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Evaluating readiness for hydrogen in the United States aviation industry from a policy lens 从政策角度评估美国航空业对氢的准备情况
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115188
A. Beutler-Greene , E.G. Waddington , P.J. Ansell
The paper considers the policy implications related to the way hydrogen operations have been depicted across the key challenges of production, distribution, and storage as well as specific guidance provided for the aviation industry. Among the alternative fuels under consideration for future U.S. aircraft fleets, many analysts view hydrogen as cost-effective and efficiently scalable. Given hydrogen’s potential as an energy source, there has been an increase in technical redesigns of aircraft to accommodate the relationship between hydrogen storage propulsion and energy systems along with experimentation with commercial aircraft models, culminating in an expansion of contemporary flight tests.
Using a balanced readiness assessment model, this paper evaluates policies undertaken by the U.S. Departments of Energy and Transportation, as well as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, to promote hydrogen between 2000 and 2025. The sample of 13 policy documents revealed an imbalance in coverage related to operational maturity on aircraft, in contrast to the high degree of readiness for hydrogen across production, distribution, and storage domains. For aviation, a geometric mean for Technological Readiness is assessed at a level 4, Market Readiness at level 5; Regulatory Readiness at level 5; Acceptance Readiness at level 4, and Organizational Readiness at level 5. After the initial cross-stakeholder evaluation, the sample is mapped onto the Gartner Hype Cycle, where early innovation has occurred and hydrogen operations are ready for committed development. Critically, the imbalanced operational coverage of policies assessed in this sample was immediately followed by the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024, which explicitly prioritizes the connection of hydrogen research to aviation operations.
本文考虑了在生产、分销和储存的关键挑战中描述氢运营方式的政策影响,以及为航空业提供的具体指导。在未来美国飞机机队正在考虑的替代燃料中,许多分析人士认为氢具有成本效益和可扩展性。鉴于氢作为能源的潜力,飞机的技术重新设计有所增加,以适应储氢推进和能源系统之间的关系,以及商用飞机模型的实验,最终扩大了当代飞行测试。利用平衡准备评估模型,本文评估了美国能源部和运输部以及美国国家航空航天局在2000年至2025年期间为促进氢能源发展所采取的政策。13份政策文件的样本显示,与氢气在生产、分销和储存领域的高度准备相比,与飞机操作成熟度相关的覆盖范围存在不平衡。对于航空业,技术准备程度的几何平均值被评估为第4级,市场准备程度被评估为第5级;监管准备程度达到第5级;接受准备为第4级,组织准备为第5级。在最初的交叉利益相关者评估之后,样本被映射到Gartner Hype Cycle,在这个周期中,早期的创新已经发生,氢操作已经准备好投入开发。至关重要的是,在本样本中评估的政策的不平衡运营覆盖范围之后,美国联邦航空局(FAA)于2024年通过了《再授权法案》,该法案明确优先考虑将氢研究与航空运营联系起来。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling UK air quality implications of decarbonisation using hydrogen 模拟使用氢脱碳对英国空气质量的影响
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115179
Adam Brighty , Francisca Jalil-Vega , Nicolás Ripoll Kameid , Seokyoung Kim , Tim Oxley , Daniel Mehlig , Mike Holland , Paul E. Dodds , Helen ApSimon
Many air pollutants are directly or indirectly caused by energy production and consumption. There is concern that decarbonising economies by replacing fossil fuel with hydrogen combustion could lead to higher pollutant emissions than by an electrification strategy. This study examines the implications of adopting hydrogen. Future UK energy scenarios, with varying levels of hydrogen, have been produced using the UK TIMES energy systems model, and a link established to the air pollution model UKIAM (UK Integrated Assessment Model). Using this interface, air pollutant emissions from the energy sector have been derived and superimposed on non-energy contributions to map concentrations and estimate the resulting exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 pollution in the UK and associated health benefits. All net zero scenarios achieve a substantial improvement in air quality, with a maximum of 0.3 μg m−3 contribution to PM2.5 population-weighted mean concentrations from hydrogen production and use. This depends on the hydrogen technologies used: as a worst case, hydrogen could eliminate 50% of the economic benefits resulting from improved air quality under net zero measures.
This disbenefit arises despite emission factors for hydrogen production and use meeting potential regulatory limits for NOx. However technological improvements could possibly reduce emissions very substantially. Attention should turn to understand where hydrogen is used to displace other future or existing energy sources. Other sources of PM2.5 emissions could be potentially more important for influencing PM2.5 concentrations, such as road transport non-exhaust emissions and biomass combustion and should be considered carefully in future energy scenarios.
许多空气污染物是由能源生产和消费直接或间接造成的。有人担心,与电气化战略相比,用氢燃烧取代化石燃料的脱碳经济可能会导致更高的污染物排放。本研究考察了采用氢的影响。使用英国时报能源系统模型,并与空气污染模型UKIAM(英国综合评估模型)建立了联系,得出了未来英国能源情景,氢气含量各不相同。利用该界面,我们推导出能源部门的空气污染物排放量,并将其与非能源贡献叠加在地图浓度上,从而估算出英国由此暴露于PM2.5和二氧化氮污染以及相关的健康效益。所有净零情景都实现了空气质量的大幅改善,氢气生产和使用对PM2.5人口加权平均浓度的贡献最大为0.3 μg m−3。这取决于所使用的氢技术:在最坏的情况下,在净零措施下,氢可能会抵消50%的空气质量改善带来的经济效益。尽管氢气生产和使用的排放因素符合氮氧化物的潜在监管限制,但这种不利因素仍然存在。然而,技术改进可能会大大减少排放。应该把注意力转向了解氢在哪里被用来取代其他未来或现有的能源。PM2.5排放的其他来源可能对影响PM2.5浓度更为重要,如道路运输非废气排放和生物质燃烧,在未来的能源情景中应予以认真考虑。
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引用次数: 0
Enabling enterprise coordination without fiscal burden: New policy pathways for coal waste management 使企业协调没有财政负担:煤炭废物管理的新政策途径
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115195
Jiaojiao Ge , Lun Ran , Jiancai Wang
Coal-fired power plants generate substantial waste that requires green pretreatment before valorization, yet high costs and demand uncertainty discourage investment. Although government subsidies are often advocated to promote waste management, this study focuses on an implementable, enterprise-led alternative: recycler-provided pretreatment cost sharing as a contract-based mechanism within the supply chain, alongside recycler-to-plant demand information sharing. Using a game-theoretic model with demand uncertainty and quality differentiation, we compare equilibrium outcomes under four coordination regimes: no cooperation, information sharing only, subsidization only, and a combined mechanism. Results show that information transparency robustly improves coordination by enabling state-contingent pretreatment decisions and sustaining mutual profitability across diverse market conditions. Subsidization increases pretreatment by relieving the plant’s effective cost burden, but its attractiveness to the recycler is limited by direct payment costs, implying that cost-sharing requires targeted, performance-linked design. Combining the two instruments can strengthen outcomes under uncertainty but often provides limited incremental benefits beyond transparency. Policy implications emphasize prioritizing transparency infrastructure, standardized disclosure, and data governance as a baseline, while facilitating subsidy-like cost sharing selectively in contexts where quality premia and uncertainty make cost relief more likely to generate shared gains.
燃煤电厂产生大量废弃物,需要绿色预处理才能实现价值增值,但高成本和需求不确定性阻碍了投资。虽然政府补贴经常被提倡促进废物管理,但本研究侧重于一个可实施的、企业主导的替代方案:作为供应链中基于合同的机制,回收商提供的预处理成本分担,以及回收商到工厂的需求信息共享。本文利用具有需求不确定性和质量差异的博弈论模型,比较了不合作、信息共享、补贴和联合机制下的均衡结果。研究结果表明,信息透明通过在不同市场条件下实现状态条件下的预处理决策和维持相互盈利能力,有力地改善了协调。补贴通过减轻工厂的有效成本负担来增加预处理,但其对回收商的吸引力受到直接支付成本的限制,这意味着成本分担需要有针对性的、与性能挂钩的设计。将这两种工具结合起来可以加强不确定情况下的成果,但除了透明度之外,往往只能提供有限的增量效益。政策影响强调优先考虑透明度基础设施、标准化披露和数据治理作为基线,同时在质量溢价和不确定性使成本减免更有可能产生共享收益的情况下,有选择地促进类似补贴的成本分担。
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引用次数: 0
Household cooking in Nepal: An economic analysis 尼泊尔家庭烹饪:经济分析
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115194
Sunil Malla , Govinda R. Timilsina , Martin P. Heger
The residential sector is a major energy consumer in Nepal, with cooking being a primary end-use. Unprocessed solid biomass fuels are the main cooking fuels, with about 60% of households relying on them. However, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which is entirely imported, is becoming popular in urban areas. Electricity, mainly generated from hydropower—an environmentally friendly domestic energy source— was used for cooking in less than 1% of households. This paper analyzes the cost economics of different technologies and fuels, or their combinations, for household cooking across different topographies in Nepal from both private and social viewpoints. It shows that electricity is generally cheaper than fossil fuels but more expensive than biomass from a private perspective. When accounting for local air pollutant costs, especially PM2.5, electricity emerges as the most affordable option for cooking, except for biogas, which also has minimal external costs. The study further explores the broader economic advantages of replacing imported LPG with domestic hydropower for household cooking.
住宅部门是尼泊尔的主要能源消费者,烹饪是主要的最终用途。未加工的固体生物质燃料是主要的烹饪燃料,约有60%的家庭依赖这些燃料。但是,完全依靠进口的液化石油气(LPG)在城市越来越受欢迎。电力主要来自水电——一种环保的家庭能源——用于烹饪的家庭不到1%。本文从私人和社会的角度分析了尼泊尔不同地形的家庭烹饪的不同技术和燃料或其组合的成本经济学。它表明,从个人角度来看,电力通常比化石燃料便宜,但比生物质贵。考虑到当地的空气污染成本,尤其是PM2.5,除了外部成本最低的沼气外,电力是最实惠的烹饪选择。这项研究进一步探讨了用国内水电取代进口液化石油气用于家庭烹饪的更广泛的经济优势。
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引用次数: 0
Resource adequacy under institutional constraints and the low-carbon energy transition in China 制度约束下的资源充足性与中国低碳能源转型
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115108
Ming Wei , Boyu Yao , Michael R. Davidson
Resource adequacy of the power sector is coming under increasing stress globally due to rising electricity demand, extreme weather, and growth of variable renewable energy (VRE). Institutionally, many power sectors are transitioning from traditional central planning to some degree of market liberalization, with varied regulatory approaches to ensuring supply security. China's distinct medium- and long-term (MLT) agreement mechanisms are physical and characterized by a high degree of state intervention, with important implications for resource adequacy. This study investigates the power shortages that plagued China from 2020 to 2022, examining their extent, causes, and governmental responses. Quantitative simulations are conducted to analyze retrospectively the underlying institutional and operational factors behind the fall 2021 power crisis in Northeast China, relying on an extensive collection of publicly available datasets, ensuring transparency and reproducibility. The results highlight the rigidity of existing institutional arrangements, including MLT and capped electricity prices, in adapting to a decarbonizing energy system. Looking to 2030, China's post-crisis policy response—particularly the large-scale approval of new coal plants—may not fully resolve the power shortages if rigid institutional constraints on cross-provincial power trading persist. Instead, more flexible market and inter-provincial trading mechanisms can contribute to power sector reliability while managing growing VRE penetration.
由于电力需求上升、极端天气和可变可再生能源(VRE)的增长,全球电力部门的资源充足性正面临越来越大的压力。在体制上,许多电力部门正在从传统的中央计划过渡到某种程度的市场自由化,采用各种监管方法来确保供应安全。中国独特的中长期(MLT)协议机制是物理的,以高度的国家干预为特征,对资源充足性具有重要影响。本研究调查了从2020年到2022年困扰中国的电力短缺问题,考察了其程度、原因和政府应对措施。在确保透明度和可重复性的前提下,基于广泛收集的公开数据集,进行了定量模拟,以回顾性分析中国东北地区2021年秋季电力危机背后的潜在制度和操作因素。结果突出了现有制度安排的僵化,包括MLT和限制电价,以适应脱碳的能源系统。展望2030年,如果跨省电力交易的严格制度约束继续存在,中国的后危机政策应对——尤其是大规模批准新建燃煤电厂——可能无法完全解决电力短缺问题。相反,更灵活的市场和跨省交易机制可以促进电力部门的可靠性,同时管理不断增长的VRE渗透率。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of butane gas use by households in Burkina Faso: the role of road access 布基纳法索家庭使用丁烷气的决定因素:道路通道的作用
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115197
Moulirou Belem , Tibi Didier Zoungrana
This article aims to show the effect of road infrastructure on the use of butane gas by households in Burkina Faso, based on data from a survey on household living conditions conducted in 2021 by the INSD. To achieve this objective, the ordered logit model and the PSM method are used. The results show that access to road infrastructure increases the likelihood of households using butane gas as their primary or combined fuel source. In addition, income, price, household size, level of education, place of residence, access to electricity and the internet, and ownership of a stove have a significant impact on the likelihood of using butane gas. The results show that households that combine butane gas with other fuels and those that use it exclusively are willing to pay 495.83 CFA francs and 498.26 CFA francs per kilogram of butane gas, respectively. In terms of implications, the Burkinabe government should prioritize the targeted development of secondary road infrastructure and establish a system of targeted subsidies for low-income and rural households.
本文旨在根据INSD在2021年进行的家庭生活条件调查的数据,展示道路基础设施对布基纳法索家庭使用丁烷气的影响。为了实现这一目标,使用了有序logit模型和PSM方法。结果表明,道路基础设施的使用增加了家庭使用丁烷气作为主要或联合燃料来源的可能性。此外,收入、价格、家庭规模、教育水平、居住地、是否有电力和互联网以及是否拥有炉灶都对使用丁烷气体的可能性产生重大影响。结果表明,将丁烷气与其他燃料混合使用的家庭和专门使用丁烷气的家庭分别愿意为每公斤丁烷气支付495.83非洲法郎和498.26非洲法郎。从影响上看,布基纳法索政府应优先发展二级道路基础设施,并建立针对低收入和农村家庭的定向补贴制度。
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引用次数: 0
The end of gas 天然气的终结
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115166
Aaron Gillich
Every net zero scenario in the UK includes a reduction in gas by 2050, but none include the outright end of gas. Alternatives exist, and yet gas is still referred to as an inevitable and essential part of the UK's energy system through 2050 and beyond. This paper uses the National Grid's Future Energy Scenarios to study how much gas we expect to need in 2050 and how it will be used. It then creates a Zero Gas scenario to test if all gas use within the Holistic Transition pathway could be offset with other technologies. It finds that gas alternatives exist within the FES pathways that could replace both the total demand for gas and the ancillary benefits it provides for the UK energy system. It then explores the practical feasibility and uncertainties of the Zero Gas scenario. Decreasing gas use in a net zero economy reduces dependence on costly and unproven carbon capture technology and has clear benefits for energy security. Significant uncertainties lie in the future of the gas grid itself, with research gaps around the cost and transition pathways for disconnecting and decommissioning the gas pipework. The paper argues that the end of gas is technically feasible and that a lower boundary of zero gas use in 2050 should be more thoroughly modelled and costed in future scenarios.
英国的每一个净零排放方案都包括到2050年减少天然气的使用,但没有一个方案包括完全停止使用天然气。替代能源是存在的,但到2050年及以后,天然气仍被认为是英国能源系统不可避免的重要组成部分。本文使用国家电网的未来能源方案来研究我们预计在2050年需要多少天然气以及如何使用天然气。然后,它创建了一个零气体场景,以测试是否可以用其他技术抵消整体过渡路径中的所有气体使用。研究发现,在FES路径中存在天然气替代品,可以取代天然气的总需求和它为英国能源系统提供的辅助效益。然后探讨了零气体情景的实际可行性和不确定性。在净零经济中减少天然气的使用减少了对昂贵且未经证实的碳捕获技术的依赖,对能源安全有明显的好处。重大的不确定性在于天然气管网本身的未来,围绕天然气管道的成本和断开和退役的过渡途径的研究存在空白。论文认为,在技术上,天然气的终结是可行的,2050年零天然气使用的下限应该在未来的情景中进行更彻底的建模和成本计算。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing vulnerability and energy poverty with emphasis on comfort adaptability: A case study of southeastern Mexico 以舒适适应性为重点的脆弱性和能源贫困评估:墨西哥东南部的案例研究
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115226
M. Jiménez Torres , O. May Tzuc , David Bienvenido-Huertas , José Israel Herrera , Román A. Canul Turriza , Alexis Pérez-Fargallo
Energy Poverty is a multidimensional problem that fosters challenges in energy accessibility, social, and economic contexts for the population. The study aims to identify the degree of energy poverty at the municipal level in the southeastern states of Mexico using the Poverty Adaptive Degree Hourly Index (PADHI). The PADHI analyzes the projection of Energy Poverty, integrating adaptive thermal comfort models with indicators related to housing quality and family income. The results show that more than 65% of the southeast of the country is in the most vulnerable quintile, considering low income and housing quality, highlighting a structural problem related to income inequality and inadequate building regulations, considering the region's climatic characteristics. Additionally, a cluster analysis of the most vulnerable municipalities reveals the existence of two distinct patterns: one associated with urban contexts, mainly in capital cities, while the second group is linked to peripheral areas, where informal housing conditions and the highest levels of social exclusion prevail. These findings underscore the urgency of developing territorially differentiated energy policies, establishing mandatory local building codes, and implementing climate sensitive regulatory frameworks that can effectively mitigate energy poverty.
能源贫困是一个多方面的问题,它给人们在能源可及性、社会和经济环境方面带来挑战。该研究旨在利用贫困适应度小时指数(PADHI)确定墨西哥东南部各州市政一级的能源贫困程度。PADHI分析了能源贫困的预测,将适应性热舒适模型与住房质量和家庭收入相关指标相结合。结果显示,考虑到低收入和住房质量,该国东南部超过65%的地区处于最脆弱的五分之一,突出了与收入不平等和不充分的建筑法规相关的结构性问题,考虑到该地区的气候特征。此外,对最脆弱的城市进行的聚类分析显示,存在两种不同的模式:一种与城市环境有关,主要在首都城市,而第二种与外围地区有关,那里的住房条件不正规,社会排斥程度最高。这些发现强调了制定地域差异化能源政策、制定强制性地方建筑规范和实施气候敏感型监管框架以有效缓解能源贫困的紧迫性。
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引用次数: 0
The right kind of energy: Understanding conservative support for clean energy in South Korea 正确的能源:了解韩国保守派对清洁能源的支持
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115127
Euibeom Son, Yookyung Chin, Ye Na Chae, Dasom Lee
With the rise of conservatism in many parts of the world, political polarization has become more divisive. Considering the urgency of climate change, cross-ideological cooperation on energy policy is needed, and clean energy conservatism may provide a strategic entry point to further promote the support base for energy transition policies. Drawing on nationally representative survey data, the study finds that conservative respondents show significantly stronger support for nuclear energy and weaker support for renewables. Although both economic and environmental considerations influence energy preferences, the weight placed on these factors varies across the ideological spectrum. These findings echo trends observed in North America and Europe, where conservatives tend to prioritize economic and energy security concerns over environmental ones. However, the South Korean context presents more nuanced patterns that resist simple ideological classification. In particular, the relationships between ideology, economic and environmental reasoning, and energy preferences are more complex than a straightforward opposition between conservative and progressive values. The findings of this paper contribute to the literature on clean energy conservatism by illustrating how global patterns manifest differently in non-Western contexts, where partisan divides are more pronounced. Building on this, the study formulates policy recommendations tailored to the Korean case.
随着保守主义在世界许多地方的兴起,政治两极分化变得更加分裂。考虑到气候变化的紧迫性,需要跨意识形态的能源政策合作,清洁能源保守主义可能为进一步推动能源转型政策的支持基础提供战略切入点。根据具有全国代表性的调查数据,该研究发现,保守派受访者对核能的支持明显更强,对可再生能源的支持更弱。尽管经济和环境因素都会影响能源偏好,但在不同的意识形态中,对这些因素的重视程度各不相同。这些发现与在北美和欧洲观察到的趋势相呼应,那里的保守派倾向于优先考虑经济和能源安全问题,而不是环境问题。然而,韩国的背景呈现出更微妙的模式,抵制简单的意识形态分类。特别是,意识形态、经济和环境推理以及能源偏好之间的关系比保守价值观和进步价值观之间的直接对立更为复杂。这篇论文的发现通过说明全球模式在党派分歧更明显的非西方背景下如何表现不同,为清洁能源保守主义的文献做出了贡献。在此基础上,该研究制定了适合韩国情况的政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
Energy storage adoption: Evidence from self-generation incentive program in California 能源储存的采用:来自加州自我发电激励计划的证据
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115125
Abdullah Albijadi
Residential energy storage systems can reduce grid stress, support renewable integration and enhance household resilience, yet their adoption remains costly. Governments and utilities therefore offer upfront rebates and tax incentives, but there is limited evidence on how these subsidies influence adoption and their cost-effectiveness. This study examines California’s Self-Generation Incentive Program, which offers declining rebates for household batteries, using data on all rebate applications and installations from 2017–2022. By exploiting step-downs in the rebate schedule across utility territories and over time, and controlling for fixed effects and other factors that affect adoption, I estimate the responsiveness of installations with respect to the rebate rate. A reduction of five cents per watt hour—the typical program step-down—reduces the daily installations by roughly 15 %. Counterfactual predictions suggest that, without the program, storage installations would have been about 42 % lower. Of the $177 million in rebates awarded, around $74 million accrued to infra-marginal adopters who would have installed storage anyway. The cost-effectiveness of this policy would imply $182 per tCO2 under baseline assumptions. These findings indicate that upfront rebates can meaningfully accelerate home battery adoption but also generate substantial rents, highlighting the need for carefully calibrated incentives.
住宅储能系统可以减轻电网压力,支持可再生能源整合,增强家庭抵御能力,但其采用成本仍然很高。因此,政府和公用事业公司提供前期回扣和税收优惠,但关于这些补贴如何影响采用率及其成本效益的证据有限。这项研究调查了加州的自我发电激励计划,该计划为家用电池提供了不断下降的回扣,使用了2017-2022年所有回扣申请和安装的数据。通过利用公用事业领域和时间的回扣计划的逐步下降,并控制影响采用的固定效应和其他因素,我估计了与回扣率相关的安装响应性。每瓦时减少5美分——典型的项目递减——每天的安装减少大约15%。与事实相反的预测表明,如果没有该计划,储能装置的安装将减少约42%。在授予的1.77亿美元回扣中,大约有7400万美元是给了那些无论如何都会安装储能系统的非边际采用者。在基线假设下,这项政策的成本效益为每吨二氧化碳182美元。这些发现表明,预付回扣可以有效地加速家用电池的采用,但也会产生可观的租金,这凸显了仔细校准激励措施的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
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Energy Policy
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