Energy Policy最新文献_第4页

The interaction between energy transition, pollution, recycling, and ecological footprint: Lessons from European countries 能源转型、污染、循环利用与生态足迹的互动：来自欧洲国家的经验

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115136

José Alberto Fuinhas , Zakir Khan , Matheus Koengkan , Hussain Muhammad Irshad , Hélde Domingos

This study examines how the energy transition, pollution, recycling, and ecological footprint interact across 24 EU countries. Using annual data from 1996 to 2022, we apply panel vector autoregression (PVAR), panel dynamic OLS (PDOLS), and panel fully modified OLS (PFMOLS) to identify dynamic linkages, long-run relationships, and causality. The energy transition is the primary driver of reductions in carbon emissions and the ecological footprint. Recycling effects are conditional: benefits are most significant when recycling systems are powered by renewable energy and supported by efficient infrastructure, but pressures can rise when recycling relies on fossil-based energy. Results also show feedback dynamics in which higher emissions increase ecological pressure, prompting regulatory and behavioral responses that can subsequently reduce emissions and ecological degradation. Bidirectional causality between recycling and the ecological footprint indicates that gains from a circular economy depend on the energy mix and operational efficiency. Expanding renewable energy is essential for EU sustainability and decarbonization and should be coordinated with circular-economy strategies. Policy priorities include accelerating the integration of renewables; electrifying and digitalizing recycling systems; strengthening market-based instruments (e.g., EU ETS and CBAM); and complementing production-based measures with consumption-based indicators. An integrated approach that supports innovation and behavioral change, while accounting for diverse transition stages across member states, is crucial for sustainable development and environmental resilience.

本研究考察了24个欧盟国家的能源转型、污染、回收和生态足迹是如何相互作用的。利用1996年至2022年的年度数据，我们应用面板向量自回归（PVAR）、面板动态OLS （pols）和面板完全修正OLS （PFMOLS）来识别动态联系、长期关系和因果关系。能源转型是减少碳排放和生态足迹的主要驱动力。回收效果是有条件的：当回收系统由可再生能源提供动力并得到高效基础设施的支持时，效益最为显著，但当回收依赖化石能源时，压力可能会上升。研究结果还显示了反馈动态，其中更高的排放增加了生态压力，促使监管和行为反应，从而减少排放和生态退化。循环利用与生态足迹之间的双向因果关系表明，循环经济的收益取决于能源结构和运营效率。扩大可再生能源对欧盟的可持续发展和脱碳至关重要，应与循环经济战略相协调。政策重点包括加速可再生能源的整合；回收系统电气化和数字化；加强基于市场的工具（如欧盟碳排放交易体系和碳定价机制）；用以消费为基础的指标补充以生产为基础的措施。一种支持创新和行为改变的综合方法，同时考虑到成员国不同的过渡阶段，对可持续发展和环境复原力至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Promoting broad participation in CCUS system via a technical service business model and bi-level optimization with carbon trading incentives 通过技术服务商业模式和碳交易激励的双层优化，促进CCUS体系的广泛参与

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115099

Peng Wu , Sha Xiao , Wen Wang , Hong Wang , Shansen Wei

Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) is widely recognized as a critical technology for achieving carbon neutrality. However, large-scale deployment still faces two key challenges: the spatial mismatch between CO₂ sources and storage sites and the absence of sustainable business models that can incentivize broad enterprises' participation. To address these challenges, this paper proposed a bi-level planning framework for CCUS cluster optimization, introducing a business model where a large oil and gas company provides integrated technical service to individual emitters. A case study demonstrates that carbon trading policies can effectively promote CCUS involvement and improve system viability. The major results indicate that higher carbon costs increase the proportion of service fees, rising from 17.91 % to 31.34 %. This modification enhances their resilience to variations in oil prices. Participation shows a threshold-based, non-linear response, with higher prices improving investment robustness and favoring dedicated pipelines over infrastructure reuse. Our findings suggest that, along with carbon pricing, early-stage cost reductions are critical for scalable CCUS deployment.

碳捕集、利用与封存（CCUS）是实现碳中和的一项重要技术。然而，大规模部署仍然面临两个关键挑战：二氧化碳源和储存地点之间的空间不匹配，以及缺乏能够激励广泛企业参与的可持续商业模式。为了应对这些挑战，本文提出了CCUS集群优化的双层规划框架，引入了大型油气公司为单个排放者提供综合技术服务的商业模式。案例研究表明，碳交易政策可以有效地促进CCUS的参与，提高系统的可行性。主要结果表明，碳成本的增加增加了服务费用的比重，从17.91%上升到31.34%。这种调整增强了它们对油价变化的适应能力。参与表现出基于阈值的非线性响应，较高的价格提高了投资稳健性，并且有利于专用管道而不是基础设施的重用。我们的研究结果表明，与碳定价一样，早期阶段的成本降低对于可扩展的CCUS部署至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Two roads to understanding youth acceptance of energy transition policies: A symmetrical and asymmetrical perspective 了解青年对能源转型政策接受程度的两条途径：对称视角和不对称视角

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115102

Franco Sancho-Esper , Carla Rodriguez-Sanchez , María José Miquel-Romero , Francisco José Sarabia-Sánchez

The social acceptance of energy transition (ET) policies is essential to ensure their legitimacy and effectiveness. Drawing on cognitive and affective frameworks, this study examines how trust in government, emotional responses, and perceptions of procedural fairness shape young people's acceptance of ET policies in Spain, a country with high energy dependence and ambitious decarbonization targets within the European Union's climate agenda. Using a mixed-methods design combining structural equation modeling (CB-SEM) and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), we analyze data from 1707 respondents aged 18 to 30. The CB-SEM results show that trust in government enhances perceived procedural fairness, which in turn strongly predicts policy acceptance. Trust also increases positive emotions, although it does not significantly reduce negative emotions. Emotions influence fairness perceptions, with positive emotions strengthening these perceptions and negative emotions weakening them. Notably, our results reveal that positive emotions directly increase the acceptance of ET policies, whereas negative emotions do not have a significant effect. This finding suggests that general discussions about ET may evoke responses that are more hopeful than fearful. FsQCA reveals multiple causal pathways to acceptance, typically involving combinations of fairness, trust, and positive emotions. Conversely, the causal pathways leading to non-acceptance consistently involve the absence of fairness and positive emotions. Gender differences emerge, with women proving more likely to support ET policies, especially when trust and fairness are present. These findings deepen understanding of the psychological mechanisms behind policy acceptance and offer insights for designing participatory, procedurally fair, and emotionally aligned strategies to advance ET.

社会对能源转型（ET）政策的接受是确保其合法性和有效性的关键。借助认知和情感框架，本研究考察了西班牙年轻人对政府的信任、情绪反应和对程序公平的看法如何影响他们对ET政策的接受程度。西班牙是一个高度依赖能源、在欧盟气候议程中有雄心勃勃的脱碳目标的国家。采用结构方程模型（CB-SEM）和模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA）相结合的混合方法设计，分析了1707名年龄在18至30岁之间的受访者的数据。CB-SEM结果表明，对政府的信任增强了程序公平的感知，这反过来又强烈地预测了政策的接受程度。信任也能增加积极情绪，尽管它不能显著减少消极情绪。情绪影响公平感知，积极情绪强化公平感知，消极情绪削弱公平感知。值得注意的是，我们的研究结果表明，积极情绪直接增加了环境政策的接受度，而消极情绪没有显著的影响。这一发现表明，关于外星人的一般性讨论可能会引起更多希望而不是恐惧的反应。FsQCA揭示了接受的多种因果途径，通常涉及公平、信任和积极情绪的组合。相反，导致不接受的因果途径始终涉及缺乏公平和积极情绪。性别差异出现了，女性更有可能支持ET政策，尤其是在信任和公平存在的情况下。这些发现加深了对政策接受背后的心理机制的理解，并为设计参与性、程序公平和情感一致的战略以推进环境教育提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

Critical success factors for floating photovoltaic (FPV) deployment: Insights from Türkiye's renewable energy sector 浮动光伏（FPV）部署的关键成功因素：来自<s:1> rkiye公司可再生能源部门的见解

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115129

Beliz Ozorhon, Nevzat Can Yerlikaya

As countries seek pathways toward decarbonization, floating photovoltaic (FPV) systems are increasingly recognized as a promising renewable energy technology that optimizes land use while reducing water losses and enhancing energy security. Despite rapid global interest, most FPV research emphasizes technical design and site selection, leaving institutional, policy, and stakeholder-related dimensions underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by applying a Critical Success Factor (CSF) approach to assess the enabling conditions for FPV deployment in Türkiye. A structured survey of 90 professionals from academia, government, and industry was conducted and analyzed through factor analysis, revealing three key dimensions—Energy Optimization, Community Engagement, and Economic Sustainability—that together explain nearly 60 % of the variance in stakeholder perceptions. Nine CSFs received mean importance ratings above 4.0, with Site Selection for Maximizing Energy Potential ranked highest (mean = 4.40). A strong consensus across stakeholder groups indicates systemic alignment in priorities for FPV expansion. These findings demonstrate that FPV success depends not only on technical feasibility but also on governance clarity, financial viability, and social acceptance. The study provides an evidence-based decision-support framework to guide policymakers, regulators, and investors in accelerating FPV adoption in emerging markets.

随着各国寻求脱碳途径，浮动光伏（FPV）系统越来越被认为是一种有前途的可再生能源技术，可以优化土地利用，同时减少水资源损失，增强能源安全。尽管全球对FPV的兴趣迅速增加，但大多数FPV研究强调的是技术设计和选址，而没有对制度、政策和利益相关者相关的维度进行充分的探索。本文通过应用关键成功因子（CSF）方法来评估 rkiye地区FPV部署的有利条件，从而解决了这一差距。对来自学术界、政府和工业界的90名专业人士进行了结构化调查，并通过因素分析进行了分析，揭示了三个关键维度——能源优化、社区参与和经济可持续性——这三个维度共同解释了利益相关者看法中近60%的差异。9个CSFs的平均重要性评级高于4.0，其中能源潜力最大化选址排名最高（平均= 4.40）。利益相关者群体之间的强烈共识表明，FPV扩展的优先事项具有系统性一致性。这些发现表明，FPV的成功不仅取决于技术可行性，还取决于治理清晰度、财务可行性和社会接受度。该研究提供了一个基于证据的决策支持框架，以指导政策制定者、监管机构和投资者加速新兴市场采用FPV。

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引用次数: 0

Special economic zones and energy poverty in Africa: spillover effects beyond their initial purpose 非洲的经济特区和能源贫困：超出其最初目的的溢出效应

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115104

Zhonghang Gong , Linda Zanfack Tiague

Energy poverty is both a scourge and a development imperative in Africa, where only a small proportion of the population has reliable access to electricity. By hindering productivity, education, health, and economic inclusion, it remains one of the main obstacles to sustainable development. While numerous studies have examined its determinants, the potential role of special economic zones (SEZs) remains largely unexplored. Initially designed to attract foreign direct investment, stimulate industrialization, and promote job creation, SEZs nevertheless generate positive spillovers that can improve access to energy. The objective of this article is therefore to study the effect of SEZs on energy poverty, using a panel of 53 African countries over the period 2000–2022. The empirical strategy uses several estimation techniques, including the instrumental variables approach based on heteroscedasticity proposed by Lewbel (2012). The results indicate that the presence and expansion of SEZs contribute significantly to reducing energy poverty in African countries. This effect is confirmed by several robustness tests, including different model specifications, generalized method of moments estimation, the Driscoll-Kraay approach, and the use of an external instrumental variable. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis shows that industrial zones have a greater impact on reducing energy poverty, followed by technology parks. Finally, mediation analysis reveals that this impact is primarily mediated by FDI attractiveness, job creation, and technology diffusion. These results underscore the importance of integrating SEZs into energy poverty reduction strategies in Africa, optimizing their effects beyond their initial objectives.

在非洲，能源贫困既是一种灾难，也是发展的必要条件。在非洲，只有一小部分人口能够可靠地获得电力。它阻碍了生产力、教育、卫生和经济包容，仍然是可持续发展的主要障碍之一。虽然有许多研究考察了其决定因素，但经济特区（SEZs）的潜在作用在很大程度上仍未得到探索。经济特区最初旨在吸引外国直接投资、刺激工业化和促进创造就业机会，但却产生了积极的溢出效应，可以改善能源获取。因此，本文的目标是研究经济特区对能源贫困的影响，使用的是2000年至2022年期间53个非洲国家的面板。实证策略使用了几种估计技术，包括Lewbel（2012）提出的基于异方差的工具变量方法。研究结果表明，经济特区的存在和扩大对减少非洲国家的能源贫困有显著贡献。这一效应通过几个稳健性测试得到证实，包括不同的模型规格、广义矩估计方法、Driscoll-Kraay方法和外部工具变量的使用。此外，异质性分析表明，工业园区对降低能源贫困的影响更大，其次是科技园区。最后，中介分析表明，这种影响主要由FDI吸引力、就业创造和技术扩散所中介。这些结果强调了将经济特区纳入非洲能源减贫战略的重要性，优化其在最初目标之外的效果。

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引用次数: 0

Do all roads lead to Rome? Assessing the effectiveness of governance strategies for energy justice 条条大路通罗马吗？评估能源公正治理战略的有效性

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115089

Kees van der Wel, Sanne Akerboom

While the ‘promised land’ of clean, affordable, and abundant energy is in reach for some, it is but a distant dream for others. Socioeconomically disadvantaged groups often do not have the means and opportunities to enter this ‘land of milk and honey’. In response to growing awareness of this issue, the call for a more just, inclusive, and fair energy transition has found its way to policy agendas. To implement this energy justice agenda, policy-makers must decide on a governance strategy – i.e., a plan of action outlining who should do what, and how. The field of public administration offers three such strategies: rowing, steering, and serving. However, no study has yet examined the strengths and weaknesses of these different strategies in achieving energy justice, leaving policymakers without guidance on how to choose between them. To address this gap, we evaluated two initiatives for each strategy using an assessment framework with five criteria based on energy justice literature. Our analysis revealed three key patterns: (i) each strategy has its own strengths and weaknesses for realizing a just transition, (ii) there are synergies and trade-offs between the criteria, and (iii) each strategy has broad but seemingly superficial support. These findings suggest that no single strategy is perfect, and none will become perfect due to the inherent trade-offs between criteria. However, hybrid strategies that use the strengths of one strategy to offset another strategy's weaknesses could offer an effective approach to pursuing energy justice.

虽然清洁、廉价和丰富能源的“应许之地”对一些人来说触手可及，但对另一些人来说，这只是一个遥远的梦想。社会经济上处于不利地位的群体往往没有进入这片“牛奶和蜂蜜之地”的手段和机会。随着人们对这一问题的认识日益提高，对更加公正、包容和公平的能源转型的呼吁已被提上了政策议程。为了实施这一能源正义议程，政策制定者必须决定一项治理战略——即一项行动计划，概述谁应该做什么，以及如何做。公共行政领域提供了三种这样的策略：划船、掌舵和服务。然而，目前还没有研究考察这些不同战略在实现能源公平方面的优缺点，这使得政策制定者在如何在它们之间进行选择方面缺乏指导。为了解决这一差距，我们使用基于能源公正文献的五个标准的评估框架评估了每个战略的两个举措。我们的分析揭示了三个关键模式：(i)每个战略都有自己的优势和弱点，以实现公正的过渡；（ii）标准之间存在协同效应和权衡；（iii）每个战略都有广泛但看似肤浅的支持。这些发现表明，没有单一的策略是完美的，由于标准之间的内在权衡，没有一个策略会变得完美。然而，利用一种战略的优势来抵消另一种战略的弱点的混合战略可能是追求能源公平的有效途径。

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引用次数: 0

A Co-optimised framework for combined electricity and emission markets with coordinated demand response and ancillary Services: A case study of the Thai power system 具有协调需求响应和辅助服务的电力和排放市场联合优化框架：泰国电力系统的案例研究

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115087

Prakaipetch Muangkhiew, Keerati Chayakulkheeree

Due to Thailand's electricity market shifting towards a low-carbon, decentralised future, an urgent need arises for integrated operational frameworks that co-optimise energy, reserves, environmental externalities, and demand-side flexibility. This paper introduces a novel market-clearing model designed explicitly for this transition. The proposed framework incorporates carbon pricing, ancillary services (AGC and SR), and an incentive-based demand response (DR) mechanism. The model supports sequential and integrated clearing strategies, uniquely allowing uncalled DR to serve as reserve capacity. The simulations reveal significant benefits of the proposed framework with the application to the IEEE 30-bus test and the 160-bus equivalent Thai power systems. Under varying carbon tax rates, DR incentive levels, and generator shortage conditions, the integrated DR scenario achieves up to 6.1 % cost savings. It substantially reduces reserve procurement costs compared to conventional generation-only cases. Crucially, utilising DR as a co-optimised reserve resource improves system adaptability without increasing emissions. These findings offer vital insights for Thailand's scalable and policy-relevant market design. The proposed framework presents a practical pathway toward economically efficient and environmentally sustainable power system operations by internalising carbon costs and leveraging flexible demand.

由于泰国电力市场向低碳、分散的未来转变，迫切需要建立综合运营框架，共同优化能源、储备、环境外部性和需求侧灵活性。本文介绍了一种新的市场出清模型，该模型是专门为这种转变而设计的。拟议的框架包括碳定价、辅助服务（AGC和SR）和基于激励的需求响应（DR）机制。该模型支持顺序和集成的清算策略，独特地允许未调用的DR作为备用容量。仿真结果表明，该框架在IEEE 30总线测试和160总线等效泰国电力系统中的应用具有显著的优势。在不同的碳税率、DR激励水平和发电机短缺条件下，综合DR方案可节省高达6.1%的成本。与传统的仅发电的情况相比，它大大降低了储备采购成本。至关重要的是，利用DR作为共同优化的储备资源，在不增加排放的情况下提高了系统适应性。这些发现为泰国可扩展和与政策相关的市场设计提供了重要见解。拟议的框架通过内部化碳成本和利用灵活需求，为实现经济高效和环境可持续的电力系统运营提供了一条切实可行的途径。

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引用次数: 0

Storage at the edge: Distributed BESS as a technical and regulatory solution for Brazil's energy transition 边缘存储：分布式BESS作为巴西能源转型的技术和监管解决方案

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115112

Guilherme Luiz Susteras, Carlos Frederico Meschini Almeida, Mauricio Barbosa de Camargo Salles

As distributed solar generation expands rapidly in Brazil, new operational challenges have emerged, including renewable curtailment and steep evening ramps in net load. Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are widely seen as a promising solution, but their effective deployment, particularly at the grid edge, depends on technical feasibility, economic viability, and regulatory alignment. This study offers an integrated, scenario-based evaluation of three BESS deployment strategies in the Brazilian National Interconnected System (SIN): (i) operating standalone BESS as independent market agents, (ii) shifting low-voltage consumption via behind-the-meter storage, and (iii) shifting distributed photovoltaic (PV) injection through co-located BESS. Drawing on real operational data from the 12-month period between July 2024 and June 2025, the analysis assesses each strategy across technical, economic, and regulatory dimensions. The study makes three key contributions: it introduces an empirical benchmark for assessing distributed storage performance in high Distributed Generation (DG) contexts using real-world data, it reveals the structural misalignments between economic incentives and system needs, particularly regarding tariff design and spot price signals, and it identifies actionable regulatory gaps that must be addressed to unlock the full potential of distributed flexibility. These findings provide practical insights for system planners, regulators, and policymakers seeking to align distributed energy resources with grid reliability and decarbonization goals.

随着分布式太阳能发电在巴西的迅速发展，新的运营挑战已经出现，包括可再生能源弃电和净负荷的陡峭夜间斜坡。电池储能系统（BESS）被广泛视为一种有前途的解决方案，但其有效部署，特别是在电网边缘，取决于技术可行性、经济可行性和监管一致性。本研究对巴西国家互联系统（SIN）中的三种BESS部署策略进行了综合的、基于场景的评估：(i)作为独立的市场代理运行独立的BESS，（ii）通过表后存储转移低压消耗，以及（iii）通过同址BESS转移分布式光伏（PV）注入。根据2024年7月至2025年6月12个月期间的实际运营数据，该分析从技术、经济和监管方面评估了每种战略。该研究做出了三个关键贡献：它引入了一个经验基准，用于使用实际数据评估高分布式发电（DG）环境下的分布式存储性能；它揭示了经济激励与系统需求之间的结构性错位，特别是在电价设计和现货价格信号方面；它确定了必须解决的可操作的监管缺口，以释放分布式灵活性的全部潜力。这些发现为寻求将分布式能源与电网可靠性和脱碳目标相结合的系统规划者、监管者和政策制定者提供了实用的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Default energy sharing rule: The case of France 默认的能源共享规则：以法国为例

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115074

Julien Jacqmin , Marco Gazel , Isac Olave-Cruz

This policy perspective critically examines the French regulatory framework that governs collective self-consumption of electricity. Under the French Energy Code, energy sharing is subject to a dynamic pro rata to consumption rule by default. We demonstrate how behavioral biases and governance structures lead members to stick to this default. Furthermore, our analysis highlights several shortcomings within this regulatory framework. First, it can create inequitable distributions when members have different consumption profiles or flexibility. Second, it may generate price signals with counterproductive effects, even if the community setting brings some new scrutiny to individual actions. Finally, this centralized approach fundamentally contradicts the decentralized ethos that underpins these initiatives. By highlighting these limitations, we aim to improve the current regulations to boost the development of collective self-consumption and better inform their members before deciding which energy sharing rule to pick.

这一政策视角批判性地审视了法国管理集体自我用电的监管框架。根据《法国能源法》，能源共享在默认情况下受制于动态的消费比例规则。我们将演示行为偏差和治理结构如何导致成员坚持这种默认值。此外，我们的分析强调了这一监管框架的几个缺点。首先，当成员有不同的消费特征或灵活性时，它会造成不公平的分配。其次，它可能产生价格信号，产生适得其反的效果，即使社区环境给个人行为带来了一些新的审查。最后，这种集中的方法从根本上与支持这些倡议的分散精神相矛盾。通过强调这些局限性，我们旨在完善现行法规，促进集体自我消费的发展，并在决定选择哪种能源共享规则之前更好地告知其成员。

引用次数: 0

Innovation or contraction? Unpacking the effects of carbon taxes and subsidies on emissions in Brazil 创新还是收缩？剖析巴西碳税和补贴对排放的影响

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115095

Gustavo L. Rocha Lima , Bernardo A. Furtado , Olandia F. Lopes

In the face of accelerating climate change, balancing growth, environmental sustainability, and social equity remains a key challenge for policymakers. This paper leverages an agent-based model with sectoral production, emissions, and spatial-social dynamics to evaluate carbon taxes and investment subsidies, including targeted policy variants, in an emerging economy (Brazil). We examine their effects on emissions across sectors, economic performance, and social equity, focusing on how such policies influence firms’ innovation decisions—specifically, whether to adopt cleaner production methods that reduce input use and emissions. Simulation results show distinct outcomes: while the subsidy scenario on its own has little economic impact but can stimulate innovation, the carbon tax yields significant environmental gains at the cost of economic losses. Moreover, the combined policy produces outcomes very similar to the carbon tax scenario, underscoring a critical insight: short-term emission reductions arise primarily from output contraction. This suggests that, for a policy mix to succeed, subsidies must be designed not only to incentivize sustainable investment but also to act as a targeted compensatory mechanism that mitigates the economic costs of taxation. Finally, we examine targeted extensions of the core scenarios, focusing on sector-specific subsidies and the redistributive recycling of carbon tax revenues, finding evidence to support positive results for both policies.

面对加速的气候变化，平衡增长、环境可持续性和社会公平仍然是政策制定者面临的一项关键挑战。本文利用基于主体的模型，结合部门生产、排放和空间社会动态来评估新兴经济体（巴西）的碳税和投资补贴，包括有针对性的政策变化。我们考察了这些政策对各行业排放、经济绩效和社会公平的影响，重点关注这些政策如何影响企业的创新决策——特别是，是否采用减少投入使用和排放的清洁生产方法。模拟结果显示了截然不同的结果：虽然补贴方案本身几乎没有经济影响，但可以刺激创新，但碳税以经济损失为代价获得了显著的环境收益。此外，综合政策产生的结果与碳税情景非常相似，强调了一个关键观点：短期减排主要来自产出收缩。这表明，为了使政策组合取得成功，补贴的设计不仅必须鼓励可持续投资，而且必须作为一种有针对性的补偿机制，减轻税收的经济成本。最后，我们考察了核心情景的目标扩展，重点关注特定行业补贴和碳税收收入的再分配回收，找到证据支持这两项政策的积极成果。

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引用次数: 0