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Towards predictive simulation of wildfire spread at regional scale using ensemble-based data assimilation to correct the fire front position 基于集合数据同化校正火锋位置的区域尺度野火蔓延预测模拟研究
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.3801/iafss.fss.11-1443
M. Rochoux, C. Emery, S. Ricci, B. Cuenot, A. Trouvé
The objective of this study is to develop a prototype data-driven wildfire simulator capable of forecasting the fire spread dynamics. The prototype simulation capability features the following main components: a level-set-based fire propagation solver that adopts a regional scale viewpoint, treats wildfires as propagating fronts, and uses a description of the local rate of spread (ROS) of the fire as a function of vegetation properties and wind conditions based on Rothermel’s model; a series of observations of the fire front position; and a data assimilation algorithm based on an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). Members of the EnKF ensemble are generated through variations in estimates of the fire ignition location and/or variations in the ROS model parameters; the data assimilation algorithm also features a state estimation approach in which the estimation targets (the control variables) are the two-dimensional coordinates of the discretized fire front. The prototype simulation capability is first evaluated in a series of verification tests using syntheticallygenerated observations; the tests include representative cases with spatially-varying vegetation properties and temporally-varying wind conditions. The prototype simulation capability is then evaluated in a validation test corresponding to a controlled grassland fire experiment. The results indicate that data-driven simulations are capable of correcting inaccurate predictions of the fire front position and of subsequently providing an optimized forecast of the wildfire behavior.
本研究的目的是开发一个能够预测火灾蔓延动态的数据驱动野火模拟器原型。原型模拟能力的主要组成部分如下:基于水平集的火灾传播求解器,采用区域尺度的观点,将野火视为传播前沿,并基于Rothermel模型将火灾的局部传播速率(ROS)描述为植被特性和风力条件的函数;对火力前沿位置的一系列观察;以及基于集成卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)的数据同化算法。EnKF集合的成员是通过对着火位置的估计变化和/或ROS模型参数的变化产生的;数据同化算法还具有状态估计方法,其中估计目标(控制变量)是离散火线的二维坐标。原型模拟能力首先在使用合成生成的观测结果的一系列验证测试中进行评估;试验包括具有空间变化的植被特性和时间变化的风条件的代表性案例。然后在与控制草原火灾实验相对应的验证测试中评估原型的模拟能力。结果表明,数据驱动的模拟能够纠正对火锋位置的不准确预测,并随后提供对野火行为的优化预测。
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引用次数: 16
Real Fire Test on Concrete Columns and Post-tensioned Slabs 混凝土柱和后张拉板的实火试验
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.3801/iafss.fss.11-558
I. Bennetts, W. South
An enclosure fire test was conducted incorporating high strength reinforced concrete columns and normal strength post-tensioned floor slabs. The slabs formed part of the roof whilst the columns within the enclosure were unloaded except for compressive stresses induced by the prestressing bar located at the centre of each of the columns. The columns and slabs were made from commonly available but markedly different Australian aggregates. Some of the columns incorporated 6mm monofilament polypropylene (pp) fibres introduced into the concrete mix at a concentration of 1kg per m 3 of concrete. With the exception of columns with pp fibres, spalling commenced within 10 minutes of the start of the test with all columns experiencing extreme spalling. The test was terminated at 68 minutes due to failure of one of the posttensioned slabs. Minimal spalling was obtained for slabs constructed from basaltic aggregate. The implications of the findings are considered with respect to the design of reinforced concrete structures.
采用高强度钢筋混凝土柱和标准强度后张拉楼板进行了围护结构防火试验。楼板构成了屋顶的一部分,而围墙内的柱子除了由位于每根柱子中心的预应力条引起的压应力外,都被卸载了。柱和板由常见但明显不同的澳大利亚骨料制成。一些柱子在混凝土混合物中加入了6毫米单丝聚丙烯(pp)纤维,浓度为每立方米1千克。除pp纤维柱外,在测试开始后10分钟内开始剥落,所有柱都经历了严重的剥落。由于其中一块后张板的失效,测试在68分钟时终止。由玄武岩骨料建造的板获得了最小的剥落。研究结果的含义被认为是关于钢筋混凝土结构的设计。
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引用次数: 1
A New Method for Quantifying Fire Growth Rates Using Statistical and Empirical Data – Applied to Determine the Effect of Arson 一种用统计和经验数据量化火灾增长率的新方法——用于确定纵火的影响
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.3801/iafss.fss.11-517
M. Nilsson, N. Johansson, P. Hees
When designing fire safety of buildings the fire growth rate is an important parameter, in large affecting the overall fire safety level within the building. Generally, a deterministic fire growth rate is used raising the question whether the resulting design arrives at a reasonable level of safety. A method was developed to obtain distributions of fire growth rates in specific building types. The new method uses data from two sources: fire statistics, and fire growth rates on single objects obtained by calorimetry experiments. In addition, the method was demonstrated by a case study investigating whether the overall fire growth rate is faster for commercial buildings if arson fires are included than if they are not. The results show that there is a considerably higher fire growth rate when arson fires are accounted for, e.g. designing for a fast fire growth rate of 0.047 kW/s2 covers 97% of accidental fires (arson excluded) but only 91% of all fires (arson included). The results indicate that there is a need to account for arson fires when designing buildings when the probability of arson is high. The developed method provides means to account for arson in fire safety engineering, and to further quantify the achieved fire safety level.
在进行建筑消防安全设计时,火灾增长率是一个重要的参数,在很大程度上影响着建筑内部的整体消防安全水平。一般来说,一个确定的火灾增长率被用来提出一个问题,即最终的设计是否达到一个合理的安全水平。提出了一种计算特定建筑类型中火灾增长率分布的方法。新方法使用了两个来源的数据:火灾统计数据和通过量热实验获得的单个物体的火灾增长率。此外,该方法还通过一个案例研究进行了验证,该案例研究了如果包括纵火火灾,商业建筑的总体火灾增长速度是否比不包括纵火火灾的情况更快。结果表明,当考虑人为纵火时,火灾增长率相当高,例如设计为0.047 kW/s2的快速火灾增长率覆盖了97%的意外火灾(不包括纵火),但仅覆盖了91%的所有火灾(包括纵火)。研究结果表明,当火灾发生的概率较高时,在设计建筑物时有必要考虑纵火火灾。该方法为消防安全工程中对纵火的考虑提供了手段,并进一步量化了已达到的消防安全水平。
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引用次数: 12
Novel Testing to Study the Performance of Intumescent Coatings under Non-Standard Heating Regimes 研究非标准加热条件下膨胀涂层性能的新方法
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.3801/IAFSS.FSS.11-652
Angus Elliott, A. Temple, C. Maluk, L. Bisby
Intumescent coatings (also called reactive coatings) are widely used to protect structural steel from fire. These thin coatings swell on heating to form a highly insulating char, protecting steel members and preventing them from reaching critical temperatures that could cause them to fail. As is the case for most structural materials and assemblies, intumescent coatings for use in buildings are typically developed and certified solely according to the standard cellulosic fire resistance test by exposure within a fire testing furnace. Reliance on furnace testing is expensive, non-representative of realistic fire conditions, and insufficiently versatile to gather detailed performance information on the response of reactive coatings under the full range of design fires which might be considered during a rational, performance-based design assessment. This paper presents a novel testing methodology for studying the performance of reactive coatings when subjected to non-standard heating regimes. The new approach is calibrated and validated using furnace test data, and is shown to offer considerable advantages over furnace testing in terms of reliability, repeatability, versatility, speed and cost. An investigation is then presented to study the effective variable thermal conductivity of a commercially available reactive coating when subjected to various timehistories of heat flux. It is shown that the heating rate and dry film thickness of the coating do not drastically affect the development of effective thermal conductivity with substrate temperature, leading to a proposal for a simplified method for specifying coating requirements and/or performing heat transfer design calculations when designing to non-standard heating regimes.
膨胀涂层(也称为活性涂层)广泛用于结构钢的防火保护。这些薄涂层在加热时膨胀,形成高度绝缘的炭,保护钢构件,防止它们达到可能导致它们失效的临界温度。与大多数结构材料和组件的情况一样,用于建筑物的膨胀涂层通常是根据标准的纤维素耐火测试,通过在防火测试炉中暴露来开发和认证的。依靠炉内测试是昂贵的,不具有实际火灾条件的代表性,而且在收集反应性涂层在全范围设计火灾下的详细性能信息方面也不够全面,这些信息可能在合理的、基于性能的设计评估中被考虑。本文提出了一种新的测试方法,用于研究反应性涂层在非标准加热条件下的性能。新方法使用炉内测试数据进行了校准和验证,并在可靠性、可重复性、多功能性、速度和成本方面比炉内测试具有相当大的优势。一项调查,然后提出了研究有效的可变导热系数的市售反应涂层时,受到不同的时间历史的热通量。研究表明,涂层的加热速率和干膜厚度不会显著影响基材温度下有效导热性的发展,因此提出了一种简化方法,用于指定涂层要求和/或在设计非标准加热制度时执行传热设计计算。
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引用次数: 26
A Model for Combustion of Firebrands of Various Shapes 不同形状燃烧弹的燃烧模型
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.3801/IAFSS.FSS.11-1353
H. Baum, A. Atreya
The lifetime of a firebrand before burning out controls the maximum distance a firebrand can travel to cause spotting. Thus, combustion of firebrands of various shapes and sizes and their burnout time during transport is studied. The analysis assumes “quasi-steady” burning. In the present context, “quasi-steady” means that the rate processes controlling the gas phase fuel consumption and energy release are much faster than the particle fuel depletion time or the gas phase transport times. The Reynolds number based on the overall particle dimension and velocity relative to the ambient flow is assumed to be small. The gas phase combustion processes are represented by the evolution of a mixture fraction variable. It is shown that the velocity field near the particle can be described by a potential flow whose functional form is determined by the mass conservation equation and that this flow satisfies the particle surface boundary conditions. Gas phase solutions are obtained for two-parameter family of firebrand shapes composed of oblate and prolate ellipsoids of revolution. Prolate ellipsoids range from a thin needle to a sphere and oblate ellipsoids range from a sphere to a thin disc. Thus, they cover all possible firebrand shapes. The ambient velocity field does not need to be aligned with the firebrand axis of symmetry, so that the composite velocity and mixture fraction fields are three-dimensional. While a variety of steady-state condensed phase models are compatible with this picture, results are first presented for an ablating solid describable by the Spalding B number. B-numbers representative of flaming combustion of wood firebrands and glowing combustion of remaining char are used. All quantities are calculated as a function of ellipsoidal aspect ratio, B number, and the Reynolds number. Surprisingly, it is found that the firebrand burnout time is shape independent. All possible shapes were considered by using oblate and prolate ellipsoids of different sizes and aspect ratios. The burnout time depends only on the firebrand mass under the assumptions used.
在燃尽前的火焰寿命控制着火焰能传播的最大距离。因此,研究了不同形状和大小的燃烧物在运输过程中的燃烧及其燃尽时间。该分析假定燃烧是“准稳定的”。在目前的情况下,“准稳定”意味着控制气相燃料消耗和能量释放的速率过程比颗粒燃料耗尽时间或气相输运时间快得多。假设基于整体颗粒尺寸和相对于周围流动的速度的雷诺数很小。气相燃烧过程由混合气分数变量的演化来表示。结果表明,质点附近的速度场可以用势流来描述,势流的函数形式由质量守恒方程决定,且势流满足质点表面边界条件。得到了由扁椭球和长椭球组成的两参数火焰形状族的气相解。长形椭球的范围从细针状到球形,扁形椭球的范围从球形到薄圆盘。因此,它们涵盖了所有可能的火种形状。环境速度场不需要与火焰对称轴对齐,因此复合速度场和混合分数场是三维的。虽然各种稳态凝聚相模型都与这幅图相容,但结果首先是由斯伯丁B数描述的烧蚀固体。b号代表燃烧燃烧的木柴和燃烧残余炭的发光燃烧。所有的量都是作为椭球长径比、B数和雷诺数的函数来计算的。令人惊讶的是,我们发现燃烧器的燃烬时间与形状无关。通过使用不同尺寸和纵横比的扁椭球和长椭球来考虑所有可能的形状。在假设条件下,燃尽时间仅与引燃物质量有关。
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引用次数: 11
Fire protective performance of intumescent paint and ablative elastomer used for high pressure hydrogen composite cylinder 高压氢复合气瓶用膨胀漆和烧蚀弹性体的防火性能
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.3801/iafss.fss.11-794
Dao D.-Q., T. Rogaume, J. Luche, F. Richard, L. B. Valencia, S. Ruban
The thermal degradation of epoxy resin/carbon fiber composites have been experimentally studied in ISO 5660 standard cone calorimeter. The influence of external heat fluxes on the reaction-to-fire properties of composite laminate is identified. Mass loss, time-to-ignition, specific mass loss rate, thermal response parameter and gasification heat were systematically measured and calculated. The four principal steps of the thermal degradation process of virgin composite are also analyzed and identified. In order to improve the reaction to fire of the composite for a safe hydrogen cylinder application, two insulating coatings (constituted by an intumescent paint or an ablative elastomer) have been applied on the exposure surface of composite. As a result, the thermal properties of composite (mass loss, time-to-ignition, SMLR peak amplitude and temperature at coating/composite interface) are improved significantly. Furthermore, the ablative elastomer represents a better fire protective performance than the intumescent paint one at low temperature. However, at high temperature conditions, the ablative layer is thermally broken and flaked away from the composite substrate, and so loses its protective performance. At low heat flux the intumescent paint shows slightly worse protective performance which becomes better than the ablative material at high heat flux conditions due to its very good bonding capacity to the composite surface.
用ISO 5660锥形量热计对环氧树脂/碳纤维复合材料的热降解进行了实验研究。确定了外热流密度对复合材料层合板反应性能的影响。系统地测量和计算了质量损失、点火时间、比质量损失率、热响应参数和气化热。分析并确定了原生复合材料热降解过程的四个主要步骤。为了提高氢气瓶安全应用中复合材料的防火性能,在复合材料的暴露表面涂上了两种绝缘涂层(由膨胀涂料或烧蚀弹性体组成)。结果表明,复合材料的热性能(质量损失、点火时间、SMLR峰值振幅和涂层/复合界面温度)得到了显著改善。此外,烧蚀弹性体在低温下的防火性能优于膨胀涂料。然而,在高温条件下,烧蚀层被热破坏并从复合基板上剥落,从而失去其保护性能。在低热流密度条件下,膨胀涂料的防护性能略差,但在高热流密度条件下,膨胀涂料与复合材料表面的结合能力较好,防护性能优于烧蚀材料。
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引用次数: 4
Prediction of Toxic Emissions from Chemical Fire and Explosion 化学火灾和爆炸有毒物质排放的预测
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.3801/iafss.fss.11-1457
N. Moussa, V. Devarakonda
The prediction of toxic emissions from industrial and warehouse fires and explosions involving reactive chemicals has eluded the hazard analysis community for quite some time. To address this issue, we developed a model called ADORA for the time evolution of toxic emissions and their dispersion in the atmosphere. At each time step, the conservation of mass, energy and momentum are solved while invoking thermochemical equilibrium or a constrained version thereof to determine the species composition in the cloud. During the initial stages of cloud evolution, the temperatures are usually high and thermochemical equilibrium applies. As the cloud cools down later due to air entrainment, the composition is governed by reaction kinetics. We use a computationally efficient approach called “constrained equilibrium” which is essentially an approximate way of accounting for temperature dependent reaction kinetics. In this approach, as air and moisture are entrained into the plume, the species concentrations are updated until the temperature decreases sufficiently to “freeze out” the toxic species of concern. The freeze-out temperatures for the toxic species of greatest concern are determined by examining the temperature dependent reaction kinetic rates. The temperatures below which the kinetics are too slow relative to cloud dynamics are selected as freeze out temperatures. This approach allows us to calculate as a function of time the cloud combustion rate, temperature, species composition, size, rise and travel distance downwind from the release location. Sample calculations for the detonation of explosives and for fires involving several reactive chemicals are given. For the former, the model predictions of major species such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and total non-methane hydrocarbons agree well with the limited available data. The model predicts the time dependent consumption of reactants and formation of reaction intermediates as well as stable end products. The concentration contours for toxic species such as hydrogen fluoride are presented and the trends discussed. The predictions of our model can be used to improve preparedness and emergency response planning in order to minimize the consequences of accidents involving reactive and energetic materials.
在相当长的一段时间里,危害分析界一直无法预测工业和仓库火灾以及涉及活性化学品的爆炸所产生的有毒排放物。为了解决这个问题,我们开发了一个名为ADORA的模型,用于有毒排放物的时间演变及其在大气中的扩散。在每个时间步,质量、能量和动量守恒被解决,同时调用热化学平衡或其约束版本来确定云中的物质组成。在云演化的初始阶段,温度通常很高,并且存在热化学平衡。当云由于空气夹带而冷却下来时,其组成由反应动力学决定。我们使用一种计算效率高的方法,称为“约束平衡”,本质上是一种近似的方法来计算温度依赖的反应动力学。在这种方法中,随着空气和水分被带入羽流,物种浓度不断更新,直到温度下降到足以“冻结”所关注的有毒物种。最受关注的有毒物质的冻结温度是通过检查与温度有关的反应动力学速率来确定的。选择动力学相对于云动力学太慢的温度作为冻结温度。这种方法使我们能够计算云燃烧速率、温度、物质组成、大小、上升和从释放位置顺风移动的距离作为时间的函数。给出了炸药爆炸和涉及几种反应性化学物质的火灾的计算示例。对于前者,模型对二氧化碳、一氧化碳、氮氧化物和总非甲烷碳氢化合物等主要物种的预测与有限的现有数据吻合得很好。该模型预测了反应物的时间依赖性消耗和反应中间体的形成以及稳定的最终产物。介绍了氟化氢等有毒物质的浓度曲线,并讨论了其变化趋势。我们模型的预测可用于改进准备和应急响应计划,以尽量减少涉及反应性和高能材料的事故的后果。
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引用次数: 2
Research Analysis of The Realistic Evacuation Behaviour from Tsunami and Fire in the aftermath of The Great East Japan Earthquake 2011 2011年东日本大地震后海啸和火灾中现实疏散行为研究分析
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.3801/iafss.fss.11-718
Y. Akizuki, A. Hokugo, Tomoaki Nishino
On March 11, 2011, a devastating tsunami caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake hit many towns in Tohoku area, and a lot of residents had to evacuate from tsunami and ensuing fire. Collecting and comprehending their evacuation behavior is crucial to provide useful information for future major earthquakes.. In this report, some actual track maps of escape routes from tsunami and fire based on our interviews are shown, and the characteristic of the realistic evacuation behavior is extracted. Moreover the large-scale surveys conducted by other institutions are summarized to justify our consideration.
2011年3月11日,东日本大地震引发的毁灭性海啸袭击了东北地区的许多城镇,许多居民不得不从海啸和随之而来的火灾中撤离。收集和理解它们的疏散行为对于为未来的大地震提供有用的信息至关重要。在本报告中,根据我们的采访,展示了一些海啸和火灾逃生路线的实际轨迹图,并提取了现实疏散行为的特征。此外,总结了其他机构进行的大规模调查,以证明我们的考虑是合理的。
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引用次数: 2
Revisiting the Compartment Fire 重访车厢火灾
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.3801/IAFSS.FSS.11-28
J. Torero, A. Majdalani, Cecilia Abecassis-Empis, Adam Cowlard
Understanding the relevant behaviour of fire in buildings is critical for the continued provision of fire safety solutions as infrastructure continually evolves. Traditionally, new and improved understanding has helped define more accurate classifications and correspondingly, better prescriptive solutions. Among all the different concepts emerging from research into fire behaviour, the "compartment fire" is probably the one that has most influenced the evolution of the built environment. Initially, compartmentalization was exploited as a means of reducing the rate of fire spread in buildings. Through the observations acquired in fires, it was concluded that reducing spread rates enabled safe egress and a more effective intervention by the fire service. Thus, different forms of compartmentalization permeated through most prescriptive codes. Once fire behaviour within a compartment was conceptualized on the basis of scientific principles, the "compartment fire" framework became a means to establish, under certain specific circumstances, temperatures and thermal loads imposed by a fire to a building. This resulted not only in improved codes but also in a scientifically based methodology for the assessment of structural performance. The last three decades have however seen an evolution of the built environment away from compartmentalization while the "compartment fire" framework has remained. It is therefore necessary to revisit the knowledge underpinning this seminal approach to initiate discussion of its continued relevance and applicability to an increasingly non-compartmentalised built environment. This paper, through a review of classic literature and the description of some recent experimentation, aims to inform and encourage such discussion.
随着基础设施的不断发展,了解建筑物中火灾的相关行为对于持续提供消防安全解决方案至关重要。传统上,新的和改进的理解有助于定义更准确的分类和相应的更好的说明性解决方案。在火灾行为研究中出现的所有不同概念中,“隔间火灾”可能是对建筑环境演变影响最大的一个。最初,分隔被用作降低建筑物内火势蔓延速度的一种手段。通过在火灾中获得的观察,得出的结论是,降低蔓延率可以使消防部门安全撤离并更有效地进行干预。因此,不同形式的划分贯穿于大多数说明性代码中。一旦在科学原理的基础上概念化了隔间内的火灾行为,“隔间火灾”框架就成为在某些特定情况下确定火灾对建筑物造成的温度和热负荷的一种手段。这不仅使规范得到改进,而且使结构性能评估的方法更加科学。然而,在过去的三十年里,建筑环境的演变远离了分隔,而“隔间火灾”框架仍然存在。因此,有必要重新审视支撑这一开创性方法的知识,以开始讨论其在日益非分区化的建筑环境中的持续相关性和适用性。本文通过对经典文献的回顾和对最近一些实验的描述,旨在为这种讨论提供信息和鼓励。
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引用次数: 55
Enclosure and Facade Fires: Physics and Applications 外壳和立面火灾:物理和应用
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.3801/iafss.fss.11-3
M. Delichatsios
Facade fires being a disastrous hazard for high rise building, as several historical and recent incidents have shown, have attracted the interests of numerous fire scientists, engineers and regulators. This work has as an objective to present issues in this area that are challenging and need further attention. It focuses on characterizing the flame height and heat fluxes from facade flames produced from under-ventilated enclosure fires on a facade that is not flammable. Such an investigation is an important consideration for practical applications as well as a prerequisite for examining fire spread on flammable facades and for designing a test for modern facade assemblies. The mass pyrolysis rates and burning of real fuels are discussed in under ventilated enclosures, rectangular or corridor like, for various openings presenting the current state and some critical issues. Facade flames are analyzed from experiments using gaseous burners to have control on the fuel supply rate by introducing physical length scales for the opening geometries to model flame heights and heat fluxes. An important parameter for the facade flames is the excess heat release rate of the fuel burning outside the enclosure. Finally, applications for facade flames with sidewalls and facade flames from two openings are presented.
外墙火灾对高层建筑来说是一种灾难性的危险,正如历史上和最近发生的几起事件所表明的那样,它吸引了众多消防科学家、工程师和监管机构的兴趣。这项工作的目的是提出该领域具有挑战性和需要进一步关注的问题。它的重点是表征火焰的高度和热流从立面火焰产生的通风不足的围场火灾在一个不可燃的立面。这样的调查是实际应用的重要考虑因素,也是检查易燃立面上的火势蔓延和设计现代立面组件测试的先决条件。讨论了实际燃料的质量热解速率和燃烧,在通风条件下,矩形或走廊式的各种开口,以显示当前状态和一些关键问题。通过使用气体燃烧器的实验分析了立面火焰,通过引入开放几何形状的物理长度尺度来模拟火焰高度和热通量,从而控制燃料供应率。外立面火焰的一个重要参数是燃料在外壳外燃烧的余热释放率。最后,介绍了带有侧壁的立面火焰和两个开口的立面火焰的应用。
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引用次数: 10
期刊
Fire Safety Science
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