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Increased detection of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O26: Environmental exposures and clinical outcomes, England, 2014-2023. 产志贺毒素大肠杆菌(STEC) O26检测增加:环境暴露和临床结果,英国,2014-2023。
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100654
Lucy Findlater, Orlagh Quinn, Amy Douglas, Clare Sawyer, Victoria J Hall, Claire Jenkins, Sooria Balasegaram

In England, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) serogroup O26 has recently emerged as a public health concern, despite fewer than half of diagnostic laboratories in England having the capability to detect non-O157 STEC. STEC O26 cases frequently report exposure to farms or nurseries. We describe the epidemiology of STEC O26 and examine evidence for a relationship between O26 and exposure to these settings. We analysed national surveillance data describing laboratory-confirmed STEC cases and public health incidents over the past 10 years to explore the incidence, clinical outcomes, and association with farms and nurseries for STEC O26 cases compared to STEC O157 and other serogroups. Between 2014 and 2023, the proportion of STEC notifications which were STEC O26 increased from 2% (19/956) to 12% (234/1946). After adjusting for age, we found no difference in the likelihood of farm or nursery attendance between O26 and O157 cases but a significantly higher risk of HUS in O26 (adjusted risk ratio 3.13 (2.18-4.51)). We demonstrate that STEC O26 is associated with the same risk of farm or nursery attendance as other STEC serogroups but a higher risk of severe morbidity. Our findings reinforce the need for improved surveillance of non-O157 STEC.

在英国,产志贺毒素的大肠杆菌(STEC)血清群O26最近已成为一个公共卫生问题,尽管英国只有不到一半的诊断实验室有能力检测非o157大肠杆菌。产志毒素O26病例经常报告接触农场或托儿所。我们描述了产志毒素大肠杆菌O26的流行病学,并检查了O26与暴露于这些环境之间关系的证据。我们分析了国家监测数据,描述了过去10年实验室确诊的STEC病例和公共卫生事件,以探索与STEC O157和其他血清组相比,STEC O26病例的发病率、临床结果以及与农场和托儿所的关系。2014年至2023年间,STEC O26通报的比例从2%(19/956)增加到12%(234/1946)。在调整年龄后,我们发现O26和O157病例在农场或托儿所就诊的可能性没有差异,但O26病例发生溶血性尿毒综合征的风险明显更高(调整后的风险比为3.13(2.18-4.51))。我们证明,与其他产志毒素大肠杆菌血清组相比,产志毒素O26与农场或托儿所看护的风险相同,但严重发病的风险更高。我们的研究结果加强了对非o157产志毒素大肠杆菌加强监测的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Tracking the Evolutionary Footprint of Mpox in West Africa: Phylogenetic and Clade Analysis. 追踪西非麻疹的进化足迹:系统发育和进化分析。
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100411
Elijah Kolawole Oladipo, Stephen Feranmi Adeyemo, James Akinwumi Ogunniran, Possible Okikiola Popoola, Victoria Ajike Alabi, Joshua Opanike
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引用次数: 0
Risk factors for acute gastrointestinal illness in a Canadian population-based linkage cohort. 加拿大人群连锁队列中急性胃肠道疾病的危险因素
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100666
Anthony Justin Gilding, Ian Young, Lauren E Grant, M Anne Harris

Acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) remains a significant public health issue and differences in risk based on a comprehensive set of sociodemographic characteristics remain poorly understood. Thus, this retrospective cohort study was conducted to identify the risk of incurring an AGI-related emergency department (ED) visit or inpatient hospitalization based on various sociodemographic factors. Linked respondents of Canadian Community Health Survey cycles 2.1, 3.1, and 2007-2015 were followed from their interview date until 31 December 2017, using the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS) and the Discharge Abstract Database (DAD) to capture emergency ED visits and hospitalizations due to AGI, respectively. Effects of identified potential risk factors for the incidence of AGI-related ED visits or hospitalizations were estimated Cox proportional hazards regression to generate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 190,700 respondents were linked to NACRS and 470,700 were linked to DAD. Six per cent of respondents visited an ED and 2% were hospitalized for AGI. Fully-adjusted estimates revealed that high-risk groups with the strongest effects were people with poor self-perceived health (ED visits: HR 1.47 (95% CI 1.40-1.54), hospitalizations: HR 1.92 (95% CI 1.82-2.02)), and people living with at least one chronic condition (ED visits: HR 1.54 (95% CI 1.47-1.61), hospitalizations: HR 1.65 (95% CI 1.57-1.73)). This study identified risk factors for requiring hospital care for AGI in the Canadian context. Additional research is needed to investigate mechanisms for differential exposure to pathogens by sociodemographic characteristics that might lead to increased risks of AGI.

急性胃肠道疾病(AGI)仍然是一个重大的公共卫生问题,基于一套全面的社会人口特征的风险差异仍然知之甚少。因此,本回顾性队列研究旨在根据各种社会人口因素确定发生与agi相关的急诊科(ED)就诊或住院的风险。从访谈日期至2017年12月31日,对加拿大社区卫生调查周期2.1、3.1和2007-2015的相关受访者进行随访,分别使用国家门诊护理报告系统(NACRS)和出院摘要数据库(DAD)记录因AGI导致的急诊和住院情况。已确定的潜在危险因素对agi相关急诊科就诊或住院发生率的影响进行了Cox比例风险回归估计,以产生95%置信区间(ci)的风险比(hr)。共有190,700名受访者与NACRS有关,470,700名受访者与DAD有关。6%的受访者去了急诊科,2%的人因AGI住院。完全调整后的估计显示,影响最大的高危人群是自我感觉健康状况较差的人(ED就诊:HR 1.47 (95% CI 1.40-1.54),住院:HR 1.92 (95% CI 1.82-2.02)),以及至少患有一种慢性疾病的人(ED就诊:HR 1.54 (95% CI 1.47-1.61),住院:HR 1.65 (95% CI 1.57-1.73))。本研究确定了加拿大AGI患者需要住院治疗的危险因素。需要进一步的研究来调查可能导致AGI风险增加的不同社会人口特征暴露于病原体的机制。
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引用次数: 0
ESBL-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae gut colonisation and subsequent health-care associated bacteraemia in preterm newborns: a descriptive cohort with nested case-control study. 产esbl肺炎克雷伯菌肠道定植和随后的保健相关菌血症在早产新生儿:一项巢式病例对照研究的描述性队列
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100630
Moussa Benboubker, Bouchra Oumokhtar, Driss Oukachou, Samira Elfakir, Salim Belchkar, Manal Rossi, Abdelhamid Massik, Ghita Yahyaoui, Kaoutar Moutaouakkil, Fouzia Hmami

This descriptive and exploratory observational case series examined intestinal colonisation and subsequent bacteraemia due to ESBL-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae (ESBL-Kp) in preterm neonates in Morocco. Prospective bacteriological cultures and antibiotic susceptibility testing were supported by phenotypic methods, including Brilliance ESBL Agar and the NG-Test CARBA-5 assay, for the rapid detection of ESBL and carbapenemase producers. Molecular analysis using PCR was also undertaken to identify specific resistance genes. A total of 567 rectal swabs were collected from 339 preterm neonates, yielding 293 K. pneumoniae isolates. ESBL-producing strains were identified in 53.6% of the neonates (182/339). Detected resistance genes included blaSHV (26.3%), blaCTX-M-1 (42.8%), blaTEM (30.2%), blaOXA-48 (50.0%), blaNDM(15.3%), and blaVIM (4.9%). Principal risk factors for colonisation were low birth weight (OR 1.69), very preterm birth (OR 6.24), enteral tube feeding (OR 2.02), and prolonged use of third-generation cephalosporins (OR 1.26). Among the neonates studied, 32 (9.4%) developed healthcare-associated bacteraemia, with 56.2% of these cases preceded by intestinal colonisation with ESBL-Kp. Clinically, severe respiratory distress and alveolar haemorrhage were strongly associated with increased mortality (aRR = 29.32 and 4.45, respectively). The findings highlight the clinical importance of early screening to guide infection control and antimicrobial stewardship in neonatal intensive care settings.

该描述性和探索性观察性病例系列研究了摩洛哥早产儿因产esbl肺炎克雷伯菌(ESBL-Kp)引起的肠道定植和随后的菌血症。表型方法支持前瞻性细菌学培养和抗生素敏感性试验,包括Brilliance ESBL琼脂和NG-Test CARBA-5测定,用于快速检测ESBL和碳青霉烯酶产生物。还采用PCR进行分子分析,以确定特定的抗性基因。共收集339例早产儿直肠拭子567份,分离出293株肺炎克雷伯菌。53.6%的新生儿(182/339)检出产esbl菌株。检测到的耐药基因包括blaSHV(26.3%)、blaCTX-M-1(42.8%)、blaTEM(30.2%)、blaxa -48(50.0%)、blaNDM(15.3%)和blaVIM(4.9%)。菌落的主要危险因素是低出生体重(OR 1.69)、非常早产(OR 6.24)、肠内管喂养(OR 2.02)和长期使用第三代头孢菌素(OR 1.26)。在所研究的新生儿中,32名(9.4%)出现了与医疗保健相关的菌血症,其中56.2%的病例在肠道定植ESBL-Kp之前。临床上,严重呼吸窘迫和肺泡出血与死亡率增加密切相关(aRR分别为29.32和4.45)。研究结果强调了早期筛查在新生儿重症监护环境中指导感染控制和抗菌药物管理的临床重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Mask wearing by COVID-19 index cases reduces SARS-CoV-2 transmission to household contacts. COVID-19指数病例佩戴口罩可减少SARS-CoV-2向家庭接触者的传播。
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100642
Pere Godoy, Jessica Pardos, Manuel García Cenoz, Ignacio Parrón, Iván Martínez-Baz, Joaquim Ferras, Cristina Rius, Sofia Godoy, Diana Toledo, Inma Sanz, Nuria Follia, Carme Miret, Miquel Alsedà, Pedro Plans-Rubió, Monica Carol, Nuria Bes, Maria-Rosa Sala, Joan Caylà, Carmen Muñoz-Almagro, Jesús Castilla, Angela Domínguez

The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact on SARS-CoV-2 transmission prevention of mask wearing by index cases and their household contacts. A prospective study of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to household contacts aged ≥18 years was conducted between May 2022 and February 2024 in Spain. Contacts underwent a rapid antigen test on day zero and a real-time polymerase chain reaction test 7 days later if results were negative. The dependent variable was SARS-CoV-2 infection in contacts. Index case and contact mask use effects were estimated using the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI). Studied were 230 household contacts, mean (standard deviation) age 53.3 (16.6) years, and 47.8% (110/230) women. Following index case diagnosis, 36.1% of contacts (83/230) used a mask, and 54.3% (125/230) were exposed to a mask-wearing index case. Infection incidence in contacts was 45.2% (104/230) and was lower in contacts exposed to mask-wearing index cases (36.0% vs. 56.2%; p < 0.002). The logistic regression model indicated a protective effect for contacts of both index case mask use (aOR = 0.31; 95% CI: 0.15-0.65) and vaccination (aOR = 0.24; 95% CI: 0.08-0.77). Index case mask use reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission to contacts, while mask effectiveness was not observed for contacts.

本研究的目的是评估指示病例及其家庭接触者佩戴口罩对预防SARS-CoV-2传播的影响。在西班牙进行了2022年5月至2024年2月期间SARS-CoV-2向年龄≥18岁的家庭接触者传播的前瞻性研究。接触者在第0天进行快速抗原检测,如果结果为阴性,7天后进行实时聚合酶链反应检测。因变量为接触者中SARS-CoV-2感染。使用校正优势比(aOR)及其95%置信区间(CI)估计指数病例和接触口罩使用效应。研究对象为230名家庭接触者,平均(标准差)年龄为53.3(16.6)岁,女性占47.8%(110/230)。指示病例确诊后,36.1%(83/230)的接触者使用过口罩,54.3%(125/230)的接触者曾接触过佩戴口罩的指示病例。接触者感染发生率为45.2%(104/230),接触者感染发生率较低(36.0%比56.2%
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引用次数: 0
Text message surveillance for rapid salmonella outbreak detection: a novel public health approach. 快速检测沙门氏菌爆发的短信监测:一种新的公共卫生方法。
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-09-29 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100617
Neil Franklin, Kirsty Hope, Kathryn Glass, Martyn Kirk

In large public health jurisdictions, only a small proportion of people infected with Salmonella are interviewed due to resource constraints. As such, sources of illness are rarely found, and preventative action not implemented. We trialled alternative methods to contact notified salmonellosis cases to collect information on exposures and risks, focusing particularly on the feasibility of SMS (short message service)-based surveillance. Over five-years period we sequentially mailed letters, sent online surveys, and then text messages. The SMS approach was designed to assess the efficiency of a two-way personalized messaging model in gathering actionable public health data. The personalized SMS-follow-up model demonstrated the highest success: 56% of cases responded, enabling the identification and intervention of 10 distinct point-source outbreaks of Salmonella. SMS-based surveillance offers a novel, efficient, and acceptable method for collecting critical food exposure data in Salmonella cases. In settings where resources are constrained, SMS can complement traditional case follow-up methods, enhancing both the timeliness and effectiveness of outbreak detection. Integrating this follow-up with routine clinical care could further enhance the acceptance and success of this method. This study highlights the promise of SMS in streamlining surveillance efforts and warrants further exploration for application to other infectious diseases.

在大型公共卫生辖区,由于资源限制,只有一小部分沙门氏菌感染者接受了采访。因此,很少发现疾病的根源,也没有采取预防行动。我们试验了接触已通报沙门氏菌病病例的替代方法,以收集有关暴露和风险的信息,特别侧重于基于短信服务的监测的可行性。在5年的时间里,我们依次寄信,发送在线调查,然后发短信。SMS方法旨在评估双向个性化消息传递模式在收集可操作的公共卫生数据方面的效率。个性化短信-随访模式显示出最高的成功率:56%的病例得到回应,从而能够识别和干预10个不同的沙门氏菌点源暴发。基于短信的监测为收集沙门氏菌病例中的关键食物暴露数据提供了一种新颖、有效和可接受的方法。在资源有限的情况下,短信可以补充传统的病例跟踪方法,提高疫情检测的及时性和有效性。将该随访与常规临床护理相结合,可进一步提高该方法的接受度和成功率。这项研究突出了SMS在简化监测工作方面的前景,值得进一步探索将其应用于其他传染病。
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引用次数: 0
The potential yield of geographically targeted tuberculosis contact investigation in urban Uganda. 乌干达城市地区有针对性的结核病接触者调查的潜在结果。
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100605
Katherine O Robsky, Annet Nalutaaya, Peter James Kitonsa, James Mukiibi, David Isooba, Olga Nakasolya, Emily A Kendall, Jonathan Zelner, Jennifer M Ross, Achilles Katamba, David W Dowdy

We investigated the potential yield of conducting active case finding for tuberculosis (TB) within a defined geographic radius (50 or 100 m) around the households of individuals diagnosed with TB at health facilities. In a well-defined geographic area within Kampala, Uganda, residential locations were determined for 85 people diagnosed with TB at local health facilities over an 18-month period and for 60 individuals diagnosed with TB during a subsequent community-wide door-to-door screening campaign. Ten of the individuals diagnosed through community screening lived within 50 m of an individual previously diagnosed with TB in a local health facility (TB prevalence: 0.98%), and 15 lived at a distance of 50-100 m (prevalence: 0.87%). The prevalence ratio was 1.4 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7-2.9) for those <50 m and 1.2 (95% CI 0.6-2.2) for those 50-100 m, compared to >100 m. Using TB notifications to identify areas for geographically targeted case finding is at most moderately more efficient than screening the general population in the context of urban Uganda.

我们调查了在卫生机构诊断为结核病的个人家庭周围的特定地理半径(50或100米)内开展结核病主动病例发现的潜在收益。在乌干达坎帕拉的一个明确界定的地理区域内,在18个月期间为85名在当地卫生机构诊断为结核病的人确定了居住地点,并在随后的社区挨家挨户筛查运动中为60名诊断为结核病的人确定了居住地点。在通过社区筛查确诊的个体中,有10人居住在当地卫生机构以前诊断为结核病的个体的50米范围内(结核病患病率:0.98%),15人居住在50-100米的距离内(患病率:0.87%)。100米的患病率为1.4(95%可信区间(CI): 0.7 ~ 2.9)。利用结核通报来确定地理上有针对性的病例发现地区,比在乌干达城市背景下对一般人群进行筛查的效率最高。
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引用次数: 0
Evidence of very low hepatitis B virus prevalence in children and adolescents in Germany: National cross-sectional study, 2014-2017. 德国儿童和青少年乙型肝炎病毒流行率极低的证据:2014-2017年全国横断面研究
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100563
Sofie Gillesberg Lassen, Christina Poethko-Müller, Martin Schlaud, Heiko Slanina, Christian G Schüttler, Klaus Stark, Viviane Bremer, Thomas Harder, Sandra Dudareva

Attaining the target of <0.1% HBsAg positives in children aged <5 years in vaccinated populations by 2030 is a WHO indicator of hepatitis B elimination. We aimed to calculate the prevalence of HBsAg- and anti-HBc-positive children and adolescents in the low-prevalence country of Germany. In total, 3567 children and adolescents aged 3-17 years participated in a national population based cross-sectional study. Data were collected between 2014 and 2017 using questionnaires and health examinations, including blood samples. Applying a weighted analysis to account for survey design and participant characteristics, we calculated the HBsAg and anti-HBc prevalence and described them by anti-HBs positivity. In total, 3007 participants had all three sero-markers measured. None were found HBsAg and anti-HBc positive. Seven (0.3%, 95% CI: 0.1-0.8) were anti-HBc positive and HBsAg negative; six were also anti-HBs positive. All anti-HBc-positive participants were aged ≥7 years and three had no migration background. Four anti-HBc-positive participants had known vaccination status; three had been vaccinated according to national recommendations. This very low hepatitis B virus sero-prevalence among children and adolescents indicates that Germany is reaching some hepatitis B virus elimination targets. We recommend maintaining preventive measures, in particular a high vaccination coverage, in order to reach hepatitis B elimination.

达到的目标
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引用次数: 0
Worldwide threatening prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa. 碳青霉烯耐药铜绿假单胞菌的全球威胁流行。
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100332
Mohammad Hossein Ahmadi, Zeinab Fagheei Aghmiyuni, Shahriar Bakhti

β-Lactam/β-lactamase inhibitor combinations and carbapenems are the first-line treatments for multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa (P. aeruginosa) infections. However, carbapenem resistance is increasing globally at an alarming rate, which is especially concerning given the pivotal role of these agents. This study comprehensively evaluated the global distribution of carbapenem resistance in clinical P. aeruginosa isolates. The keywords including 'Pseudomonas', P. aeruginosa', 'P. aeruginosa', 'resistance', 'susceptibility', 'carbapenem antibiotics', 'carbapenems', 'imipenem', 'meropenem', 'ertapenem', 'doripenem', as well as 'prevalence' and 'incidence' were searched in electronic databases as the appropriate keywords. After screening, 160 studies were excluded, with 87 eligible studies from diverse geographic regions retained for final analysis. A comprehensive meta-analysis was then conducted on the data collected. The mean resistance rates (95% CI) were 33.3% (imipenem), 23.3% (meropenem), 60.9% (ertapenem), and 36.7% (doripenem). The time trend analysis showed that the resistance to meropenem has increased from the year 1997 to 2023. Meta-analysis showed substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 92%, p < 0.05) but no significant publication bias by Egger's or Begg's test. Global carbapenem resistance is alarmingly high in clinical P. aeruginosa isolates. The increasing prevalence of carbapenem-resistant P. aeruginosa is a major global health threat requiring urgent action through new antimicrobials and improved antibiotic stewardship to protect these last-line drugs.

β-内酰胺/β-内酰胺酶抑制剂联合和碳青霉烯类药物是耐多药铜绿假单胞菌感染的一线治疗方法。然而,碳青霉烯耐药性正在全球范围内以惊人的速度增加,鉴于这些药物的关键作用,这尤其令人担忧。本研究综合评价了铜绿假单胞菌临床分离株碳青霉烯类耐药的全球分布。在电子数据库中检索“假单胞菌”、“铜绿假单胞菌”、“铜绿假单胞菌”、“耐药”、“敏感性”、“碳青霉烯类抗生素”、“碳青霉烯类抗生素”、“亚胺培南”、“美罗培南”、“厄他培南”、“多利培南”以及“患病率”和“发病率”等关键词。筛选后,160项研究被排除,来自不同地理区域的87项符合条件的研究被保留用于最终分析。然后对收集的数据进行全面的荟萃分析。平均耐药率(95% CI)分别为:亚胺培南33.3%、美罗培南23.3%、厄他培南60.9%、多利培南36.7%。时间趋势分析表明,1997 - 2023年对美罗培南的耐药性呈上升趋势。荟萃分析显示了显著的异质性(I2 = 92%, p铜绿假单胞菌分离株)。耐碳青霉烯P.铜绿假单胞菌的日益流行是一个主要的全球健康威胁,需要采取紧急行动,开发新的抗微生物药物并改进抗生素管理,以保护这些最后一线药物。
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引用次数: 0
Phylodynamic inference suggests introductions as main driver of Mpox Clade II outbreak in 2022 in Slovenia. 系统动力学推断表明,引入是2022年斯洛文尼亚II型天花暴发的主要驱动因素。
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100587
Bastiaan Van der Roest, Egil A J Fischer, Don Klinkenberg, Martin C J Bootsma, Mojca Maticic, Katarina Resman-Rus, Miša Korva, Tatjana Avsic-Zupanc, Mirjam Kretzschmar

In 2022, an Mpox clade II outbreak affected many countries. To optimize control, knowledge on the number of new introductions (human cases infected from outside the study population) versus local transmission is important. We extracted sequences of all 48 Mpox cases in Slovenia in 2022 from the NCBI database, of which 42 passed quality control. We estimated the number of introductions using the phylodynamic model phybreak by integrating genomic and epidemiological data and inferred transmission events. By repeating this analysis with weekly cumulative case data, we assessed if introductions could have been reliably inferred in real time. The number of introductions, estimated after the outbreak ended, was 19 (95% CI: 13-29), and two larger transmission clusters existed. As these introductions occurred throughout the outbreak, we conclude that the Slovenian Mpox outbreak was mainly driven by new introductions. Analysing the data 'in real time' would have only slightly overestimated the number of introductions per week, capturing the trend of introductions as main driver of the outbreak. This makes it useful for guiding control policy during outbreaks, prioritizing the rapid identification of cases among travellers, and with that preventing emergence of new transmission chains.

2022年,II型麻疹疫情影响了许多国家。为了优化控制,了解新引入病例(来自研究人群以外的人类感染病例)与本地传播的数量非常重要。我们从NCBI数据库中提取了2022年斯洛文尼亚所有48例Mpox病例的序列,其中42例通过了质量控制。我们通过整合基因组和流行病学数据以及推断的传播事件,使用系统动力学模型phybreak来估计引入的数量。通过对每周累积病例数据重复这一分析,我们评估了引入是否可以实时可靠地推断出来。疫情结束后估计的传入病例数为19例(95% CI: 13-29),存在两个较大的传播聚集群。由于这些引种发生在整个疫情期间,我们得出结论,斯洛文尼亚麻疹疫情主要是由新的引种引起的。“实时”分析数据只会略微高估每周的引进数量,捕捉到作为疫情主要驱动因素的引进趋势。这有助于在疫情期间指导控制政策,优先迅速查明旅行者中的病例,从而防止出现新的传播链。
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