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Causal Learning: Monitoring Business Processes Based on Causal Structures. 因果学习:基于因果结构监控业务流程。
IF 2.1 3区 物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.3390/e26100867
Fernando Montoya, Hernán Astudillo, Daniela Díaz, Esteban Berríos

Conventional methods for process monitoring often fail to capture the causal relationships that drive outcomes, making hard to distinguish causal anomalies from mere correlations in activity flows. Hence, there is a need for approaches that allow causal interpretation of atypical scenarios (anomalies), allowing to identify the influence of operational variables on these anomalies. This article introduces (CaProM), an innovative technique based on causality techniques, applied during the planning phase in business process environments. The technique combines two causal perspectives: anomaly attribution and distribution change attribution. It has three stages: (1) process events are collected and recorded, identifying flow instances; (2) causal learning of process activities, building a directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) represent dependencies among variables; and (3) use of DAGs to monitor the process, detecting anomalies and critical nodes. The technique was validated with a industry dataset from the banking sector, comprising 562 activity flow plans. The study monitored causal structures during the planning and execution stages, and allowed to identify the main factor behind a major deviation from planned values. This work contributes to business process monitoring by introducing a causal approach that enhances both the interpretability and explainability of anomalies. The technique allows to understand which specific variables have caused an atypical scenario, providing a clear view of the causal relationships within processes and ensuring greater accuracy in decision-making. This causal analysis employs cross-sectional data, avoiding the need to average multiple time instances and reducing potential biases, and unlike time series methods, it preserves the relationships among variables.

传统的流程监控方法往往无法捕捉到驱动结果的因果关系,因此很难将因果异常与活动流中的单纯相关性区分开来。因此,我们需要能对非典型情景(异常情况)进行因果解释的方法,以确定操作变量对这些异常情况的影响。本文介绍了一种基于因果关系技术的创新技术(CaProM),适用于业务流程环境中的规划阶段。该技术结合了两个因果关系视角:异常归因和分布变化归因。该技术分为三个阶段:(1) 收集和记录流程事件,识别流程实例;(2) 流程活动的因果学习,构建表示变量间依赖关系的有向无环图(DAG);(3) 使用 DAG 监控流程,检测异常和关键节点。该技术通过银行业的行业数据集进行了验证,其中包括 562 个活动流程计划。该研究对计划和执行阶段的因果结构进行了监控,并确定了计划值出现重大偏差的主要原因。这项工作通过引入一种因果方法,提高了异常情况的可解释性和可解释性,从而为业务流程监控做出了贡献。通过这项技术,可以了解哪些特定变量导致了异常情况,从而清晰地了解流程中的因果关系,确保决策更加准确。这种因果分析采用横截面数据,避免了对多个时间实例求平均值的需要,减少了潜在的偏差,而且与时间序列方法不同,它保留了变量之间的关系。
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引用次数: 0
Corrected Thermodynamics of Black Holes in f(R) Gravity with Electrodynamic Field and Cosmological Constant. 具有电动场和宇宙常数的 f(R) 引力下黑洞的修正热力学。
IF 2.1 3区 物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.3390/e26100868
Mou Xu, Yuying Zhang, Liu Yang, Shining Yang, Jianbo Lu

The thermodynamics of black holes (BHs) and their corrections have become a hot topic in the study of gravitational physics, with significant progress made in recent decades. In this paper, we study the thermodynamics and corrections of spherically symmetric BHs in models f(R)=R+αR2 and f(R)=R+2γR+8Λ under the f(R) theory, which includes the electrodynamic field and the cosmological constant. Considering thermal fluctuations around equilibrium states, we find that, for both f(R) models, the corrected entropy is meaningful in the case of a negative cosmological constant (anti-de Sitter-RN spacetime) with Λ=-1. It is shown that when the BHs' horizon radius is small, thermal fluctuations have a more significant effect on the corrected entropy. Using the corrected entropy, we derive expressions for the relevant corrected thermodynamic quantities (such as Helmholtz free energy, internal energy, Gibbs free energy, and specific heat) and calculate the effects of the correction terms. The results indicate that the corrections to Helmholtz free energy and Gibbs free energy, caused by thermal fluctuations, are remarkable for small BHs. In addition, we explore the stability of BHs using specific heat. The study reveals that the corrected BH thermodynamics exhibit locally stable for both models, and corrected systems undergo a Hawking-Page phase transition. Considering the requirement on the non-negative volume of BHs, we also investigate the constraint on the EH radius of BHs.

黑洞(BHs)的热力学及其修正已成为引力物理学研究的热门话题,近几十年来取得了重大进展。本文在包含电动场和宇宙学常数的f(R)理论下,研究了f(R)=R+αR2和f(R)=R+2γR+8Λ模型中球面对称黑洞的热力学及其修正。考虑到平衡态周围的热波动,我们发现,对于这两种 f(R)模型,在负宇宙学常数(反德西特-RN 时空)的情况下,校正熵是有意义的,Λ=-1。研究表明,当黑体的视界半径较小时,热波动对修正熵的影响更为显著。利用修正熵,我们推导出了相关修正热力学量(如亥姆霍兹自由能、内能、吉布斯自由能和比热)的表达式,并计算了修正项的影响。结果表明,热波动对赫尔姆霍兹自由能和吉布斯自由能的修正作用对于小型黑体来说非常显著。此外,我们还利用比热探讨了 BH 的稳定性。研究发现,修正后的 BH 热力学在两个模型中都表现出局部稳定,修正后的系统会发生霍金-帕格相变。考虑到对BHs非负体积的要求,我们还研究了对BHs EH半径的约束。
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引用次数: 0
Meshed Context-Aware Beam Search for Image Captioning. 用于图像字幕的网格化情境感知光束搜索。
IF 2.1 3区 物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.3390/e26100866
Fengzhi Zhao, Zhezhou Yu, Tao Wang, He Zhao

Beam search is a commonly used algorithm in image captioning to improve the accuracy and robustness of generated captions by finding the optimal word sequence. However, it mainly focuses on the highest-scoring sequence at each step, often overlooking the broader image context, which can lead to suboptimal results. Additionally, beam search tends to select similar words across sequences, causing repetitive and less diverse output. These limitations suggest that, while effective, beam search can be further improved to better capture the richness and variety needed for high-quality captions. To address these issues, this paper presents meshed context-aware beam search (MCBS). In MCBS for image captioning, the generated caption context is dynamically used to influence the image attention mechanism at each decoding step, ensuring that the model focuses on different regions of the image to produce more coherent and contextually appropriate captions. Furthermore, a penalty coefficient is introduced to discourage the generation of repeated words. Through extensive testing and ablation studies across various models, our results show that MCBS significantly enhances overall model performance.

光束搜索是图像标题制作中常用的算法,通过寻找最佳词序来提高生成标题的准确性和稳健性。然而,该算法在每一步都主要关注得分最高的序列,往往忽略了更广泛的图像上下文,从而可能导致不理想的结果。此外,波束搜索往往会在不同序列中选择相似的单词,从而导致输出结果重复且缺乏多样性。这些局限性表明,波束搜索虽然有效,但还可以进一步改进,以更好地捕捉高质量字幕所需的丰富性和多样性。为了解决这些问题,本文提出了网格上下文感知波束搜索(MCBS)。在用于图像字幕的 MCBS 中,生成的字幕上下文被动态地用于影响每个解码步骤中的图像关注机制,确保模型关注图像的不同区域,以生成更连贯、更适合上下文的字幕。此外,还引入了惩罚系数,以阻止生成重复词。通过对各种模型进行广泛的测试和消减研究,我们的结果表明 MCBS 能显著提高模型的整体性能。
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引用次数: 0
Mapping Guaranteed Positive Secret Key Rates for Continuous Variable Quantum Key Distribution. 连续可变量子密钥分发的正密钥保证率映射。
IF 2.1 3区 物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.3390/e26100865
Mikhael T Sayat, Oliver Thearle, Biveen Shajilal, Sebastian P Kish, Ping Koy Lam, Nicholas J Rattenbury, John E Cater

The standard way to measure the performance of existing continuous variable quantum key distribution (CVQKD) protocols is by using the achievable secret key rate (SKR) with respect to one parameter while keeping all other parameters constant. However, this atomistic method requires many individual parameter analyses while overlooking the co-dependence of other parameters. In this work, a numerical tool is developed for comparing different CVQKD protocols while taking into account the simultaneous effects of multiple CVQKD parameters on the capability of protocols to produce positive SKRs. Using the transmittance, excess noise, and modulation amplitude parameter space, regions of positive SKR are identified to compare three discrete modulated (DM) CVQKD protocols. The results show that the M-QAM protocol outperforms the M-APSK and M-PSK protocols and that there is a non-linear increase in the capability to produce positive SKRs as the number of coherent states used for a protocol increases. The tool developed is beneficial for choosing the optimum protocol in unstable channels, such as free space, where the transmittance and excess noise fluctuate, providing a more holistic assessment of a protocol's capability to produce positive SKRs.

衡量现有连续可变量子密钥分发(CVQKD)协议性能的标准方法是,在保持所有其他参数不变的情况下,使用与一个参数相关的可实现密钥速率(SKR)。然而,这种原子论方法需要对许多单个参数进行分析,而忽略了其他参数的共同依赖性。本研究开发了一种数值工具,用于比较不同的 CVQKD 协议,同时考虑多个 CVQKD 参数对协议产生正 SKR 能力的同时影响。利用透射率、过量噪声和调制幅度参数空间,确定了正 SKR 区域,以比较三种离散调制 (DM) CVQKD 协议。结果表明,M-QAM 协议优于 M-APSK 和 M-PSK 协议,而且随着协议所用相干态数量的增加,产生正 SKR 的能力也呈非线性增长。所开发的工具有利于在自由空间等不稳定信道中选择最佳协议,因为在这些信道中,透射率和过量噪声会发生波动,从而对协议产生正 SKR 的能力进行更全面的评估。
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引用次数: 0
Finite-Blocklength Analysis of Coded Modulation with Retransmission. 带重传的编码调制的有限块长分析。
IF 2.1 3区 物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.3390/e26100863
Ming Jiang, Yi Wang, Fan Ding, Qiushi Xu

The rapid developments of 5G and B5G networks have posed higher demands on retransmission in certain scenarios. This article reviews classical finite-length coding performance prediction formulas and proposes rate prediction formulas for coded modulation retransmission scenarios. Specifically, we demonstrate that a recently proposed model for correcting these prediction formulas also exhibits high accuracy in coded modulation retransmissions. To enhance the generality of this model, we introduce a range variable Pfinal to unify the predictions with different SNRs. Finally, based on simulation results, the article puts forth recommendations specific to retransmission with a high spectral efficiency.

5G 和 B5G 网络的快速发展对某些场景下的重传提出了更高的要求。本文回顾了经典的有限长度编码性能预测公式,并针对编码调制重传场景提出了速率预测公式。具体而言,我们证明了最近提出的用于修正这些预测公式的模型在编码调制重传中也表现出很高的准确性。为了增强该模型的通用性,我们引入了一个范围变量 Pfinal,以统一不同信噪比的预测。最后,根据模拟结果,文章提出了针对高频谱效率重传的建议。
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引用次数: 0
Sex Differences in Hierarchical and Modular Organization of Functional Brain Networks: Insights from Hierarchical Entropy and Modularity Analysis. 功能性脑网络层次化和模块化组织的性别差异:层次熵和模块化分析的启示》。
IF 2.1 3区 物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.3390/e26100864
Wenyu Chen, Ling Zhan, Tao Jia

Existing studies have demonstrated significant sex differences in the neural mechanisms of daily life and neuropsychiatric disorders. The hierarchical organization of the functional brain network is a critical feature for assessing these neural mechanisms. But the sex differences in hierarchical organization have not been fully investigated. Here, we explore whether the hierarchical structure of the brain network differs between females and males using resting-state fMRI data. We measure the hierarchical entropy and the maximum modularity of each individual, and identify a significant negative correlation between the complexity of hierarchy and modularity in brain networks. At the mean level, females show higher modularity, whereas males exhibit a more complex hierarchy. At the consensus level, we use a co-classification matrix to perform a detailed investigation of the differences in the hierarchical organization between sexes and observe that the female group and the male group exhibit different interaction patterns of brain regions in the dorsal attention network (DAN) and visual network (VIN). Our findings suggest that the brains of females and males employ different network topologies to carry out brain functions. In addition, the negative correlation between hierarchy and modularity implies a need to balance the complexity in the hierarchical organization of the brain network, which sheds light on future studies of brain functions.

现有研究表明,日常生活和神经精神障碍的神经机制存在显著的性别差异。大脑功能网络的分层组织是评估这些神经机制的关键特征。但是,层次组织的性别差异尚未得到充分研究。在这里,我们利用静息态 fMRI 数据探讨了大脑网络的层次结构在女性和男性之间是否存在差异。我们测量了每个个体的分层熵和最大模块化程度,发现大脑网络的分层复杂性和模块化程度之间存在显著的负相关。在平均水平上,女性表现出更高的模块化程度,而男性则表现出更复杂的层次结构。在共识水平上,我们使用共分类矩阵对性别间层次组织的差异进行了详细研究,观察到女性组和男性组在背侧注意网络(DAN)和视觉网络(VIN)中表现出不同的脑区交互模式。我们的研究结果表明,女性和男性的大脑采用不同的网络拓扑结构来执行大脑功能。此外,层次性和模块性之间的负相关意味着需要平衡大脑网络层次组织的复杂性,这为未来的大脑功能研究提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Research on Credit Default Prediction Model Based on TabNet-Stacking. 基于 TabNet-Stacking 的信用违约预测模型研究。
IF 2.1 3区 物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-10-13 DOI: 10.3390/e26100861
Shijie Wang, Xueyong Zhang

With the development of financial technology, the traditional experience-based and single-network credit default prediction model can no longer meet the current needs. This manuscript proposes a credit default prediction model based on TabNeT-Stacking. First, use the PyTorch deep learning framework to construct an improved TabNet structure. The multi-population genetic algorithm is used to optimize the Attention Transformer automatic feature selection module. The particle swarm algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameter selection and achieve automatic parameter search. Finally, Stacking ensemble learning is used, and the improved TabNet is used to extract features. XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting), LightGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Machine), CatBoost (Category Boosting), KNN (K-NearestNeighbor), and SVM (Support Vector Machine) are selected as the first-layer base learners, and XGBoost is used as the second-layer meta-learner. The experimental results show that compared with original models, the credit default prediction model proposed in this manuscript outperforms the comparison models in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and AUC (Area Under the Curve) of credit default prediction results.

随着金融科技的发展,传统的基于经验和单一网络的信用违约预测模型已不能满足当前的需求。本稿件提出了一种基于 TabNeT-Stacking 的信用违约预测模型。首先,利用 PyTorch 深度学习框架构建改进的 TabNet 结构。利用多群体遗传算法优化注意力转换器自动特征选择模块。采用粒子群算法优化超参数选择,实现参数自动搜索。最后,使用堆叠集合学习,并使用改进的 TabNet 提取特征。选择 XGBoost(eXtreme Gradient Boosting)、LightGBM(Light Gradient Boosting Machine)、CatBoost(Category Boosting)、KNN(K-NearestNeighbor)和 SVM(Support Vector Machine)作为第一层基础学习器,XGBoost 作为第二层元学习器。实验结果表明,与原始模型相比,本文提出的信用违约预测模型在信用违约预测结果的准确度、精确度、召回率、F1 分数和 AUC(曲线下面积)等方面均优于对比模型。
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引用次数: 0
Quantum Approach for Contextual Search, Retrieval, and Ranking of Classical Information. 用于经典信息的上下文搜索、检索和排序的量子方法。
IF 2.1 3区 物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-10-13 DOI: 10.3390/e26100862
Alexander P Alodjants, Anna E Avdyushina, Dmitriy V Tsarev, Igor A Bessmertny, Andrey Yu Khrennikov

Quantum-inspired algorithms represent an important direction in modern software information technologies that use heuristic methods and approaches of quantum science. This work presents a quantum approach for document search, retrieval, and ranking based on the Bell-like test, which is well-known in quantum physics. We propose quantum probability theory in the hyperspace analog to language (HAL) framework exploiting a Hilbert space for word and document vector specification. The quantum approach allows for accounting for specific user preferences in different contexts. To verify the algorithm proposed, we use a dataset of synthetic advertising text documents from travel agencies generated by the OpenAI GPT-4 model. We show that the "entanglement" in two-word document search and retrieval can be recognized as the frequent occurrence of two words in incompatible query contexts. We have found that the user preferences and word ordering in the query play a significant role in relatively small sizes of the HAL window. The comparison with the cosine similarity metrics demonstrates the key advantages of our approach based on the user-enforced contextual and semantic relationships between words and not just their superficial occurrence in texts. Our approach to retrieving and ranking documents allows for the creation of new information search engines that require no resource-intensive deep machine learning algorithms.

量子启发算法是现代软件信息技术的一个重要方向,它使用了量子科学的启发式方法和途径。这项工作基于量子物理学中著名的类贝尔检验(Bell-like test),提出了一种用于文档搜索、检索和排序的量子方法。我们在超空间类比语言(HAL)框架中提出了量子概率论,利用希尔伯特空间进行单词和文档向量规范。量子方法允许考虑不同语境下的特定用户偏好。为了验证所提出的算法,我们使用了由 OpenAI GPT-4 模型生成的旅行社合成广告文本文件数据集。我们发现,双词文档搜索和检索中的 "纠缠 "可以被识别为两个词在不相容的查询上下文中频繁出现。我们发现,在 HAL 窗口相对较小的情况下,用户偏好和查询中的单词排序起着重要作用。与余弦相似度指标的比较表明,我们的方法的主要优势在于基于用户强制要求的词与词之间的上下文和语义关系,而不仅仅是它们在文本中的表面出现。我们的文档检索和排序方法允许创建不需要资源密集型深度机器学习算法的新型信息搜索引擎。
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引用次数: 0
Empirical Bayes Methods, Evidentialism, and the Inferential Roles They Play. 经验贝叶斯方法、实证主义及其推论作用。
IF 2.1 3区 物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.3390/e26100859
Samidha Shetty, Gordon Brittan, Prasanta S Bandyopadhyay

Empirical Bayes-based Methods (EBM) is an increasingly popular form of Objective Bayesianism (OB). It is identified in particular with the statistician Bradley Efron. The main aims of this paper are, first, to describe and illustrate its main features and, second, to locate its role by comparing it with two other statistical paradigms, Subjective Bayesianism (SB) and Evidentialism. EBM's main formal features are illustrated in some detail by schematic examples. The comparison between what Efron calls their underlying "philosophies" is by way of a distinction made between confirmation and evidence. Although this distinction is sometimes made in the statistical literature, it is relatively rare and never to the same point as here. That is, the distinction is invariably spelled out intra- and not inter-paradigmatically solely in terms of one or the other accounts. The distinction made in this paper between confirmation and evidence is illustrated by two well-known statistical paradoxes: the base-rate fallacy and Popper's paradox of ideal evidence. The general conclusion reached is that each of the paradigms has a basic role to play and all are required by an adequate account of statistical inference from a technically informed and fine-grained philosophical perspective.

基于经验贝叶斯的方法(EBM)是客观贝叶斯主义(OB)的一种日益流行的形式。它的创始人是统计学家布拉德利-埃夫隆(Bradley Efron)。本文的主要目的是:第一,描述和说明其主要特征;第二,通过与其他两种统计范式--主观贝叶斯主义(SB)和证据主义--的比较,确定其作用。EBM 的主要形式特征通过示意图例进行了详细说明。埃夫隆所说的这两种基本 "哲学 "之间的比较是通过对确认和证据的区分进行的。虽然统计文献中有时也会进行这种区分,但这种区分相对较少,而且从未达到与此处相同的程度。也就是说,这种区分总是在范式内部,而不是在范式之间,仅从其中一种或另一种说法的角度进行的。本文通过两个著名的统计悖论:基率谬误和波普尔的理想证据悖论来说明确认与证据之间的区别。本文得出的一般结论是,每种范式都有其基本作用,从技术和精细哲学的角度对统计推论进行充分说明时,所有范式都是必需的。
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引用次数: 0
Approach Based on the Ordered Fuzzy Decision Making System Dedicated to Supplier Evaluation in Supply Chain Management. 基于有序模糊决策系统的供应链管理供应商评估方法。
IF 2.1 3区 物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.3390/e26100860
Katarzyna Rudnik, Anna Chwastyk, Iwona Pisz

The selection of suppliers represents a pivotal aspect of supply chain management and has a considerable impact on the success and competitiveness of the organization in question. The selection of a suitable supplier is a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem based on a number of qualitative, quantitative, and even conflicting criteria. The aim of this paper is to propose a novel MCDM approach dedicated to the supplier evaluation problem using an ordered fuzzy decision making system. This study uses a fuzzy inference system based on IF-THEN rules with ordered fuzzy numbers (OFNs). The approach employs the concept of OFNs to account for potential uncertainty and subjectivity in the decision making process, and it also takes into account the trends of changes in assessment values and entropy in the final supplier evaluation. This paper's principal contribution is the development of a knowledge base and the demonstration of its application in an ordered fuzzy expert system for multi-criteria supplier evaluation in a dynamic and uncertain environment. The proposed system takes into account the dynamic changes in the value of assessment parameters in the overall supplier assessment, allowing for the differentiation of suppliers based on current and historical data. The utilization of OFNs in a fuzzy model then allows for a reduction in the complexity of the knowledge base in comparison to a classical fuzzy system and makes it more accessible to users, as it requires only basic arithmetic operations in the inference process. This paper presents a comprehensive framework for the assessment of suppliers against a range of criteria, including local hiring, completeness, and defect factors. Furthermore, the potential to integrate sustainability and ESG (environmental, social, and corporate governance) criteria in the assessment process adds value to the decision making framework by adapting to current trends in supply chain management.

选择供应商是供应链管理的一个关键环节,对有关组织的成功和竞争力有相当大的影响。选择合适的供应商是一个多标准决策(MCDM)问题,它基于一系列定性、定量甚至相互冲突的标准。本文旨在提出一种新颖的 MCDM 方法,利用有序模糊决策系统专门解决供应商评估问题。本研究使用了基于 IF-THEN 规则和有序模糊数(OFN)的模糊推理系统。该方法采用 OFNs 概念来考虑决策过程中潜在的不确定性和主观性,还考虑了最终供应商评价中评估值和熵的变化趋势。本文的主要贡献在于开发了一个知识库,并展示了该知识库在有序模糊专家系统中的应用,该系统适用于动态和不确定环境下的多标准供应商评估。所提议的系统考虑到了供应商整体评估中评估参数值的动态变化,允许根据当前和历史数据对供应商进行区分。与传统的模糊系统相比,在模糊模型中使用 OFN 可以降低知识库的复杂性,并使用户更容易使用,因为在推理过程中只需要进行基本的算术运算。本文提出了一个综合框架,用于根据一系列标准对供应商进行评估,包括本地招聘、完整性和缺陷因素。此外,在评估过程中整合可持续性和 ESG(环境、社会和公司治理)标准的潜力,通过适应供应链管理的当前趋势,增加了决策框架的价值。
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引用次数: 0
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