Pub Date : 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115094
Xiaodan Guo , Bowen Xiao , Ce Jia , Jintao Gu , Shao-Chao Ma
Initiated in 2017, China's Clean Heating Campaign (CHC) has substantially promoted the transition of heating energy use toward cleaner alternatives through extensive government subsidies. However, under growing fiscal pressure, 53 CHC pilot cities have exited the national subsidy program, confronting the critical challenge of achieving a stable transition from the “strong subsidy era” to the “post-subsidy era.” This study employs a dynamic partial equilibrium model incorporating endogenous technological innovation to evaluate subsidy phase-out strategies and alternative policies to subsidies. Results indicate that the current stepwise phase-out approach will trigger resurgences in scattered-coal use. To address this, we propose a self-feedback mechanism that adjusts subsidy levels directly with the gap between clean heating's cost competitiveness and coal heating. This adaptive mechanism enhances environmental performance while mitigating fiscal pressure and energy poverty. Furthermore, peak-valley electricity pricing emerges as a cost-effective alternative to direct subsidies by encouraging economically efficient demand-side responses. The findings offer actionable insights for designing environmentally and fiscally sustainable clean heating policies in the post-subsidy context.
{"title":"How should China exit clean heating subsidies? Policy design for the post-subsidy transition","authors":"Xiaodan Guo , Bowen Xiao , Ce Jia , Jintao Gu , Shao-Chao Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115094","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115094","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Initiated in 2017, China's <em>Clean Heating Campaign</em> (CHC) has substantially promoted the transition of heating energy use toward cleaner alternatives through extensive government subsidies. However, under growing fiscal pressure, 53 CHC pilot cities have exited the national subsidy program, confronting the critical challenge of achieving a stable transition from the “strong subsidy era” to the “post-subsidy era.” This study employs a dynamic partial equilibrium model incorporating endogenous technological innovation to evaluate subsidy phase-out strategies and alternative policies to subsidies. Results indicate that the current stepwise phase-out approach will trigger resurgences in scattered-coal use. To address this, we propose a self-feedback mechanism that adjusts subsidy levels directly with the gap between clean heating's cost competitiveness and coal heating. This adaptive mechanism enhances environmental performance while mitigating fiscal pressure and energy poverty. Furthermore, peak-valley electricity pricing emerges as a cost-effective alternative to direct subsidies by encouraging economically efficient demand-side responses. The findings offer actionable insights for designing environmentally and fiscally sustainable clean heating policies in the post-subsidy context.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115094"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115103
Caroline Bottu , Eric F. Lambin
As many countries worldwide accelerate renewable energy deployment to meet climate targets, understanding the factors shaping acceptance of solar PV projects is essential for effective spatial planning. This study examined 236 utility-scale solar projects (>1 MWp) across various development stages in the French Alps, aiming to identify what influences market, socio-political, and community acceptance. This study adopts a mixed-method approach, combining spatial autocorrelation analysis, logistic regression, random forest modelling, and qualitative assessment of environmental impact reports, we explored the spatial patterns of project submission and approval. Market acceptance is primarily associated with economic factors: solar irradiance, slope, grid proximity, and land costs. Developers tend to avoid agricultural areas given regulatory constraints under the Mountain law, and rather favour forested or artificial surfaces. In contrast, socio-political acceptance is determined almost exclusively by environmental protection, with biophysical integrity being the only significant predictor of project approval, whereas socio-demographic characteristics of local populations show no measurable influence. Both submitted and approved projects display significant spatial clustering, with 51 % of recent projects (since 2020) concentrated in suitable areas representing just 9 % of the territory. This reflects a learning process among developers, who increasingly target areas with higher approval rates. While this suggests opportunities for targeted spatial planning via designated acceleration areas, it also raises concerns about energy justice and uneven community burdens. The spatial mismatch between market and socio-political acceptance criteria, and the dominance of environmental over social considerations, highlight the need for more transparent and inclusive permitting processes.
{"title":"Mismatch between where solar projects are proposed and approved: the case of PV acceptance in the French Alps","authors":"Caroline Bottu , Eric F. Lambin","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115103","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115103","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As many countries worldwide accelerate renewable energy deployment to meet climate targets, understanding the factors shaping acceptance of solar PV projects is essential for effective spatial planning. This study examined 236 utility-scale solar projects (>1 MWp) across various development stages in the French Alps, aiming to identify what influences market, socio-political, and community acceptance. This study adopts a mixed-method approach, combining spatial autocorrelation analysis, logistic regression, random forest modelling, and qualitative assessment of environmental impact reports, we explored the spatial patterns of project submission and approval. Market acceptance is primarily associated with economic factors: solar irradiance, slope, grid proximity, and land costs. Developers tend to avoid agricultural areas given regulatory constraints under the Mountain law, and rather favour forested or artificial surfaces. In contrast, socio-political acceptance is determined almost exclusively by environmental protection, with biophysical integrity being the only significant predictor of project approval, whereas socio-demographic characteristics of local populations show no measurable influence. Both submitted and approved projects display significant spatial clustering, with 51 % of recent projects (since 2020) concentrated in suitable areas representing just 9 % of the territory. This reflects a learning process among developers, who increasingly target areas with higher approval rates. While this suggests opportunities for targeted spatial planning via designated acceleration areas, it also raises concerns about energy justice and uneven community burdens. The spatial mismatch between market and socio-political acceptance criteria, and the dominance of environmental over social considerations, highlight the need for more transparent and inclusive permitting processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115103"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115100
Kanchan Kumar Sen , Shamal Chandra Karmaker , Bidyut Baran Saha
Energy security has emerged as a central policy challenge as climate change intensifies alongside rising energy demand and increasing geopolitical uncertainty. For developed economies, ensuring secure energy systems while advancing environmental sustainability requires not only technological progress but also effective governance and regulatory frameworks. Despite this importance, empirical evidence on how governance quality influences energy security through environmental policy remains limited, and existing studies largely rely on traditional econometric approaches that struggle to capture non-linear dynamics. To address these gaps, this study examines the role of good governance in enhancing sustainable energy security in OECD countries, with a particular focus on the mediating role of environmental policy stringency. By applying both machine learning and econometric approaches, the study explored a positive and significant impact of good governance on energy security, highlighting that stronger governance enhances the resilience, efficiency, and sustainability of national energy systems. The study also found that environmental policy stringency acts as a key indirect channel through which governance quality enhances energy security. This highlights the importance of strong institutions and well-enforced environmental regulations for improving energy security in developed economies. From a policy perspective, these findings emphasize the value of integrating governance reforms with strong environmental policies. These insights offer practical guidance for policymakers aiming to strengthen energy resilience while promoting decarbonization and sustainable development goals.
{"title":"Good governance and energy security in OECD countries: The mediating role of environmental policy stringency","authors":"Kanchan Kumar Sen , Shamal Chandra Karmaker , Bidyut Baran Saha","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115100","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115100","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy security has emerged as a central policy challenge as climate change intensifies alongside rising energy demand and increasing geopolitical uncertainty. For developed economies, ensuring secure energy systems while advancing environmental sustainability requires not only technological progress but also effective governance and regulatory frameworks. Despite this importance, empirical evidence on how governance quality influences energy security through environmental policy remains limited, and existing studies largely rely on traditional econometric approaches that struggle to capture non-linear dynamics. To address these gaps, this study examines the role of good governance in enhancing sustainable energy security in OECD countries, with a particular focus on the mediating role of environmental policy stringency. By applying both machine learning and econometric approaches, the study explored a positive and significant impact of good governance on energy security, highlighting that stronger governance enhances the resilience, efficiency, and sustainability of national energy systems. The study also found that environmental policy stringency acts as a key indirect channel through which governance quality enhances energy security. This highlights the importance of strong institutions and well-enforced environmental regulations for improving energy security in developed economies. From a policy perspective, these findings emphasize the value of integrating governance reforms with strong environmental policies. These insights offer practical guidance for policymakers aiming to strengthen energy resilience while promoting decarbonization and sustainable development goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115100"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-21DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115102
Franco Sancho-Esper , Carla Rodriguez-Sanchez , María José Miquel-Romero , Francisco José Sarabia-Sánchez
The social acceptance of energy transition (ET) policies is essential to ensure their legitimacy and effectiveness. Drawing on cognitive and affective frameworks, this study examines how trust in government, emotional responses, and perceptions of procedural fairness shape young people's acceptance of ET policies in Spain, a country with high energy dependence and ambitious decarbonization targets within the European Union's climate agenda. Using a mixed-methods design combining structural equation modeling (CB-SEM) and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), we analyze data from 1707 respondents aged 18 to 30. The CB-SEM results show that trust in government enhances perceived procedural fairness, which in turn strongly predicts policy acceptance. Trust also increases positive emotions, although it does not significantly reduce negative emotions. Emotions influence fairness perceptions, with positive emotions strengthening these perceptions and negative emotions weakening them. Notably, our results reveal that positive emotions directly increase the acceptance of ET policies, whereas negative emotions do not have a significant effect. This finding suggests that general discussions about ET may evoke responses that are more hopeful than fearful. FsQCA reveals multiple causal pathways to acceptance, typically involving combinations of fairness, trust, and positive emotions. Conversely, the causal pathways leading to non-acceptance consistently involve the absence of fairness and positive emotions. Gender differences emerge, with women proving more likely to support ET policies, especially when trust and fairness are present. These findings deepen understanding of the psychological mechanisms behind policy acceptance and offer insights for designing participatory, procedurally fair, and emotionally aligned strategies to advance ET.
{"title":"Two roads to understanding youth acceptance of energy transition policies: A symmetrical and asymmetrical perspective","authors":"Franco Sancho-Esper , Carla Rodriguez-Sanchez , María José Miquel-Romero , Francisco José Sarabia-Sánchez","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115102","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115102","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The social acceptance of energy transition (ET) policies is essential to ensure their legitimacy and effectiveness. Drawing on cognitive and affective frameworks, this study examines how trust in government, emotional responses, and perceptions of procedural fairness shape young people's acceptance of ET policies in Spain, a country with high energy dependence and ambitious decarbonization targets within the European Union's climate agenda. Using a mixed-methods design combining structural equation modeling (CB-SEM) and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), we analyze data from 1707 respondents aged 18 to 30. The CB-SEM results show that trust in government enhances perceived procedural fairness, which in turn strongly predicts policy acceptance. Trust also increases positive emotions, although it does not significantly reduce negative emotions. Emotions influence fairness perceptions, with positive emotions strengthening these perceptions and negative emotions weakening them. Notably, our results reveal that positive emotions directly increase the acceptance of ET policies, whereas negative emotions do not have a significant effect. This finding suggests that general discussions about ET may evoke responses that are more hopeful than fearful. FsQCA reveals multiple causal pathways to acceptance, typically involving combinations of fairness, trust, and positive emotions. Conversely, the causal pathways leading to non-acceptance consistently involve the absence of fairness and positive emotions. Gender differences emerge, with women proving more likely to support ET policies, especially when trust and fairness are present. These findings deepen understanding of the psychological mechanisms behind policy acceptance and offer insights for designing participatory, procedurally fair, and emotionally aligned strategies to advance ET.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115102"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-21DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115084
Lu Chen, Yingcheng Wang
Based on five waves of data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) between 2011 and 2020, we employ a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to examine the causal effect of the Targeted Poverty Alleviation (TPA) policy on households’ adoption of clean cooking fuels. The results show that the TPA policy significantly increased the likelihood of clean fuel use, particularly electricity, among targeted poor households. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that the policy effects are more pronounced in southern regions, in communities with higher poverty levels, among households with Internet access, and among larger households. Mechanism analyses suggest that the TPA policy promotes clean cooking fuel adoption primarily by improving household income levels and encouraging participation in off-farm employment. Further analysis shows that while absolute energy expenditures rose, their share in household income declined, indicating improved affordability. Furthermore, we find that the TPA policy can enhances subjective well-being by facilitating the transition to cleaner cooking fuels. These findings suggest that comprehensive poverty alleviation programmes such as the TPA policy can play an important role in accelerating household energy transitions.
{"title":"Does targeted poverty alleviation promote the adoption of clean cooking fuels? Evidence from a quasi-experimental study in China","authors":"Lu Chen, Yingcheng Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115084","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115084","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on five waves of data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) between 2011 and 2020, we employ a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to examine the causal effect of the Targeted Poverty Alleviation (TPA) policy on households’ adoption of clean cooking fuels. The results show that the TPA policy significantly increased the likelihood of clean fuel use, particularly electricity, among targeted poor households. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that the policy effects are more pronounced in southern regions, in communities with higher poverty levels, among households with Internet access, and among larger households. Mechanism analyses suggest that the TPA policy promotes clean cooking fuel adoption primarily by improving household income levels and encouraging participation in off-farm employment. Further analysis shows that while absolute energy expenditures rose, their share in household income declined, indicating improved affordability. Furthermore, we find that the TPA policy can enhances subjective well-being by facilitating the transition to cleaner cooking fuels. These findings suggest that comprehensive poverty alleviation programmes such as the TPA policy can play an important role in accelerating household energy transitions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115084"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-21DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115086
Yuanming Li , Bei Li , Shuangxing Liu , Ming Xue , Xingchun Li , Peng Wu
Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) technology is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality, but high costs and uncertainty lead to persistent underinvestment, making coordinated investment between carbon source and sink sectors a potential solution. This study considers carbon source enterprises and carbon sink enterprises as cooperative investors under uncertain oil prices and carbon trading prices, and develops an integrated model that combines a two-player real-options framework with an evolutionary game to analyze multi-agent CCUS investment decisions and technology diffusion under differentiated subsidy policies. The results show that CCUS diffusion exhibits pronounced nonlinear and oscillatory dynamics, with initial conditions critically shaping its pathway: lower initial adoption probabilities delay convergence and amplify fluctuations, especially for capital-intensive coal-fired power plants facing high costs and uncertain returns. The revenue–cost allocation mechanism displays critical threshold effects: there exists an interior range of benefit–cost sharing that supports relatively high and stable diffusion, whereas excessive revenue claims by power plants or overly high cost-sharing, while raising average diffusion, inhibit oil companies’ participation and induce more pronounced long-term volatility. Differentiated subsidy policies also have heterogeneous effects: initial investment subsidies lower entry barriers, accelerate diffusion and dampen volatility; clean electricity price subsidies increase adoption levels but tend to magnify cyclical fluctuations; and CO2-EOR tax credits optimize the revenue structure of the sink sector and significantly promote diffusion towards a high and stable state. These findings provide a model-based rationale for designing a graduated incentive subsidy scheme, implementing a dual-threshold revenue–cost mechanism, and prioritising regional CCUS projects with scale effects.
{"title":"CCUS technology diffusion and multi-agent investment behavior under policy incentives","authors":"Yuanming Li , Bei Li , Shuangxing Liu , Ming Xue , Xingchun Li , Peng Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115086","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115086","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) technology is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality, but high costs and uncertainty lead to persistent underinvestment, making coordinated investment between carbon source and sink sectors a potential solution. This study considers carbon source enterprises and carbon sink enterprises as cooperative investors under uncertain oil prices and carbon trading prices, and develops an integrated model that combines a two-player real-options framework with an evolutionary game to analyze multi-agent CCUS investment decisions and technology diffusion under differentiated subsidy policies. The results show that CCUS diffusion exhibits pronounced nonlinear and oscillatory dynamics, with initial conditions critically shaping its pathway: lower initial adoption probabilities delay convergence and amplify fluctuations, especially for capital-intensive coal-fired power plants facing high costs and uncertain returns. The revenue–cost allocation mechanism displays critical threshold effects: there exists an interior range of benefit–cost sharing that supports relatively high and stable diffusion, whereas excessive revenue claims by power plants or overly high cost-sharing, while raising average diffusion, inhibit oil companies’ participation and induce more pronounced long-term volatility. Differentiated subsidy policies also have heterogeneous effects: initial investment subsidies lower entry barriers, accelerate diffusion and dampen volatility; clean electricity price subsidies increase adoption levels but tend to magnify cyclical fluctuations; and CO<sub>2</sub>-EOR tax credits optimize the revenue structure of the sink sector and significantly promote diffusion towards a high and stable state. These findings provide a model-based rationale for designing a graduated incentive subsidy scheme, implementing a dual-threshold revenue–cost mechanism, and prioritising regional CCUS projects with scale effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115086"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The energy transition towards renewable sources has become a key objective on the agenda of numerous nations, increasing interest in various energy generation alternatives, such as photovoltaic technologies, where domestic consumers play a crucial role. Understanding their adoption is critical to global agendas. This study investigated whether comprehension of electricity bills affects the adoption intention of solar photovoltaic energy. The research assesses seven factors that influence the adoption of solar panel systems (SPS): perceived costs, environmental concern, perceived quality and trust in the energy provider, and cognitive biases, including risk preferences, social influence bias, and inertia bias. This analysis employs Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) and Multi-Group Analysis (MGA) techniques with a data sample of 348 respondents. The results revealed that all factors, except trust in the utility provider, had a significant impact on the adoption intention of SPS. The main finding indicates that the level of influence of the studied factors on the adoption intention of SPS was significantly moderated by comprehension of electricity bills. In particular, we found that individuals with a high degree of comprehension of their electricity bills are more influenced by environmental awareness and service quality rather than perceived costs or biases such as social influence. Conversely, those who do not understand their electricity bills are primarily guided by social pressures or cost burdens which can slow down the adoption of SPS.
{"title":"The crucial role of electricity bill comprehension in consumer intention of solar panel systems adoption","authors":"Cecilia Castro-Cárdenas , Edgardo Arturo Ayala Gaytán , Teofilo Ozuna (Jr.)","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115064","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115064","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The energy transition towards renewable sources has become a key objective on the agenda of numerous nations, increasing interest in various energy generation alternatives, such as photovoltaic technologies, where domestic consumers play a crucial role. Understanding their adoption is critical to global agendas. This study investigated whether comprehension of electricity bills affects the adoption intention of solar photovoltaic energy. The research assesses seven factors that influence the adoption of solar panel systems (SPS): perceived costs, environmental concern, perceived quality and trust in the energy provider, and cognitive biases, including risk preferences, social influence bias, and inertia bias. This analysis employs Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) and Multi-Group Analysis (MGA) techniques with a data sample of 348 respondents. The results revealed that all factors, except trust in the utility provider, had a significant impact on the adoption intention of SPS. The main finding indicates that the level of influence of the studied factors on the adoption intention of SPS was significantly moderated by comprehension of electricity bills. In particular, we found that individuals with a high degree of comprehension of their electricity bills are more influenced by environmental awareness and service quality rather than perceived costs or biases such as social influence. Conversely, those who do not understand their electricity bills are primarily guided by social pressures or cost burdens which can slow down the adoption of SPS.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 115064"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146022419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Disentangling the relationship between energy security, climate policy uncertainty(CPU), and climate transition risk index (CTRI) is essential to formulating integrated strategies for energy resilience and climate mitigation. This study conducts static and dynamic analyses of the spillover relationships among the three variables, identifying their transmission paths and changes in dominant factors across different time scales, incorporating a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model, and multi-dimensional and mixed-frequency spillover analysis. The results shown that: (1) China's energy security exhibit significant volatility between 2009 and 2020, which is confirmed through a comparative analysis with the CSI energy index; (2) CPU acts as a net transmitter, dominating system volatility, while energy security and climate transition risk function as net receivers, passively influenced by policy changes and external shocks; (3) short-term spillovers are limited, while medium-term spillovers become increasingly pronounced, reflecting stronger inter-variable interactions; and (4) notably, although transition risk is policy-driven, its influence tends to lag behind immediate policy effects, continuing to affect the system over an extended period. This study offers empirical evidence to support the coordinated advancement of energy security and climate goals.
{"title":"Energy security, climate policy uncertainty, and climate transition risk: A mixed-frequency multi-dimensional spillover analysis","authors":"Xinfei Ge , Dequn Zhou , Liangpeng Wu , Qingyuan Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115091","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115091","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disentangling the relationship between energy security, climate policy uncertainty(CPU), and climate transition risk index (CTRI) is essential to formulating integrated strategies for energy resilience and climate mitigation. This study conducts static and dynamic analyses of the spillover relationships among the three variables, identifying their transmission paths and changes in dominant factors across different time scales, incorporating a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model, and multi-dimensional and mixed-frequency spillover analysis. The results shown that: (1) China's energy security exhibit significant volatility between 2009 and 2020, which is confirmed through a comparative analysis with the CSI energy index; (2) CPU acts as a net transmitter, dominating system volatility, while energy security and climate transition risk function as net receivers, passively influenced by policy changes and external shocks; (3) short-term spillovers are limited, while medium-term spillovers become increasingly pronounced, reflecting stronger inter-variable interactions; and (4) notably, although transition risk is policy-driven, its influence tends to lag behind immediate policy effects, continuing to affect the system over an extended period. This study offers empirical evidence to support the coordinated advancement of energy security and climate goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115091"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146001769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The global transition to cleaner energy systems requires not only technological advancement but also a deeper understanding of the behavioral drivers that shape individual adoption decisions. While prior research on solar energy adoption have largely focused on financial, infrastructural, and technical determinants, behavioral and psychosocial factors remain underexplored in the Indian context, limiting effective policy design. This study addresses this gap by investigating the determinants of attitudes and behavioral intentions toward solar energy adoption in India using an extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) framework. The model integrates traditional TPB constructs with contextual variables, such as perceived trust, cost, benefits, environmental concern, and government initiatives, to provide a more comprehensive behavioral explanation relevant for emerging economies. In this study, solar energy adoption refers specifically to individuals' or households’ intention to adopt household-scale solar technologies, particularly residential rooftop PV systems, solar water heaters etc. Data from 408 respondents, including students from solar training programmes and professionals working in certified solar technology firms from different states such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh, were analyzed using PLS-SEM. Findings indicate that perceived benefits, trust, environmental concern, and government initiatives significantly influence attitudes, while attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control strongly predict behavioral intention. Notably, perceived cost does not significantly affect attitude, suggesting that value-based motivations and institutional trust may outweigh financial considerations. The model explains 78 % of the variance in attitude and 50.3 % in behavioral intention, offering actionable insights for designing socially grounded and behaviourally informed solar energy policies in India.
{"title":"Behavioral determinants of solar energy adoption in India: Insights for policy from an extended TPB framework","authors":"Kailash Kumar Sahu , Tushar Ranjan Sahoo , Indu Santosh , Shivani Guru , Rishi Kant Chaudhary","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115079","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115079","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global transition to cleaner energy systems requires not only technological advancement but also a deeper understanding of the behavioral drivers that shape individual adoption decisions. While prior research on solar energy adoption have largely focused on financial, infrastructural, and technical determinants, behavioral and psychosocial factors remain underexplored in the Indian context, limiting effective policy design. This study addresses this gap by investigating the determinants of attitudes and behavioral intentions toward solar energy adoption in India using an extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) framework. The model integrates traditional TPB constructs with contextual variables, such as perceived trust, cost, benefits, environmental concern, and government initiatives, to provide a more comprehensive behavioral explanation relevant for emerging economies. In this study, solar energy adoption refers specifically to individuals' or households’ intention to adopt household-scale solar technologies, particularly residential rooftop PV systems, solar water heaters etc. Data from 408 respondents, including students from solar training programmes and professionals working in certified solar technology firms from different states such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh, were analyzed using PLS-SEM. Findings indicate that perceived benefits, trust, environmental concern, and government initiatives significantly influence attitudes, while attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control strongly predict behavioral intention. Notably, perceived cost does not significantly affect attitude, suggesting that value-based motivations and institutional trust may outweigh financial considerations. The model explains 78 % of the variance in attitude and 50.3 % in behavioral intention, offering actionable insights for designing socially grounded and behaviourally informed solar energy policies in India.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 115079"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146022418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-19DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115083
Guanghao Wang , Hung Xuan Do , Chenghao Liu , Erwann Sbai , Emilson Silva
The Russia-Ukraine war, escalating in February 2022, severely disrupted European energy markets. This conflict significantly increases energy security concerns and drives costs to unprecedented levels. This study investigates the evolving roles of renewable and fossil energy in mitigating this insecurity. We introduce a novel War-Induced Energy Intensity (WEI) index, constructed from over 507,574 news reports and tweets using large language models (LLMs). Our employed LLMs enable us to apply a scoring framework that precisely captures the intensity of fossil energy induced by the war. Validation tests across 24 European countries confirm that our WEI outperforms existing geopolitical risk indices in explaining wholesale electricity market dynamics. A structural break test identifies a significant market shift in early 2022, coinciding with the conflict's outbreak. This provides a statistical basis for our pre- and post-conflict analysis, which reveals a reversal of roles. Before 2022, fossil fuels played a stabilizing role in electricity markets. After the conflict began, their supply disruptions exacerbated market risks. In contrast, renewable energy sources – particularly wind, solar, and hydropower – emerged as key stabilizers, significantly reducing market instability. These findings underscore the growing importance of renewables in ensuring energy security during geopolitical crises.
{"title":"Shifting roles of renewable and fossil energy in the ENTSO-E countries: Evidence from a novel war-induced energy intensity index","authors":"Guanghao Wang , Hung Xuan Do , Chenghao Liu , Erwann Sbai , Emilson Silva","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115083","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115083","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Russia-Ukraine war, escalating in February 2022, severely disrupted European energy markets. This conflict significantly increases energy security concerns and drives costs to unprecedented levels. This study investigates the evolving roles of renewable and fossil energy in mitigating this insecurity. We introduce a novel War-Induced Energy Intensity (WEI) index, constructed from over 507,574 news reports and tweets using large language models (LLMs). Our employed LLMs enable us to apply a scoring framework that precisely captures the intensity of fossil energy induced by the war. Validation tests across 24 European countries confirm that our WEI outperforms existing geopolitical risk indices in explaining wholesale electricity market dynamics. A structural break test identifies a significant market shift in early 2022, coinciding with the conflict's outbreak. This provides a statistical basis for our pre- and post-conflict analysis, which reveals a reversal of roles. Before 2022, fossil fuels played a stabilizing role in electricity markets. After the conflict began, their supply disruptions exacerbated market risks. In contrast, renewable energy sources – particularly wind, solar, and hydropower – emerged as key stabilizers, significantly reducing market instability. These findings underscore the growing importance of renewables in ensuring energy security during geopolitical crises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 115083"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146022417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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