to evaluate the dynamic effects of five major policy interventions: gradual fuel subsidy removal, consumer equipment efficiency enhancement, carbon taxation, renewable purchase guarantees with financial support, and an integrated mixed policy. Simulation results reveal that isolated measures produce limited outcomes, subsidy reform reduces shortages by only 5.5%, while efficiency improvements and renewable support each eliminate deficits by 2031. The integrated policy, consolidating fiscal revenues through a National Energy Transition Fund (NETF), achieves full shortage elimination by 2027 and creates a 98 TWh surplus by 2041, while cutting CO2 emissions by 43%. Sensitivity tests confirm model robustness under macroeconomic and technological uncertainty. The findings demonstrate that policy coordination amplifies synergies, enabling both energy security and deep decarbonization. The framework provides actionable insights for policymakers in Iran and other fossil-fuel-dependent economies, underscoring the effectiveness of revenue recycling, systemic integration, and early renewable investment in accelerating sustainable energy transitions.
{"title":"Resolving Iran's electricity shortage crisis through integrated energy policy: A system dynamics approach","authors":"Mohammad-Mahdi Pazuki , Mohsen Salimi , Matin karbasioun , Nasser Safaie , Majid Amidpour","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115126","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115126","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study develops an integrated System Dynamics (SD) framework to analyze and resolve Iran's persistent electricity shortage crisis by 2041. Despite substantial fossil fuel reserves and renewable potential, Iran's power system faces chronic supply deficits, reaching up to 18 GW during peak periods, driven by inefficient consumption, subsidy distortions, and aging infrastructure. The proposed model simulates the interactions among demand, supply, fiscal, and environmental variables to evaluate the dynamic effects of five major policy interventions: gradual fuel subsidy removal, consumer equipment efficiency enhancement, carbon taxation, renewable purchase guarantees with financial support, and an integrated mixed policy. Simulation results reveal that isolated measures produce limited outcomes, subsidy reform reduces shortages by only 5.5%, while efficiency improvements and renewable support each eliminate deficits by 2031. The integrated policy, consolidating fiscal revenues through a National Energy Transition Fund (NETF), achieves full shortage elimination by 2027 and creates a 98 TWh surplus by 2041, while cutting CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 43%. Sensitivity tests confirm model robustness under macroeconomic and technological uncertainty. The findings demonstrate that policy coordination amplifies synergies, enabling both energy security and deep decarbonization. The framework provides actionable insights for policymakers in Iran and other fossil-fuel-dependent economies, underscoring the effectiveness of revenue recycling, systemic integration, and early renewable investment in accelerating sustainable energy transitions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115126"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146185536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-24DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115071
Jayash Paudel
Power outages can cause electric utilities to lose revenues and incur larger operational costs from system repair and restoration. Yet reliable estimates on the economic impact of power interruptions on electric utilities are not available. This article exploits spatial and temporal variation in different levels of transmission-led service interruption among 71 electric utilities from 42 countries in Africa to estimate changes in operational costs from rising power outages. Results based on cross-utility panel data over an eleven-year-long period from 2012 to 2022 illustrate that an average total duration of outages from transmission exceeding 900 hours a year (relative to the baseline levels of less than 100 hours a year) results in a 0.85% increase in operational costs ($ per kWh). These costs increase in magnitude in response to power interruptions corresponding to higher bins. Electrical utilities also report declines in both total revenues and shares of cash revenues, indicating signs of operational burden from severe power outages. Estimates further indicate that utilities with lower shares of hydroelectricity generation experience substantial increases in operational costs, implying that hydropower can effectively mitigate transmission power outages. Regression analysis also shows that higher shares of generation from non-hydro renewable energy sources that experience grid stabilization challenges do not lower outage-induced operational costs. Together, these results illustrate that large investments in hydroelectricity generation have the potential to address energy poverty in Africa.
{"title":"Rising operational costs from power outages: Implications for hydropower","authors":"Jayash Paudel","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115071","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115071","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Power outages can cause electric utilities to lose revenues and incur larger operational costs from system repair and restoration. Yet reliable estimates on the economic impact of power interruptions on electric utilities are not available. This article exploits spatial and temporal variation in different levels of transmission-led service interruption among 71 electric utilities from 42 countries in Africa to estimate changes in operational costs from rising power outages. Results based on cross-utility panel data over an eleven-year-long period from 2012 to 2022 illustrate that an average total duration of outages from transmission exceeding 900 hours a year (relative to the baseline levels of less than 100 hours a year) results in a 0.85% increase in operational costs ($ per kWh). These costs increase in magnitude in response to power interruptions corresponding to higher bins. Electrical utilities also report declines in both total revenues and shares of cash revenues, indicating signs of operational burden from severe power outages. Estimates further indicate that utilities with lower shares of hydroelectricity generation experience substantial increases in operational costs, implying that hydropower can effectively mitigate transmission power outages. Regression analysis also shows that higher shares of generation from non-hydro renewable energy sources that experience grid stabilization challenges do not lower outage-induced operational costs. Together, these results illustrate that large investments in hydroelectricity generation have the potential to address energy poverty in Africa.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115071"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146090598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号