Pub Date : 2024-11-22DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000992
Weiye Wang, Qing Li, Junsong Wang
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, it has posed a great crisis to the health and economy of the world. The objective is to provide a simple deep-learning approach for predicting, modelling, and evaluating the time evolutions of the COVID-19 epidemic. The Dove Swarm Search (DSS) algorithm is integrated with the echo state network (ESN) to optimize the weight. The ESN-DSS model is constructed to predict the evolution of the COVID-19 time series. Specifically, the self-driven ESN-DSS is created to form a closed feedback loop by replacing the input with the output. The prediction results, which involve COVID-19 temporal evolutions of multiple countries worldwide, indicate the excellent prediction performances of our model compared with several artificial intelligence prediction methods from the literature (e.g., recurrent neural network, long short-term memory, gated recurrent units, variational auto encoder) at the same time scale. Moreover, the model parameters of the self-driven ESN-DSS are determined which acts as a significant impact on the prediction performance. As a result, the network parameters are adjusted to improve the prediction accuracy. The prediction results can be used as proposals to help governments and medical institutions formulate pertinent precautionary measures to prevent further spread. In addition, this study is not only limited to COVID-19 time series forecasting but also applicable to other nonlinear time series prediction problems.
{"title":"A self-driven ESN-DSS approach for effective COVID-19 time series prediction and modelling.","authors":"Weiye Wang, Qing Li, Junsong Wang","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824000992","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824000992","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, it has posed a great crisis to the health and economy of the world. The objective is to provide a simple deep-learning approach for predicting, modelling, and evaluating the time evolutions of the COVID-19 epidemic. The Dove Swarm Search (DSS) algorithm is integrated with the echo state network (ESN) to optimize the weight. The ESN-DSS model is constructed to predict the evolution of the COVID-19 time series. Specifically, the self-driven ESN-DSS is created to form a closed feedback loop by replacing the input with the output. The prediction results, which involve COVID-19 temporal evolutions of multiple countries worldwide, indicate the excellent prediction performances of our model compared with several artificial intelligence prediction methods from the literature (e.g., recurrent neural network, long short-term memory, gated recurrent units, variational auto encoder) at the same time scale. Moreover, the model parameters of the self-driven ESN-DSS are determined which acts as a significant impact on the prediction performance. As a result, the network parameters are adjusted to improve the prediction accuracy. The prediction results can be used as proposals to help governments and medical institutions formulate pertinent precautionary measures to prevent further spread. In addition, this study is not only limited to COVID-19 time series forecasting but also applicable to other nonlinear time series prediction problems.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e146"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11626461/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142686432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-20DOI: 10.1017/S095026882400164X
Daniel Juma Sama, Najmul Haider, Javier Guitian, Abdinasir Yusuf Osman, Francine Ntoumi, Alimuddin Zumla, Richard Kock, Rashid Ansumana
Lassa fever (LF) virus (LASV) is endemic in Sierra Leone (SL) and poses a significant public health threat to the region; however, no risk factors for clinical LF have been reported in SL. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors for clinical LF in an endemic community in SL. We conducted a case-control study by enrolling 37 laboratory-confirmed LF cases identified through the national LF surveillance system in SL and 140 controls resided within a one-kilometre radius of the case household. We performed a conditional multiple logistic regression analysis to identify the risk factors for clinical LF. Of the 37 cases enrolled, 23 died (62% case fatality rate). Cases were younger than controls (19.5 years vs 28.9 years, p < 0.05) and more frequently female (64.8% vs 52.8%). Compared to the controls, clinical LF cases had higher contact with rodents (rats or mice) in their households in the preceding three weeks (83.8% vs 47.8%). Households with a cat reported a lower presence of rodents (73% vs 38%, p < 0.01) and contributed to a lower rate of clinical LF (48.6% vs 55.7%) although not statistically significant (p = 0.56). The presence of rodents in the households (matched adjusted odds ratio (mAOR): 11.1) and younger age (mAOR: 0.99) were independently associated with clinical LF.Rodent access to households and younger age were independently associated with clinical LF. Rodent access to households is likely a key risk factor for clinical LF in rural SL and potentially in other countries within the West African region. Implementing measures to control rodents and their access to households could potentially decrease the number of clinical LF cases in rural SL and West Africa.
拉沙热病毒(LASV)在塞拉利昂(SL)流行,对该区域构成重大公共卫生威胁;然而,在SL没有临床LF危险因素的报道。本研究的目的是确定SL流行社区临床LF的危险因素。我们进行了一项病例对照研究,招募了37例通过SL国家LF监测系统确定的实验室确诊的LF病例和140名居住在病例家庭一公里半径内的对照。我们进行了条件多元逻辑回归分析,以确定临床LF的危险因素。在登记的37例病例中,23例死亡(病死率62%)。患者年龄小于对照组(19.5岁vs 28.9岁,p < 0.05),女性患者较多(64.8% vs 52.8%)。与对照组相比,临床LF病例在前三周内与家中啮齿动物(大鼠或小鼠)接触较多(83.8% vs 47.8%)。有猫的家庭报告啮齿动物的存在率较低(73%对38%,p < 0.01),并有助于降低临床LF率(48.6%对55.7%),尽管没有统计学意义(p = 0.56)。家庭中存在啮齿动物(匹配调整优势比(mAOR): 11.1)和年龄较小(mAOR: 0.99)与临床LF独立相关。啮齿动物进入家庭和较年轻的年龄与临床LF独立相关。啮齿动物进入家庭可能是SL农村地区以及西非地区其他国家发生临床LF的一个关键风险因素。实施控制啮齿动物及其进入家庭的措施可能会减少SL和西非农村地区的临床LF病例数。
{"title":"Identifying risk factors for clinical Lassa fever in Sierra Leone, 2019-2021.","authors":"Daniel Juma Sama, Najmul Haider, Javier Guitian, Abdinasir Yusuf Osman, Francine Ntoumi, Alimuddin Zumla, Richard Kock, Rashid Ansumana","doi":"10.1017/S095026882400164X","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S095026882400164X","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Lassa fever (LF) virus (LASV) is endemic in Sierra Leone (SL) and poses a significant public health threat to the region; however, no risk factors for clinical LF have been reported in SL. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors for clinical LF in an endemic community in SL. We conducted a case-control study by enrolling 37 laboratory-confirmed LF cases identified through the national LF surveillance system in SL and 140 controls resided within a one-kilometre radius of the case household. We performed a conditional multiple logistic regression analysis to identify the risk factors for clinical LF. Of the 37 cases enrolled, 23 died (62% case fatality rate). Cases were younger than controls (19.5 years vs 28.9 years, <i>p</i> < 0.05) and more frequently female (64.8% vs 52.8%). Compared to the controls, clinical LF cases had higher contact with rodents (rats or mice) in their households in the preceding three weeks (83.8% vs 47.8%). Households with a cat reported a lower presence of rodents (73% vs 38%, <i>p</i> < 0.01) and contributed to a lower rate of clinical LF (48.6% vs 55.7%) although not statistically significant (<i>p</i> = 0.56). The presence of rodents in the households (matched adjusted odds ratio (mAOR): 11.1) and younger age (mAOR: 0.99) were independently associated with clinical LF.Rodent access to households and younger age were independently associated with clinical LF. Rodent access to households is likely a key risk factor for clinical LF in rural SL and potentially in other countries within the West African region. Implementing measures to control rodents and their access to households could potentially decrease the number of clinical LF cases in rural SL and West Africa.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e177"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11696580/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142675277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-20DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000918
Amanda Markelz, Zachary Zirnhelt, Keeley Morris, Scott A Seys, Abbey Ruhland, Ashley Fell, Lydia Fess, Kathryn Como-Sabetti, Stephanie Meyer
SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics within households involving children are complex. We examined the association between paediatric index case (PIC) age and subsequent household SARS-CoV-2 transmission among cases reported to the Minnesota Department of Health between March 2021 and February 2022. In our primary analysis, we used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios adjusted for race/ethnicity, sex, geographic region, and disease severity among households with an unvaccinated PIC. We performed a secondary analysis among households where the PIC was eligible for vaccination adjusting for the same covariates plus time since the last vaccination. Both analyses were stratified by variant wave. During the Alpha wave, PICs of all age groups had similar odds of subsequent transmission. During Delta and Omicron waves, PICs aged 16-17 had higher odds of subsequent transmission than PICs aged 0-4 (Delta OR, 1.32; [95% CI, 1.16-1.51], Omicron OR, 4.21; [95% CI, 3.25-5.45]). In the secondary analysis, unvaccinated PICs had higher odds of subsequent transmission than vaccinated PICs (Delta OR 2.89 [95% CI, 2.18-3.84], Omicron OR 1.35 [95% CI, 1.21-1.50]). Enhanced preventative measures, especially for 12-17-year-olds, may limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission within households involving children.
{"title":"Association between age of paediatric index cases and household SARS-CoV-2 transmission.","authors":"Amanda Markelz, Zachary Zirnhelt, Keeley Morris, Scott A Seys, Abbey Ruhland, Ashley Fell, Lydia Fess, Kathryn Como-Sabetti, Stephanie Meyer","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824000918","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824000918","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics within households involving children are complex. We examined the association between paediatric index case (PIC) age and subsequent household SARS-CoV-2 transmission among cases reported to the Minnesota Department of Health between March 2021 and February 2022. In our primary analysis, we used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios adjusted for race/ethnicity, sex, geographic region, and disease severity among households with an unvaccinated PIC. We performed a secondary analysis among households where the PIC was eligible for vaccination adjusting for the same covariates plus time since the last vaccination. Both analyses were stratified by variant wave. During the Alpha wave, PICs of all age groups had similar odds of subsequent transmission. During Delta and Omicron waves, PICs aged 16-17 had higher odds of subsequent transmission than PICs aged 0-4 (Delta OR, 1.32; [95% CI, 1.16-1.51], Omicron OR, 4.21; [95% CI, 3.25-5.45]). In the secondary analysis, unvaccinated PICs had higher odds of subsequent transmission than vaccinated PICs (Delta OR 2.89 [95% CI, 2.18-3.84], Omicron OR 1.35 [95% CI, 1.21-1.50]). Enhanced preventative measures, especially for 12-17-year-olds, may limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission within households involving children.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e145"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11626455/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142675289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-19DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001626
Sihai Gao, Qingqing Chen, Lei Chen, Yuanyuan Cai, Dan Lin, Lili Wang, Minhe Chen, Yi Li, Leyi Zhang, Yongqiang Shao
Foodborne diseases are ongoing and significant public health concerns. This study analysed data obtained from the Foodborne Outbreaks Surveillance System of Wenzhou to comprehensively summarise the characteristics of foodborne outbreaks from 2012 to 2022. A total of 198 outbreaks were reported, resulting in 2,216 cases, 208 hospitalisations, and eight deaths over 11 years. The findings suggested that foodborne outbreaks were more prevalent in the third quarter, with most cases occurring in households (30.8%). Outbreaks were primarily associated with aquatic products (17.7%) as sources of contamination. The primary transmission pathways were accidental ingestion (20.2%) and multi-pathway transmission (12.1%). Microbiological aetiologies (46.0%), including Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Salmonella ssp., and Staphylococcus aureus, were identified as the main causes of foodborne outbreaks. Furthermore, mushroom toxins (75.0%), poisonous animals (12.5%), and poisonous plants (12.5%) were responsible for deaths from accidental ingestion. This study identified crucial settings and aetiologies that require the attention of both individuals and governments, thereby enabling the development of effective preventive measures to mitigate foodborne outbreaks, particularly in coastal cities.
{"title":"Analysis of foodborne outbreaks in Wenzhou City, China, 2012-2022.","authors":"Sihai Gao, Qingqing Chen, Lei Chen, Yuanyuan Cai, Dan Lin, Lili Wang, Minhe Chen, Yi Li, Leyi Zhang, Yongqiang Shao","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001626","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824001626","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Foodborne diseases are ongoing and significant public health concerns. This study analysed data obtained from the Foodborne Outbreaks Surveillance System of Wenzhou to comprehensively summarise the characteristics of foodborne outbreaks from 2012 to 2022. A total of 198 outbreaks were reported, resulting in 2,216 cases, 208 hospitalisations, and eight deaths over 11 years. The findings suggested that foodborne outbreaks were more prevalent in the third quarter, with most cases occurring in households (30.8%). Outbreaks were primarily associated with aquatic products (17.7%) as sources of contamination. The primary transmission pathways were accidental ingestion (20.2%) and multi-pathway transmission (12.1%). Microbiological aetiologies (46.0%), including <i>Vibrio parahaemolyticus</i>, <i>Salmonella ssp.</i>, and <i>Staphylococcus aureus</i>, were identified as the main causes of foodborne outbreaks. Furthermore, mushroom toxins (75.0%), poisonous animals (12.5%), and poisonous plants (12.5%) were responsible for deaths from accidental ingestion. This study identified crucial settings and aetiologies that require the attention of both individuals and governments, thereby enabling the development of effective preventive measures to mitigate foodborne outbreaks, particularly in coastal cities.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e175"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11696585/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142667239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-19DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001651
Jocelyne Suter, Isabelle Devos, Katarina L Matthes, Kaspar Staub
Our study aims to enhance future pandemic preparedness by leveraging insights from historical pandemics, focusing on the multidimensional analysis of past outbreaks. In this study, we digitised and analysed for the first time aggregated mortality and morbidity data series from the Russian flu in Switzerland in 1889/1890 and subsequent years to assess its comprehensive impact. The strongest effects were observed in January 1890, showing significant monthly excess mortality from all causes compared to the preceding five years (58.9%, 95% CI 36.6 to 81.0). Even though the whole of Switzerland was affected, the impact varied regionally due to ecological variations. Deaths from other conditions such as tuberculosis and heart disease also increased during this period. A significant drop in birth occurred 9 months later, in the autumn of 1890. Morbidity estimates by physicians suggest that around 60% of the Swiss population fell ill, with regional discrepancies and earlier outbreaks among postal workers (1-2 weeks earlier than the rest of the population). A subsequent spike in all-cause excess and influenza mortality was recorded in January 1894 but more localized than in 1890. Our findings show no cross-protection between the 1890 and 1894 outbreaks.
我们的研究旨在通过利用历史大流行的见解,着重于对过去疫情的多维分析,加强未来的大流行防范。在这项研究中,我们首次数字化并分析了1889/1890年及随后几年瑞士俄罗斯流感的总死亡率和发病率数据系列,以评估其综合影响。在1890年1月观察到最强烈的影响,与前5年相比,所有原因造成的每月死亡率显著增加(58.9%,95% CI 36.6至81.0)。尽管整个瑞士都受到了影响,但由于生态环境的变化,影响也因地区而异。在此期间,因肺结核和心脏病等其他疾病死亡的人数也有所增加。9个月后,也就是1890年秋天,出生率大幅下降。医生对发病率的估计表明,大约60%的瑞士人口患病,地区差异较大,邮政工作者发病较早(比其他人口早1-2周)。随后在1894年1月记录了全因过量和流感死亡率的高峰,但比1890年更局限。我们的研究结果表明,1890年和1894年的疫情之间没有交叉保护。
{"title":"The health and demographic impacts of the \"Russian flu\" pandemic in Switzerland in 1889/1890 and in the years thereafter.","authors":"Jocelyne Suter, Isabelle Devos, Katarina L Matthes, Kaspar Staub","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001651","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824001651","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Our study aims to enhance future pandemic preparedness by leveraging insights from historical pandemics, focusing on the multidimensional analysis of past outbreaks. In this study, we digitised and analysed for the first time aggregated mortality and morbidity data series from the Russian flu in Switzerland in 1889/1890 and subsequent years to assess its comprehensive impact. The strongest effects were observed in January 1890, showing significant monthly excess mortality from all causes compared to the preceding five years (58.9%, 95% CI 36.6 to 81.0). Even though the whole of Switzerland was affected, the impact varied regionally due to ecological variations. Deaths from other conditions such as tuberculosis and heart disease also increased during this period. A significant drop in birth occurred 9 months later, in the autumn of 1890. Morbidity estimates by physicians suggest that around 60% of the Swiss population fell ill, with regional discrepancies and earlier outbreaks among postal workers (1-2 weeks earlier than the rest of the population). A subsequent spike in all-cause excess and influenza mortality was recorded in January 1894 but more localized than in 1890. Our findings show no cross-protection between the 1890 and 1894 outbreaks.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e174"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11696589/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142667353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-18DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001353
Christine Prosperi, Alvira Z Hasan, Amy K Winter, Itta Krishna Chaaithanya, Neha R Salvi, Sandeep Sharma, Avi Kumar Bansal, Sanjay L Chauhan, Ragini N Kulkarni, Abhishek Lachyan, Poonam Gawali, Mitali Kapoor, Arpit Kumar Shrivastava, Saurabh K Chonker, Vaishali Bhatt, Ojas Kaduskar, Gururaj Rao Deshpande, Ignacio Esteban, R Sabarinathan, Velusamy Saravana Kumar, Shaun A Truelove, Muthusamy Santhosh Kumar, Jeromie W Vivian Thangaraj, Lucky Sangal, Sanjay M Mehendale, Gajanan N Sapkal, Nivedita Gupta, Kyla Hayford, William J Moss, Manoj V Murhekar
Residual blood specimens provide a sample repository that could be analyzed to estimate and track changes in seroprevalence with fewer resources than household-based surveys. We conducted parallel facility and community-based cross-sectional serological surveys in two districts in India, Kanpur Nagar District, Uttar Pradesh, and Palghar District, Maharashtra, before and after a measles-rubella supplemental immunization activity (MR-SIA) from 2018 to 2019. Anonymized residual specimens from children 9 months to younger than 15 years of age were collected from public and private diagnostic laboratories and public hospitals and tested for IgG antibodies to measles and rubella viruses. Significant increases in seroprevalence were observed following the MR SIA using the facility-based specimens. Younger children whose specimens were tested at a public facility in Kanpur Nagar District had significantly lower rubella seroprevalence prior to the SIA compared to those attending a private hospital, but this difference was not observed following the SIA. Similar increases in rubella seroprevalence were observed in facility-based and community-based serosurveys following the MR SIA, but trends in measles seroprevalence were inconsistent between the two specimen sources. Despite challenges with representativeness and limited metadata, residual specimens can be useful in estimating seroprevalence and assessing trends through facility-based sentinel surveillance.
残留血液标本提供了一个样本库,通过对其进行分析,可以估算和跟踪血清流行率的变化,而所需的资源比基于家庭的调查要少。我们于 2018 年至 2019 年在印度北方邦坎普尔纳加尔区和马哈拉施特拉邦帕尔加尔区这两个地区开展了麻疹风疹补充免疫活动(MR-SIA)前后平行的设施和社区横断面血清学调查。我们从公共和私营诊断实验室以及公立医院收集了 9 个月至 15 岁以下儿童的匿名残留标本,并对其进行了麻疹和风疹病毒 IgG 抗体检测。使用设施标本进行 MR SIA 后,观察到血清流行率显著增加。与在私立医院就诊的儿童相比,在坎普尔纳加尔区公共机构检测标本的幼儿在 SIA 之前的风疹血清流行率明显较低,但在 SIA 之后没有观察到这种差异。在 MR SIA 之后进行的基于医疗机构和社区的血清调查中,观察到风疹血清阳性率出现了类似的增长,但两种样本来源的麻疹血清阳性率趋势并不一致。尽管在代表性和有限的元数据方面存在挑战,但残留标本在通过基于设施的哨点监测来估计血清流行率和评估趋势方面还是很有用的。
{"title":"Increased measles and rubella seroprevalence in children using residual blood samples from health facilities and household serosurveys after supplementary immunization activities in two districts in India.","authors":"Christine Prosperi, Alvira Z Hasan, Amy K Winter, Itta Krishna Chaaithanya, Neha R Salvi, Sandeep Sharma, Avi Kumar Bansal, Sanjay L Chauhan, Ragini N Kulkarni, Abhishek Lachyan, Poonam Gawali, Mitali Kapoor, Arpit Kumar Shrivastava, Saurabh K Chonker, Vaishali Bhatt, Ojas Kaduskar, Gururaj Rao Deshpande, Ignacio Esteban, R Sabarinathan, Velusamy Saravana Kumar, Shaun A Truelove, Muthusamy Santhosh Kumar, Jeromie W Vivian Thangaraj, Lucky Sangal, Sanjay M Mehendale, Gajanan N Sapkal, Nivedita Gupta, Kyla Hayford, William J Moss, Manoj V Murhekar","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001353","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824001353","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Residual blood specimens provide a sample repository that could be analyzed to estimate and track changes in seroprevalence with fewer resources than household-based surveys. We conducted parallel facility and community-based cross-sectional serological surveys in two districts in India, Kanpur Nagar District, Uttar Pradesh, and Palghar District, Maharashtra, before and after a measles-rubella supplemental immunization activity (MR-SIA) from 2018 to 2019. Anonymized residual specimens from children 9 months to younger than 15 years of age were collected from public and private diagnostic laboratories and public hospitals and tested for IgG antibodies to measles and rubella viruses. Significant increases in seroprevalence were observed following the MR SIA using the facility-based specimens. Younger children whose specimens were tested at a public facility in Kanpur Nagar District had significantly lower rubella seroprevalence prior to the SIA compared to those attending a private hospital, but this difference was not observed following the SIA. Similar increases in rubella seroprevalence were observed in facility-based and community-based serosurveys following the MR SIA, but trends in measles seroprevalence were inconsistent between the two specimen sources. Despite challenges with representativeness and limited metadata, residual specimens can be useful in estimating seroprevalence and assessing trends through facility-based sentinel surveillance.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e143"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11574605/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142647039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-18DOI: 10.1017/S095026882400133X
Temitope O C Faleye, Peter Skidmore, Amir Elyaderani, Sangeet Adhikari, Nicole Kaiser, Abriana Smith, Allan Yanez, Tyler Perleberg, Erin M Driver, Rolf U Halden, Arvind Varsani, Matthew Scotch
By coupling long-range polymerase chain reaction, wastewater-based epidemiology, and pathogen sequencing, we show that adenovirus type 41 hexon-sequence lineages, described in children with hepatitis of unknown origin in the United States in 2021, were already circulating within the country in 2019. We also observed other lineages in the wastewater, whose complete genomes have yet to be documented from clinical samples.
{"title":"Adenovirus 41 diversity in Arizona (USA) using wastewater-based epidemiology, long-range PCR, and pathogen sequencing between October 2019 and March 2020.","authors":"Temitope O C Faleye, Peter Skidmore, Amir Elyaderani, Sangeet Adhikari, Nicole Kaiser, Abriana Smith, Allan Yanez, Tyler Perleberg, Erin M Driver, Rolf U Halden, Arvind Varsani, Matthew Scotch","doi":"10.1017/S095026882400133X","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S095026882400133X","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>By coupling long-range polymerase chain reaction, wastewater-based epidemiology, and pathogen sequencing, we show that adenovirus type 41 hexon-sequence lineages, described in children with hepatitis of unknown origin in the United States in 2021, were already circulating within the country in 2019. We also observed other lineages in the wastewater, whose complete genomes have yet to be documented from clinical samples.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e142"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11574596/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142647037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We report a foodborne outbreak of the previously undetected Cryptosporidium parvum gp60 subtype IIγA11. In December 2023, notifications of cryptosporidiosis cases increased in Sweden, prompting the initiation of a national outbreak investigation, and a case-control study was performed to identify the source. We identified 60 cases between 15 December 2023 and 1 January 2024. The median age was 44 years (range: 16-81), and 73% were women. Controls were recruited from a national random pool; frequency was matched by age group and sex. Compared to controls, cases were more likely to have consumed items from salad bars in grocery stores (8% vs. 85%; adjusted odds ratios [aOR]: 58; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 22-186). In regards to food items from the salad bars, cases were more likely to have consumed kale mix salad compared to controls (62% vs. 32%; aOR: 3.6; 95%CI: 1.2-12). Trace-back investigations identified kale producers from Sweden, Belgium, and Spain, but no particular grower was identified, and no food samples were available for microbiological analysis. Our investigation indicates that leafy greens such as kale may contain Cryptosporidium spp. and cause outbreaks and it is important to understand how the contamination occurs to prevent future outbreaks and apply adequate preventive measures.
{"title":"Outbreak of the novel <i>Cryptosporidium parvum</i> IIγA11 linked to salad bars in Sweden, December 2023.","authors":"Ioana Bujila, Anna Ohlson, Anette Hansen, Lady Agudelo, Sharon Kühlmann-Berenzon, Ilias Galanis, Ingela Hall, Ann-Mari Gustavsson, Marianne Lebbad, Mats Lindblad, Caroline Rönnberg, Moa Rehn","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001432","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824001432","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We report a foodborne outbreak of the previously undetected <i>Cryptosporidium parvum gp60</i> subtype IIγA11. In December 2023, notifications of cryptosporidiosis cases increased in Sweden, prompting the initiation of a national outbreak investigation, and a case-control study was performed to identify the source. We identified 60 cases between 15 December 2023 and 1 January 2024. The median age was 44 years (range: 16-81), and 73% were women. Controls were recruited from a national random pool; frequency was matched by age group and sex. Compared to controls, cases were more likely to have consumed items from salad bars in grocery stores (8% vs. 85%; adjusted odds ratios [aOR]: 58; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 22-186). In regards to food items from the salad bars, cases were more likely to have consumed kale mix salad compared to controls (62% vs. 32%; aOR: 3.6; 95%CI: 1.2-12). Trace-back investigations identified kale producers from Sweden, Belgium, and Spain, but no particular grower was identified, and no food samples were available for microbiological analysis. Our investigation indicates that leafy greens such as kale may contain <i>Cryptosporidium</i> spp. and cause outbreaks and it is important to understand how the contamination occurs to prevent future outbreaks and apply adequate preventive measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e140"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11574604/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142646957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-18DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001079
Eliana Ferroni, Alberto Mateo-Urdiales, Carla Bietta, Giulia Cesaroni, Simona Anticoli, Elisa Di Maggio, Angela Ancona, Daniele Petrone, Andrea Cannone, Chiara Sacco, Massimo Fabiani, Martina Del Manso, Flavia Riccardo, Antonino Bella, Anna Ruggieri, Patrizio Pezzotti
Since the beginning of mass vaccination campaign for COVID-19 in Italy (December 2020) and following the rapidly increasing vaccine administration, sex differences have been emphasized. Nevertheless, incomplete and frequently incoherent sex-disaggregated data for COVID-19 vaccinations are currently available, and vaccines clinical studies generally do not include sex-specific analyses for safety and efficacy. We looked at sex variations in the COVID-19 vaccine's effectiveness against infection and severe disease outcomes. We conducted a nationwide retrospective cohort study on Italian population, linking information on COVID-19 vaccine administrations obtained through the Italian National Vaccination Registry, with the COVID-19 integrated surveillance system, held by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità. The results showed that, in all age groups, vaccine effectiveness (VE) was higher in the time-interval ≤120 days post-vaccination. In terms of the sex difference in vaccination effectiveness, men and women were protected against serious illness by vaccination in a comparable way, while men were protected against infection to a somewhat greater extent than women. To fully understand the mechanisms underlying the sex difference in vaccine response and its consequences for vaccine effectiveness and development, further research is required. The sex-related analysis of vaccine response may contribute to adjust vaccination strategies, improving overall public health programmes.
{"title":"Sex differences in response to COVID-19 mRNA vaccines in Italian population.","authors":"Eliana Ferroni, Alberto Mateo-Urdiales, Carla Bietta, Giulia Cesaroni, Simona Anticoli, Elisa Di Maggio, Angela Ancona, Daniele Petrone, Andrea Cannone, Chiara Sacco, Massimo Fabiani, Martina Del Manso, Flavia Riccardo, Antonino Bella, Anna Ruggieri, Patrizio Pezzotti","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001079","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824001079","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Since the beginning of mass vaccination campaign for COVID-19 in Italy (December 2020) and following the rapidly increasing vaccine administration, sex differences have been emphasized. Nevertheless, incomplete and frequently incoherent sex-disaggregated data for COVID-19 vaccinations are currently available, and vaccines clinical studies generally do not include sex-specific analyses for safety and efficacy. We looked at sex variations in the COVID-19 vaccine's effectiveness against infection and severe disease outcomes. We conducted a nationwide retrospective cohort study on Italian population, linking information on COVID-19 vaccine administrations obtained through the Italian National Vaccination Registry, with the COVID-19 integrated surveillance system, held by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità. The results showed that, in all age groups, vaccine effectiveness (VE) was higher in the time-interval ≤120 days post-vaccination. In terms of the sex difference in vaccination effectiveness, men and women were protected against serious illness by vaccination in a comparable way, while men were protected against infection to a somewhat greater extent than women. To fully understand the mechanisms underlying the sex difference in vaccine response and its consequences for vaccine effectiveness and development, further research is required. The sex-related analysis of vaccine response may contribute to adjust vaccination strategies, improving overall public health programmes.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e139"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11574602/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142646963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Predicting epidemic trends of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains a key public health concern globally today. However, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfection rate in previous studies of the transmission dynamics model was mostly a fixed value. Therefore, we proposed a meta-Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS) model by adding a time-varying SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rate to the transmission dynamics model to more accurately characterize the changes in the number of infected persons. The time-varying reinfection rate was estimated using random-effect multivariate meta-regression based on published literature reports of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rates. The meta-SEIRS model was constructed to predict the epidemic trend of COVID-19 from February to December 2023 in Sichuan province. Finally, according to the online questionnaire survey, the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate at the end of December 2022 in Sichuan province was 82.45%. The time-varying effective reproduction number in Sichuan province had two peaks from July to December 2022, with a maximum peak value of about 15. The prediction results based on the meta-SEIRS model showed that the highest peak of the second wave of COVID-19 in Sichuan province would be in late May 2023. The number of new infections per day at the peak would be up to 2.6 million. We constructed a meta-SEIRS model to predict the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in Sichuan province, which was consistent with the trend of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in China. Therefore, a meta-SEIRS model parameterized based on evidence-based data can be more relevant to the actual situation and thus more accurately predict future trends in the number of infections.
{"title":"Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 infection cases based on the meta-SEIRS model.","authors":"Wenhui Zhu, Xuefeng Tang, Ying Chen, Miaoshuang Chen, Xinyue Han, Yuhuan Xie, Qiang Lv, Rongjie Wei, Dingzi Zhou, Changhong Yang, Tao Zhang","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001274","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824001274","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Predicting epidemic trends of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains a key public health concern globally today. However, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfection rate in previous studies of the transmission dynamics model was mostly a fixed value. Therefore, we proposed a meta-Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS) model by adding a time-varying SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rate to the transmission dynamics model to more accurately characterize the changes in the number of infected persons. The time-varying reinfection rate was estimated using random-effect multivariate meta-regression based on published literature reports of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rates. The meta-SEIRS model was constructed to predict the epidemic trend of COVID-19 from February to December 2023 in Sichuan province. Finally, according to the online questionnaire survey, the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate at the end of December 2022 in Sichuan province was 82.45%. The time-varying effective reproduction number in Sichuan province had two peaks from July to December 2022, with a maximum peak value of about 15. The prediction results based on the meta-SEIRS model showed that the highest peak of the second wave of COVID-19 in Sichuan province would be in late May 2023. The number of new infections per day at the peak would be up to 2.6 million. We constructed a meta-SEIRS model to predict the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in Sichuan province, which was consistent with the trend of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in China. Therefore, a meta-SEIRS model parameterized based on evidence-based data can be more relevant to the actual situation and thus more accurately predict future trends in the number of infections.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e144"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11574606/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142646960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}