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Policy Uncertainty in the Scandinavian Countries 斯堪的纳维亚国家的政策不确定性
Pub Date : 2019-12-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3515202
Lars Erik Kleiven, Emil Johan Verlo Ifwarsson, L. Sendstad
Globalization drives the need to properly understand policy uncertainty and how it affects both the economy in general and business conditions. To systematically investigate the effect of policy uncertainty on small, open economies, we develop a policy uncertainty index based on newspaper content for each of the three Scandinavian countries; Norway, Denmark and Sweden. We show how these indices capture important historical events, both local events such as referendums and certain general elections, but also global events such as financial crises. Our narrative validation provides evidence that the three indices are good measures of policy uncertainty. Further, we compare historical policy uncertainty in the Scandinavian countries to a similar index for the US, before analysing the effect of both local and US policy uncertainty on the Scandinavian economies. Our findings indicate that increased policy uncertainty both at home and in the US leads to economic contraction, a significant decline in stock markets and a long-lasting reduction in the Scandinavian countries’ Purchasing Managers’ Index. These results can be highly relevant for anyone seeking to predict economic indicators in Scandinavia, or other small, open economies. Similarly, our findings can help to better understand how companies react to changes in policy uncertainty.
全球化促使人们需要正确理解政策的不确定性,以及它如何影响总体经济和商业状况。为了系统地研究政策不确定性对小型开放经济体的影响,我们基于三个斯堪的纳维亚国家的报纸内容制定了政策不确定性指数;挪威,丹麦和瑞典。我们展示了这些指数如何捕捉重要的历史事件,既包括公投和某些大选等地方事件,也包括金融危机等全球事件。我们的叙事验证提供了证据,证明这三个指标是衡量政策不确定性的良好指标。此外,我们将斯堪的纳维亚国家的历史政策不确定性与美国的类似指数进行了比较,然后分析了当地和美国政策不确定性对斯堪的纳维亚经济的影响。我们的研究结果表明,国内和美国政策不确定性的增加导致经济收缩,股市大幅下跌,斯堪的纳维亚国家采购经理人指数(pmi)长期下降。这些结果对于任何试图预测斯堪的纳维亚半岛或其他小型开放经济体经济指标的人来说都是高度相关的。同样,我们的研究结果可以帮助我们更好地理解企业如何应对政策不确定性的变化。
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引用次数: 1
Marginal Benefits? Electoral Geography and Economic Outcomes 边际效益?选举地理与经济结果
Pub Date : 2019-10-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3498694
Chris Wokker
I exploit a large natural experiment in Australia that saw the House of Representatives expand from 125 districts to 148 districts. This required substantial changes to electoral boundaries, which, for the first time, were determined by a body that was not subject to ministerial discretion. As a result of these changes to electoral boundaries, many postal areas moved from being in relative safe districts to relatively marginal districts. I examine the effect of these exogenous changes to the marginality of postal areas on median and mean incomes in subsequent years. I find no consistent relationship between changes in marginality and incomes in subsequent years. As such, there is no evidence that politicians systematically allocate income-affecting discretionary resources to marginal districts to increase their representation in Parliament, or to safe districts to ‘reward the base’.
我利用了澳大利亚的一个大型自然实验,看到众议院的选区从125个扩大到148个。这就需要对选举界作出重大改变,这是第一次由一个不受部长自由裁量权支配的机构来决定。由于选举边界的这些变化,许多邮政地区从相对安全的地区转移到相对边缘的地区。我检查了这些外生变化的影响,邮政地区的边缘对中位数和平均收入在随后的几年。我发现,在随后的几年里,边缘化的变化与收入之间没有一致的关系。因此,没有证据表明政客们有系统地将影响收入的自由裁量资源分配给边缘地区,以增加他们在议会中的代表性,或者分配给安全地区,以“奖励基础”。
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引用次数: 0
Choosing Your Pond: A Structural Model of Political Power Sharing 选择你的池塘:政治权力分享的结构模型
Pub Date : 2019-10-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3467761
Selcen Çakır
I develop a model of party formation in which politicians share their political rents with party leaders in exchange for accessing parties' club goods. Bigger parties provide greater club goods but tax politicians’ rents more upon entry. Therefore, politicians with more assets prefer smaller parties. I estimate my model for Turkey with a dataset of all listed politicians between 1995 and 2014. I find that the right-wing parties accumulate club goods more easily than they produce rents, which leads to ever stronger party control. Counterfactual exercises provide a novel explanation for the differences in party-size distributions across political systems.
我发展了一个政党形成的模型,在这个模型中,政治家与政党领导人分享他们的政治租金,以换取获得政党俱乐部的商品。更大的政党提供更多的俱乐部商品,但对政治家的租金征收更多的税。因此,拥有更多资产的政治家倾向于较小的政党。我用1995年至2014年间所有上市政治家的数据集来估计我的土耳其模型。我发现,右翼政党积累俱乐部物品比产生租金更容易,这导致了更强的政党控制。反事实练习为不同政治制度下政党规模分布的差异提供了一种新颖的解释。
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引用次数: 1
シャープレイ・シュービック投票力指数に基づく政党の最適規模 (The Optimal Size of a Political Party Based on the Shapley-Shubik Power Index) 夏普丽·舒比克基于投票力指数的政党最优规模(The Optimal Size of a Political Party Based on The Shapley-Shubik)power index)
Pub Date : 2019-10-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3466332
Yuuki Maruyama
Japanese Abstract: 議会における政党のシャープレイ・シュービック投票力指数(SSPI)を、その党へ投票した国民の人数で割った値を、一人当たりシャープレイ・シュービック投票力指数(SSPIPP)と定義する。その党に投票した人にとってSSPIPPは、自分が持つ政治への影響力の大きさとみなせる。今回の理論において、SSPIPPを最大化する政党の最適規模を算出し、可決により多くの賛成票を要求する議会ほどこの最適規模のサイズが低下することを証明する。また、この分析に基づき、可決にsupermajorityの賛成を必要とする国は小党分立状態が固定化しやすいことが示唆される。

English Abstract: I define Shapley-Shubik Power Index per Person (SSPIPP) as the ratio of a political party's Shapley-Shubik Power Index in a parliament to the number of people who voted for the party. SSPIPP can be regarded as the political power each of them has. I calculate the optimal size of a political party that maximizes SSPIPP, and it shows that the more approval votes a parliament requires to pass bills, the smaller the optimal party size becomes. It also shows that in countries that require supermajority approval vote to pass bills, party system fragmentation tends to become permanent.
如何abstract:将议会中政党的夏普夏普投票能力指数(SSPI)除以投票给该党的国民人数,得到的值被定义为人均夏普夏普投票能力指数(SSPIPP)。对投了那个党的人来说,SSPIPP是对自己政治的巨大影响力。在这个理论中,我们计算了政党的最优规模以使SSPIPP最大化,证明了要求更多赞成票通过的议会的最优规模的大小越小。根据这一分析,需要supermajority的赞成才能通过的国家更容易形成小党分立的局面。english abstract:I define shaply - shubik Power Index per Person (SSPIPP) as the ratio of a political party'sshaply - shubik Power Index in a parliament to the number of people who voted for the party. SSPIPPcan be regarded as the political power each of them has. I calculate the optimal size of a politicalparty that maximizes SSPIPP,and it shows that the more approval votes a parliament requires to pass bills,the smaller the optimal party size becomes. It also shows that in countries that requiresupermajority approval vote to pass bills, party system fragmentation tends to become permanent。
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引用次数: 0
Social Trust and Electoral Populism: Explaining the Quality of Government 社会信任与选举民粹主义:政府质量的解释
Pub Date : 2019-09-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3460914
Philip Keefer, Carlos Scartascini, Razvan Vlaicu
Voters would be better off if they removed politicians offering low-quality government by pursuing populist policies and re-elected those who improved government quality with sustainable policies. In many political contexts, including those with free and fair elections, voters do the opposite. Low social trust can account for this paradox: voters must act collectively to shape political incentives, but low trust among voters is an obstacle to collective action. If every voter believes that fellow voters will accept particularistic benefits from poorly performing governments that keep them from voting against those governments, no voter has an incentive to select politicians who promise high-quality government. By the same logic, low social trust prevents voters from sanctioning politicians who renege on their promises. Frequent reneging on campaign promises, in turn, leads voters to hold low political trust. Low quality government, and in particular populism, emerge as optimal electoral strategies of political candidates in this environment. We analyze new survey data from 5,800 respondents in seven Latin American countries that provides support for a novel argument about populism and the quality of government: voters who express low trust are significantly more likely to prefer populist policies that reflect a low quality of government.
如果通过民粹主义政策,让那些提供低质量政府的政治家下台,让那些通过可持续政策提高政府质量的人重新当选,选民们的生活将会更好。在许多政治环境中,包括那些自由公正的选举,选民的做法恰恰相反。低社会信任度可以解释这一悖论:选民必须集体行动以形成政治激励,但选民之间的低信任度是集体行动的障碍。如果每个选民都相信其他选民会从表现不佳的政府那里接受特殊利益,从而使他们不会投票反对这些政府,那么选民就没有动力选择承诺高质量政府的政治家。按照同样的逻辑,低社会信任度会阻止选民支持那些食言的政客。经常违背竞选承诺,反过来又导致选民对政治信任度较低。在这种环境下,低质量的政府,特别是民粹主义,成为政治候选人的最佳选举策略。我们分析了来自七个拉丁美洲国家的5800名受访者的新调查数据,这些数据为民粹主义和政府质量的新论点提供了支持:表现出低信任度的选民更有可能倾向于反映低政府质量的民粹主义政策。
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引用次数: 4
An Experiment in Candidate Selection 候选人选择的实验
Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/w26160
K. Casey, A. B. Kamara, N. Meriggi
Are ordinary citizens or political party leaders better positioned to select candidates? While the American primary system lets citizens choose, most democracies rely instead on party officials to appoint or nominate candidates. The consequences of these distinct design choices are unclear: while officials are often better informed about candidate qualifications, they may value traits, like party loyalty or willingness to pay for the nomination, at odds with identifying the best performer. We partnered with both major political parties in Sierra Leone to experimentally vary how much say voters have in selecting Parliamentary candidates. Estimates suggest that more democratic procedures increase the likelihood that parties select voters’ most preferred candidates and favor candidates with stronger records of public goods provision. (JEL D72, H41, O17)
是普通公民还是政党领导人更有资格选择候选人?虽然美国的初选制度让公民选择,但大多数民主国家依靠政党官员任命或提名候选人。这些截然不同的设计选择的后果尚不清楚:虽然官员们通常更了解候选人的资格,但他们可能会看重一些特征,比如对政党的忠诚或为提名付费的意愿,这与确定表现最好的人不一致。我们与塞拉利昂的两个主要政党合作,实验性地改变选民在选择议会候选人时的发言权。估计表明,更民主的程序增加了政党选择选民最喜欢的候选人的可能性,并倾向于在公共产品提供方面有更强记录的候选人。(jel 72, h41, o17)
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引用次数: 15
Double Implementation without No-Veto-Power 没有否决权的双重执行
Pub Date : 2019-07-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3423931
Makoto Hagiwara
Abstract We consider the implementation problem with at least three agents. We study double implementability of social choice correspondences in Nash equilibria and undominated Nash equilibria. We prove that “DZ-invariance,” “weak no-veto-power,” and “unanimity” together are sufficient for double implementability. If there is at least one partially honest agent in the sense of Dutta and Sen (2012) , then weak no-veto-power and unanimity together are sufficient for double implementability. If there are at least two partially honest agents, then unanimity is sufficient for double implementability. In addition, we show that if there is at least one partially honest agent and unanimity is satisfied, then “LY-condition” is necessary and sufficient for double implementability. From these results, we obtain several positive corollaries.
摘要我们考虑至少有三个代理的实现问题。研究了纳什均衡和非支配纳什均衡中社会选择对应的双重可实现性。我们证明了“dz -不变性”、“弱无否决权”和“一致性”一起是双重可实现性的充分条件。如果至少有一个Dutta和Sen(2012)意义上的部分诚实的代理人,那么弱的无否决权和一致一致就足以实现双重可执行性。如果存在至少两个部分诚实的代理,则一致度足以实现双重可执行性。此外,我们还证明了如果存在至少一个部分诚实的代理并且一致性被满足,那么“ly条件”是双重可实现的充分必要条件。从这些结果中,我们得到了几个肯定的推论。
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引用次数: 1
Economic Distress and Support for Radical Right Parties - Evidence from Sweden 经济困境和对激进右翼政党的支持——来自瑞典的证据
Pub Date : 2019-07-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3160480
Sirus H. Dehdari
This paper studies the effects of economic distress on support for radical right parties. Using Swedish election data, I show that layoff notices among low-skilled native-born workers account for 31 percent of the increased vote share for the Swedish radical right party the Sweden Democrats. The effect of layoff notices on support for the Sweden Democrats is larger in areas with a high share of low-skilled immigrants, and in areas with a low share of high-skilled immigrants. These findings are in line with theories suggesting that voters attribute their impaired economic status to immigration, due to labor market concerns. In addition, I use individual-level survey data to show that self-reported unemployment risk is positively associated with voting for the Sweden Democrats among low-skilled respondents while the opposite is true for high-skilled respondents, echoing the aggregate-level findings.
本文研究了经济困境对极右翼政党支持率的影响。我利用瑞典的选举数据表明,在瑞典激进右翼政党瑞典民主党(Sweden Democrats)增加的选票份额中,低技能本土出生工人的裁员通知占了31%。裁员通知对瑞典民主党支持率的影响,在低技能移民比例高的地区和高技能移民比例低的地区更大。这些发现与一些理论相一致,这些理论认为,选民出于对劳动力市场的担忧,将自己的经济地位受损归咎于移民。此外,我使用个人层面的调查数据来显示,自我报告的失业风险与低技能受访者对瑞典民主党的投票呈正相关,而高技能受访者则相反,与总体水平的发现相呼应。
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引用次数: 30
Proxy Advisory Firms: The Economics of Selling Information to Voters
Pub Date : 2019-05-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2757597
A. Malenko, Nadya Malenko
We analyze how proxy advisors, which sell voting recommendations to shareholders, affect corporate decision‐making. If the quality of the advisor's information is low, there is overreliance on its recommendations and insufficient private information production. In contrast, if the advisor's information is precise, it may be underused because the advisor rations its recommendations to maximize profits. Overall, the advisor's presence leads to more informative voting only if its information is sufficiently precise. We evaluate several proposals on regulating proxy advisors and show that some suggested policies, such as reducing proxy advisors' market power or decreasing litigation pressure, can have negative effects.
我们分析了向股东出售投票建议的代理顾问如何影响公司决策。如果顾问的信息质量较低,则存在对其建议的过度依赖和私人信息生产不足的情况。相反,如果顾问的信息是精确的,那么它可能没有得到充分利用,因为顾问会分配其建议以实现利润最大化。总的来说,只有当顾问的信息足够精确时,顾问的存在才会导致更有信息的投票。我们评估了一些关于监管代理顾问的建议,并表明一些建议的政策,如减少代理顾问的市场力量或减少诉讼压力,可能会产生负面影响。
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引用次数: 61
The Economic Analysis of Populism. A Selective Review of the Literature 民粹主义的经济分析。文献的选择性回顾
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3421752
Emilio Ocampo
Economic analysis is essential to the understanding of the rise and fall of populism. The conceptual and analytical framework of economics to the study of populism is still in its infancy, but great advances have been made in recent years. This paper reviews some key contributions behind this progress. When analyzing populism, economists face two methodological hurdles: lack of consensus and clarity about its definition and reconciling the populist vote with voter rationality. The former has plagued sociologists and political scientists for decades. As to the latter, it raises a conundrum: if populist policies are detrimental to economic growth, as most economists agree, the vote for a populist candidate suggests some irrationality or inefficiency in the political markets. But accepting that individuals are irrational when making political decisions, would imply that they are irrational when making economic decisions unless, of course, there is something fundamentally different about political markets. The works reviewed in this paper propose alternative approaches to address these issues. The most promising line of research in the economic analysis of populism incorporates and expands concepts developed by academics in other social sciences such as political theory, sociology, history and social psychology.
经济分析对于理解民粹主义的兴衰至关重要。经济学对民粹主义研究的概念和分析框架仍处于起步阶段,但近年来取得了很大进展。本文回顾了这一进展背后的一些关键贡献。在分析民粹主义时,经济学家面临两个方法上的障碍:对民粹主义的定义缺乏共识和清晰度,以及将民粹主义投票与选民理性相调和。前者几十年来一直困扰着社会学家和政治学家。至于后者,它提出了一个难题:如果民粹主义政策对经济增长有害,就像大多数经济学家认为的那样,那么投票给民粹主义候选人就意味着政治市场存在某种非理性或低效率。但是,承认个人在做政治决策时是非理性的,就意味着他们在做经济决策时也是非理性的,当然,除非政治市场有一些根本不同的东西。本文回顾的工作提出了解决这些问题的替代方法。在民粹主义的经济分析中,最有前途的研究方向融合并扩展了政治理论、社会学、历史学和社会心理学等其他社会科学领域的学者所开发的概念。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking
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