Energy Policy最新文献_第6页

Resolving Iran's electricity shortage crisis through integrated energy policy: A system dynamics approach 通过综合能源政策解决伊朗电力短缺危机：系统动力学方法

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115126

Mohammad-Mahdi Pazuki , Mohsen Salimi , Matin karbasioun , Nasser Safaie , Majid Amidpour

This study develops an integrated System Dynamics (SD) framework to analyze and resolve Iran's persistent electricity shortage crisis by 2041. Despite substantial fossil fuel reserves and renewable potential, Iran's power system faces chronic supply deficits, reaching up to 18 GW during peak periods, driven by inefficient consumption, subsidy distortions, and aging infrastructure. The proposed model simulates the interactions among demand, supply, fiscal, and environmental variables to evaluate the dynamic effects of five major policy interventions: gradual fuel subsidy removal, consumer equipment efficiency enhancement, carbon taxation, renewable purchase guarantees with financial support, and an integrated mixed policy. Simulation results reveal that isolated measures produce limited outcomes, subsidy reform reduces shortages by only 5.5%, while efficiency improvements and renewable support each eliminate deficits by 2031. The integrated policy, consolidating fiscal revenues through a National Energy Transition Fund (NETF), achieves full shortage elimination by 2027 and creates a 98 TWh surplus by 2041, while cutting CO₂ emissions by 43%. Sensitivity tests confirm model robustness under macroeconomic and technological uncertainty. The findings demonstrate that policy coordination amplifies synergies, enabling both energy security and deep decarbonization. The framework provides actionable insights for policymakers in Iran and other fossil-fuel-dependent economies, underscoring the effectiveness of revenue recycling, systemic integration, and early renewable investment in accelerating sustainable energy transitions.

本研究开发了一个集成的系统动力学（SD）框架来分析和解决伊朗到2041年持续的电力短缺危机。尽管拥有丰富的化石燃料储备和可再生能源潜力，但由于消费效率低下、补贴扭曲和基础设施老化，伊朗的电力系统面临着长期的供应短缺，在高峰时期高达18吉瓦。该模型模拟了需求、供给、财政和环境变量之间的相互作用，以评估五种主要政策干预措施的动态效果：逐步取消燃料补贴、提高消费者设备效率、碳税、财政支持的可再生能源购买担保和综合混合政策。模拟结果显示，孤立的措施只能产生有限的结果，补贴改革只能减少5.5%的短缺，而效率提高和可再生能源支持都能在2031年消除赤字。综合政策，通过国家能源转型基金（NETF）巩固财政收入，到2027年实现完全消除短缺，到2041年创造98太瓦时的盈余，同时减少43%的二氧化碳排放量。敏感性测试证实了模型在宏观经济和技术不确定性下的稳健性。研究结果表明，政策协调可以放大协同效应，从而实现能源安全和深度脱碳。该框架为伊朗和其他依赖化石燃料的经济体的决策者提供了可行的见解，强调了收入回收、系统整合和早期可再生能源投资在加速可持续能源转型方面的有效性。

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引用次数: 0

From hardhats to algorithms: How AI is redefining labor in China's energy industry 从安全帽到算法：人工智能如何重新定义中国能源行业的劳动力

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115067

Tingting Sun , Rongrong Li , Qiang Wang

Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping labor markets, with particularly disruptive effects in capital-intensive sectors like energy. This study investigates the impact of AI on employment scale and skill composition in China's energy industry, using panel data from 112 listed firms (2011–2023). We construct a novel “industry–region coordinated exposure index” that combines regional AI development with industry-level task automatability, and embed this within a comparative advantage-based double machine learning (DML) framework to identify causal effects. The research results indicate that AI has a significant overall impact on the workforce, leading to a significant substitution effect among college graduate workers; while the labor market for basic education and postgraduate students shows an upward trend, indicating a clear polarization of skills. Significant heterogeneity exists across industries and regions: fossil fuel companies experienced more drastic workforce reductions, while renewable energy companies demonstrated a complementarity between AI and human capital. Regionally, AI led to workforce shrinkage in eastern provinces, promoted moderate skills upgrading in the central region, and had a limited impact in the west. These findings provide valuable evidence for policy considerations regarding the management of AI-driven workforce transformation. Emerging economies should achieve a balance between technological progress and employment structure driven by AI by strengthening workforce retraining, improving vocational education systems, and promoting coordinated regional development.

人工智能（AI）正在重塑劳动力市场，尤其是在能源等资本密集型行业产生破坏性影响。本文利用112家上市公司（2011-2023年）的面板数据，考察了人工智能对中国能源行业就业规模和技能构成的影响。我们构建了一个新的“行业-区域协调暴露指数”，将区域人工智能发展与行业级任务自动化相结合，并将其嵌入基于比较优势的双机器学习（DML）框架中，以确定因果关系。研究结果表明，人工智能对劳动力产生了显著的整体影响，导致大学毕业生之间存在显著的替代效应；而基础教育和研究生的劳动力市场呈现上升趋势，表明明显的技能两极分化。不同行业和地区之间存在显著的异质性：化石燃料公司裁员幅度更大，而可再生能源公司则表现出人工智能与人力资本之间的互补性。从地区来看，人工智能导致东部省份劳动力萎缩，促进中部地区适度的技能升级，对西部地区的影响有限。这些发现为有关人工智能驱动的劳动力转型管理的政策考虑提供了有价值的证据。新兴经济体应通过加强劳动力再培训，完善职业教育体系，促进区域协调发展，实现技术进步与人工智能驱动的就业结构的平衡。

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引用次数: 0

How social embeddedness shapes rural rooftop solar photovoltaic adoption intention: Evidence from a large-scale behavioral study in China 社会嵌入性如何影响农村屋顶太阳能光伏的采用意向：来自中国大规模行为研究的证据

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115128

Diyi Liu , Ye Yuan , Zhenni Chen , Pengwen Hou

Understanding how social contexts shape household energy decisions is critical for rural rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) policy. Early research often treats social networks as homogeneous, ignoring individual differences in social network embeddedness. Few studies examine how structural, relational, and network size dimensions moderate adoption through psychological mechanisms. As a result, the social-psychological pathways linking heterogeneity to adoption remain underexplored. This study addresses this gap by developing a Comprehensive Social Embeddedness Behavior (CSEB) model, in which Social Network Theory provides the primary framework, and the Theory of Planned Behavior is used to capture key psychological drivers. Using a survey of 12,368 rural households in China, we show that social embeddedness strongly shapes adoption intentions. Structural embeddedness weakens perceived behavioral control, while larger networks enhance adoption by fostering positive attitudes. These findings highlight the role of social heterogeneity in policy design and inform targeted interventions to enhance rooftop solar PV adoption among diverse rural households.

了解社会环境如何影响家庭能源决策对于农村屋顶太阳能光伏（PV）政策至关重要。早期的研究往往将社会网络视为同质的，忽视了社会网络嵌入性的个体差异。很少有研究考察结构、关系和网络大小维度如何通过心理机制调节采用。因此，将异质性与收养联系起来的社会心理学途径仍未得到充分探索。本研究通过建立一个综合社会嵌入行为（CSEB）模型来解决这一问题，该模型以社会网络理论为主要框架，并使用计划行为理论来捕捉关键的心理驱动因素。通过对中国12368个农村家庭的调查，我们发现社会嵌入性在很大程度上影响了收养意愿。结构嵌入性削弱了感知行为控制，而更大的网络通过培养积极的态度来增强采用。这些发现突出了社会异质性在政策设计中的作用，并为有针对性的干预措施提供了信息，以提高不同农村家庭对屋顶太阳能光伏的采用。

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引用次数: 0

Good governance and energy security in OECD countries: The mediating role of environmental policy stringency 经合组织国家的善治与能源安全：环境政策严格性的中介作用

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115100

Kanchan Kumar Sen , Shamal Chandra Karmaker , Bidyut Baran Saha

Energy security has emerged as a central policy challenge as climate change intensifies alongside rising energy demand and increasing geopolitical uncertainty. For developed economies, ensuring secure energy systems while advancing environmental sustainability requires not only technological progress but also effective governance and regulatory frameworks. Despite this importance, empirical evidence on how governance quality influences energy security through environmental policy remains limited, and existing studies largely rely on traditional econometric approaches that struggle to capture non-linear dynamics. To address these gaps, this study examines the role of good governance in enhancing sustainable energy security in OECD countries, with a particular focus on the mediating role of environmental policy stringency. By applying both machine learning and econometric approaches, the study explored a positive and significant impact of good governance on energy security, highlighting that stronger governance enhances the resilience, efficiency, and sustainability of national energy systems. The study also found that environmental policy stringency acts as a key indirect channel through which governance quality enhances energy security. This highlights the importance of strong institutions and well-enforced environmental regulations for improving energy security in developed economies. From a policy perspective, these findings emphasize the value of integrating governance reforms with strong environmental policies. These insights offer practical guidance for policymakers aiming to strengthen energy resilience while promoting decarbonization and sustainable development goals.

随着气候变化加剧、能源需求上升和地缘政治不确定性增加，能源安全已成为一项核心政策挑战。对于发达经济体而言，在确保能源系统安全的同时推进环境可持续性，不仅需要技术进步，还需要有效的治理和监管框架。尽管如此，关于治理质量如何通过环境政策影响能源安全的经验证据仍然有限，现有的研究主要依赖于传统的计量经济学方法，难以捕捉非线性动态。为了解决这些差距，本研究考察了善治在加强经合组织国家可持续能源安全方面的作用，特别侧重于环境政策严格性的中介作用。通过应用机器学习和计量经济学方法，该研究探讨了良好治理对能源安全的积极和重大影响，强调了更强有力的治理可以提高国家能源系统的弹性、效率和可持续性。研究还发现，严格的环境政策是治理质量提高能源安全的一个关键的间接渠道。这凸显了强有力的制度和执行良好的环境法规对改善发达经济体能源安全的重要性。从政策角度来看，这些发现强调了将治理改革与强有力的环境政策相结合的价值。这些见解为旨在加强能源弹性、同时促进脱碳和实现可持续发展目标的政策制定者提供了实用指导。

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引用次数: 0

Fuelling energy poverty? Evidence on the role of deforestation in developing countries 加剧能源贫困？关于发展中国家森林砍伐作用的证据

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115085

Windbeneti Arnaud Zahonogo , Relwendé Sawadogo

Energy poverty remains a critical development challenge in low- and middle-income countries, central to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7). This study investigates the causal impact of deforestation on energy poverty, focusing on two key dimensions: access to electricity and access to clean cooking fuels. Using a panel of 95 developing countries from 2000 to 2023, we employ robust econometric techniques, including ordinary least squares (OLS), two-stage least squares (2SLS), and smoothed instrumental variable quantile regression (SIVQR), to account for endogeneity and distributional heterogeneity. The results consistently show that deforestation significantly worsens energy poverty, particularly in more deprived contexts, by reducing access to clean fuels and electricity. These findings remain robust across alternative deforestation measures and model specifications. Furthermore, income growth, human capital, and carbon efficiency mitigate energy poverty, while population pressure, natural resource dependence, and institutional weaknesses exacerbate it. The findings call for integrated policies that link forest conservation with equitable energy access to support inclusive and sustainable energy transitions.

能源贫困仍然是低收入和中等收入国家面临的重大发展挑战，对实现可持续发展目标7至关重要。这项研究调查了森林砍伐对能源贫困的因果影响，重点关注两个关键方面：获得电力和获得清洁烹饪燃料。利用2000年至2023年95个发展中国家的面板，我们采用了稳健的计量经济学技术，包括普通最小二乘法（OLS）、两阶段最小二乘法（2SLS）和平滑工具变量分位数回归（SIVQR），以解释内质性和分布异质性。研究结果一致表明，森林砍伐减少了获得清洁燃料和电力的机会，从而显著加剧了能源贫困，特别是在更贫困的地区。这些发现在其他森林砍伐措施和模型规范中仍然是强有力的。此外，收入增长、人力资本和碳效率缓解了能源贫困，而人口压力、自然资源依赖和制度弱点加剧了能源贫困。研究结果呼吁制定综合政策，将森林保护与公平的能源获取联系起来，以支持包容和可持续的能源转型。

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引用次数: 0

Electric vehicle adoption and utilization of renewable energy in U.S.: Sensitivity analysis of electricity tariffs and emission pricing 美国电动汽车采用和利用可再生能源：电价和排放定价的敏感性分析

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115101

A.H. Taheri, M.M. Ardehali

The sustainable future growth of electric vehicle (EV) adoption is dependent on tariffication and emission pricing policies for energy exchange with the grid when renewable energy is to assist with managing electricity load. The aim of this study is to examine the sensitivity of time-of-use electricity (TOU) tariff, feed-in tariff (FIT), and CO₂ emission pricing for EV adoption based on utilization of on-grid renewable energy system (RES) for San Diego, Seattle, Boston, and Colorado Springs with different renewable energy potentials in the U.S. Based on optimization of economic cost function for ownership and operation, the optimal on-grid RES capacities to serve as integrated charging infrastructure for battery and hydrogen-fuel cell EVs are determined. The simulation results show that lowering the capital cost of the on-grid RES by 10–20% in combination with offering a more encouraging FIT program could result in desirable support for EV adoption. It is concluded that the current carbon pricing program is ineffective for constraining fossil fuel consumption and promoting the integration of on-grid renewable energy.

电动汽车（EV）采用的可持续未来增长取决于可再生能源协助管理电力负荷时与电网进行能源交换的关税和排放定价政策。本研究的目的是基于美国圣地亚哥、西雅图、波士顿和科罗拉多斯普林斯等具有不同可再生能源潜力的城市的并网可再生能源系统（RES）利用率，研究分时电价（TOU）、上网电价（FIT）和二氧化碳排放定价对电动汽车采用的敏感性。确定了作为纯电池和氢燃料电池电动汽车综合充电基础设施的最佳并网可再生能源容量。仿真结果表明，将并网可再生能源的资本成本降低10-20%，并提供更令人鼓舞的FIT计划，可以为电动汽车的采用提供理想的支持。结论认为，现行的碳定价方案对于抑制化石燃料消费和促进可再生能源并网发电是无效的。

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引用次数: 0

Seizing the green hydrogen opportunity? Comparing strategies for industrial transformation in latecomer countries 抓住绿色氢能源的机遇？后发国家产业转型战略比较

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115111

Fabianna Bacil , Anthony Black , Marina Domingues , Jun Jin , Rasmus Lema , Glen Robbins , Sören Scholvin

Green hydrogen is often promoted as a pathway to reconcile economic growth with environmental sustainability, yet its implications for industrial development in the Global South remain contested. While it offers potential to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors and foster industrial upgrading, systematic comparative analyses of how emerging economies pursue these opportunities are limited. This paper examines how Brazil, Chile, China, and South Africa approach the emerging green hydrogen window of opportunity to advance industrial transformation. The study combines content analysis of national strategies with contextual data on structural preconditions and policy responses. The analysis reveals divergent strategic orientations, ranging from state-led coordination to market facilitation and export-driven pragmatism, reflecting contrasting institutional capacities, industrial structures, and development priorities. These differences shape the depth and direction of learning and localisation processes. The findings suggest that green hydrogen's transformative potential depends less on the technological promise than on the state's ability to embed it within coherent industrial policy systems, underscoring the need for context-sensitive and adaptive policy designs rather than universal blueprints for green industrialisation.

绿色氢通常被宣传为协调经济增长与环境可持续性的途径，但其对全球南方工业发展的影响仍存在争议。尽管它为难以减排的行业提供了脱碳和促进产业升级的潜力，但对新兴经济体如何抓住这些机会的系统比较分析却很有限。本文考察了巴西、智利、中国和南非如何利用新兴的绿色氢机遇窗口推进产业转型。该研究将国家战略的内容分析与结构先决条件和政策反应的背景数据相结合。分析揭示了不同的战略方向，从国家主导的协调到市场便利化和出口驱动的实用主义，反映了不同的制度能力、产业结构和发展重点。这些差异决定了学习和本地化过程的深度和方向。研究结果表明，绿色氢的变革潜力与其说取决于技术前景，不如说取决于国家将其嵌入连贯的产业政策体系的能力，这强调了对环境敏感和适应性政策设计的需求，而不是绿色工业化的通用蓝图。

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引用次数: 0

CCUS technology diffusion and multi-agent investment behavior under policy incentives 政策激励下CCUS技术扩散与多主体投资行为

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115086

Yuanming Li , Bei Li , Shuangxing Liu , Ming Xue , Xingchun Li , Peng Wu

Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) technology is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality, but high costs and uncertainty lead to persistent underinvestment, making coordinated investment between carbon source and sink sectors a potential solution. This study considers carbon source enterprises and carbon sink enterprises as cooperative investors under uncertain oil prices and carbon trading prices, and develops an integrated model that combines a two-player real-options framework with an evolutionary game to analyze multi-agent CCUS investment decisions and technology diffusion under differentiated subsidy policies. The results show that CCUS diffusion exhibits pronounced nonlinear and oscillatory dynamics, with initial conditions critically shaping its pathway: lower initial adoption probabilities delay convergence and amplify fluctuations, especially for capital-intensive coal-fired power plants facing high costs and uncertain returns. The revenue–cost allocation mechanism displays critical threshold effects: there exists an interior range of benefit–cost sharing that supports relatively high and stable diffusion, whereas excessive revenue claims by power plants or overly high cost-sharing, while raising average diffusion, inhibit oil companies’ participation and induce more pronounced long-term volatility. Differentiated subsidy policies also have heterogeneous effects: initial investment subsidies lower entry barriers, accelerate diffusion and dampen volatility; clean electricity price subsidies increase adoption levels but tend to magnify cyclical fluctuations; and CO₂-EOR tax credits optimize the revenue structure of the sink sector and significantly promote diffusion towards a high and stable state. These findings provide a model-based rationale for designing a graduated incentive subsidy scheme, implementing a dual-threshold revenue–cost mechanism, and prioritising regional CCUS projects with scale effects.

碳捕集、利用和封存（CCUS）技术对于实现碳中和至关重要，但高昂的成本和不确定性导致持续的投资不足，这使得碳源和碳汇部门之间的协调投资成为一个潜在的解决方案。本研究将碳源企业和碳汇企业作为不确定油价和碳交易价格下的合作投资者，建立了一个将二人现实期权框架与演化博弈相结合的集成模型，分析了差异化补贴政策下的多主体CCUS投资决策与技术扩散。结果表明，CCUS扩散表现出明显的非线性和振荡动力学，初始条件对其路径至关重要：较低的初始采用概率延迟收敛并放大波动，特别是对于面临高成本和不确定回报的资本密集型燃煤电厂。收益-成本分配机制表现出临界门槛效应：存在一个内部的收益-成本分担范围，支持相对较高且稳定的扩散，而发电厂过高的收益要求或过高的成本分担在提高平均扩散的同时，抑制了石油公司的参与，并导致更明显的长期波动。差别化补贴政策也具有异质性效应：初始投资补贴降低了进入壁垒，加速了扩散，抑制了波动；清洁电价补贴提高了采用率，但往往会放大周期性波动；CO2-EOR税收抵免优化了碳汇部门的收入结构，显著促进了碳汇向高稳态扩散。这些发现为设计分级激励补贴方案、实施双门槛收入-成本机制以及优先考虑具有规模效应的区域CCUS项目提供了基于模型的理论依据。

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引用次数: 0

Temporal stability of consumer preferences for solar Energy: A choice experiment study 消费者太阳能偏好的时间稳定性：一个选择实验研究

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115123

Jamal Mamkhezri

I conducted the first long-term repeated cross-sectional analysis with identical choice tasks on willingness to pay (WTP) for solar energy, using discrete choice experiments. Initial data was collected from 404 respondents through mixed-mode surveys in 2017, and 719 online respondents participated in the 2023 wave. I assessed the temporal stability of WTP over a six-year period in New Mexico. My findings, based on mixed logit models in WTP-space with sociodemographic and environmental attitude interactions and scale heterogeneity adjustments, reveal selective temporal instability. Preferences for rooftop solar share, monthly credit banking, and the status quo energy plan exhibited significant magnitude changes, while preferences for Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), water usage in the electricity sector, and smart meter installations remained stable, though the latter had statistically nonsignificant results. Respondents were willing to pay premiums for policies that increase RPS, expand rooftop solar relative to utility-scale solar, prevent utility restrictions on credit banking, reduce water usage by utilities, and enable online access to electricity information. Sociodemographic interactions revealed that political affiliation, age, and graduate education influence RPS preferences, while higher income affects rooftop solar preferences. Stronger environmental attitudes correlated with higher WTP for RPS and water conservation across both waves. However, environmental premiums for rooftop-over-utility-scale solar and smart meters disappeared by 2023, reflecting technology normalization as adoption scaled from niche to mainstream status. Overall, I observe a downward shift in preferences for solar policies after increased RPS policy implementation.

我使用离散选择实验，对太阳能的支付意愿（WTP）进行了第一次长期重复横断面分析。2017年通过混合模式调查收集了404名受访者的初步数据，719名在线受访者参与了2023年的浪潮。我评估了新墨西哥州6年时间内WTP的时间稳定性。我的发现，基于wtp空间的混合logit模型与社会人口和环境态度的相互作用和尺度异质性调整，揭示了选择性的时间不稳定性。对屋顶太阳能份额、月度信贷银行和现状能源计划的偏好表现出显著的变化，而对可再生能源组合标准（RPS）、电力部门用水和智能电表安装的偏好保持稳定，尽管后者的统计结果不显著。受访者愿意为提高RPS、扩大屋顶太阳能相对于公用事业规模的太阳能、防止公用事业对信贷银行的限制、减少公用事业的用水量以及允许在线访问电力信息的政策支付保费。社会人口相互作用表明，政治派别、年龄和研究生教育影响RPS偏好，而高收入影响屋顶太阳能偏好。更强的环境态度与更高的RPS WTP和节水相关。然而，到2023年，屋顶超过公用事业规模的太阳能和智能电表的环境溢价将消失，这反映了技术的正常化，因为采用规模从小众到主流地位。总的来说，我观察到在增加RPS政策实施后，对太阳能政策的偏好有所下降。

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引用次数: 0

Technology and policy options for achieving net zero steel manufacturing in the United States 在美国实现净零钢铁制造的技术和政策选择

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115124

Francis G.N. Li , Chris Bataille , Seton Stiebert , Taiba Jafari , Olexandr Balyk , James Glynn

This paper explores strategies for achieving net zero emissions in the United States steel industry by 2050, consistent with the Paris Agreement. The US faces a pivotal moment in the lifecycle of its steel production fleet in the late 2020s, where the opportunity exists to integrate next generation clean steel technologies into the industrial base and become a global market leader in net zero steel by mid-century. Effective policy support at the federal and state levels will be essential for transitioning the most GHG-intensive production methods to cleaner alternatives during this upcoming window of opportunity. Our results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act alone is unlikely to be sufficient to drive a timely transition to net-zero steel production, and that additional demand-side, trade-related, and post-IRA policy measures are required. The paper contextualizes U.S. steel production within global efforts, examining implications for technological change, energy demand, emissions reductions, and international trade using a geospatially detailed techno-economic model of steel production across 137 countries and 1000+ facility locations. Our analysis finds that the US is well positioned to be one of the first countries in the world to achieve net zero steel manufacturing and could make this transition using existing technologies, but the speed of transition and the resulting patterns of investment are sensitive to US policy choices on trade openness to the rest of the world and with close allies. Trade-restrictive pathways, while capable of accelerating domestic decarbonization, also entail higher costs and economic risks that must be carefully managed.

本文探讨了根据《巴黎协定》，到2050年实现美国钢铁行业净零排放的战略。本世纪20年代末，美国将面临其钢铁生产船队生命周期的关键时刻，届时将有机会将下一代清洁钢铁技术整合到工业基础中，并在本世纪中叶之前成为净零钢的全球市场领导者。在即将到来的机会之窗期间，联邦和州一级的有效政策支持对于将温室气体最密集的生产方法转变为更清洁的替代方法至关重要。我们的研究结果表明，仅靠《减少通货膨胀法》不太可能足以推动钢铁生产及时过渡到净零，需要采取额外的需求方、贸易相关和后ira政策措施。本文将美国钢铁生产置于全球努力的背景下，利用137个国家和1000多个工厂地点的钢铁生产的地理空间详细技术经济模型，研究了技术变革、能源需求、减排和国际贸易的影响。我们的分析发现，美国完全有能力成为世界上首批实现净零钢铁制造的国家之一，并且可以利用现有技术实现这一转型，但转型的速度和由此产生的投资模式对美国对世界其他地区和与亲密盟友的贸易开放政策选择很敏感。限制贸易的途径虽然能够加速国内的脱碳，但也会带来更高的成本和经济风险，必须谨慎管理。

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引用次数: 0