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Antidumping Laws Should Be Consigned to the History Books 反倾销法应该被载入史册
Pub Date : 2016-10-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2861270
Robert W. McGee, Yeomin Yoon
Antidumping laws have existed in some form since the early twentieth century. Ostensibly aimed at protecting domestic producers from unfair trade practices, they have frequently been used as weapons of protectionism even when dumping has not occurred. When this happens, some special interest group gains at the expense of the general public. Studies have found that antidumping laws result in a negative-sum game, since the losses exceed the gains, an outcome that violates utilitarian ethical principles. Antidumping laws also violate property and contract rights, since they prevent consenting adults from trading the property they have for the property they want. This paper begins with a review of the theory and practice of antidumping laws, then proceeds to apply ethical principles to determine whether individuals who launch antidumping investigations are acting ethically and concludes that President Barack Obama “needs to be bold on trade” by starting out with correcting the popular view that “dumping” is bad and those who dump should be penalized. Frederic Bastiat pointed out the fallacy of this view in 1845, yet the view is not only still with many American politicians but widely believed to be true among U.S. domestic manufacturers. President Obama should proclaim the following: In a free enterprise economic system, domestic producers have no inherent claim on the funds of consumers. The only ethical way of obtaining consumer funds is through voluntary trade. Using the force of government to obtain the funds (by prohibiting foreign suppliers from competing) puts domestic producers in the role of the aggressor, and in fact makes consumers the real victims. That is exactly what happens when a domestic producer appeals to the government to request an anti-dumping investigation against some foreign producer that is merely taking away business. Therefore, all anti-dumping laws and policies should be abrogated to promote freer trade. A bibliography containing links to more than 100 trade articles is also included.
自20世纪初以来,反倾销法就以某种形式存在。它们表面上是为了保护国内生产者免受不公平贸易行为的伤害,但却经常被用作保护主义的武器,即使倾销并未发生。当这种情况发生时,一些特殊利益集团以牺牲公众利益为代价获利。研究发现,反倾销法律导致了一场负和游戏,因为损失大于收益,这一结果违反了功利主义的伦理原则。反倾销法还侵犯了财产权和契约权,因为它们阻止成年人用自己拥有的财产交换自己想要的财产。本文首先回顾了反倾销法的理论和实践,然后运用道德原则来确定发起反倾销调查的个人是否具有道德行为,并得出结论,奥巴马总统“需要在贸易上大胆”,首先纠正“倾销”是不好的,倾销者应该受到惩罚的流行观点。弗雷德里克·巴斯夏(Frederic Bastiat)在1845年指出了这种观点的谬误,但这种观点不仅在许多美国政治家中仍然存在,而且在美国国内制造商中被广泛认为是正确的。奥巴马总统应该宣布:在自由企业经济体制下,国内生产者对消费者的资金没有内在的要求。获得消费者资金的唯一合乎道德的方式是自愿交易。利用政府的力量(通过禁止外国供应商参与竞争)来获得资金,使国内生产商成为侵略者,实际上使消费者成为真正的受害者。当一家国内生产商请求政府对一些外国生产商发起反倾销调查时,这种情况就会发生。因此,所有反倾销法律和政策都应该废除,以促进更自由的贸易。此外,还提供了100多篇贸易文章链接的参考书目。
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引用次数: 13
Judgement and Ranking: Living with Hidden Bias 判断和排名:隐藏偏见的生活
Pub Date : 2016-09-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2844486
António M. Osório C.
The complexity and subjectivity of the judgement task conceals the existence of biases that undermines the quality of the process. This paper presents a weighted aggregation function that attempts to reduce the influence of biased judgements on the final score. We also discuss a set of desirable properties. The proposed weighted aggregation function is able to correct the "nationalism bias" found by Emerson et al. (2009) in the 2000 Olympic Games diving competition and suggest the possibility of a reputation bias. Our results can be applied to judgement sports and other activities that require the aggregation of several personal evaluations.
判断任务的复杂性和主观性掩盖了偏见的存在,从而破坏了过程的质量。本文提出了一个加权聚合函数,试图减少偏见判断对最终分数的影响。我们还讨论了一组理想的性质。提出的加权聚合函数能够纠正Emerson等人(2009)在2000年奥运会跳水比赛中发现的“民族主义偏见”,并提出声誉偏见的可能性。我们的结果可以应用于判断体育和其他需要几个个人评估的活动。
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引用次数: 0
Governance of Electoral Policy in Russia: New Political Parties and Institutional Limits for Representation 俄罗斯选举政策的治理:新政党和代表制的制度限制
Pub Date : 2016-09-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2940703
L. Smorgunov
After the contentious electoral policy 2011-12 in Russia the new reform of party's legislation was conducted, that led to an increase in the number of political parties. Currently, 77 officially registered political parties are in the country. However, the regional legislative elections in 2012-2015 demonstrate the limited representation of the new party-political interests. When a relatively large electoral volatility party system is still limited pluralistic (mostly system of "4 2"), and dominant mixed electoral system in regions does not allow small parties hold their deputies in the regional parliaments. The study of regional elections of 2012-2015 shows that the main reason for the limited representation is exclusive institutional design of electoral politics. This institutional design at the elections of the State Duma deputies in 2016, appears to be the main reason for the formation of "pluralism without representation" at the federal level.
在2011- 2012年颇具争议的选举政策之后,俄罗斯进行了新的政党立法改革,导致政党数量的增加。目前,该国有77个正式登记的政党。然而,2012-2015年的地区立法选举表明,新政党政治利益的代表性有限。当选举波动较大时,政党制度的多元性仍然有限(多为“四二”制),而地区内占主导地位的混合选举制度不允许小政党在地区议会中占有代表席位。对2012-2015年地方选举的研究表明,选举政治的排他性制度设计是导致代表权有限的主要原因。这种在2016年国家杜马议员选举中的制度设计,似乎是在联邦一级形成“无代表制的多元化”的主要原因。
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引用次数: 0
Fiscal Model Forecast for the 2016 Presidential Election 2016年总统大选财政模型预测
Pub Date : 2016-08-11 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2821878
Alfred G. Cuzán
The Fiscal Model of Presidential Elections, as modified after its failure to forecast President Obama’s reelection in 2012, accounts for all but three out of sample retrodictions since 1916. This year, its point forecast has the incumbent Democrats losing with 48.2% of the two-party vote.
总统选举的财政模型(Fiscal Model of Presidential Elections)在预测奥巴马总统2012年的连任失败后进行了修改,自1916年以来,除了三次之外,其他所有的样本预测都是正确的。今年,该机构预测现任民主党将以48.2%的两党选票落败。
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引用次数: 1
Choosing from the Menu of Manipulation Explaining Incumbents’ Choices of Electoral Manipulation Tactics 从操纵菜单中选择:解释现任者对选举操纵策略的选择
Pub Date : 2016-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2788475
Carolien van Ham, S. Lindberg
This research project was supported by the Australian Research Council DECRA funding scheme to Dr. Carolien van Ham, project number RG142911, project name DE150101692, and by Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, Grant M13-0559:1, PI: Staffan I. Lindberg, V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Sweden; by Swedish Research Council, PI: Staffan I. Lindberg, V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Sweden and Jan Teorell, Department of Political Science, Lund University, Sweden; by Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation to Wallenberg Academy Fellow Staffan I. Lindberg, V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Sweden. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the Varieties of Democracy Annual Conference, Gothenburg, 26-28 May 2015; and the Annual Conference of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 3-6 September 2015. We thank Jennifer Gandhi, Nancy Bermeo, Adam Glynn, Matthew Wilson, Staffan Darnolf, Gerald Munck, John Gerring, and other participants for their highly valuable and insightful comments. Any remaining errors are of course, our own.
本研究项目由澳大利亚研究理事会DECRA资助Carolien van Ham博士,项目编号RG142911,项目名称DE150101692, Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, Grant M13-0559:1, PI: Staffan I. Lindberg,瑞典哥德堡大学V-Dem研究所;瑞典研究理事会,PI:瑞典哥德堡大学V-Dem研究所Staffan I. Lindberg和瑞典隆德大学政治学系Jan Teorell;由克努特和爱丽丝·瓦伦堡基金会赠送给瑞典哥德堡大学V-Dem研究所瓦伦堡学院研究员斯塔凡·林德伯格。本文的早期版本已于2015年5月26日至28日在哥德堡举行的民主多样性年会上发表;美国政治科学协会年会,旧金山,2015年9月3-6日。我们感谢Jennifer Gandhi、Nancy Bermeo、Adam Glynn、Matthew Wilson、Staffan Darnolf、Gerald Munck、John Gerring和其他与会者非常宝贵和富有洞察力的评论。剩下的错误当然是我们自己的。
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引用次数: 11
The Elusive Quest for Convergence 趋同的难以捉摸的追求
Pub Date : 2016-04-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2262600
Anthony Fowler, Andrew B. Hall
Does American political representation work as predicted by theory? On average, political candidates diverge considerably in their ideological positioning, but do they diverge less on issues of particular salience to their local constituents? We combine data on congressional roll call votes, electoral outcomes, district demographics, and substantive information about bills to search for convergence in the places we would most expect to find it. Despite the predictions of prominent models, legislators diverge just as much even when their constituents have strong interests in a particular policy area. These results provide new insights into policymaking and political representation, and they help distinguish between different theoretical explanations for why candidate positions diverge.
美国的政治代表制是否如理论所预测的那样有效?平均而言,政治候选人在意识形态定位上存在相当大的分歧,但他们在对当地选民特别重要的问题上分歧是否较小?我们将国会唱名投票、选举结果、地区人口统计数据和有关法案的实质性信息结合起来,在我们最希望找到趋同的地方寻找趋同。尽管著名的模型做出了预测,但即使选民对某一特定政策领域有强烈的兴趣,立法者的分歧也一样大。这些结果为政策制定和政治代表提供了新的见解,并有助于区分候选人立场分歧的不同理论解释。
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引用次数: 37
The Impact of the Elderly on Inflation Rates in Developed Countries 发达国家老年人对通货膨胀率的影响
Pub Date : 2016-03-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2756584
Tim Vlandas
What explains the cross-national variation in inflation rates in developed countries? Previous literature has emphasised the role of ideas and institutions, and to a lesser extent interest groups, while leaving the role of electoral politics comparatively unexplored. This paper seeks to redress this neglect by focusing on one case where electoral politics matters for inflation: the share of the population above 65 years old in a country. I argue that countries with a larger share of elderly have lower inflation because older people are both more inflation averse and politically powerful, forcing governments to pursue lower inflation. I test my argument in three steps. First, logistic regression analysis of survey data confirms older people are more inflation averse. Second, panel data regression analysis of party manifesto data reveals that European countries with more old people have more economically orthodox political parties. Third, time series cross-section regression analyses demonstrate that the share of the elderly is negatively correlated with inflation in both a sample of 21 advanced OECD economies and a larger sample of 175 countries. Ageing may therefore push governments to adopt a low inflation regime.
如何解释发达国家通货膨胀率的跨国差异?先前的文献强调了思想和制度的作用,在较小程度上强调了利益集团的作用,而对选举政治的作用则相对较少探索。本文试图通过关注选举政治对通货膨胀有影响的一个案例来纠正这种忽视:一个国家65岁以上人口的比例。我认为,老年人比例较高的国家通货膨胀率较低,因为老年人更厌恶通货膨胀,在政治上也更强大,这迫使政府追求更低的通货膨胀。我用三个步骤来验证我的论点。首先,对调查数据进行逻辑回归分析,证实老年人对通胀的厌恶程度更高。其次,对政党宣言数据进行面板数据回归分析,发现老年人越多的欧洲国家,其政党在经济上越正统。第三,时间序列横截面回归分析表明,在21个发达经合组织经济体的样本和175个国家的更大样本中,老年人的比例与通货膨胀呈负相关。因此,老龄化可能会促使政府采取低通胀政策。
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引用次数: 25
The Self-Referential Reproduction of Élites in Transformational Political System 转型政治体系中Élites的自我参照再生产
Pub Date : 2016-03-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2755491
N. Ponomarenko
The ruling elite is one of the main actors of the political process. The leading position of the political elite in societies in transformation allows this actor to determine the amount of possible changes in the system. Analysis of the characteristics of the reproduction of the ruling elite in transforming conditions allows to diagnose the amount and direction of change in the social system. The study analyzes the specific features of reproduction of the political elite as a self-referential system.
统治精英是政治进程的主要参与者之一。在转型社会中,政治精英的领导地位使这一行动者能够决定制度中可能发生的变化的数量。分析统治精英在转型条件下再生产的特征,有助于诊断社会制度变化的数量和方向。本研究分析了政治精英再生产作为一种自我参照系统的具体特征。
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引用次数: 0
International Alignment between Interests and Ideology: The Case of China's Partnership Diplomacy 利益与意识形态的国际契合:以中国伙伴外交为例
Pub Date : 2016-03-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2786635
Georg Strüver
This paper examines the determinants of alignment in bilateral partnerships. While it was impossible to think about international cooperation without referring to the term “alliances” during much of the Cold War period, strategic partnerships have taken a central place in many states’ diplomatic tool kits over the past two decades. This paper sheds light on such international alignment decisions by examining the case of China’s partnership diplomacy in the period from 1990 to 2014. Theoretically, the analysis draws on scholarly insights about alliance formation and international cooperation to formulate two broad assumptions about partner choice, which are based on interest‐driven and ideology‐based rationales of alignment. Binary regression estimations highlight the importance of economic interests in explaining partnership onset. In contrast to common arguments about alliance formation, partnerships seem to be less driven by shared domestic ideologies. In fact, bilateral partnerships help bridge ideological gaps, enabling the partners’ pursuit of economic gains and diplomatic preferences, at least in the case of China.
本文探讨了双边伙伴关系中结盟的决定因素。虽然在冷战时期的大部分时间里,不提到“联盟”一词就不可能想到国际合作,但在过去20年里,战略伙伴关系在许多国家的外交工具箱中占据了中心位置。本文以1990年至2014年中国的伙伴外交为例,揭示了这种国际结盟决策。从理论上讲,该分析借鉴了关于联盟形成和国际合作的学术见解,形成了关于伙伴选择的两个广泛假设,这两个假设基于利益驱动和基于意识形态的结盟原理。二元回归估计强调了经济利益在解释伙伴关系开始时的重要性。与关于联盟形成的常见争论相反,伙伴关系似乎较少受到共同的国内意识形态的驱动。事实上,双边伙伴关系有助于弥合意识形态的鸿沟,使合作伙伴能够追求经济利益和外交偏好,至少在中国的情况下是这样。
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引用次数: 15
Computing the Power Distribution in the IMF 计算国际货币基金组织的权力分配
Pub Date : 2016-03-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2742118
Sascha Kurz
The International Monetary Fund is one of the largest international organizations using a weighted voting system. The weights of its 188 members are determined by a fixed amount of basic votes plus some extra votes for so-called Special Drawing Rights (SDR). On January 26, 2016, the conditions for the SDRs were increased at the 14th General Quota Review, which drastically changed the corresponding voting weights. However, since the share of voting weights in general is not equal to the influence, of a committee member on the committees overall decision, so-called power indices were introduced. So far the power distribution of the IMF was only computed by either approximation procedures or smaller games than then entire Board of Governors consisting of 188 members. We improve existing algorithms, based on dynamic programming, for the computation of power indices and provide the exact results for the IMF Board of Governors before and after the increase of voting weights. Tuned low-level details of the algorithms allow the repeated routine with sparse computational resources and can of course be applied to other large voting bodies. It turned out that the Banzhaf power shares are rather sensitive to changes of the quota.
国际货币基金组织是使用加权投票制度的最大国际组织之一。其188个成员国的权重由固定数量的基本投票权加上所谓特别提款权(SDR)的一些额外投票权决定。2016年1月26日,在第14次份额总检查中,特别提款权的条件有所增加,相应的投票权权重发生了巨大变化。但是,由于一般的投票权重并不等于委员会成员对委员会整体决策的影响力,因此引入了所谓的权力指数。到目前为止,国际货币基金组织的权力分配只是通过近似程序或比当时由188个成员组成的整个理事会更小的游戏来计算的。我们改进了现有的基于动态规划的权力指数计算算法,并向IMF理事会提供投票权权重增加前后的准确结果。优化算法的低级细节允许使用稀疏计算资源重复例程,当然可以应用于其他大型投票机构。事实证明,班扎夫电力份额对配额的变化相当敏感。
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引用次数: 8
期刊
ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking
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