Forest Policy and Economics最新文献_第2页

Rethinking wildfire management policy: Suggestions from firefighters who experienced the 2017 extreme wildfires in Portugal

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103453

Vittorio Leone , Mario Elia , Raffaella Lovreglio , Julian Lovreglio , Fernando Correia , Fantina Tedim

This report analyzes the perspectives of professional and volunteer firefighters who were directly involved in combating extreme wildfire events during Portugal's 2017 fire season. The data were collected through two open-ended questions in a web-based survey, focusing on: i) lessons learned and ii) proposals for improving wildfire suppression management. Responses were qualitatively examined, with categories defined using NVIVO software. Findings reveal that participants exhibit an incomplete understanding of extreme wildfires. Their responses primarily emphasize: i) enhancing the current organizational structure and strengthening technical and human resources within the suppression model (question 1), and ii) increasing human and material resources, establishing a unified command structure, ensuring operational independence from Civil Protection, and valuing experience as key factors for improving Civil Protection (question 2). Minimal attention is directed toward prevention measures and the concept of control capacity. Overall, responses to both questions reflect limited knowledge of the unique challenges posed by extreme wildfires. The prevailing recommendation strengthens the existing suppression model, which is largely viewed as the optimal solution. However, this perspective overlooks the role of the suppression paradigm in contributing to fuel load accumulation and increased fire intensity, as well as its inherent operational limitations.

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引用次数: 0

Understanding farmers' attitudes and aspirations for tree-cover restoration in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103452

Eleanor Durrant , Pete Howson , Susannah M. Sallu , Deo D. Shirima , Margherita Lala , Sergio G. Milheiras , Francis Lyimo , Petro P. Nyiti , Lilian Mwanga , Esther Kioko , Marion Pfeifer

Restoring tree cover to meet international commitments requires context-sensitive approaches, such as agroforestry in rural landscapes, that address local concerns and motivations. This study investigates farmers' attitudes and aspirations for tree-cover restoration in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania, using a novel combination of participatory future farm scenarios and sentiment analysis. Unlike traditional applications of sentiment analysis on large online datasets, we demonstrate its utility in understanding attitudes in rural contexts, complementing participatory engagement efforts. We explore variables influencing smallholders' aspirations for their future farms, with a focus on agroforestry systems, and examine the impact of gender and wellbeing on perceptions and attitudes towards agroforestry and existing natural forests in the landscape. Our findings indicate positive attitudes towards agroforestry, particularly when it provides direct, tangible benefits. However, forests were viewed negatively due to concerns about resource access and human-wildlife interactions. Men associated tree planting with income opportunities, while women favoured scattered trees for subsistence needs. These results underscore the need for inclusive, gender-sensitive restoration practices that align with local preferences. By tailoring restoration strategies to specific local aspirations, concerns and motivations, we can enhance the effectiveness, equity, and acceptance of tree-cover restoration initiatives.

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引用次数: 0

How policy instruments affect forest cover: Evidence from China

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103455

Ruihuan Hou , Guoyong Ma , Lu Tong

The implementation of effective forest governance is of paramount importance for the expansion of forest areas. In this study, we employ a panel dataset comprising 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China from 1999 to 2021, utilising text-mining techniques and a fixed-effects model, to examine the relationship between forest cover and policy instruments. Furthermore, we conduct robustness tests to ensure the validity of the empirical results. The results indicate that: (1) the implementation of comprehensive forest policy instruments in China has significantly contributed to the expansion of forest cover and ensured an increase in forest area; (2) with regard to the impact of policy instruments, economic and political instruments have exerted the most pronounced influence on forest cover, followed by coercion and didactic promotion; (3) state-owned forest areas are more responsive to policy instruments than collective forest areas, and the effects of policy instruments differ significantly between the two. This study underscores the crucial role of the government in promoting forest resource growth in China, reiterating the significance of multidimensional governance in increasing forest cover. Furthermore, it makes a valuable contribution to the quantitative analysis of forest policy.

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引用次数: 0

An evaluation of gravity models and artificial neuronal networks on bilateral trade flows in wood markets

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103457

Christian Morland, Julia Tandetzki, Franziska Schier

Trade fuels economic development in interwoven international wood markets, while economic shocks and structural changes jolt market response behavior. In this context, both accurate predictions and forecasts of trade flows and a deep understanding of their influencing factors are essential for policymakers and stakeholders to enhance economic planning and decision-making affecting trade policies. A popular method for analyzing bilateral trade flows is the deterministic Gravity model of trade due to its intuitive design and effectiveness. However, data-driven machine learning methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN) could enhance the accuracy of deterministic modeling approaches through their complex and potentially nonlinear nature. To the best of our knowledge, no study exists that uses an ANN approach to assess bilateral trade for different wood-based products was. Therefore, it remains unclear whether ANN is an appropriate method to predict and forecast trade flows in forest product markets or if Gravity models of trade might yield better results. This study compares the ability of Gravity models and feedforward neuronal networks (FFNN) to predict existing and forecast future bilateral trade flows of four main product categories in international wood product markets. Our findings highlight that it is essential to consider the purpose of the analysis alongside the specific product group under investigation. The FFNN approach outperforms Gravity models for predicting past and present trade flows, delivering more accurate predictions across all product categories. Looking at the accuracy of forecast, we see that the superiority of FFNNs is present but decreases as the forecast horizon increases.

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引用次数: 0

The impacts of climate-induced insect damage on timberland values in the southeastern U.S.

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103449

Yuhan Wang, David J. Lewis

This paper estimates the impacts of insect damage on private timberland values in the Southeastern U.S. using a large, pooled cross-section of parcel-level timberland transaction price data and county-level insect damage data. Our econometric analysis indicates that a 1000 acre increase in a county's average insect damage acreage reduces timberland prices by approximately 1 %. Using a variety of approaches to estimate the link between seasonal precipitation, temperature, and insect damage acreage, we project an average increase of between 168 and 550 additional acres of annual insect damage per county under future climate projections to 2050 relative to the current climate. Using our econometric estimates, the predicted acreage increase in insect damages will lead to an approximate 0.2 % ($6/acre) to 0.5 % ($14/acre) reduction in weighted timberland prices, resulting in total losses of between $1 billion to $2.5 billion for the entire timberland population in the Southeastern U.S. The methods and results highlight how to use empirical data to project future natural disturbance risk from climate change on the economic value of forested natural capital.

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引用次数: 0

Impact of cost assumptions on forest carbon targets and supply dynamics

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103450

Seong-Hoon Cho , James C. Mingie

Including both explicit and opportunity costs in valuing ecosystem services offers a comprehensive economic assessment, but practical applications often focus on explicit costs alone. This study examines the evolution of spatial targets and supply dynamics for forest carbon in the Central and Southern Appalachian Region, transitioning from a solely explicit-cost approach to one incorporating weighted opportunity costs. We calculate opportunity cost weights by analyzing development pressure at the pixel level, where each pixel's forest conversion rate—estimated as the anticipated shift from forest to urban land use—serves as an index for local development pressure. These weights range from zero (no development pressure) to one (full development pressure), with higher weights assigned to areas facing greater likelihoods of conversion. This approach provides flexibility in estimating opportunity costs based on localized economic pressures. Our findings indicate that incorporating opportunity costs significantly affects forest carbon supply dynamics, with higher development pressures leading to increased costs and reduced potential for carbon storage. By applying weighted opportunity costs, however, the financial burden is moderated, supporting a balance between carbon storage goals and economic considerations. These findings suggest that forest conservation programs would benefit from regionally adjusted incentives, especially in development-prone areas where high opportunity costs might deter landowners from participating. By prioritizing regions with critical carbon storage potential and high conversion risk, conservation policies could maximize environmental impact and economic efficiency across the Appalachian landscape. This approach offers a pathway for conservation policies that support carbon sequestration objectives while acknowledging economic trade-offs.

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引用次数: 0

Forest condition and forest restoration as topics of online communication – An analysis of website performance of selected forest actors in Germany

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103454

Sandra Liebal, Josephine Köhler, Norbert Weber

In recent years, many actors in Germany claimed in debates how forests should be treated in future, e.g. by stating own positions, providing information, and offering participative actions like tree planting events or educational programs. However, also conflicting views and beliefs of different forest actor groups have become apparent in their communication, leading to e.g. fierce debates in TV and social media or protest campaigns against the forest sector. Although knowledge alone is not sufficient to solve conflicts and find consensus solutions, evidence-based knowledge would be beneficial for the course of such discussions as well as for good political decision making. Research so far has pointed out to a crucial need for information on the topics of forest condition and forest restoration. The increasing importance of online media suggests that a corresponding range of information should also be available online, e.g. on websites. Accordingly, this study focuses on websites as channels for direct-to-consumer communication and conducts a media analysis with special emphasis on (i) how much information on the topic is provided by different forest-related actors in Germany on their websites (content) and (ii) how well this information is adapted to the needs of the website users (performance). For website analysis, we refer to the concept of user experience (UX).

The UX of websites has been analyzed for 72 selected institutionalized forest actors, showing that there are clear differences in the UX. In tendency, actors of the interest mediation system operate websites with a better UX than most actors in public administration. Regarding performance, not all websites are sufficient to meet the requirements and needs of website users. Based on the processes of perception and assessment of websites such as proposed by Thielsch and Salaschek (2020; see Fig. 2), a poor performance will result in no or low attention and thus a worse perception of the website content. Regarding content, only very few websites of the investigated actors offer comprehensive information on forest condition and forest restoration. We therefore conclude that the extent of evidence-based information is not suitable to satisfy the need for information on these topics.

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引用次数: 0

Missing the forest for the trees: Ekiti State's quest for forestry revenue and its impact on forest managers

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103451

Giovanni Occhiali , Michael Falade

Many countries' forests are over-exploited and mismanaged, including through ineffective taxation. This is the case across Nigeria, where forest management has been decentralised to individual states. In this paper we assess the forestry tax regime in Ekiti State, where forests represent more than 50 % of land area and forest revenue has been historically relevant. We aim to complement a literature on tropical forest management often based on big-picture theories with a close empirical examination of the experiences of forest managers. Based on 16 interviews with public and private stakeholders, as well as data from the Forestry Commission, our analysis suggests that the Commission excessive focus on forests' revenue-generating capacity is contributing to their depletion, which remains driven by economic phenomena. The conceptualisation of the Forestry Commission as a revenue-raising agency rather than a management one, non-transparent tax rates, and a view of the industry potential disconnected from reality, are perversely associated to decreasing forestry revenue. While there is potential to reform both the structure of forestry taxes and their method of administration, evidence suggests that priority should be given to enforcing lower levels of forest exploitation and to allowing government reserves to regrow. This will require substantial sensitisation and engagement with actors in the sector, as well as increasing the monitoring capacity of the Forestry Commission, which does not currently have enough staff to guarantee the enforcement of existing legislation.

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引用次数: 0

Towards an efficient implementation of the EU biodiversity strategy in forests – An analysis of alternative voluntary conservation mechanisms and selection criteria

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103448

Johanna Kangas , Markku Ollikainen

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and the European Union's Biodiversity Strategy aim to halt biodiversity loss by 2030. Both include ambitious goals to increase the area of protected land and sea to 30 % with 10 % devoted to strict protection. The required land areas are large and challenge current instruments tailored to meet much less ambitious conservation goals. Forest conservation traditionally relies on voluntary flat-rate or cost compensation policies inviting predominantly conservation-minded landowners to conserve their forests. More efficient instruments are needed to meet the ambitious goals of forest biodiversity conservation. We examine how alternative auction mechanisms perform relative to the current instruments under different selection criteria in promoting strict conservation targets. We demonstrate that the studied mechanisms differ in their ability to invite sites to the conservation program. The auction incentivises higher participation from landowners who do not have strong conservation motives and decreases information rents from landowners with strong conservation motives. When selection criteria favour high-quality sites, like old-growth stands, the auction mechanisms outperform the cost compensation policy by providing the largest area of conserved land and the highest ecological values. Thus, auctions offer a promising option for implementing forest biodiversity conservation in accordance with the EU Biodiversity Strategy.

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引用次数: 0

Understanding how urban communities make trade-offs between forest management and ecosystem service objectives

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103445

Haotian Cheng , Francisco J. Escobedo , Alyssa S. Thomas , Jesus Felix De Los Reyes , John N. Ng'ombe , José R. Soto

Urban populations adjacent to forested areas value water-related ecosystem services and recreational opportunities. However, maintaining these benefits requires active forest management through thinning and prescribed burns, infrastructure development as well as issues of equity. These activities can also lead to public concerns over access fees, smoke emissions, and perceived negative impacts on forest health. This study aims to understand the tradeoffs between public preferences and forest management objectives in Wildland-Urban Interface montane forests. We employed an online survey using the Best-Worst Scaling (BWS) method to assess importance rankings and tradeoffs among forest management and ecosystem services attributes. The study focused on urban communities near the San Bernardino and Angeles National Forests in southern California, USA. Results reveal that residents' preferences between frequent visitors group and infrequent visitors group were inconsistent. Residents prioritized mechanical tree removal over prescribed fire as the most important forest management objective. Lakes emerged as the most valued ecosystem service attribute, surpassing rivers and waterfalls. Among recreational infrastructure, public restrooms ranked highest, followed by garbage bins and public grills. These findings provide insights for forest managers and policymakers by offering a framework that balances ecological needs with public preferences. The results are particularly relevant for implementing policies such as the Wildfire Crisis Strategy and forest management plans, by identifying potential conflicts and enhancing public support for forest management decisions.

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引用次数: 0