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Time series analysis of new HIV diagnoses in France from 2012 to 2022. 2012年至2022年法国艾滋病新诊断的时间序列分析。
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100976
David Kelly, Amber Kunkel, Lauriane Ramalli, Anna Mercier, Florence Lot, Françoise Cazein

In France, HIV prevention measures including HIV testing, treatment, and uptake of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), have increased throughout the last decade. To analyse their impact, we performed a time series analysis of monthly HIV diagnoses reported via the national HIV surveillance database. In addition, we compared the timing of HIV promotional campaigns with monthly trends in HIV testing and PrEP initiation. From January 2012 to December 2022, new HIV diagnoses steadily decreased among men who have sex with men (MSM) born in France and heterosexuals born in France, whereas HIV diagnoses increased among MSM born abroad. HIV testing activity and PrEP use in France both steadily increased from 2014 to 2020, during which multiple campaigns targeting HIV testing and prevention occurred. The decline in HIV diagnoses among MSM born in France preceded the introduction of PrEP in 2016 and continued post-2016 without any acceleration in the rate of decline. Increased awareness of, access to and uptake of HIV prevention measures remain essential to progress towards HIV elimination in France, especially among MSM born abroad.

在法国,艾滋病毒预防措施,包括艾滋病毒检测、治疗和接触前预防(PrEP)的采用,在过去十年中有所增加。为了分析它们的影响,我们对通过国家艾滋病毒监测数据库报告的每月艾滋病毒诊断进行了时间序列分析。此外,我们比较了艾滋病毒宣传活动的时间与艾滋病毒检测和PrEP启动的每月趋势。从2012年1月到2022年12月,在法国出生的男男性行为者(MSM)和在法国出生的异性恋者中,新的艾滋病毒诊断稳步下降,而在国外出生的男男性行为者中,艾滋病毒诊断增加。从2014年到2020年,法国的艾滋病毒检测活动和PrEP使用都在稳步增长,在此期间,开展了多次针对艾滋病毒检测和预防的运动。在2016年引入预防措施之前,法国出生的男男性接触者的艾滋病毒诊断率下降,并在2016年后继续下降,但下降速度没有任何加快。在法国,特别是在国外出生的男同性恋者中,提高对艾滋病毒预防措施的认识、获取和采用对消除艾滋病毒的进展至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Phylogeographic diversity of Orientia tsutsugamushi strains from clinical isolates in South Korea. 韩国恙虫病东方体临床分离株的系统地理多样性
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100988
Hyungsuk Kang, Yeon-Joo Choi, Changmin Oh, Dong-Min Kim, Yeon-Sook Kim, Kwangjun Lee, Won-Jong Jang

Orientia tsutsugamushi, the causative agent of scrub typhus, is endemic to the Asia-Pacific region. In South Korea, the Boryong strain is considered dominant; however, nationwide phylogeographic distribution and genetic diversity based on clinical isolates remain incompletely characterized. In this study, 121 O. tsutsugamushi clinical isolates were collected from scrub typhus patients at 11 hospitals across South Korea between 2015 and 2024. Isolates were genotyped using 56-kDa gene sequencing and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) of seven housekeeping genes. Sequence analysis and phylogenetic reconstruction were performed using BLAST, PubMLST, BURST, MEGA11, DnaSP6, and R-based tools. Five 56-kDa genotypes were identified: Boryong (93.4%), Ikeda, Je-cheon, Young-worl, and Yeo-joo. MLST revealed 11 sequence types (STs), including five novel STs. While the Boryong strain and related STs were distributed nationwide, minor strains showed restricted distribution in northern regions. Several isolates sharing the same 56-kDa genotype exhibited different MLST STs, indicating possible recombination or local microevolution. This study provides the first nationwide MLST-based characterization of O. tsutsugamushi in South Korea and demonstrates the dominance of the Boryong strain alongside localized diversity. Our findings underscore the utility of MLST for higher-resolution typing and support the need for continued molecular surveillance to inform regional epidemiology and disease management.

恙虫病东方体是恙虫病的病原体,是亚太地区的地方性疾病。在韩国,保宁菌株被认为是主要菌株;然而,基于临床分离的全国系统地理分布和遗传多样性仍然不完全表征。在这项研究中,从2015年至2024年韩国11家医院的恙虫病患者中收集了121株恙虫病临床分离株。分离菌株采用56-kDa基因测序和7个管家基因的多位点序列分型(MLST)进行基因分型。使用BLAST、PubMLST、BURST、MEGA11、DnaSP6和R-based工具进行序列分析和系统发育重建。共鉴定出5种56-kDa基因型:Boryong(93.4%)、Ikeda、Je-cheon、young - world和Yeo-joo。MLST共发现11种序列类型,其中包括5种新的序列类型。博宁菌株及其相关STs在全国范围内分布,少数菌株在北方地区分布受限。具有相同56-kDa基因型的几个分离株表现出不同的MLST,表明可能存在重组或局部微进化。该研究首次在韩国提供了基于mlst的恙虫病体全国性特征,并证明了Boryong菌株的优势以及局部多样性。我们的研究结果强调了MLST在高分辨率分型方面的效用,并支持持续的分子监测为区域流行病学和疾病管理提供信息的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Incidence of community-acquired pneumonia among adults between 2016 and 2023: an observational cohort study. 2016年至2023年成人社区获得性肺炎发病率:一项观察性队列研究
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100897
Biying Wang, Tao Zhang, Liping Yi, Yanan Wu, Hongjie Yu, Xiaohua Liu, Youyi Zhang, Yonggen Jiang, Genming Zhao

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remains an important public-health problem, and the COVID-19 pandemic and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may have altered its burden. This study aimed to provide updated CAP burden among adults in Shanghai from 2016-2023.We analysed 61,230 participants aged 20-74 years from the Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort and Biobank. CAP episodes were ascertained via ICD codes and clinical diagnoses. We calculated incidence rates before, during, and after NPIs, conducted subgroup analyses by age, sex, comorbidity and lifestyle. We used Poisson regression to compare stages, and Cox models to identify risk factors. The Overall CAP incidence was 42.1 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI 41.3-42.8). Incidence declined during NPIs (24.2/1,000 py) and rose after NPIs (95.9/1,000 py). The inpatient-to-outpatient ratio increased to 10.1% during NPIs and fell to 5.7% post-NPI. Among those without underlying conditions, rates were 40.1, 20.1 and 73.6/1,000 py before, during and after NPIs. Incidence was higher in participants ≥60 years and in those with multiple comorbidities, especially respiratory diseases. CAP burden temporarily fell during NPIs but resurged post-NPI, notably among high-risk groups. These findings highlight the need for targeted preventive strategies and continued CAP surveillance in the post-pandemic era.

社区获得性肺炎(CAP)仍然是一个重要的公共卫生问题,COVID-19大流行和非药物干预措施(npi)可能已经改变了其负担。本研究旨在提供2016-2023年上海市成人CAP负担的最新数据。我们分析了来自上海郊区成人队列和生物库的61230名年龄在20-74岁之间的参与者。通过ICD编码和临床诊断确定CAP发作。我们计算了npi之前、期间和之后的发病率,并按年龄、性别、合并症和生活方式进行了亚组分析。我们使用泊松回归来比较分期,使用Cox模型来确定危险因素。总CAP发病率为42.1 / 1000人年(95% CI 41.3-42.8)。npi期间发病率下降(24.2/1,000 py), npi之后发病率上升(95.9/1,000 py)。住院与门诊比率在新方案实施期间上升到10.1%,在新方案实施后下降到5.7%。在那些没有潜在状况的人中,在新产品出厂指数之前、期间和之后,失业率分别为40.1、20.1和73.6/1,000 py。≥60岁的参与者和有多种合并症,特别是呼吸道疾病的参与者发病率更高。在新项目实施期间,CAP负担暂时下降,但在新项目实施后又回升,尤其是在高风险人群中。这些发现突出表明,在大流行后时代需要有针对性的预防战略和持续的共同农业计划监测。
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引用次数: 0
A self-driven ESN-DSS approach for effective COVID-19 time series prediction and modelling - CORRIGENDUM. 用于有效COVID-19时间序列预测和建模的自驱动ESN-DSS方法-勘误表
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100824
Weiye Wang, Qing Li, Junsong Wang
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引用次数: 0
Factors associated with non-optimal antiretroviral adherence among MSM and women living with HIV in South India: an exploratory analysis. 南印度男男性行为者和感染艾滋病毒的妇女非最佳抗逆转录病毒依从性相关因素:一项探索性分析。
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100927
Casey Morgan Luc, Sabitha Gandham, Sierra Upton, Vijay Yeldandi, Kara Herrera, Mark S Dworkin

Hyderabad, the fourth-most populous city in India, accounts for the majority of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PLWH) in Telangana, likely comprised of two populations with a disproportionately high national HIV prevalence: gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) and those who engage in sex work (SW). Research has shown that engaging in SW increases vulnerability to HIV transmission risk for both women and MSM, but less is known about contributors to non-optimal (ART) adherence. We analyzed data from 45 MSM and 49 women living with HIV who were enrolled in the first year of data collection from an mHealth education study in Hyderabad. Modified Poisson regression was used to measure factors associated with ART adherence measured with a visual analogue scale (VAS) (model 1) and pill count (model 2). Less than half (40.9%) reported ever engaging in SW, including 13 women and 25 MSM. The prevalence of non-optimal ART adherence was 14.9% with VAS and 42.4% with pill count. Engaging in SW was not associated with non-optimal ART adherence. Differences in non-optimal ART adherence measured by VAS and pill count suggest that future studies should utilize both methods to better distinguish the measures.

海得拉巴是印度人口第四多的城市,是泰伦甘纳邦人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV) (PLWH)感染者的大多数,可能包括两种全国艾滋病毒感染率过高的人群:同性恋、双性恋和其他男男性行为者(MSM)以及从事性工作的人(SW)。研究表明,参与性行为增加了女性和男男性行为者感染艾滋病毒的风险,但对非最佳(ART)依从性的因素知之甚少。我们分析了45名男男性行为者和49名感染艾滋病毒的妇女的数据,这些人参加了海得拉巴移动健康教育研究的第一年数据收集。采用修正泊松回归测量与ART依从性相关的因素,采用视觉模拟量表(VAS)(模型1)和药片数(模型2)测量。不到一半(40.9%)的人报告曾参与过性行为,其中包括13名女性和25名男男性行为者。VAS组非最佳ART依从率为14.9%,药片数组为42.4%。参与SW与非最佳ART依从性无关。VAS和药片计数测量的非最佳ART依从性差异表明,未来的研究应利用这两种方法来更好地区分这些措施。
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引用次数: 0
Respiratory virus dynamics in a tropical region: Insights from Yucatán, México (2018-2024). 热带地区的呼吸道病毒动态:来自Yucatán, m<s:1> xico(2018-2024)的见解。
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100939
Marco Antonio Jiménez-Rico, David Fernando Novelo-Pérez, Claudia Isabel Puch-Magaña, Raquel Andrea Manrique-Puch, María de Lourdes Puerto-Compean, Rodrigo García-López, Ericka Nelly Pompa-Mera, Mireya Núñez-Armendáriz, Rosa Elena Sarmiento-Silva, Miriam Lugo-Tavera

The activity of respiratory viruses (RVs) displays large variability in tropical regions, posing challenges for public health response strategies. Data from most RVs in south-eastern Mexico remain limited, particularly in the Yucatan Peninsula, the largest tourism hub in the country. This retrospective study analyses the regional epidemiology of RVs in Merida, the largest city in the region, using laboratory test data from a local hospital (January 2018-April 2024). Test results of 143292 RVs were collected, including 121976 for SARS-CoV-2, 19355 for influenza A and B viruses, and 1961 for 17 distinct RVs. We found that non-SARS-CoV-2 RVs circulated year-round, with higher activity in autumn and spring, while SARS-CoV-2 peaked in summer and winter. Influenza A virus, respiratory syncytial virus, and influenza B virus reached their highest activity in autumn, earlier than in other regions of Mexico. Human metapneumovirus peaked during autumn-winter. Rhinovirus/enterovirus and parainfluenza showed year-round activity, with peaks in autumn and spring. Other coronaviruses were more frequent during winter-spring. In post-pandemic years (2022-2023), adenovirus outbreaks emerged, as well as an increased prevalence of non-SARS-CoV-2 RV co-infections. This study highlights the need for region-specific public health strategies, including optimized vaccination schedules, such as for influenza A virus, and enhanced diagnostic surveillance.

呼吸道病毒(rv)的活动在热带地区表现出很大的差异,对公共卫生应对战略提出了挑战。来自墨西哥东南部大多数房车的数据仍然有限,尤其是在该国最大的旅游中心尤卡坦半岛。本回顾性研究利用当地一家医院的实验室检测数据(2018年1月至2024年4月)分析了该地区最大城市梅里达的rv区域流行病学。收集了143292份病毒检测结果,其中SARS-CoV-2 121976份,甲型和乙型流感病毒19355份,17种不同病毒1961份。非SARS-CoV-2型房车全年流行,秋季和春季活跃度较高,而SARS-CoV-2型房车夏季和冬季活跃度最高。甲型流感病毒、呼吸道合胞病毒和乙型流感病毒在秋季达到最高活性,比墨西哥其他地区早。人偏肺病毒在秋冬季达到高峰。鼻/肠病毒和副流感病毒全年活跃,秋季和春季为高峰。其他冠状病毒在冬春季节更为频繁。在大流行后的几年中(2022-2023年),出现了腺病毒暴发,非sars - cov -2 RV合并感染的流行率也有所增加。这项研究强调需要制定针对特定区域的公共卫生战略,包括优化甲型流感病毒等疫苗接种计划,以及加强诊断监测。
{"title":"Respiratory virus dynamics in a tropical region: Insights from Yucatán, México (2018-2024).","authors":"Marco Antonio Jiménez-Rico, David Fernando Novelo-Pérez, Claudia Isabel Puch-Magaña, Raquel Andrea Manrique-Puch, María de Lourdes Puerto-Compean, Rodrigo García-López, Ericka Nelly Pompa-Mera, Mireya Núñez-Armendáriz, Rosa Elena Sarmiento-Silva, Miriam Lugo-Tavera","doi":"10.1017/S0950268825100939","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268825100939","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The activity of respiratory viruses (RVs) displays large variability in tropical regions, posing challenges for public health response strategies. Data from most RVs in south-eastern Mexico remain limited, particularly in the Yucatan Peninsula, the largest tourism hub in the country. This retrospective study analyses the regional epidemiology of RVs in Merida, the largest city in the region, using laboratory test data from a local hospital (January 2018-April 2024). Test results of 143292 RVs were collected, including 121976 for SARS-CoV-2, 19355 for influenza A and B viruses, and 1961 for 17 distinct RVs. We found that non-SARS-CoV-2 RVs circulated year-round, with higher activity in autumn and spring, while SARS-CoV-2 peaked in summer and winter. Influenza A virus, respiratory syncytial virus, and influenza B virus reached their highest activity in autumn, earlier than in other regions of Mexico. Human metapneumovirus peaked during autumn-winter. Rhinovirus/enterovirus and parainfluenza showed year-round activity, with peaks in autumn and spring. Other coronaviruses were more frequent during winter-spring. In post-pandemic years (2022-2023), adenovirus outbreaks emerged, as well as an increased prevalence of non-SARS-CoV-2 RV co-infections. This study highlights the need for region-specific public health strategies, including optimized vaccination schedules, such as for influenza A virus, and enhanced diagnostic surveillance.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e7"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12813726/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145888720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection and antimicrobial resistance in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba compared to Canada between 1980 and 2022. 1980年至2022年在艾伯塔省、萨斯喀彻温省和马尼托巴省的淋病奈瑟菌感染和抗菌素耐药性与加拿大的比较。
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100885
Camilo Suarez-Ariza, Zipporah Gitau, Maria Arango-Uribe, Mariana Herrera, Camila Oda, Angela Copete, Rotem Keynan, Ameeta E Singh, Stuart Skinner, Cara Spence, Lauren J MacKenzie, Ken Kasper, Laurie Ireland, Irene Martin, Jared Bullard, David Alexander, Diana Marin, Lucelly Lopez, Margareth Haworth-Brockman, Yoav Keynan, Zulma Vanessa Rueda

We aimed to describe the evolution of gonorrhea infection and its antimicrobial resistance patterns in the Prairie provinces compared to Canada between 1980 and 2022. Data was collected from publicly available sexually transmitted infection reports in Canada, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. We extracted the number and rates of gonorrhea cases; percentage of cases by sex, age, ethnicity, sexual orientation; and data on cases diagnosed by culture and antimicrobial resistance. Descriptive statistics and age-period-cohort effect analysis were used. Gonorrhea cases in Canada rose from 32.4 per 100 000 in 1992 to 92.3 in 2022. In 2020, 36.9% of gonorrhea cases in Canada were females, compared to 42.8% in Alberta, 55.3% in Saskatchewan and 56% in Manitoba. People aged ≥30 years represented 22.5% of cases in 1980, and 54.1% in 2022. By 2022, the proportion of Canadian cases detected by culture declined to less than 10%, and azithromycin resistance of N. gonorrhoeae isolates was 8.1%. Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan reported higher rates of gonorrhea compared to Canada, with a higher proportion of female cases in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Rising antimicrobial resistance rates and decreased culture testing present significant concerns for gonorrhea control and surveillance.

我们的目的是描述1980年至2022年间与加拿大相比,草原省份淋病感染的演变及其抗微生物药物耐药性模式。数据收集自加拿大、阿尔伯塔省、萨斯喀彻温省和马尼托巴省公开可用的性传播感染报告。我们提取了淋病病例的数量和发生率;按性别、年龄、种族、性取向分列的病例百分比;以及通过培养和抗菌素耐药性诊断病例的数据。采用描述性统计和年龄-时期-队列效应分析。加拿大的淋病病例从1992年的每10万人32.4例上升到2022年的92.3例。2020年,加拿大36.9%的淋病病例为女性,而艾伯塔省为42.8%,萨斯喀彻温省为55.3%,马尼托巴省为56%。1980年,年龄≥30岁的患者占22.5%,2022年为54.1%。到2022年,通过培养检测到的加拿大病例比例下降到10%以下,淋病奈瑟菌分离株的阿奇霉素耐药性为8.1%。与加拿大相比,阿尔伯塔省、马尼托巴省和萨斯喀彻温省报告的淋病发病率更高,其中马尼托巴省和萨斯喀彻温省的女性病例比例更高。抗菌素耐药率的上升和培养试验的减少是淋病控制和监测的重大问题。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of COVID-19 infection experience on risk perception and preventive behaviour: a cohort study. COVID-19感染经历对风险认知和预防行为的影响:一项队列研究
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100940
Michio Murakami, Mei Yamagata, Asako Miura

This study examined whether coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection experience enhances preventive behaviour (i.e., hand disinfection and mask-wearing), with risk perception acting as a mediating factor. The study included participants aged ≥18 years residing in Japan, enrolled in a 30-wave cohort study conducted from January 2020 to March 2024. Using propensity score matching, 135 pairs of participants with and without infection were extracted, adjusting for dread and unknown risk perception, preventive behaviours, sociopsychological variables, and individual attributes. Comparisons of risk perception and preventive behaviour were made between groups post-infection experience, and mediation analysis was conducted to test whether risk perception mediated the effect of infection experience on preventive behaviour. Following the infection experience, participants in the infection group reported significantly higher scores for one item of unknown risk perception and a greater proportion of mask-wearing. The indirect effect of infection experience on mask-wearing, mediated by the unknown risk perception item, was significant. COVID-19 infection experience increased perceptions of unknowable exposure, which in turn promoted mask-wearing behaviour. Incorporating insights from personal infection experiences into public health messaging may enhance risk perception and promote preventive behaviour among non-infected individuals, offering a novel approach to infection control at the population level.

本研究考察了2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)感染经历是否会增强预防行为(即手消毒和戴口罩),风险感知是一个中介因素。该研究纳入了2020年1月至2024年3月期间在日本居住的年龄≥18岁的参与者,参加了一项30波队列研究。使用倾向得分匹配,提取了135对感染和未感染的参与者,调整了恐惧和未知风险感知、预防行为、社会心理学变量和个人属性。比较各组感染后经历的风险感知和预防行为,并进行中介分析,检验风险感知是否介导感染经历对预防行为的影响。在感染经历之后,感染组的参与者在一项未知风险感知上的得分明显更高,戴口罩的比例也更高。感染经历对口罩佩戴的间接影响,由未知风险感知项目介导,具有显著性。COVID-19感染增加了人们对不可知暴露的认识,从而促进了佩戴口罩的行为。将个人感染经验的见解纳入公共卫生信息,可增强未感染者的风险认知并促进预防行为,为在人群层面控制感染提供一种新方法。
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引用次数: 0
Incidence of parvovirus B19 among Hungarian blood donor population during COVID-19 restrictions and the subsequent B19 epidemic of 2024. 在2019冠状病毒病限制期间和随后的2024年B19流行期间匈牙利献血者人群中细小病毒B19的发病率
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100861
László Kokavecz, Zita Sohajda, Péter Dávid, Anikó Stágel, Klára Baróti-Tóth, Sándor Nagy, Melinda Paholcsek, Réka Sohajda

Nationwide screening for parvovirus B19 among blood donors in Hungary has been conducted since 2019. Although B19 is primarily transmitted via the respiratory route, transfusion-related transmission also occurs. This study investigated the impact of COVID-19-related restrictions on B19 incidence. Between January 1 2019 and December 31 2024, a total of 2,043,119 blood donations were screened for B19 DNA using PCR, and the study period was divided into six epidemiological phases.During the pre-restriction period (Phase I), B19 incidence was relatively low (0.87/10,000 donations). Following the introduction of COVID-19 restrictions (Phase II), highly viremic donations were not detected. Incidence gradually returned in Phase III (0.22/10000) and increased in Phase IV (1.96/10000), suggesting a minor outbreak. A marked surge in December 2023 (23.03/10000) initiated a nationwide epidemic, peaking in March-April 2024 (46.01/10000), before declining by August (Phase VI; 0.54/10000).COVID-19 restrictions substantially reduced B19 transmission and may have led to increased population susceptibility. This likely contributed to the unusually intense B19 epidemic observed in 2024, which was considerably more severe than contemporaneous outbreaks reported in other countries.

自2019年以来,匈牙利在献血者中进行了全国性的细小病毒B19筛查。虽然B19主要通过呼吸途径传播,但也会发生与输血相关的传播。本研究调查了covid -19相关限制对B19发病率的影响。在2019年1月1日至2024年12月31日期间,共使用PCR对2,043,119名献血者进行了B19 DNA筛查,研究期间分为六个流行病学阶段。在限制前阶段(第一阶段),B19的发病率相对较低(0.87/万)。在实施COVID-19限制(第二阶段)后,未检测到高病毒血症捐赠。发病率在III期逐渐恢复(0.22/10000),而在IV期增加(1.96/10000),提示轻微暴发。2023年12月出现显著上升(23.03/10000),在2024年3 - 4月达到高峰(46.01/10000),到8月下降(第六阶段,0.54/10000)。COVID-19限制措施大大减少了B19传播,并可能导致人群易感性增加。这可能导致了2024年观察到的异常强烈的B19疫情,比其他国家同期报告的疫情严重得多。
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引用次数: 0
Epidemiological indicators of accidental laboratory-origin outbreaks. 实验室意外暴发的流行病学指标。
IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100915
Sandhya Dhawan, Wirichada Pan-Ngum, Chandini Raina MacIntyre, Stuart D Blacksell

Accidental escapes of pathogens from laboratories continue to cause outbreaks in the community today, posing significant risks to the general public, animal communities and the environment. These incidents, as well as the uncertainties surrounding the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, highlight the need to consider unnatural origins as part of emerging outbreak surveillance and detection. Identifying recurring patterns and distinctive factors of laboratory-associated disease outbreaks can aid in successfully preventing and mitigating these occurrences. Seventy incidents of laboratory-associated leaks that led to outbreaks in the wider public have been reported (Supplementary Appendix S1). Seven renowned cases that have been comprehensively studied were selected for review: (i) 1955 Polio vaccine incident in western USA, (ii) 1977 H1N1 influenza virus re-emergence in China and the Soviet Union, (iii) 1979 Anthrax release in Sverdlovsk, Soviet Union, (iv) 1995 Venezuelan equine encephalitis epidemics in Venezuela and Colombia, (v) 2003-4 SARS-CoV-1 escapes from Singapore, Taiwan and China, (vi) 2007 Foot-and-Mouth disease virus outbreak in Pirbright, England and (vii) 2019 Brucella leak in Lanzhou, China. These outbreaks were selected because data on their geographical spread, genetics, phylogeny, epidemiological factors (including attack rates, infectious dose, time, location and season of spread) and governmental and institutional responses to the incidents had been previously analysed and published. Thematic analysis of these lines of evidence revealed seven recurring insights described in historically confirmed laboratory-associated outbreaks: unusual strain characteristics, peculiar clinical manifestations or affected demographics, unusual geographical features, atypical epidemiological patterns, delayed government action and communication to the public, misinformation and disinformation spread to the public and biosafety concerns/incidents predating the event. The outbreaks exhibited between 13 and 19 retrospectively identified indicators. These indicators were used to develop preliminary risk criteria intended to support structured, hypothesis-generating assessment of outbreaks, rather than to establish origin.

今天,病原体从实验室意外逃逸继续在社区引起疫情,对公众、动物群落和环境构成重大风险。这些事件以及围绕COVID-19大流行起源的不确定性突出表明,有必要将非自然起源作为新出现的疫情监测和检测的一部分。确定实验室相关疾病暴发的重复模式和独特因素有助于成功地预防和减轻这些事件。已报告了70起与实验室有关的泄漏事件,导致更广泛的公众爆发(补充附录S1)。我们选择了七个经过全面研究的著名案例进行审查:​之所以选择这些疫情,是因为以前已经分析和发表了有关其地理传播、遗传学、系统发育、流行病学因素(包括发病率、感染剂量、时间、地点和传播季节)以及政府和机构对这些事件的反应的数据。对这些证据线的专题分析揭示了在历史上证实的实验室相关疫情中描述的七个反复出现的见解:不寻常的菌株特征、特殊的临床表现或受影响的人口统计、不寻常的地理特征、非典型流行病学模式、政府行动和向公众传播的延迟、向公众传播的错误信息和虚假信息以及事件发生前的生物安全问题/事件。疫情表现出13至19项回顾性确定的指标。这些指标用于制定初步风险标准,旨在支持对疫情进行结构化的假设评估,而不是确定起源。
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