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Evaluation of the Queensland JEV vaccine program response to the 2022 Australian outbreak. 对昆士兰州乙脑疫苗计划应对2022年澳大利亚疫情的评估。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-12-20 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001730
Angus Misan, Stephen B Lambert, Hai Phung, Megan K Young

In 2022, the largest ever virgin soil outbreak of Japanese encephalitis (JE) occurred in Australia resulting in 45 reported human cases of JE, with seven fatalities. Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) was detected in 84 piggeries across Australia. In response, states implemented targeted vaccination programs for those individuals at the highest risk of JEV exposure. A mixed methods approach, including geospatial mapping of JEV vaccine distribution in Queensland, a case series of Queensland human cases and interviews with Queensland Health staff, assessed the JEV vaccination response program. Five notified human cases were reviewed, with three having occupational outdoor risk and local travel-related exposure. Vaccine coverage ranged from 0 to 7.4 doses per 100 people after 12 months of the program. The highest uptake was in southern Queensland, where 95% of the state's commercial pig population is located. The vaccination program was limited by a heavy reliance on general practitioners, vast geographical distribution of eligible populations, difficulties mobilising and engaging eligible cohorts, and suboptimal One Health collaboration. Population and climate factors make it possible for the virus to become endemic. Targeted vaccination programs remain an important strategy to protect people at the highest risk of exposure, however, program improvements are required to optimize vaccine accessibility.

2022年,澳大利亚发生了有史以来最大的处女地日本脑炎暴发,造成45例报告的人类乙脑病例,其中7例死亡。在澳大利亚84个养猪场检测到日本脑炎病毒(JEV)。作为回应,各州针对那些接触乙脑病毒风险最高的个人实施了有针对性的疫苗接种计划。一种混合方法,包括对昆士兰州乙脑病毒疫苗分布的地理空间测绘、昆士兰州人类病例系列病例和与昆士兰州卫生工作人员的访谈,评估了乙脑病毒疫苗接种应对规划。审查了5例通报的人间病例,其中3例具有职业户外风险和当地旅行相关暴露。该计划实施12个月后,疫苗覆盖率从每100人0剂到7.4剂不等。采用率最高的是昆士兰州南部,该州95%的商品猪群都在那里。由于严重依赖全科医生,符合条件的人群地理分布广泛,难以动员和吸引符合条件的队列,以及不理想的“一种健康”合作,疫苗接种计划受到限制。人口和气候因素使该病毒有可能成为地方病。有针对性的疫苗接种规划仍然是保护高危人群的一项重要战略,然而,需要改进规划以优化疫苗可及性。
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引用次数: 0
Factors associated with COVID-19 in-hospital death and COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalization in the Philippines during pre-omicron and omicron period: A case-control study (MOTIVATE-P study). 与 COVID-19 住院死亡相关的因素以及 COVID-19 疫苗在菲律宾前 Omicron 和 Omicron 期间对 COVID-19 住院治疗的有效性:病例对照研究(MOTIVATE-P 研究)。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-12-20 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001845
Takeshi Arashiro, Rontgene Solante, Ana Ria Sayo, Reby Marie Garcia, Marie Kris, Shuichi Suzuki, Greco Mark Malijan, Mary Jane Salazar, Mary Ann Salazar, Abby Ortal-Cruz, Grace Devota Go, Edna Miranda, Michelle Carandang-Cuvin, Joy Potenciano Calayo, Jinho Shin, Martin Hibberd, Koya Ariyoshi, Chris Smith

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies are limited in low- and middle-income countries. A case-control study was conducted among COVID-19 and other pneumonia patients admitted to a hospital in the Philippines during the pre-Omicron and Omicron periods. To elucidate factors associated with in-hospital death, 1782 COVID-19 patients were assessed. To estimate absolute VE for various severe outcomes, 1059 patients were assessed (869 [82.1%] COVID-19 cases; 190 [17.9%] controls). Factors associated with in-hospital death included older age, tuberculosis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.45 [95% confidence interval {95% CI} 1.69-3.57]), HIV (aOR 3.30 [95% CI 2.03-5.37]), and current smokers (aOR 2.65 [95% CI 1.72-4.10]). Pre-Omicron, the primary series provided high protection within a median of 2 months (hospitalization: 85.4% [95% CI 35.9-96.7%]; oxygen requirement: 91.0% [95% CI 49.4-98.4%]; invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV): 97.0% [95% CI 65.7-99.7%]; death: 96.5% [95% CI 67.1-99.6%]). During Omicron, the primary series provided moderate-high protection within a median of 6-9 months (hospitalization: 70.2% [95% CI 27.0-87.8%]; oxygen requirement: 71.4% [95% CI 29.3-88.4%]; IMV: 72.7% [95% CI -11.6-93.3%]; death: 58.9% [95% CI -82.8-90.8%]). Primary series VE against severe COVID-19 outcomes was consistently high for both pre-Omicron and Omicron in a setting where approximately half of the vaccinees received inactivated vaccines.

COVID-19疫苗有效性(VE)研究在低收入和中等收入国家有限。在“欧米克隆”前和“欧米克隆”期间,对菲律宾一家医院收治的COVID-19和其他肺炎患者进行了病例对照研究。为了阐明与院内死亡相关的因素,对1782例COVID-19患者进行了评估。为了估计各种严重结局的绝对VE,共评估了1059例患者(869例[82.1%]COVID-19病例;对照组190例(17.9%)。与院内死亡相关的因素包括年龄较大、结核病(校正优势比[aOR] 2.45[95%可信区间{95% CI} 1.69-3.57])、艾滋病毒(aOR 3.30 [95% CI 2.03-5.37])和当前吸烟者(aOR 2.65 [95% CI 1.72-4.10])。在omicron之前,初级系列在2个月内提供了高保护(住院率:85.4% [95% CI 35.9-96.7%];需氧量:91.0% [95% CI 49.4-98.4%];有创机械通气(IMV): 97.0% [95% CI 65.7-99.7%];死亡率:96.5% [95% CI 67.1-99.6%])。在Omicron期间,初级系列在中位6-9个月内提供了中高保护(住院:70.2% [95% CI 27.0-87.8%];需氧量:71.4% [95% CI 29.3-88.4%];Imv: 72.7% [95% ci -11.6-93.3%];死亡率:58.9% [95% CI -82.8-90.8%])。在大约一半的疫苗接种者接受灭活疫苗的情况下,pre-Omicron和Omicron的初级系列VE对COVID-19严重结局的影响一直很高。
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引用次数: 0
A six-year epidemiological study of selected zoonotic abortifacient agents in ovine and caprine foetuses in Türkiye. <s:1>基耶州绵羊和山羊胎儿人畜共患流产药物的6年流行病学研究。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001699
Murat Şevik

Abortion is one of the major threats to the livestock industry, and it also poses significant threats to public health since some of the abortifacient agents are considered zoonotic. Chlamydia abortus (C. abortus), Coxiella burnetii (C. burnetii), Listeria monocytogenes (L. monocytogenes), and Cache Valley virus (CVV) are recognized as important zoonotic and abortifacient agents of reproductive failure in small ruminants. This study determined the prevalence of these agents in ovine and caprine foetuses in Türkiye. A total of 1 226 foetuses were collected from the sheep (n = 1 144) and goats (n = 82) from different flocks between 2012 and 2017. Molecular detection methods were used to detect C. abortus, C. burnetii, and L. monocytogenes DNA and CVV RNA in aborted foetuses. In this study, C. abortus was the most prevalent abortifacient agent among the investigated ovine (264/1144) and caprine (12/82) foetuses, followed by C. burnetii with a frequency of 2.8% (32/1144) and 8.5% (7/82) in ovine and caprine foetuses, respectively. L. monocytogenes DNA was detected in 28 (2.4%) and 2 (2.4%) of the ovine and caprine foetuses, respectively. However, CVV RNA was not detected. Although the predominant mixed infection was C. abortus and C. burnetii, mixed infection of C. abortus and L. monocytogenes, and C. burnetii and L. monocytogenes were also found. The information presented in this study contributes to the understanding of the roles of C. abortus, C. burnetii, L. monocytogenes, and CVV in abortions in small ruminants, and could be beneficial for developing more effective control strategies.

堕胎是对畜牧业的主要威胁之一,它也对公众健康构成重大威胁,因为一些堕胎剂被认为是人畜共患的。流产衣原体(C. abortus)、伯纳氏柯谢氏菌(C. burnetii)、单核增生李斯特菌(L. monocytogenes)和Cache Valley病毒(CVV)被认为是小反刍动物繁殖失败的重要人畜共患和流产药物。本研究确定了这些药物在基耶省绵羊和山羊胎儿中的流行程度。2012 - 2017年共从不同羊群的绵羊(n = 1144)和山羊(n = 82)中采集胎儿1 226例。采用分子检测方法对流产胎儿进行流产梭菌、伯氏梭菌和单核增生乳杆菌的DNA和CVV RNA检测。本研究中,产弧菌在绵羊(264/1144)和山羊(12/82)胎儿中最常见,其次是伯氏弧菌(2.8%)(32/1144)和伯氏弧菌(8.5%)(7/82)。在绵羊和山羊胎中分别检出28例(2.4%)和2例(2.4%)单核细胞增生乳杆菌DNA。然而,没有检测到CVV RNA。虽然主要的混合感染是流产乳杆菌和伯纳蒂胞杆菌,但也发现了流产乳杆菌和单核增生乳杆菌、伯纳蒂胞杆菌和单核增生乳杆菌的混合感染。本研究结果有助于了解流产C.、伯氏C.、单核细胞生长L.和CVV在小反刍动物流产中的作用,并有助于制定更有效的控制策略。
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引用次数: 0
The epidemiology and healthcare costs of pregnancy-related listeriosis in British Columbia, Canada, 2005-2014. 2005-2014 年加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省妊娠相关李斯特菌病的流行病学和医疗成本。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001821
Antonela Ilic, Dimitra Panagiotoglou, Eleni Galanis, Marsha Taylor, Zahid A Butt, Shannon E Majowicz

This study investigated cases of pregnancy-related listeriosis in British Columbia (BC), Canada, from 2005 to 2014. We described all diagnosed cases in pregnant women (n = 15) and neonates (n = 7), estimated the excess healthcare costs associated with listeriosis, and calculated the fraction of stillbirths attributable to listeriosis, and mask cell sizes 1-5 due to data requirements. Pregnant women had a median gestational age of 31 weeks at listeriosis onset (range: 20-39) and on average delivered at a median of 37 weeks gestation (range: 20-40). Neonates experienced complications but no fatalities. Stillbirths occurred in 1-5 of 15 pregnant women with listeriosis, and very few (0.05-0.24%) of the 2,088 stillbirths in BC in the 10 years were attributed to listeriosis (exact numbers masked). Pregnant women and neonates with listeriosis had significantly more hospital visits, days in the hospital and physician visits than those without listeriosis. Pregnant women with listeriosis had 2.59 times higher mean total healthcare costs during their pregnancy, and neonates with listeriosis had 9.85 times higher mean total healthcare costs during their neonatal period, adjusting for various factors. Despite small case numbers and no reported deaths, these results highlight the substantial additional health service use and costs associated with individual cases of pregnancy-related listeriosis in BC.

本研究调查了2005年至2014年加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省与妊娠相关的李斯特菌病病例。我们描述了孕妇(n = 15)和新生儿(n = 7)的所有诊断病例,估计了与李斯特菌病相关的额外医疗费用,计算了因李斯特菌病导致的死产比例,并根据数据要求计算了掩膜细胞大小1-5。孕妇在李斯特菌病发病时的中位胎龄为31周(范围:20-39),平均分娩时的中位胎龄为37周(范围:20-40)。新生儿出现并发症,但无死亡病例。15例患有李斯特菌病的孕妇中有1-5例发生死产,10年不列颠哥伦比亚省2,088例死产中很少(0.05-0.24%)归因于李斯特菌病(确切数字被掩盖)。患有李斯特菌病的孕妇和新生儿的住院次数、住院天数和医生就诊次数明显多于没有患有李斯特菌病的孕妇和新生儿。经各种因素调整后,患有李斯特菌病的孕妇在妊娠期平均总医疗费用高出2.59倍,患有李斯特菌病的新生儿在新生儿期平均总医疗费用高出9.85倍。尽管病例数很少,没有死亡报告,但这些结果突出了BC省与妊娠相关的李斯特菌病个案的大量额外卫生服务使用和费用。
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引用次数: 0
Recurring bacterial strains, subclusters, and the importance of practising lessons learned. 反复出现的细菌菌株、亚群和实践经验教训的重要性。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001195
Craig W Hedberg, Melanie J Firestone, Jeff B Bender
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引用次数: 0
The effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy on neonatal outcomes. 妊娠期SARS-CoV-2感染和COVID-19疫苗接种对新生儿结局的影响
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001766
Anne J Huiberts, Ilse J Oosting, Hester E de Melker, Janneke H H M van de Wijgert, Diederick E Grobbee, Susan van den Hof, Mirjam J Knol

This study explored the effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy on neonatal outcomes among women from the general Dutch population. VASCO is an ongoing prospective cohort study aimed at assessing vaccine effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination. Pregnancy status was reported at baseline and through regular follow-up questionnaires. As an extension to the main study, all female participants who reported to have been pregnant between enrolment (May-December 2021) and January 2023 were requested to complete an additional questionnaire on neonatal outcomes. Multivariable linear and logistic regression analyses were used to determine the associations between self-reported SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy and neonatal outcomes, adjusted for age, educational level, and presence of a medical risk condition. Infection analyses were additionally adjusted for COVID-19 vaccination before and during pregnancy, and vaccination analyses for SARS-CoV-2 infection before and during pregnancy. Of 312 eligible participants, 232 (74%) completed the questionnaire. In total, 196 COVID-19 vaccinations and 115 SARS-CoV-2 infections during pregnancy were reported. Infections were mostly first infections (86; 75%), caused by the Omicron variant (95; 83%), in women who had received ≥1 vaccination prior to infection (101; 88%). SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy was not significantly associated with gestational age (β = 1.7; 95%CI: -1.6-5.0), birth weight (β = 82; -59 to 223), Apgar score <9 (odds ratio (OR): 1.3; 0.6-2.9), postpartum hospital stay (OR: 1.0; 0.6-1.8), or neonatal intensive care unit admission (OR: 0.8; 0.2-3.2). COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy was not significantly associated with gestational age (β = -0.4; -4.0 to 3.2), birth weight (β = 88; -64 to 240), Apgar score <9 (OR: 0.9; 0.4-2.3), postpartum hospital stay (OR: 0.9; 0.5-1.7), or neonatal intensive care unit admission (OR: 1.6; 0.4-8.6). In conclusion, this study did not find an effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy on any of the studied neonatal outcomes among a general Dutch, largely vaccinated, population. Together with data from other studies, this supports the safety of COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy.

本研究探讨了怀孕期间SARS-CoV-2感染和COVID-19疫苗接种对荷兰普通人群中女性新生儿结局的影响。VASCO是一项正在进行的前瞻性队列研究,旨在评估COVID-19疫苗接种的有效性。在基线和定期随访问卷中报告妊娠状况。作为主要研究的延伸,所有报告在入组(2021年5月至12月)至2023年1月期间怀孕的女性参与者被要求完成一份关于新生儿结局的额外问卷。多变量线性和逻辑回归分析用于确定妊娠期间自我报告的SARS-CoV-2感染或COVID-19疫苗接种与新生儿结局之间的关系,并根据年龄、教育水平和是否存在医疗风险状况进行调整。感染分析还对怀孕前和怀孕期间接种COVID-19疫苗进行了调整,并对怀孕前和怀孕期间接种SARS-CoV-2疫苗进行了调整。在312名符合条件的参与者中,有232人(74%)完成了问卷调查。总共报告了196例COVID-19疫苗接种和115例妊娠期SARS-CoV-2感染。感染以首次感染为主(86例;75%),由欧米克隆变异引起(95%;83%),在感染前接受过≥1次疫苗接种的妇女中(101;88%)。妊娠期SARS-CoV-2感染与胎龄无显著相关性(β = 1.7;95%CI: -1.6-5.0),出生体重(β = 82;-59 ~ 223), Apgar评分β = -0.4;-4.0 ~ 3.2),出生体重(β = 88;-64到240),阿普加评分
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引用次数: 0
Author response to: Recurring bacterial strains, subclusters, and the importance of practising lessons learned. 作者回复:重复出现的细菌菌株、亚群和实践经验教训的重要性。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001171
G Sean Stapleton, Joshua M Brandenburg, Megin Nichols
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引用次数: 0
Space scan statistics to identify clusters of neonatal mortality associated with bacterial sepsis. 空间扫描统计以确定与细菌性败血症相关的新生儿死亡率集群。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-12-13 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001663
Daniela Testoni Costa-Nobre, Ana Sílvia Scavacini Marinonio, Milton Harumi Miyoshi, Adriana Sanudo, Kelsy Catherina Nemo Areco, Mandira Daripa Kawakami, Rita de Cássia Xavier Balda, Tulio Konstantyner, Carina Nunes Vieira E Oliveira, Paulo Bandiera-Paiva, Rosa Maria Vieira de Freitas, Monica La Porte Teixeira, Bernadette Waldvogel, Maria Fernanda de Almeida, Ruth Guinsburg, Carlos Roberto Veiga Kiffer

Our study aim was to identify high-risk areas of neonatal mortality associated with bacterial sepsis in the state of São Paulo, Southeast Brazil. We used a population-based study applying retrospective spatial scan statistics with data extracted from birth certificates linked to death certificates. All live births from mothers residing in São Paulo State from 2004 to 2020 were included. Spatial analysis using the Poisson model was adopted to scan high-rate clusters of neonatal mortality associated with bacterial sepsis (WHO-ICD10 A32.7, A40, A41, P36, P37.2 in any line of the death certificate). We found a prevalence of neonatal death associated with bacterial sepsis of 2.3/1000 live births. Clusters of high neonatal mortality associated with bacterial sepsis were identified mainly in the southeast region of the state, with four of them appearing as cluster areas for all birth weight categories (<1500 g, 1500 to <2500 g and ≥ 2500 g). The spatial analysis according to the birth weight showed some overlapping in the detected clusters, suggesting shared risk factors that need to be explored. Our study highlights the ongoing challenge of neonatal sepsis in the most developed state of a middle-income country and the importance of employing statistical techniques, including spatial methods, for enhancing surveillance and intervention strategies.

我们的研究旨在确定巴西东南部圣保罗州与细菌性败血症相关的新生儿死亡高风险地区。我们采用了基于人口的研究方法,利用从出生证明和死亡证明中提取的数据进行回顾性空间扫描统计。研究纳入了 2004 年至 2020 年居住在圣保罗州的所有活产婴儿。采用泊松模型进行空间分析,扫描与细菌性败血症相关的新生儿死亡率高的群组(死亡证明中任何一行的 WHO-ICD10 A32.7、A40、A41、P36、P37.2)。我们发现,与细菌性败血症相关的新生儿死亡发生率为 2.3/1000。与细菌性败血症相关的新生儿高死亡率集群主要出现在该州的东南部地区,其中有四个集群出现在所有出生体重类别的新生儿中 (
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引用次数: 0
Lizards as sentinels for the distribution of Angiostrongylus cantonensis. 蜥蜴作为广东管圆线虫分布的哨兵。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-12-13 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000931
Lucia Anettová, Vojtech Baláž, Radovan Coufal, Michal Horsák, Elena Izquierdo-Rodriguez, Anna Šipková, Pilar Foronda, David Modrý

The rat lungworm Angiostrongylus cantonensis is a zoonotic metastrongyloid nematode currently considered an emerging pathogen. Originating in Southeast Asia, this nematode has spread to tropical and subtropical parts of the world via its invasive rodent and gastropod hosts.On the island of Tenerife in the Canary archipelago, the A. cantonensis invasion was recognized more than a decade ago. The endemic lizard Gallotia galloti has been identified as a paratenic host of this nematode in the Canary Island ecosystem. Because this lizard species is the most abundant reptile in Tenerife, we tested its suitability as a possible sentinel for A. cantonensis presence. Lizards were captured alive in nine localities, spanning an environmental gradient across the island. Tail muscle tissue was obtained by provoked caudal autotomy and tested for the nematode infection by a species-specific qPCR. Infection intensities were assessed by detecting A. cantonensis DNA quantities based on a calibrated standard curve. Of the 129 samples tested, 31 were positive. The prevalence varied among localities, with the highest (63.6%) recorded in a humid laurel forest. Even though the prevalence in Valle San Lorenzo was the lowest, this is the first record of A. cantonensis from the arid south of Tenerife. Variation in prevalence at different localities was significantly and positively correlated with increasing vegetation cover and negatively correlated with seasonal variability of precipitation, as determined by Spearman correlation coefficients. Fisher's exact test was used to determine the variation in the prevalence of A. cantonensis among adult males, females, and juveniles and showed no significant difference. Also, there was no significant difference in infection intensity between males and females (as determined by GEE-g). We demonstrated that provoking caudal autotomy can be an effective non-lethal method of A. cantonensis mapping in island ecosystems with abundant lizard species, particularly those with a sharp climatic and vegetation gradient, from xeric to humid conditions.

大鼠肺线虫广东管圆线虫是一种人畜共患的超圆型线虫,目前被认为是一种新兴的病原体。这种线虫起源于东南亚,通过其入侵的啮齿动物和腹足动物宿主传播到世界的热带和亚热带地区。在加那利群岛的特内里费岛上,广东古猿的入侵早在十多年前就被发现了。在加那利岛的生态系统中,特有的蜥蜴加洛蒂亚已经被确定为这种线虫的副病原宿主。由于这种蜥蜴是特内里费岛最丰富的爬行动物,我们测试了它作为广东古猿存在的可能哨兵的适用性。在九个地方捕获了活蜥蜴,跨越了整个岛屿的环境梯度。通过诱发尾端自切获得尾部肌肉组织,并通过物种特异性qPCR检测线虫感染。根据标定的标准曲线检测广东按蚊DNA数量,评估感染强度。在129个检测样本中,31个呈阳性。不同地区发病率不同,以湿润月桂林中最高(63.6%)。尽管在圣洛伦索山谷的流行率最低,但这是特内里费岛干旱南部首次记录到广东古猿。Spearman相关系数表明,不同地区流行率的变化与植被覆盖度的增加呈显著正相关,与降水的季节变异呈显著负相关。采用Fisher精确检验法测定广东按蚊在成年雄、雌、幼虫间的流行率差异,无显著性差异。此外,男性和女性之间的感染强度无显著差异(由GEE-g测定)。我们证明,在蜥蜴种类丰富的岛屿生态系统中,特别是在气候和植被梯度从干旱到潮湿的条件下,激发尾鳍自切可以是一种有效的非致死方法。
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引用次数: 0
Development of a nomogram for high antibody titre of COVID-19 convalescent plasma. 新冠肺炎恢复期血浆高抗体滴度图的建立。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-12-11 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001638
Shichun Wang, Jie Yan, Min Song, Zhenrui Xue, Zerong Wang, Ronghua Diao, Qi Liu, Qianying Ruan, Chunyan Yao

This study aimed to develop a predictive tool for identifying individuals with high antibody titers crucial for recruiting COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) donors and to assess the quality and storage changes of CCP. A convenience sample of 110 plasma donors was recruited, of which 75 met the study criteria. Using univariate logistic regression and random forest, 6 significant factors were identified, leading to the development of a nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) evaluated the nomogram's discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. The nomogram indicated that females aged 18 to 26, blood type O, receiving 1 to 2 COVID-19 vaccine doses, experiencing 2 symptoms during infection, and donating plasma 41 to 150 days after symptom onset had higher likelihoods of high antibody titres. Nomogram's AUC was 0.853 with good calibration. DCA showed clinical benefit within 9% ~ 90% thresholds. CCP quality was qualified, with stable antibody titres over 6 months (P > 0.05). These findings highlight developing predictive tools to identify suitable CCP donors and emphasize the stability of CCP quality over time, suggesting its potential for long-term storage.

本研究旨在开发一种预测工具,用于识别对招募COVID-19恢复期血浆(CCP)供者至关重要的高抗体滴度个体,并评估CCP的质量和储存变化。我们招募了110名血浆捐献者,其中75人符合研究标准。利用单变量逻辑回归和随机森林,确定了6个显著因素,从而形成了一个正态图。受试者工作特征曲线、校准图和决策曲线分析(DCA)评估了nomogram鉴别、校准和临床应用。形态图显示,18 ~ 26岁、O型血、接种1 ~ 2剂新冠肺炎疫苗、感染期间出现2次症状、在症状出现后41 ~ 150天献血的女性高抗体滴度可能性较高。Nomogram AUC为0.853,校准良好。DCA在9% ~ 90%的阈值范围内显示临床获益。CCP质量合格,抗体效价在6个月内稳定(P < 0.05)。这些发现强调了开发预测工具来确定合适的CCP供体,并强调CCP质量随时间的稳定性,表明其长期储存的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
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Epidemiology and Infection
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