Automobile dealers form trading relationships in order to satisfy uncertain demand (Anupindi, Bassok and Zemel 2001; Granot and Sosic 2003; Pairolero 2016). This paper explores the decision to transship inventory in terms of sales associate ability or experience. The primary result is that an inexperienced sales associates should never offer the trade because of his inability to extract enough consumer value. As the sales associate gains experience through selling the models in stock, negotiating ability is likely to increase and the ability to extract consumer value in trade increases. Since higher negotiating ability in trade increases trade profitability, trade is more likely to be optimal for experienced sales associates. The results of this paper could be used to advise sales managers on the training of new sales associates in industries utilizing transshipment networks.
汽车经销商形成交易关系是为了满足不确定的需求(Anupindi, Bassok和Zemel 2001;Granot and Sosic 2003;Pairolero 2016)。本文从销售助理能力或经验的角度探讨了库存转运决策。主要的结果是，一个没有经验的销售助理永远不应该提供贸易，因为他无法提取足够的消费者价值。随着销售人员通过销售库存车型获得经验，谈判能力可能会提高，在贸易中提取消费者价值的能力也会提高。由于较高的贸易谈判能力增加了贸易利润，贸易更可能是最优的经验丰富的销售人员。本文的结果可用于建议销售经理在利用转运网络的行业中培训新的销售助理。
{"title":"Sales Strategy in Transshipment Networks","authors":"Nicholas A. Pairolero","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2715498","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2715498","url":null,"abstract":"Automobile dealers form trading relationships in order to satisfy uncertain demand (Anupindi, Bassok and Zemel 2001; Granot and Sosic 2003; Pairolero 2016). This paper explores the decision to transship inventory in terms of sales associate ability or experience. The primary result is that an inexperienced sales associates should never offer the trade because of his inability to extract enough consumer value. As the sales associate gains experience through selling the models in stock, negotiating ability is likely to increase and the ability to extract consumer value in trade increases. Since higher negotiating ability in trade increases trade profitability, trade is more likely to be optimal for experienced sales associates. The results of this paper could be used to advise sales managers on the training of new sales associates in industries utilizing transshipment networks.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77712728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Performance-based contracting is gaining widespread acceptance in supply chains where moral hazard might prevent either or both supply chain entities from exerting the first-best effort that improves supply chain outcomes. We analyze the use of delayed payments as a performance-based contract when supply chain payoffs are lead time dependent. The buyer's margin depends on lead time which is governed by costly supplier effort. For a cash-constrained supplier, the delayed payment offered by the buyer (principal) raises the possibility of bankruptcy and incentivizes the supplier (agent) to exert effort. We study the optimal balance between moral hazard and bankruptcy risk in the context of a delayed payment contract whose objective is to reduce the lead time from supplier to buyer. Modeling the buyer--supplier interaction as an infinite--horizon principal--agent game, we find that suppliers with high cost of effort are able to use the threat of bankruptcy to extract better payment terms from the buyer. Further, these suppliers also exert less effort than what would be optimal for the supply chain as a whole. We show that a payment structure that involves a bonus payment for timely delivery combined with a delayed payment coordinates the supply chain. This payment structure effectively implies buyer cost-sharing in the supplier's effort, contingent on adequate supplier performance. Our results provide buyers with a roadmap on when and how to implement delayed payments as a function of different supplier parameters such as the cost of operational effort and the wholesale price.
{"title":"Delayed Payments as Performance-based Contracts","authors":"Sripad K. Devalkar, R. Bala","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2715434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2715434","url":null,"abstract":"Performance-based contracting is gaining widespread acceptance in supply chains where moral hazard might prevent either or both supply chain entities from exerting the first-best effort that improves supply chain outcomes. We analyze the use of delayed payments as a performance-based contract when supply chain payoffs are lead time dependent. The buyer's margin depends on lead time which is governed by costly supplier effort. For a cash-constrained supplier, the delayed payment offered by the buyer (principal) raises the possibility of bankruptcy and incentivizes the supplier (agent) to exert effort. We study the optimal balance between moral hazard and bankruptcy risk in the context of a delayed payment contract whose objective is to reduce the lead time from supplier to buyer. Modeling the buyer--supplier interaction as an infinite--horizon principal--agent game, we find that suppliers with high cost of effort are able to use the threat of bankruptcy to extract better payment terms from the buyer. Further, these suppliers also exert less effort than what would be optimal for the supply chain as a whole. We show that a payment structure that involves a bonus payment for timely delivery combined with a delayed payment coordinates the supply chain. This payment structure effectively implies buyer cost-sharing in the supplier's effort, contingent on adequate supplier performance. Our results provide buyers with a roadmap on when and how to implement delayed payments as a function of different supplier parameters such as the cost of operational effort and the wholesale price.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90188167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The production process is vital in any manufacturing environment. Thus, the time taken for the production process needs to be planned, monitored and controlled. But production process is a complex process with many sub processes, thus can be hard to monitor and control. This study describes the process of developing and implementing a real time production tracking and decision support system for a leading apparel company (PTDSS), specifically for tracking the job cards of a production sample room. In this paper the authors present the methodology used for production planning, process tracking and the analytical tool pack designed and developed as part of the decision support system. The detailed of the system design and development with the technologies used with respect to the implementation will be elaborated in the subsequent sections. The PTDSS uses barcode tracking technology to trace and monitor the production process along with a mobile application developed on Android platform. The key findings of this research include novel approach in selecting the wide variety of technologies used to plan, track and control the production process of a sample room and the decision supper nature embedded by providing Visual Basic for Application (VBA) based analytical dashboard. The PTDSS has successfully passed the trials at the actual go-live and has enhanced the visibility of the sample production process and reduced the time taken for the sample production process to complete. Finally, the article discusses the possible future expansions to the PTDSS itself and research direction in the production tracking and decision support systems for apparel industry as a whole.
生产过程在任何制造环境中都是至关重要的。因此，需要计划、监视和控制生产过程所需的时间。但生产过程是一个复杂的过程，有许多子过程，因此很难监测和控制。本研究描述了为一家领先的服装公司(PTDSS)开发和实施实时生产跟踪和决策支持系统的过程，特别是用于跟踪生产样品室的工作卡。在本文中，作者介绍了用于生产计划，过程跟踪和分析工具包的设计和开发作为决策支持系统的一部分的方法。系统设计和开发的细节以及与实现相关的技术将在随后的章节中详细阐述。PTDSS使用条形码跟踪技术跟踪和监控生产过程，并在Android平台上开发移动应用程序。本研究的主要发现包括选择用于规划、跟踪和控制样品室生产过程的各种技术的新方法，以及通过提供基于Visual Basic for Application (VBA)的分析仪表板嵌入的决策特性。PTDSS已经成功地通过了实际运行的试验，提高了样品生产过程的可见性，减少了样品生产过程完成所需的时间。最后，本文讨论了PTDSS在服装行业生产跟踪和决策支持系统中可能的扩展和研究方向。
{"title":"A Real Time Production Tracking and a Decision Support System (PTDSS): A Case Study from an Apparel Company","authors":"P. Cooray, T. Rupasinghe","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2706999","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2706999","url":null,"abstract":"The production process is vital in any manufacturing environment. Thus, the time taken for the production process needs to be planned, monitored and controlled. But production process is a complex process with many sub processes, thus can be hard to monitor and control. This study describes the process of developing and implementing a real time production tracking and decision support system for a leading apparel company (PTDSS), specifically for tracking the job cards of a production sample room. In this paper the authors present the methodology used for production planning, process tracking and the analytical tool pack designed and developed as part of the decision support system. The detailed of the system design and development with the technologies used with respect to the implementation will be elaborated in the subsequent sections. The PTDSS uses barcode tracking technology to trace and monitor the production process along with a mobile application developed on Android platform. The key findings of this research include novel approach in selecting the wide variety of technologies used to plan, track and control the production process of a sample room and the decision supper nature embedded by providing Visual Basic for Application (VBA) based analytical dashboard. The PTDSS has successfully passed the trials at the actual go-live and has enhanced the visibility of the sample production process and reduced the time taken for the sample production process to complete. Finally, the article discusses the possible future expansions to the PTDSS itself and research direction in the production tracking and decision support systems for apparel industry as a whole.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85327732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the long-run economic effects of large natural resource endowments, through a comparative quantitative case study. Focusing on three economic features of the so-called Nordic model, namely low income inequality, high labour productivity growth, and high welfare spending, this study estimates the shocks to these key features in Norway after the country became one of the world's largest oil exporters. A synthetic control unit constructed by weighting Nordic countries that closely resemble the economy of Norway without being oil producers provides the most reliable comparison unit to estimate the causal effects constituting the paper's threefold contribution. First, results show that the resource windfall contributed to relatively higher top income shares, adding natural resources to the set of drivers of income inequality in Norway. Second, the resource windfall boosted labour productivity. Third, resource revenues contributed to financing the steadily increasing gap between Norway and other Nordic countries in the degree of welfare generosity, with generosity increasing in Norway relative to the others. Sensitivity tests through in-time placebo tests and difference-in-differences estimations confirm the validity of these results.
{"title":"The Nordic Model and the Oil Nation","authors":"R. Iacono","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2703816","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2703816","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the long-run economic effects of large natural resource endowments, through a comparative quantitative case study. Focusing on three economic features of the so-called Nordic model, namely low income inequality, high labour productivity growth, and high welfare spending, this study estimates the shocks to these key features in Norway after the country became one of the world's largest oil exporters. A synthetic control unit constructed by weighting Nordic countries that closely resemble the economy of Norway without being oil producers provides the most reliable comparison unit to estimate the causal effects constituting the paper's threefold contribution. First, results show that the resource windfall contributed to relatively higher top income shares, adding natural resources to the set of drivers of income inequality in Norway. Second, the resource windfall boosted labour productivity. Third, resource revenues contributed to financing the steadily increasing gap between Norway and other Nordic countries in the degree of welfare generosity, with generosity increasing in Norway relative to the others. Sensitivity tests through in-time placebo tests and difference-in-differences estimations confirm the validity of these results.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75225684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In late 2014-early 2015, retail and wholesale trade, the one of the biggest sector of Russian economy , longer than others ‘put up resistance’ to the negative macroeconomic trends and showed an increase, however small, in commodity turnover. Meanwhile, in the autumn of 2015, in spite of a relative stabilization of Russian terms of trade and foreign exchange rate dynamics, commodity turnover in Russia experienced its sharpest downfall since 2000. This phenomenon is largely explained by the delayed pass-through effect of the ruble’s exchange rate fluctuations into commodity prices and by the gradual adaptation of households to new permanent income.
{"title":"Commodity Turnover: A Delayed Fall","authors":"G. Idrisov, Yuriy Ponomarev","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2701757","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2701757","url":null,"abstract":"In late 2014-early 2015, retail and wholesale trade, the one of the biggest sector of Russian economy , longer than others ‘put up resistance’ to the negative macroeconomic trends and showed an increase, however small, in commodity turnover. Meanwhile, in the autumn of 2015, in spite of a relative stabilization of Russian terms of trade and foreign exchange rate dynamics, commodity turnover in Russia experienced its sharpest downfall since 2000. This phenomenon is largely explained by the delayed pass-through effect of the ruble’s exchange rate fluctuations into commodity prices and by the gradual adaptation of households to new permanent income.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84470213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the impact of growing e‐car deployment on global crude oil demand, by determining the impact factors of total vehicles‐in‐use. It further sets out the impact on global fuel consumption and global crude oil demand. Both effects are compared with a benchmark scenario excluding e‐car deployment. A 25‐year simulation of the three different demand functions is performed and finds significant impact on fuel demand, but less significant impact on crude oil demand, since gasoline is just a partial fraction of crude oil and most of global crude oil demand depends on global economic development. The conclusion of this paper is that we find fuel demand to peak earliest in 2021, followed by a subsequent decline to today's levels, assuming that e‐car market share development follows a Rayleigh distribution. Based on a car manufacturer survey by KPMG, which indicates a 10 per cent e‐car market share in 10 years, the e‐car sales function is adapted to this estimation. At the same time, global crude oil demand is found to peak in 2025 in case of 10 per cent e‐car market share, in 2026 in the case of 8 per cent e‐car market share and in 2030 in case of a 6 per cent e‐car market share in 10 years. Until 2040, the increase in crude oil demand is found to be 25 per cent slower in the 10 per cent market share case, 20 per cent slower in the 8 per cent market share case and 15 per cent slower in the 6 per cent market share case than compared with global crude oil demand without any e‐cars deployed.
{"title":"The Impact of E‐Car Deployment on Global Crude Oil Demand","authors":"S. Unger","doi":"10.1111/opec.12067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12067","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of growing e‐car deployment on global crude oil demand, by determining the impact factors of total vehicles‐in‐use. It further sets out the impact on global fuel consumption and global crude oil demand. Both effects are compared with a benchmark scenario excluding e‐car deployment. A 25‐year simulation of the three different demand functions is performed and finds significant impact on fuel demand, but less significant impact on crude oil demand, since gasoline is just a partial fraction of crude oil and most of global crude oil demand depends on global economic development. The conclusion of this paper is that we find fuel demand to peak earliest in 2021, followed by a subsequent decline to today's levels, assuming that e‐car market share development follows a Rayleigh distribution. Based on a car manufacturer survey by KPMG, which indicates a 10 per cent e‐car market share in 10 years, the e‐car sales function is adapted to this estimation. At the same time, global crude oil demand is found to peak in 2025 in case of 10 per cent e‐car market share, in 2026 in the case of 8 per cent e‐car market share and in 2030 in case of a 6 per cent e‐car market share in 10 years. Until 2040, the increase in crude oil demand is found to be 25 per cent slower in the 10 per cent market share case, 20 per cent slower in the 8 per cent market share case and 15 per cent slower in the 6 per cent market share case than compared with global crude oil demand without any e‐cars deployed.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84990893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The study compiles 22 firm-specific case studies which show the importance of manufacturing-related services in global value chains. The interviewed firms, based in 12 APEC economies, come from different sectors ranging from multinational automotive and construction equipment manufacturers to electrical appliances and watch manufacturing. It analyses what specific services are important in which stage of the value chain, and whether they are typically provided in-house or outsourced. The study contributes to the current discussions on ‘servicification’ of manufacturing by which services have increased its importance and value in manufacturing products, so much so that some manufacturing companies are, arguably, virtually service companies. The studies also present the importance of economic policies in shaping firms’ configurations, operations, and location of global value chains.
{"title":"Services in Global Value Chains: Manufacturing-Related Services","authors":"P. Low, G. Pasadilla","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2698977","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2698977","url":null,"abstract":"The study compiles 22 firm-specific case studies which show the importance of manufacturing-related services in global value chains. The interviewed firms, based in 12 APEC economies, come from different sectors ranging from multinational automotive and construction equipment manufacturers to electrical appliances and watch manufacturing. It analyses what specific services are important in which stage of the value chain, and whether they are typically provided in-house or outsourced. The study contributes to the current discussions on ‘servicification’ of manufacturing by which services have increased its importance and value in manufacturing products, so much so that some manufacturing companies are, arguably, virtually service companies. The studies also present the importance of economic policies in shaping firms’ configurations, operations, and location of global value chains.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91283400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Observable priority queues are prevalent in practice and create incentives for utility-maximizing customers to abandon after joining. However, the literature has so far ignored this behavior and the resulting system control issues. This paper studies the rational abandonment behavior of utility-maximizing customers in the context of an observable two-class priority queue, and identifies novel implications. We characterize the equilibrium abandonment strategy of low-priority customers and show that it has a threshold structure that depends on the fee structure. We then consider pricing as a means to control the balking and abandonment behavior, both under welfare maximization and revenue maximization. Our pricing results highlight the importance of the timing of payments. We show that welfare-maximization requires charging only a service fee and no entrance fee. In contrast, revenue maximization generally requires a combination of both an entrance and a service fee. This two-fee structure is equivalent to charging only upon entrance but offering a partial cancellation refund. Moreover, charging only an entrance fee may generate more or less revenue than charging only a service fee, but the performance of the latter policy is more robust. This appears to be the first paper that (i) gives an analytical characterization of equilibrium abandonment behavior in observable priority queues, and (ii) studies pricing for any queueing system in presence of rational customer abandonment.
{"title":"Rational Abandonment from Priority Queues: Equilibrium Strategy and Pricing Implications","authors":"Philipp Afèche, Vahid Sarhangian","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2679328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2679328","url":null,"abstract":"Observable priority queues are prevalent in practice and create incentives for utility-maximizing customers to abandon after joining. However, the literature has so far ignored this behavior and the resulting system control issues. This paper studies the rational abandonment behavior of utility-maximizing customers in the context of an observable two-class priority queue, and identifies novel implications. We characterize the equilibrium abandonment strategy of low-priority customers and show that it has a threshold structure that depends on the fee structure. We then consider pricing as a means to control the balking and abandonment behavior, both under welfare maximization and revenue maximization. Our pricing results highlight the importance of the timing of payments. We show that welfare-maximization requires charging only a service fee and no entrance fee. In contrast, revenue maximization generally requires a combination of both an entrance and a service fee. This two-fee structure is equivalent to charging only upon entrance but offering a partial cancellation refund. Moreover, charging only an entrance fee may generate more or less revenue than charging only a service fee, but the performance of the latter policy is more robust. This appears to be the first paper that (i) gives an analytical characterization of equilibrium abandonment behavior in observable priority queues, and (ii) studies pricing for any queueing system in presence of rational customer abandonment.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79272283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study will focus on investigating the effects of crude oil and gold prices on implied inflation expectation. “Crude oil is arguably one of the single most important driving forces of the global economy, and changes in the price of oil have significant effects on economic growth and welfare around the world” (Rentschler, 2014). Gold prices attract considerable attention as potential predictor of inflation as well. The study reveals that crude oil prices are positively and significantly related to inflation, while the link between gold and inflation proves to be very limited. The process of inflation expectation as a function of oil and gold prices is subject to some pronounced ARCH type shocks but it is not very persistent. Based on the results of conducted research I conclude that implied inflation expectations are correlated with high oil prices.
{"title":"Commodity Pricing and Inflation Expectations","authors":"M. Sywak","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2676368","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2676368","url":null,"abstract":"This study will focus on investigating the effects of crude oil and gold prices on implied inflation expectation. “Crude oil is arguably one of the single most important driving forces of the global economy, and changes in the price of oil have significant effects on economic growth and welfare around the world” (Rentschler, 2014). Gold prices attract considerable attention as potential predictor of inflation as well. The study reveals that crude oil prices are positively and significantly related to inflation, while the link between gold and inflation proves to be very limited. The process of inflation expectation as a function of oil and gold prices is subject to some pronounced ARCH type shocks but it is not very persistent. Based on the results of conducted research I conclude that implied inflation expectations are correlated with high oil prices.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78559478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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