Forest Policy and Economics最新文献_第6页

Information access, governance support and operational flexibility are needed to drive adaptation of European forests to global change 要推动欧洲森林适应全球变化，需要信息获取、治理支持和业务灵活性

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103654

Julius Willig , Sabeth Häublein , Stefan Sorge , Annechien Brudermann , Elena Cantarello , Josep Maria Espelta , Liina Häyrinen , Tomás Hlasny , Nina Horstmann , Silvija Krajter Ostoić , Marie Lautrup , Maša Zorana Ostrogović Sever , Mikko Peltoniemi , Juan Picos , Yulia Poskakukhina , Björn Reineking , Ian Short , Jonathan Spazzi , Marie Vaney , Dijana Vuletić , Jürgen Bauhus

Many forest owners and professionals recognize global change and increasing forest disturbances as pressing challenges but have yet to implement adaptation options to counteract the impacts on their forests. The ecological effectiveness of these options is context-dependent, influenced by site conditions and the quality of implementation. In addition, the socio-economic context can support or impede the implementation of adaptation options. To assess the relevance of implementation barriers and how they are perceived, we surveyed over 800 forest owners and professionals across Europe.

Adaptation options that were perceived as effective were also more likely to be applied. Owing to its low evidence of effectiveness and conflicts with other management objectives, non-management was largely regarded as a non-viable adaptation option. Overall, respondents rated the importance of most implementation barriers as low to moderate. However, for certain adaptation options, specific barriers were perceived as particularly relevant. Forest owners and professionals with experience in practicing forest adaptation regarded potential barriers as less constraining than other groups of participants. More timber production-oriented owners and professionals identified economic issues as particularly constraining. To facilitate implementation of adaptation, participants suggested improved communication, more education, more flexible legislation and simpler access to financial support.

Different specific site and management contexts complicate the development of general recommendations. Therefore, local science-practice collaborations and platforms to share experiences regarding adaptation options could promote the adaptive capacity of forest owners and professionals.

许多森林所有者和专业人员认识到全球变化和日益增加的森林干扰是紧迫的挑战，但尚未实施适应方案来抵消对其森林的影响。这些方案的生态效益取决于环境，受场地条件和实施质量的影响。此外，社会经济背景可以支持或阻碍适应方案的实施。为了评估实施障碍的相关性以及人们对这些障碍的看法，我们调查了欧洲800多名森林所有者和专业人士。被认为有效的适应备选办法也更有可能得到应用。由于非管理的有效性证据较低且与其他管理目标相冲突，非管理在很大程度上被认为是一种不可行的适应选择。总体而言，受访者将大多数实施障碍的重要性评为低至中等。然而，对于某些适应备选办法，人们认为具体的障碍特别相关。与其他参与者群体相比，森林所有者和具有森林适应实践经验的专业人员认为潜在障碍的限制较小。更多以木材生产为导向的业主和专业人士认为经济问题是特别的制约因素。为了促进适应的实施，与会者建议改善沟通、加强教育、更灵活的立法和更简单地获得资金支持。不同的具体地点和管理环境使一般性建议的制定复杂化。因此，地方科学-实践合作以及分享适应方案经验的平台可以促进森林所有者和专业人员的适应能力。

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引用次数: 0

Decision support systems to improve the provision of forest ecosystem services: Stakeholders' opinions and expectations in Italy and North-Macedonia 改善森林生态系统服务提供的决策支持系统：意大利和北马其顿利益相关者的意见和期望

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103651

Sofia Baldessari , Makedonka Stojanovska , Vladimir Stojanovski , Isabella De Meo , Alessandro Paletto

In recent decades, Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have become increasingly relevant for supporting decision-makers in forest planning and management. In the literature, several studies have developed DSSs to optimize the provision of certain ecosystem services (ESs) such as timber production, biodiversity conservation and recreation, but there is a knowledge gap on the users' perspective. This study investigates stakeholders' opinions on the role and usefulness of DSSs in forest management planning and the importance of different ESs provided by forests to be considered in DSSs development. A semi-structured questionnaire was administered to 55 stakeholders from Italy (32) and North-Macedonia (23) to gather their points of view. Results highlighted that 43.8 % of Italian stakeholders and 30.4 % of North-Macedonian stakeholders are familiar with DSSs concept, while only a minority regularly uses these tools in their work (6.3 % and 13.0 % respectively). Despite limited direct use, respondents demonstrated strong expertise in ESs and in assessing the effects of forest management on ESs. On this topic, stakeholders of both countries converge in considering the regulating services (natural hazards protection and climate change mitigation) as the most important ESs provided by forests, followed by provisioning services (timber and bioenergy production). Regarding forest management strategies, “combined objective” and “close-to-nature” approaches were identified as having the most positive impacts on ESs. The “combined objective” strategy is considered most effective for enhancing climate change mitigation, timber and bioenergy production, while close-to-nature management is preferred for improving biodiversity and genetic resources.

近几十年来，决策支持系统（DSSs）在支持森林规划和管理的决策者方面变得越来越重要。在文献中，一些研究已经开发了DSSs来优化某些生态系统服务（ESs）的提供，如木材生产、生物多样性保护和娱乐，但在用户的角度上存在知识差距。本研究调查了利益相关者对可持续发展服务在森林管理规划中的作用和有用性的看法，以及森林提供的不同可持续发展服务在发展可持续发展服务中需要考虑的重要性。对来自意大利（32人）和北马其顿（23人）的55名利益相关者进行了半结构化问卷调查，以收集他们的观点。结果强调，43.8%的意大利利益相关者和30.4%的北马其顿利益相关者熟悉DSSs概念，而只有少数人在工作中经常使用这些工具（分别为6.3%和13.0%）。尽管直接使用有限，答复者在生态环境和评估森林管理对生态环境的影响方面表现出很强的专门知识。在这一主题上，两国利益攸关方一致认为，调节服务（保护自然灾害和减缓气候变化）是森林提供的最重要的环境服务，其次是供应服务（木材和生物能源生产）。关于森林管理战略，“综合目标”和“接近自然”的方法被认为对生态环境具有最积极的影响。“综合目标”战略被认为对加强减缓气候变化、木材和生物能源生产最为有效，而在改善生物多样性和遗传资源方面，更倾向于采用接近自然的管理。

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引用次数: 0

Deforestation, land use, and malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon: A spatial analysis 巴西亚马逊地区的森林砍伐、土地利用和疟疾发病率：空间分析

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103653

Luan Marca , Marco Tulio Aniceto Franca , Augusto Mussi Alvim , Evandro Tatim da Silva

This study analyzes the determinants of malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon, focusing on patterns of deforestation, agricultural mechanization, and their spatio-temporal dynamics. Using municipal-level panel data (2007–2020) and spatial econometric models, we identify two main findings: Deforestation increases malaria incidence in a non-linear fashion, with significant impacts lasting up to five years and a renewed peak nearly a decade later. Mechanization reduces transmission: A 1 % increase in heavy machinery (e.g., crawler tractors) is associated with a 0.67 % decrease in the incidence rate. A 1 % increase in light machinery (e.g., wheeled tractors) is associated with a 0.37 % decrease, attributable to intensified land use and habitat management. Policy implications may include targeted subsidies for light mechanization leasing in high-incidence municipalities. This strategy could simultaneously curb malaria and deforestation by leveraging degraded pasture areas as expansion zones for cultivation using light machinery, thus eliminating the need for forest invasion.

本研究分析了巴西亚马逊地区疟疾发病率的决定因素，重点研究了森林砍伐、农业机械化的模式及其时空动态。利用市级面板数据（2007-2020年）和空间计量模型，我们确定了两个主要发现：森林砍伐以非线性方式增加疟疾发病率，其显著影响持续长达五年，并在近十年后再次达到峰值。机械化减少传播：重型机械（如履带式拖拉机）每增加1%，发病率就会降低0.67%。由于集约化的土地利用和生境管理，轻型机械（如轮式拖拉机）每增加1%，与减少0.37%相关。政策影响可能包括对轻型机械化租赁在高发城市提供有针对性的补贴。这一战略可以同时遏制疟疾和森林砍伐，方法是利用退化的牧场作为使用轻型机械耕作的扩展区，从而消除对森林入侵的需要。

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引用次数: 0

A policy analysis of peatland-related policies - pressures, ecosystem services, conservation and restoration 泥炭地相关政策的政策分析——压力、生态系统服务、保护和恢复

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103642

Chaitanya Suárez-Rojas , Camilla Widmark

Over the last fifty years, peatlands have shifted from being intensively drained and exploited to being at the heart of debates about fighting climate change and other environmental crises. Despite current efforts towards peatland restoration and conservation, political action is not reaching the desired targets. Are policies really providing consistent and coherent solutions? This study reviews how peatland issues have been addressed in the international political discourse and how policies in Europe and Sweden are responding to such issues to halt peatland degradation. The study follows a multi-step approach comprising i) policy selection, ii) framing process, and iii) policy coherence analysis. The results reveal that European and Swedish policies from different fields (biodiversity and conservation, climate change, agriculture, forestry, land use and soil, energy, and water) broadly emphasise the need for peatland protection and conservation. However, these policies lack coherence in addressing the different impacts affecting peatlands, comprehending certain ecosystem functions and services, and identifying explicit nature-, financial-, and social capacity-based solutions for their restoration and sustainable use. This evidence highlights the need to foster coordination among decision-makers within and across different policy fields at both governance levels.

在过去的50年里，泥炭地从被大量抽干和开发，变成了应对气候变化和其他环境危机辩论的核心。尽管目前正在努力恢复和保护泥炭地，但政治行动没有达到预期的目标。政策真的提供了一致和连贯的解决方案吗？本研究回顾了泥炭地问题如何在国际政治话语中得到解决，以及欧洲和瑞典的政策如何应对这些问题以阻止泥炭地退化。本研究采用多步骤方法，包括i)政策选择，ii)框架过程，以及iii)政策一致性分析。结果表明，欧洲和瑞典不同领域（生物多样性和保护、气候变化、农业、林业、土地利用和土壤、能源和水）的政策普遍强调对泥炭地保护和养护的需要。然而，这些政策在处理影响泥炭地的不同影响、理解某些生态系统功能和服务以及为泥炭地的恢复和可持续利用确定明确的基于自然、金融和社会能力的解决方案方面缺乏一致性。这一证据突出表明，需要在两个治理级别促进不同政策领域内部和之间的决策者之间的协调。

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引用次数: 0

A global review of agroforestry research and policy directions: Addressing ecological and socioeconomic challenges through systematic review and bibliometric analysis 农林业研究和政策方向的全球回顾：通过系统回顾和文献计量分析解决生态和社会经济挑战

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103639

Umesh Sharma , Shilpa Sharma , Neeraj Sankhyan , Sunny Sharma , Sarthak Sharma

Agroforestry is increasingly recognized as a transformative solution to global challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and food insecurity. This study integrates systematic review and bibliometric approaches to analyze agroforestry research trends from 1980 to 2024, drawing on 8090 publications from the Scopus database. Using Biblioshiny (bibliometrix R package) and VOSviewer, we identified notable surge in research activity, with 75 % of publications after 2015, reflecting heightened global interest. Thematic and keyword analysis highlights agroforestry's role in carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and climate-smart agriculture as dominant priorities, alongside rising interest in policy integration, economics, and ecosystem services. Geographically, the USA (816), India (800), and Brazil (715) lead in research output, while Agroforestry Systems, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, and Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment publish the highest number of articles. Citation network analysis reveals strong international collaborations, particularly among European, North American, and Asian researchers, while contributions from Africa, despite wide geographic participation, remain comparatively limited. Despite progress, challenges persist in policy integration, long-term adoption strategies, and financial incentives for practitioners. Policymakers must ensure secure land and tree tenure, carbon rights, support capacity building, and enhance market access in remote marketing infrastructure to maintain fiscal viability of AFS, as initiated in India through the National Agroforestry Policy (NAP) 2014. Modern technologies like UAVs and integrated policies can revolutionize monitoring and management. Future research should prioritize agroforestry's impact on soil biota and pollinators, and field based carbon sequestration estimates, underscoring its critical role in achieving SDGs and advancing global sustainability.

农林业日益被认为是应对气候变化、生物多样性丧失和粮食不安全等全球挑战的变革性解决方案。本研究结合系统综述和文献计量学方法，利用Scopus数据库中的8090篇出版物，分析了1980 - 2024年农林业研究的趋势。使用Biblioshiny （bibliometrix R软件包）和VOSviewer，我们发现研究活动显著增加，2015年之后有75%的出版物，反映了全球兴趣的提高。专题和关键词分析强调农林业在碳封存、生物多样性保护和气候智慧型农业方面的作用是主要重点，同时对政策整合、经济和生态系统服务的兴趣也在增加。从地理上看，美国（816）、印度（800）和巴西（715）在研究产出方面领先，而农林业系统、IOP会议系列：地球与环境科学和农业、生态系统与环境发表的文章数量最多。引文网络分析显示了强有力的国际合作，特别是在欧洲、北美和亚洲的研究人员之间，而来自非洲的贡献，尽管广泛的地理参与，仍然相对有限。尽管取得了进展，但在政策整合、长期采用战略和从业者的财务激励方面仍然存在挑战。政策制定者必须确保有保障的土地和树木使用权、碳权，支持能力建设，并加强远程营销基础设施的市场准入，以维持AFS的财政可行性，这是印度通过2014年国家农林政策（NAP）发起的。无人机和综合政策等现代技术可以彻底改变监测和管理。未来的研究应优先考虑农林业对土壤生物群和传粉媒介的影响，以及基于田间的碳固存估算，强调其在实现可持续发展目标和促进全球可持续性方面的关键作用。

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引用次数: 0

Advancing palm oil sustainability to address the climate crisis: Leveraging theory of change and system dynamics model at the jurisdictional level 推进棕榈油可持续性以应对气候危机：在管辖层面利用变化理论和系统动力学模型

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103594

Herry Purnomo , Beni Okarda , Lila Juniyanti , Sonya Dyah Kusumadewi , Dyah Puspitaloka , Monica Azzahra , Salwa Nadhira , Prasetya Irawan , Nining Liswanti , George C. Schoneveld , Michael A. Brady

Global green deals, such as the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), aim to enhance the environmental governance of key commodities, including palm oil, cocoa, timber, and soy, by requiring them to be deforestation-free, legally sourced, and traceable. EUDR poses both challenges and opportunities for producing countries. This study explores how Indonesia's palm oil sector can align with EUDR-defined sustainability standards through inclusive and systemic approaches. We employed a participatory Theory of Change involving key stakeholders across the palm oil value chain, supported by systems dynamic modeling to simulate trade-offs and identify strategic pathways toward sustainability. The approach revealed inevitable trade-offs between economic, ecological, and social dimensions. Practical solutions are available to support EUDR compliance by reducing deforestation and illegal activity while sustaining the palm oil economy. These include production intensification, certification, carbon credit, payment for environmental services, and ecological fiscal transfers from the central government. These strategies have been collaboratively developed and endorsed by both the government and stakeholders. Indonesia's experience demonstrates that participatory, system-based methods can facilitate alignment with global sustainability regulations while addressing local priorities. The lessons and approaches apply to other environmentally sensitive commodities and geographies that aim to meet global environmental and social standards.

全球绿色协议，如欧盟森林砍伐条例（EUDR），旨在加强对关键商品的环境治理，包括棕榈油、可可、木材和大豆，要求这些商品不砍伐森林，来源合法，可追溯。EUDR给生产国带来了挑战和机遇。本研究探讨了印尼棕榈油行业如何通过包容性和系统性的方法与eudr定义的可持续性标准保持一致。我们采用了涉及棕榈油价值链上关键利益相关者的参与式变革理论，并通过系统动态建模来模拟权衡并确定实现可持续性的战略途径。这种方法揭示了经济、生态和社会维度之间不可避免的权衡。通过减少森林砍伐和非法活动，同时维持棕榈油经济，可以提供切实可行的解决方案来支持遵守EUDR。这些措施包括生产集约化、认证、碳信用、环境服务支付以及中央政府的生态财政转移。这些战略是由政府和利益相关者共同制定和认可的。印度尼西亚的经验表明，参与性的、基于系统的方法可以促进与全球可持续性法规的一致，同时解决当地的优先事项。这些经验教训和方法适用于其他环境敏感型商品和旨在达到全球环境和社会标准的地区。

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引用次数: 0

Using the life satisfaction approach to economically value the health and wellbeing benefits of forest and green space visits in Italy 在意大利，使用生活满意度方法对森林和绿色空间访问的健康和福祉效益进行经济评估

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103640

Aisling Sealy Phelan , Gianluca Grilli , Elena Pisani , Laura Secco

Despite increasing attention and growing evidence of the health benefits of spending time in forests and green spaces (GS), very few studies have attempted to place an economic value on these benefits. The life satisfaction approach represents a promising method of non-market valuation that could capture holistically the health and wellbeing benefits of such environments. Employing primary data from a representative sample of 1400 respondents in Italy, we present value estimates from the life satisfaction approach and the well-established contingent valuation method. We find that visiting forests and GS at least once in the past year is associated with higher life satisfaction. Using the marginal rate of substitution between income and forest/GS visits, our results indicate that an additional €11,171 in annual income would increase life satisfaction by the same amount as visiting forests/GS in the past year. This value is complemented by estimates of stated willingness to pay (WTP) from the same sample using the contingent valuation method. WTP per forest/GS visit is estimated as €18 and aggregate annual values are calculated based on visit frequency. Results from both methods complement each other, providing estimates of both experienced and decision utility, offering more comprehensive information to policy and decision makers. Both methods indicate that forests and green spaces are important contributors to health and wellbeing, associated with significant economic values. This is the first paper to use the life satisfaction approach to value the benefits of forest and GS visits in Italy, making an important contribution to the literature.

尽管越来越多的人关注并有越来越多的证据表明，花时间在森林和绿色空间（GS）对健康有益，但很少有研究试图对这些好处进行经济价值评估。生活满意度方法代表了一种很有前途的非市场评估方法，可以全面捕捉这种环境的健康和福祉效益。采用来自意大利1400名受访者的代表性样本的原始数据，我们从生活满意度方法和完善的条件评估方法中提出价值估计。我们发现，在过去一年中至少参观一次森林和GS与更高的生活满意度相关。使用收入和森林/GS参观之间的边际替代率，我们的结果表明，年收入增加11,171欧元将增加与过去一年参观森林/GS相同的生活满意度。该值由使用或有估价法的同一样本的陈述支付意愿（WTP）估计值补充。每次森林/GS访问的WTP估计为18欧元，年总价值是根据访问频率计算的。两种方法的结果相互补充，提供了经验效用和决策效用的估计，为政策和决策者提供了更全面的信息。这两种方法都表明，森林和绿地是健康和福祉的重要贡献者，具有重要的经济价值。这是第一篇使用生活满意度方法来评估意大利森林和GS访问的好处的论文，对文献做出了重要贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Forest product footprint convergence in the Amazon: A panel data analysis of ACTO countries 亚马逊森林产品足迹趋同：ACTO国家的面板数据分析

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103632

Veli Yilanci, Maxwell Kongkuah

This study examines the convergence of forest product footprints (FPF) among seven Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) countries from 1961 to 2022. The research investigates whether FPF levels are converging or diverging across these nations, which share the Amazon rainforest. Employing a panel unit root test that accounts for smooth and sharp structural breaks, the study identifies both convergence and divergence patterns. Colombia, Ecuador, and Guyana show evidence of convergence, potentially driven by conservation policies and indigenous land management. Conversely, Brazil and Peru demonstrate divergence, likely influenced by extensive agriculture, mining, and international trade in forest products. The findings emphasize the need for coordinated regional policies within ACTO to foster sustainable forest management practices, address divergent national interests, and prioritize environmental conservation in the Amazon.

本研究考察了1961 - 2022年亚马逊合作条约组织（ACTO） 7个成员国森林产品足迹（FPF）的趋同性。这项研究调查了这些共享亚马逊雨林的国家的FPF水平是趋同还是分化。采用面板单位根检验，考虑平滑和尖锐的结构断裂，该研究确定了收敛和发散模式。哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔和圭亚那显示出趋同的迹象，这可能是由保护政策和土著土地管理推动的。相反，巴西和秘鲁表现出差异，可能受到广泛的农业、采矿业和国际林产品贸易的影响。研究结果强调了ACTO内部协调区域政策的必要性，以促进可持续森林管理实践，解决不同的国家利益，并优先考虑亚马逊地区的环境保护。

引用次数: 0

Optimal forest management of Douglas-fir in Western Oregon: Stochastic prices, carbon sequestration and wildfire risk 俄勒冈西部道格拉斯冷杉的最佳森林管理：随机价格、碳固存和野火风险

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103629

Hsu Y. Kyaw , Andres L. Susaeta , Mindy S. Crandall

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests in Western Oregon provide economic and ecological benefits but increasing wildfire risks and timber price fluctuations challenge sustainable management. This study applies reservation price model to assess how these uncertainties affect optimal harvest timing and economic returns in even-aged Douglas-fir plantations. Results indicate that wildfire risk reduces reservation prices by up to 15 %, prompting earlier harvests to minimize losses. Under high wildfire risk (λ = 0.04), optimal harvest age decreases from 65.2 years to approximately 24 years, while land values decline by 50 %, from $14,104/ha to $6414/ha. This decline is steeper than previous estimates, where land values declined between 28.7 % and 41.2 % under wildfire risk scenarios. The larger reduction in this study suggests higher fire arrival rates and salvageable timber may amplify wildfire-induced economic losses. Underage-dependent wildfire risk, land values also decline, from $14,104/ha to $8297.5/ha at λ = 0.04, with mean harvest age decreasing from 65.2 to 33.2 years. Increasing salvageable portions from 30 % to 70 % elevates reservation prices by 5–9 %, mitigating losses. At a carbon price of $35/tCO₂e, optimal rotation age reaches 65.2 years in the absence of wildfire risk. However, it drops to 24.0 years under high constant risk and to 32.4 years under high age-dependent risk, indicating that wildfire risk offsets the rotation-lengthening effect of carbon pricing. These findings underscore the need for adaptive management strategies that integrate wildfire risk and market uncertainty. Policy recommendations include enhanced carbon pricing, improved salvage incentives, and risk-adjusted forest management strategies to sustain long-term economic viability.

俄勒冈州西部的道格拉斯冷杉林提供了经济和生态效益，但不断增加的野火风险和木材价格波动对可持续管理构成挑战。本研究运用保留价格模型来评估这些不确定性如何影响均匀树龄道格拉斯杉木人工林的最佳采收时机和经济回报。结果表明，野火风险使保留区价格降低了15%，促使提前收获以尽量减少损失。在高野火风险（λ = 0.04）下，最佳采收年龄从65.2年下降到约24年，而土地价值下降50%，从$14,104/ha下降到$6414/ha。这一下降幅度比之前的估计要大，在野火风险情景下，土地价值下降了28.7%至41.2%。本研究中较大的减少表明，较高的火灾到达率和可回收木材可能会扩大野火造成的经济损失。在λ = 0.04时，土地价值也从14104美元/公顷下降到8297.5美元/公顷，平均收获年龄从65.2年下降到33.2年。将可回收部分从30%提高到70%，保留价格提高了5 - 9%，减少了损失。当碳价格为35美元/tCO₂e时，在不存在野火风险的情况下，最佳轮作年龄为65.2年。然而，在高恒定风险和高年龄依赖风险下，野火风险降低到24.0年和32.4年，表明野火风险抵消了碳定价的旋转延长效应。这些发现强调了整合野火风险和市场不确定性的适应性管理策略的必要性。政策建议包括提高碳定价、改进救助激励措施和调整风险的森林管理战略，以维持长期经济可行性。

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引用次数: 0

The influence of science within forest policy making - the case of payments for forest ecosystem services for climate-adapted forest management in Germany 科学对森林政策制定的影响——以德国为适应气候变化的森林管理支付森林生态系统服务费用为例

IF 3.8 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103599

Tabea V. Schaefers, Max Krott, Michael Kirchner

Forest science provides extensive scientific information. Its influence on forest-related political decision-making, however, has often proved to be negligible. For this reason, a case study on the payment of forest ecosystem services (PFES) in Germany examines the extent to which other factors influence the political knowledge transfer process and demonstrates, through a power-based definition of actors, the opportunities for political influence of researchers in the political process. An innovative approach for a quantitative analysis of political influence is employed, consisting of the four elements “coercion”, “(dis-) incentives”, “dominant information”, and “scientific information”. Using the newly introduced terms “focused interest” and “focused influence”, a differentiated analysis of the political influence of actors in relation to political issues is enabled. It becomes evident that the use of political influence resources by actors varies between political issues. For greater political impact of scientific information, a stronger consideration of the individual roles of actors and issues is recommended. The study further positions the augmented actor-centered power (ACP) framework vis-à-vis broader power theories and other ACP scholarship, highlighting its distinct suitability for tracing influence in forest policy making.

森林科学提供了广泛的科学信息。然而，它对与森林有关的政治决策的影响往往被证明是微不足道的。因此，对德国森林生态系统服务支付的案例研究考察了其他因素对政治知识转移过程的影响程度，并通过对行为者的基于权力的定义，展示了研究人员在政治过程中施加政治影响的机会。采用了一种创新的方法对政治影响进行定量分析，包括四个要素：“胁迫”、“（不）激励”、“主导信息”和“科学信息”。使用新引入的术语“重点关注”和“重点影响”，可以对行为者在政治问题上的政治影响进行有区别的分析。很明显，行动者利用政治影响力资源的方式因政治问题而异。为了使科学信息产生更大的政治影响，建议更多地考虑行动者的个人角色和问题。该研究进一步将增强的行动者为中心的权力（ACP）框架与-à-vis更广泛的权力理论和其他ACP奖学金相比较，突出了其在追踪森林政策制定影响方面的独特适用性。

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