Epidemiology and Infection最新文献

This retrospective study compared central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) rates per 1 000 central line days, and overall mortality before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in adult, paediatric, and neonatal ICU patients at King Abdul-Aziz Medical City-Riyadh who had a central line and were diagnosed with CLABSI according to the National Healthcare Safety Network standard definition. The study spanned between January 2018 and December 2019 (pre-pandemic), and January 2020 and December 2021 (pandemic). SARS-CoV-2 was confirmed by positive RT-PCR testing. The study included 156 CLABSI events and 46 406 central line days; 52 and 22 447 (respectively) in pre-pandemic, and 104 and 23 959 (respectively) during the pandemic. CLABSI rates increased by 2.02 per 1 000 central line days during the pandemic period (from 2.32 to 4.34, p < 0.001). Likewise, overall mortality rates increased by 0.86 per 1 000 patient days (from 0.93 to 1.79, p = 0.003). Both CLABSI rates (6.18 vs. 3.7, p = 0.006) and overall mortality (2.72 vs. 1.47, p = 0.014) were higher among COVID-19 patients compared to non-COVID-19 patients. The pandemic was associated with a substantial increase in CLABSI-associated morbidity and mortality.

International travel is thought to be a major risk factor for developing gastrointestinal (GI) illness for UK residents. Here, we present an analysis of routine laboratory and exposure surveillance data from North East (NE) England, describing the destination-specific contribution that international travel makes to the regional burden of GI infection.Laboratory reports of common notifiable enteric infections were linked to exposure data for cases reported between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2022. Demographic characteristics of cases were described, and rates per 100,000 visits were determined using published estimates of overseas visits from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) International Passenger Survey (IPS).About 34.9% of cases reported international travel during their incubation period between 2013 and 2022, although travel-associated cases were significantly reduced (>80%) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Between 2013 and 2019, half of Shigella spp. and non-typhoidal Salmonella infections and a third of Giardia sp., Cryptosporidium spp., and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections were reported following travel. Rates of illness were highest in travellers returning from Africa and Asia (107.8 and 61.1 per 100,000 visits), with high rates also associated with tourist resorts like Turkey, Egypt, and the Dominican Republic (386.4-147.9 per 100,000 visits).International travel is a major risk factor for the development of GI infections. High rates of illness were reported following travel to both destinations, which are typically regarded as high-risk and common tourist resorts. This work highlights the need to better understand risks while travelling to support the implementation of guidance and control measures to reduce the burden of illness in returning travellers.

Syphilis remains a serious public health problem in mainland China that requires attention, modelling to describe and predict its prevalence patterns can help the government to develop more scientific interventions. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, long short-term memory network (LSTM) model, hybrid SARIMA-LSTM model, and hybrid SARIMA-nonlinear auto-regressive models with exogenous inputs (SARIMA-NARX) model were used to simulate the time series data of the syphilis incidence from January 2004 to November 2023 respectively. Compared to the SARIMA, LSTM, and SARIMA-LSTM models, the median absolute deviation (MAD) value of the SARIMA-NARX model decreases by 352.69%, 4.98%, and 3.73%, respectively. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value decreases by 73.7%, 23.46%, and 13.06%, respectively. The root mean square error (RMSE) value decreases by 68.02%, 26.68%, and 23.78%, respectively. The mean absolute error (MAE) value decreases by 70.90%, 23.00%, and 21.80%, respectively. The hybrid SARIMA-NARX and SARIMA-LSTM methods predict syphilis cases more accurately than the basic SARIMA and LSTM methods, so that can be used for governments to develop long-term syphilis prevention and control programs. In addition, the predicted cases still maintain a fairly high level of incidence, so there is an urgent need to develop more comprehensive prevention strategies.

Development of gastrointestinal illness after animal contact at petting farms is well described, as are factors such as handwashing and facility design that may modify transmission risk. However, further field evidence on other behaviours and interventions in the context of Cryptosporidium outbreaks linked to animal contact events is needed. Here, we describe a large outbreak of Cryptosporidium parvum (C. parvum) associated with a multi-day lamb petting event in the south-west of England in 2023 and present findings from a cohort study undertaken to investigate factors associated with illness. Detailed exposure questionnaires were distributed to email addresses of 647 single or multiple ticket bookings, and 157 complete responses were received. The outbreak investigation identified 23 laboratory-confirmed primary C. parvum cases. Separately, the cohort study identified 83 cases of cryptosporidiosis-like illness. Associations between illness and entering a lamb petting pen (compared to observing from outside the pen; odds ratio (OR) = 2.28, 95 per cent confidence interval (95% CI) 1.17 to 4.53) and self-reported awareness of diarrhoeal and vomiting disease transmission risk on farm sites at the time of visit (OR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.84) were observed. In a multivariable model adjusted for household clustering, awareness of disease transmission risk remained a significant protective factor (adjusted OR (aOR) = 0.07, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.78). The study demonstrates the likely under-ascertainment of cryptosporidiosis through laboratory surveillance and provides evidence of the impact that public health messaging could have.

We analyzed data from a community-based acute respiratory illness study involving K-12 students and their families in southcentral Wisconsin and assessed household transmission of two common seasonal respiratory viruses - human metapneumovirus (HMPV) and human coronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 (HCOV). We found secondary infection rates of 12.2% (95% CI: 8.1%-17.4%) and 19.2% (95% CI: 13.8%-25.7%) for HMPV and HCOV, respectively. We performed individual- and family-level regression models and found that HMPV transmission was positively associated age of the index case (individual model: p = .016; family model: p = .004) and HCOV transmission was positively associated with household density (family model: p = .048). We also found that the age of the non-index case was negatively associated with transmission of both HMPV (individual model: p = .049) and HCOV (individual model: p = .041), but we attributed this to selection bias from the original study design. Understanding household transmission of common respiratory viruses like HMPV and HCOV may help to broaden our understanding of the overall disease burden and establish methods to prevent the spread of disease from low- to high-risk populations.

Brucellosis, a global zoonosis, is endemic in Israel. We used a national database of culture-confirmed cases (2004-2022) to analyse the trends of brucellosis. Of 2,489 unique cases, 99.8% were bacteraemic, 64% involved males, and the mean age was 30.5 years. Brucella melitensis was the dominant species (99.6%). Most cases occurred among the Arab sector (84.9%) followed by the Jewish (8.5%) and Druze (5.5%) sectors. The average annual incidence rates overall and for the Arab, Druze, and Jewish sectors were 1.6/100,000, 6.6/100,000, 5.5/100,000, and 0.18/100,000, respectively. The annual incidence rates among the Arab (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 36.4) and the Druze (IRR = 29.6) sectors were significantly higher than among the Jewish sector (p < 0.001). The highest incidence rates among the Arab sector occurred in the South District, peaking at 41.0/100,000 in 2012. The frequencies of B. melitensis isolated biotypes (biotype 1 - 69.1%, biotype 2 - 26.0%, and biotype 3 - 4.3%) differed from most Middle Eastern and European countries. A significant switch between the dominant biotypes was noted in the second half of the study period. Efforts for control and prevention should be sustained and guided by a One Health approach mindful of the differential trends and changing epidemiology.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) transmission occurs in ruminant contact settings and can lead to post-diarrheal hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS). We investigated whether exposure setting (ruminant exposure from living or working on a farm, visiting a farm or animal contact venue, or both) influenced HUS development among individuals with laboratory-confirmed STEC infections using Minnesota surveillance data from 2010 to 2019. Logistic regression was performed to determine whether exposure setting was associated with HUS independent of age, gender, stx2 gene detection, and county ruminants per capita. Among confirmed STEC cases, ruminant exposure only from living or working on a farm was not significantly associated with HUS compared to cases without any ruminant exposure (OR: 1.25; 95% CI: 0.51, 3.04). However, ruminant exposure only from visiting a farm or public animal contact venue was associated with HUS (OR: 2.53; 95% CI: 1.50, 4.24). Exposure from both settings was also associated with HUS (OR: 3.71; 95% CI: 1.39, 9.90). Exposure to ruminants when visiting farms or animal contact venues is an important predictor of HUS, even among people who live or work on farms with ruminants. All people, regardless of routine ruminant exposure, should take care in settings with ruminants to avoid infection with STEC.

It is so far unclear how the COVID-19 winter waves started and what should be done to prevent possible future waves. In this study, we deciphered the dynamic course of a winter wave in 2021 in Saxony, a state in Eastern Germany neighbouring the Czech Republic and Poland. The study was carried out through the integration of multiple virus genomic epidemiology approaches to track transmission chains, identify emerging variants and investigate dynamic changes in transmission clusters. For identified local variants of interest, functional evaluations were performed. Multiple long-lasting community transmission clusters have been identified acting as driving force for the winter wave 2021. Analysis of the dynamic courses of two representative clusters indicated a similar transmission pattern. However, the transmission cluster caused by a locally occurring new Delta variant AY.36.1 showed a distinct transmission pattern, and functional analyses revealed a replication advantage of it. This study indicated that long-lasting community transmission clusters starting since early autumn caused by imported or locally occurring variants all contributed to the development of the 2021 winter wave. The information we achieved might help future pandemic prevention.

China is still among the 30 high-burden tuberculosis (TB) countries in the world. Few studies have described the spatial epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary TB (PTB) in Jiangsu Province. The registered incidence data of PTB patients in 95 counties of Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2021 were collected from the Tuberculosis Management Information System. Three-dimensional spatial trends, spatial autocorrelation, and spatial-temporal scan analysis were conducted to explore the spatial clustering pattern of PTB. From 2011 to 2021, a total of 347,495 newly diagnosed PTB cases were registered. The registered incidence rate of PTB decreased from 49.78/100,000 in 2011 to 26.49/100,000 in 2021, exhibiting a steady downward trend (χ² = 414.22, P < 0.001). The average annual registered incidence rate of PTB was higher in the central and northern regions. Moran's I indices of the registered incidence of PTB were all >0 (P< 0.05) except in 2016, indicating a positive spatial correlation overall. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that 'high-high' clusters were mainly distributed in northern Jiangsu, and 'low-low' clusters were mainly concentrated in southern Jiangsu. The results of this study assist in identifying settings and locations of high TB risk and inform policy-making for PTB control and prevention.