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A self-driven ESN-DSS approach for effective COVID-19 time series prediction and modelling. 用于有效 COVID-19 时间序列预测和建模的自驱动 ESN-DSS 方法。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000992
Weiye Wang, Qing Li, Junsong Wang

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, it has posed a great crisis to the health and economy of the world. The objective is to provide a simple deep-learning approach for predicting, modelling, and evaluating the time evolutions of the COVID-19 epidemic. The Dove Swarm Search (DSS) algorithm is integrated with the echo state network (ESN) to optimize the weight. The ESN-DSS model is constructed to predict the evolution of the COVID-19 time series. Specifically, the self-driven ESN-DSS is created to form a closed feedback loop by replacing the input with the output. The prediction results, which involve COVID-19 temporal evolutions of multiple countries worldwide, indicate the excellent prediction performances of our model compared with several artificial intelligence prediction methods from the literature (e.g., recurrent neural network, long short-term memory, gated recurrent units, variational auto encoder) at the same time scale. Moreover, the model parameters of the self-driven ESN-DSS are determined which acts as a significant impact on the prediction performance. As a result, the network parameters are adjusted to improve the prediction accuracy. The prediction results can be used as proposals to help governments and medical institutions formulate pertinent precautionary measures to prevent further spread. In addition, this study is not only limited to COVID-19 time series forecasting but also applicable to other nonlinear time series prediction problems.

自 COVID-19 疫情爆发以来,已对全球的健康和经济造成了巨大危机。我们的目标是提供一种简单的深度学习方法,用于预测、模拟和评估 COVID-19 疫情的时间演变。鸽群搜索(DSS)算法与回声状态网络(ESN)相结合,以优化权重。ESN-DSS 模型用于预测 COVID-19 时间序列的演变。具体地说,自驱动 ESN-DSS 通过用输出替代输入形成闭合反馈回路。预测结果涉及全球多个国家的 COVID-19 时间演变,与文献中的几种人工智能预测方法(如递归神经网络、长短期记忆、门控递归单元、变异自动编码器)相比,我们的模型在相同时间尺度上具有优异的预测性能。此外,自驱动 ESN-DSS 模型参数的确定对预测性能有重要影响。因此,需要对网络参数进行调整,以提高预测精度。预测结果可作为建议,帮助政府和医疗机构制定相关预防措施,防止进一步传播。此外,本研究不仅限于 COVID-19 时间序列预测,也适用于其他非线性时间序列预测问题。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying risk factors for clinical Lassa fever in Sierra Leone, 2019-2021. 确定 2019-2021 年塞拉利昂临床拉沙热的风险因素。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1017/S095026882400164X
Daniel Juma Sama, Najmul Haider, Javier Guitian, Abdinasir Yusuf Osman, Francine Ntoumi, Alimuddin Zumla, Richard Kock, Rashid Ansumana

Lassa fever (LF) virus (LASV) is endemic in Sierra Leone (SL) and poses a significant public health threat to the region; however, no risk factors for clinical LF have been reported in SL. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors for clinical LF in an endemic community in SL. We conducted a case-control study by enrolling 37 laboratory-confirmed LF cases identified through the national LF surveillance system in SL and 140 controls resided within a one-kilometre radius of the case household. We performed a conditional multiple logistic regression analysis to identify the risk factors for clinical LF. Of the 37 cases enrolled, 23 died (62% case fatality rate). Cases were younger than controls (19.5 years vs 28.9 years, p < 0.05) and more frequently female (64.8% vs 52.8%). Compared to the controls, clinical LF cases had higher contact with rodents (rats or mice) in their households in the preceding three weeks (83.8% vs 47.8%). Households with a cat reported a lower presence of rodents (73% vs 38%, p < 0.01) and contributed to a lower rate of clinical LF (48.6% vs 55.7%) although not statistically significant (p = 0.56). The presence of rodents in the households (matched adjusted odds ratio (mAOR): 11.1) and younger age (mAOR: 0.99) were independently associated with clinical LF.Rodent access to households and younger age were independently associated with clinical LF. Rodent access to households is likely a key risk factor for clinical LF in rural SL and potentially in other countries within the West African region. Implementing measures to control rodents and their access to households could potentially decrease the number of clinical LF cases in rural SL and West Africa.

拉沙热病毒(LASV)在塞拉利昂(SL)流行,对该区域构成重大公共卫生威胁;然而,在SL没有临床LF危险因素的报道。本研究的目的是确定SL流行社区临床LF的危险因素。我们进行了一项病例对照研究,招募了37例通过SL国家LF监测系统确定的实验室确诊的LF病例和140名居住在病例家庭一公里半径内的对照。我们进行了条件多元逻辑回归分析,以确定临床LF的危险因素。在登记的37例病例中,23例死亡(病死率62%)。患者年龄小于对照组(19.5岁vs 28.9岁,p < 0.05),女性患者较多(64.8% vs 52.8%)。与对照组相比,临床LF病例在前三周内与家中啮齿动物(大鼠或小鼠)接触较多(83.8% vs 47.8%)。有猫的家庭报告啮齿动物的存在率较低(73%对38%,p < 0.01),并有助于降低临床LF率(48.6%对55.7%),尽管没有统计学意义(p = 0.56)。家庭中存在啮齿动物(匹配调整优势比(mAOR): 11.1)和年龄较小(mAOR: 0.99)与临床LF独立相关。啮齿动物进入家庭和较年轻的年龄与临床LF独立相关。啮齿动物进入家庭可能是SL农村地区以及西非地区其他国家发生临床LF的一个关键风险因素。实施控制啮齿动物及其进入家庭的措施可能会减少SL和西非农村地区的临床LF病例数。
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引用次数: 0
Association between age of paediatric index cases and household SARS-CoV-2 transmission. 儿科感染病例的年龄与 SARS-CoV-2 家庭传播之间的关系。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000918
Amanda Markelz, Zachary Zirnhelt, Keeley Morris, Scott A Seys, Abbey Ruhland, Ashley Fell, Lydia Fess, Kathryn Como-Sabetti, Stephanie Meyer

SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics within households involving children are complex. We examined the association between paediatric index case (PIC) age and subsequent household SARS-CoV-2 transmission among cases reported to the Minnesota Department of Health between March 2021 and February 2022. In our primary analysis, we used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios adjusted for race/ethnicity, sex, geographic region, and disease severity among households with an unvaccinated PIC. We performed a secondary analysis among households where the PIC was eligible for vaccination adjusting for the same covariates plus time since the last vaccination. Both analyses were stratified by variant wave. During the Alpha wave, PICs of all age groups had similar odds of subsequent transmission. During Delta and Omicron waves, PICs aged 16-17 had higher odds of subsequent transmission than PICs aged 0-4 (Delta OR, 1.32; [95% CI, 1.16-1.51], Omicron OR, 4.21; [95% CI, 3.25-5.45]). In the secondary analysis, unvaccinated PICs had higher odds of subsequent transmission than vaccinated PICs (Delta OR 2.89 [95% CI, 2.18-3.84], Omicron OR 1.35 [95% CI, 1.21-1.50]). Enhanced preventative measures, especially for 12-17-year-olds, may limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission within households involving children.

有儿童参与的家庭内 SARS-CoV-2 传播动态非常复杂。我们研究了 2021 年 3 月至 2022 年 2 月期间向明尼苏达州卫生局报告的病例中,儿科病例(PIC)年龄与随后的家庭 SARS-CoV-2 传播之间的关系。在主要分析中,我们使用逻辑回归估计了未接种疫苗的 PIC 家庭中根据种族/人种、性别、地理区域和疾病严重程度调整后的几率比率。我们对有符合接种条件的 PIC 的家庭进行了二次分析,并对相同的协变量以及自上次接种疫苗以来的时间进行了调整。这两项分析均按变异波进行了分层。在阿尔法波期间,所有年龄组的人感染疾病的几率相似。在 Delta 波和 Omicron 波期间,16-17 岁的 PIC 比 0-4 岁的 PIC 发生后续传播的几率更高(Delta OR,1.32;[95% CI,1.16-1.51];Omicron OR,4.21;[95% CI,3.25-5.45])。在二次分析中,未接种疫苗的土著居民比接种疫苗的土著居民发生后续传播的几率更高(德尔塔 OR 为 2.89 [95% CI,2.18-3.84];奥米克隆 OR 为 1.35 [95% CI,1.21-1.50])。加强预防措施,尤其是针对 12-17 岁儿童的预防措施,可能会限制 SARS-CoV-2 在有儿童的家庭中传播。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of foodborne outbreaks in Wenzhou City, China, 2012-2022. 2012-2022 年中国温州市食源性疾病暴发分析。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001626
Sihai Gao, Qingqing Chen, Lei Chen, Yuanyuan Cai, Dan Lin, Lili Wang, Minhe Chen, Yi Li, Leyi Zhang, Yongqiang Shao

Foodborne diseases are ongoing and significant public health concerns. This study analysed data obtained from the Foodborne Outbreaks Surveillance System of Wenzhou to comprehensively summarise the characteristics of foodborne outbreaks from 2012 to 2022. A total of 198 outbreaks were reported, resulting in 2,216 cases, 208 hospitalisations, and eight deaths over 11 years. The findings suggested that foodborne outbreaks were more prevalent in the third quarter, with most cases occurring in households (30.8%). Outbreaks were primarily associated with aquatic products (17.7%) as sources of contamination. The primary transmission pathways were accidental ingestion (20.2%) and multi-pathway transmission (12.1%). Microbiological aetiologies (46.0%), including Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Salmonella ssp., and Staphylococcus aureus, were identified as the main causes of foodborne outbreaks. Furthermore, mushroom toxins (75.0%), poisonous animals (12.5%), and poisonous plants (12.5%) were responsible for deaths from accidental ingestion. This study identified crucial settings and aetiologies that require the attention of both individuals and governments, thereby enabling the development of effective preventive measures to mitigate foodborne outbreaks, particularly in coastal cities.

食源性疾病是持续存在的重大公共卫生问题。本研究通过分析温州市食源性疫情监测系统数据,综合总结2012 - 2022年温州市食源性疫情的特点。11年间共报告了198次疫情,造成2,216例病例,208人住院,8人死亡。调查结果表明,食源性暴发在第三季度更为普遍,大多数病例发生在家庭中(30.8%)。疫情主要与水产品(17.7%)有关,是污染源。主要传播途径为误食(20.2%)和多途径传播(12.1%)。微生物病原学(46.0%):副溶血性弧菌、沙门菌;和金黄色葡萄球菌被确定为食源性暴发的主要原因。此外,蘑菇毒素(75.0%)、有毒动物(12.5%)和有毒植物(12.5%)是导致意外摄入死亡的原因。这项研究确定了需要个人和政府关注的关键环境和病因,从而能够制定有效的预防措施,以减轻食源性疾病暴发,特别是在沿海城市。
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引用次数: 0
The health and demographic impacts of the "Russian flu" pandemic in Switzerland in 1889/1890 and in the years thereafter. 1889/1890 年及其后几年 "俄罗斯流感 "大流行对瑞士健康和人口的影响。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001651
Jocelyne Suter, Isabelle Devos, Katarina L Matthes, Kaspar Staub

Our study aims to enhance future pandemic preparedness by leveraging insights from historical pandemics, focusing on the multidimensional analysis of past outbreaks. In this study, we digitised and analysed for the first time aggregated mortality and morbidity data series from the Russian flu in Switzerland in 1889/1890 and subsequent years to assess its comprehensive impact. The strongest effects were observed in January 1890, showing significant monthly excess mortality from all causes compared to the preceding five years (58.9%, 95% CI 36.6 to 81.0). Even though the whole of Switzerland was affected, the impact varied regionally due to ecological variations. Deaths from other conditions such as tuberculosis and heart disease also increased during this period. A significant drop in birth occurred 9 months later, in the autumn of 1890. Morbidity estimates by physicians suggest that around 60% of the Swiss population fell ill, with regional discrepancies and earlier outbreaks among postal workers (1-2 weeks earlier than the rest of the population). A subsequent spike in all-cause excess and influenza mortality was recorded in January 1894 but more localized than in 1890. Our findings show no cross-protection between the 1890 and 1894 outbreaks.

我们的研究旨在通过利用历史大流行的见解,着重于对过去疫情的多维分析,加强未来的大流行防范。在这项研究中,我们首次数字化并分析了1889/1890年及随后几年瑞士俄罗斯流感的总死亡率和发病率数据系列,以评估其综合影响。在1890年1月观察到最强烈的影响,与前5年相比,所有原因造成的每月死亡率显著增加(58.9%,95% CI 36.6至81.0)。尽管整个瑞士都受到了影响,但由于生态环境的变化,影响也因地区而异。在此期间,因肺结核和心脏病等其他疾病死亡的人数也有所增加。9个月后,也就是1890年秋天,出生率大幅下降。医生对发病率的估计表明,大约60%的瑞士人口患病,地区差异较大,邮政工作者发病较早(比其他人口早1-2周)。随后在1894年1月记录了全因过量和流感死亡率的高峰,但比1890年更局限。我们的研究结果表明,1890年和1894年的疫情之间没有交叉保护。
{"title":"The health and demographic impacts of the \"Russian flu\" pandemic in Switzerland in 1889/1890 and in the years thereafter.","authors":"Jocelyne Suter, Isabelle Devos, Katarina L Matthes, Kaspar Staub","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001651","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824001651","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Our study aims to enhance future pandemic preparedness by leveraging insights from historical pandemics, focusing on the multidimensional analysis of past outbreaks. In this study, we digitised and analysed for the first time aggregated mortality and morbidity data series from the Russian flu in Switzerland in 1889/1890 and subsequent years to assess its comprehensive impact. The strongest effects were observed in January 1890, showing significant monthly excess mortality from all causes compared to the preceding five years (58.9%, 95% CI 36.6 to 81.0). Even though the whole of Switzerland was affected, the impact varied regionally due to ecological variations. Deaths from other conditions such as tuberculosis and heart disease also increased during this period. A significant drop in birth occurred 9 months later, in the autumn of 1890. Morbidity estimates by physicians suggest that around 60% of the Swiss population fell ill, with regional discrepancies and earlier outbreaks among postal workers (1-2 weeks earlier than the rest of the population). A subsequent spike in all-cause excess and influenza mortality was recorded in January 1894 but more localized than in 1890. Our findings show no cross-protection between the 1890 and 1894 outbreaks.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e174"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11696589/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142667353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Increased measles and rubella seroprevalence in children using residual blood samples from health facilities and household serosurveys after supplementary immunization activities in two districts in India. 在印度两个地区开展补充免疫接种活动后,利用卫生机构和家庭血清调查的残留血样,提高了儿童的麻疹和风疹血清流行率。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001353
Christine Prosperi, Alvira Z Hasan, Amy K Winter, Itta Krishna Chaaithanya, Neha R Salvi, Sandeep Sharma, Avi Kumar Bansal, Sanjay L Chauhan, Ragini N Kulkarni, Abhishek Lachyan, Poonam Gawali, Mitali Kapoor, Arpit Kumar Shrivastava, Saurabh K Chonker, Vaishali Bhatt, Ojas Kaduskar, Gururaj Rao Deshpande, Ignacio Esteban, R Sabarinathan, Velusamy Saravana Kumar, Shaun A Truelove, Muthusamy Santhosh Kumar, Jeromie W Vivian Thangaraj, Lucky Sangal, Sanjay M Mehendale, Gajanan N Sapkal, Nivedita Gupta, Kyla Hayford, William J Moss, Manoj V Murhekar

Residual blood specimens provide a sample repository that could be analyzed to estimate and track changes in seroprevalence with fewer resources than household-based surveys. We conducted parallel facility and community-based cross-sectional serological surveys in two districts in India, Kanpur Nagar District, Uttar Pradesh, and Palghar District, Maharashtra, before and after a measles-rubella supplemental immunization activity (MR-SIA) from 2018 to 2019. Anonymized residual specimens from children 9 months to younger than 15 years of age were collected from public and private diagnostic laboratories and public hospitals and tested for IgG antibodies to measles and rubella viruses. Significant increases in seroprevalence were observed following the MR SIA using the facility-based specimens. Younger children whose specimens were tested at a public facility in Kanpur Nagar District had significantly lower rubella seroprevalence prior to the SIA compared to those attending a private hospital, but this difference was not observed following the SIA. Similar increases in rubella seroprevalence were observed in facility-based and community-based serosurveys following the MR SIA, but trends in measles seroprevalence were inconsistent between the two specimen sources. Despite challenges with representativeness and limited metadata, residual specimens can be useful in estimating seroprevalence and assessing trends through facility-based sentinel surveillance.

残留血液标本提供了一个样本库,通过对其进行分析,可以估算和跟踪血清流行率的变化,而所需的资源比基于家庭的调查要少。我们于 2018 年至 2019 年在印度北方邦坎普尔纳加尔区和马哈拉施特拉邦帕尔加尔区这两个地区开展了麻疹风疹补充免疫活动(MR-SIA)前后平行的设施和社区横断面血清学调查。我们从公共和私营诊断实验室以及公立医院收集了 9 个月至 15 岁以下儿童的匿名残留标本,并对其进行了麻疹和风疹病毒 IgG 抗体检测。使用设施标本进行 MR SIA 后,观察到血清流行率显著增加。与在私立医院就诊的儿童相比,在坎普尔纳加尔区公共机构检测标本的幼儿在 SIA 之前的风疹血清流行率明显较低,但在 SIA 之后没有观察到这种差异。在 MR SIA 之后进行的基于医疗机构和社区的血清调查中,观察到风疹血清阳性率出现了类似的增长,但两种样本来源的麻疹血清阳性率趋势并不一致。尽管在代表性和有限的元数据方面存在挑战,但残留标本在通过基于设施的哨点监测来估计血清流行率和评估趋势方面还是很有用的。
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引用次数: 0
Adenovirus 41 diversity in Arizona (USA) using wastewater-based epidemiology, long-range PCR, and pathogen sequencing between October 2019 and March 2020. 在 2019 年 10 月至 2020 年 3 月期间,利用基于废水的流行病学、长程 PCR 和病原体测序,研究亚利桑那州(美国)腺病毒 41 的多样性。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1017/S095026882400133X
Temitope O C Faleye, Peter Skidmore, Amir Elyaderani, Sangeet Adhikari, Nicole Kaiser, Abriana Smith, Allan Yanez, Tyler Perleberg, Erin M Driver, Rolf U Halden, Arvind Varsani, Matthew Scotch

By coupling long-range polymerase chain reaction, wastewater-based epidemiology, and pathogen sequencing, we show that adenovirus type 41 hexon-sequence lineages, described in children with hepatitis of unknown origin in the United States in 2021, were already circulating within the country in 2019. We also observed other lineages in the wastewater, whose complete genomes have yet to be documented from clinical samples.

通过将长程聚合酶链式反应、基于废水的流行病学和病原体测序结合起来,我们发现 2021 年在美国不明原因肝炎患儿中发现的 41 型腺病毒六元序列,在 2019 年已经在美国国内流行。我们还观察到废水中的其他品系,它们的完整基因组尚未从临床样本中得到记录。
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引用次数: 0
Outbreak of the novel Cryptosporidium parvum IIγA11 linked to salad bars in Sweden, December 2023. 2023 年 12 月,瑞典爆发与沙拉吧有关的新型副隐孢子虫 IIγA11。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001432
Ioana Bujila, Anna Ohlson, Anette Hansen, Lady Agudelo, Sharon Kühlmann-Berenzon, Ilias Galanis, Ingela Hall, Ann-Mari Gustavsson, Marianne Lebbad, Mats Lindblad, Caroline Rönnberg, Moa Rehn

We report a foodborne outbreak of the previously undetected Cryptosporidium parvum gp60 subtype IIγA11. In December 2023, notifications of cryptosporidiosis cases increased in Sweden, prompting the initiation of a national outbreak investigation, and a case-control study was performed to identify the source. We identified 60 cases between 15 December 2023 and 1 January 2024. The median age was 44 years (range: 16-81), and 73% were women. Controls were recruited from a national random pool; frequency was matched by age group and sex. Compared to controls, cases were more likely to have consumed items from salad bars in grocery stores (8% vs. 85%; adjusted odds ratios [aOR]: 58; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 22-186). In regards to food items from the salad bars, cases were more likely to have consumed kale mix salad compared to controls (62% vs. 32%; aOR: 3.6; 95%CI: 1.2-12). Trace-back investigations identified kale producers from Sweden, Belgium, and Spain, but no particular grower was identified, and no food samples were available for microbiological analysis. Our investigation indicates that leafy greens such as kale may contain Cryptosporidium spp. and cause outbreaks and it is important to understand how the contamination occurs to prevent future outbreaks and apply adequate preventive measures.

我们报告了一起此前未被发现的副猪隐孢子虫 gp60 亚型 IIγA11 的食源性疫情。2023 年 12 月,瑞典的隐孢子虫病病例通报增加,促使启动了一项全国性疫情调查,并开展了一项病例对照研究以确定病源。我们在 2023 年 12 月 15 日至 2024 年 1 月 1 日期间发现了 60 例病例。中位年龄为 44 岁(16-81 岁),73% 为女性。对照组是从全国随机库中招募的;按年龄组和性别进行了频率匹配。与对照组相比,病例更有可能食用过杂货店沙拉吧中的食品(8% 对 85%;调整后的几率比 [aOR]:58;95% 置信区间 [CI]:22-186)。就沙拉吧中的食品而言,与对照组相比,病例更有可能食用甘蓝混合沙拉(62% 对 32%;aOR:3.6;95%CI:1.2-12)。溯源调查发现甘蓝生产商来自瑞典、比利时和西班牙,但没有确定具体的种植者,也没有食品样本可供微生物分析。我们的调查表明,羽衣甘蓝等绿叶蔬菜可能含有隐孢子虫,并可能导致疫情爆发,因此必须了解污染是如何发生的,以防止今后疫情爆发并采取适当的预防措施。
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引用次数: 0
Sex differences in response to COVID-19 mRNA vaccines in Italian population. 意大利人群对 COVID-19 mRNA 疫苗反应的性别差异。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001079
Eliana Ferroni, Alberto Mateo-Urdiales, Carla Bietta, Giulia Cesaroni, Simona Anticoli, Elisa Di Maggio, Angela Ancona, Daniele Petrone, Andrea Cannone, Chiara Sacco, Massimo Fabiani, Martina Del Manso, Flavia Riccardo, Antonino Bella, Anna Ruggieri, Patrizio Pezzotti

Since the beginning of mass vaccination campaign for COVID-19 in Italy (December 2020) and following the rapidly increasing vaccine administration, sex differences have been emphasized. Nevertheless, incomplete and frequently incoherent sex-disaggregated data for COVID-19 vaccinations are currently available, and vaccines clinical studies generally do not include sex-specific analyses for safety and efficacy. We looked at sex variations in the COVID-19 vaccine's effectiveness against infection and severe disease outcomes. We conducted a nationwide retrospective cohort study on Italian population, linking information on COVID-19 vaccine administrations obtained through the Italian National Vaccination Registry, with the COVID-19 integrated surveillance system, held by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità. The results showed that, in all age groups, vaccine effectiveness (VE) was higher in the time-interval ≤120 days post-vaccination. In terms of the sex difference in vaccination effectiveness, men and women were protected against serious illness by vaccination in a comparable way, while men were protected against infection to a somewhat greater extent than women. To fully understand the mechanisms underlying the sex difference in vaccine response and its consequences for vaccine effectiveness and development, further research is required. The sex-related analysis of vaccine response may contribute to adjust vaccination strategies, improving overall public health programmes.

自 COVID-19 疫苗在意大利开始大规模接种(2020 年 12 月)以来,随着疫苗接种量的迅速增加,性别差异也得到了重视。然而,目前有关 COVID-19 疫苗接种的性别分类数据并不完整,而且经常不连贯,疫苗临床研究一般不包括安全性和有效性的性别特异性分析。我们研究了 COVID-19 疫苗在预防感染和严重疾病后果方面的性别差异。我们对意大利人口进行了一项全国性的回顾性队列研究,将通过意大利国家疫苗接种登记处获得的 COVID-19 疫苗接种信息与 Istituto Superiore di Sanità 持有的 COVID-19 综合监控系统联系起来。结果显示,在所有年龄组中,接种后≤120 天的时间段内疫苗的有效性(VE)较高。在疫苗接种效果的性别差异方面,男性和女性通过接种疫苗预防严重疾病的效果相当,而男性预防感染的效果略高于女性。要充分了解疫苗反应性别差异的内在机制及其对疫苗有效性和开发的影响,还需要进一步的研究。对疫苗反应的性别相关分析可能有助于调整疫苗接种策略,改善整体公共卫生计划。
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引用次数: 0
Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 infection cases based on the meta-SEIRS model. 基于 Meta-SEIRS 模型的 SARS-CoV-2 感染病例预测。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001274
Wenhui Zhu, Xuefeng Tang, Ying Chen, Miaoshuang Chen, Xinyue Han, Yuhuan Xie, Qiang Lv, Rongjie Wei, Dingzi Zhou, Changhong Yang, Tao Zhang

Predicting epidemic trends of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains a key public health concern globally today. However, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfection rate in previous studies of the transmission dynamics model was mostly a fixed value. Therefore, we proposed a meta-Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS) model by adding a time-varying SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rate to the transmission dynamics model to more accurately characterize the changes in the number of infected persons. The time-varying reinfection rate was estimated using random-effect multivariate meta-regression based on published literature reports of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rates. The meta-SEIRS model was constructed to predict the epidemic trend of COVID-19 from February to December 2023 in Sichuan province. Finally, according to the online questionnaire survey, the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate at the end of December 2022 in Sichuan province was 82.45%. The time-varying effective reproduction number in Sichuan province had two peaks from July to December 2022, with a maximum peak value of about 15. The prediction results based on the meta-SEIRS model showed that the highest peak of the second wave of COVID-19 in Sichuan province would be in late May 2023. The number of new infections per day at the peak would be up to 2.6 million. We constructed a meta-SEIRS model to predict the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in Sichuan province, which was consistent with the trend of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in China. Therefore, a meta-SEIRS model parameterized based on evidence-based data can be more relevant to the actual situation and thus more accurately predict future trends in the number of infections.

预测 2019 年冠状病毒疾病(COVID-19)的流行趋势仍然是当今全球关注的一个重要公共卫生问题。然而,在以往的传播动力学模型研究中,严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)的再感染率大多是一个固定值。因此,我们提出了一种元易感-暴露-感染-恢复-易感(SEIRS)模型,在传播动力学模型中加入了随时间变化的 SARS-CoV-2 再感染率,以更准确地描述感染人数的变化。时变再感染率是根据已发表的有关 SARS-CoV-2 再感染率的文献报告,采用随机效应多元元回归法估算得出的。通过建立元-SEIRS模型,预测了2023年2月至12月COVID-19在四川省的流行趋势。最后,根据在线问卷调查,2022 年 12 月底四川省 SARS-CoV-2 感染率为 82.45%。四川省的有效繁殖数在 2022 年 7 月至 12 月期间出现了两个高峰,最高峰值约为 15。基于 meta-SEIRS 模型的预测结果显示,四川省 COVID-19 第二波的最高峰将出现在 2023 年 5 月下旬。高峰期每天新增感染人数将达到 260 万。我们构建了一个 meta-SEIRS 模型来预测 COVID-19 在四川省的流行趋势,该模型与中国的 SARS-CoV-2 阳性趋势一致。因此,基于循证数据进行参数化的元-SEIRS 模型可以更贴近实际情况,从而更准确地预测未来感染人数的趋势。
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Epidemiology and Infection
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