Energy Policy最新文献_第6页

Provincial employment effects of coal mine retirement in China's carbon-neutral transition 中国碳中和转型中煤矿退役对省级就业的影响

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115038

Shiyu Li , Zanfeng Wang , Wenji Zhou , Anlan Lin , Hongtao Ren

China's just transition toward carbon neutrality requires carefully designed coal mine retirement strategies that balance climate objectives with social equity and regional development disparities. In this study, we propose a comprehensive analytical framework combining the RUC-MESSAGEix-China (RMC) integrated assessment model with facility-level coal mine data to evaluate three distinct retirement strategies across China's 19 major coal-producing provinces. The cost-optimal strategy prioritizes economic efficiency, the employment-oriented strategy emphasizes social equity, and the balanced strategy seeks an optimal solution between competing objectives. The results show that while all strategies achieve similar retirement targets by 2060, they follow dramatically different pathways. The balanced strategy emerges as optimal for most provinces like Anhui, preserving cumulatively 1.78 million additional job-years compared to cost-optimal strategies. By 2060, the cost-optimal strategy concentrates all remaining operations in efficient regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, while the employment-oriented strategy preserves a broader industrial footprint across provinces like Henan, Shanxi, and Liaoning. Furthermore, provincial analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity: high-production, high-GDP provinces like Shanxi benefit from gradual transitions, while resource-constrained regions like Guizhou require targeted support. The carbon capture and storage scenario demonstrates an improved performance on employment, facilitating an extended employment transition period and enhanced job retention. These findings highlight the necessity of differentiated, location-specific just transition policies rather than uniform national approaches, ensuring no region is left behind during China's decarbonization.

中国向碳中和的转型需要精心设计煤矿退役战略，以平衡气候目标与社会公平和区域发展差距。在本研究中，我们提出了一个综合分析框架，将RUC-MESSAGEix-China （RMC）综合评估模型与设施级煤矿数据相结合，以评估中国19个主要产煤省份的三种不同的退休策略。成本最优战略优先考虑经济效率，以就业为导向的战略强调社会公平，平衡战略寻求竞争目标之间的最优解。结果显示，尽管所有策略都能在2060年前实现相似的退休目标，但它们遵循的路径却截然不同。对于像安徽这样的大多数省份来说，平衡战略是最优的，与成本最优战略相比，它累计保留了178万个额外的就业年。到2060年，成本最优战略将把所有剩余的业务集中在新疆和内蒙古等高效地区，而以就业为导向的战略将在河南、山西和辽宁等省份保留更广泛的工业足迹。此外，省际分析显示了显著的异质性：像山西这样的高产量、高gdp省份受益于逐步转型，而像贵州这样的资源受限地区则需要有针对性的支持。碳捕集与封存情景在就业方面的表现有所改善，有助于延长就业过渡期，提高就业保持率。这些研究结果强调，有必要采取因地制宜的转型政策，而不是统一的国家方针，以确保在中国的脱碳过程中不让任何地区掉队。

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引用次数: 0

Designing robust energy policy packages under deep uncertainty: A multi-metric decision support framework 深度不确定性下设计稳健的能源政策包：一个多度量决策支持框架

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115008

Antonio F. Rodriguez-Matas , Thomas B. Wild , Pedro Linares , Jonathan R. Lamontagne , Claudia Dominguez-Barbero

The complexity of transitioning to sustainable energy systems requires policy frameworks capable of balancing multiple objectives while addressing deep uncertainty. However, existing approaches often lack systematic methods to identify combinations of policy levers that remain effective across a wide range of uncertain futures. This study aims to develop and demonstrate a structured decision-support framework for designing robust energy policy packages under deep uncertainty. The proposed method leverages a large ensemble of scenarios and applies scenario discovery techniques to identify influential policy levers. We introduce new indicators to assess the robustness of policies by evaluating their ability to mitigate adverse outcomes across metrics. These indicators support an iterative process to build a robust policy package. Finally, we map the technological and energy pathways associated with the robust policy package by leveraging an energy system optimization model. We illustrate the application of this framework to the Spanish energy system, providing insights into how specific combinations of policy levers shape decarbonization pathways under uncertainty.

向可持续能源系统过渡的复杂性要求政策框架能够平衡多个目标，同时解决深层次的不确定性。然而，现有方法往往缺乏系统的方法来确定在广泛的不确定未来中仍然有效的政策杠杆组合。本研究旨在开发并展示一个结构化的决策支持框架，用于在深度不确定性下设计稳健的能源政策包。所提出的方法利用大量场景集合，并应用场景发现技术来识别有影响力的策略杠杆。我们引入了新的指标，通过评估政策减轻不利后果的能力来评估政策的稳健性。这些指标支持建立一个强有力的一揽子政策的迭代过程。最后，通过利用能源系统优化模型，我们绘制了与稳健政策包相关的技术和能源路径。我们说明了这一框架在西班牙能源系统中的应用，为不确定性下政策杠杆的具体组合如何塑造脱碳途径提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

Optimism, pessimism, and chaos worldwide: A comparative study of energy management performance with robust benchmarking methods 乐观、悲观和世界范围内的混乱：能源管理绩效与稳健基准方法的比较研究

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115013

Filipe Ribeiro de Almeida Farinhas , Guilherme Vara , Paulo Caldas , Diogo Cunha Ferreira

Assessing national Energy Management Performance (EMP) is vital but faces methodological challenges, including weighting subjectivity and sensitivity to outliers and contextual factors in frontier analysis. This study addresses these issues by comparing EMP across 174 countries (c. 2022) using 13 core indicators. It employs Benefit-of-the-Doubt (BoD) modeling (optimistic and pessimistic), robust unconditional order-

m

analysis (

m = 40

), and conditional order-

m

analysis incorporating nine environmental variables (e.g., Human Development Index, Environmental Performance Index) to evaluate contextual influence. Results from the initial BoD analysis (optimistic vs. pessimistic) revealed significant divergence and a moderate negative correlation (rank correlation

ρ \approx - 0.4

) between optimistic and pessimistic scores and ranks, indicating performance specialization. The unconditional order-

m

analysis (

m = 40

) yielded an average efficiency potential of 0.873, though 39 top-performing countries could not be evaluated as they defined the frontier. The conditional order-

m

analysis, accounting for environmental context, resulted in high efficiency scores (mean

> 0.97

). Critically, country rankings remained exceptionally stable (Spearman’s

ρ \geq 0.96

) when comparing conditional results to baseline BoD ranks and across different environmental contexts. This suggests that while context theoretically matters, its influence on relative EMP rankings, as assessed by this specific conditional methodology, was minimal, likely due to high baseline BoD performance levels.

评估国家能源管理绩效（EMP）至关重要，但面临方法上的挑战，包括权重主观性和对前沿分析中异常值和背景因素的敏感性。本研究通过使用13个核心指标比较174个国家（至2022年）的EMP来解决这些问题。它采用怀疑利益（BoD）模型（乐观和悲观），稳健的无条件顺序m分析（m=40），以及包含九个环境变量的条件顺序m分析（例如，人类发展指数，环境绩效指数）来评估上下文影响。最初的BoD分析结果（乐观vs悲观）显示乐观和悲观得分和排名之间存在显著差异和中度负相关（秩相关ρ≈−0.4），表明绩效专业化。无条件序-m分析（m=40）的平均效率潜力为0.873，尽管39个表现最好的国家无法评估，因为它们定义了边界。考虑环境背景的条件序-m分析获得了较高的效率分数（平均>；0.97）。关键的是，当比较条件结果与基线BoD排名和不同环境背景时，国家排名保持异常稳定（Spearman ρ≥0.96）。这表明，虽然环境在理论上很重要，但根据这种特定的条件方法评估，它对相对EMP排名的影响很小，可能是由于高基线BoD性能水平。

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引用次数: 0

The marketization of green electricity trading and investment decisions of new energy enterprises 市场化绿色电力交易与新能源企业投资决策

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115037

Boqiang Lin , Jiangnan Li

Green electricity trading, a key mechanism to promote new energy consumption and market development in China, has seen continuous reforms. The government's efforts to integrate green electricity into the power market have stabilized revenue expectations, but subsidy phase-out and increased competition have raised concerns about investment decisions. Using corporate financial data from Q4 2022 to Q1 2025 and manually collected green electricity certificate trading data, this study employs fixed effect models and support vector machine algorithms to investigate the nonlinear impact of fluctuations in green certificate prices on enterprise investment decisions. The study finds: (1) A decrease in green certificate price fluctuations initially increases, then decreases the fixed asset growth rate, forming an inverted U-shape. (2) When volatility stabilizes at low levels, speculative arbitrage opportunities shrink, delaying investment. (3) The inverted U-shape is more prominent in photovoltaic and energy storage firms, with high-turnover firms more sensitive to volatility and efficient firms more driven by market signals. This study suggests optimizing the green electricity certificate trading market mechanism by adjusting the supply elasticity of green certificates to create reasonable fluctuation space.

绿色电力交易是促进中国新能源消费和市场发展的关键机制，改革不断。政府将绿色电力纳入电力市场的努力稳定了收入预期，但补贴逐步取消和竞争加剧引发了对投资决策的担忧。本文利用2022年第四季度至2025年第一季度的企业财务数据和人工采集的绿色电力证书交易数据，采用固定效应模型和支持向量机算法研究绿色证书价格波动对企业投资决策的非线性影响。研究发现：(1)绿色证书价格波动幅度的减小先增大，后减小固定资产增长率，形成倒u型。(2)当波动性稳定在低水平时，投机套利机会收缩，投资延迟。(3)光伏和储能企业的“倒u”型特征更为突出，高周转企业对波动更为敏感，高效企业更受市场信号的驱动。本文建议通过调整绿色电力证书的供给弹性，优化绿色电力证书交易市场机制，创造合理的波动空间。

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引用次数: 0

The political economy of green industrial policy in liberal states 自由国家绿色产业政策的政治经济学

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115006

Bruno Arcand

Nations are increasingly turning to green industrial policy to promote low-carbon economic development. While liberal states have long been portrayed as institutionally ill-equipped to pursue state-led economic transformations, recent research shows that they can and do advance such strategies. However, explanations for why these countries vary in their capacity to overcome institutional constraints in green industrial policy remain underexplored. The argument in this paper is that some political economy conditions shape the capacity of liberal states to pursue proactive green industrial policy. Empirically, the analysis compares the industrial strategy for carbon capture of two liberal states, Canada and the United Kingdom, that display contrasting degrees of alignment with the liberal market approach. Findings reveal that the United Kingdom's shift towards a more state-led strategy was enabled by politically salient coalitions in industrial regions and the renewed legitimation of industrial policy after the 2016 Brexit referendum, whereas Canada's strong hydrocarbon incumbency and persistent market fundamentalism sustained a liberal market approach. The paper contributes to understanding the conditions under which liberal states can move towards more state-led industrial transformations.

各国越来越多地转向绿色产业政策，以促进低碳经济发展。尽管自由主义国家长期以来一直被描绘为在制度上不具备追求国家主导的经济转型的能力，但最近的研究表明，它们能够而且确实在推进这种战略。然而，对于这些国家克服绿色产业政策制度限制的能力为何不同的解释仍未得到充分探讨。本文的论点是，一些政治经济条件塑造了自由国家追求积极的绿色产业政策的能力。从经验上看，该分析比较了加拿大和英国这两个自由主义国家的碳捕获工业战略，这两个国家显示出与自由市场方法的不同程度的一致性。调查结果显示，英国向国家主导战略的转变是由工业地区的政治显著联盟和2016年英国脱欧公投后工业政策的重新合法化推动的，而加拿大强大的碳氢化合物主导地位和持续的市场原教旨主义维持了自由市场的方式。这篇论文有助于理解自由国家在何种条件下能够走向更多由国家主导的工业转型。

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引用次数: 0

Decarbonizing residential space heating with heat pumps in the United States 在美国用热泵使住宅空间供暖脱碳

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114997

Roxana T. Shafiee , Daniel P. Schrag

Heat pumps are a critical technology for decarbonizing the buildings sector, but adoption rates remain low in the United States. Here, we examine policies to promote widespread heat pump uptake based on a national-scale analysis of the impact of heat pump adoption on consumer heating bills and patterns of heating usage across the contiguous United States. At current fuel prices, we show that heat pump adoption would widely reduce heating bills in households using electric resistance, propane, or oil. Drawing on residential energy consumption data, we highlight that for these households, policy interventions should focus on overcoming barriers associated with financing and include incentives for landlords to implement heat pump upgrades in multi-unit dwellings reliant on electric heating. However, for approximately half of U.S. residential heating energy demand—households using natural gas in northern regions with cold winters—our analysis shows that heat pump adoption would significantly raise annual heating bills. In these regions and households, policies should prioritize lowering the price of electricity, such as through time-of-use pricing structures, paired with technologies like thermal storage that allow households to shift heating to lower-cost periods. More generally, targeting high electricity prices will be essential to promoting electrification across all sectors in these regions.

热泵是建筑行业脱碳的一项关键技术，但在美国的采用率仍然很低。在这里，我们根据对热泵采用对消费者取暖费和美国各地供暖使用模式的影响的全国范围分析，研究促进热泵广泛采用的政策。在目前的燃料价格下，我们表明采用热泵将广泛减少使用电阻、丙烷或石油的家庭的取暖费。根据住宅能源消耗数据，我们强调，对于这些家庭，政策干预应侧重于克服与融资相关的障碍，并包括激励房东在依赖电供暖的多单元住宅中实施热泵升级。然而，对于大约一半的美国住宅供暖能源需求——冬季寒冷的北方地区使用天然气的家庭——我们的分析表明，热泵的采用将显著提高年度供暖费用。在这些地区和家庭中，政策应优先考虑降低电价，例如通过分时电价结构，并与蓄热等技术相结合，使家庭能够将供暖转移到成本较低的时期。更广泛地说，瞄准高电价对于促进这些地区所有部门的电气化至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Against the current: Interconnectors, public opposition and the energy trilemma 反对现状：互联、公众反对和能源三难困境

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115012

Steffen Kallbekken, Sofie Waage Skjeflo, Nina Bruvik Westberg

Electricity interconnectors play a key role in integrating renewable energy and enhancing the stability of electricity markets, and are often projected to deliver net welfare gains. Yet these infrastructures can also trigger strong public opposition, raising questions about their political feasibility. This paper presents the first nationally representative, quantitative assessment of public attitudes toward international interconnectors and their perceived impacts. The analysis focuses on Norway, a country that has recently expanded its interconnector capacity and where the issue has sparked substantial public debate. Based on original survey data from 2024 (n = 1936), we find that 60 % of respondents oppose the construction of new interconnectors. Opposition is primarily related to concerns about rising electricity prices and resource nationalist attitudes. In contrast, support is strongest among those who believe interconnectors enhance the stability of supply and prices in Norway, increase public revenues, and support broader goals of electricity sharing with Europe. These findings underscore the role of both material concerns and political values, particularly around national control over energy resources, in shaping public opinion. The study contributes to a broader understanding of the trade-offs and tensions surrounding transnational energy infrastructure. It underscores the need to address both economic and energy sovereignty-related concerns in future policy design.

电力互联在整合可再生能源和增强电力市场稳定性方面发挥着关键作用，通常预计会带来净福利收益。然而，这些基础设施也可能引发公众的强烈反对，引发对其政治可行性的质疑。本文提出了第一个具有全国代表性的公众对国际互联及其感知影响的态度的定量评估。分析的重点是挪威，这个国家最近扩大了其互联能力，这个问题引发了大量的公众辩论。根据2024年的原始调查数据（n = 1936），我们发现60%的受访者反对建设新的互联网络。反对主要与对电价上涨的担忧和资源民族主义态度有关。相比之下，那些认为互联网络增强了挪威供应和价格的稳定性，增加了公共收入，并支持与欧洲共享电力的更广泛目标的人的支持最为强烈。这些发现强调了物质问题和政治价值观，特别是围绕国家对能源资源的控制，在塑造公众舆论方面的作用。这项研究有助于更广泛地理解围绕跨国能源基础设施的权衡和紧张关系。它强调需要在未来的政策设计中解决与经济和能源主权有关的问题。

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引用次数: 0

Unpacking public support for nuclear energy: A twin conjoint experiment on innovative nuclear fusion and next-generation fission technologies 拆解公众对核能的支持：创新核聚变和下一代裂变技术的双重联合实验

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115007

Merve Biten Butorac , Francesco Nicoli , Roberto Lalli

The transition to sustainable energy systems is a critical priority for European countries. Among the most debated solutions are nuclear technologies, including innovative fusion and next-generation fission power plants. However, public support for these technologies is complex and influenced by a range of factors, including economic considerations, environmental concerns, and perceived social impacts; yet the majority of the studies conducted on these technologies are observational and mono-dimensional. To address this gap, we conduct the first-ever twin conjoint experiment designed to assess public support for both fission and fusion nuclear energy development plans. The conjoint fielded among a highly representative sample of the French, German, Italian, British, Spanish and Polish populations in May 2025. Our results reveal that public preferences for nuclear energy development plans, whether for innovative fusion or next-generation fission technologies, are shaped by place (topos), governance (nomos) and effectiveness (logos) oriented considerations. Respondents slightly favored fusion rather than fission development plans.

向可持续能源系统过渡是欧洲国家的一个关键优先事项。最具争议的解决方案是核技术，包括创新的核聚变和下一代裂变发电厂。然而，公众对这些技术的支持是复杂的，并受到一系列因素的影响，包括经济考虑、环境问题和感知到的社会影响；然而，对这些技术进行的大多数研究都是观察性的和单向度的。为了弥补这一差距，我们进行了有史以来第一次双联合实验，旨在评估公众对裂变和聚变核能发展计划的支持程度。联合调查于2025年5月在法国、德国、意大利、英国、西班牙和波兰人口中进行了极具代表性的抽样调查。我们的研究结果表明，公众对核能发展计划的偏好，无论是创新的核聚变技术还是下一代裂变技术，都是由地点（topos）、治理（nomos）和有效性（logos）导向的考虑因素决定的。受访者略微倾向于核聚变而非裂变发展计划。

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引用次数: 0

German hydrogen import pathways: checking reality under uncertainty 德国氢进口路径：不确定性下的现实检验

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114973

Gonzalo Escribano , Juandiego Paredes-Gazquez , Enrique San-Martín González

Low-carbon hydrogen is considered the missing link of the energy transition, especially in hard-to-abate industrial sectors, storage and sustainable mobility, and a key component of EU's plans for both post-COVID recovery programs and decoupling from Russian hydrocarbons. Germany is the member State deploying a more active hydrogen diplomacy to secure H₂ imports to accelerate its H₂ transition and replacing grey H₂ with low-carbon H₂. The article assesses the feasibility of Germany's H₂ transition by 2030 in a context of high uncertainty by evaluating four alternative H₂ import policy pathways: a market pathway focused on minimising costs, a geoeconomic pathway prioritising EU producers and neighbours (nearshoring), a geopolitical pathway aimed at securing imports from allies (friendshoring), and a sustainable pathway focusing on green hydrogen and renewables (greenshoring). The article proposes an innovative modelling design that assesses Germany's H₂ transition by integrating stochastic simulations and combinatorial optimisation to project realistic trade scenarios with (or despite) high levels of uncertainty. It tries to complement the existing techno-economic literature on low-carbon hydrogen trade with a beyond-cost approach. The results shed light on the supply implications of the different policy dimensions included in Germany's H₂ import strategy. Unexpectedly, prioritising the environmental and climate dimension through greenshoring would attain similar results in covering German import demand as a pure market approach, and both scenarios obtain better results than prioritising proximity and geopolitics.

低碳氢被认为是能源转型中缺失的一环，特别是在难以减少的工业部门、储存和可持续交通领域，也是欧盟后疫情恢复计划和与俄罗斯碳氢化合物脱钩计划的关键组成部分。德国是部署更积极的氢气外交的成员国，以确保氢气进口，加速其氢气转型，并用低碳氢气取代灰色氢气。本文通过评估四种替代氢气进口政策途径，评估了德国到2030年在高度不确定的背景下氢气转型的可行性：一种是专注于最小化成本的市场途径，一种是优先考虑欧盟生产商和邻国的地缘经济途径（近岸），一种是旨在确保从盟友进口的地缘政治途径（友谊），一种是专注于绿色氢和可再生能源的可持续途径（绿岸）。本文提出了一种创新的模型设计，通过整合随机模拟和组合优化来评估德国的H2过渡，以预测具有（或尽管）高度不确定性的现实贸易情景。它试图用一种超成本的方法来补充现有的关于低碳氢贸易的技术经济文献。研究结果揭示了德国氢气进口战略中不同政策维度对供应的影响。出乎意料的是，通过“绿岸”优先考虑环境和气候维度，在满足德国进口需求方面与纯市场方式取得的效果相似，这两种情况都比优先考虑邻近和地缘政治获得更好的结果。

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引用次数: 0

Just transition as a pathway to energy transitions in Alaska Native communities 只是作为阿拉斯加原住民社区能源转型的途径

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114871

Farah Mneimneh , Cristina Poleacovschi , Jessica Saniguq Ullrich , Scott Feinstein , Kristen Cetin , Amanda Quarshie

In Alaska Native villages (ANVs), diesel fuel and electricity are two common energy sources which are costly for residents. To obtain these essential energy sources, householders shoulder significant energy burdens, making it difficult for them to meet other essential expenses like food and healthcare. One path that could lighten that burden is that of transitioning to renewable energy. Such a transition should reduce energy costs and provide more reliable power. It would also allow local communities to own and manage their energy utilities, thereby supporting subsistence economies and creating industrial jobs. Projects that are implementing this transition, however, remain limited. Using the Just Transition theory (JTT), the current study examines the challenges to achieving a just energy transition in ANVs. The study involved 21 in-depth interviews with participants from state, federal, academic, and non-profit sectors with experience in energy projects in rural Alaska. Data collection took place between April and November 2023. The findings highlight challenges that extend beyond financing, including the lack of modern transportation infrastructure, the extent of stakeholder interactions, and the trust level of ANVs in renewable energy. Future policies should focus on expanding financial support for renewable energy, fostering community engagement, and building local capacity.

在阿拉斯加原住民村庄（ANVs），柴油燃料和电力是两种常见的能源，对居民来说是昂贵的。为了获得这些基本能源，家庭承担了巨大的能源负担，使他们难以支付食品和医疗保健等其他基本费用。减轻这一负担的一条途径是向可再生能源过渡。这种转变将降低能源成本，提供更可靠的电力。它还将允许当地社区拥有和管理他们的能源设施，从而支持自给经济和创造工业就业机会。然而，正在实施这种转变的项目仍然有限。利用公正转换理论（JTT），本研究考察了在无人驾驶汽车中实现公正能源转换的挑战。这项研究涉及21个深度访谈，参与者来自州、联邦、学术和非营利部门，他们都有在阿拉斯加农村能源项目方面的经验。数据收集于2023年4月至11月期间进行。研究结果强调了融资之外的挑战，包括现代交通基础设施的缺乏、利益相关者的互动程度以及无人驾驶汽车对可再生能源的信任程度。未来的政策应侧重于扩大对可再生能源的财政支持、促进社区参与和建设地方能力。

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引用次数: 0