The oil output cut agreement between some OPEC and non-OPEC countries, including Russia, pushed global crude oil prices to USD 50–55 a barrel in the first few months of 2017. The oil output boost in the United States and in some other countries has become an increasingly greater challenge which can neutralize the effect of the agreement. The global market is volatile, and there are risks that crude oil prices will plunge.
{"title":"Global Oil Market: Main Trends","authors":"Yuri Bobylev","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3001766","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3001766","url":null,"abstract":"The oil output cut agreement between some OPEC and non-OPEC countries, including Russia, pushed global crude oil prices to USD 50–55 a barrel in the first few months of 2017. The oil output boost in the United States and in some other countries has become an increasingly greater challenge which can neutralize the effect of the agreement. The global market is volatile, and there are risks that crude oil prices will plunge.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79579884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper reviews the operations of the oil downstream sector in Ghana by appraising the industry report for 2016. It identifies some challenges of the sector and proffer solutions to ameliorate them. Among the recommendations include the payment of BDC debt by government and OMCs to create enough fiscal space to enhance their operations.
{"title":"Strengthening Ghana’s Downstream Petroleum Deregulation Regime: A Review of the 2016 CBOD Industry Report.","authors":"G. Ofosu-Peasah, I. Ackah","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2966929","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2966929","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reviews the operations of the oil downstream sector in Ghana by appraising the industry report for 2016. It identifies some challenges of the sector and proffer solutions to ameliorate them. \u0000Among the recommendations include the payment of BDC debt by government and OMCs to create enough fiscal space to enhance their operations.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"122 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88041872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Spanish Abstract: La prediccion de los precios de las materias primas es importante por su impacto a nivel macroeconomico en las naciones que dependen de su comercio internacional, asi mismo tiene importancia financiera para quienes negocian sus futuros en bolsa. Este trabajo propone evaluar la hipotesis de eficiencia en el sentido debil en el mercado de metales, la cual argumenta que un mercado eficiente no es susceptible de prediccion de precios. Para este proposito se implementaron metodos de caminata aleatoria. Se encontraron materias primas persistentemente ineficientes durante el periodo de evaluacion de 1992 a 2015, asi como que algunas materias primas fluctuan entre periodos de eficiencia y no eficiencia. English Abstract: The prediction of raw material prices is important due to its macroeconomic impact in the nations that depend on their international trade, it is as well financially important to those who negotiate futures in the stock market. This work proposes to evaluate the efficiency hypothesis in the weak sense of the metals market, which argues that an efficient market is not susceptible to price prediction. To carry out this purpose, methods of random walks were put into effect. Persistently inefficient raw materials during the evaluation period from 1992 to 2015 were found, as well as that some raw materials fluctuate between periods of efficiency and inefficiency.
{"title":"¿Es El Mercado De Metales Eficiente? (Is the Metals Market Efficient?)","authors":"D. Osorio, Girón Luis Eduardo, Lya Sierra","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2956657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2956657","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: La prediccion de los precios de las materias primas es importante por su impacto a nivel macroeconomico en las naciones que dependen de su comercio internacional, asi mismo tiene importancia financiera para quienes negocian sus futuros en bolsa. Este trabajo propone evaluar la hipotesis de eficiencia en el sentido debil en el mercado de metales, la cual argumenta que un mercado eficiente no es susceptible de prediccion de precios. Para este proposito se implementaron metodos de caminata aleatoria. Se encontraron materias primas persistentemente ineficientes durante el periodo de evaluacion de 1992 a 2015, asi como que algunas materias primas fluctuan entre periodos de eficiencia y no eficiencia. \u0000English Abstract: The prediction of raw material prices is important due to its macroeconomic impact in the nations that depend on their international trade, it is as well financially important to those who negotiate futures in the stock market. This work proposes to evaluate the efficiency hypothesis in the weak sense of the metals market, which argues that an efficient market is not susceptible to price prediction. To carry out this purpose, methods of random walks were put into effect. Persistently inefficient raw materials during the evaluation period from 1992 to 2015 were found, as well as that some raw materials fluctuate between periods of efficiency and inefficiency.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75725629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use variance decompositions from high-dimensional vector autoregressions to characterize connectedness in 19 key commodity return volatilities, 2011-2016. We study both static (full-sample) and dynamic (rolling-sample) connectedness. We summarize and visualize the results using tools from network analysis. The results reveal clear clustering of commodities into groups that match traditional industry groupings, but with some notable differences. The energy sector is most important in terms of sending shocks to others, and energy, industrial metals, and precious metals are themselves tightly connected.
{"title":"Commodity Connectedness","authors":"F. Diebold, L. Liu, K. Yilmaz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3038826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3038826","url":null,"abstract":"We use variance decompositions from high-dimensional vector autoregressions to characterize connectedness in 19 key commodity return volatilities, 2011-2016. We study both static (full-sample) and dynamic (rolling-sample) connectedness. We summarize and visualize the results using tools from network analysis. The results reveal clear clustering of commodities into groups that match traditional industry groupings, but with some notable differences. The energy sector is most important in terms of sending shocks to others, and energy, industrial metals, and precious metals are themselves tightly connected.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84479772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we use the copula model so as to compute the Optimal Hedge Ratio. Hedging with OTC markets is probably the most common way of managing risk, and much research has been done within this field. Our investigation contributes to the current literature insofar as we aim to hedge Credit Default Swaps using two major commodities (gold and oil). The data sets are of daily frequency, comprising the period from 06/27/2008 to 02/24/2016 for a total of 1925 observations. These observations were divided into three subsamples: the global financial crisis (06/27/2008 to 12/31/2009), the sovereign debt crisis in Europe (01/04/2010 to 12/31/2012) and the post-crisis period (01/02/2013 to 02/24/2016). Results show that adding gold into the CDSs portfolios may enhance the risk-adjusted performance. In addition, investors should hold gold than oil in order to reduce the risk of their investment.
{"title":"What Relationships between Commodities and CDS Indices? Evidence from Archimedean Copulas","authors":"Samar Zlitni, Ahmed Ghorbel, W. Khoufi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2924327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2924327","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we use the copula model so as to compute the Optimal Hedge Ratio. Hedging with OTC markets is probably the most common way of managing risk, and much research has been done within this field. Our investigation contributes to the current literature insofar as we aim to hedge Credit Default Swaps using two major commodities (gold and oil). The data sets are of daily frequency, comprising the period from 06/27/2008 to 02/24/2016 for a total of 1925 observations. These observations were divided into three subsamples: the global financial crisis (06/27/2008 to 12/31/2009), the sovereign debt crisis in Europe (01/04/2010 to 12/31/2012) and the post-crisis period (01/02/2013 to 02/24/2016). Results show that adding gold into the CDSs portfolios may enhance the risk-adjusted performance. In addition, investors should hold gold than oil in order to reduce the risk of their investment.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"85 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74270816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-01-01DOI: 10.5089/9781475572360.001
Rabah Arezki, D. Laxton, A. Matsumoto, A. Nurbekyan, Hou Wang, Jiaxiong Yao
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
{"title":"Oil Prices and the Global Economy","authors":"Rabah Arezki, D. Laxton, A. Matsumoto, A. Nurbekyan, Hou Wang, Jiaxiong Yao","doi":"10.5089/9781475572360.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475572360.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80714766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We present a comprehensive study for the optimal sourcing strategy of a firm where the market selling price is endogenously determined by the total output and suppliers face correlated disruptions that are difficult to estimate. We develop a distributionally robust (DR) model for a single group of correlated suppliers that maximizes the firms' expected profit under the worst-case disruption distribution. Our model only requires the marginal disruption probabilities and accommodates both yield and capacity uncertainty. We derive simple expressions that allow the firm to eliminate less reliable suppliers on the combined basis of cost and reliability when yield is uncertain. In the case capacity uncertainty, we show the cheapest supplier influences the orders placed with more reliable suppliers, if the cheapest supplier receives no order. We incorporate the DR model in a more general model where the available suppliers are grouped based on common sources of vulnerability. This model accommodates cases where correlations exist between all or no suppliers as special cases. The model allows decision-makers to tailor the sourcing strategy based on their risk tolerance. We introduce new measures for supplier efficiency that accounts for both supplier costs and reliabilities. These measures are incorporated in a solution procedure that provides the optimal supplier selection and order allocation. The measure of efficiency serves as an extension of the commonly cited insight that "cost is an order qualifier and reliability is an order winner" for the case of correlated suppliers. We end the paper by studying the impact of buyer competition on the optimal sourcing strategy. We present equilibrium solutions for cases of symmetric information and study the information sharing behavior of a better-informed firm under information asymmetry.
{"title":"Optimal Sourcing with Ambiguously Correlated Suppliers","authors":"Ming Zhao, Nickolas K. Freeman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2851228","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2851228","url":null,"abstract":"We present a comprehensive study for the optimal sourcing strategy of a firm where the market selling price is endogenously determined by the total output and suppliers face correlated disruptions that are difficult to estimate. We develop a distributionally robust (DR) model for a single group of correlated suppliers that maximizes the firms' expected profit under the worst-case disruption distribution. Our model only requires the marginal disruption probabilities and accommodates both yield and capacity uncertainty. We derive simple expressions that allow the firm to eliminate less reliable suppliers on the combined basis of cost and reliability when yield is uncertain. In the case capacity uncertainty, we show the cheapest supplier influences the orders placed with more reliable suppliers, if the cheapest supplier receives no order. We incorporate the DR model in a more general model where the available suppliers are grouped based on common sources of vulnerability. This model accommodates cases where correlations exist between all or no suppliers as special cases. The model allows decision-makers to tailor the sourcing strategy based on their risk tolerance. We introduce new measures for supplier efficiency that accounts for both supplier costs and reliabilities. These measures are incorporated in a solution procedure that provides the optimal supplier selection and order allocation. The measure of efficiency serves as an extension of the commonly cited insight that \"cost is an order qualifier and reliability is an order winner\" for the case of correlated suppliers. We end the paper by studying the impact of buyer competition on the optimal sourcing strategy. We present equilibrium solutions for cases of symmetric information and study the information sharing behavior of a better-informed firm under information asymmetry.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85337526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This analysis examines the relationship between nonrenewable resource dependence, economic growth and income inequality. It uses a two-equation system in which the Gini index and GDP per capita are the dependent variables and the stock of nonrenewable resources as a share of national wealth -- i.e. resource dependence -- is the independent variable. Using a dataset that includes information on 43 countries from 1980 to 2012, this paper estimates several model specifications in order to check the robustness of the results under different assumptions and to account for income-group-related heterogeneity among countries. The baseline model provides strong evidence that natural resource dependence is negatively correlated with both per capita GDP and the Gini index; in other words, resource dependence is associated with lower income levels, but also with a more equal distribution of income. Interestingly, however, after controlling for country income group, the sign and magnitude of these relationships appear to become dependent on national-level structural characteristics. Among higher-income countries, greater nonrenewable natural resource dependence is associated with lower income inequality, while there is no statistically significant correlation with GDP per capita. Among the lower-income group, greater dependence on nonrenewable natural resources is associated with both higher levels of income inequality and lower per capita GDP. Further analysis focusing on a subsample of non-renewable resource rich countries confirms these findings.
{"title":"Nonrenewable Resources, Income Inequality and Per Capita GDP: An Empirical Analysis","authors":"A. Scognamillo, Gianluca Mele, L. Sensini","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-7831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7831","url":null,"abstract":"This analysis examines the relationship between nonrenewable resource dependence, economic growth and income inequality. It uses a two-equation system in which the Gini index and GDP per capita are the dependent variables and the stock of nonrenewable resources as a share of national wealth -- i.e. resource dependence -- is the independent variable. Using a dataset that includes information on 43 countries from 1980 to 2012, this paper estimates several model specifications in order to check the robustness of the results under different assumptions and to account for income-group-related heterogeneity among countries. The baseline model provides strong evidence that natural resource dependence is negatively correlated with both per capita GDP and the Gini index; in other words, resource dependence is associated with lower income levels, but also with a more equal distribution of income. Interestingly, however, after controlling for country income group, the sign and magnitude of these relationships appear to become dependent on national-level structural characteristics. Among higher-income countries, greater nonrenewable natural resource dependence is associated with lower income inequality, while there is no statistically significant correlation with GDP per capita. Among the lower-income group, greater dependence on nonrenewable natural resources is associated with both higher levels of income inequality and lower per capita GDP. Further analysis focusing on a subsample of non-renewable resource rich countries confirms these findings.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89683325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In order to understand swing production and the role of credit, this working paper will briefly cover the following five topics: (1) The paper begins with the classic definition of a swing producer and notes that North American shale producers would not normally fit this strict definition. (2) Next the article argues that advances in well-production estimation techniques naturally led to an explosion of creative financing solutions for investing in shale. As a result, the appetite of credit markets for taking on shale-production risk is now the key driver of the outlook for North American oil production. (3) The paper then proposes that we might be able to refer to shale producers as swing producers as long as we loosen the definition of swing producer to be one in which there are fairly uniform production decisions that take place over a 6-month to 12-month timeframe. And importantly, the outlook for this year’s U.S. oil production declines is likely key to whether global oil markets rebalance or not. (4) Next the article notes that while our short-term focus is properly on the credit cycle, at some point it may be that geological constraints will come back into play and the baton would thereby pass back to the Middle East Gulf oil producers as the undisputed swing producers. (5) Because the timing of the recovery of oil prices is so uncertain, the paper concludes that an investor should only express a bullish view on oil prices within the context of a balanced asset allocation.
{"title":"Swing Oil Production and the Role of Credit: A Synthesis of Best-in-Class Research Views","authors":"H. Till","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2795183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2795183","url":null,"abstract":"In order to understand swing production and the role of credit, this working paper will briefly cover the following five topics: (1) The paper begins with the classic definition of a swing producer and notes that North American shale producers would not normally fit this strict definition. (2) Next the article argues that advances in well-production estimation techniques naturally led to an explosion of creative financing solutions for investing in shale. As a result, the appetite of credit markets for taking on shale-production risk is now the key driver of the outlook for North American oil production. (3) The paper then proposes that we might be able to refer to shale producers as swing producers as long as we loosen the definition of swing producer to be one in which there are fairly uniform production decisions that take place over a 6-month to 12-month timeframe. And importantly, the outlook for this year’s U.S. oil production declines is likely key to whether global oil markets rebalance or not. (4) Next the article notes that while our short-term focus is properly on the credit cycle, at some point it may be that geological constraints will come back into play and the baton would thereby pass back to the Middle East Gulf oil producers as the undisputed swing producers. (5) Because the timing of the recovery of oil prices is so uncertain, the paper concludes that an investor should only express a bullish view on oil prices within the context of a balanced asset allocation.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72905623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-05-13DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-46889-1_26
H. Zimmermann, Marco Haase
{"title":"The Development of Organized Commodity Exchanges in Africa: An Economic Analysis","authors":"H. Zimmermann, Marco Haase","doi":"10.1007/978-3-319-46889-1_26","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-46889-1_26","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88441953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：