Forest Policy and Economics最新文献_第3页

Adopting the Palm Oil Moratorium Under External Pressure: Indonesia's Response to the EU’s RED II 在外部压力下采用棕榈油暂停：印度尼西亚对欧盟RED II的回应

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103692

Wahyu Wulandari, Testriono, Moch Faisal Karim

How did the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) II encourage the Indonesian government to implement a moratorium policy for the palm oil industry? Specifically, this study investigates how the RED II regulation pressured the Indonesian government to adopt a moratorium policy for palm oil and why this happened. RED II is a continuation of the previous RED policy implemented by the European Union to regulate the use of renewable energy and aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This study uses a qualitative approach to explore the factors that influence Indonesia's decision-making in responding to global demands for the sustainability of the palm oil industry, especially after the emergence of RED II. Using Spalding's policy adoption approach, the results show that the adoption of the moratorium policy in Indonesia was influenced by significant pressure from the European Union, especially the RED II policy, which limits palm oil imports due to its impact on deforestation and climate change. However, these factors are not sufficient to explain how Indonesia adopted the moratorium and why it happened. There are internal factors, namely socio-economic conditions and bureaucratic aspects in Indonesia that have encouraged the massive expansion of oil palm plantations. This study concludes that these external and internal factors influence each other, thus encouraging Indonesia to adopt the moratorium policy as an effort to overcome difficulties and challenges related to the sustainability of the palm oil industry.

可再生能源指令（RED） II如何鼓励印尼政府对棕榈油行业实施暂停政策？具体而言，本研究调查了RED II法规如何迫使印度尼西亚政府采取暂停棕榈油的政策，以及为什么会发生这种情况。RED II是欧盟之前实施的RED政策的延续，旨在规范可再生能源的使用，减少温室气体排放。本研究采用定性方法探讨影响印度尼西亚决策的因素，以应对全球对棕榈油行业可持续性的需求，特别是在RED II出现之后。使用Spalding的政策采纳方法，结果表明印度尼西亚暂停政策的采纳受到来自欧盟的巨大压力的影响，特别是RED II政策，由于其对森林砍伐和气候变化的影响，该政策限制了棕榈油进口。然而，这些因素并不足以解释印度尼西亚是如何通过暂停的，以及为什么会发生。有一些内部因素，即印度尼西亚的社会经济条件和官僚主义方面，鼓励了油棕种植园的大规模扩张。本研究的结论是，这些外部和内部因素相互影响，从而鼓励印度尼西亚采取暂停政策，以克服与棕榈油行业可持续性相关的困难和挑战。

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引用次数: 0

Decomposing the drivers of forest carbon sink changes from the perspective of digital input: Balancing timber utilization and ecological conservation 数字输入视角下森林碳汇变化驱动因素分解：平衡木材利用与生态保护

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103688

Yan Huang , Hanting Yu , Zhelin Liu , Jin Zhang , Jinhuang Lin

The conservation-utilization conflict between carbon sinks and timber production in forest resource use remains the central constraint on sustainable forestry, while the expanding adoption of digital technologies offers new opportunities to address this challenge. Against this backdrop, this study evaluates carbon sinks and timber production across 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022. This study first employs a non-radial directional distance function (NDDF) under an overall technology framework to develop a dynamic time-series classification of forestry development modes. It then introduces a “digital input utilization” indicator to measure the utilization of digital input in the two forestry outputs. Finally, digital input is integrated into a decomposition framework for carbon-sink growth to systematically determine how various factors drive changes in carbon sinks. The results indicate that: (1) Temporally, China's forestry can be categorized into three modes: win-win development, carbon-sink improvement and timber-production improvement. Observed changes in forest carbon sinks within regions corresponding to each mode closely match the characteristics of that mode. (2) The utilization of digital inputs in the two forestry outputs differs significantly across development modes, often contradicting the characteristics of their corresponding modes. (3) The dominant drivers of carbon-sink growth vary across modes, and the marginal contribution of digital inputs to enhancing the coordination between carbon sinks and timber production exhibits diminishing returns. Overall, this study enhances understanding of how digital investments influence sustainable forestry outcomes and offers guidance for developing differentiated forestry policies.

森林资源利用中碳汇与木材生产之间的保护利用冲突仍然是可持续林业的主要制约因素，而数字技术的广泛采用为解决这一挑战提供了新的机会。在此背景下，本研究评估了2012年至2022年中国31个省份的碳汇和木材产量。本研究首先在整体技术框架下采用非径向定向距离函数（NDDF）建立了林业发展模式的动态时序分类。然后引入了“数字投入利用率”指标来衡量数字投入在两种林业产出中的利用率。最后，将数字输入整合到碳汇增长的分解框架中，以系统地确定各种因素如何驱动碳汇的变化。结果表明：(1)从时间上看，中国林业可分为双赢发展模式、碳汇改善模式和木材生产改善模式。观测到的各模式对应区域内森林碳汇的变化与该模式的特征密切匹配。(2)两种林业产出对数字投入的利用在不同发展模式之间存在显著差异，往往与相应模式的特征相矛盾。(3)不同模式下碳汇增长的主导驱动力存在差异，数字投入对促进碳汇与木材生产协调的边际贡献呈现递减趋势。总体而言，本研究增进了对数字投资如何影响可持续林业成果的理解，并为制定差异化林业政策提供了指导。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating the nexus between customary norms and state laws in shaping rural forest governance: A case study in Aceh Province, Indonesia 在农村森林治理中把握习惯规范与国家法律之间的联系：以印度尼西亚亚齐省为例研究

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103672

Pisca A. Tias , Constance L. McDermott , Mari E. Mulyani

This study utilizes the concepts of “legal pluralism” and “institutional fit” to examine how rural communities in Aceh, Indonesia, navigate legal pluralism in forest governance involving adat (customary) and state (i.e., Social Forestry) legal systems. Comparative case studies in four community-managed forests (Lutueng, Bale Redelong, Kunyet, and Paloh) reveal that both the strength of adat institutions and the degree of social cohesion (i.e., a homogeneous ethnic composition and shared adat practices) influence a community's capacity to negotiate governance systems that reflect local socio-ecological realities. This variation in capacity illustrates that “fit” is not merely an issue of institutional or policy design; it depends on the social foundations that either facilitate or restrict customary institutional negotiation and innovation. For policymakers implementing Social Forestry (SF) programs within pluralistic legal systems, this study highlights two imperatives. First, it is important to ground interventions in an in-depth evaluation of local institutional contexts, as well as the strength of customary governance structures and the historical dynamics between state and customary institutions. Second, SF must be designed in ways that empower communities to adapt governance approaches to their specific socio-ecological contexts. This includes integrating the administrative and legal requirements as stipulated in the SF ministerial regulations with existing customary practices, rather than relying on uniform state-driven frameworks that risk undermining local realities.

本研究利用“法律多元主义”和“制度适宜性”的概念来考察印度尼西亚亚齐农村社区如何在涉及习惯法和国家法（即社会林业）法律制度的森林治理中驾驭法律多元主义。四个社区管理森林（Lutueng、Bale Redelong、Kunyet和Paloh）的比较案例研究表明，森林制度的强度和社会凝聚力的程度（即同质的种族组成和共享的森林实践）都会影响社区协商反映当地社会生态现实的治理体系的能力。这种能力的差异表明，“合适”不仅仅是制度或政策设计的问题；它取决于促进或限制惯例制度谈判和创新的社会基础。对于在多元法律体系中实施社会林业（SF）项目的政策制定者来说，本研究强调了两个必要条件。首先，在深入评估当地制度背景、习惯治理结构的强度以及国家与习惯机构之间的历史动态的基础上进行干预是很重要的。其次，SF的设计方式必须使社区能够根据其特定的社会生态环境调整治理方法。这包括将SF部长条例中规定的行政和法律要求与现有惯例相结合，而不是依赖统一的国家驱动框架，这可能会破坏当地的现实。

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引用次数: 0

Sinking into standing forests or timber for climate change mitigation: Instrument constituencies and policy preferences 为减缓气候变化而开发活林或木材：工具选区和政策偏好

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103686

Tamaki Ohmura , Eva Lieberherr , Leonard Creutzburg

Different policy instruments can pursue the same policy goal, such as climate change mitigation, while serving very different individual interests. The question of how carbon should be stored, e.g. as a standing stock (forest sink) or in timber for material use (timber sink) is a prime example of such a goal that can be pursued with different policy options and instruments. What is more, for stakeholders and policymakers there is no clear evidence-based recommendation for which sink to prioritize, which leads to diverging preferences for a policy. We argue that the differences in preferences are not based on the effectiveness of the policy instrument in achieving the (environmental) goal, but on two other factors: 1) the existence of an instrument constituency promoting one specific policy option and related policy instruments, and 2) the degree of governmental intervention associated with an instrument. We use the concept of an instrument constituency to explain the preference for one policy option with different instruments over another in the absence of an evidence-based recommendation for a solution. Using the case study of the Swiss constituent state (canton) of Lucerne, we analyse interest groups, politicians and public-administrative actors' core beliefs in relation to nature conservation and nature-use, their policy preferences regarding forest versus timber sink as well as their preferences for different policy instruments to promote the forest and/or timber sink. Using data from an online survey conducted in 2020, we find two coalitions of actors: one holding the core belief that nature conservation takes priority over nature-use, the other prioritizing nature-use and assuming that these objectives can be pursued simultaneously. In sum, we observe an instrument constituency forming around a timber sink instrument in the form of a certification scheme in this Swiss case. The instrument which was developed by the timber industry, is integrated into the national compliance carbon market and supported by a broad range of respondents both holding nature conservation and nature-use core beliefs. Whether our application of the instrument constituency concept can explain international cases where the certification for forest sinks has gained ground during the last years, is a question to be addressed in future research.

不同的政策工具可以追求相同的政策目标，例如减缓气候变化，同时服务于非常不同的个人利益。如何储存碳的问题，例如作为常存量（森林汇）或储存在木材中供材料使用（木材汇），就是可以通过不同的政策选择和工具来实现这一目标的一个主要例子。更重要的是，对于利益相关者和政策制定者来说，没有明确的基于证据的建议来优先考虑哪个汇，这导致了对政策的不同偏好。我们认为，偏好的差异不是基于政策工具在实现（环境）目标方面的有效性，而是基于其他两个因素：1)是否存在促进特定政策选择和相关政策工具的工具选民，以及2)与工具相关的政府干预程度。我们使用工具群体的概念来解释在缺乏基于证据的解决方案建议的情况下，对不同工具的一种政策选择的偏好。通过对瑞士卢塞恩州的案例研究，我们分析了利益集团、政治家和公共行政行为者在自然保护和自然利用方面的核心信念，他们对森林和木材汇的政策偏好，以及他们对促进森林和/或木材汇的不同政策工具的偏好。利用2020年进行的一项在线调查的数据，我们发现了两个行动者联盟：一个持有自然保护优先于自然利用的核心信念，另一个优先考虑自然利用，并假设这些目标可以同时实现。总之，我们观察到在这个瑞士案例中，以认证方案的形式围绕木材汇仪器形成的仪器选区。该工具由木材行业开发，已纳入国家合规碳市场，并得到了持有自然保护和自然利用核心信念的广泛受访者的支持。我们对工具组成概念的应用是否可以解释过去几年森林汇认证取得进展的国际案例，这是未来研究中需要解决的问题。

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引用次数: 0

Faster than politics – Policy forecasting ahead of government formation? 比政治更快——政府组建前的政策预测？

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103683

Detlef F. Sprinz , Max Krott

Will a new government potentially formed in 2025 pursue different forest policies as compared to its predecessor? Using the German government formation in spring 2025 as an example, we employ a negotiations prediction model to forecast specific forest policies ahead of their coalition agreement. As compared to predictions about the policies of the immediately preceding government as of 2022, the scope for remuneration of forest carbon will be very mildly increased, the remuneration for forests adapted to climate change somewhat increased, and the predicted remuneration for forest conservation substantially reduced. We demonstrate that short-term policy predictions based on numeric negotiations models are feasible and outline the implications for the forest sector and science-based policy advice.

2025年可能成立的新政府是否会采取与前任政府不同的森林政策？以2025年春季德国政府组阁为例，采用谈判预测模型，在其联合政府达成协议之前预测具体的森林政策。与上一届政府2022年的政策预测相比，森林碳补偿的范围将小幅增加，适应气候变化的森林补偿将有所增加，森林保护的预测补偿将大幅减少。我们证明了基于数字谈判模型的短期政策预测是可行的，并概述了对森林部门和基于科学的政策建议的影响。

引用次数: 0

Citation dynamics, thematic structure and temporal evolution of research on the Faustmann Forest Economics model (1962–2025) fastmann森林经济学模型研究的引文动态、主题结构与时间演化（1962-2025）

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103685

Sofia Mpekiri, Konstantinos G. Papaspyropoulos

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a systematic literature review on the regional and thematic evolution of research around the Faustmann natural resource economic model. The Faustmann model, originating from capital theory, was developed to maximize forest land expectation value (LEV). Since its formulation, it has become a cornerstone of forest economics, particularly in studies on optimal rotation age. This study employs text analytics and co-citation mapping using VOSviewer, with bibliographic data sourced from Scopus to produce two types of analysis: a country co-citation map and a term co-occurrence map based on records from 1962 to 2025, examining how the model has been applied, extended, and modified to address specific challenges corresponding the forest economy characteristics of geographical regions and contemporary forestry concerns, including risk assessment, climate change, carbon sequestration, and sustainable forest management. Article inclusion was determined following the PRISMA guideline, ensuring relevance and methodological rigor. The results provide insight into how the model has been diversified due to national research priorities and ecological characteristics, as well as it's thematic evolution into four major thematic areas: (1) carbon sequestration, plantation forestry, and economic incentives; (2) theoretical extensions of the Faustmann model; (3) storm risk, timber market uncertainty, and opportunity cost; and (4) climate change, fire and pest risk, and adaptive management strategies. An overlay visualization was also generated to examine the model's evolution through time.

本文的目的是对围绕Faustmann自然资源经济模型的区域和专题研究演变进行系统的文献综述。Faustmann模型起源于资本理论，旨在最大化林地期望价值（LEV）。自提出以来，它已成为森林经济学的基石，特别是在最佳轮伐年龄的研究中。本研究使用VOSviewer进行文本分析和共被引映射，并使用来自Scopus的书目数据进行两类分析：基于1962年至2025年记录的国家共被引图和术语共现图，研究了该模型如何应用、扩展和修改，以应对与地理区域森林经济特征和当代林业问题相对应的具体挑战，包括风险评估、气候变化、碳封存和可持续森林管理。文章纳入是根据PRISMA指南确定的，以确保相关性和方法的严谨性。研究结果揭示了该模型因国家研究重点和生态特征而呈现出的多样性，以及该模型在四个主要主题领域的演变：(1)碳固存、人工林和经济激励；(2) Faustmann模型的理论拓展；(3)风暴风险、木材市场不确定性和机会成本；(4)气候变化、火灾和害虫风险以及适应性管理策略。还生成了覆盖可视化，以检查模型随时间的演变。

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引用次数: 0

Cross-sectoral policy integration of forest biomass for renewable energy in Indonesia 印度尼西亚森林生物质可再生能源跨部门政策一体化

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103684

Sukasno , Nunuk Supriyatno , Johanes P.G. Sutapa , Ahmad Maryudi

Promoted as a strategy to reduce emissions, the use of forest biomass for renewable energy requires cross-sectoral policy integration between the forest and energy sectors. In this paper, integration is examined through coherence and consistency of policies. Policy coherence refers to alignment of policy objectives of the focal sectors with the goal of reducing carbon emissions. Consistency is assessed by looking at: 1) conformity with stated objectives, 2) consistency across regulations, 3) unaddressed trade-offs, and 4) regulatory gaps. We used those indicators to assess 18 key thematic areas. An initial analysis shows a coherence of the policy objectives of both sectors, centered around the overarching national goal of reducing emission through forest biomass utilization. However, findings on the consistency of regulatory instruments are more nuanced. While the indicator of regulatory alignment is largely fulfilled, we found several inconsistencies of rules and unaddressed trade-offs in several thematic areas, mainly related to the absence of prioritization by and formal commitment of the forest sector to supply biomass due to issues related to fair prices and tariffs. In addition, there is a great deal of regulatory vacuum governing the utilization of biomass for energy. Overall, we conclude the cross-sectoral policy integration is largely symbolic, driven by higher-level pressures, rather than the result of genuine cooperation. While this study focuses on Indonesia, the identified challenges such as sectoral silos and top-down alignment appear common in forest-based biomass initiatives in many countries, where institutional fragmentation often impedes coherent energy transitions.

作为减少排放的一项战略，利用森林生物量生产可再生能源需要森林和能源部门之间的跨部门政策一体化。在本文中，整合是通过政策的连贯性和一致性来检验的。政策一致性是指重点部门的政策目标与减少碳排放的目标保持一致。一致性是通过以下方面来评估的：1)与既定目标的一致性，2)跨法规的一致性，3)未处理的权衡，以及4)法规缺口。我们利用这些指标评估了18个关键专题领域。初步分析表明，这两个部门的政策目标是一致的，其中心是通过利用森林生物量减少排放的总体国家目标。然而，关于监管工具一致性的调查结果则更为微妙。虽然监管一致性指标基本实现，但我们发现在几个主题领域存在规则不一致和未解决的权衡问题，主要与森林部门由于公平价格和关税问题而没有优先考虑和正式承诺提供生物质有关。此外，在利用生物质作为能源方面存在很大的管制真空。总的来说，我们得出结论，跨部门的政策整合在很大程度上是象征性的，是由更高层次的压力驱动的，而不是真正合作的结果。虽然本研究的重点是印度尼西亚，但所确定的挑战，如部门筒仓和自上而下的协调，在许多国家的基于森林的生物质倡议中似乎很常见，在这些国家，制度碎片化往往阻碍连贯的能源转型。

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引用次数: 0

Identifying key components for multiobjective forest management decisions: A case study of state-owned Finnish forests 确定多目标森林管理决策的关键组成部分：芬兰国有森林的案例研究

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103681

Bekir Afsar , Johanna Silvennoinen , Kyle Eyvindson , Kaisa Miettinen , Otso Ovaskainen

Finland’s state-owned forests provide multiple public values, including timber production, biodiversity conservation, and recreational use, often leading to trade-offs between conflicting objectives. The use of multiobjective optimization (MOO) helps navigate these trade-offs, but its effectiveness depends on how well the problem is formulated. While MOO studies in forest management typically focus on solving optimization models, they often overlook the crucial problem structuring phase. This study addresses that gap by identifying the key components required to formulate an MOO problem, based on perspectives from stakeholders and decision makers involved in Finnish state-owned forest management.

Using semi-structured interviews with 20 participants, we identified six essential themes for MOO formulation: objective functions, decision options, constraints, available data, evaluation of objective functions, as well as uncertainty and risks. These themes reflect both commonly modeled components, such as timber production and economic returns, and less frequently integrated considerations, including biodiversity, recreational values, and risks associated with climate change and forest disturbances.

Our findings contribute a replicable participatory approach for eliciting MOO components through the engagement of stakeholders and decision makers. By highlighting the importance of problem structuring, the study supports the development of more transparent, context-sensitive, and acceptable MOO models. Engaging participants in this early phase reveals a broader range of forest management priorities than typically represented in conventional MOO models, offering opportunities for improved decision support in public forest governance.

芬兰的国有森林提供了多种公共价值，包括木材生产、生物多样性保护和娱乐用途，经常导致在相互冲突的目标之间进行权衡。多目标优化（MOO）的使用有助于进行这些权衡，但其有效性取决于问题的制定程度。森林管理中的MOO研究通常侧重于求解优化模型，但往往忽略了关键的问题构建阶段。本研究根据参与芬兰国有森林管理的利益相关者和决策者的观点，确定了制定MOO问题所需的关键组成部分，从而解决了这一差距。通过对20位参与者的半结构化访谈，我们确定了mooo制定的六个基本主题：目标函数、决策选项、约束条件、可用数据、目标函数评估以及不确定性和风险。这些主题既反映了木材生产和经济回报等常见建模成分，也反映了不太常见的综合考虑因素，包括生物多样性、娱乐价值以及与气候变化和森林干扰相关的风险。我们的发现提供了一种可复制的参与式方法，通过利益相关者和决策者的参与来引出mooo组成部分。通过强调问题结构的重要性，该研究支持开发更透明、上下文敏感和可接受的mooo模型。与传统的mooo模式相比，让参与者参与这一早期阶段揭示了更广泛的森林管理优先事项，为改善公共森林治理的决策支持提供了机会。

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引用次数: 0

Not an easy ride: Economic research priorities for pro-environmental trade regulation 并非易事：经济研究优先考虑有利于环境的贸易监管

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103682

Dario Schulz , Johanna Coenen , Mairon Bastos Lima , Laila Berning , Jan Börner , Mathias Cramm , Cecilia Fraccaroli , Gustavo Magalhães de Oliveira , U. Martin Persson , Metodi Sotirov , Sven Wunder

Demand-side trade regulation is promoted as a policy tool to reduce negative environmental and socioeconomic footprints associated with global commodity supply chains. We present a theory of change (ToC) that explains how the economics of pro-environmental trade regulation can be expected to work, using the recent EU Regulation on Deforestation-free products (EUDR) as a topical illustration. Along this complex ToC, we review and characterize multiple factors that might either constrain overall policy effectiveness or enhance it. Evidence suggests that, in addition to land-use leakage (the displacement of environmental pressures to unregulated domains), predictably strong market-segregating responses might rearrange sourcing and trading patterns, especially where EU commodity import shares are low. Lacking observable and attributable land-use changes, segregation spillovers are harder to document. We outline an economically informed interdisciplinary research agenda around the potential impact pathways of demand-side trade regulations. However, our ex-ante conceptual policy assessment also cautions of potential functional shortcomings in reaching the desired global forest-protective goals.

需求侧贸易监管作为一种政策工具得到推广，以减少与全球商品供应链相关的负面环境和社会经济足迹。我们提出了一个变化理论（ToC），解释了亲环境贸易法规的经济学是如何发挥作用的，并以最近的欧盟无森林砍伐产品法规（EUDR）为例进行了专题说明。沿着这个复杂的ToC，我们回顾并描述了可能限制或增强总体政策有效性的多个因素。证据表明，除了土地利用泄漏（环境压力转移到不受监管的领域），可预见的强烈市场隔离反应可能会重新安排采购和贸易模式，特别是在欧盟商品进口份额较低的地方。由于缺乏可观察和可归因的土地利用变化，隔离溢出效应更难记录。我们围绕需求侧贸易法规的潜在影响途径，概述了一个经济上知情的跨学科研究议程。然而，我们事先的概念性政策评估也提醒人们注意在实现预期的全球森林保护目标方面可能存在的功能缺陷。

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引用次数: 0

A biblio-econometric analysis of tropical forest loss dynamics 热带森林损失动态的文献计量经济学分析

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103673

Serge Silatsa Nanda , Francis B.T. Silatsa , Martin Jemo , Martin Yemefack , Junna Iwano , Takahiro Fujiwara

Tropical forests, crucial for the planet, are witnessing alarming rates of loss. Literature resulting from research on tropical forest loss (TFL) has been extensive over the last three decades, but its connection with TFL drivers and contribution to halting TFL remains unexplored. This study spotlights the TFL and its related research trends, merging bibliometric analysis and econometric modeling using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Granger causality approaches. We relied on data encompassing 4132 publications on TFL and 1683 observations for each driver from 51 tropical countries, covering the period 1990–2022. The TFL bibliography has increased primarily outside of tropical countries, although its impact is still hampered by weak policy endorsement. Agricultural expansion is identified as the strongest TFL driver, with 1 million hectares of new farmland inducing 1.5 million hectares of TFL. Similarly, logging has a delayed but significant impact on TFL. In contrast, mining and improvement of GDP per capita initially increase TFL but contribute to its reduction after two years, supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Our findings reveal that research on TFL is crucial for reducing TFL, as each additional 10 publications contributes to a reduction of 0.7 million hectares of TFL in the subsequent year. Literature citations revealed a delayed and indirect effect, highlighting a research-policy gap. The outlined results emphasize the importance of translating scientific knowledge into governance actions. Strengthening science-policy interfaces, enhancing research alignment with conservation goals and investing in policy-responsive knowledge systems are crucial for transitioning to effective sustainability in tropical forests.

对地球至关重要的热带森林正在以惊人的速度消失。在过去的三十年中，关于热带森林损失（TFL）的研究已经得到了广泛的研究，但其与TFL驱动因素的联系以及对阻止TFL的贡献仍未被探索。本研究结合文献计量学分析和计量经济学模型，采用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）和格兰杰因果关系方法，重点介绍了城市交通运输及其相关研究趋势。我们所依赖的数据包括4132份关于TFL的出版物和1683份来自51个热带国家的每位司机的观测数据，涵盖了1990年至2022年。TFL书目主要在热带国家以外增加，尽管其影响仍然受到政策支持不力的阻碍。农业扩张被认为是最强大的TFL驱动因素，100万公顷的新农田诱发了150万公顷的TFL。同样，日志记录对TFL有延迟但重要的影响。相比之下，采矿和人均GDP的提高最初增加了TFL，但两年后有助于其减少，支持环境库兹涅茨曲线假设。我们的研究结果表明，对TFL的研究对于减少TFL至关重要，因为每增加10份出版物，就会在随后的一年中减少70万公顷的TFL。文献引用揭示了延迟和间接的影响，突出了研究与政策的差距。概述的结果强调了将科学知识转化为治理行动的重要性。加强科学与政策的衔接，加强研究与保护目标的一致性，投资于响应政策的知识系统，对于向热带森林的有效可持续性过渡至关重要。

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引用次数: 0